Bank run starting on BOA (aka DOA)? (updated 730 am HST)

2:38 am (Hawaii) Up through the night, got some work to get done, some fun stuff to get done and a can of Red Bull is in my system. Might need more... got the Orville Redenbacher popcorn and some mochi crunch and fukikake. This movie is a daily marathon and it's just starting for the day. Interesting to see both SPY and FAZ both up for a good 25 minutes or so after premarket opened (peon trading time, not the pre-premarket). But now FAZ is up and SPY is down. Dow futures were up, but on balance not pointing to a positive open.

Hard to read whether the late-day bounce yesterday is going to hold. But FAZ has already pushed above 68, sold off to 67.65 or so, and is back to 68.00 again. I'm leery of head fakes here. A lot of red on my Modified Trade X list: AAPL, AGQ, DZZ, ERY, FAS, QQQ, TLT, TVIX, UUP. The green: DGP, FAZ, FXP, TMV, TZA, YANG, ZSL. My focus, as usual, is FAZ.

YANG and FXP I learned about last night. They're 3x and 2x bear play ETFs on China.

Update 4:33 am Just doing some stuff, watching but not participating. Dow has bounced over and under break-even several times. FAZ was somewhat tradable from 66+ to 69+, back down to 66+ and now around 68.00. Market is basically flat with some fluctuation. Will 66+ hold again? If not, I might get those FAZ shares I covet at 65 or 60 or even 55.

FAZ intraday: little boxes getting work early in the day

I mentioned yesterday that the daily chart showed one trend over the past few months: long white/green candlesticks that are followed by long/longer black/red candlesticks have led to a temporary downtrend in the last eight instances. Doesn't guarantee anything here, but that fact does temper any enthusiasm I may have to jump in at this level without any catalyst on the horizon.

Update 4:47 am A fairly typical pennant forming on the early-session intraday chart for FAZ. I'm guessing this is common with opening-hour traders cooling off. The pennant normally leads to a break up or down, and in this case, FAZ just spurted higher, above 68.00 (not on chart).

FAZ 1-minute: Might just hit the sack.

No rhyme or reason to today's price action.

Update 6:05 am It's mid-day in the market and FAZ continues to stay in this pocket between 67 and 68+. Currently 68.39 (+2.6%) even though the indices are slightly up. My Debt Spiral list of banksters is 35% green, 59% red. The Euro banks are green and US banks are red, though none are down more than 3%, which is a pittance these days. 

PMs are also pushing up as of the last few minutes. AGQ is at 107 (+1.3%) and DGP is at 52.91 (+1.3%), and it still feels oddly interesting that PMs and FAZ are up together, like a nearly-forgotten memory. 

I drew up some megaphone patterns on the FAZ intraday chart for entertainment purposes, but the price seems to be holding in these areas. Stepping toward 69 since I took this pic of the intraday. 

FAZ 1-minute: Is 67.00 long gone already? 

Update 6:24 am Fascinating price action by FAZ as the Dow sold off from +36 to +13. FAZ left the lower megaphone to the next level and pierced yet another area before returning to a 69.15-69.30 point. It looks comfortable here. I could've entered at 67, 68, even 69. 

FAZ 1-minute: Holding in the megaphone patterns is extremely bullish

but highly susceptible to an avalanche

Update 6:42 am The entertainment value is immense watching FAZ. I didn't expect it to shoot up higher and higher on the megaphone patterns in such a short time, but this is FAZ and it's a spaz. It's pulled back down to 70.00 since I took this last photo (below) as the Dow tiptoes above and below break-even. Quite a run in the past hour plus. I'd be fine holding this had I entered at 67 and 68. Right now, it's a dodgy proposition. A small entry position would suffice in case the market buckles and FAZ returns to 79 or 81. Tight stops absolutely recommended.

FAZ 1-minute: Getting to these higher megaphones surprised me,

but it could actually get above the highest before today is over. 

And then return to yesterday's closing price. 

Of course!

7:07 am Down goes FAZ! That was quick, as usual. Stairway up, elevator down, as usual. FAZ broke through the megaphone patters up and then down, and then some. Got down to 68.10 or so, looking similar to the avalanche from yesterday's final hour. Dow is +38, AGQ is up 3.7% to 109+. DGP is up 3.2% to 53.92. FAZ is still up 2.5% for the day at 68.32. The run for today may be done. Not touching anything yet, though AAPL (374+) is well off its low of the day (360+). 

