Mo'ili'ili Quarry

Confiscation & Inflation

2012-01-18T15:31:00.000-10:00

30 years plus have passed, but this film captures the same issues yanking the global fiat lie today. Silver Shield (Chris Duane) posted this on his site a couple of days ago. Just saw it today.

Fiat slavery in play, of course

2012-01-18T04:28:00.000-10:00

Nigel tells the truth, Euro Union keeps marching toward that pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. What happens when they find that pot empty?

Nose to the grindstone

2012-01-16T23:11:00.000-10:00

Wow it's been forever. I haven't missed the market one bit. Haven't known if I've missed rallies or downswings. Had plenty enough to keep me busy through the holiday season, and work has been the usual heavy load. But it's time to do some catching up. For someone like me who hasn't kept up with the Euro debt (death) spiral and the latest shenanigans stateside, it's a refreshing taste of news that I'll dab into this week, little by little. I don't expect to bet on anything real soon, unless gold and silver take a nosedive and bargain prices are available.

Here's some perspective from one of the best, streetmoney21.

FAS vs FAZ

2011-12-09T02:55:00.001-10:00

It's been just a few days, hasn't it, since I last cared to gaze at a chart of the busty bosom of FAS (in the concupiscence of the banking beasts) nor at the languishing carcass of FAZ, which appears to be drawing its final breaths.

Naturally, this is wrong. FAZ has been at 35 before, and at 39 currently, I'd be a buyer rather than a seller if I were prone to fits of stupidity. How else to explain an attempt to outswim the sharks who run the global ponzi scheme? And yet, the pilot fishes survive, don't they? They eke out a living, an existence in the ecosystem, by pandering and gliding through liquid jet streams, mirroring the great white shark.

I haven't lost a single hour of sleep in two, almost three weeks. All because I've focused on a heavy workload, moments of peaceful bliss near and far, and the simple harmony of friendships. Fuck this market. When it's time to return, I'll be ready. Until then, life beckons. And life, as you should know, is too damn short to fuss over the whims of chimps holding puppet strings.

Carry on.

FAZ is cranky as a teething baby, but giving a good fight.

A huge move from 38 to 41 yesterday, but dipping in premarket.

The trendlines are at the same degree of ups and downs on this

chart, which tells me nothing more than the severity of emotion

from a wickedly fearful market.

FAS remains a roller coaster. As with FAZ, these trendlines

are identical up and identical down going back to early Oct.

Narrow, yes, but completely trending with every

shift of the bandwagon.

Staying clear. All cash. Bleacher section ZZ, Row A, Seat 5.

As always, whatever ails you and furrows your brow, step back, sit down, breathe . . . it's ok to relax for a minute. At least a minute.

FAS vs FAZ

2011-11-22T17:15:00.001-10:00

5:15 p.m. Kept tabs on the market this morning. Surprised the IMF's announcement didn't kick-start the market much more. Lack of liquidity is hurting bulls. No real solutions in sight, as expected. But still, I expected the banksters to do more at this point. We'll see. Still all cash and watching from afar.

FAZ daily

So much for falling off a cliff, for FAZ is back

FAZ daily

Piercing through the upper trendline, but for how long?

FAZ daily

Declining volume, tough to see FAZ staying above 50

without a retest first

FAS daily

Really, what a disappointment for bankster bulls

FAS daily

That gap down yesterday and today's sluggish trading, not good

FAS daily

Volume in FAS fairly strong, which tells me that FAZ's rise has

everything to do with outflows and pullouts from finnie stocks, re: BAC

AGQ daily

Not sold on silver spot price and the 3x ETN, but this is significant

AGQ daily

Rising volume. rising price in a down market

DGP daily

Not as perky as silver/AGQ today

DGP daily

So-so volume

DGP daily

Hanging man candle on the gold 2x ETN not a good sign

Monday cinema & library

2011-11-21T15:49:00.001-10:00

Blogs
Open Secrets: 15 Tea Party caucus freshmen rake in $3.5 million (Nov 21)
Le Fly: Prepare for the Dark Ages (Nov 21)
Cain Thaler: The commentators are sheer idiots (Nov 21)
Le Fly: Feel my rage (Nov 21)
Le Fly: Nothing to be thankful for (Nov 21)
Cain Thaler: Today has the makings of a washout (Nov 21)
Golden Truth: MF Global trustee: $1.2 billion missing (Nov 21)
Scott Bleier: Psycho killer (Nov 18)

Vlogs

bigdad06: Bite this apple Jamie! (Nov 21)
streetmoney21: CME lost all credibility (Nov 21)
RT: Guest John Perkins (Nov 21)
Christopher Greene: Expect bank runs and global war in 2012 (Nov 21)
ScrapGoldBusiness: Commodity broker leaves for ethical concerns! (Nov 21)

Mainstream
Bloomberg: CME may face 'liability' in MF Global disclosure (Nov 21)
MarketWatch: MF funds shortfall could top $1.2 bln: trustee (Nov 21)
Perth Mint: World's largest gold coin (Nov 21)

Eye candy

Yellow is mellow

2011-11-21T15:37:00.001-10:00

Yellow is a cheerful and bright color.

Wendy Fiore

FAS vs FAZ

2011-11-21T15:17:00.001-10:00

3:16 p.m. I love to yammer on about how the banksters have us all set up. You don't think they've shorted this market? You don't think they even short themselves? Hell yeah they do! They're freaking banksters, remember? All they want is to make profits, nothing else matters. So yeah, you bet your ass they're banking through this downswing, kneecapping every hedge fund and retail trader that went long a week or two ago. They know shit is hitting the fan. So do you and so do I. But do we dive in headfirst?

I liked FAZ at 45. Liked it more at 40. It hit 35 and I was surprised. From there, I really thought the banksters would seize control and send the market into a year-end eruption to new highs. But they actually can't control things in Europe as quickly or smoothly as they can control the Fed and the White House.

So we have FAZ rising to 50 (closing above 49) while FAS fizzles. Where do they go from here? I totally believe in the psychology of round numbers. People are like that. They wince and pucker at certain round numbers and 50 is one of them. I'll watch from the sideline with my binoculars now and then, but it's too busy for me anyway to pay too much attention to the market. Just be cautious out there. Traps are everywhere.

FAZ daily

Today's round of lame news had FAZ roaring higher

FAZ daily

Pushing the higher trendline or gravity kicking in?

Hanging man candle means little with headline risk dominating

FAS daily

Returning to those basement levels again

FAS daily

Generally it's a bad idea to buy anything that has a reverse split.

BAC and FAS come to mind

FAS vs FAZ

2011-11-18T00:10:00.001-10:00

12:10 am (Hawaii) Sure enough, the market is tanking this week as Europe looks typically frazzled and anemic, and banksters are taking their time diving in to save their underlings across the pond. It's just a matter of time. Until they actually get the fiat printing presses humming 24/7/365, they'll let the market tank deeper and deeper. All the better to scoop up cheap stocks. In the meantime, they churn traders out, shaking out all the money in their wallets and pockets through pure volatility (and margin calls).

I'm glad I stayed out for the past week or two. Work has been to busy anyway, but there's a peace that comes with living life almost normally rather than fret over the whims of the indices, the ups and downs and ups and downs of FAS and FAZ and gold and silver.

FAZ's run to 48 today was a stunner to see on the chart when I finally let myself look at it a few minutes ago. I didn't think it would trade out of its range (35-44) this soon. I'm not tempted one bit to nibble here. No amount of occupying will save the fractional reserve banking system in the long run, but that's still a ways off. No way the banksters relinquish power anytime soon, but I sure think FAZ eventually rockets to 81 again, then 100. I'll wait for a retest of 35 first.

FAZ daily

Quite the ride

FAZ daily

Monster volume yesterday (Thursday)

FAZ daily

Time for a dip in the 44 & below pool?

FAS daily

The recent run has been bushwacked, hasn't it?

FAS daily

That's a whole lotta bailing out of a sinking ship

FAS daily

This can't be going to 52 or 44, can it?

FAS daily

Maybe yesterday was the blowoff sell day to end

this drop, but it sure doesn't feel like it

DGP daily

Freaky view of this gold 2x ETF

DGP daily

Simpler view isn't necessarily more bullish at all

AGQ daily

Quite ugly, but clean in a sorta neat way

VXX daily

Due for another mini dip? Charts at this point

are nothing but visual candy because Euro

monetary chaos is out of control

I remain completely seated and satiated in the bleachers. No playing in this farce of a market.

FAS vs FAZ

2011-11-15T14:06:00.001-10:00

2:06 pm (Hawaii) I suppose life has its ups and downs, but like life, the market will hit lulls. Volatility, yes, but basically, it's in a range now and that hardly has a chance of changing until the fiat printing presses are at full speed. The banksters are not going to let Europe fail as long as their cold, boney fingers remain clutched around the necks of these politicians.

FAS daily

Going nowhere no how?

FAS daily

Touch the trendline, bah-boiiinnng!

FAZ daily

Floor at 35 and heading . . . sideways?

FAZ daily

Ran above the pennant, then kneecapped into the close

FAS vs FAZ

2011-11-14T15:58:00.001-10:00

3:58 pm (Hawaii) Afterhours trading ended an hour ago. FAS finished down 4.6% today, but closed with strength as the indices cut today's losses by around half in the final hour or two. I didn't watch much. FAZ finished higher by 4.3%, but at 41.73 is well off its high of the day, 42.90.

FAZ daily

Narrow range compared to the previous months

FAZ daily

Up for today, but the hanging man candle and

paltry volume are more evidence of wishy-washyness.

FAS daily

Strong volume and a bullish candle - could it be?

FAS daily

Down for the day, but the bears just can't take

the banksters down for the full count

I remain all cash. The whipsaw, washing-machine effect isn't worth the time and risk at this point.

1. Fiat currency printing will be out of hand not long after the press men get the word

2. The market will likely rally huge, but eventually, the Grim Reaper will settle all bets.

2012 is near

2011-11-14T09:30:00.001-10:00

9:32 am (Hawaii) Just chillin today, have not looked at a thing to do with the market. Plenty of work to do. But this music helps get the flow going.

FAS vs FAZ

2011-11-10T15:26:00.001-10:00

3:25 pm (Hawaii) Paid occasional visits to the market today. Just did some work, watered the plants, enjoyed this rare day of cool, overcast weather in normally hot Honolulu. Though the indices finished higher, it felt artificial in that last couple of hours, dropping from around +160 on the Dow to around +40 or so, before rallying to +112. AAPL dropped 2.5% to 385, FAS finished up 1.3% and had that cute little 1:5 reverse split.

AGQ and DGP both finished red. After a big up day Monday, a major down day Tuesday, today felt more like consolidation Wednesday than a clear pivot point. I remain off the field, on the bleachers until there's some semblance of logic and reason in this environment. I continue to believe that eventually FAZ goes back to 81, then to 100, so I should just get my FAZ and forget about it, right? Maybe. I'm a cheapskate, so the next time FAZ tests support (now 35) and holds, I might be in again. I don't buy all this "Europe is about to collapse" propaganda. It's always this kind of scenario before the banksters get their way and the market rips to highs.

But the longer they pull puppet strings and keep the market down, the more inclined I am to buying a few more gold and silver coins. The fiat printing machine is humming, no question about it. Just a matter of time. Beyond that, shit could hit the fan a year from now. Five years from now. It's a matter of time.

FAZ daily

Why isn't FAZ back at 81? Exactly.

The market talks scared, but in reality, it's just

waiting for the fiat currency presses to run.

FAZ daily

Banksters are probably thinking, let's drive this thing to zero.

Meanwhile, the toxic waste of their decisions is burning under

the old rug.

FAS daily

Up? Down? Both FAS and FAZ are well off recent highs.

Shorting both is clearly the smart move, if that floats your boat.

FAS daily

The 1:5 split is a cute move, but ultimately just gives FAS plenty

of room to the downside. Again.

Wednesday cinema & library (updated 830 pm HST)

2011-11-09T20:43:00.000-10:00

Blogs
(new) Golden Truth: Don't get MF'd by Blackrock (Nov 9)
(new) Golden Truth: Stagflation sets in (Nov 9)
Zero Hedge: Did Merkel just usher in the deutsche mark? (Nov 9)
Reggie Middleton: What's that I heard about squids raising capital because they can't trade? (Nov 9)
Zero Hedge: Italy sparks market bloodbath: financial stocks collapse (Nov 9)
Le Fly: Murderholes (Nov 9)
Scott Bleier: Sometimes there are two sets of facts... (Nov 9)
Turd Ferguson: The Criminal Element, part deux (Nov 9)
Le Fly: Behold: Armageddon (Nov 9)
Cain Thaler: It is now official (Nov 9)
RaginCajun: Not quick enough (Nov 9)
Turd Ferguson: Bancarotta (Nov 9)
Zero Hedge: YTD equity fund outflows hit $112 billion (Nov 9)
Nicholas Pardini: It's not too late to short financials (Nov 9)
David White: Italy's 10-year bond yield passes 7% - another black swan event? (Nov 9)
Reggie Middleton: Italy's woes spell nightmare for NBP - just as I predicted (Nov 9)
SGS: Morning update (Nov 9)
Le Fly: Nuclear option is now on table (Nov 9)
RC Whalen: MF Global, repo-to-maturity and large bank OBS exposures (Nov 9)

Zero Hedge: Barclays says Italy is finished: 'Mathematically beyond point of no return' (Nov 8)

Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul: Chinese to bust gold cartel (Nov 8)
(new) Peter Morici: Is Italy next to fall and will gold go to $3,000/oz (Nov 8)
Golden Truth: More on MF Global - it gets worse (Nov 6)

Vlogs

silverfuturist: Silver doesn't blow up when promises fail (Nov 9)
Hit the Bid: Krull to Arms (Nov 9)
James Turk: Guest Markus Kerber (Sept 30)

Audio

(new) Peter Schiff Radio (Nov 9)

Mainstream
CNBC: Italy's woes signal 'dangerous phase' in EU crisis: El-Erian (Nov 9)
Reuters: ECB's Stark to Europe: We are not 'lender of last resort' (Nov 9)
CNBC: State, muni crunch hits home values: Meredith Whitney (Nov 9)
CNBC: 65 chance of banking crisis by end Nov: Think tank (Nov 9)
Bloomberg: Goldman Sachs traders lost money 21 days in Q3, most since '08 (Nov 9)

(video) Reuters: Italy's borrowing at breaking point (Nov 9)

(video) Euronews: Berlusconi set for exit after austerity vote (Nov 9)

(video) Reuters: Perfect storm forming in Italian bond market (Nov 9)

(video) ET Now: Guest Jim Rogers (Nov 8)

Eye candy

FAS vs FAZ

2011-11-09T12:58:00.000-10:00

12:36 pm (Hawaii) Getting a lot of work done early in the day now that I'm not obsessing over a schizoid market. Yesterday, Italy's chief announced he would step down under conditional terms and the market zoomed. Today, Italy bonds get out of control (again) and the Dow loses 389 points (3.2%). The action was not gray area at all. AAPL sank 2.7% to 395. Financials were fugly.

BAC -5.2% to 6.19, WFC -5.4%, AIG -6.3%, IRE -6.5%, NBG -6.8%, JPM -7.2%, UBS -7.7%, C -8%, STD -8.2%, GS 8.2%, BBVA -8.3%, MS -8.7%, HBC -9.1%, ETFC -9.4%, JEF -10.4%, RBS -11.1%, DB -11.2%.

FAS shrank 14.8%. FAZ went from 39 yesterday to 43+ today with very little selloff into the close. In fact, after I got up, it dropped below 43 to the mid-42s, then ran up above 43.50. On big volume. If you're like me, you know AAPL leads the retail market, and AAPL's selloff today on large volume with that hanging man candle looks simply horrible.

