Simple as ABC?

1:17 am (Hawaii) I like my little charts and trendlines and megaphone and pennant patterns. I like candlesticks too, however reliable (or not) they may be. But it's fun now and then to visit American Bulls for their view of stocks. Here's what they say through their candlestick analysis as of Wed Oct 19:

AAPL - Sell confirmed
AGQ - Sell confirmed
DGP - Sell confirmed
SPY - Sell-if...
QQQ - Sell-if...
QID - Buy confirmed
FCX - Wait
EUO - Buy confirmed

Isn't this interesting? All the indicators (at least in my book) of a bullish short-term view are negative, from AAPL to precious metals to bear indice ETFs. So how about financials?

FAS - Buy-if...
FAZ - Buy-if...

So that confirms the confusion and hesitancy of not just me, but of plenty of traders and investors regarding the banks. No surprise that the bank stocks remain choppy, range-bound and largely untouched lately. Or is that really the case?

BAC - Buy-if...
AIG - Sell-if...
C - Sell-if...
GS - Sell-if...
JPM - Buy-if...
MS -  Sell-if...

Less positive than I expected. I don't like the banksters, but even this is more bearish than I would've guessed just by the way they've held up through the past week with JPM and GS announcing far less stellar earnings than expected.

NBG - Wait
IRE - Wait
DB - Buy-if...

There are more Eurozone banks but that's enough. As I fall asleep for the night (and premarket opens in 30 minutes), I'm content to stay the heck out for today. The most bullish thing that could happen is Merkel and Sarkozy release the details of their grand plan to save the European monetary system. That would take the US market and precious metals higher since printing all that fiat money will be nothing but a short-term fix. Then the junkie becomes more dependent on the juice (fiat printing).

Titilating Thursday

10:20 am (Hawaii) Quite a stimulating session for bulls. I was asleep, away in Dreamland. Must've been good. I don't remember a thing, but my countenance is even. Meanwhile, the indices finished positive. The Nas up for an eighth day in a row.

I stayed out after watching the open. I missed this run up and I didn't want to catch the inevitable fall down. As expected, hotties XG and EXK made pit stops today after major moves higher. XG down 0.8% to 14.37 (afterhours) and EXK down 0.5% to 9.66.

More numbers came out today, more positive for the market, but really, it's all momentum based on the assumption that the debt ceiling will be raised and that the Eurozone has a better grip on its debt crisis for now. It's like this: FAS and FAZ are at extremes from one day to the next, regardless of how the indices are doing. Logically, FAZ should be crushing, but there's JPM (+1.9%), Citi (+1.7%), BAC (+1.7%), STD (+1.2%), GS (+0.9%) and so on. All these banksters eventually will run out of government handouts. Just a matter of when the plug gets pulled and they start gagging on their own poison. I don't think the big boys will die. They'll just languish until the market corrects itself without the life support provided by the doomed fractional reserve system.

My Metals list is 71% green, but the depth of huge gainers has been reduced. "Only" 18 issues gained at least 1.5%. FAS and UCO are in this list as convenient indicators for the broader view, but both were up more than 4% today. REE (+3.8%), PALL (+2.8%), MCP (+2.5%), CU (+2.4) were very strong for the rare earths and non-gold, non-silver traders. Copper's recent run hasBrother Turd pointing to a possible repeat of its run of last year.

You've probably been wondering about that, too. With Greece and the global debt crises, so much is similar to last year's market behavior: Lackluster in the spring, total launching pad in July and rocket ship action to the end of the year. Is that going to happen again in 2011? If they kick the proverbial can down the road again, it's clear the big money would like this to be so. Self-fulfilling prophecy and all that.

But I would add this: volume is sinking as this hot streak of the past week-plus continues. Here's a look at today's big winners on my Metals list.

FAS - volume up today compared to yesterday

UCO - volume way up, nearly double

REE - volume lower

PALL - volume lower

MCP - volume lower

CU - volume higher

AGQ - volume lower

PSLV - volume similar

AVL - volume lower

JJC - volume lower

COPX - volume HUGE

GG - volume higher

XME - volume lower

PLTM - volume higher

PGM - volume lower

AG - volume lower

DBB - volume similar

GOLD - volume higher

AGOL - volume higher

PPLT - volume HUGE

SLV - volume lower

WITE - volume lower

DBS - volume lower

Those are the metals on my list that were up more than 1%. For the most part, volume was lower today going into tomorrow's key report. It's been a quiet week, news wise, in Europe, and last week's end-of-month window dressing has carried over.

My Regular watch list is 78% green with PSUN, yes that PSUN (occasionally loved by Le Fly) up 10.2% today. There's better depth here than in my Metals list.

PSUN - volume HUGE

WNR - volume up big

VCLK - volume up

VLO - volume up HUGE

FCX - volume up HUGE

LVS - volume up HUGE

MNW - volume up

SWY - volume lower

RLOC - volume lower

CLNE - volume lower

GOOG - volume higher

ENY - volume similar

USO - volume higher

AMRN - volume higher

APC - volume similar

OWW - volume lower

FORM - volume higher

MSFT - volume higher.

All of these are stocks that gained at least 2% with the exception of MSFT (+1.8%). AAPL (+1.6%) moved up to 357 on lower volume. AMZN up 1.5% on higher volume. BIDU up 0.8% on similar volume. NFLX up 0.8% on lower volume.

It's good to be aware of the surroundings. Not everyone had the foresight to park money in NFLX, PCLN and AAPL below 50 and forget about it for a few years.

Burn rubbuh

(Art: Jasper Goodall)

12:15 pm (Hawaii). UCO fell off a cliff for several sessions before gapping today with crude oil's rally. On the daily, UCO has traded technically (stochastics) for the past month. Today's MACD is inconclusive, however, and volume was small. At 53, it is mired in a range (47-57) that makes a buy here edgeless. Violence in the Middle East is practically priced into the market. Obama isn't about to make a grand decision while in Rio. Maybe a grand gesture, but the White House has been loathe to assume USA-as-world-police status.

So, the 7.1% move in UCO was great for yesterday's buyers. I'll keep watch from the rafters.

66% of my watch list is in the green afterhours. CRR, another oil-related play, is up 6.5%. ENY, a Canadian oil play, is up 3.7%. VLO +2.3%. Even OIH is up 3.4%. WNR (refiner) is plus 1.5%.

With food prices soaring, Ag is another play. MOS is up 2%.

Metals? FCX bounced 4.2%. NGD is up 3.8%. SLW is +1.7% to 39.09. EXK +1.3% to 8.42. X is +1.6%.

Most of the market gains, however, slipped away in the afternoon. Still a positive day for DJIA (+161, +1.4%), Nasdaq (+19, +0.7%) and S&P 500 (+16, +1.3%). Not convinced just yet, though. If Japan continues to make progress on the Fukushima nuclear reactors, screens will remain green. But it smells like a dead cat, and it is obvious that many traders get out before the closing bell. It's a nibbler's market.

