Dollar dollar bill y'all

The weekend is upon us after a strange week thanks to the 4th of July being on a Wednesday. AAPL roared higher, up to 614 yesterday, but is now at 603+ as the market pulls back. A lot of that is due to the LIBOR scandal, another bankster scam that has every stock on my Debt Spiral Dance list red. Deutsche Bank is under investigation, down 5.3% to 33.55 and near its low of the day. Soc Gen (SCGLY) is down 5.9%. It's going to be industry wide and FAZ is ripping higher for a second day in a row.

The US banksters aren't being hit as hard, but it's still a bloody mess: BAC -2.1%, C -2.4%, JPM -1.5%, MS -2.4%. The dollar (UUP) and euro ultra short (EUO) march higher, as does TVIX. Oddly, gold and silver are being bludgeoned along with financials. Most stocks are moving on miniscule volume today. Buyers have run from the market like it's a house on fire.

Taking precaution yesterday turned out to be good given that my sleeping hours overlap with the market. Holding AAPL from 95 or whatever would be different, but since I didn't do that, playing with AAPL at 600+ is turbulent to say the least. With the Dow (-161), Nasdaq (-49) and S&P (-16) down 1.2% to 1.9%, it's not the time to try and be a hero.

No messing with Uncle Sam (updated)

Dollar is powering higher this morning, taking most stocks lower. AAPL was somewhat of an exception, off its premarket high (602.98). The skittish mood was enough to bump me out at 601.50 for a small profit (+8.60 or so). AAPL could hold this morning's gain, but after running the past few sessions, it's due for a minor drop.

Economy is doing a little better with this morning's strong payroll number, strong meaning better than expected. That's part of the reason why the QE bulls are tentative for the time being. I'll be getting some sleep.

Update 9:40 am HST: AAPL ran hot in the face of head winds in the market. While the Dow (-34) and Nasdaq (-3) were ragged, AAPL rose to 614+ as I slept. Now at 611.75. In hindsight, holding my position with a stop-loss at 600 or 599 would have done well. But I did sleep well.

Apple Inc earnings are on July 16. Coupled with the news late last week about the 7-inch iPad, the stock is doing its usual pre-earnings explosion. AAPL defies the market; FAZ is up 2.7%. TVIX up 2.2%. UUP (US dollar) up 1.3%. EUO up 3.5%.

Apple crunch?

Weird mix of good and bad news for AAPL as the market was generally flat in a low-volume, pre-holiday, half-day session. I got back in AAPL yesterday afterhours at slightly below 593. Shares hit 600 today and closed above 599. I'm holding the position over the holiday.

Whatever weirdness came out on AAPL, this just came out several minutes ago: a 7-inch iPad will be (reportedly) released this year. Good news? I own no iPad, no iPhone, not even an iPod. But this sounds good for AAPL longs.

Business Insider (via Bloomberg): Apple will launch smaller, cheaper iPad this year (July 3)

Apple turnover

In AAPL on Friday at 583.95. Out today at 591.50.

Woke up a few minutes ago to find the market generally flat on lower volume. AAPL has lower volume, too, but was up above 593 in the first half of the session. I almost forgot about that position. That's how deep into summer mode I am. But I locked in a decent gain, not interested in re-entering. The only possibility would be a catalyst late in the day, and AAPL would see another jolt of volume as it did early in the session.

Thursday cinema & library

We're on the verge of some potentially titanic movements in the next few days. Sit tight and avoid the turbulence, or at least take a barf bag with you. Better yet, get on your bike and enjoy a fine summer evening.

Tyler Durden: Positioning for weekend: BofA's risk cheat sheet (June 15)
TraderFlorida (video): Thursday wrap (June 14)
streetmoney21 (video): Currency markets prepare for total chaos on Monday (June 14)
Le Fly: Come get it (June 14)

Charles Biderman: How to benefit from global financial mess (June 14)

Street Insider: Unusual mid-day movers (NBG) (June 14)
Barron's: Apple potential 'game changer' in mobile payments (June 13)
Reggie Middleton: As predicted last year, French and Greeks in race (June 13)

Titanic or Titillating Thursday

2:24 am (Hawaii) The Spanish 10-year is at 7%. How fricken outlandish is that? No nation can survive long with something like that. It's just ... implausible. No country was built to survive something like that. Yet there it is. Infuckingcredible.

