Rare earth Thursday

5:23 am (Hawaii) This week's bull run continues. DJ up 142 points (+1.1%) to 12,404. Nas up 30 points (+1.1%) to 2,771. S&P up 12.25 points (+0.9%) to 1,319. Metals list is 47% green, 48% red, 5% neutral. Rare earths are tearing higher. MCP (+6.6) is up $3.76 to 60.78. It was at 52 last week, dipping on news of major insider sales. REE is up 6.1% to 11.14. AVL is higher by 5.8% to 6.89.

The rest of the metals are up fractionally, none more than 1.5% with a few exceptions like CU, COPX, SVM, XME.

XG (+1.3%) and GDXJ (+1.2%) have decent gains so far. It smells like the run is petering out.

My Regular watch list is 68% green, 32% red. Ford (+3.5%), TSO (+3.2%) and RLOC (+2.7%) are among the leaders. Is this the end of the end-of-month window dressing? Tomorrow is July 1, so we'll find out soon enough. Today's supposed to mark the end of QE2, but all signs point to almost no fear of a prolonged hiatus until QE3. It appears improbable, even impossible, for the Fed to rule out the option of printing more dollars. There is no tangible alternative on the table, nor the political will to truly explore a cure for the ailing system.

Is the American public willing to take the medicine necessary? Are the powers that be willing to go down so we can transition to a new system? Of course not, not when it means losing billions of dollars. But the lie can't last forever.

Update 5:43 am (Hawaii) Financials are up across the board. SCGLY (+3.1%), NBG (+2.9%), BBVA (+2.7%), STD (+2.4%), DB (+1.6%) showing strength across the Eurozone. JPM, C, GS up fractionally. BAC down 1.2% on bad news yesterday. IRE down 1.8%. Finnies basically leading the run this week.

Raquel Welch

Is the coast clear yet?

Denise Milani

7:35 am (Hawaii) Apparently so. The Fed's minutes are generically status quo. I saw SLV explode from 44.20 (pre-minutes) to 44.85 or so with seven or eight minutes. During that time, when SLV pulled back, I kept thinking 44.24 as an entry point, which is precisely where it came back to. (Why 44.24? I did quick math in my head and a Fibonacci retrace of 38.2% of the gain between 44.20 and 44.85 was roughly 44.24.) But I didn't pull the trigger. And of course, SLV ran back up and continued to 44.85. I eventually entered at 44.75 and sat through a dip below 44.50. SLV now at 44.90 (HOD 44.99).

Yup, Spot Silver is benefiting and GLD is up, too (+1.1% to 147.96).

Bernankepalooza has made happy traders of bulls, not so much of bears. The market's response has been lukewarm. 54% of my watch list is green, but of the winners, they're big winners. RLOC (+31.3% to 23.63), EXK (+6% to 11.31), AMZN (+5.9% to 193.29), SLW (+4.2% to 40.83), CLNE (+4% to 17.07), PSLV (+4% to 20.97), ACQ (+3.7% to 330.22).

Yep, the miners are finally coming home to roost. PAAS and PHYS are also up. AAPL is still down for the day, while X (-4.3%), AMRN (-3.4%), WNR (-2.7%) and RIG (-2.6%) are plodding.

It would be a shock to the market if Big Ben said anything beyond what the minutes offered. Nothing is guaranteed. It's a 90% lock he'll be neutral and stick to the minutes script. That 10% is, of course, spooky for newly minted bulls.

Silver train

Update 9:29 am (Hawaii) As expected, Bernankepalooza went without a hitch. Big Ben assured planet earth that there's no real inflation, all systems are status quo/go and the market responded as such. Spot Silver and silver plays fluctuated during the 40-minute speech, but with the coast very clear now, it is trading at 47.72. SLV has been racing higher, giving back, racing higher, giving back and is now at 46.78, right about its HOD. YES, SLV is trading higher than the -2.5% conversion to Spot, but I'm not complaining.

The only thing that remains close to a 90% guess is that BM/JPM will not issue a bear raid for now. As in the next hour. After that, who knows...

Update 10:06 am (Hawaii) Still 32% cash in my little roll. SLV hit a high of 47.15, currently 46.91 after hours. Might deploy some cash into AGQ (ultra silver ETF) and/or SLW. If there ever was a green light for Spot Silver, now would be the time. I'm 99% positive Asia will push Spot (currently 48.04) higher. What happens after Asia closes and New York opens at 7:30 am Eastern, that's another scenario.