Bombing out today were TVIX (55.97, -7%), which actually rallied off its low of 53.12. LULU (-4.2%), EDZ (-4.1%), VXX (-3.1%), CMG (-2.6%), AMZN (-2.1%), QID (-2%) all bit dust today.

The Globe & Mail: Fukushima 50 risking their lives to try to prevent meltdown (Mar 17 2011)
MarketWatch: UN backs no-fly zone, strikes in Libya (Mar 17 2011)
MarketWatch: Oil futures top $103 after UN vote on Libya (Mar 17 2011)
Rohan Clarke: Less money, more money — QE3 in the headlights (Mar 17 2011)
Charles Rotblut: Bullish sentiment craters (Mar 17 2011)
BBC: Cable reaches Japan nuclear plant (Mar 17 2011)
Majoni* Celebrations: Wearables that contribute and show support (Mar 17 2011)
WSJ: Retailers push Amazon on taxes (Mar 17 2011)
IBD: Lululemon falls as demand outpaces inventory (Mar 17 2011)
WCSI News Talk: Former Shell Oil prez predicts $5 gas in 2012 (Mar 17 2011)
IBD: Yanzhou Coal, Carbo Ceramics up (Mar 17 2011)

(photo: Carbo Ceramics)

Skittish you are

The market is looking quite uncertain this morning. It began with crude oil futures spiking over 102, then brought back to 99 by the opening bell. I'm looking for a retrace by UCO to 12.87 (50% of today's premarket gain) before I dip in. I got lots of rest overnight, even with the aches and threat of a bad flu. Show must go on.

There are equities in the green — MOS, GLD, X, FCX. Also some big NASDAQ names like AAPL, AMZN, BIDU. An AAPL retrace to 343.98 is interesting (currently 343.53). And UCO is bouncing off 12.80 now.

SLW got knocked down this morning as silver futures took a big hit just before the opening bell. Funny how that happens.

Update: 5:20 am (Hawaii). UCO nosediving a bit here, now 12.74. Immediate support at 12.67, also support at 11.60, but if this fills the gap from the past week, it could sink as low as 11.

Update, 1:26 pm (Hawaii). Just woke up a few minutes ago, catching up on today's moves. Holy crude. UCO hovered in the 12.80s until 2:01 pm Eastern, then fell off a cliff and didn't stop until 11.91 90 minutes later. (Now trading at 12.22 AH.) Brutal. I'm thankful that I stayed out of the market. Again. Fast Money saying that margins were increased, that this made a huge difference, more than the terror in Libya, the assurances of the Saudis, etc.

Also amazing to see SLW drop even lower than it was when I fell asleep. LOD was 38.38, now at 38.60 AH. SLV, which I no longer trust, began its decline at 2:13 Eastern — 12 minutes after UCO nosedived — and went from 32.44 to 30.95 by 3:18 pm Eastern. Now at 32.55 AH.

Market finished generally flat. DJ -0.3%, S&P -0.1%, NASDAQ +0.55%. AAPL, AMZN, BIDU fractionally up. AAPL was lingering at its LOD 338 when it began its rally — roughly 2 pm Eastern. So, as oil and metals went down, AAPL soared to 343 in almost a straight line. AAPL is at 342.98 in AH.

Terrible Tuesday

Dow Jones 9,870.30 -268.30 -2.65%
NASDAQ 2,135.18 -85.47 -3.85%
S&P 500 1,041.24 -33.33 -3.1%

Did you get bitten today? Did you stay long in this flaky market without protection? Do you walk the streets and let thugs take your hard-earned money? I've been 100% cash for nearly three weeks, but if I were ever to go long, I'd definitely hedge my bets — be honest, everything in the market is a calculated guess — with VXX or FAZ and maybe have some safer plays like GLD and TLT.

TECH KINGS
Apple has its share of complaints over iPhone 4, but they continue to sell, sell, sell what may be the most addictive piece of technology on the planet. Shares, though, bit the dust today, down 4.52% to 256.17. This is an entry price I could love, but even here I want to wait for 250. I'd rather catch this ride on the way up than possibly on the way further down.

So, all the Android devotees who happen to be iPhone haters should be loving Google, but shares dropped 3.77% to 454.26. I like this price, too, but I'm watching from afar.

BIDU fell 9.23% to 67.57 as China did a swan dive. Still the search king of China with the backing of Big Brother. Sub 60 would be compelling.

NFLX closed down 4.28% to 112.58. The swings here are wild and I don't like it long term against the competition that is pounding down the door, like Apple. On that note, IMAX dipped as low as 14.28 before ending the day at 14.88 (-4.43%). Like Netflix, Imax has serious competition coming sooner rather than later.

EURO ZONE
FCX was down only 0.63% (121.56), but craziness across the region (Greek riots, German leadership issue, Spanish unemployment, yadayada) did nothing good for global markets. NBG was flat at 2.23. No banks were burned down. However, IRE dropped 6.91% (3.37).

SAFE PLAYS
GLD closed barely up (121.27 +0.15%) while TLT (20-year Treasury Bond) was up 1.09% to 101.07. TLT has a chance to stay above 100 for awhile. There's no real catalyst coming to the market for the bulls in the visible future.

ENERGY
USO (US Oil Fund ETF) dropped 2.95% to 34.17. BP went the other way, gaining 2.29% to 27.75. Not touching that POS.

Natural gas wilted. UNG caved 3.88% to 7.67. My list of 40 natty gassers got smoked again, dropping 5.27% today. They dipped into the red as a group for the first time since Obama's clean energy speech nearly four weeks ago. That's bad news on bad news. WPRT, which was once the leader with a 30% gain, is now up just 4.83%. PETD still has a sizable gain of 25.83%, but almost everything else is in the red or has a modest single-digit gain. No catalyst, no luck.

First Solar (FLSR) also fell, losing 4.03% to 114.42. One of last week's hotties, Trina Solar (TSL), dripped 5.06% to 17.26.

Chinese energy ate dust today. PetroChina (110.51 -3.45%) and CNOOC (168.80 -4.44%) sank. Whimsical solar play Yingli Green Energy (YGE) lowered to 9.88 (5.64%).

CHINA & HEAVY METAL
FXI tumbled 4.03% to 39.31. Freeport-McMoran (FCX) crumbled 5.55% to 61.07. US Steel (X) gave back 5.87% tp 39.11 and Posco (PKX) gave up 6.22% to 94.84.

PROTECTION
VXX finished with a 9.26% gain to 30.79 after hitting a high of 31.34 in the final hour. Shares were below 25 last week.

FAZ moved big, 10.48% to 16.82. I've had good trades in FAZ before, but haven't touched it in months. Finnies are now just a wee bit too fucking crazy for me to decipher most times.

Staying in 100% cash while insanity prevails on Wall Street. Have fun!