But the world is not coming to an end. If there's one good thing about the internet, it's this: the masses share everything, good and bad ideas, at warp speed. So long as there is power, ideas and solutions spread at a rate we as a species have never seen before. So it's impossible to measure that component and believe with all certainty that we're up shit creek for good.

It just feels like it sometimes.

Here's what amuses and/or infotains this morning.

Business Insider: Initial unemployment claims MISS BIG (June 14)
Joe Weisenthal: I just got a ride to my hotel in Athens and BOY was it depressing (June 14)
Business Insider: Holy Crap: Spanish 10-year yield hit 7.0% (June 14)

No wind behind Spanish sails (updated)

7:41 am (Hawaii) The Spanish bailout had Dow futures +140 at one point last night. My guess was that AAPL would hit 590 today. So I got up a little while ago, turned on the TV to see the Dow down 30 points. Stunning. No +100 or +200 day?

AAPL nearly hit 590, hitting 588.50 intraday, but is now back at 581+, barely positive even though its annual developers conference has begun. (They've released new and improved MacAir.) The bailout lasted for the blink of an eye. FAZ, which gapped down nearly a dollar to 25.00 at the open, is now at 26.56. I'm still all cash and probably will leave this mess alone. But it's telling how any bailout is having almost no effect on the overall market.

Update 10:16 am Took a shot at FAZ at 26.92, ran to 27.04 and fell. Got out at 26.80 for a teeny loss. Got back in at 27.09. (Missed a buy at 26.93 on the way back up.) Sold at 27.34 before the closing bell. Net positive for the day, basically break even. Had I held from 26.92, would've been a small, but decent paper profit. The after-hours puppeteers have FAZ at 27.39.

Almost impossible to hold anything overnight unless you have a major cushion, like say AAPL since 95. But even AAPL took a couple of roundhouse blasts to the face, falling to 571+ before the bell after being up nicely early in the day. Dow -142 (-1.1%), Nas -48 (-1.7%), S&P -16 (-1.3%). Surely another bailout coming this week, likely for Italy, which means another gap higher for the indices. I'd rather wait for the pop and fade that. Or just watch from the top row with my binoculars.

Weekend cinema & library

CNET: Apple teases WWDC 2012 with iOS6 banner (June 8)
AP: Central Asia bloc gives Afghans observer status (June 7)

Status quo

On the road again and it's nice to be out of the traffic mess and snarl, the craziness of people in tight quarters. No, out here it's quiet, less traffic and even with a job to do, I can relax almost instantly. Catching up with today's price action. China cut interest rate, but Bernanke was predictably stoic after a huge two-day run-up in the market. Don't forget the bullish comments coming out of Fed bankers recently, and Bernanke had to stay quiet, ie douse the flames with a sprinkling of cold water.

Would've been profitable to short financials after the open today via FAZ, but I was asleep at 3:30 am and later was on the road. It's looking more and more like a dead-cat bounce, though this one is completely attached by umbilical cord to monetary easing (or not) and Eurozone politics. That's what makes it difficult to hold FAZ overnight. Had I tried this yesterday, I would've started today's session down an full buck. Not worth the risk.

Looks like a lot of jibber-jabber on the way from people like Fed bankers, and that'll make for a lot of useless running in place between now and those key Eurozone elections in about 10 days. Just enough time to really take a deep breath and enjoy the view.

Wednesday cinema & library (updated)

Abigail Doolittle: Runaway day likely to fail (June 6)
Keiser Report: Paper money collapse (June 5)
David Fry: Big Wednesday short squeeze (June 7)
The Guardian: Spain calls for new tax pact to save euro (June 6)
Wall Street Journal: Lockhart says Fed must stand ready to provide more support (June 6)

CNBC: Market's fate 'in Bernanke's hands' (June 6)

Le Fly: 'We are going the fuck higher' (June 6)

Reuters: Fed more upbeat on economy in Beige Book (June 6)

Turd Ferguson: 'DO NOT be surprised by a dip/profit-taking' in metals (June 6)