Technicals do not tell us what's going to happen, and they are the mercy of headline risk. But they do provide a visual into the global monetary chaos, and what a friggin mess.

Below, some charts and that includes TVIX, which was up 37% freaking percent! I remain in the bleachers sipping a hot cocoa, cash under the mattress.

FAZ daily

No matter how much weight the banksters have behind their

punch, they can't find resolution to the toxic assets near and far.

FAZ daily

Major move today on heavy volume but I suspect this stays in a

range between 36 and 44. A break above 44 would tempt.

FAS daily

The breakout momentum was doused today but volume

was not totally indicative of a definite avalanche.

FAS daily

Big move post-pennant? I should've said moves, as in plural!

DGP daily

Down 1.7% today, which makes no sense considering the

mega-printing of fiat that is due globally. Soon.

AAPL daily

One hell of an ugly candle.

AAPL daily

The move lower was on significant volume.

UUP daily

Mad US dollar!

TVIX daily

37% in one day? This closed at 46.04 yesterday.

TVIX daily

The Italian-German-French-Greek soap opera continues in

As The Euro Central Bank Turns. Tomorrow's episode:

Happy bedroom talk resumes and TVIX loses half of

today's enormous gain.

FAS vs FAZ

2011-11-08T01:00:00.000-10:00

Coincidentally, with the 2,000th post on this little blog, I took a much-needed break. The string of losing trades, albeit with mostly tiny to small losses, wore me down. Couple that with a busy workload and blogging wasn't a priority for the past several days. I've known for a long time that I need to air out my thoughts in order to bring order. The clutter doesn't work for me, so I leave it all here for my own benefit. I wouldn't doubt it's the same for a lot of traders.

Looking at FAZ, FAS and DGP before the market opens wasn't something I particularly enjoyed. It's something I made myself do, at least to keep in touch with a small sliver of the market. I haven't made the time to keep track of the mess in the ECU or stateside and I frankly don't miss it. I'm sure the break will be extended.

FAZ daily

Breaking 42 wasn't something I assumed would happen.

35, I wrote awhile back, is where I'd really get interested.

Now we have a pennant for the first time in weeks.

I'll watch from the bleachers.

FAZ daily

Pre-premarket has FAZ trading below 40.

FAS daily

The run from sub-9 to 15-plus was sudden and severe.

The banksters would not and will let Eurozone interests fail.

FAS daily

Like FAZ, a pennant has formed, which often indicates

a big move is coming soon.

DGP daily

Haven't kept track of gold and silver spot price in ages.

These trendlines are clearly bullish, but I've stayed out.

DGP daily

The trickeration of the puppeteers is a major reason

why I'm in no rush to leap into the fiery lake of gold

FASter (updated 318 am HST)

2011-11-03T02:33:00.008-10:00

2:32 am (Hawaii) FAS on the move again. Haven't read any headlines and the TV has been off all night. But FAS closed yesterday at 13.75 and is hovering above 14.20 now in premarket trading. Fib retrace would bring it down to 14.04.

Update 2:39 am A lot of speculation yesterday is becoming fact today, possibly, with the Greek PM stepping down today. That opens the door for a new PM, basically a puppet, and that would make the referendum "acceptable" to the United States of Europe, and allow Greece to bounce out of the Euro monetary system. Win-win for all sides, and from what I read yesterday, this trail of madness makes sense in its insane way. In other words, as Turd Ferguson and others have penned, the route to printing paper continues.

Catching up with all this news in Greece as I lay here in bed with my laptop, watching Bloomberg TV online. Yes, I am in bed with Betty Liu. Again.

Obama side by side with Sarkozy. Was this ever really going to fall apart? There's no way the banksters would have let that happen, not this week.

Update 2:47 am FAS made ludicrous surge from 14.15 to 14.53 (in a 2-minute span) before selling back down to 14.35. Bloomberg reporting that the new ECB boss is cutting the base interest rate. The puppet show is ON.

New Fib retrace level for FAS is now 14.23. Currently 14.36.

Update 3:18 am Betty now says Greece PM is "fighting on" and will not resign. I'm glad I'm not trading on these contrary bizarro headline news. FAS is holding at 14.36 so far, but 14.23 (Fib retrace) is in range. I don't like these wacko reports though. They're all lying, aren't they?

More likely, the Greece PM is Dr. Jekyll when he's corralled by Euro interests, then is back to Mr. Hyde when he is back home.

Wednesday cinema & library

2011-11-02T15:27:00.001-10:00

Blogs

Le Fly: Another staged crisis (Nov 2)

Vlogs

Audio

Mainstream
Bloomberg: 'Too soon' to discuss China buying more EFSF: Zhu (Nov 2)

13.33? (updated 944 am HST)

2011-11-02T03:37:00.006-10:00

3:35 am (Hawaii) Looking for FAS Fib retrace to 13.33 off its high today of 13.69. Dow currently +162 (1.4%), Nasdaq up 31 (+1.2%), S&P +19 (+1.6%).

Update 4:04 am FAS touched 13.33, finally, for a minute or two, rose up to 13.45, now dipping a second time. If it can hold at 13.33 for more than a minute, fine. I'm not optimistic or skeptical. Everything is in flux because of Greece and today's FOMCpalooza.

Update 8:22 am Got my sleep, woke up about an hour ago, just lounging in bed. Laptop and Bloomberg TV online. I guess I could say I was in bed with Betty Loo this morning. FAS ran to 13.92 off that Fib retrace to 13.33. The precision of that retrace was cool, highly entertaining and fun. Too bad I didn't buy. I had an order in, but it never filled.

As I slept, FAS pulled back again probably based on the Fed minutes of its 2-day meeting (no policy change). An hour ago, FAS dipped to 13.20, low of the day, and then ran to 13.54 before selling off again, mini-waterfall style. Currently at 13.26-13.33. So FAS is back to today's Fib retrace level.

Dow +123 (+1%), Nasdaq +13 (+0.5%), S&P +11.85 (+0.9%). FAZ is at 43.17-43.24 here.

Staying out through Bernanke's press conference.

Update 8:50 am From Business Insider, predictions from the Fed:

It lowered GDP growth forecasts for 2011 from 2.7%-2.9% in June to 1.6%-1.7%. For 2012, it revised projections downward to 2.5%-2.9%.
The Fed boosted unemployment projections to 9.0-9.1% from 8.6%-8.9%.
The Fed also raised PCE inflation estimates slightly for this year to 1.8-1.9% (they were predicting 1.5%-1.9%). Predictions for next year were relatively unchanged, however, at 1.5%-2.0%.

Meanwhile, FAS has broken higher to 13.49. No apparent reason why.

Update 9:44 am Not touching anything here, though I have a bias to the long side. 13.51 is a crucial point for FAS, being the 50% retrace price of the latest run from 13.21 to 13.80. FAS is testing this intraday support level for the second time now.

Bouncing FAS

2011-11-02T03:20:00.006-10:00

3:21 am (Hawaii) The more I think, the better I trade. It's when I fail to think, fail to write or journal, that I fall off the tracks. Discipline would've kept me in and stopped me out of FAZ at good price points yesterday. Instead, I chased, stayed in overnight despite expecting a possible bounce in bankster stocks, and I sold this morning at 42+ for a sizable loss (almost $3/share).

I have faith in discipline. It's emotion that leads to dumb trades. Futures are up modestly = Dow futures only +41 while FAZ was -6% - but again, it was a bad trade from the start. Before afterhours trading closed yesterday, I thought about getting some FAS to balance out my FAZ trade, which I didn't do. FAS is up 6%, which was what I knew could happen based on previous boxes and patterns of ascending volume in FAZ during the past few months. 3-day surges followed by selloffs. Major selloffs.

Tuesday cinema & library (updated 530 pm HST)

2011-11-01T16:36:00.003-10:00

Blogs

(new) Charles Hugh Smith: The stock market megaphone pattern that should terrify you (Nov 1)

(new) Cullen Roche: The ugly math behind Italy's sovereign debt crisis (Nov 1)

(new) Golden Truth: US banking system more leveraged now than 2008 (Nov 1)

(new) Peter Brandt: What charts say about US stock market (Nov 1)

Zero Hedge: Morgan Stanley on Greece, why it is very Euro negative (Nov 1)

Turd Ferguson: MFing Global (Nov 1)

Lance Roberts: Fed trapped by inflation, there will be no QE3 tomorrow (Nov 1)
Reggie Middleton: Greco-Franco bank run has skipped pond, landed in NY/Chicago (Nov 1)
Zero Hedge: How US banks are lying about European exposure (Nov 1)
SGS: Carnage update (Nov 1)

Le Fly: Life could be worse (Nov 1)
Jake Gint: Pumpkin head market (Nov 1)
Cain Thaler: I'll take a break from pessimism (Nov 1)
Rajun Cajun: Pullback to the 20-day (Nov 1)
chessnwine: Melting away the coked-up rally (Nov 1)

SGS: MF bankruptcy, Turk and coming housing collapse (Oct 31)

Vlogs

bigdad06: China moves on water! (Nov 1)

manoftruth: Europe, Greece, US and total economic collapse (Nov 1)
RT: Domino effect? 'Debt unpayable, Greece to exit Euro mess' (Nov 1)
chessnwine: Stock market recap (Nov 1)

RT: Lauren Lyster (Nov 1)

Gerald Celente: Liberty Plaza, part 3 (Nov 1)

(new) NewAmericaNow: Greece: SHTF imminent (Nov 1)

(new) Christopher Greene: MF Global is next Lehman (Nov 1)

Audio

Mainstream
(new) Business Insider: Europe - What to expect in the next 24 hours (Nov 1)

(new) Business Insider: The scariest chart in Europe: Italy-German 10-year spread (Nov 1)

(new) Business Insider: Here's who is freaking out now that Greece will hard default (Nov 1)

(new) Business Insider: Fitch joins mass freak-out over Greek referendum (Nov 1)

Bloomberg: Wen may loosen credit as China inflation cools (Nov 1)
Bloomberg: All MF Global funds accounted for (Nov 1)
Bloomberg: EU leaders hold pre-G20 crisis talks (Nov 1)
AP: Greek govt in chaos with debt deal in doubt (Nov 1)

(new) Business Insider: Papandreou gets cabinet to rally around referendum (Nov 1)
Reuters: Germans warn of Greek euro exit after referendum gambit (Nov 1)

Bloomberg: Selling more insurance on shaky European debt raises risk for US banks (Nov 1)
NBC: FBI, federal prosecutors to join inquiry into Corzine firm (Nov 1)
Investopedia: The history of Greek sovereign debt defaults (Sept 26)

(new) Business Insider: The sad story of why everyone's angry at Italy (Sept 23)

Trick or Treat?

FAS vs FAZ - Discipline vs Emotion (updated 3:57 pm HST)

2011-11-01T13:05:00.003-10:00

FAZ daily

Another 10+% move, now up roughly 25% in two days.

Note the four boxes. In each of those 3-day time spans,

FAZ volume exploded in similar sequence.

Each time, FAZ sold off drastically after those 3 days.

We're at the end of another of those 3-day boxes.

FAZ daily

I guessed yesterday that the new range would be 36 to 42, the

latter being previous support. Today's candle is not quite bullish,

and though a lot of traders think rising volume is good, sometimes

it indicates a blow-off top. That's been true of FAZ lately.

FAZ daily

This kind of exploding volume, the last 3 days worth,

happens often enough in FAZ. Kind of like a drunkard getting

ready to ralph. Full pukeage tomorrow?

FAS daily

Though FAZ looks about to pass out from fatigue, FAS and

this hanging man candlestick look horrendous. More so with

the conviction of this volume. Then again, there might not be

any sellers left.

FAS daily

Off today's low, just barely. Entering here is only for the brave.

I have no love for the banksters, but I did trade FAS from 11 (or so)

to 11.33 a week or two ago. No way to know where it bottoms

this time.

12:26 pm (Hawaii) My first look at FAZ as a buying opportunity today came after the rise to 44+. I waited for 42.96 as a Fib retrace and possible entry point. I missed it, felt fine. It ran up to 45, came back down and I waited to see if 42.96 would hold. It did not. All the stops and profit-taking kicked in as FAZ sank to below 42.30. I didn't nibble. I went to sleep at around 5:30 am local time.

Near the end of the day, FAZ ran again on yet another intraday dip. The Fib retrace this time was 43.67. Sure enough, FAZ ran from 45+ down below 44 and briefly touched the 43.60s. Again, I didn't step in. FAZ ran above 44, then to 45. What did I do? I chased at 45.15, debated on getting out before the bell at a little above break-even, broke discipline and held it. As usual, FAZ sold off right after the closing bell and remains at just above 44.00 after hours.

This is the difference between knowing and executing, discipline and emotion. I normally refuse to hold FAS or FAZ overnight due to European lunatic behavior. But this time, I intend to walk out and take a small loss strictly because the market has sold off several hundred points on the Dow in two days, and Helicopter Ben is speaking tomorrow. I will not test that tar pit of death. Sure, FAZ will run higher eventually, but it's time for a breather and traders will jump out as they already have late today. If it returns to 40 or 35+, better price.

Maybe Bernanke says nothing tomorrow. Maybe the chatter about Greek default and investor lawsuits against MF Global gets heavier. Maybe it's time for me to establish a longer-term position in FAZ. Too many maybes equal probably not.

Update 3:57 pm If FAS does a 5o% Fib retrace off its recent high, that would bring it to 12.58. It hit a low of 12.72 today. Close enough? Won't surprise me if FAS bounces tomorrow.

42.96? (updated 425 am HST)

2011-11-01T03:48:00.004-10:00

3:45 am (Hawaii) Couldn't get online while I was out running an errand (yes at pre-dawn) until now. FAZ opened at 44.89 and is selling off down to 43.81 now. I'm looking for a Fibonacci retrace of the gap up that would bring the price in to 42.96. If it holds there and the market stays put, maybe I'll start a small position. Anything goes in this friggin headline insanity market, so I'm not too gung ho about this level. I wasn't gung ho at 35+ either so I'm just a chickenshit.

Dow -260, Nas -63, S&P -31.

Update 4:01 am That was typically freaky. FAZ went from 43.30ish to 43.95 in a few seconds. About 15 seconds after that, Bloomberg came out with bad news on some economic numbers. But as soon as the reporter noted that there were some good numbers mixed in, FAZ sold right back to 43.30. This is why price discipline is key and fluctuations can wear out any trader. The kind of discipline that has a new position at 36 and rides this wave out. Probably would've sold by now. I'm a nervous nellie.

Update 4:25 am Second test of the 42.96 level failed avalanche style after flirting with 43.10-43.35 for several minutes. Once it stepped below 42.96, splash. Now at 42.52. Glad I waited on some support first rather than pushing against the odds. FAS might be a decent trade now, but I want more than decent. Sitting this out for sure now, at least for now. Breaking that level tells me that the market in FAZ has lost its buying pressure and sellers are moving in.

Dow -191, Nas -51, S&P -22

FAS vs FAZ - Early morning edition

2011-11-01T02:06:00.001-10:00

1:57 am (Hawaii) Just a few minutes until we peons can participate in premarket trading. I have no idea if the Euro geniuses will come out with some crazy, unbelievable new "plan" that will save the market today. But for now, FAZ is up big and FAS is down big. FAZ, which I thought might open premarket at 42, is actually at 43.45. FAS is sinking toward 13. That's right, FAZ is already up 9.2%.

FAZ daily

Who knows what kind of shenanigans the puppeteers have

in pre-premarket for us peons. For now, looks like the banksters

got some 'splainin' to do.

FAZ daily

The banksters will win in the end, but it won't be a knockout.