Frazzled Friday

Dow Jones 10,143.81 -8.99 -0.09%
NASDAQ 2,223.48 +3.07 +0.29%
S&P 500 1,076.76 +3.07 +0.29%

Reform is good, but it is no cure and it clearly isn't the catalyst in itself. Today's session was in the green most of the way, but sold off toward the close and essentially closed flat. Sectors that benefited from today's final financial reform bill work on Capitol Hill were (of course) financials and, you guessed it, Chinese energy.

FINANCIALS
Goldman Sachs gained 4.68% to 139.66, capping a nice move from 133 earlier in the week. The intraday high was 140.90. Citigroup closed at 3.94 (+4.23%) after a spooky descent the past few days.

Big winners were buyers of FAS (22.80 +7.17%).

EURO ZONE
FXE traded up (123.44 +0.47%) while the US Dollar (UUP) lost 0.56% (24.83).

Euro banks benefited from the finreg bill. Banco Santander, like their successful national team, finished up (11.05 +1.66%). IRE (3.70 +1.93%) also rose, though NBG fell (2.25 -1.32%).

CHINA ENERGY
With BP selling off chunks of fine, moneymaking operations, entities like CNOOC (CEO) are swooping in. CEO gained 1.93% to 175.24 while PetroChina (PTR) moved up 0.50% to 115.10.

Chinese solar plays are hot again, probably new festering ground for traders who banked big gains in US natural gas stocks the past few weeks. Trina Solar (TSL) had a big bump of 4.09% to 18.33 after landing a deal with the University of Queensland (Australia).

Yingli Green Energy (YGE) gained 3.89% to 10.68, riding the sector's momentum.

US ENERGY
The rise of crude oil to $78/barrel is helping solar plays back in the US. First Solar (FSLR) picked up 2.04% to 119.26. Solar is still "expensive" in the sense that it can't survive without federal subsidies for the most part. Solar will climb as crude prices rise. As usual.

Nat Gas had its best day in about a week, reviving in a big way. My list of 40 natty gassers gained a cumulative 2.12%. NGS was the biggest gainer (+7.65% to 16.74) and HERO (2.80 +5.66%) was second.

Two of my favorites, WPRT (16.70 +1.83%) and CLNE (15.97 +3.9%) did fine. So did another play I like, HGT (20.59 +3.05%).

The natty gasser with the biggest gain since Obama's speech is PETD (26.99 +29.57%).

As for oil, BP resumed its tumultuous descent, losing 5.98% to 26.92. Again, the sector traded well, having pruned BP from its collective sentiment. US Oil Fund (ETF) gained 3.69% to 35.66.

SAFE PLAYS
GLD gained 1.2% to 122.90 and TLT was slightly up (99.05 +0.41%).

CHINA & HEAVY METAL
FXI gained 1.01% to 41.18. Copper did well; FCX rocketed 4.93% to 66.57. US Steel rose 2.83% to 43.24. Metals have been so productive lately that the relative volatility shouldn't have scared me away.

TECH KINGS
Hibernation time for AAPL longs. Shares sold off again, as expected, losing 0.86% to 266.70. I'm waiting for a chance to snare shares at 260 or maybe 250.

GOOG lost 0.51% to 472.68. Another buying opportunity may be nearing, though I'm not in a rush. Even with AdMob and Android, GOOG is not as appealing to me as AAPL.

BIDU gained 3.12% to 76.10, arguably the best mover in the sector. They have no real competition in China. Big Brother is on its side. Baidu will not be beaten.

All in all, still 100% cash and no plans to change as the weekend begins. Just a few more days before Q2 ends, so window dressing may be in store as fund managers trample over each other to establish positions. Or not. If the market has another crash soon, I'll be ready.

What's hot, what's not

A candlestick update from American Bulls.

AAPL (270.97): "Sell Confirmed"
BIDU (76.19): "Buy If"
C (3.89): "Sell Confirmed"
CLNE (16.17): "Wait"
FAZ (15.05): "Hold"
FCX (65.06): "Hold"
FXE (122.69): "Buy If"
FXI (41.26): "Hold"
GLD (120.95): "Hold"
GLDD (6.14): "Wait"
GOOG (482.05): "Hold"
GS (135.07): "Wait"
LVS (27.04): "Hold"
PKX (105.14): "Sell If"
SBUX (27.32): "Buy If"
SCO (15.06): "Hold"
SD (6.25): "Wait"
SLV (18.18): "Buy If"
STD (11.30): "Buy If"
TLT (99.24): "Hold"
UUP (24.97): "Sell If"
VXX (26.71): "Sell If"
WPRT (17.05): "Wait"
X (44.06): "Buy If"

Tepid Tuesday

Dow Jones 10,293.52 -148.89 -1.43%
NASDAQ 2,261.80 -27.29 -1.19%
S&P 500 1,095.31 -17.89 -1.61%

I'll say it again: this is a market that can have traders sprinting on those mouse wheels like a treadmill all morning and afternoon. It can also be an opportunity to shut the computer down, take a ride and enjoy some sunshine and pristine waters at the local beach. In my case, there are many choices. An hour just chilling in the water under a hot Hawaiian sun and some cool trade winds was the perfect tonic for my day.

I missed AAPL's rebound today as the news of 3 million iPads sold carried over. But I didn't miss another early gain and later decline. Volume is so light at this time of year and my time off is so limited, there are simple choices for those of us in the middle of the Pacific during the hours of 2 am to 2 pm.

1. Sleep, hit the beach, relax.
2. Sleep, wake up every few hours, check the market, back to sleep.
3. Watch every tick for 12 hours straight.

I prefer 1 and 2 for the rest of this month. I'll be on the lookout for AAPL shares below 260, maybe 250. The last two lows were 231 and 242. Expecting another low below 250 would be expecting a bit too much, I believe. But AAPL has proven that it will consolidate for months before exploding again, and we're in the midst of that now, possibly.

Fund managers don't want to be out of AAPL as Q2 closes at the end of this month. But they'll be more than happy to shake out weak hands and grab all they can below 260 or 250. So I wait.

TECH KINGS
AAPL gained 1.36% to 273.85. It's a dangerous scenario, potentially. There are traders who want their small gains on a daily basis. There are longs who wisely have held since 78 last year (March 2009). If the global economy tanks, everyone gets washed out to sea without mercy. Caution advised.

GOOG fell just a bit (-0.47%) to 486.96. Is this the opportunity to jump in before the Google train leaves the station? Or is a ledge below the cliff, and there's nowhere to go but down? I don't know. I'm asking you.

CHINA & HEAVY METAL
BIDU couldn't buck the trend for a second day in a row and lost 0.89% to 75.68. The FXI lost 1.56% to 40.95, giving back a small portion of recent gains. FCX lost 4.25% to 65.19 and US Steel (X) dropped 3.07% to 43.59.

It's a short-term trader's paradise.

EURO
The FXE lost just 0.33% (122.38) while the US dollar (UUP) was up 0.16% to 25.07.

