Showing posts with label Germany. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Germany. Show all posts

Friday, May 25, 2012

Sandstorms and saliva (updated 9:46 am)

1:25 am (Hawaii) Traded just once on Thursday (small loss in TVIX, a truly wicked bitch of an ETF), just busy running errands, getting things done. No choice. Had to be done. Trading in a thin market that does nothing but eat its own vomit? Yes, I can take a pass on that even if I'm not running around away from from home.

This morning, CME mafia is lower margin requirements. I haven't kept track much of precious metals for months, so if this is a first this year or last, this might be huge news. Remember when CME kept raising margin requirements awhile back? They did it four times in nine sessions and gold spot price cratered.

So, my conspiracy theorists out there, is this an engineered move to get the market rolling higher?

MarketWatch: CME Group cuts margins for gold futures (May 25)
NY Times: In Spain, bank transfers reflect broader fears (May 25)
CBS News: EU summit ends with lots of uncertainty, few plans (May 24)
Bloomberg: Monti says Germany can be persuaded on euro bonds (May 24)

Update 8:43 am Back in FAZ at 26.91. I bought (impulsively) on a spike from 26.72 to 26.93. Soon as I re-entered, it sold off back to 26.75 or so. My stop loss was in place had it gone lower. Now FAZ is back to 26.91. Volume that spiked in the past 30 minutes. Roughly an hour and a half ago, both FAZ and gold rose and held their gain. Banks selling off and gold rising? Unusual.

AAPL also made a run during that time, from 560 to 563, but gave back all of it and more in short time. AAPL fell to 559+ and is now above 561. Thin market, unpredictable, a lot of games being played.

Not planning to hold FAZ over this three-day weekend. There's always the possibility of some form of compromise out of the euro zone. There's also the possibility of ugliness as tension rises in Greece and Spain.

Update 9:46 am Out of FAZ at 26.93 (+0.02/share) for a break-even trade. It ran a bit to 27.13, but I just raised my stop loss instead of selling for a smallish profit. The market is indecisive as ever going into the close.

Monday, November 21, 2011

FAS vs FAZ

3:16 p.m. I love to yammer on about how the banksters have us all set up. You don't think they've shorted this market? You don't think they even short themselves? Hell yeah they do! They're freaking banksters, remember? All they want is to make profits, nothing else matters. So yeah, you bet your ass they're banking through this downswing, kneecapping every hedge fund and retail trader that went long a week or two ago. They know shit is hitting the fan. So do you and so do I. But do we dive in headfirst?

I liked FAZ at 45. Liked it more at 40. It hit 35 and I was surprised. From there, I really thought the banksters would seize control and send the market into a year-end eruption to new highs. But they actually can't control things in Europe as quickly or smoothly as they can control the Fed and the White House.

So we have FAZ rising to 50 (closing above 49) while FAS fizzles. Where do they go from here? I totally believe in the psychology of round numbers. People are like that. They wince and pucker at certain round numbers and 50 is one of them. I'll watch from the sideline with my binoculars now and then, but it's too busy for me anyway to pay too much attention to the market. Just be cautious out there. Traps are everywhere.

FAZ daily
Today's round of lame news had FAZ roaring higher

FAZ daily
Pushing the higher trendline or gravity kicking in?
Hanging man candle means little with headline risk dominating

FAS daily
Returning to those basement levels again

FAS daily
Generally it's a bad idea to buy anything that has a reverse split.
BAC and FAS come to mind

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Wednesday cinema & library (updated 830 pm HST)