Not even corporate-backed government can save every bank.

The process of elimination and consolidation will reek with

unfathomable and undeniable stench. There will be money to

be made in that ugliness.

FAS daily

Quickly to 15 and 16, quicker back to 13?

FAS daily

So if everyone's sitting on the sideline, who moved the market

up last week? Yes, of course. Big Brother to the rescue.

Again. Just like 2008.

Turrbul Tuesday?

2011-11-01T00:46:00.004-10:00

12:46 am (Hawaii) Some Halloween. I stayed in, hardly any trick or treaters came by and it was couch potato night instead of wild partying. This is what happens when people get old. Late nights and bad traffic and deafening music add up to a non-necessity. But this is interesting: Dow futures are -150, S&P futures are -22.50 and Nasdaq futures are -40.25.

Asia tanked overnight: Nikkei -1.7%, Topix -1.25%, Hang Seng -2.5%. Europe is far worse: Stoxx -3.9%, FTSE -2.5%, Dax -3.8%. So much for Sarkozy and Merkel and all that bullydoodoo talk last Friday. Don't mean squat now. It was all vapor.

I'm all cash so this doesn't hurt or help me. Okay maybe it hurts a little that I didn't pick up some FAZ at 35-36 even though I had HOPED it would fall to 35 when it was hovering at 42-44. I'm just weak that way sometimes. FAZ was 39+ at the closing bell yesterday and 40+ afterhours. I suppose it'll start trading premarket at 42. Still a long way back to 81 and even further to 100. I don't know when that happens. It just will. We could see a retest of 35 this week. All Sarkozy and Merkel have to do is start another ballroom dance to get the markets titillated again.

Monday cinema & library

2011-10-31T10:43:00.008-10:00

Every now and then I visit American Bulls for their take on the market. Here's what their candlestick analysis looks like as of Oct 31.

FXP - Buy confirmed
FCX - Sell if
FAS - Sell if
MF - Wait
BAC - Wait
NBG - Sell if
STD - Wait
JPM - Sell if
GS - Sell if
GLD - Sell Confirmed
DGP - Sell Confirmed
SLV - Sell if
AGQ - Hold
UUP - Buy Confirmed
FAZ - Buy Confirmed
EUO - Buy Confirmed
SPY - Sell if
AAPL - Hold
NFLX - Wait
CSTR - Wait
LULU - Sell if
GOOG - Hold
BIDU - Hold
GMCR - Sell if

Blogs

Reggie Middleton: The ironic, prophetic nature of MF Global bankruptcy (Oct 31)

Le Fly: Haunted banks (Oct 31)

Le Fly: Now let me tell you what I really think of the EFSF (Oct 31)
Mark Garbin: A glimpse into the future - Why I'm optimistic (Oct 29)

Vlogs

streetmoney21: We need you to be a financial activist (Oct 31)

endlessmountain: Accounting, gold and silver (Oct 31)

endlessmountain: JPMorgan to silver price ratio (Oct 31)

James Turk: Guest Adam Fergusson (Oct 31)

Hit the Bid: End of days with Daytrading Dina (Oct 31)

Hit the Bid: Krull to Arms (Oct 31)

RT: Reggie Middleton proven correct on disastrous consequences of ZIRP (Oct 31)

silverfuturist: Margin Call - best movie this year (Oct 31)

streetmoney21: If you are losing at your own game, just change the rules (Oct 29)

Real News: Bank of America's death rattle (Oct 29)

MoneyBags73: Google Trends of silver price gives us insight (Oct 29)

Audio
Chris Martenson: Guest Paul Tustain (Oct 31)

Peter Schiff Radio (Oct 31)

Tim Monk Radio: Guest Turd Ferguson (Oct 28)

Mainstream

Reuters: Greek referendum disappoints markets (Nov 1)

Reuters: All eyes on Euro downside (Nov 1)

Euronews: Greek vote plan sends stocks sliding (Nov 1)

Euronews: Greek bailout referendum stirs strong feelings (Nov 1)

Reuters: Bove says MF Global meltdown to lead to more regulation (Oct 31)

Reuters: MF Global files for bankruptcy (Oct 31)

Fantasy Football

dereksdiary: Tape review of Tebow and Broncos (Oct 31)

FAS vs FAZ

2011-10-31T10:04:00.001-10:00

FAZ daily

A break from the downtrend?

FAZ daily

If this is a true break higher, doesn't mean FAZ streaks back to 81.

Until the next catalyst - did MF Global's bad news today really

hurt banksters? - 36 to 42 looks probable.

FAS daily

Consolidation is coming to finnies. Already here, in some ways.

Betting against the banksters is hard but until the biggest cheaters

absorb all of the MF Globals of the world, FAS will swing wildly.

FAS daily

The intraday volatility can be traded by few. A buy at the

lower trendline and a sell at the higher level has proven

profitable for some traders. Don't look at me. I sold at 11.33.

9:45 am (Hawaii) Took a nice time off to get a breather from the market, enjoy other aspects of life and feeling fine. Got up around 7:00 am Hawaii time, watered my garden, kept track occasionally on the market. Dow was down around 140 then. Now -230 going into the close. FAZ had hit a high of 38+, dropped to 37+, but is now near its HOD at 39.30. I'm all cash and have been for a few days. In and out, not holding anything overnight.

MF Global declared bankruptcy, due primarily to sovereign debt. They're going to survive one way or another, almost guaranteed to be bought out by one of the big whale banksters for pennies on the dollar. My take is MF Global takes the pain now for an easier landing later while other banks and financials stall out the process and eat dirt later. Better to purge now but these guys don't want to deal with it.

FAS is down near its lows of the day at 14.85 and could start retracing its recent climb to 15+. Will FAS drop back to 12 and 9? Who knows? FAZ was attractive at 35+ but I would not pull the trigger then. Unfortunately. Europe is Europe and will remain staunchly divided on bailouts and details for a long time. It's a tangled mess with too many voices and not enough action. Real action. Not posturing and politics. The US is in a worse mess but there are fewer voices and it's a little easier to read, obviously.

Volume in FAZ was solid today, but not so much to persuade me that we have a crash week in store. My guess is FAZ fluctuates between 36 and 42 for awhile. Any break above 44-45 would be spooky for the banksters, who are running out of provisions, barriers and ammo against the Grim Reaper storming the castle gate. Eventually FAZ returns to 81, then hits 100. Just don't know when.

Thursday cinema & library

2011-10-27T12:08:00.005-10:00

Note: Adding links later today (after work).

10:41 am (Hawaii) Took a spin with FAS, in at 16.55, rose to 16.73 or so, and dropped. Stopped out at 16.40. Very small loss, but the size of position is clearly affecting my exit strategy. Had I doubled the position, I would've bailed at 16.60 or 16.65. But because the position was so small, I was willing to ride a swing back up. After getting stopped out, FAS dipped to 16.15 or so before rallying back to 16.50 afterhours.

That's all I did today. Planning to rework strategy to lock in small gains rather than "lock in" small losses in this turbulence. How long will the ECU's decision have an effect? Could be weeks, days, hours. Maybe the market dives tomorrow. As Max Keiser (above) noted, there has been no sustaining solution. It's all printing fiat and bullshit politics. Not that I want to go long FAZ yet, even at 35+.

There are desperate fund managers out there. Everyone with a toe in the market will be bobbing and weaving through the torrent of bad, dumb news coming out of the banksters and EU and Fed. The managers will keep dipping in, though, to salvage a lost year. It's not about economics or fundamentals or technicals right now. It's about big money and where it swims. Pilot fish time.

Blogs

Reggie Middleton: Banks have volunteered at gunpoint to get 50% taken - no credit event? (Oct 27)
Zero Hedge: Euro bailout cracks emerge; Greece 'just says no' (Oct 27)

Turd Ferguson: Fast market = fast update (Oct 27)

Charles Hugh Smith: EU leaders throw Europe a plutonium life preserver (Oct 27)

Gold Seek: Why mega gold stocks rally is imminent (Oct 27)

Casey Research: An opportunity to repeat a good mistake? (Oct 20?)

Vlogs

RT: Max Keiser: Debt slash - a debt hike, collapse guaranteed! (Oct 27)

H1INC: Learn the game before you play it (Oct 27)

Hit the Bid: Dow 20 thou believe it (Oct 27)

Hit the Bid: Greatest stock market rally ever continues (Oct 27)

Audio

Mainstream
(video) Fox: UKIP leader Nigel Farage (Oct 27)

(video) Euronews: China welcomes EU debt deal (Oct 27)

(video) Euronews: Skepticism in Greece after latest EU deal (Oct 27)
Wall St Journal: Baidu 3Q profit jumps 80%, predicts strong 4Q (Oct 27)

Wall St Journal: The Vatican's monetary wisdom (Oct 27)
The Telegraph: Eurozone bailout: holes emerge in 'grand solution' to solve EU debt crisis (Oct 27)
SEC: MF Global revolving credit facility (June 29)

FAS vs FAZ

2011-10-27T11:51:00.002-10:00

11:32 am (Hawaii) Technical Knockout? Huge volume in both FAS and FAZ. Even with normal profit-taking, FAS is up 17% to 16.45, blasting through that 15.00 level. If the myth/lie can be perpetuated out of Euroland, FAS could rise into the 20s rapidly.

FAZ is barely able to hold above 35, which had been my hope for a new entry point. I'm waiting this out to see how the market reacts. Fuck theory and logic. If hedge funds and mutual funds pour in for Nov and Dec madness, it doesn't matter how smart or clever your theory is about the disintegration of the Fiat monetary system. Not until 2012, anyway.

FAS daily

Completely ripped through megaphone levels

without QE3, unless this Euro Bailout is the same.

15.00 was a possibility, now 25 is in the picture!

FAS daily

The first uptrend lasted 7 days.

The new one barely lasted 7 days, seemed ready

to dip on day 8 (yesterday) and has surged back

to the top of the current level.

FAS daily

Major volume - short covering? - today.

FAZ daily

42 was the new thin ice.

Now 35 is in play, new territory.

FAZ daily

Snapback action could be coming, but I'm not

inclined to bet against the banksters yet.

FAZ daily

Currently below 1-year lows.

FAZ daily

Previous 1-year lows are history now

For a little more fun, a look at SPY.

SPY daily

Basically a clone of FAS daily, if less volatile.

SPY daily

As the EU turns, so does the days of our market.

Waka Wakaa! (updated 8:51 am HST)

2011-10-27T08:35:00.003-10:00

8:17 am (Hawaii) I'm not quite as excited as Fozzie Bear used to get on the Muppet Show. I'm not long, I'm not short. Just flat. All cash since yesterday. I got up an hour ago, watered my garden and had peace of mind. Then I turn on the TV and the Dow is up 330 points. HOLY SHIT.

I can't say I'm shocked that the Euro league of superheroes found some form of resolution and compromise. They were locked in a room together and to do anything but a constructive (?) plan would've unleashed the dragons and sent both Euro and US markets into a whirlpool of epic proportions. So there. The bulls win this battle. The bears lose. In a way, I lost, too, by not being long.

AAPL 405.88 +1.3%
AGQ 71.02 +11.1%
DGP 60.35 +2.8%
FAS 16.21 +15.4%
QQQ 58.93 +2.9%
SPY 128.47 +3.3%
TMV 19.62 +10.7%
TNA 52.45 +7.1%
GOOG 600.81 +2.4%
FXE 141.72 +3.2%
PNRA 136.59 +2.2%

I tossed PNRA onto my Modified Trade X list for fun since it was up huge yesterday. Add another 2.2% today and you know there are a lot of believers in this run today. More so than with AAPL or GOOG, which are sexier. For PNRA to jump after yesterday's move up is impressive.

I'm glad for my little stack of physical metal. I didn't buy more physical while gold was below $1650 and I didn't buy more silver while it was below 30. I just held. It's savings. But I didn't buy AGQ or DGP, though I'll be looking for an entry point . AGQ was available after the opening bell below 66. DGP was below 59. It's probably not too late but I'm picky at price here.

Here's a weird looking 1-min chart of DGP. It always looks sketchy when any price is capped like this to either up or down side.

DGP 1-minute

Strange but nice for bulls

FAS. I had it at 11.09 and sold twice below 11.50. The charts of FAS and FAZ, which I've been posting daily, clearly showed that FAZ was on thin ice and barely able to hold support at 42. I surmised that it might be attractive again at 35, and we have it standing at 36+. I'll wait before touching FAZ and it'll probably be a long wait. There will be fluctuations due to the nature of haughty, deceptive talk out of Euroland — any plan that involves cuts that go to 2026 is fraught with bullshit — but for the most part, the Euro is rising and so will markets.

FAS at 16.30 is near its high of the day. I'm cautious here. There's already been a selloff off the opening gap up, then a run higher. Is there another one coming in the final 90 minutes before the bell? Or will this sell off by half?

Is this another melt-up run like QE1 or QE2? The market sure feels that way. With just over 2 months left in the year, hedge funds will be working like mad to make all the easy money possible, especially since most of them are flat or negative YTD. Like a pilot fish, I must catch that free ride. It's been too hard the past month or two.

Debt Spiral (banksters) list
SCGLY 6.70 +24%
DB 47.64 +18.8%
MS 19.38 +16.9%
FAS 16.38 +16.5%
RBS 9.07 +12.6%
BBVA 9.90 +12.4%
UBS 14.14 +11.7%
NBG 0.61 +11.6%
STD 9.30 +10.7%
IRE 6.39 +10%
C 34.07 +9.4%
GS 116.11 +9.2%
BAC 7.17 +8.8%
JPM 36.94 +8%
HBC 44.98 +6.2%
AIG 26.84 +6%
WFC 27.14 +5.3%
FAZ 36.20 -16.4%

As I've penned for awhile, they simply won't let the Euro (and US) banksters fail. Period. Not for now, anyway.

Update 8:51 am Intraday double top in FAS? Glad I didn't chase at 16.50.

FAS 1-minute

Waiting this out.

FAS vs FAZ

2011-10-26T12:38:00.002-10:00

FAZ daily

Dying on the vine, this is. The global market is

no better off than it was in July, yet FAZ is out

of fuel. Can't and won't fight the trend overnight.

FAZ daily

Again, 42 held as support, but for how much longer?

FAS daily

Financials have overall been losers this quarter,

yet buying pressure is strong in bankster stocks.

FAS daily

Price is teetering near a key point.

Today's late-day surge despite uncertainty in Europe

proves once again that "they" won't let Euro banks

or US banks fail. Again.

12:24 pm (Hawaii) Tomato, to-mah-toe. Potato, po-tah-toe. Up, down, down, up. I traded FAZ twice in the earlier hours for two very small losses. Yes, would've been better off asleep, but I was quite awake at 4 am so . . . . . Woke up near the close to see the indices much higher after dipping below break even. What explains this? I can't think of a sane, logical reason. It is what it is. The charts on FAS and FAZ prove it. No matter what your thesis, volume is on the buy side of the market, even though there are a remarkable number of strikeout stocks again today. Last week we had Goldman Sachs missing, but the stock rallied. Now we have AMZN, NFLX and a ton of huge losers this week. (Panera beat solidly. I should follow bread/restaurant stocks a little.)

Whatever the market does, I refuse to hold a thing overnight as long as it trades on Merkel/Sarkozy/China headlines. The only thing that comes close to making sense is that gold is moving up. A China intervention to save the Euro monetary system requires more fiat printing, bottom line, and that makes gold (and silver) more valuable. Still, is it the machines programmed by plunge protectors that keeps this putrid market afloat? Or is it simply retail traders? Hedge funds/HFTs comprise a vast majority of the market, so what else would explain it? The market is rigged, as always, and I aim to be a pilot fish, not a hero. A pilot fish with a little sack of metal and a constant aversion to extreme risk.