Financial Post: Gartman admits he made bad call on gold (June 6)

Barron's: Hedge funds have gotten extremely bearish (June 6)

Scott Bleier: Pressure valve day (June 6)
Forbes: JPMorgan's other messy problem: MF Global's missing money (June 4)

Jim Rogers: 'Please get worried' (June 4)

Idling and parking (updated)

8:26 am (Hawaii) Some long, fun days for me with summer here, which means I've slept through the past two sessions for the most part. Even though I knew futures were up more than 100 points last night. The Dow is +203 with about 90 minutes left. AAPL is hovering around 570, off its intraday high of 573.85. AGQ is up 5.1% to 43.86, one of the most obvious signs that sentiment is with the bulls, i.e. euro printing is about to crank into full madness.

DGP is barely green today, however. Also note that volume is a pittance, so this move could pop any moment. It's a three-legged chair. It's a lack of sellers more than an onslaught of buyers. Even social media are up: FB +0.9%, YELP +4.3%. Even GRPN +7.4%.

Finnies are rallying again. JPM is +2.6% and FAS is +6.66 percent (not making that up). VXX is down 4.8% and TVIX is -8.9%.

I have some work to do, in and out this morning (yes, it's still morning here in the middle of the Pacific), and I'm not convinced about this move higher. I may dip into DGP or even NUGT with a tight stop, but that's it. This arena is half empty, and if the balloon pops in Europe, the tankage will resume. My gut tells me they have to print, though. It's a conundrum.

Update 10:04 am In and out of FAS for a quick little profit. Got in at 77.70 a few minutes before the closing bell. Swung lower to about 77.45 before it closed strong. A few minutes after the bell, sold at 78.45. They'll puppeteer this thing back to 77.70 or so at some point today, I'm guessing.

Of course, now that I'm out, it will go to 80, then 85, then 90. They must print euros. Simple as that. So why am I not in gold and/or silver? Both have made big runs recently. I'll wait until things cool off a little more before walking into that. Because any whiff of bad news regarding the ECB, eurozone, Germany ... and FAS goes back to 68. And lower.

Monday night library & cinema

Reuters: Spain says market are closing to it as G7 confers (June 5)
Lucas Krupinski: Take a pass on leveraged ETFs (June 5)
Sam Ro: Barclays says a 1980-style market rally is on the table (June 5)
Nicole Foss: 2008 was practice run compared to what comes next (June 4)
Tyler Durden: China purchases record 100 tons of gold in April from Hong Kong (June 4)
Tyler Durden: Now, courtesy of Bridgewater... it's Italy's turn (June 4)
Kenneth Schortgen Jr: Market rumor - Pimco, JPMorgan halt vacations to prepare for economic crash (June 3)
Reggie Middleton: Dead bank deja vu? (June 1)
Dan Norcini: The futility of QE (June 1)

CNBC: Kaminsky accuses Morgan Stanley of painting the tape (June 4)

Weekend cinema & library (updated)

Bokor Mountain Church, Cambodia

Le Fly/iBankCoin: Germany's third World War (June 3)
Scott Bleier/iBankCoin: Growth at any cost? (June 3)
Business Insider: Soros reveals exact moment Merkel started Euro collapse (June 2)
Business Insider: Former hedge funder presents terrifying version of end game (June 2)
Bloomberg: Merkel rejects debt sharing (June 2)
Reuters: Funds pull out of commodities, most bearish since end-2011 (June 1)
Zero Hedge: 'The End Game' (June 1)
Zero Hedge: The deer is back (June 1)
Zero Hedge: Santelli and Kaminsky on broken rules, unpredictability, deleveraging (June 1)
Zero Hedge: Sorry folks, QE3 ain't coming, even the Fed doves admit it (June 1)

News trumps all

7:50 am (Hawaii) I've been disgusted with myself all week, which is no way to prepare for the market. Heck, in that mindset, it would've been best to leave home for awhile, get outside and get some clarity, which I did a few times. It's not the amount in trading losses that bothered me; it was relatively fractional. It was the whipsaw nature of price action and my inability — or unwillingness — to respect the lack of direction.