FINANCIALS
Stateside, Goldman Sachs lost 2.14% to 134.79 and C dropped 1.99% to 3.94. Abroad, Santander (STD) lost 1.83% to 11.25, IRE got smacked (3.88 -7.18%) and NBG slipped 2.03% to 2.41.

FAZ fed off the selloff and gained 4.92% to 14.92.

ENERGY
If all of this felt vaguely bearish or even bullish in your optimistic view, try this: All 40 of the stocks on my Nat Gas list finished in the red today, a first since Obama's clean energy speech 19 days ago. Red, red, red. There's just sorta exception in VNR, which broke even for the day.

If the Nat Gas sector, which has an edge over most, can't get positive, it might be a setback for the broader market. Sure, Gulf drillers may have gotten a reprieve today, but for how long? Does the State of Louisiana really think it can win against the President? Do we really need for all drillers to go back to work in the Gulf? There has to be a reasonable compromise that can keep workers employed without risking one or two more preposterous catastrophes.

USO (United States Oil Fund ETF) finished down 0.93% even with the Louisiana challenge. Meanwhile, the ultra-short oil ETF, SCO, gained 1.7% to 14.35, oddly enough.

SAFETY
VXX gained again, this time 1.01% to 26.49 and making those who entered below 25 geniuses.

FAZ was far from the only inverse ETN to gain nicely today. DRV (Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3x) gained 9.74% to 6.87.

TZA (Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3x) ran up 6.29% to 6.97.

GLD reversed recent downward momentum and gained 0.88% to close at 121.45. TLT gained 1.19% to 98.57.

All in all, some interesting viewing from the bleachers. It might not be the worst time to pair AAPL and VXX, since there's no guarantee whatsoever of direction for either. But I'm not interested in that kind of excitement for now.

Flatulent Friday: Are we toppy now?

Dow Jones 10,450.64 +16.47 +0.16%
NASDAQ 2,309.80 +2.64 +0.11%
S&P 500 1,117.51 +1.47 +0.13%

Between quad witching and the overwhelming emotional baggage of 1) BP's Gulf oil disaster, 2) Euro percolation, 3) renewed fears of US housing/jobs/financials fuck ups, 4) China inflation, 5) North Korean shitstinkery and more, the market simply seemed exhausted by today. What little buying there was surely was limited to a minority of issues like AAPL, which closed at an all-time high of 274.07 on 30 million shares traded — roughly 25% more volume than usual.

While there wasn't a whole lot of buying pressure, there was even less selling pressure. There are all kinds of reasons for this, but the main one is simple: With $27 billion outflowing from the market so far this year, it's all been reduced to trading desks, high-frequency trading machines and day traders. No blame to go around from this little tower. We wanted to eat the forbidden fruit of market capitalism, and the food chain developed instantly. Whether it's algorithms or the invention of the wheel, whoever capitalizes on new technology will usually win while the remaining masses howl with fever over disadvantage and conspiracy.

I could easily complain, but I'd rather just get a good night's sleep, wake up at a nice hour like 6 or 8 am Hawaii time, and observe. So I missed a chance to re-enter my beloved AAPL. So what. I'll get another chance sooner rather than later. AAPL run-ups are often met with ridiculously steep sell-offs, or simply continue running, especially after a few weeks of consolidation. It won't bother me to ride AAPL from 280 to 300 at all. If I can get in at 250 next week, better yet.

But this is the world we live in, when a single currency has markets fretting, and Earth's greatest tech retailer ever can be practically felled in one swoop (from 200 to 78 not so long ago) because of a housing/financial crisis.

For the record, the eight stocks I'm watching closely were mostly in the red today.

Up:
• AAPL 274.07 (+0.81%)
• SD 6.86 (+1.78%)

Down:
• CLNE 17.15 (-0.81%)
• CSTR 48.95 (-4.56%)
• GLDD 5.34 (-0.78%)
• TGP 30.03 (-0.07%)
• UNG 8.53 (-2.29%)
• WPRT 18.62 (-2%)

I'm still 100% cash, waiting for the market to settle down (which it has) and provide a clue about direction (which it hasn't).

TECH KINGS

AAPL was at 242 last week Wednesday. This feels like the consolidation months back when shares drifted between 195 and 215 before popping on what became a two-month odyssey that topped out at 272 on that climatic earnings day. Love Apple or not, the iPad and iPhone G4 are ruling the geek universe and the normal world simultaneously.

Next week is a liftoff to 300 or it pulls back to 255, maybe 250. How many stocks keep revving higher in a flat market, seven sessions in a row? I can think of one.

FINANCIALS
GS (137.82 +0.63%) and C (4.01 +1.26%) didn't move as much as their Euro counterparts. I still don't like finnies long term. Too many damned questions.

EURO

FXE was basically flat (123.36 -0.11%) while STD (11.53 +2.31%) lost roughly half of its early gain. Those boys at Banco Santander have balls of steel, calling out the Eurozone (Germany, in particular) by demanding stress tests, then grading out No. 1 in leaked reports. Then STD turns out to be a bullish buyer on both sides of the Atlantic. If Santander were a sports team, I'd be a fan. They take care of their shit.

IRE moved up big, 3.86% to 4.30. NBG lost 1.63% to 2.41, but I have no desire to touch any Greek stocks. Ever.

HEAVY METALS
FCX was flat (65.90 +0.14%) and FXI was equally quiet (40.66 +0.10%). US Steel (X) lost 1.56% to 43.41, ending a very turbulent week with ups and downs. SLV moved up again (18.75 +2.29%).

SAFE PLAYS

GLD up again (122.83 +0.76%) and gets a lot of headlines for all-time highs in the metal, but really ... so what? Sure, it gains quite a bit from a 2- or 3-year perspective, or a 5- or 10-year perspective. It's a hedge against inflation, against dwindling currencies ... and unless you hoard bars of the pretty yellow metal, your paper ownership can be "confiscated" by Uncle Sam in times of dire need.

I like gold/GLD as a small piece of the portfolio, nothing more.

TLT also flat today (97.69 -0.16%).

ENERGY
USO up 0.77% to 35.41. BP had another "boring" day with a 0.16% gain to 31.76. All BP shareholders are hoping for plenty of these quiet days.

My Nat Gas 40, a collection of the first 40 sector plays I found on the day of Obama's clean energy speech (15 days ago), was up 0.02% today. As a whole, the 40 are up 12.19%, staying flat the past few days.

Bronco Drilling (BRNC) had a massive gain of 9.84% to 4.24 today and is now up 21.8% since Obama's talk. PQ (+4%), PETD (+3.15%), NGS (+2.57%), GDP (+2.48%) also had nice moves today. In all, 18 of the 40 were in the green today.

My favorite natty gassers, WPRT (18.62 -2%) and CLNE (17.15 -0.81%) were down. UNG sold off 2.29% to 8.53. It remains a buy below 8.00 and a sell above 8.75. It's one of those notorious plays that traders love and investors hated and still hate due to its incredible lack of strength. At this level, though, it's playing fair. It just trades so freaky compared to the sector so often. It'll gain massively while the entire sector is in the red that day. Then it'll tank as high fliers with tiny floats move up, up, up.