Today, we learn that the EU is nowhere near a common plan to solve this crisis. They won't even meet face to face. Not good. Bank stocks sell off. Then they rally big into the close. Makes no sense, but that's what happens in a casino where every deck is funny.

How long until Bank of America is majority owned by the Bank of China? Not very, I say. Not very.

Tuesday cinema & library (updated 900 pm HST)

2011-10-25T20:34:00.001-10:00

Blogs
Upside Trader: Why I shorted financials twice in 2 days (Oct 25)
Le Fly: You are cordially invited (Oct 25)
Cain Thaler: I told you they'd disappoint (Oct 25)
Le Fly: Hedge fund relief rally stalled (Oct 25)
Cain Thaler: QE3 is coming (Oct 25)
Le Fly: There is only one long trade here (Oct 25)
Le Fly: Devil is in details (Oct 25)
Rajun Cajun: What I'm looking at this morning (Oct 25)
Golden Truth: Housing continues death spiral (Oct 25)

Vlogs

(new) streetmoney21: Gold, silver finally make a move (Oct 25)

(new) bullorbearreport: Silver rebound, markets looking bullish (Oct 25)

Truth Never Told: The Riddle (Oct 25)

Peter Schiff: How govt stimulus spending and deficits impact capital markets (Oct 25)

Wearchange.org: Russell Simmons on End the Fed (Oct 25)

endless mountain: Stock market and silver technical analysis (Oct 25)

ScrapGoldBusiness: Time has come to buy silver (Oct 25)

Kitco: Bill Murphy, Jeff Christian (Oct 25)

Jim Comiskey: Daily market insights - Metals futures (Oct 25)

Audio
Peter Schiff Radio (Oct 25)

Chris Martenson: Guest Eric Sprott (Oct 25)

Mainstream

Reuters: Amazon profits fall more than expected (Oct 25)

FAZ vs FAZ

2011-10-25T11:32:00.002-10:00

10:55 am (Hawaii) Back to banksters.

Bank stocks were on a tear in the past few weeks. At 13.31, FAS is up big from its intraday low of 8.43 on Oct 4. FAZ is off its Oct 4 high (81.20). It'll be interesting to see how FAZ, now in the 45-46 range, can hold here. Sans headline news, Euroland skittishness, the inevitable fiat printing machinery and eventual implosion of the monetary system, FAS will run higher on bullish bankster days (France and Germany agreeing on a compromise deal) at the open and close, normally. When the Euro scene is negative, FAZ will open strong and finish strong. The HFT programs are under strict orders, after all.

When, not if, but when the fiat printing machines go into overdrive, FAS may get to 27+, which was its recent high before the recent avalanche to sub-9.

FAS daily

Pause that refreshes?

FAS daily

When the fiat printing machines start overheating,

FAS could go back to the recent high at 27+ and

trade in a truly insane new range as Euro cities

are filled with protests, nations default and new

"creative" (temporary) solutions are drawn up.

FAZ daily

So 42 might be the new floor, a dip that was

predictable to an extent. Sure FAZ could see 35,

but it will eventually return to 81, and then 100.

FAZ daily

For now, the bounce was due.

The trend is still on the side of bankster bulls.

However, the math is undeniably bearish no matter

who gets left holding the bag.

Today's Debt Spiral list +/-

FAZ +7.6%

FAS -8.6%

IRE -4.9%

SCGLY -4.6%

BAC -3.5%

BBVA -3.4%

GS -3.4%

MS -3.3%

JPM -3.1%

WFC -2.9%

AIG -2.4%

C -2%

STD -1.8%

HBC -1.6%

RBS -1.2%

NBG -0.7%

DB -0.4%

UBS +0.1%

Tail end: I noted earlier that I was in and out of FAZ three times today. The bounce was due, but holding FAZ overnight is fraught with risk and can wipe out a week or month's worth of profits. Very near term, I don't mind trading FAZ intraday. In a slightly longer time frame (a few days), FAS could explode. Over the longer term, FAZ will prevail and the banksters will collapse in breadth. Consolidation will be the norm. The monetary system will look much different than it is today.

Sleep vs Trading

2011-10-25T11:01:00.000-10:00

10:40 am (Hawaii) Was in and out of FAZ today for a very small loss. Bought FAZ at 44.70, stopped myself out at 43.96. Bought FAZ at 44.80, stopped myself out at 44.96. Bought again at 45.33, stopped myself out at 45.64. FAZ ran above 46 before the bell, then predictably sold off to mid-45. Currently 45.91 after hours.

Between the first trade and later trades, I got a few hours of sleep while the Dow sat in the -90 to -120 range. The Dow finished -207, basically giving back yesterday's gains. October has been a beastly month for bulls, so some profit-taking is normal. But what's exceptional is some of the crashes in certain stocks today.

AMZN -18.6%
FSLR -25.2%
GMCR -13.1%
NFLX -35%
WNR -9.8%
X -9.8%

Precious metals did very well today on solid volume, as Brother Turd forecasted yesterday. AGQ up 10.3% to 63.60. DGP up 5.4% to 57.31. Miners up big. EXK +6.1% to 10.43. GDX +2.4%. SLW +3.4%. XG +7.9%. I still have no interest in trading miners. Too many invisible factors, ie puppeteers.

AAPL was above 406 early, but led the way down (along with copper, NFLX, etc) and is -2.3% to 396+.

FAS vs FAZ

2011-10-25T03:21:00.001-10:00

3:10 am (Hawaii) Been awhile since I stayed up for the opening bell and kept the TV on. I haven't examined FAS and FAZ in almost two days, I think, and it feels more like two years. The market leaps up. The market sinks down. Futures this morning, pre-opening bell, are slightly negative. No real huge news to either direction, just near-term skittishness about a possible delay to the Euro crisis solution. Blahblah.

FAS daily

The run to (near) 15 was almost inevitable. Let's face it - Geithner

didn't travel across Europe for a week to do sightseeing.

Strings were pulled and everybody was on board

for the latest chapter of Fiat Dreamland.

FAS daily

When the EU announces that it will print fiat by the trillions,

14 will be a distant memory.

FAZ daily

Held support at 42 and is bouncing a bit this morning.

FAZ daily

Nothing much to feel bullish about here.

All that's preventing a crash through thin ice at 42

is the lack of a QE-ish announcement in Euroland.

It's hard to enter FAZ here. The deck is rigged, the dealer is cheating and people betting in a pair of deuces are somehow raking in big profits. People? Okay, let's just say they're under orders to stack the deck. Under orders to bet on crap. They're all the same and logic has nothing to do with the results.

The market could melt up through the rest of the year. Or we could see another huge rally get kneecapped with a couple of incredible flash crashes. I'm still all cash.

Monday cinema & library (updated Tue 200 am HST)

2011-10-24T20:19:00.002-10:00

Blogs

Golden Truth: It gets more unbelievable every day (Oct 24)

Le Fly: I've got news for you (Oct 24)

SGS: Just read this (Oct 24)

Le Fly: Gasoline party (Oct 24)

Le Fly: Biggest one moth rally since April 2009 (Oct 24)

Turd Ferguson: There he goes again (Oct 24)

Clive Maund: Silver market update (Oct 24)

Vlogs

(new) JS Kim: Truth Chronicles, Vol. 2: How to take down the banks (Oct 24)

(new) Reggie Middleton: Intellectually aggressive analysis: When big bank goes bad! (Oct 24)

Jim Comiskey: Daily market insights - Metals futures (Oct 24)

Hit the Bid: Krull to Arms (Oct 24)

BrotherJohnF: Silver update - Petrodollar seignorage (Oct 24)

RT: Nigel Farage - House of Commons EU referendum debate (Oct 24)

Weekly Telegram: Zero Hedge and know it all gloomer blogs will keep you bankrupt (Oct 24)

Audio

Turd Ferguson: Guest Jim Comiskey (Oct 22)

Mainstream

RT: EU summit eyes Lisbon Treaty change (Oct 24)
Reuters: Greece is Europe's Bear Stearns, not Lehman (Oct 24)

Reuters: Growing demand lifts Caterpillar (Oct 24)

San Jose Mercury News: Netflix loses 800K subscribers, stock tanks (Oct 24)

FAS vs FAZ (updated 100 pm HST)

2011-10-21T09:59:00.008-10:00

9:41 am (Hawaii) 20 minutes or so left until the closing bell. I got up around 8:30 and saw the Dow up more than 200 points. Just about everything was up, including gold and silver. Interesting how Europe remains dismantled going forward, Greece is 100% on strike, and somehow the markets are up big. Not only big, but the price action in the past hour has been serene. Odd? Smells like plunge protection, absolutely. Another reason to stay on the sidelines.

Below, FAS and FAZ. With the benefit of hindsight, the 7-day surge of August was basically matched by the 7-day dip of October. In FAZ, the big moves sandwiched a few pennants. I've permanently adjusted the first pennant, which was a stretch in previous charts. Now it's clearly a matter of up and down trends in Aug and Oct. A major, huge move is followed in each 7-day move by a bit of consolidation (micro pennant). After the Aug run, price agitated but generally rose higher. This time, price consolidated for several days, but now has broken lower on today's gap down, below the micro pennant and well below the recently formed megaphone channel.

FAZ daily

The previous range of 42 to 51 is in play now.

Merkel and Sarkozy hold the cards but it's the Fed/White House

who is the dealer and the game is absolutely rigged, ain't it?

FAZ daily

Today's gap down sends a message to bankster shorts

but I'm more interested in seeing how cheap FAZ gets.

Is the run done in FAZ? It seems so, but there's no assuming anything. I just try to get some sense of perspective, but there's no way to prognosticate what happens on Monday, let alone November or December.

I felt that FAZ would possibly dip to 44 or 42, maybe lower at some point, before the inevitable re-run to 81 and then 100. I still think it's probable, though the plunge protection of banksters — don't you love how the White House talks down the banks and describes future investigations on top of the current ones just before the plunge protection is enacted? — plants doubt.

FAS daily

Finally broke into a new megaphone range.

Next stop could be 15 though a dash of QE3

would send it much higher.

FAS daily

Doesn't matter who provides the fuel.

This motor is at full throttle as the banksters

truly show who's still in control.

Update 1:02 pm The algos tend to trade on technicals, and this gap up and strong close lead me to believe the machines will pour in on Monday morning, boosting FAS and burying FAZ. Howeverrrrrrrr . . . there is the Euro debt crisis and the supposed talks/resolution/bs coming over the weekend. Anything could happen to trigger a market rally or selloff. So believe what you will and peg your hard-earned fiat currency to it, as you put your money where your mouth is. My mouth is uttering simple words like, "hell no" and "this shit is crazy." So I remain all cash, not trusting anyone or anything.

The banksters have many tricks up their sleeves, but if I can get a pocketful of FAZ at 35 and leave it alone for a year or two, I may do just fine. Sooner or later, the poopoo will hit the fan.

Thursday cinema & library (updated Fri 100 am HST)

2011-10-20T14:48:00.009-10:00

Blogs
(new) RT: Are we headed for another Lehman moment in Europe? (Oct 20)

(new) Zero Hedge: Bill Gross was right - Fed's Tarullo calls for restart of MBS monetization (Oct 20)
Zero Hedge: Merkel cancels Friday govt statement on EFSF (Oct 20)
Reggie Middleton: This bank is much worse than the rest (Oct 20)
Le Fly: There will be rumors of rumors (Oct 20)
Le Fly: All eyes on Italy (Oct 20)
Turd Ferguson: Chart review (Oct 20)
Dan Norcini: Another down day for metals (Oct 20)
SGS: Go take a shot of something before reading this (Oct 19)

Vlogs

(new) endlessmountain: Nonsense - Silver, dollar index, TLT bonds (Oct 21)

(new) MoneyBags73: Massive conflicts of interest at Fed (Oct 20)

(new) Jim Comiskey: Daily market insights - metals futures (Oct 20)

(new) streetmoney21: Bank of America - A lot more reason to get your money out NOW (Oct 20)

(new) Peter Schiff: Listener questions (Oct 20)
RT: Athens chaos: Cop-protester crossfire (Oct 20)
Keiser Report: Live and let fail (Oct 20)

ScrapGoldBusiness: Perth Mint update (Oct 20)

J.S. Kim: Understanding banker manipulation of gold and silver (Oct 20)

bullorbearreport: The revolution has begun! (Oct 20)

RT: 'Killing Gaddafi easy cover-up for West deals' (Oct 20)

Audio
(new) Peter Schiff Radio (Oct 20)

Mainstream

image: Roy De Young

(new) Bloomberg: EU considers wielding $1.3T to break debt crisis impasse (Oct 20)
Euronews: International leaders react to Gaddafi's death (Oct 20)

Daily Mail: 'What did I ever do to you?': What Gaddafi said as he begged for his life (Oct 20)

CBS: Why Steve Jobs refused a potentially life-saving surgery (Oct 20)

Reuters: US equities selloff seen likely in near term (Oct 20)

Reuters: Citigroup's $285M settlement may get 2nd look (Oct 20)

Dylan Ratigan: Audit exposes secrets, corruption of Fed (Oct 19)

Christopher Whalen: Is Bank of America preparing for a Chapter 11? (Oct 19)

Metal bling

999silverhk: Perth Mint - Year of Dragon silver coin (Oct 20)

Eye candy

Street Low: Impala '64 clowning with Desire (Oct 15)

FAS vs FAZ (closing bell edition)

2011-10-20T10:33:00.002-10:00

10:18 am (Hawaii) Euro banks down, US banks up. Well, there's NBG up 1.8%, but that's the exception. Of course it's a lot more fun sitting out than riding a whipsaw roller coaster. Flat, all cash. Stay tuned for the resumption of funny business anytime soon.

FAZ daily

Yesterday, it traded between 51.50 and 52.25 in the late hours.

Today, more like 49 and 50. Too spastic for me.

FAS daily

Pushed higher late in the day but the constant heave and ho

make the closing action irrelevant.

More of the same churning until the next

catalyst/Merkel-Sarkosy rumor/downgrade/etc.

Below, the 2-year charts for FAS and FAZ. Clearly, the time decay effect is what makes both more effective as short-term trading vehicles rather than holds. Over the long haul, traders who shorted both were better off than testing the long side, it would seem.

FAS weekly (2 year)

Hate the banksters or not, over the long term,

those bloodsucking pencil pushers show resiliency.

In other words, they find ways to get their way.

FAZ weekly (2 year)

The "easy" money was made in July.

FAS vs FAZ

2011-10-20T08:32:00.000-10:00

8:19 am (Hawaii) Gridlock on Honolulu's roads and highways. Partly cloudy, moderate trade winds. All is normal for a Thursday morning here. The market looks strapped down, unable to move forward up or down. Indices are flat flat flat. AAPL is down 0.6% to 396+. Precious metals down big (again). Yet FAS is up 1.3%. UBS, WFC, NBC, JPM, C all up. SCGLY, IRE, DB, BBVA, STD all down more than 2%. BAC is down 1.4% to 6.35, which is practically nothing. 5 or 10% moves happen often these days.

FAS and FAZ remain in their ranges. No surprise there. No catalyst, no rocket move. FAZ could be a bargain below 50 or maybe it's just doomed to go lower in this downtrend. FAS could be setting up for a bullish move to 15 and beyond, but the news out of Europe and the US regarding this systemic downfall is far from done. But I remain all cash.

FAZ daily

Another pennant formation? Still perched on a ledge

and not very promising - as it usually is before takeoff.

FAZ daily

Range narrowing, 50 becoming thin ice

FAS daily

Unable to sustain momentum

FAS daily

No direction in sight, 13 still there for the taking

Simple as ABC?