But I was all cash most of the week after the close, and that game plan was best. Though I wasn't long FAZ overnight, I wasn't long the market either and this -247 point move in the Dow comes on the back end of these negative PMI numbers across the world in the past 36 hours. It's tempting to go short (via FAZ or TVIX), but the risk here is that with all the bad news absorbed, and Obama done speaking (the indices dove again as he began), the market is done puking for the time being.

DJ -2%
Nasdaq -2.6%
S&P -2.3%

Overnight futures were at -110 before I hit the sack, so getting up to see this isn't a major shock. But gold is UP. DGP is +8.2%. AAPL is down 2.5% ($14) to 563. Even some of the stocks that had been resilient, like JACK, are down more than 4%.

The strange thing is, volume is SO LOW. In some cases, it is miniscule. So is this a true capitulation move even without volume? Maybe there are simply no sellers left and this really is the bottom. But I'm not willing to go long here. Not yet.

Update 8:13 am In FAZ at 29.75.

Update 8:20 am Out FAZ 29.62. It was up to 29.83 and topped out. Should've protected myself and stopped out (manual) for break-even. Tiny loss, but it's the principle. During that intraday top by FAZ, AAPL bottomed at 560.52. AAPL now 562.50, FAZ at 29.50. Anything with a gain over 10% like FAZ is due to sell off, no surprise.

Late night munchies (updated)

9:47 pm (Hawaii) Had another couple of very small losses today despite being up in one at an early point, and the fact that FAZ finished the day up off its lows didn't bring me any consolation. It finally fricking dawned on me: I've been trying to time breakouts (as was the case successfully last week) instead of simply, simply trading the ranges.

Yeah. It's that fricking simple. In hindsight, of course. We are now in the midst of all this PMI economic news across the globe, not that any of it changes the banking nightmare in the Western world. It's bad enough that one Mr. Fly, who has always insisted that the puppeteers will have no choice but to print en masse sooner or later, is cautioning against hero behavior in this wretched market.

Under a do nothing scenario, stocks will crash. Economies will grind to a halt and life as you know it will change. I am fairly certain, under a full retard scenario, the markets will close, possibly for months until shit gets figured out. They’d have to do this in order to avoid bank runs.
My advice to you: keep the majority of your net worth out of the market. It’s okay to play with stocks, since we all like to gamble. But it won’t be funny if your net worth gets halted for trading for 6 months, while you starve to death in your fucking Mcmansion. This advice applies to short sellers too. Your fantastic tailwinds will be kept away from your purse, if the markets go on holiday.

A bit more from Le Fly regarding the possibility of deflation:

This is as bad as it gets. The markets are tame because people believe QE3 or some bailout is around the corner. If we do not get either, bear with me as I prepare this next sentence: WE ARE GOING DOWN 5,000 DOW POINTS IN SHORT ORDER. 

Rumors that Greece cannot secure credit to buy oil, are running rampant, and have been forced to secure it from large European corporations, with onerous conditions. Spanish and Italian credit is in danger too, which is why oil is tanking so hard. See, boys and girls, that’s what deflation does. Credit is non-existant and money becomes scarce. Food, oil and basic materials will not be delivered.

Update 11:08 pm Business Insider reports that European markets and US futures are sinking because of the PMI data. An hour ago, futures were roughly -45. They're now at -81. But really, the more this teeters off center, the closer the market gets to a reprieve from the central banksters. Or not.

Josh Brown:

In 2008, with global markets in free-fall and the Beijing Olympics looming, the Chinese Ministry of Doing Whatever The Fuck It Wants pulled a stimulus package out of its ass so large that it represented almost 20% of the country's GDP. We're talking General Tso's Shock and Awe. 

And it did the trick - a little too well. Chinese real estate and infrastructure spending went banoodles, getting to the point where they were building ghost cities just to keep the machinery cranking and home prices greatly exceeded what anyone could actually afford to pay. The central government decided enough was enough and began to use policy to tamp down on the bubble. And things haven't been the same ever since.

This story in the NY Times is more than two years old, but already Spanish citizens were stuck between a rock and a hard place, unable to return to farm labor jobs. Like China, an unprecedented construction boom preceded the inevitable downturn in the economy.