SLV just dropped from 46.85-46.90 to 46.65. Never a dull moment.

Silver with attitude

Update 2:56 pm (Hawaii) Not feeling incredibly confident at this point, but I made the decision and there's nothing that can be done. I'm sticking with my position in SLV overnight, which means 1) Hong Kong could buy it up like crazy, and so far Spot Silver is up to 48.40 in the first 30 minutes or so of trading there, and 2) New York could take Spot tomorrow morning and mutilate it. Odds are in favor of a rise overseas, but I'm not comfortable. I could've sold afterhours for a tidy profit; at SLV's high of 47.56, I could've banked roughly 2.80 in profit. Instead, it's time to let a winner run. In fact, I almost opened a second position in AGQ, which went from 358 during the doldrums of afterhours trading to 370. A small position would've been a nice trade. But I stayed put. 

Busy afternoon and evening ahead, so I won't be able to watch Spot run. Just as well. Nothing I can do about it until 2 am Hawaii time. My leanings and beliefs are only stronger because of the wealth of knowledge out there regarding Spot Silver, SLV (always iffy), the Fed, Spot Gold, etc. This trader is in need of some stress relief, like exercise. A long walk. 

Hong Kong

Turnaround Thursday

10:03 am (Hawaii). Got up an hour ago and the market has bounced back moderately. Manufacturing numbers out of Philadelphia, CNBC says, were the catalyst.

AAPL still hovering at 358, but metals continue to rock. SLV (+3.5%) and EXK (2.3%) are up big thanks to chaos in the Middle East (Day of Rage). SLV up almost in a straight line since January 26.

VXX (+1.4%) still up. Won't be touching that due to overnight contango effect.

LVS is up again (1.2%), now 48.82. I remember it trading to the low 46s after its earnings report two weeks ago. AMZN, VZ, CMG all up.

AAPL was actually at the bottom red end of my watch list early in the session, but has been replaced by RLOC and GMCR (-4.5%).

I've come to accept that the protests and rioting of the Middle East have become a combined catalyst that will not cease for weeks, if not months. That makes oil, gold and silver prominent, almost on par with a former "safe haven" like AAPL. Not interested in chasing SLV here, but I'll stay tuned for the next news event. Will there be another Day of Rage? Of course. People there are pissed.

EXK has traded in a range of roughly 5.50 to 7.50 for since November. At 7.20, it may be ready to break out. I wrote last year that speculators and traders had pointed out silver as an unappreciated vehicle, that there was massive hoarding going on. Whether that's true or ever was, the extremes of the past few months in the price are a great opportunity. EXK has a  float of 68.6 million shares and miniscule debt ($337K). The numbers are positive up and down, but this is a tiny company ($82.3 million revenue). At 5.50, a great buy in this environment. At 7 plus, watch out. Is it worth the risk? Will the rubber band yank it back when it touches 7.50?

SLV is also almost too hot to touch by most indicators. Traded between 26 and 30.50 since November and today is at a threshold (31) on increased volume. Tempting. I've always liked physical silver — looking at it more than owning it — so the appreciation of the metal is something to handle. As a piece of paper, it will always be a risk. Any government can seize paper assets of metals. It's happened before (long ago). But right now, SLV and EXK are alluring.

AAPL might be a great buy here at 357, but even without any Steve Jobs health issue, it always has pullbacks after earnings. I'm not willing to park into a position and wait for a catalyst. I'm willing to wait for a great price. But clearly, this is not just about Steve Jobs or app subscriptions. It's also about our personal issues with diseases like cancer. If we're comfortable enough with how the disease is treated, how it has affected our families and how we've dealt with it, the media circus around Mr. Jobs matters less. But there are still many traders and investors with panic buttons when it comes to anything negative or perceived as negative about the CEO. 

One nice healthy photo of Mr. Jobs and Mr. Obama tonight could set shares on fire again. 

NFLX, LULU and other momo movers are fun if you can take the heat. I prefer something cooler with a P/E I can trust. Doesn't mean I won't touch momos. But I know my preference and I'll work with it.

Purely momentus

3:25 am (Hawaii). Is the pit stop already over? In lieu of a real pullback of 5 or 10%, the market is awash in green numbers on my iMac screen. It's stunning, confounding ... I'm all cash and happy to be there, but sans bad news, the market is possibly ready to take flight once again without me.