2011-10-20T07:44:00.000-10:00

1:17 am (Hawaii) I like my little charts and trendlines and megaphone and pennant patterns. I like candlesticks too, however reliable (or not) they may be. But it's fun now and then to visit American Bulls for their view of stocks. Here's what they say through their candlestick analysis as of Wed Oct 19:

AAPL - Sell confirmed
AGQ - Sell confirmed
DGP - Sell confirmed
SPY - Sell-if...
QQQ - Sell-if...
QID - Buy confirmed
FCX - Wait
EUO - Buy confirmed

Isn't this interesting? All the indicators (at least in my book) of a bullish short-term view are negative, from AAPL to precious metals to bear indice ETFs. So how about financials?

FAS - Buy-if...
FAZ - Buy-if...

So that confirms the confusion and hesitancy of not just me, but of plenty of traders and investors regarding the banks. No surprise that the bank stocks remain choppy, range-bound and largely untouched lately. Or is that really the case?

BAC - Buy-if...
AIG - Sell-if...
C - Sell-if...
GS - Sell-if...
JPM - Buy-if...
MS - Sell-if...

Less positive than I expected. I don't like the banksters, but even this is more bearish than I would've guessed just by the way they've held up through the past week with JPM and GS announcing far less stellar earnings than expected.

NBG - Wait
IRE - Wait
DB - Buy-if...

There are more Eurozone banks but that's enough. As I fall asleep for the night (and premarket opens in 30 minutes), I'm content to stay the heck out for today. The most bullish thing that could happen is Merkel and Sarkozy release the details of their grand plan to save the European monetary system. That would take the US market and precious metals higher since printing all that fiat money will be nothing but a short-term fix. Then the junkie becomes more dependent on the juice (fiat printing).

Wednesday cinema & library (updated 115 am HST)

2011-10-19T11:20:00.017-10:00

Update 11:45 am (Hawaii) I urge you to give Scott Bleier's latest post a read: 'The entire rally is bullshit'.

"All the low volume volatility of recent weeks has served to scare the remaining individual investors out of the game. The rest of the market has become dominated and overpowered by the correlation between currencies, commodities, stocks and bonds. The programs work in milliseconds to run over any intra-market movements with instantaneous results. By the time you hear or read the news, the market move is over and you as an investor are forced to chase."

Found in the comments of Bleier's blog: Fed/POMO buying $44 billion in Treasurys this month, up from the usual $14-16 billion.

6:35 am (Hawaii) Started this yesterday, but the eyelids wouldn't stay open, so now it's a Wednesday edition. It's been a relatively quiet week of ups (two tiny profit trades on Monday) and one butchered trade on Tuesday. I got FAS at 12.99 before the bell, it went to 13.08 and I debated whether to sell immediately or put in a trailing stop. While I debated myself, it sank to 13.05, then 12.95, then to 12.60. I got out at 12.68 for a small loss. Again, it's not wise to enter late and wing it. Always have a stop in the final minutes of the session especially after the machines have taken anything more than 5% or 10% higher.

It was due for a major selloff and I screwed up. Protect protect protect.

Blogs

(new) RajunCajun: Not feeling it (Oct 19)

(new) Le Fly: Mandatory listening (Oct 19)

Scott Bleier: The entire rally is bullshit (Oct 19)

Zero Hedge: FT reports Europe to sacrifice banks to bail out sovereigns (Oct 19)

Le Fly: Zero reasons to be long (Oct 19)

Zero Hedge: Now Bundestag demands a say (Oct 19)

Zero Hedge: Latest European (fake?) news: EFSF talks have stalled (Oct 19)

Turd Ferguson: Beyond the pale (Oct 19)

Golden Truth: This is why we own gold - 10,000 reasons (Oct 19)

Reggie Middleton: The only investment/research house to warn of Apple miss vindicated (Oct 18)

Reggie Middleton: Just as predicted, world's first FDIC insured hedge fund takes fat loss (Oct 18)

Le Fly: Burn it all to the ground! (Oct 18)

Turd Ferguson: Silver bull market of 2012 (Oct 18)

Golden Truth: Bank of America takes sleaze to new level (Oct 18)

Golden Truth: Bank of America takes accounting fraud a step further (Oct 18)

Chris Duane (Silver Shield): Great minds think alike? (Oct 18)

Vlogs

UKIP: Nigel Farage - Standing up for British business (Oct 19)

DEMCAD: Bank of America on verge of failure? (Oct 19)

ScrapGoldBusiness: Is JP Morgan ready to crash silver again? (Oct 19)

endlessmountain: Silver Log - Midweek report (Oct 19)

Christopher Greene: I am extremely concerned (Oct 19)

Casey Research: Guest Rick Rule (Oct 19)

Casey Research: Guest Eric Sprott (Oct 19)

Hit the Bid: Krull to Arms - Is your Mac working? (Oct 19)

drutter: Occupy Vancouver, silver canoe porn (Oct 18)

Chris Garcia: Gold and silver news (Oct 18)

StreetMoney21: Bank of America - Are they getting ready to soak US taxpayers again? (Oct 18)

Keiser Report: Live by fraud, die by fraud (Oct 18)

silverfuturist: Silver to peak 2017-20? (Oct 16)

Audio

Peter Schiff: Guest Sen. Rand Paul (Oct 19)

Chris Martenson: Guest Nate Hagens (Oct 19)

Mainstream

(video) Reuters: Difficult for EU bailout fund to cover Italy & Spain - poll (Oct 19)

(video) Press TV: Max Keiser: 'US bankers stole billions' (Oct 19)

(video) Euronews: EU probes interbank lending rates (Oct 19)

(video) RT: First video of Athens night clashes as Greece fights austerity (Oct 19)

Reuters: Morgan Stanley can thank brokerage, banking (Oct 19)

Bloomberg: BofA said to split regulators over moving Merrill derivatives to bank unit (Oct 18)

CNBC: Apple misses big on earnings, shares tumble (Oct 18)
CNBC: Greeks work hard, so why is there a debt crisis? (Oct 18)

Paul Farrell: Weiss: EU bank failures will crash Wall St - again (Oct 18)

Globe and Mail: Sprott makes bet on different kind of bank (Oct 17)

Eye candy

Street Low: Carnales Unidos Car Show (Oct 19)

Street Low: Models dancing at Carnales Unidos Car Show (Oct 18)

Street Low: LuxuriouS CC, Mike's Beef n' Brew Car & Bike Show (Oct 18)

FAS vs FAZ

2011-10-19T08:56:00.002-10:00

8:46 am (Hawaii) Woke up 6:15 to see the market flat and I was satisfied to get a good night's rest. Then I looked at FAS. I sold it yesterday for a loss at 12.68. It ran to 13.32 or so today before pulling back to the 12.68 level. I guess I missed that gain if sleep is not necessary. I know I've had sleep debt for the past week or so. Getting that sleep back helps. I was terribly off-center yesterday due to that shortage of rest, plus not eating right/enough.

Today I feel better, have some time off and just watched FAZ leave a flat market behind, running from an early low at 46.90 to a high of 50.91. Pulled back now to 50.05. When I got up, it was around 49, then made its run. What's interesting is that it's bouncing without any legit volume. That tells me this bounce won't last, but Greece is on fire and bankster stocks are declining again. It's just a yoyo market. The effect of Sarkozy and Merkel "agreeing" to a deal yesterday has no lasting effect. Not even 24 hours.

FAS daily

This megaphone level is a tough one to crack

FAS daily

Dead man hanging, 1+ hour left today

FAZ daily

Hanging off a cliff, but rallying

FAZ daily

The trend is down but can it hold at 49-50?

AAPL shocker

I regretted selling at 377 a couple of weeks ago

Now? Not so much

No rhyme, no reason

2011-10-18T06:21:00.000-10:00

6:14 am (Hawaii) Really. Besides AAPL, which got up to 422+ and is now back at 420+, there's no valid reason for the fluctuations in FAS, FAZ, AGQ, DGP and most of the market. Do you really believe BAC and GS tell the truth? Yet, somewhere in that vortex, there's got to be a calculable pattern or rhythm to this seemingly random action.

For now, FAS is back up and ranging through the current megaphone level. FAZ is doing the same on the downside. Churn churn churn. I'm glad I slept in and stayed in cash. Still keeping an eye on AAPL.

FAZ daily

Short-term uptrend has been breached

FAS daily

Staying above 12 today

FAS vs FAZ

2011-10-17T21:57:00.000-10:00

9:46 pm (Hawaii) FAZ has the edge. After that 7-session demolition, FAZ is on a clear uptrend. 55-56 is a key level and has been since FAZ broke out in August. Can't predict jack here. Merkel could drop another white lie and send the markets up, which would result in FAZ revisiting 50 and below. But for now, nobody's buy the BS out of Europe.

FAZ daily

Ready to break out of the lowest megaphone of the past two months?

FAZ daily

After 3 pennants, price action of the past two weeks

has been radically directional.

FAS daily

Price touched the top line of its current megaphone,

then ran out of fuel after a major rally.

Currently testing that lower megaphone line at 11.30 or so.

Merkel, Sarkozy & little white lies (update 1:35 pm HST)

2011-10-17T08:47:00.006-10:00

8:40 am (Hawaii) Starting to hate thinking about trades due to headline risk, ie political posturing, ie (necessary?) white lies about the future. So Sarkozy and Merkel say one thing publicly and fight a losing battle behind closed doors. The German people don't want to fund anybody else's party, let alone another nation's. But politics continues to move the markets. My new motto: they're all lying and the charts prove it.

SPY 15-minute, 2 week chart

Pop goes the balloon.

Can Sarkozy/Merkel patch it again?

FAZ daily

55 on the radar

Since my last FAZ chart, I've added a lower megaphone line to account for the new recent low sub-50. Since the downtrend of 6 down days in 7 sessions, price seems comfortable in this new range with 55 as a key level.

Update 1:35 pm Back at the desk after doing some of my work outside (therapeutic to say the least). I bought FAZ earlier at 56.00 and sold at 56.08, them bought again at 56.35 and sold at 56.55 afterhours. Both times I used stop orders, once on the downside and the other on a potential upside. I like FAZ, obviously, but with AAPL reporting tomorrow and the potential of Goldman Sachs and Bank of America lying (again) during their earnings reports tomorrow, stay 100% cash is good enough. Besides, FAZ often works better as a day trade rather than an overnight hold.

Looking to enter AAPL, which is at 419+ afterhours, down 0.7% today.

A little angry, a little ... sad?

2011-10-14T17:30:00.004-10:00

5:08 pm (Hawaii) Horrid decisions here. AAPL ran to 421+ by the close after I bailed out at 419.07, doubting my initial thought that it would be bought up strong before the bell. Meanwhile, I entered FAS at 12.40, saw it run above 12.50, then failed to protect my gain and sold at 12.20. From there, FAS dipped a little more, then ran to 12.47 at the close. It's not the issue of losing $250 combined in these two trades — not a ton of capital. It's just my pathetic timing and lack of execution.

All in all, a horrible final hour of decisions here and I feel as duped and foolish as I have in a long, long time. It wasn't just the final hour, but the entire week. I'd be in the right place, get decent entry point opportunities, but execute poorly on the front end (entry) and/or back end (exit). This weekend is a real pivotal time for me to decide whether I'm getting back to to pulling the trigger and protect my gains in this choppy market, or just stop trying to quick trade entirely. I'm getting nicked to death.

It was the best week in the indices in a long time, and I had a terrible week. It doesn't matter what you think. It matters what you do. And I did badly. Case in point: I noted that holding FAZ (or FAS) overnight doesn't necessarily pay off because often the gap up is smaller than the gain during the trading session. FAZ was 51.11 at the close on Wednesday, opened on Thursday (premarket) above 52 and hit an intraday high of 55.95. Yet I bought in late Thursday and caught a $1.50 or so loss in the morning.

This week, I was a trading version of a choking football team, driving to the 1-yard line most of the night, only to fumble or throw a pick almost every time.

If I can't compete with an index ETF like SPY (up almost 5% this week), there's no point to trading this way. Or at all. Yet, if I had protected myself, let winners ride, my gains since last week would've beaten any index by far, ie AAPL from 379 to 422 would've been an 11.3% gain and FAS from 11.09 to 12.47 would've been +12.4%.

I suspect I'm not the only trader who got chopped up this week, uncertain of market direction. Thing is, who gives a shit whether I agree with the direction? Just need to recognize it and go with it, not get spooked out. It starts with protecting gains and entering at proper (low) points. I did this a few times, but not quite enough. Being a hater of the banksters is fine and good, but I allowed this hate to cloud my vision of reality — that the market was bullish nearly every day, that Europe is about to print fiat currency to oblivion, and thus boost the markets at a rate we may never have witnessed before.

Maybe Yoda is right.

Fear is the path to the dark side.

Fear leads to anger.

Anger to hate.

Hate to suffering.

Not afraid I am.

Afternoon Apples

2011-10-14T08:32:00.001-10:00

8:29 am (Hawaii) It's still morning here, but let me get to the Apple bottom of this post. I opened a small position in AAPL at 419.50. Not looking for a quick gain here, just looking ahead, though I'm not keen on holding anything over the weekend. Should I have held my position at 379 from last week? I sold that at 377+. Not quite as bad as selling at 106 for an $11/share gain a few years back.

1-minute AAPL

Steady, powerful run since early profit taking

Update 9:17 am Added more AAPL at 420.00, it went to 420.28, but sold off and I got out at 419.07 for a teeny loss. Once it broke that lower trendline, I didn't want to stick around after this hot run from 354 two weeks ago. A lot of room for downside, but if it happens, should be only temporary.

Rome is not burning - yet

2011-10-14T05:37:00.000-10:00

5:34 am (Hawaii) This may or may not have anything to do with the market or FAZ, but it's intriguing to imagine what more of this portends for bankster stocks in the very near future. Students in Italy protesting at Goldman Sachs in Milan.

What downgrades? (updated 640 am HST)

2011-10-14T02:53:00.013-10:00

2:53 am (Hawaii) I wrote yesterday that it's far better to wait for premarket than to own FAZ overnight. Example: FAZ closed Wednesday at 51.11, opened at 52+ and ran to 55.95. But I bought yesterday after the closing bell at 54.42 on Fitch's downgrades and "negative watch" on several major banks. But this morning, retail numbers were "better than expected" and shot FAZ down below 53. I got out at 52.50 with a loss that was totally avoidable. It's temporary, no matter how fake the numbers are, no matter what the "revisions" are.

Just can't fight the trend. Futures are up +100 and it's feeling more and more like a 2010 Melt Up. I'll be watching GOOG, which is trading above 600 after yesterday's earnings home run, and FAS. If they can milk it higher based on nothing of substance, I'm not going to fight it.

FAZ started premarket trading (2:00 am HST) around 52.50 and was near 53.00 when the retail news hit, and it sold off right down to 52.15 before bouncing a little. Sheer momentum can take it down $5 without a problem. Yesterday, it traded down to Fib levels after popping. Today, it's at the mercy of the market.

Update 3:41 am Opened a position in FAS at 12.45.

Update 4:01 am Out of FAS 12.40. Was up to 12.63, but the laptop shut down and the desktop took awhile to load up my trading platform. Tiny loss.

Update 4:25 am Dow still up more than 100 points, but FAZ made a huge snapback rally from 50.89 to 53.91. The white line below indicates where I sold in premarket. The harder they push it down, the harder it snaps back. Finnies went from almost all green on my Debt Spiral list to more than half red. The market can't stay up for long with the financials down, right?