FAZ 1-minute: A rerun of the final hour yesterday. So now what? 

Update 7:25 am I wanted 65, I might get it. But I also want 60, 55...

Easy come, easy go

Little high, little low

Morning lows

Who wins this morning: bears or bulls? I'm not sure. Having Kim Jong Il as a wild card in the market picture is unsettling, to say the least. The guy just doesn't give a shit. At least with Eurozone and the Gulf mess, there's accountability and real pressure.

That being said, here are the premarket lows so far for some stocks.

• AAPL 241.55 now, 238.96 low

• BIDU 68.10 now, 67.99 low

• C 3.64 now, 3.60 low

• DNDN 41.63 now, 41.25 low

• F 10.64 now, 10.45 low (yeah, holee crap!)

• FXE (Euro ETF) 121.95 now, 121.78 low

• EUO (short Euro) 25.05 now, 24.78 low

• FAS 20.99 now, 20.21 low

• FAZ 17.48 now, 16.99 low

• FXI 36.80 now, 36.51 low

• FXP (short FXI) 48.44 now, 47.79 low

• GLD 116.84 now, 116.12 low

• GOOG 470.00 now, 466.84 low

• GS 134.69 now, 134.00 low

• IRE 4.48 now, 4.26 low

• NBG 2.48 now, 2.43 low

• VXX 35.68 now, 34.75 low, 36.70 high

Sometimes, premarket patterns are a microcosm of the regular session. This might be one of those days because I don't see any good news coming that would spur buying by retail traders and investors. But if the fundies pile in like they did on Friday morning, just a few minutes after the opening bell, this could change quickly.

Danger lurks?

Colorful wiggly lines

Below, a look at some contrary plays. Sure, the bearish stuff has been working awesomely, but irrational exuberance isn't limited to the bulls when going long is The Way. Gold has slowed down even though a whole lotta people seem 100% bullish about it. (I think it's consolidating.)

For what it's worth, the candlestick reads are interesting: SPY was rated a sell (American Bulls) today, as if it has more room to bottom. FXE (euro) is close to a sell. AB is also listing AAPL and SLV as possible buys soon. Same with TMF. FAZ and VXX are listed as holds. Note that AB doesn't have much of a track record with FAZ and VXX. Just interesting to get another point of view.

FXE (Euro) vs.

TMF (30-year Treasury Bonds 3x), FXI (Xinhua-China 25), S&P 500

2 day (5-minute bars)

10 day (hourly)

SPY (S&P 500 Index) vs.

EUO (short Euro), FXP (short FXI), FAZ (short fin), VXX, GLD

1 day (1-minute bars)

2 day (5-minute bars)

5 day (hourly)

SPY (S&P 500 Index) vs.

TMF (30-year treasury bonds 3x), GLD (Gold), XOI (Oil & Gas)

2 day (1-minute bars)

10 day (hourly)

Torrid Tuesday

Dow Jones 10,510.95 -114.88 -1.08%

Nasdaq 2,317.26 -36.97 -1.57%

S&P 500 1,120 -16.14 -1.42%

Mixed bag today for the leaders, but a robust day for bears.

Germany's decision to end naked short trading stopped a slide in the euro, but by the close, the FXE dropped another buck to 121.77 and continues to trade lower after hours. Whatever the solutions are in Europe, there will be none overnight, apparently, and the dominoes continue to fall in slow motion. EUO closed up 2.75% to 25.24 and continues to trade higher in after hours.

• AAPL (252.36 -1.86 -0.73%) bottomed at 250.26 and ran back to 252-253 a few times before the close. It's held ground at 249-250 well the past two days, but I'm not re-entering until there's some sense of balance. Too many bears out there.

• BIDU (71.57 -1.61 -2.20%) and NFLX (102.01 -4.34 -4.08%) struggled, as did the financials. C (3.73 -0.13 -3.37%) and GS (137.36 -5.28 -3.70%), at least for this week, have been trading in tandem with Euro banks like IRE (6.88 -0.53 -7.15%) and NBG (2.50 (-0.15 -5.66%). The exception was STD, which was up 3-4% before closing at 10.40 (+0.04 0.39%).