Overall, however, this is probably as stable as the industry has been in the market for some time. All because of BP, and all because of Obama, who reiterated his stance on clean energy earlier in the week. That staved off what would've been inevitable mass selling after several natty gassers hit 20%-plus gains in less than two weeks.

Eventually, though, the sector needs another catalyst. Obama can stoke the fire only so many times. The industry needs some real roots into America's energy grid. Question is when.

Happy Father's Day weekend, everybody. Aloha!

Options madness is over ... is this market finally topping out?

World Cup Wednesday

Dow Jones 10,434.17 +24.71 +0.24%
NASDAQ 2,307.16 +1.23 +0.05%
S&P 500 1,116.04 +1.43 +0.13%

Anyone like soccer? I have no idea who's going to win the World Cup. It's entertaining to a point, but like those weird kazoo noisemakers that are so popular in South Africa, it will soon pass.

The market was relatively narrow today for the most part. I slept halfway through, strangely not disappointed to see AAPL continue its climb while I watch from the bleachers. Though Apple continues to amaze and I have my doubts about this propped-up market, there are some interesting twists and turns coming as a result of BP's doomsday disaster.

CNOOC (CEO) is a Chinese energy play that I enjoyed watching two, three years ago, but never traded. It remains in a role of little brother to Goliath PetroChina (PTR) in that part of the world known as the Middle Kingdom.

What's interesting about CNOOC now is that it could be in acquisitive mode now that BP is in deep-shit territory. If BP is forced to unload property to raise cash, CNOOC will be ready and willing, according to this story. This is far from breaking news; CEO was at a low of 152 nine days ago and closed today at 173.

Yup, I hear ya. Holy crap.

It's BP's other wells that CNOOC is interested in. It's like breaking up the Yankees, basically. Most major-league teams would be happy to snag A-Rod or Mariano Rivera or Derek Jeter or ... especially at a discount. That makes CEO an interesting watch. I'm not entertaining any notions of buying it here at 173 — already at a 14% gain since June 8. But I'm keeping an eye on it. CEO was listed as a "Buy If" by American Bulls on the candlestick chart reading coming into today's session. With a fractional drop today, CEO is probably still in a near-breakout level.

The market rallied into the close on low volume again, though AAPL had plenty of trading and closed at 271.91 (+1.74%). Shares hit a high of 272.90 early, but dipped below 270 by the end of the first hour of trading. After a rally back near 272, shares fell to 270 before rallying in the final half hour. That kept VXX below 26.00 for the day; it broke above that level briefly before AAPL mounted that late comeback.

US FINANCIALS
Flat, flat, flat. GS up 0.19% to 137.32. C down 0.75% to 3.96. FAZ, the inverse ultra-short ETF, gained just 0.42%.

EURO
STD, which fell flat on its face yesterday, gained 2.45% to 11.27 today. Such a nice move lately after dipping below 10 in recent weeks. There's a lot of confidence in Santander despite mediocre jobs numbers in Espanol. Other Euro banks did not so well. IRE fell 0.96% to 4.14 and NBG dropped 0.81% to 2.45.

The euro (FXE) rose 0.71% to 123.49 while the dollar (UUP) slipped 0.60% to 24.95.

SAFE PLAYS
GLD gained 1.3% to 121.90 and TLT (20-year Treasurys ETF) picked up 0.81% to 97.85.

TECH/INTERNET KINGS
AAPL finished up 1.71% to 271.82 and GOOG was flat (500.08 -0.24%). BIDU lost 3.13% to 72.47

RETAIL/ENTERTAINMENT
NFLX gained 0.91% to 125.80 while CSTR fell 2.32% to 51.29. The momo is gone for CSTR, which rose yesterday on news of a deal with Paramount for early releases of DVDs. CSTR lost almost all its gain intraday yesterday and continues to sell. Below 50 might warrant a closer look.

ENERGY
While BP lost just 0.44% to 31.71, USO (oil ETF) dropped nearly 1% to 35.14, halting a significant run lately.

The Nat Gas sector got hammered for a second day in a row, but gains since Obama's clean energy speech remain massive. UNG bucked the trend and closed at 8.74, a gain of 2.83%. WPRT (18.98 -1.15%) and CLNE (17.28 -1.43%) declined, as did 32 of the 40 on my Natty Gassers list.

WPRT paces that list with a gain of 29.3% in the past two weeks. PQ is up 28.8% and PETD is up 25.1%.

HEAVY METAL
FCX lost 1.82% and FXI dropped 1.17% as copper took a hit. US Steel (X) remained turbulent, losing 2.67% to 44.10. SLV gained nicely (1.38%) to 18.33.

A whole lotta shakin' for whole lotta nothin'

Dow Jones 10,409.46 +4.69 +0.05%
NASDAQ 2,305.93 +0.05 +0.00%
S&P 500 1,114.61 -0.62 -0.06%

I never did get to bed. Napped at the desk and stayed out of this kooky market. Hard to see how or why AAPL has moved so much the past few sessions, but maybe ... well, more on that later.

Not a whole lot to say about today. Most stocks swayed and swirled, but not in a way that got anyone nauseous. Maybe everybody was watching Congress grill BP's Tony Hayward. Or smart traders are enjoying summer vacation.

EURO
FXE was up for much of the session before closing at 122.64 (-0.35%) while UUP (25.10, +0.32%) is slightly up. The Spaniards upped the ante on the Germans, but it was Spain that buckled. EWP (Spain ETF) fell 1.12% to 35.33 and STD dropped 1.79% to 10.99.

FINANCIALS
GS barely finished higher (137.13 +0.17%) while C dropped 0.13% to 3.98. IRE (4.18 -3.02%) and NBG (2.47 -1.59%) pulled back from recent gains. I'm apathetic about this sector. Up, down, up, down ... sometimes because of news. Sometimes because of nothing. It's stupid so I steer clear.

TECH KINGS
AAPL zoomed 2.92% to 267.28, a gain of more than 7 bucks on decent volume. Is there really a difference in Apple since two or three weeks one week ago, when AAPL hovered at 242? Not really. Sure, iPhone G4 demand is huge, but is that really a surprise? Could be that hedge funds and mutuals are piling back in before Q2 ends at the end of this month. That's two weeks away! I'm staying out and waiting for yet another pullback.

GOOG closed up just a hair to 501.34. Much as I like the future for Google, 500 is definitely a psychological barrier. I still prefer GOOG below 490, but I'll buy AAPL before GOOG.

NFLX rose again, nearly 1% to 124.67. CSTR gave up practically all its early gain and closed at 52.51, just .02% higher. The news about the new-release deal with Paramount pushed CSTR shares up to 54.76, but this week's rally turned buyers into sellers by this afternoon. I like CSTR for the time being as a short-term trade. Might get in below 50. Or not.