Not a pretty place for the average joes of the world. Always getting screwed over, sure 'nuff.

Looking ahead (updated)

2:39 pm (Hawaii) Kinda regretting not holding any FAZ. Realizing that smaller positions, even smaller than what I've sometimes traded, will work best through the choppiness.

Business Insider: Nikkei tanks right away as industrial output comes in weak (May 30)

But @TraderFlorida has been spot on in regard to technical analysis, riding AAPL down until last week, and now he's bullish on it for the short term.

TraderFlorida (video): Nice bounce today (May 30)

I'm all cash for now. Who knew AAPL would jump $10 while the Dow would plunge 160?

From earlier today:


Business Insider: ECB sends out rejection of FT report that it blocked Spanish bank recap (May 30)
Business Insider: Here comes the busiest 48 hours in history of economics (May 30)
Telegraph: Spain faces 'total emergency' (May 30)

Update 8:53 pm 


AZ Daily Sun: Asia stocks fall as Italy, Spain bond costs rise (May 30)
Orange County Register: Robert Samuelson: Why is there no Greek bank run? (May 30)
Bloomberg: Spain's banking rescue should become example for Europe (May 30)

Wacked Wednesday? (updated)

3:46 am (Hawaii) Didn't like my trades yesterday. Liked the market whiplash even less. Aimless but I got myself stuck in that merciless washing machine. This time, the market shows direction (down) and I'm back in with FAZ (at 26.78) and TVIX (at 8.48). The TVIX position is quite small this time, meaning I can withstand a 2% or 3% drop. Stop losses, as always, are in place.

Why the drop in indices today (1% to 1.3%)? China says no stimulus, serious stimulus is coming. Is this really news? No. But volume is in this negative market today.

Update 3:56 am A wtf moment indeed. FAZ dipped to 26.69 and stopped me out. But TVIX went even more dippy down to 8.45 and stopped me out. It touched 8.45 for a few seconds and ran back up to 8.55. In other words, they played me and my stop loss orders. I'm at a net loss (very small) but it sucks that I was up (small) for the past 25 minutes or so and got suckered. Yeah. Note to self, no stop losses on TVIX from now on.

Update 11:08 am Woke up about 25 minutes ago to see the Dow closed -160. Indices were off by 1 to 1.4%. But the move in financials, FAZ, TVIX are major. My entire Debt Spiral list is red with big losses today. FAZ fell to 26.99, then ran into the close and is at 27.55 after hours. In other words, I would've had a winning trade if I'd stayed in. (I wouldn't have held all the way down below 27, but I could've started a new position in that area.)

TVIX, which I bought early today at 8.48, dipped to 8.32 by 2 pm Eastern time before running hard. TVIX was at 9.10 after hours and is now at 8.94. I traded in and out of FAZ and TVIX with zero success today. Time to change strategy. I had the right picks, but the wrong timing.

It's unpredictable even though so many bloggers and analysts claim it is not. Sure there's a bounce ahead, but when? Nobody really knows anything except that when it bounces, it will be big. Until then, the dollar keeps rising, the euro keeps dropping (below 1.24) and my timing needs to be better.

Oddly enough, AAPL ran to 579.99 before cutting back to 578.10 after hours, up 1% for the day. @TraderFlorida, as usual, is dead on about AAPL's bounce. His call was bullish if AAPL gets above 576 on big volume. Today's volume, 13.4M shares, is a bit more than Monday and Tuesday levels, but not close to last week's numbers (22M+).

AAPL up, Apple plays down

Bouncy indeedie (updated)

4:11 am (Hawaii) Volume plus a bounce on the bull side got me into FAS at 81.75. I was up a teeny bit when the consumer confidence report was released and I got stopped out flash crash style for a small loss. Within a couple of minutes, FAS rallied off 81.25 and head right up to 82. I re-entered at 82.25, put my stop loss order in and it has ranged around that price since.

AAPL had been up to 570 briefly, came down to 566+ and is now back at 570. If there is no bad news coming down the pike, this bounce could last a few sessions or more. Short squeezes galore.