• FAZ and VXX were solid plays today. FAZ gained 1.22 (8.86%) to 14.99. VXX gained 1.65 (6.00%) to 29.13. Both are trading higher after hours. I woke up at mid-day (early morning Hawaii time) and missed most of FAZ's run, but entered and caught a nice little profit before getting out. Then I re-entered right before the bell at 13.96 in anticipation of after-hours momentum. FAZ got up to 15.42 and is now at 15.38 AH.

The tide will turn eventually for financials, but it won't likely be very soon.

• Short-term plays like MGM and IRM were all right for traders who got shares before Monday's close. MGM moved on news that Paulson bought shares recently, hit a high of 14.12 before selling off and closing at 12.98 (-0.34 -2.55%). IRM moved on news that Buffett bought a stake recently and gained 0.31 (1.22%) to 25.67, off its high of 26.25.

Another short-termer, AKNS (1.02 +0.09 +9.68%) after announcing a partnership with Westinghouse. Hadn't heard that name in a long time. Westinghouse is actually owned by Toshiba now. AKNS ran to 1.23 right after the opening bell before selling off dramatically, right past Fibonacci levels (1.11, 108, 1.03). A lot of sourness in that stock. Not the kind of movement that we saw in HAUP a couple of sessions before.

• HAUP (3.07 +0.25 +8.87%) is hanging tough after being hammered by shorts on Monday. Shares got down to 2.72 before reversing field. Trading down at 2.92 in AH. With a float of 8 million shares, HAUP is a wild ride for longs and shorts. Watching Timothy Sykes and his short army go up against longs is quite the battle.

• Back to ETFs ... FXI kept dipping (38.43 -0.24 -0.63%) while FXP moved up again (45.01 +0.62 +1.40%).

• Inverse crude oil ETFs moved up, too. DTO (77.83 +1.14 +1.49%) and SCO 16.11 (+0.38 +2.42%) are skying high. I took a look at their charts last night and was blown away. But better to be cautious and wait for a pullback. Crude won't keep dropping forever every single day. Right?

• All the ETFs on my list that begin with 'S' were up: SDS, SKF and even SLV. GLD was also up, though just a bit. The last few sessions may have been consolidation more than anything for GLD. It refuses to jump ship.

• TMF is a sexy old prude, that's for sure. The 30-year treasuries (3x) gained a whopping 5.42% today to 38.29. Amazing. Nobody talks about it, too. With volume of just 178k shares, I can see why.

• US Steel (X) sold off huge again, losing 5.22% to 48.48. When China turns around, steel and copper will bounce big ... but Big Brother is powerful, and when he says slow down, the engine slows down in the Middle Kingdom.

Apple vs. Bears

Bears versus the Apple tree? Long term, I like Apple. For now, the bears are munching away.

AAPL vs. GLD, VXX, FAZ, FXP, EUO

1 day (1-minute bars)

2 day (5-minute bars)

SPY vs. The World

A look at SPY the past week. Are we headed lower? Who are "we"?

After the long run up, SPY has not fared so well lately, but a breather was due.

SPY (S&P 500) vs. GLD, VXX, FAZ, FXP, EUO

1 day (1-minute bars)

2 day (5-minute bars)

5 day (hourly)

Being slightly obsessed with FAZ and VXX (more as an observer than trader) makes these charts a little more interesting. So is comparing SPY with the FXP (UltraShort FTSE-Xinghua China 25) and EUO (short euro) vehicles. Vroom vroom!

China's great wall of worry

Jim Jubak's piece on China's dreamy maneuvering — last week's pullback put their market in bull-market territory — raises two possible predictions for the future.

A third might be sideways movement. But China has a history over extremes, and if current slowdown measures don't work soon, FXI and FXP could grow more distant from each other than we could imagine. I'm just watching from afar for now.

Aloha Friday

Dow Jones 10,620 -162.79 -1.51%

NASDAQ 2,346 -47.51 -1.09%

S&P 500 1,135 -21.76 -1.88%

Can a 162-point drop on the Dow ever be a positive sign? After dropping about 230 or 240 points intraday, the Dow rallied into the close. So did the Nasdaq and S&P 500.