SAFE PLAYS
GLD closed down a skosh at 120.33, TLT was up a hair to 97.06 ... I hesitate to call copper king FCX a safe play given China's cautious approach to growth. FCX was down just a tiny bit to 67.03 and US Steel (X) dropped 1.31% to 45.33.

ENERGY
BP gained after its chairman and CEO met with Obama. BP closed at 31.85 (+1.43%) on the news that it will suspend its dividend payout and set up a $20 billion fund for Gulf businesses destroyed by the oil "volcano."

The oil sector was up slightly, but it has traded quite well in spite of BP. The inverse ETN for oil, SCO, dropped nearly 2%.

Natural gas started horribly, rallied, and folded by the close. Only 12 of my Nat Gas 40 finished positive today, not too bad considering the rampage the sector had been running since Obama's clean energy speech nearly two weeks ago. MMR finished up 3.75% to 12.44 after leading the group most of the day. KOG, REXX and FTK were also top gainers. Two of my favorites, CLNE and WPRT, finished in the red. CLNE dropped 3.49% to 17.54 and WPRT fell 1.13% to 19.19.

I like WPRT below 19 and had my chance in the morning, but the market was underwater at the time and I decided to play it safe. I like WPRT's balance sheet a lot. Don't really like CLNE's numbers, but as a clean energy play, CLNE is almost as intriguing as WPRT. I'm sure value investors might agree partway on WPRT, probably more so when it was trading at 3 bucks in March of last year. At these levels, it's still reasonably attractive, but I'll be choosy about my price. Haggling is good.

Nat Gas is one of the best sectors to trade and/or follow now that it has an edge of sorts (Obama's verbal backing and nothing more yet) and the world is sick and tired of crude oil's consequences. Whether Nat Gas as a sector is more of a market indicator now than it was last month, well, I wouldn't assume that. I do feel that it truly does give a fingerprint on the market's tone. Natty Gas is a fairly safe play even in the midst of speculation, oversupply and the emotional content of the broad market, i.e. Mother Earth bleeding into the Gulf 24/7.

Even with today's pullback in Nat Gas, five of my 40 are up at least 20% in two weeks, including WPRT (+30.7%). UNG, which was up to 8.83 two days ago, fulfilled my expectations since and closed today at 8.49 (-3.85%). Again, UNG is a buy below 8 and a sell above 8.50, or maybe it's more like a sell at 8.75 now. Higher highs, higher lows and the sector shows no signs of cooling off. I'd guess that Nat Gas will remain hot as long as we can all see that Gulf oil live video.

After that, who knows? I just want to be in the sector's top play rather than bet big on a skittish natty gasser penny when the ice starts to melt.

Climbing a great wall

Impressive. The FXI has behaved rather nicely after diving into full-blown correction territory (a decline of more than 20%). Powerful is too strong a word to describe the bounce, but it's been a respectable response that has clearly helped copper stocks like FCX and even US Steel (X).

Michael Yoshikami is extolling the virtues of tip-toeing into Chinese equities here, with the FXI still in corrective turf (-23% year to date). He touches on the real estate nightmare ahead for China and insists that the problem is being curtailed in advance. I just don't believe any of that just yet, but he has a point.

I have no trouble with the concept of trading Chinese stocks as long as they are liquid and plausibly potent. In other words, I'll trade BIDU but not a Chinese penny stock. If the real estate market there blows up as badly as the mortgage/credit crisis did in the US in 2008-09, uh ohhh ...

The new policy puts a lid on housing speculation, i.e. flipping. So much for the future of late-night real estate informercials in Guandong, Shanghai, Harbin and all points in between. We may be deprived of the next Tom Vu, post-Mao style. (I know he's from Vietnam, but most of the refugees who left in the 1970s were Chinese in ethnic origin.)



Meanwhile, progress continues ...

Stampede Tuesday

Dow Jones 10,404.77 +213.88 (+2.1%)
NASDAQ 2,305.88 +61.92 (+2.76%)
S&P 500 1,115.23 +25.60 (+2.35%)

Huge move today, and though volume is still tepid, it was bigger than yesterday. I'm not a believer in this rally, but there's no point to fighting momentum. Didn't the spring rally continue for months despite lame volume? There's money to be made in both directions.

ENERGY
Nat Gas extremely impressive today, even as BP rallied in the afternoon. Of the 40 natty gassers on my list, 39 finished positive. They averaged a 3.59% gain today, absolutely, undeniably hot. As a group, they have moved up 13.97% since Obama's clean energy speech 12 days ago.

WPRT (19.42), one of my five favorites, moved up 2.29% today — a bit soft compared to the sector — but is now up 32.2% since Obama's talk. Insanely bullish.

GDP (15.29) is up 27.1% during this span, including 4.01% today. KWK (13.81) is up 23.3% since Obama and HERO (3.19) is up 23.17%, including 13.12% today alone. Small floats and daytrading frenzy are factors here, which is why I'll try WPRT rather than HERO.

CLNE (18.17) is up 6.97% today and 22.39% since Obama. WPRT and CLNE are solid fundamentally and both are pure clean energy plays. Another reason to like.

UNG feels safe, but the move from 8 flat to 8.83 in the past week is amazing. UNG now up 17.89% since Obama, including 3.27% today.

BP gained 2.38% to 31.40 and USO is up 2.62% to 35.23. USO down to 34.66 in afterhours trading. SCO, the inverse oil ETN, dropped 4.62% as crude prices rose to $76/barrel.

IPO
CBOE is trading at 32.56 in afterhours, looking like the hottest initial public offering of the year. If Goldman Sachs is propping up the market to support the four IPOs it is unveiling this week, be careful once the propping is done. CBOE's 14% gain is great for the big boys, and they'll cash in while the rest of us think we're walking into a winner.

FINNIES
Speaking of GS, it gained 2.59% to 136.90. That made yesterday's buyers at 133-134 quite happy. C gained 2.84% to 3.99, and Euro banks also gained. STD (11.19 7.08%) has made a great move up since dropping below 10. IRE is up 6.42% to 4.31 and NBG is up 3.29% to 2.51.

FAS tore up 6.88% to 24.04. I still don't trust financials, but the volatility and high-percentage moves are making some fast money for fast traders. I wouldn't short finnies here, either. FAZ lost 6.74% to 14.27. There are numerous stories of an ominous future for finnies. They're not all fiction, no doubt, but as irrational exuberance returns to the market, traders don't care about tomorrow. They're banking on finnies and wild momo swings led by the high-frequency robots.

EURO
FXE (123.07) up almost 1% today while the dollar (UUP) dropped. FXI gained 2.29% to 41.03. Everything's headline-driven. Not my cup of tea, but watching these as indicators.

HEAVY METAL
FCX gained 2.74% to 67.05 and US Steel (X) rose 3.03% to 45.91. Wow. As China goes, so go copper and steel. SLV gained 1.85% to 18.19 for good measure.