FAZ 1-minute

Unpredictable? Think so

Update 4:50 am So much happened in the FAS/FAZ war. It's more like a battle, but what a battle. The first several minutes were volatile, but the run by FAZ continued to 54.33. No way I could get in. Actually I almost went in around 52.20ish, but I hesitated and it went parabolic like few things I've ever seen. (The AAPL post-market earnings report a year or two ago comes to mind when it shot past 350 like a meteor.) The chart below is more fun stuff. Interesting to see what FAZ does here. Plunge back lower? Go back higher?

The Dow is +91, fairly stable today despite the huge moves in financials. Right now, only four are green and the rest on my Debt Spiral list are red, though just fractionally. I knew in my gut it made NO SENSE for FAZ to go down to 53 or 52, let alone below 51, so there was some freaking shenanigans going on to prop up finnies early this morning. After all those downgrades and warnings from Fitch, how could they not go lower today? But I just didn't have the conviction to stay long FAZ with 54.42 as an entry point. Still need to learn strict price discipline and steer clear of the yadayada crazy momentum swings.

52+ proved to be a buying opportunity yesterday. Today it was 51. So far today I mean.

FAZ 1-minute

What happens with extreme

price point channels intersect?

6:37 am Back in FAZ at 53.85, saw it go to 54.07, but it broke the trendline lower and I got out at 53.60, tiny loss. Went down to 53.30+. I should've stuck with 53.53 as an entry point (one of yesterday's Fib levels). It's struggling to stay above the higher Fib level, 54.04.

FAZ 1-minute

Lunch hour action is slower but still volatile

Thursday cinema & library (updated 1000 pm HST)

2011-10-13T21:15:00.004-10:00

Orpheum Theater, Memphis, Tennessee

Blogs
Golden Truth: Legalized fraud (Oct 13)

Dan Norcini: Gold still being held by $1680 (Oct 13)

Le Fly: Flirting with disaster (Oct 13)

SGS: Trade on, trade off (Oct 13)

Zero Hedge: Foreigners dump $74 billion in Treasurys in 6 consecutive weeks (Oct 13)
Le Fly: Coming soon: Horrific destruction (Oct 13)

Zero Hedge: 'Book-cooking' index soards to all-time highs (Oct 13)

Zero Hedge: So much for EURUSD breaking 1.38: S&P cuts Spain to AA- from AA (Oct 13)
Rajun Cajun: Winner winner chicken dinner (Oct 13)

Zero Hedge: Fitch downgrades UBS, puts MS, BAC, GS on watch negative (Oct 13)
Zero Hedge: Google surges afterhours on big top and bottom line beat (Oct 13)

Le Fly: Tired bull (Oct 13)

Turd Ferguson: Deflating inflation (Oct 13)

Zero Hedge: David Rosenberg: Action is always at margin... and margin is not pretty (Oct 13)

Zero Hedge: Work in banking? Find out if you will be laid off (Oct 13)

Zero Hedge: Van Rompuy, Barroso announce 440-billion Euro EFSF fully functional (Oct 13)

James Altucher: 7 things happen to you when you are completely honest (Oct 12)

Golden Truth: So far 'Operation Twist' is colossal failure (Oct 12)

Doug Kass: 10 questions for the bears (Oct 10)
Doug Kass: 10 questions for the bulls (Oct 10)
James Altucher: I lost $5 million this morning (Sept 24)

Vlogs
(new) Young Turks: CNN's Burnett: Root for the banks! (Oct 13)

Keiser Report: Dog & Pony Show (Oct 13)

StormCloudsGathering: The chain of obedience (Oct 13)

Standard Rebellion: How many more occupations? (Oct 13)

Luke Rudkowski: Michael Moore, Take 2 (Oct 13)

theeastwatch: N. Korea too?!? WTF (Oct 13)

Realist News: Why NOT to play the paper silver SLV or gold GLD game (Oct 13)

GuildF40: Slovakia agrees to expand European bailout fund (Oct 13)

Realist News: JPMorgan's fraud accounting practices produces great 3rd quarter (Oct 13)

Realist News: Is Mexico's 92 tons of gold gone? (Oct 13)

SilverGuild: Gold as money across the US (Oct 13)

ScrapGoldBusiness: Silver shortage - Perth Mint out of silver? (Oct 13)

Alexiscom1: No gold in Fort Knox, CFTC limits, Alessio Rastani on GS (Oct 13)

Chris Duane (Silver Shield): The ultimate exit strategy (Oct 12)

Jim Comiskey: Daily market insights - metals futures (Oct 12)

NewAmericaNow: I am not moving (Oct 10)

Audio

Peter Schiff: Guest Andrew Napolitano (Oct 13)

Chris Martenson: Guest Rob Hopkins (Oct 13)

ScrapGoldBusiness: This was someone's home (Oct 13)

Mike Broomhead: Guest Gerald Celente (Oct 10)

Mainstream

CNBC: European stocks to open flat, Spain rating cut (Oct 14)

Financial Times: ECB did all it could to stem crisis: Trichet (Oct 14)

Bloomberg: Hairy crab as sign of China food inflation (Oct 14)

(video) (new) Sky News: Nigel Farage and Sharon Bowles (Oct 13)

(video) (new) RT: Nigel Farage on European bailouts (Oct 13)

(video) (new) Euronews: Greek general strike to be extended (Oct 13)

(new) Bloomberg: Spain credit rating cut by S&P on weak outlook (Oct 13)
(new) Bloomberg: Greek investors brace for bigger loss to stop rot (Oct 13)
(new) Bloomberg: Buffett's son defends Occupy Wall St protests (Oct 13)

Keith Olbermann: Americans support of Occupy Wall St movement growing (Oct 13)

Reuters: Gold flat, Spain downgrade may weigh (Oct 13)

CNBC: Euro zone crisis set to dominate G20 meeting in Paris (Oct 13)

CNBC: JPMorgan investment bank avoids crisis, for now (Oct 13)

Reuters: JPMorgan quarterly profit falls, will cut 1,000 jobs (Oct 13)

Reuters: 'Lehman moment' could be trigger for US economic renewal (Oct 13)

Bloomberg: Google results, business outlook, Apple, Zynga (Oct 13)

CNBC: How Finland could bring Euro's demise (Oct 13)

(video) (new) UKIP Media: Nigel Farage: Slovak vote no to bailout (Oct 12)

BNN: Apple co-founder buys gold (Oct 12)

Live
(new) Bloomberg TV

FAS vs FAZ

2011-10-13T11:14:00.001-10:00

11:00 am (Hawaii) When the general of JPM accosts the general of the Fed, as he did a few months ago, he is likely pissed off. He knows a day like today will arrive, when JPM's iron vice grip of the financial world becomes less than perfect. Dominion? All the "connections" and funding in the world get the banksters what they want. It just doesn't happen quite as often on a day like today. Who knows, maybe the Fed and EU announce complete recklessness and start printing into hyperflation tomorrow, and JPM and every global bank is happy. For now, FAS's tear to the upside has stalled. My only reservation about FAZ's rebound today is lame volume. It sure wasn't convincing.

FAS daily and weekly

The run toward 14 and 15 has stalled

FAS daily

A lot of selling today, but volume on the downside wasn't deathly

FAZ daily

Megaphone action: price back in line? The fugly downtrend of the

previous 7 sessions has been broken but soft volume today is a thorn.

Update 7:32 pm Re-entered a position in FAZ 54.45 after the closing bell.

DCA FAZ? (updated 1032 am HST)

2011-10-13T05:24:00.029-10:00

5:12 am (Hawaii) Sure I thought about it yesterday. After three days of buying FAZ late in the session, why stop yesterday? FAZ was cheaper than it's been in weeks. Six of the seven previous sessions had FAZ much, much lower, below 49 intraday yesterday. But I expected JPM to knock it out of the park with their earnings report this morning.

Another late night at work. I get to be right away, around midnight. I never thought to set the alarm for 1:00 am Hawaii time and hear about JPM's announcement. They missed? Are you kidding? That set the stage for FAZ, which had closed just below 51 yesterday. FAZ popped in premarket (2:00 am HST) to 52+. I was sound asleep. Otherwise, I would've opened a position.

So I just got up and now FAZ is at 55+ even after a minor selloff. This turn of events is really shocking. Not only did it give FAZ the push and fuel it needed to gap up today, it gives the price a desperately needed bounce on the technicals. I can't say the chart "never lies" but in this case, this was due, even though I saw a real possibility of FAZ going to much lower support levels. One way to beat price gyrations is to add shares without timing, just dollar cost average. Sounds crazy with a 3x monster like FAZ, but buying at 50 and 55 will probably turn into a nice profit eventually. Waiting for 37 (one-year low) might not work as well.

FAZ is up 9% already today. The Dow is down well over 100 points. Not the optimum time to step in but it won't get a whole lot cheaper. Might wait for East Coast lunch hour to see how FAZ trades next. FAS vs FAZ today is a first round knocktout. I never would've thunk it. JPM went down for the count. Could there be a surprise in the financials the next week or two with more earnings reports? Doesn't seem likely, does it?

Holding my nose as I enter small...

Update 5:28 am FAZ at 55.40 level. A Fib retracement of this morning's gain would bring FAZ down to 54.04. That's a 38.2% drop. I don't expect more than that. Other stocks might pull back 50% or 61.8% or more. FAZ? Nope.

Update 5:32 am I'm looking a little more at this morning's action in FAZ. How the hell did it stay below 53 until after the opening bell? It was as low as 52.30 about 20 minutes before the bell. That's not bad, a 2% gain over yesterday's close, but really. I'm still all cash, watching FAZ dip slowly. Waiting for 54.04. Not expecting it, but it's near lunch hour and sometimes opportunity enters.

Update 5:45 am Still not in FAZ. Still being patient. Waiting for opportunity. FAZ wouldn't dip below 54.32 on an earlier, small selloff, so why would it drop to 54.04 or so? Just hoping lunch hour does the trick. I've written countless times that FAZ will go to 100 given all the realities of this effed up monetary system. I just thought it might dip to 55, 50, 44 or even 42 first. I guess the high 48s was as low as it goes. Still wondering if there's any trickeration left in the banksters' sleeves.

1-minute chart with a bunch of uncertainty at 55.15.

Update 5:57 am String of indecision on the 5-minute candles starting at 11:25 am Eastern. FAZ now at 55.10. Still waiting.

Update 6:32 am Still waiting, though at 12:33 pm Eastern, FAZ has moved back up to 55.50. HOD is 55.95 and a move above that will spur more buying as the Dow drops again, now -121. My preference for 54.04 is just fading hope.

FAZ 15-minute: retracement watch

From 51.11 (yesterday's close) to 55.95 (today's high).

I prefer an entry around 54.04 (Fib pullback).

After declining from 81 to sub 49 in seven sessions,

55-56 is probably a bargain.

Update 6:42 am What a difference a day makes. Looks like financials shot their load yesterday after a massive one-week run. So far today? RBS -7.5%, JPM -6.5%, -DB -6.5%, C -6.2%, MS -6%, IRE -6%, BAC -6%, SCGLY -5.7%, AIG -4.9%, BBVA -4%, GS -3.7%, STD -1.4%, HBC -1.2%, NBG -0.4%.

FAZ is at 55.45, +8.5%.

Update 7:10 am Top of the hour to now, FAZ declining. Price is coming in toward my desired entry point. The speed of the drop is almost breathtaking though. Profit-taking yes. CNBC (Pisani) talking up JPM's increased Visa revenues may have factored in. Fib 38.2% retrace of today's gain: 54.04. A Fib 50% retrace: 53.53. Give or take a few cents.

FAZ 30-minute

54.04 entry?

53.53 would be next

Update 7:46 am Buy order at 54.04 executed. Might regret this. Again, 50% retracement of today's gain in FAZ is 53.53 and a 61.8% retrace goes to 52.96.

Position is small, still debating whether to add at 53.53 if the opportunity is presented. Might just exit and wait for 52.96.

FAZ 30-minute

Added horizontal lines to clarify my Fib levels:

54.04, 53.53, 52.96.

Anything lower would be nicer.

Update 7:59 am FAZ rose to around 54.40, hovering lower now. Stop order is in at 54.14. If FAZ pulls back, I'll sell with a teeny profit and price would likely come back to my 54.04 entry point. Then I'd wait for 53.53 or 52.96.

Thought this was fitting. The Monopoly game is back at McDonald's. Banksters everywhere campaign.

Update 8:21 am Stopped out of FAZ at 54.07, break-even trade. Looking at 53.53 here (50% retracement of today's gain) for a re-entry point. Not setting a buy order yet, though. Definitely not looking at FAS. Today's news out of JPM casts a shadow over the sector's earning reports in the next week.

Update 8:49 am Plunge-o. FAZ falls through 54.04 and straight to 53.53. Not buying yet. Back up to 53.75. I'll wait this out a bit. A 50% retrace of today's gain might be a crucial pivot point. It touched 53.53 for just seconds before rising higher again. But if bankster stocks rally, these Fib levels won't matter. Ah, 52+ in premarket would've been sweet...

Update 8:55 am

FAZ 30-minute

Bounced off 53.53ish level

Falling back to 53.53 level, then to 53.38 seconds later

Next Fib level to watch is 52.96. Anything below that and all bets are off for me. I'm all cash and I wouldn't touch FAZ if it sells off below that level.

Update 9:06 am Dow rally, -11 now. FAZ plunges below 53. That was quick. Just watching here. How does JPM's failed numbers translate into a rally for the market and bankster stocks? Not looking for an answer. Just trying to stay ahead of the madness.

Update 9:08 am FAZ: stay out for awhile. Dropped to 52.62.

FAZ 30-minute

Giving up a majority of today's gain.

Funny money or not, the market is getting some PPT fuel

to save the banksters from further bleeding.

Or something very similar.

Update 9:26 am Back in FAZ, small position, at 54.00. The move from 52.62 to 54+ on strong volume was persuasive. Dow back to -57. Tight stop in place.

FAZ 30-minute

Fib level 52.96 sorta held after a dip to 52.62.

Stop in place.

Time for a break.

Update 9:49 am Added more FAZ at 54.15 before I walked away for a few minutes. Moved my stop up, a little tighter.

Update 9:57 am Stopped out 53.60, small loss. Volume into the close fairly strong as FAZ declined a bit. Dow -39. Content to be all cash overnight.

Update 10:08 am So did FAZ hold Fib levels today? Yes and no. 54.04 didn't last. Neither did 53.53. 52.96 succumbed, but that was temporary and FAZ rode higher to 54.42. The dip going into the closing bell raises a few questions, but price is still above the 50% retracement level, which for me is slightly bullish for FAZ.

Is holding FAZ overnight through financials earnings season worth it? FAZ was at 51.11 yesterday, opened premarket at 52+, and ran to 55.95. Majority of the run came after premarket began even though it was King Kong JPM that disappointed. Waiting for premarket is probably the best method. On the other hand, FAZ had sold down six of the previous seven sessions, was at a recent low and was due for a bounce off 51 (or yesterday's intraday low below 49). At 53+, still bouncing?

FAZ 30-minute

Settling into a level that's slightly bullish.

Update 10:28 am Back in FAZ 54.42. Fitch putting some Euro banks on downgrade watch per CNBC. I'd like this position to stand through the next week and beyond on the way to 100, but I have no problem getting out on a move lower. These small losses in the 50s pale in comparison to an entry point below 50 (or 40) and a climb back to the high (81) or above.

Update 10:32 am CNBC: 7 global banks put on "ratings watch negative" by Fitch, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley in the US, BMP Paribas, Barclays, Credit Suisse and Deutche Bank in Euroland.