I didn't get up until about 5 am Hawaii time, 90 minutes into the session. I missed HAUP's gap up and run to 4.85. Like yesterday, when it ran crazy in the final two hours on a press release involving Apple, I wanted a retracement to Fibonacci levels. It didn't happen. That's what happens when a 92-cent stock increases in one day by five-fold.

A down market is one thing, but this one had a range underwater and I wanted some AAPL, which bottomed at 249.50, but ran to 252 or so in the second half of the day. But FAZ and VXX intrigued me; aside from HAUP, there was nothing else on my screen that was green aside from inverse ETFs/ETNs. It was a great day to be short the market coming in, not after the fact.

Still, I tried. FAZ settled into a range between 13.80 and 14.00, and I got shares at 13.96. Teetered, tottered and I held up and down, revising my exit point along the way several times. However, when I added more shares at 14.06, that was basically the all-points-bulletin for shorts to pile in. It ran to 14.13 for a second, then sold off and I got out at 13.86. Could've been worse, but I should've gotten out at break-even or somewhere above 14. It was a good trade in the sense that I limited the loss in a turbulent market. But timing is still an issue. I sold these shares of FAZ yesterday before the bell at 12.51 for a 10-cent loss. I didn't want to hold anything overnight, which cost me $1.50 on today's gain.

By the close, AAPL had run from 250 to 254. The banks ran, too, to no surprise. C was at 3.92 for most of the afternoon* before closing at 3.98.

The inverse ETFs/ETNs closed weaker but were still green. Nice green, too.

• EUO 24.60 (+0.57, +2.37%)

• EPV 25.94 (+1.52, +6.22%)

• FAZ 13.75 (+1.08, +8.52%)

• FXP 44.11 (+1.62, +3.84%)

• SDS 32.05 (+1.12, +3.65)

• SKF 19.76 (+1.06, +5.67%)

• TMF 36.87 (+1.95, ++5.58)

• TZA 6.10 (+0.33, +5.71%)

• UUP 25.21 (+0.23, +0.92%)

• VXX 26.86 (+2.13, +8.63)

EUO is a steady short on the euro, not a high flyer like VXX, but very consistent. FXP (short China) is interesting, but I'm not comfortable touching that yet. Getting more familiar, though. No good news out of China for awhile. In other words, the slightest good news will wreck the FXP and fuel the FXI (down 21% the past year).

TMF (30-year treasury index) is killing it. Go Grandma! UUP, the U.S. dollar, is also solid.

GLD and SLV are down fractionally. Overbought, yes, but people will stay in for the most part. Or go to treasury bonds, maybe TMF.

US Steel (X) sold off 5.66% today. Other big sells were in NFLX (100.56, -9.45, -8.59%) and ETFs like FAS (-8.74%), STD (-7.28%), and financials like IRE (-4.44%). GS is down 1%. C rallied into the close from 3.91 to 3.99 (-0.11, -2.69%).

HAUP held up fairly well, despite the tape, and closed at 3.93 (+0.90, +29.70%). Missed my opportunity there, but it could be interesting on a retracement to 3.38 and lower.

IMAX down just 0.57% to 19.30. A nice rally since dipping to 17 last week.

Next week is a mystery to me. My gut says better hedge than go long, but anything can happen over the weekend, especially with the Euro league of nations.

An AAPL/VXX pairing sounds interesting, but I don't want to deal with any slippage by VXX again. Staying 100% cash for now.

The week was a series of losses, mostly small, with a few wins. Study time. I think one key note is that I'm sticking better to discipline now, an improvement from earlier in the week. No matter how much I like AAPL, it's subject to the whims of the market like everyone else. Dry powder rules.

Bloody Red Friday morning

Long night of work Thursday left me short on sleep, but waking up to a market in red is bittersweet. Yeah, emotion has no place in trading, but even though I'm 100% in cash, I'd rather study the moment than move too quickly 90 minutes into the session.

Dow -179 (-2.16%)

Nas -52 (-1.56%)

S&P -23 (-2.04%)

• HAUP and it's tiny 8-million share float have become a lottery ticket of sorts. Shares opened at 8 am Eastern higher at 3.50, and opened at 4.32. HAUP hit a high of 4.85, then sold off to the 4.00 level twice since the opening bell. Currently at 4.25 (+1.20, +39.60%). How long can HAUP stay up in a negative market?