AAPL is set to gap higher if it holds here at 361.44. A 50% retrace from today's premarket high to 360.74 or so, would've been a nice entry point for a short-term trade, but it wouldn't even come back to 361 even. I may be a whore for this stock, but there's a limit to how much I'll chase. Must maintain a shred of dignity and discipline. Or not.

A gap here could be a runaway freight train, a cliche that invites an image of a perilous crash. Whatever. I just think that above 360 AAPL could run several more dollars higher. Pull back. Run again. Pull back. It's a fund manager's must-have. Who can blame any of them? The world's reigning filthy-rich megastock with a ridiculously low P/E, 75% growth YOY and $59 billion under the matress.

Yesterday, AAPL touched 361 in premarket and never got close after the opening bell. But with 3/4ths of my watch list green, is it reasonable to assume that all of these stocks are being played by the specialists? Don't think so.

What else is green in premarket? VCLK (+12.9%), POT, LVS, NFLX, EGPT, on and on and on. More like, what's not green? That would be HAIN (big run lately), TBT, OPEN, QID, ARMH, VXX, RLOC.

Update, 4:33 am (Hawaii). Missed the 50% retrace of AAPL. Came all the way down to 360.50 or so but I was cautious about such a steep drop after the opening bell. Then it moved back to 361.50-plus within a minute. Volume is definitely there. This may be liftoff, after all.

Update, 5:20 am (Hawaii). AAPL to the moon, now 362.68. Major buying pressure the past 10 minutes, from 361.20 almost nonstop higher. The move came along with positive divergence in MACD. Missed my chance at the opening bell on the 50%-plus retrace from yesterday's close. Oh well ...

Next retrace (50%) entry is 361.35. Not expecting a pullback to that level, but I won't chase.

Update, 5:26 am (Hawaii). 50% retrace would be 361.45 now. HOD is 363.00. Likely was a short squeeze. AAPL longs having a party.

Update, 8:36 am (Hawaii). Somewhere, the angel in charge of stock moves is shaking his head and giggling at me. Really. As I drifted into slumber — hey, it was early morning and even two Red Bulls overnight couldn't keep me up longer — Newton's Law took effect. AAPL came back down to earth after touching 364.90. In fact, AAPL retraced even mote than 50% (of the day's gain) and bottomed at 361.42. (Retrace was nearly 70%.)

Maybe I should've put in a limit buy order, but falling asleep wasn't in my plan and I don't care for hard orders of any kind. Anyway, after hitting that level, AAPL ramped up and rose to 363.44, a gain of $2. In the past hour or so, shares have meandered around 363 and change.

So, I've been in cash all day, amazed by the spike in AAPL, not a penny made. Not a penny lost either. The market remains in the green, but gains are not as broad as they were earlier.

Update, 9:21 am (Hawaii). The two major drops in AAPL (and to an extent, the general market) were at 11:21 am (Eastern) and 12:01 pm (Eastern). There aren't many steady declines in the stock nowadays. It's gradual, no-selling pressure climbs that peak and get sold off violently. Whether they're activated by robots or retail stop-loss orders is not the issue. AAPL is top-heavy, a big dude who can bench press 700 pounds who also has pencil legs and tips over at the slightest breeze of 1-2 mph.

Shares are still up more than 3 bucks for the day (almost 1%). Without a catalyst, the guess here is that late-arriving funds have established their positions since Monday. There's no edge to buying here at 363 as a retail trader unless a final-hour buying spree kicks in. I'll be much more willing if shares get below 362 again.

9:55 am (Hawaii). So, Disney and Apple drawing new lines in the sand today. Disney tells Netflix and Coinstar wholesale rates are going up for its films. Apple making that 30% cut the anchor rate of sorts across its app store. Anyone still think Steve Jobs really isn't working behind the scenes at both companies? His prints are all over this. Good for profit margins at DIS and AAPL.

11:01 am (Hawaii). Opened a position in AAPL before the closing bell. Today's volume (16+ million shares) and the short-term base at 363+ provided an opportunity off the HOD (364.90). Not a perfect entry point (sub 362 was ideal) and shares could trade down to 360 (options expiry in two days). Rumor on Boy Genius Report about Verizon and Apple disappointed with iPhone 4 sales.