Update 4:38 am Out of FAS at 82.15, teeny loss. JPM tanked horribly even as FAS stayed above 82. In the meantime, AAPL surged higher. So that ended the FAS trade. Whatever happened with JPM, I wasn't going to stick around waiting to see FAS drop like a rock, too. Got in AAPL at 573 with a stop loss in. AAPL is already up $10 (+1.8%) but if today turns out to be pivotal, even just for a short-term bounce, there's way more upside coming. If.

Update 1:59 pm In AAPL at 573, stopped out at 570.50. Wicked churning and I should've had the sense to stay the hell out. AAPL closed above 572, but dipped below 571 in the past hour or so after hours. Three trades today, three small losses, but psychologically not good. Need to protect confidence and capital.

Weekend cinema & library (updated)

10:37 am (Hawaii) Gold (and silver) got a nice gap up this morning thanks to the CME mafia's loosening (death) grip on margin requirements. Most of the market though was flat, meandering, aimless. The skeptic in me wants to be in FAZ since we have Memorial Day weekend ahead and that gives the Euro boneheads three entire days to keep screwing their system up. (Is it reasonable to expect such disparate cultures and nations to be unified? We would never enter a union with Canada, Mexico, Panama and Haiti, would we? Bad comparison, I know, but how can Germany not despise Greece at this point?)

So gold's leap higher appeals to the optimist in me. Maybe the puppeteers are ready to jolt this market to new highs like 2011. But craziness in the euro zone is going to happen, just a matter of when. So I remain neutral, all cash.

Bloomberg: Deutsche Bank's Fitschen said failed Greece lacks leaders (May 25)
Zerohedge: About that European stress test (2011) and where pain in Spain is raining next (May 25)
Zerohedge: Greece has proved that ECB bailout scheme based on lies, fraud (May 25)

Update Monday 8:14 pm The pessimists/realists/skeptics could be right 99% of the time. I could agree with them 99% of the time. But that 1% they're wrong could be precisely when the market bounces. Probably when more fiat starts rolling off the digital presses. Then what? What good will it do anyone to be short the market?

Still, it's good to hear both sides of the story.

Economic Collapse: 25 signs that smart money has written off Southern Europe (May 28)
Reggie Middleton (video): Breaking down muppetology (May 28)
Le Fly: One more great trade until September (May 28)

Sandstorms and saliva (updated 9:46 am)

1:25 am (Hawaii) Traded just once on Thursday (small loss in TVIX, a truly wicked bitch of an ETF), just busy running errands, getting things done. No choice. Had to be done. Trading in a thin market that does nothing but eat its own vomit? Yes, I can take a pass on that even if I'm not running around away from from home.

This morning, CME mafia is lower margin requirements. I haven't kept track much of precious metals for months, so if this is a first this year or last, this might be huge news. Remember when CME kept raising margin requirements awhile back? They did it four times in nine sessions and gold spot price cratered.

So, my conspiracy theorists out there, is this an engineered move to get the market rolling higher?

MarketWatch: CME Group cuts margins for gold futures (May 25)
NY Times: In Spain, bank transfers reflect broader fears (May 25)
CBS News: EU summit ends with lots of uncertainty, few plans (May 24)
Bloomberg: Monti says Germany can be persuaded on euro bonds (May 24)

Update 8:43 am Back in FAZ at 26.91. I bought (impulsively) on a spike from 26.72 to 26.93. Soon as I re-entered, it sold off back to 26.75 or so. My stop loss was in place had it gone lower. Now FAZ is back to 26.91. Volume that spiked in the past 30 minutes. Roughly an hour and a half ago, both FAZ and gold rose and held their gain. Banks selling off and gold rising? Unusual.

AAPL also made a run during that time, from 560 to 563, but gave back all of it and more in short time. AAPL fell to 559+ and is now above 561. Thin market, unpredictable, a lot of games being played.

Not planning to hold FAZ over this three-day weekend. There's always the possibility of some form of compromise out of the euro zone. There's also the possibility of ugliness as tension rises in Greece and Spain.

Update 9:46 am Out of FAZ at 26.93 (+0.02/share) for a break-even trade. It ran a bit to 27.13, but I just raised my stop loss instead of selling for a smallish profit. The market is indecisive as ever going into the close.