Blogs

(new) Golden Truth: Don't get MF'd by Blackrock (Nov 9)
(new) Golden Truth: Stagflation sets in (Nov 9)
Zero Hedge: Did Merkel just usher in the deutsche mark? (Nov 9)
Reggie Middleton: What's that I heard about squids raising capital because they can't trade? (Nov 9)
Zero Hedge: Italy sparks market bloodbath: financial stocks collapse (Nov 9)
Le Fly: Murderholes (Nov 9)
Scott Bleier: Sometimes there are two sets of facts... (Nov 9)
Turd Ferguson: The Criminal Element, part deux (Nov 9)
Le Fly: Behold: Armageddon (Nov 9)
Cain Thaler: It is now official (Nov 9)
RaginCajun: Not quick enough (Nov 9)
Turd Ferguson: Bancarotta (Nov 9)
Zero Hedge: YTD equity fund outflows hit $112 billion (Nov 9)
Nicholas Pardini: It's not too late to short financials (Nov 9)
David White: Italy's 10-year bond yield passes 7% - another black swan event? (Nov 9)
Reggie Middleton: Italy's woes spell nightmare for NBP - just as I predicted (Nov 9)
SGS: Morning update (Nov 9)
Le Fly: Nuclear option is now on table (Nov 9)
RC Whalen: MF Global, repo-to-maturity and large bank OBS exposures (Nov 9)
Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul: Chinese to bust gold cartel (Nov 8)
(new) Peter Morici: Is Italy next to fall and will gold go to $3,000/oz (Nov 8)
Golden Truth: More on MF Global - it gets worse (Nov 6)

Vlogs
silverfuturist: Silver doesn't blow up when promises fail (Nov 9)
Hit the Bid: Krull to Arms (Nov 9)
James Turk: Guest Markus Kerber (Sept 30)

Audio

FAS vs FAZ

12:36 pm (Hawaii) Getting a lot of work done early in the day now that I'm not obsessing over a schizoid market. Yesterday, Italy's chief announced he would step down under conditional terms and the market zoomed. Today, Italy bonds get out of control (again) and the Dow loses 389 points (3.2%). The action was not gray area at all. AAPL sank 2.7% to 395. Financials were fugly.

BAC -5.2% to 6.19, WFC -5.4%, AIG -6.3%, IRE -6.5%, NBG -6.8%, JPM -7.2%, UBS -7.7%, C -8%, STD -8.2%, GS 8.2%, BBVA -8.3%, MS -8.7%, HBC -9.1%, ETFC -9.4%, JEF -10.4%, RBS -11.1%, DB -11.2%.

FAS shrank 14.8%. FAZ went from 39 yesterday to 43+ today with very little selloff into the close. In fact, after I got up, it dropped below 43 to the mid-42s, then ran up above 43.50. On big volume. If you're like me, you know AAPL leads the retail market, and AAPL's selloff today on large volume with that hanging man candle looks simply horrible.

Technicals do not tell us what's going to happen, and they are the mercy of headline risk. But they do provide a visual into the global monetary chaos, and what a friggin mess.

Below, some charts and that includes TVIX, which was up 37% freaking percent! I remain in the bleachers sipping a hot cocoa, cash under the mattress.

FAZ daily
No matter how much weight the banksters have behind their
punch, they can't find resolution to the toxic assets near and far.

FAZ daily
Major move today on heavy volume but I suspect this stays in a 
range between 36 and 44. A break above 44 would tempt.

FAS daily
The breakout momentum was doused today but volume
was not totally indicative of a definite avalanche.

FAS daily
Big move post-pennant? I should've said moves, as in plural!

DGP daily
Down 1.7% today, which makes no sense considering the
mega-printing of fiat that is due globally. Soon.

AAPL daily
One hell of an ugly candle.  

AAPL daily
The move lower was on significant volume.

UUP daily
Mad US dollar!

TVIX daily
37% in one day? This closed at 46.04 yesterday.

TVIX daily
The Italian-German-French-Greek soap opera continues in 
As The Euro Central Bank Turns. Tomorrow's episode: 
Happy bedroom talk resumes and TVIX loses half of
today's enormous gain. 