NEW TECH
My favorite company, Apple, continues to rebound from last week's plunge to 242. AAPL closed near its high at 259.69, a gain of 2.13%. GOOG rose 3.06% to 497.99. I liked GOOG below 490, but didn't touch it.

NFLX, a wild gainer recently, pared back 2.61% to 123.50.

SAFE PLAYS
GLD climbed 1.16% to 120.99 and TLT dropped 0.41% to 96.51. A massive bull rally and TLT dropped fractionally. That's weird. Probably says something about the cautious nature of retail traders. Nobody wants to get burned by another Flash Crash or any kind of crash.

Can this rally run for two, three months like the previous run? Probably not. A lot of short leashes out there. Fear reigns, even in the bulls. But the shorts are clearly getting hammered lately.

So much for Mutual Fund Monday

Dow Jones 10,190.89 -20.18 -0.20%
NASDAQ 2,243.96 +0.36 +0.02%
S&P 500 1,089.63 -1.97 -0.18%

Back from some work, catching up with today's flop-a-roo action. Bull stampede out the exits. How lame.

I once was a diehard Apple fiend. Even without ownership of an iPod or iPhone, I was and still am a lover of Apple products. Hell yeah!

But ask me if I'd trade AAPL here and I'll tell you, hell no. Today was a prime example. AAPL was up to 258 early and traded down to 254.01 after hours. I'm watching my recorded Fast Money Halftime and they're all bullish about the morning move. Can't blame 'em; Dow was up big. NASDAQ was up bigger on Apple's push.

Things closed badly. Life on thin ice goes that way most times.

METALS
FCX barely held its gain, finishing at 65.26 (+0.51%) while FXI dipped a bit (40.11 -0.40%) and X was down 0.58% to 44.56. SLV flat (+0.06%) at 17.86. This sector was due for a time out, but any time rally leaders hit a pit stop, it's wise to be cautious that it doesn't turn into a complete stall-out.

EURO MADNESS
FXE closed up at 121.89 (+1.09%), a nice gain, but off its intraday high (122.61). UUP down almost 1% to 28.43.

SAFE PLAYS
GLD down fractionally (-0.34%) to 119.60 and TLT down 0.51% to 96.91.

ENERGY
USO up by a hair (+0.29%) to 34.33 and inverse ETN SCO down a skosh (-0.07%) to 14.93. Interesting since BP got chomped by 9.71% down to 30.67. Just when it seemed BP got a nice technical bounce, it may have turned into more of a lower high than a climb back to the mid-30s. BP dropping to the mid-20s?

Natural Gas simply seems so much palatable at this point. My weekly update on the 40 natty gassers on my list was very informative, but I still didn't enter a position in any of them, not even my five favorites. Today's action was interesting. Little more than an hour before the close, 32 of the 40 were in the green. By the bell, only 17 were green and a handful of those were basically break-evens.

MMR continued its astounding rise since Obama's clean energy speech 11 days ago. MMR rose 6.18% today and is now up 13.51% to 11.68 since Obama's declaration. WPRT remained hot, picking up 5.21% to 18.99 and is now up a whopping 29.24% since Obama. This is one of my five faves, being a pure play with a solid balance sheet. It's not the finest of fundamentals, though, so some drastic profit-taking could hit the share price any time. Come on, 29% in less than two weeks ... are you going to be greedy? You can always re-enter after it sells off. I'd sell half and trade that amount for now, and let the rest ride. That's just me.

UNG, the notorious U.N.G., was up 4.65% today to 8.61. Quite nice considering it lagged while the entire sector caught fire last week. Clearly a buy below 8.00 and a sell above 8.50. PETD was up 4.04% to 25.98 and is now up 24.72% since Obama. Also up nicely was PQ, +2.70% to 7.60. PQ now up 22.19% since Obama.

The natty gassers I really like — CLNE (16.99 +0.83%), HGT (21.45 -1.7%), PSE (24.96 -0.64%) and SWN (43.54 -0.84%) — were middling at best today. I'd rather stick with these issues, which have solid balance sheets and little to no debt, than risk the acidic atmosphere of so-so natty gassers that are trading mostly on daytrader momentum (low floats).

FINANCIALS
FAS down 1.43% to 22.49. FAZ up 1.26% to 15.30.

GS dropped 1.62% to 133.44. It's just ugly down there. When financial uber-bull Dick Bove adjusted his estimates lower for GS last week, that was as rock-bottom as it gets. Or does it get worse? C broke even today (3.88), while Euro banks were varied. IRE (4.05 +0.25%), NBG (2.43 +2.53%) and STD (10.45, -0.95%) doing their usual quirky moves. STD has been more steady, bouncing out of the 9-10 range every time. Spain has major unemployment issues, but as a whole seems far more sane than Greece.

Thin ice. Please avoid.

I'm staying 100% cash. Didn't touch VXX after hours. That means it'll probably pop in the AM. Whatever. Take caution. This market is icy hot. Or hot icy. I'll get my sleep, trail at a safe distance and be selective.

Leaders tumbling

FCX is way off its high of the day and is near its low, now 65.74 US Steel (X) is at 44.98, off its high of 46.26. FXI is down fractionally, also near its low.

Is the run done? GLD and SLV also flat. TLT down 0.55%.

Bubblicious NFLX is still up 127.15, up 5.4%, near its high. I like the numbers for Netflix. I just don't see it dominating much longer with digital content and entertainment competition coming up the yin yang sooner rather than later.

Rise and shine

8:13 am and I'm finally up here in the islands. Work beckons in less than an hour, so I'll try and add more natural gas updates. I only got through half or so of the 40 on my list, and that list will probably expand this weekend as I do more homework.

Quick note: the market is flat going into the final two hours, which is no surprise considering yesterday's low volume. Huge move, but it ran on thin ice and it would not shock me to see today's action crumble in the final hour. No reason for big money to commit over the weekend.

Big movers in nat gas today include Flotek (FTK 1.40 +2.9%) and Goodrich Petroleum (GDP 14.81 +4.6%). I really don't like the fundamentals of both, but daytraders are making a killing on both.

Petroleum Development Corp. (PETD) is also up nicely (24.56 +3.3%) and continues is status as one of the top gainers in natural gas since last week's staunch talk by President Obama. PETD's fundamentals aren't horrible — margins, returns and debt ($259 million) are negative but manageable, and it has $277 million in revenues. It's a 18.9 million share float that's key for traders. Stairs up, elevator down.

Westport Innovations Inc. (WPRT), which had some ugly days in the past week, is up huge today (17.62 +3.77%). WPRT is now up 20.7% since Obama's speech. Today's volume in WPRT is average so far and the candlestick is forming what I call an upside-down hammer — a negative indicator. We'll see what the final stretch brings.

Heavy metal: US Steel (X) is up 2.4% to 44.23. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is down 0.34% to 64.14. FXI is up by a hair (40.09 +0.12%). Can X sustain its gain?

Chicken or the egg?

Doesn't matter which came first to the bulls. They're doing the funky chicken dance this morning with the Dow up 212 points (+2.2%, down from its highs, but still...), NAS +40 (+1.9%) and S&P +21 (2.1%).