Wednesday cinema & library

2011-10-12T16:01:00.000-10:00

Bill James

Blogs
Reggie Middleton: Why occupy Wall St when you can control Wall St? (Ot 12)
SGS: David Fingold - EU needs $5 trillion (Oct 12)
Turd Ferguson: What do you make of this? (Oct 12)

Vlogs

Reggie Middleton: How the common man can control Wall St (Oct 12)
Nigel Farage: Barroso in bunker planning world domination (Oct 12)
GuildF40: Gold chart - Why I think we're going down for now (Oct 12)
Realist News: Lots of important news (Oct 12)
DEMCAD: Dex predicts major market crash, violence at Occupy Wall St?! (Oct 12)
Keiser Report: Pain in the asset (Oct 12)
endlessmountain: Rant - Gambling and investing (Oct 12)
Casey Research: Guest Rick Rule (Oct 12)
ScrapGoldBusinees: Chase Bank - Now a $20 monthly checking fee? (Oct 12)

Mainstream
Wall St Journal: JP Morgan earnings preview: Four themes to watch (Oct 12)
(video) BNN: Fingold - EU needs $5 trillion (Oct 12)
Reuters: Fed thinks hard about next steps (Oct 12)

If you're not lying . . .

2011-10-12T14:50:00.016-10:00

2:11 pm (Hawaii) . . . you're not trying hard enough. Right? How else to explain how bankster stocks ripped higher today, other than non-news out of Europe and vast amounts of cash entering the market despite an obvious recession on both sides of the pond. (I realize that stock markets have risen higher during some recessions.)

Here's a look at FAS (12.70) and FAZ (50.98), which I traded today with mixed results. Had I left my shares of FAS alone (entry points 12.31 and 12.42), today's profit would've been nice. But I left FAS too early on both occasions, and the overnight trade on FAZ didn't work, of course, as financials soared. NBG +10.6%, AIG +6.2%, DB +5.8%, C +4.9%, BBVA +4.3%, BAC +3.3%, RBS (+3.1%), HBC (+2.9%), MC (+2.9%), JPM (+2.8%), GS (+2.5%), IRE (+1.2%), STD +0.01%. (My Debt Spiral list is not showing SCGLY price.)

FAS up 7.3% and FAZ down 7%. Getting out of FAZ at 53+ with a small loss was wise in hindsight, but I underestimated the strength of the banksters. They not only rallied, but they pushed FAZ below its recent intraday low of 50.10 (Aug 31). The next support level, if there is such a thing, might be at 46.60, followed by 43.20, 41.40, 38.85 and 37.05. Or has FAZ actually held here at 50? Hmmmm...

FAZ daily: Falling off a cliff?

On the other end, FAS has immense space above. I speculated yesterday that without any anti-bankster news in Europe, it could go to 14+ shortly. But above 15-16, the potential is huge. The last time QE flushed through the financials, stock prices exploded. Nobody gave a rat's ass about whether the fiat paper was backed by real money or not. The same is likely to happen here and now with Great Britain and other Eurozone nations ready and wiling to print monopoly money ad infinitum. For the first time in three days, I did not open a small, late-day position in FAZ due to the illogical nature of the market. But I've also longed to have shares at 55 and 50 or even 42 and 44, so the opportunity is here.

Barring overnight catastrophe in Europe, FAZ, which dipped as low as 48.55 today, could easily kiss the lower levels. But the lower FAZ goes, the sharper the snapback on the next round of Euro crisis. It'll happen at some point regardless of what Merkel and Sarkozy can patch together in the short term. Maybe I'll just wait for 37. No doubt the banksters and politicians can lie for much longer, but it's like holding your breath; sooner or later, someone's got to breathe. Everyone's got to breathe, and the ponzi scheme will be dismantled.

FAS 1-minute and daily charts

Did I think 13.00 could happen? Yes. Did I chicken out and bail below 12.50? Yes.

The daily looks happy with today's gap up, strong volume and a clear route to 14 and 15.

FAZ 1-minute and daily charts

Pure fugliness in the 1-minute though the late-day rally intrigues.

The daily had been pure megaphone action, totally bullish.

This is the first extended downtrend in months. Not good.

FAZ daily

End of pennant action?

FAZ daily

A mean, steep, ugly downtrend with no end in sight.

Buy fugly? Not today. I'm all cash for now.

Since August, no downtrend has lasted more than 7 days.

Update 3:13 pm JPMorgan reports tomorrow. Is there any doubt they'll announce that, once again, they made money EVERY DAY of the past quarter? Those effers, love 'em or hate 'em, own their shit and they rule most of the world. Betting against them, at least overnight, would be crrrraaaaaaaaaazzy.

Update 3:26 pm I expect a gap up in FAS, JPM and most bankster stocks in the morning, followed by some profit-taking off this huge three-day run by financials. Why didn't I stay long? Europe headline risk. And it's not easy to gauge this rumor about JPM and MS pulling out of the banking business. My take is that this is bullish for both, but I'm not putting money where my mouth is on this. Once JPM's earnings report is out (7 am ET), I expect selling at some point late in premarket trading or just after the opening bell.

JPM, the crown prince of banksters, leading off financial earnings reports? That's like Babe Ruth leading off for the '27 Yankees instead of hitting cleanup. These things don't happen by chance. There's a reason why JPM is leading off when it could easily go lower in the lineup to boost finnies' momentum.

This runup in bankster stocks and FAS is beginning to smell a bit fishy here, but a few squirts of their magical liars cologne should please traders for awhile longer.

Forces not of our universe

2011-10-12T07:01:00.003-10:00

7:00 am (Hawaii) Slowly, then boom, over and over. FAZ is now at 12.89, and I missed most of it. I got in at 12.31, stopped myself out at 12.23 just before the opening bell. Once the bell rang, it shot straight up. Later I got in at 12.41, rode it to 12.70, but it tanked suddenly from 12.60 to 12.50, I got out at 12.47. Shook out! (I really should've just taken the small profit at 12.60+.) I'm no match for the wild action, even though generally FAZ has just gone up. A lot of pendulum swings, but it's nearing 13.00 (+9%), which I sort of expected after watching it for a few hours.

Now it's afternoon on the East Coast and there's not a bear in sight. On this latest push higher, I wanted FAZ on a pullback to 12.80. No luck. No doubt the big boys are shredding the shorts again and again.

Nobody at the wheel

2011-10-12T02:29:00.003-10:00

FAZ 1-minute premarket

Middling around 53.60

2:29 am (Hawaii) Futures are slightly up while FAS and FAZ appear to be drifting without solid direction. Though FAZ is down 2.2% to 53.61, it's up from a premarket low around 53.25. Premarket is usually lacking volume but this is a raft adrift in a calm sea. It could become tumultuous soon enough.

I can toy with lines and trends all I like, but it doesn't make me more certain about any direction.

Update 2:46 am Out of FAZ at 53.25 for a loss of 1.69/share. Small loss, and keeping it small. I like the price but with Europe giving superficial signs of stabilizing just a bit, it's an uphill climb for FAZ this morning.

FAS vs FAZ

2011-10-11T15:43:00.003-10:00

What to make of this now? Will Slovakia stick it to the ECU in a second vote? Is it just political posturing and maneuvering? Will it be solved by the opening bell tomorrow? Questions, questions, questions.

FAZ daily: Bounce off 55 to 57 was promising

early today but the cave-in to 53.50 (then to 56) was not.

FAS daily: Still testing that megaphone trendline to the upside.

My guess is FAS could get a boost from Euro fiat printing news

and hit 15 before collapsing again.

Wednesday cinema & library (updated Thur 100 am HST)

2011-10-11T14:02:00.009-10:00

Blogs
(new) Zero Hedge: Senate votes to block Obama jobs plan (Oct 11)

(new) SGS: More smoke and mirrors (Oct 11)

Le Fly: The WNR grows (Oct 11)
Le Fly: A pullback is in the cards (Oct 11)
Cain Thaler: Lazy afternoon glance (Oct 11)
Scott Bleier: Don't think (Oct 11)
Rajun Cajun: 1190 brick wall (Oct 11)
SGS: CFTC has enough votes to pass position limits (Oct 11)
Turd Ferguson: A rally cometh? (Oct 11)
Dan Norcini: Commodity complex reflecting more optimism related to European bailout plan (Oct 11)
Chris Duane (Silver Shield): Silver cheerleaders only cheered for physical (Oct 10)

Vlogs

(new) Keiser Report: Ground Zero of financial terrorism (Oct 11)

(new) BrotherJohnF: Peak Silver (Oct 11)

silverfuturist: Globalism and silver: Who rules you? (Oct 11)

H1INC: The damage is done (Oct 11)

GRTV: War on whistleblowers - Sibel Edmonds (Oct 11)

Realist News: Lindsey Williams on radio shows soon (Oct 11)

SilverCircleMovie: Occupy the Federal Reserve begins (Oct 11)

Keiser Report: Bank of NY Mellon defrauding pensioners (Oct 11)

Christopher Greene: End the Fed revolution, jail bankers now! (Oct 11)

RT: End the Fed: 'Revolution has come to America' (Oct 11)

Christopher Greene: Expect bank runs, food shortages, collapse of US bond mkt (Oct 10)

streetmoney21: Merkel/Sarkozy, the modern day Heckle & Jeckle, selling crack pipe dream (Oct 10)

Audio

Mainstream

(new) Business Insider: Fed minutes come out later today (Oct 12)

(new) Huffington Post: 'Occupy' banking protests set to spread to London (Oct 12)

(new) Business Insider: China has already retaliated for currency vote in Senate (Oct 12)

(new) Business Insider: End of the Eurozone (Oct 12)

(new) Business Insider: Hey Jamie Dimon, protestors outside your house (Oct 11)

(new) Business Insider: Here's why Steve Jobs wore a black turtleneck, jeans every day (Oct 11)

(new) Business Insider: An incredible tour of China's richest village (Oct 11)

(new) Business Insider: Bill Gross: Occupy Wall St protesters fighting back after '30 years' (Oct 11)

Xinhua: Slovak parliament rejects EFSF expansion, govt collapses (Oct 11)

Washington Post: After 'no' vote, Slovakian politicians work for approval of bailout (Oct 11)

Washington Post: Slovakia rejects European bailout plan (Oct 11)

Washington Post: Asian stocks rise, led by Chinese lenders (Oct 11)

Reuters: CFTC has votes to pass position limits (Oct 11)

CNBC: Guest Jim Rogers (Oct 10)

Cushion, no springs (updated 1000 am HST)

2011-10-11T03:41:00.003-10:00

3:38 am (Hawaii) Out of FAZ at 56.40+. It was up to 57.10, but couldn't get any strength. Made a small profit (+1.60 or so) and it could run much higher from here. For now though, I'm out. Best not to fight the waves, and today looks like a choppy one with indecision from both sides. Nice to see that 54-55 bounced. Dow meandering at -30 to -50 so far.

Update 9:37 am Re-entered FAS at 12.00. Kept pushing and pushing, dam finally broke. I thought FAS and FAZ might end up flat and they still might. But with the Nas and S&P positive most of the past few hours, Dow finally broke into green, FAS to follow? Whipsaw action all day, glad I stayed out.

FAS went to 12.07, now at 11.95. I may have spoken too soon.

Update 9:53 am Out of FAS 11.91, took a very small loss. It was up and I should've put in a stop order at break-even (12.00). Too optimistic. I knew the profit taking would kick in. FAS now at 11.86. It's not a gainer today, but it was at 11.00 yesterday, and traders are taking what they can before the next move down. I'm now basically break-even for the day, a few bucks ahead for my effort.

Update 9:57 am Back in FAZ 54.94, almost exactly where I got in yesterday near the close. It looks like the market wants to pull back or steamroll higher, but I think it may just wander in this range for awhile. Whatever I think, though, is meaningless. If the bankster stocks collapse, this small FAZ position could be a longer hold, but it could fall through the ice and head down to 52, then 44, in minutes.

FAS vs FAZ (updated 150 pm HST)

2011-10-10T12:50:00.009-10:00

FAS daily: Ready to break into the 12s and 13s?

FAZ daily: Testing 55

This kind of decline has consistently been met

with buying since early August, but the market

is begging for a run higher.

12:41 pm (Hawaii) Really, could it be this simple? Is it just about banks, banksters and a "Why can't we all get along" attitude? The grit is real and the dirt is everywhere. Nobody in Germany in his or her right mind wants to bail out Greece. Again. But the US won't let that happen, and if we (the US) end up financing all the stupidity in their monetary systems — and why not, since we can't figure out a sturdy system of our own without cheating The People — the winner from here is FAS.

I missed most of FAS's 14% gain today to 11.90, catching a ride from 11.09 to 11.33 before hitting the sack at 4 am. FAZ has retreated despite the duress in Europe. Any hint of a semblance of a plan there puts fuel in the bankster stocks and buries FAZ. At sub-55, is it time to re-enter FAZ? Is Europe's drawn-in-the-dirt play really going to work? Will the Germans go along with the Americans and keep the pyramid ponzi scheme continue? The answers are probably yes.

They will print Euros, etc. That will make FAS, AGQ, DGP, AAPL rage higher, maybe through the roof. But if the turbulence isn't over, FAZ can't be discounted. Literally.

Update 1:50 pm Back in FAZ at 54.84, small position.

Emptying out, frugal shopping time (updated 1100 am HST)

2011-10-10T02:56:00.005-10:00

2:51 am (Hawaii) Out of FAZ for another loss. These small losses are adding up and I hate the bleeding. I am looking for a move in FAS today on top of the over-weekend gain; Dow futures are up 140. AAPL (+2.5%), AGQ (+7%), DGP (+3.5%) are among the big movers. Staying out today and this week is a real possibility, but it might be better to be a pilot fish.

Update 3:32 am Trend is higher, bad news appears to be priced in for now. Got back in FAS before the opening bell at 11.09. Everything turns quickly, exercising caution.

Update 3:42 am Out of FAS 11.33. It was either put a stop sell order in at 11.30 and go to the toilet, or sell and crap in peace. Honestly. I like peace. Might get back in later, but FAS was due for a decline after hitting 11.40 a couple of minutes ago (stochastics). Made $240 on the quick trade, still down a little for the day because of the over-the-weekend trade on FAZ.

Update 3:57 am FAZ at 58.30 after dipping below 58.00. FAS got down to 11.24, then pushed back up to 11.40 again. Now selling down to 11.30. I'd like to see FAZ at 55 or 50, as usual, but I've got no idea how far it sells off today. It could get down to 55, then rally back to 63 before the closing bell. That would not be really surprising.

Update 10:54 am Boy I was tired. I slept from 4 am to 8 am, went to do some work and just got home. In between, I saw the market up HUGE and FAS at 11.90+ (I think). This was before the closing bell. I don't like trying to put a quick trade on if I can't be situated, so I stayed back. The Dow finished +330 (+2.97%). Nas up bigger +86 (+3.5%) and S&P 500 +39 (+3.4%). But as I check charts, I see FAS had its lowest 1-day volume since Sept 30. SPY had its lowest volume since Sept 20. AAPL (+5.4% to 389+) had its lowest volume since Sept 28.

There's only two ways I look at a big up day on such paltry volume:

1. This could be nothing but cheap calories, nothing nutritional and substantive. It's thin ice and the market will crater tomorrow, or

2. This is the beginning of another melt up rip, similar to last year when the indices kept trickling higher on no good news, just govt mandated machinery doing their trickeration and pushing stocks to new highs.

I'm not for or against making money under these circumstances. So yes, I wish I'd let my FAS position this morning run (with a trailing stop order in place). But FAS up 14.3% because Europe says it has a plan to save the banks? Details? WHAT DETAILS? Who needs them, right?

My main concern is staying out of harm's way. I'm all cash. I have no desire to fight the trend. Right now it's up no matter how much I despise the banksters. Much as I've liked trading AGQ and DGP in the past, +6.8% and +5.1% pale compared to FAS's move today.