12:52 pm (Hawaii). Out of AAPL with a small loss (-2.83/sh). I saw shares dip excessively from 363 to 362 in a flash, then head lower and lower. Finally saw links on Twitter about Steve Jobs being spotted leaving Stanford Cancer Center. Instead of waiting around, I just stepped out of the trade and took the small loss. (Half of 1 percent of bankroll.) Figures that no matter how cautious I am, trying not to hold overnight most of the time, the slightest bit of negative news can send AAPL off a cliff. Soft landing, at least this time. Shares bounced off sub 360 and are now at 361+. Back to 100% cash. Best wishes to Mr. Jobs.

9:59 pm (Hawaii). Free time once again. Nice to see that Steve Jobs is meeting with a bunch of techies and a certain individual named Barack Obama tomorrow night for dinner. Looking back, I don't regret erring on the side of caution and getting out of my AAPL trade. That was no mistake. My concern about the public's perception of Jobs going to the doctor was the only factor, and I was right to get out in case AAPL went off the rails (far lower than 360+.

My position did not give me an edge of any kind. Longs who got in at 50 or 100 easily brushed the Enquirer and Daily News stories off like nothing. But those of us who are trading AAPL now are probably much more sensitive to unexpected news and price movement because our position is far more vulnerable. Therein lies the rub. I chased AAPL afterhours, and in the end, I paid the price. It was an odd set of circumstances, but the crux of it all is it was my own fault. The trade itself didn't cost me much, but the execution and price point were mediocre. There's much to learn from today's trade gone bad. It's not about the dollars. It's about discipline. I'm still learning.

The lack of discipline goes back to the opening bell, when AAPL sold off after gapping up. I had my entry point in mind, but did not follow through. Soon enough, AAPL ran from 361 to almost 365.

Two examples of a lack of discipline. To trade AAPL requires a modicum of faith sprinkled on solid discipine. I need both, really.

Icarus, Icarus

Lament for Icarus

Work to be done so I'm off the laptop and iMac for some time. I'll be thinking about Apple and its wondrous dent in the universe, how hedgies unloaded millions of shares* and sparked a free-fall fire on Thursday. I'll be thinking about how quickly AAPL recovered during that afternoon.

I'll be thinking about Egypt and it's major step forward today with the official resignation of Mubarak, how I felt tempted to buy Egypt ETF (EGPT) but opted not to due to my nearly-complete ignorance of the economy there and the seeming lack of technological future. No tech, no future, simple as that.

I will come back here and post bits of info about some of the insanely high flyers (so far) of 2011: Netflix (NFLX), Open Table (OPEN), Lululemon Athletica (LULU), Reach Local (RLOC), Baidu (BIDU) and Apple, of course.

If and when the market corrects — nothing can hold its breath forever, not even a happy bull free-diving in the South Pacific — which of these high flyers will fall the most? Which will follow Icarus to the ground after soaring with a set of wings of wax?

As I stalk my shares of AAPL ...

The rest of the market is soaring much higher. Not to be greedy, of course, with a $3+ move since yesterday AH. But I look at my growing watch list and DIS is at the top with a 4.2% gain. Mickey Mouse hasn't been atop a space mountain this high since May, 2000. That's some ride down and back up!

Imagine a Disney longtimer who saw his stock options sag monumentously TWICE in the past 11 years. Getting back to even never felt so good.

Other big gainers today: HAIN (Cramer with a big pump yesterday), AMZN +3.7%, SLV +3.1%, NGD +2.9%, EXK +2.7%, LULU +2.7%, RLOC +1.9%, VCLK +1.8%, TBT +1.8% (go figure), FAS +1.3%), OPEN +1.2%, IBM +1.1%, GLD +1.1%.

AAPL trading afterhours at 354.92 after brief spurt to 355.69. BIDU, F, VZ, GOOG, MOS fractionally higher.

In the red: NFLX -0.1%, POT -1.5%.

As for AAPL, I'm 30% tempted to sell for a nice little profit. I'm 20% cautious about another pre-catalyst bad-news lightning bolt (re: MLK Day/Steve Jobs health issue). If Apple has an overnight bad-news announcement, I won't be shocked. Fortunately, the 50% in me that says, "Let the winner run" is prevailing.

2-day

 2-month

10-year: extreme slope up tempts shorts, but 76% growth is monstrous