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Tuesday cinema & library (updated 530 pm HST)



Blogs
(new) Peter Brandt: What charts say about US stock market (Nov 1)
Turd Ferguson: MFing Global (Nov 1)
Lance Roberts: Fed trapped by inflation, there will be no QE3 tomorrow (Nov 1)
Reggie Middleton: Greco-Franco bank run has skipped pond, landed in NY/Chicago (Nov 1)
Zero Hedge: How US banks are lying about European exposure (Nov 1)
SGS: Carnage update (Nov 1)
Le Fly: Life could be worse (Nov 1)
Jake Gint: Pumpkin head market (Nov 1)
Cain Thaler: I'll take a break from pessimism (Nov 1)
Rajun Cajun: Pullback to the 20-day (Nov 1)
chessnwine: Melting away the coked-up rally (Nov 1)
bigdad06: China moves on water! (Nov 1)
RT: Lauren Lyster (Nov 1)
Gerald Celente: Liberty Plaza, part 3 (Nov 1)
(new) NewAmericaNow: Greece: SHTF imminent (Nov 1)
(new) Christopher Greene: MF Global is next Lehman (Nov 1)
Audio

Mainstream
(new) Business Insider: Europe - What to expect in the next 24 hours (Nov 1)
(new) Business Insider: Fitch joins mass freak-out over Greek referendum (Nov 1)
(new) Business Insider: The sad story of why everyone's angry at Italy (Sept 23)

Trick or Treat?


Turrbul Tuesday?


12:46 am (Hawaii) Some Halloween. I stayed in, hardly any trick or treaters came by and it was couch potato night instead of wild partying. This is what happens when people get old. Late nights and bad traffic and deafening music add up to a non-necessity. But this is interesting: Dow futures are -150, S&P futures are -22.50 and Nasdaq futures are -40.25.

Asia tanked overnight: Nikkei -1.7%, Topix -1.25%, Hang Seng -2.5%. Europe is far worse: Stoxx -3.9%, FTSE -2.5%, Dax -3.8%. So much for Sarkozy and Merkel and all that bullydoodoo talk last Friday. Don't mean squat now. It was all vapor.

I'm all cash so this doesn't hurt or help me. Okay maybe it hurts a little that I didn't pick up some FAZ at 35-36 even though I had HOPED it would fall to 35 when it was hovering at 42-44. I'm just weak that way sometimes. FAZ was 39+ at the closing bell yesterday and 40+ afterhours. I suppose it'll start trading premarket at 42. Still a long way back to 81 and even further to 100. I don't know when that happens. It just will. We could see a retest of 35 this week. All Sarkozy and Merkel have to do is start another ballroom dance to get the markets titillated again.

Thursday, October 27, 2011

FAS vs FAZ

11:32 am (Hawaii) Technical Knockout? Huge volume in both FAS and FAZ. Even with normal profit-taking, FAS is up 17% to 16.45, blasting through that 15.00 level. If the myth/lie can be perpetuated out of Euroland, FAS could rise into the 20s rapidly.

FAZ is barely able to hold above 35, which had been my hope for a new entry point. I'm waiting this out to see how the market reacts. Fuck theory and logic. If hedge funds and mutual funds pour in for Nov and Dec madness, it doesn't matter how smart or clever your theory is about the disintegration of the Fiat monetary system. Not until 2012, anyway.

FAS daily
Completely ripped through megaphone levels
without QE3, unless this Euro Bailout is the same.
15.00 was a possibility, now 25 is in the picture!

FAS daily
The first uptrend lasted 7 days.
The new one barely lasted 7 days, seemed ready
to dip on day 8 (yesterday) and has surged back
to the top of the current level. 

FAS daily
Major volume - short covering? - today.

FAZ daily
42 was the new thin ice. 
Now 35 is in play, new territory.

FAZ daily
Snapback action could be coming, but I'm not
inclined to bet against the banksters yet. 

FAZ daily
Currently below 1-year lows.


FAZ daily
Previous 1-year lows are history now


For a little more fun, a look at SPY.

SPY daily
Basically a clone of FAS daily, if less volatile.

SPY daily
As the EU turns, so does the days of our market.