As for FAZ, it's near its low of the day at 54.85. The 55 mark has been breached. The lower trendline on my megaphone pattern has been hit. Do I buy? Possibly. But 50 would be even better.

Weekend cinema & library (updated 1000 am Sun HST)

2011-10-08T01:01:00.018-10:00

Caroline Springs Library

Blogs

(new) Zero Hedge: Dexia's funeral will be announced Sunday as 'weakest link' (Oct 9)

(new) Zero Hedge: Did foreigners bail out US stock market? (Oct 8)

(new) Zero Hedge: Dutch Central bank answers 10 questions about gold (Oct 8)

(new) Turd Ferguson: Getting worn out (Oct 8)

(new) Zero Hedge: Chart of the week - European 'fear and loathing' hits record $1.3 trillion (Oct 8)

(new) Zero Hedge: Fund blamed for gold selloff (Oct 8)

(new) Zero Hedge: Financials finish weak (Oct 7)

(new) Golden Truth: My take on today's jobs report (Oct 7)
Le Fly: Crazy, crazy tape (Oct 7)

SGS: SRSRocco's report: Silver update (Oct 7)

Le Fly: It's gonna be a VXX Halloween (Oct 7)

Vlogs

(new) Alexiscom1: Occupy the Fed, dollar collapse (Oct 9)

(new) RT: Topless protest, fire at Euro 2012 stadium opening ceremony (Oct 9)

(new) endlessmountain: Silver Log (Oct 9)

(new) VictoryIndependence: Civil unrest, economic chaos (Oct 9)

(new) ScrapGoldBusiness: Silver - 35 Franklin half dollars complete set (Oct 9)

(new) DEMCAD: SHTF fantasy warrior syndrome (Oct 9)

(new) Keiser Report: Price propaganda (Oct 8)

(new) Realist News: Web bot update - soon to be huge financial collapse (Oct 8)

(new) SGT Report: Occupy hearts and minds (Oct 8)
(new) Realist news: 11 facts you need to know about nation's biggest banks (Oct 8)
(new) endlessmountain: Rant - seriously? (Oct 8)

(new) Silveready1: NYPD on scooters (Oct 8)

(new) Realist News: Banks gambled with pensions and lost (Oct 7)
Keiser Report: Pitchforks and torches up in sales (Oct 7)

wafdawg: Race for physical gold, silver update (Oct 7)

wafdawg: Silver update, debt downgrades, gold confiscation (Oct 7)

stellaconcepts: Silver to $23.75? Sure hope so! (Oct 7)

bigdad06: Artificial crisis! (Oct 7)

Hit the Bid: Krull to Friday (Oct 7)

drutter: 2012 Silver Cougar finally available (Oct 7)

(new) Stratfor: Dexia Bank's collapse and European crisis (Oct 6)

streetmoney21: We need another rumor to keep stocks pumped up (Oct 6)

Audio

(new) Turd Ferguson: Guest Ned Naylor-Leyland (Oct 8)
Peter Schiff Radio (Oct 7)

Mainstream

(new) Reuters: Dexia board set to meet as break-up looms (Oct 8)

(new) Bloomberg: Slovak SaS Party won't back EFSF after compromise rejected (Oct 8)

(new) (video) CCTV: S&P cuts core Dexia banks by one notch (Oct 8)

(new) CCTV: Protestors gather in London (Oct 8)

BBC: Sarkozy to discuss EU debt crisis with IMF's Lagarde (Oct 8)

Business Insider: The most bullish 'housing' chart we've seen in 2011 (Oct 8)

Metal bling
ArgentPur1OZ: Thanksgiving PM (Oct 7)

(new) Buildingwithbullion: Weighing my 10 troy oz gold Suisse Pamp (Feb 16)

Eye candy

(new) Street Low: 1969 Impala with model Gina (Oct 7)

(new) Reef Entertainment: 2012 Miss Reef Calendar (Sept 27)

Preparation: Revenge of the Nerds (updated 145 pm)

2011-10-07T10:36:00.005-10:00

FAZ 1-minute: Whales in action

10:07 am (Hawaii) Clarity. Quite obvious now just from observation of the charts. When FAZ moves up incrementally on the 1-minute chart, retail is stepping in. But the long, long candles make it clear that hedge funds (my guess) are playing FAZ and playing peons like me.

• In premarket, hedgies sold off: a huge gap down from 59 to 58.20, then to 57.20 in 2 minutes.

• Retail bargain hunters stepped in at 56.50 and marched it forward and higher to 57.30 before the opening bell.

• Mix of retail and big buck hedgies as FAZ moved up to 59.80, cutting right through the noise at yesterday's closing price (58.35).

• After hitting 59.80, huge sell by the hedgies brings it back to 58.80 and lower. FAZ consolidates between 9:55 and 10:30 am (Eastern).

• Big move up by hedgies takes FAZ from 58.45 to 60, retail traders tagging along. A couple of hiccups for quick traders, then on to 60.80.

• More incremental buying, machines humming as FAZ goes to 61.20 by 11:20 am.

• FAZ consolidates again between 60.30 and 61. A pop to 61.80 looks strangely timed, followed by immediate selling. Hedgies unloading and getting their price.

• From 60.50 to 62.50, mass volume and price action by hedgies. A bit of consolidation from 12:30 to 12:40 pm.

• Hedgies step in again, the run ain't done. FAZ moves to 63.10, pit stop rest, then up to 63.80 with plenty of retail buying.

• Finally, a first major sell by the market, FAZ dropping to 62.40 almost in a direct downtrend line.

• FAZ makes a desperate rally to 64.15 as retail jumps in head first. I am among the lemmings.

• From 64.15, the selling is pronounced by hedgies, who are up huge for the day. FAZ goes right to 63.30 in 4 minutes, some retail buys in to push price back to 63.70, but hedgies are still unloading as FAZ goes down another flight of stairs to 62.70. I'm out by then. Sucker.

• FAZ tries to make another run to 64, but the tank is almost empty. A huge hedgie selloff takes price from 63.10 to 62.20 in a single minute. FAZ bounces back up to 63.20 and seems to be consolidating, but selling pressure is putting a lid on the pot.

• After somewhat consolidating from 2:00 to 3:00 pm, the hedgies have had enough and bail out. FAZ falls off the mini-cliff to 60.50 by 3:30 pm as the indices rally.

• The hedgies re-enter after that, buying FAZ up from 62.30, then a huge push so fabricated that even I smelled something horribly stink. FAZ goes to 64.02 by 3:59 pm, a nearly 6% gain in less than 30 minutes. It's all hedge fund action, huge candles and volume, hoping to stiff retail traders with one last chaser scenario.

I think, a small position going into next week would be nice, even at 64. But I think the price falls in afterhours trading, and this is a pure setup move by the hedgies, so I pass.

Afterhours, FAZ is at 63.39, up 9.8% today. When it sold off to 60.50, it was roughly 2.5% up. Just another day of FAZ movement. And I'm convinced more than ever that dealing with FAZ is about price discipline and being selective, not chasing momentum. Had I stuck with 55 and 60 as buy points — 55 is at the low end of my megaphone/pennant patterns chart — I would've missed a buy in premarket trading. But I would've gotten in at 60. Maybe a set buy order at certain price points would be far better for me, particularly when I'm asleep during the early hours.

There's no way to beat the hedgies. At best, peon traders (like me) can follow their moves like pilot fish to sharks. But ultimately, price points rule. A buy at 56+ premarket won no matter how much turbulence was in FAZ during the session. I noted yesterday that FAZ's last move down from 81 was all the way to 54+. 56+ is close enough, and I was looking for 55. But I wasn't set with a buy order at that level or 60, so the onus is on me to have my thesis, detail my process and execute with conviction. That would be superior to chasing at 63 or 64, wouldn't it?

Even the late day selloff to 60.50 should've rang bells for me as a possibly buy point. I might be best served with charts on paper (stationary observation) rather than live charts that can be highly seductive because of the chase element. In other words, it's time to get more nerdy about my charts and more so my actions. No nerd chases something that's at 64 after it was 56 that same day. He takes out his butterfly net and calmly brings in his catch at 56 and 60.

From here, 66-67 has been a mid-point of sorts with the next megaphone level as high as 81 (again). This could quickly fall to 55 though my hope for 50 or 42 is fading. The chances are higher now of a run back to 81 and then 100.

Update 1:36 pm I enjoy interpreting the price action via the daily chart. Too bad I haven't utilized the information much at all. At 63 and change afterhours, FAZ is well above its earlier low at 56+. In other words, the buying opportunity has passed unless someone knows more downgrades like the one today by Fitch (of Italy and Spain) are coming on Monday.

FAZ daily: megaphones only

FAZ daily: adds pennants

I noted yesterday that it was the first time since the FAZ explosion in August that price had declined with three consecutive long candles. It had to come to an end or it would become the beginning on an ugly drawdown, which I would've welcomed. I still have fantasies of buying FAZ at 50 or 44 or 42. But here at 63+, I feel compelled to open a small position, period. The vast evidence points to the necessity of a financial breakdown to bring Europe and, eventually, the US. Reaching a state of solvency cannot happen without wiping the balance sheets clean, and it cannot merely disappear into thin air, though we have been thoroughly convinced up to this time that it is done with regularity and efficiency.

Update 1:58 pm Small position FAZ 63.20.

More bounce to the ounce

2011-10-07T07:44:00.006-10:00

7:36 am (Hawaii) There goes the FAZbreak, pushing back up to 63.65. I just got up 15 minutes ago, re-entered at 63.30 even though FAZ is/was up more than 8% for the day. I really don't like chasing anything like I did in the past. And I liked FAZ at 60 or 55, but didn't buy at 60. This morning, it came down to 56.33 in premarket trading. But I was snoozing.

Looks like 56+ will turn out to be the recent low, which makes sense. My megaphone pattern on the chart had FAZ at 55 if it touched the bottom of its range. Then Fitch downgrades Italy and Spain, and FAZ bounces. The Dow has dropped 20 points since I turned on the computer, now -56. I've followed FAZ off and on for awhile, doing daily charts the past week or two and it's been interesting. Just when you think alien hybrid algo devil machines run everything, human psychology returns to the arena. In other words, when FAZ sells off or goes on a tear higher, it moves like nothing else. It's panic or party time. So I don't expect a drastic pullback yet, not like I would in other stocks or ETFs.

This was at 81 what ... two or three days ago? The move to 81 happened, but the other move — to 100 — is still coming. I still don't know if FAZ goes back to 50 or 42 first. For now, it's either keep tight stops and stay out of any possible avalanche selloff later in the day, or mobilize for a home run move. The difference today is that it's Friday, and that will play into the psyche.

FAZ 1-minute: up 9% so far today

Update 8:03 am Added more FAZ at 64.05, giving in to the urge to chase, and got spanked. Sold at 62.90. The run is probably done after three surges higher today. That's a lot for any stock, especially when it's up about 10% at the peak. Small loss. AGAIN. Giving the price action space to move used to be a good thing. Now, it's a failing tactic. Probably going back to selling at my entry point. FAZ went to 64.15 before sliding.

Dow is -8 and making a strong rally off its low. My timing couldn't have been worse. Only decent thing I did was get out. I was too overconfident in the momentum in this late stage of the move. Sometimes 10% up is the ceiling, sometimes it's not. This time, it was. Adding the shares above 64 didn't help. Here in the 62.90-63.00 range, I'd be down just a tiny bit from the 63.30 entry point. There's a part of my thinking that wants to stick to strict price targets like 60 and 55. Then there's the undisciplined part that chases intraday. It's time to get much much more technical.

Thursday cinema & library (updated 1000 pm HST)

2011-10-06T12:27:00.007-10:00

Federal Reserve

Blogs
Zero Hedge: BBC does it again (Oct 6)

Le Fly: Enter decadence (Oct 6)

Le Fly: This is madness (Oct 6)

Scott Bleier: Hope lives! (Oct 6)

Rajun Cajun: The Russell paints the picture (Oct 6)

madhedgefundtrader: Why I tripled my volatitlity index short (Oct 6)

Le Fly: Ignoring warnings (Oct 6)

Le Fly: Rally will continue until pain threshold is met (Oct 6)

Zero Hedge: France, Germany fail to reach agreement (Oct 6)

Turd Ferguson: Ready for more BLSBS? (Oct 6)

Golden Truth: Hugo Chavez issues wake-up call to paper gold shorts (Oct 6)

Golden Truth: No longer 'barbarous relic.' gold is 'high quality liquid asset' (Oct 6)

Mike Shedlock: How Bernanke 'f*d' banks and fixed income savers at same time (Oct 6)

Zero Hedge: Bank of England expands EQ by 75 billion pounds (Oct 6)

Turd Ferguson: Disconnect (Oct 5)

Vlogs

(new) bullorbearreport: Silver +10% in 2 days! Good buy point (Oct 6)

(new) BrotherJohnF: Silver Update - Buy the dips (Oct 6)

Reggie Middleton: BoomBustBlog Occupy Wall St documentary (Oct 6)

silverfuturist: Wall St 'Dr Evil' created by guaranteed rates of return (Oct 6)

endlessmountain: Rant - Using charts for buy/sell points (Oct 6)
endlessmountain: Silver Log (Oct 6)

Christopher Greene: Entire banking system imploding, European QE2 launched (Oct 6)

jackieochannel: Occupy Wall St media zombies (Oct 6)

Keiser Report: Debts and slavery (Oct 5)

Audio

Progressive Radio News Hour: Guest Gerald Celente (Oct 6)

Kerry Lutz: Guest Barry Stuppler (Oct 6)

Chris Martenson: Guest David Stockman (Oct 6)

Peter Schiff Radio (Oct 5)

Mainstream

(video) CNBC: The jobs report trade (Doug Kass) (Oct 6)

(video) CNN: Bank of America to make 13% more from debit fees (Oct 6)

Reuters: Venezuela says gold repatriation to start soon (Oct 6)

CNBC: Doug Kass: These stocks are stupid cheap (Oct 6)
CNBC: Labor report: Investors getting used to bad news? (Oct 6)
CNBC: Obama attacks banks, cites Wall St protests (Oct 6)
Euronews: One million banknotes seized in Poland (Oct 6)

Bloomberg: Germany, France split on EFSF bond purchases (Oct 6)

Telegraph: World facing worst financial crisis in hstory, Bank of England governor says (Oct 6)

(video) C-SPAN: Ron Paul: We have crossed rubicon towards empire, tyranny (Oct 5)

Eye candy

Street Low: Perscilla's photo shoot (Oct 6)

$FASter $FAZterrrr . . . stoppp!

2011-10-06T12:11:00.000-10:00

FAZ daily

Deeper discount price ahead?

11:53 am (Hawaii) As noted earlier, maybe FAS rises another day on this new uptrend, but after gaining 37% from Tuesday's bottom, it's less likely now than it was yesterday or this morning. On the other hand, FAZ has taken its usual beating after stretching to the limits of its range. This is 9 out of 9 times FAZ as dropped drastically — this time it's 28% off Tueday's intraday high of 81 — when a long white/green candle is followed by a long black/red candle. The first of these drops during the time frame of of August to the present took FAZ from 81 to 54, a 33% decline.

The next decline from 72 to 50 was 30%. The rest were large, each one of them. But 33% is the largest dropoff. If FAZ sells off to the lower trendline, that puts it at 55 — just 3 bucks and change away. The one observation that's unavoidable: Since August began, there hasn't been three consecutive days of long red/black candles until now. Is it time for a major bounce?

I wrote earlier today that the last two instances when FAS dipped below 10, it rallied to 15+ and 12+. FAS is at 11.43 in afterhours trading. The one difference in these FAS rallies is that the current one began with a opening price (Tuesday) below 9.00.