Never returned to the Fibonacci levels I posted yesterday. Hard to believe people still shorted HAUP after the press release about Apple. Then again, I didn't buy any shares like I intuitively wanted to. Trying to be disciplined here...

• FAZ, which I sold at a tiny loss at 12.51 before the close yesterday, is at 13.77 (+1.10, +8.68%) now, near its high of the day. In fact, all the short ETFs are in happy town this morning. VXX (27.42, +2.67, +10.56%) is tearing it up big, which is interesting. It was quiet yesterday, actually in negative territory, while most of the market was slightly down. More true to its normal behavior today. I was starting to believe VXX moved more when there was violence on financial TV, i.e. Greek riots.

• GLD and SLV are in the red, proving that even hot precious metals have their topping points, and boy, were they topped out. Barf city, finally, but a great run for cautious traders. GLD (119.71, -0.85, -0.71%) isn't doing badly compared to the rest of the market.

• TMT, the 30-year treasuries ETF, is up 6.10% to 37.05. How nice is that? And how weird. Treasuries? I'm following this first the first time. This is Grandma speeding down the road in a Camaro. Vroom Vroom!

•As expected, there's action in the FXI and FXP. I didn't want to touch either even as China's market is at a -21% correction. FXP is up 5.3% this morning to 44.68. JJC, the copper ETF and second cousin of FXI, is predictably down 2.35% to 42.36. Not sure how much lower China can go, but it's pretty scary from the long side.

The gutsy traders are picking up shares there pretty cheap.

• FXE is down 1.18% to 123.46. If the euro were to make a comeback, this would've been the day after a week of dips. Euro bulls are hating this, but printing out a trillion dollars of new bills doesn't add value, so FXE is stagnant for some time, most likely. Meanwhile, EUO (short euro) is up 2.33% to 24.59.

I'm still 100% cash. I missed the early morning run on the hedge side, but I'm not drowning in a sea of red on the long side either. ChessnWine at iBankCoin is a genius, of course. He called the downturn two days ago while the market was revving up on the long side. He and The Fly, with their time machine, a.k.a. The PPT, are kicking royal ass.

The Dow is now down -211. It's early Friday... can it get worse before the close? Or do we get a pre-weekend rally?

Game plan

ChessnWine is one of my favorite chartists/technical analysts. His breakdowns at iBankCoin are concise and clear. Here, he explains the problems in the euro in a concrete way. I've watched the price action in the FXE (Euro Trust) and EUO (short Euro) ETFs ... both have, predictably, worked in favor of the short position this week as the EU gave up on its own currency, for all intents and purposes.

So, it's another idea to chalk up for tomorrow. If the Euro crashes through support, EUO may catch fire.

More ideas...

• FAZ. I tried before the close, but lost my discipline and didn't buy according to my intraday technicals. (Last time I bring the laptop with me to the john during trading hours.) But looking forward, any breakdown here makes FAZ a prime candidate, even over VXX. Speaking of which...

• VXX was dead with a minor gain for most of the day, then stepped up near the close. Though the markets were underwater most of the day, it wasn't by much and VXX was in the red. Goes to show, VXX is not a short play, necessarily. It truly is a measurement of fear and loathing, and unless TV networks air violent riots and shootings and corrupt banksters testifying before Congress, VXX is a quiet puppy. (Actually, the market shot up when Vikram Pandit testified, but he wasn't defending anything and he isn't a bankster, really.)

• If the run is done for GLD and SLV, TMT (30-Year Treasuries Bull 3x) might be the preferred safe haven. GLD and SLV may get back on track tomorrow, but if they continue to consolidate, I don't know if money will move back to equities. TMT is interesting. Never been there, but there's real action there.

• FXI (Xinhua/China 25 Index) has been beaten to a pulp, down more than 20% and the whole world knows China's economy is overheating. The short ETF for this is FXP. However, I'm not touching either without a new tipping point in either direction. Checked on the copper ETF, JRR, and it trades in correlation with FXI, to no surprise.

All cash here. I'm in hunting mode, but saving my ammo only for clear shots.