Futures were juicy going into the opening bell thanks to good news from Spain and China. Lack of bad news in a market that was still oversold after that bear trap/head fake into yesterday's close, and woila: instant hammering of bears and waffling traders. (I'd classify myself as the latter.)

Some of the leaders from yesterday are kicking tail today. FCX (+4.4%, 63.39), X (+3.9%, 42.96), FXI (+2.3%, 40.00). If copper is leading this leg of the rally and China is devouring this orangey metal, along with its positive news this morning, this truly might be the bounce back to bull territory. Even SLV is up slightly.

Financials are doing solid, too, with C (+0.78%, 3.90), IRE (+6.1%, 3.83), STD (+8.3%, 9.74). FAS is up 4.9%. Ka-Powww!

Money has clearly shifted out of safe havens like GLD (-1.1%), TLT (-0.8%), UUP (-0.97%). Tech giants AAPL (+1.5%, 246.96) and (GOOG +2.1%, 483.75) are keeping pace somewhat with the market. BIDU (+3.7%, 69.90) and NFLX (+1.93%, 117.66) are doing nicely, too, but most of the top gainers on my list are two- and three-letter issues — non-NASDAQ plays.

The leader, of course, is BP, now up 12.2% to 32.74 following yesterday's 15% plunge. I don't plan on trading BP ever, but it finally hit rock bottom, no pun intended, and was due for a major bounce.

Bear train caboose

We're in a rut, trading in a somewhat narrow range in lieu of great news and additional horrific news. For now, a small position in VXX is all I have. Except for a one-hour span on Monday (or was it Tuesday?), VXX and AAPL have mirrored each other like a fine tango pair. During that hour, they traded mostly in the same weak direction with little volume. But today, they were definitely at odds with each other again, and this is why I have liked this as a pair/hedge before.

Charts don't pertain to leveraged ETFs like VXX as they do to "normal" stocks, but it's still a useable visual to put things a bit in perspective.

Here's a longer-term look at VXX. Six months in VXX galaxian time is 60,000 years on Planet Earth.

My small position in VXX leaves me in 72% cash, 28% long volatility (VXX).

VXX 6-month chart (daily)

The 3-month chart gives a better look at VXX, as if it actually responds to Bollinger bands. My guess is 99% of VXX traders hold their shares for less than 3 months. More like 3 hours.

VXX 3-month (daily)

VXX 2-day (5-minute bars) vs. AAPL, FCX, TLT, GLD, S&P 500

FCX, a copper king, was a huge gainer early in the day and seemed set to close with strength. But it faded with the rest of the market. Safe havens like GLD and TLT were middling at best, while VXX closed hard and fast. I missed a chance to enter at 30.50 and 30.75 even though I smelled bull wimpishness at mid-day. I'm content, though, to rely more on action and movement rather than hunches.

Candlestick analysis: Again, VXX is not a good read by charts or technical analysis. Still, noteworthy that it's a "Sell If" (American Bulls). Shares are at 31.57 after hours. Often trades down in the next day's premarket from afterhours price, but I may still hold here.

Getting toppy already?

Another awesome night of rest. 6:58 am Hawaii time and the markets are flush with green gold. DJ up 93, Nas +27 and S&P +11 with 3 hours left in today's session. Nas is up 1.26% after lagging yesterday. Yesterday's strong finish was a tell for Nas, but I didn't really care. I slept nice, still 100% cash.

The Nat Gas sector is on fire. My list of 39 has 38 issues in the green. That's quite positive for the time being. BEXP (+6.80%), PQ (+6.62%), KOG (+6.56%) and MMR (+6.19) lead after a couple of down days for the sector. Natural profit-taking before another run, probably.

UNG is the lone red bleeder (-1.59%) at 8.05. It's reverted back to its form in pre-Obama Clean Energy speech times. Huge selling today.

Nat gas is up, but so is oil. USO is up 3.04% despite BP dropping a whopping 8.87%. Much of that, as well as the market's surge up, came on Bernanke's bullish speech. BP trading at 31.75 now.

US Steel rallying again, up 3.5% to 42.79. FCX up 2.05%, though its off its highs. FXI up 1.83% (39.52).

Positive on those fronts, plus financials are up. C (+3.43% to 3.87), GS up fractionally to 138.19 (a steal?) and Spanish conquistador STD is up 2.79% to 9.20. C has been a smart buy below 3.60 for the past year. STD dipped momentarily below 9 today. Both tempt me.

Dollar down (UUP -0.65%, 34.16) and Euro up (FXE +0.65%, 119.91). We may be topping a bit here if the tiny caps are any indication. BBI is up 2.27% to 0.29 and HAUP is +3.30% to 2.19. BBI (Blockbuster Video) is likely going to file for bankruptcy and trades primarily as a lottery ticket. How quickly the market turns stupid again.

Photo: Denise Milani (no website)

Tubby Tuesday

Dow Jones 9.939.98 +123.49 +1.26%
NASDAQ 2,170.57 -3.33 -0.15%
S&P 500 1,062.04 +11.57 +1.10%

Maybe this is bullish, Freeport-McMoran Copper (FCX) up 4.81% to 61.48 today on decent volume (22.4M). Copper? If copper starts moving, that's very interesting. FXI up 2.18% (38.83), clearly one of the indicators, proxies, whatever you want to call it. FXI started rebounding long before the rest of the market was done puking its guts out. If China is bouncing a bit, the risk of missing a move in something like FCX versus averting away from risk completely is a crazy decision for fund managers and traders.

US Steel (X) also up (+2.51%, 41.31) on decent volume (18.0M). A weaker dollar (UUP -0.35%, 25.74) and better Euro (FXE 119.11, -0.26%) helped the S&P and Dow.

Money moved out of GLD (-0.39%) and SLV lost most of its gain to finish at 17.88 (+0.39%). TLT also down (-0.49%) to 98.05.

Nasdaq was down as much as 1% or so before rallying into the close. AAPL fell to 246 before closing at 249.36 (-0.63%). It looked spooky for Apple bulls before huge buying bounced shares off a low of 246.39. Shares later dove lower to 245.65 before more bulls entered.

Overall, this is a market that's turning slightly more positive despite all the outflows of the past month. BP plunged 5.66% to 34.70, but the market has decided to move ahead. BP is on the curb, deserted even by other oil entities. Inverse oil ETNs like SCO (16.06, -3.25%) couldn't stop the sector from rallying again.

Financials also boosted the market. FAS rose to 21.10 (+4.71%) even though GS declined (137.78, -0.65%). C had a nice move up from yesterday's decline and closed at 3.73 (+2.61%).

All this was bad for FAZ (16.55, -4.72%) and VXX (31.13, -3.53%), though VXX had many nice intraday moves for nimble traders.

Today was likely about oversold levels and a lack of bad news. Tomorrow might bring opportunity for techs, which struggled today.