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Thursday cinema & library (updated Fri 100 am HST)




(new) endlessmountain: Nonsense - Silver, dollar index, TLT bonds (Oct 21)
(new) MoneyBags73: Massive conflicts of interest at Fed (Oct 20)
(new) Jim Comiskey: Daily market insights - metals futures (Oct 20)
(new) Peter Schiff: Listener questions (Oct 20)
RT: Athens chaos: Cop-protester crossfire (Oct 20)
Keiser Report: Live and let fail (Oct 20)
ScrapGoldBusiness: Perth Mint update (Oct 20)
bullorbearreport: The revolution has begun! (Oct 20)

Audio
(new) Peter Schiff Radio (Oct 20)

Mainstream

Eye candy
Street Low: Impala '64 clowning with Desire (Oct 15)


FAS vs FAZ (closing bell edition)

10:18 am (Hawaii) Euro banks down, US banks up. Well, there's NBG up 1.8%, but that's the exception. Of course it's a lot more fun sitting out than riding a whipsaw roller coaster. Flat, all cash. Stay tuned for the resumption of funny business anytime soon.

FAZ daily
Yesterday, it traded between 51.50 and 52.25 in the late hours.
Today, more like 49 and 50. Too spastic for me.

FAS daily
Pushed higher late in the day but the constant heave and ho
make the closing action irrelevant.
More of the same churning until the next
catalyst/Merkel-Sarkosy rumor/downgrade/etc.

Below, the 2-year charts for FAS and FAZ. Clearly, the time decay effect is what makes both more effective as short-term trading vehicles rather than holds. Over the long haul, traders who shorted both were better off than testing the long side, it would seem.

FAS weekly (2 year)
Hate the banksters or not, over the long term,
those bloodsucking pencil pushers show resiliency.
In other words, they find ways to get their way.


FAZ weekly (2 year)
The "easy" money was made in July.

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Wednesday cinema & library (updated 115 am HST)



Update 11:45 am (Hawaii) I urge you to give Scott Bleier's latest post a read: 'The entire rally is bullshit'.
"All the low volume volatility of recent weeks has served to scare the remaining individual investors out of the game. The rest of the market has become dominated and overpowered by the correlation between currencies, commodities, stocks and bonds. The programs work in milliseconds to run over any intra-market movements with instantaneous results. By the time you hear or read the news, the market move is over and you as an investor are forced to chase."
Found in the comments of Bleier's blog: Fed/POMO buying $44 billion in Treasurys this month, up from the usual $14-16 billion.

6:35 am (Hawaii) Started this yesterday, but the eyelids wouldn't stay open, so now it's a Wednesday edition. It's been a relatively quiet week of ups (two tiny profit trades on Monday) and one butchered trade on Tuesday. I got FAS at 12.99 before the bell, it went to 13.08 and I debated whether to sell immediately or put in a trailing stop. While I debated myself, it sank to 13.05, then 12.95, then to 12.60. I got out at 12.68 for a small loss. Again, it's not wise to enter late and wing it. Always have a stop in the final minutes of the session especially after the machines have taken anything more than 5% or 10% higher.

It was due for a major selloff and I screwed up. Protect protect protect.

Blogs

(new) RajunCajun: Not feeling it (Oct 19)
(new) Le Fly: Mandatory listening (Oct 19)
Scott Bleier: The entire rally is bullshit (Oct 19)
Le Fly: Zero reasons to be long (Oct 19)
Zero Hedge: Now Bundestag demands a say (Oct 19)
Turd Ferguson: Beyond the pale (Oct 19)
Turd Ferguson: Silver bull market of 2012 (Oct 18)
Chris Duane (Silver Shield): Great minds think alike? (Oct 18)

Vlogs

ScrapGoldBusiness: Is JP Morgan ready to crash silver again? (Oct 19)
endlessmountain: Silver Log - Midweek report (Oct 19)
Christopher Greene: I am extremely concerned (Oct 19)
Casey Research: Guest Rick Rule (Oct 19)
Casey Research: Guest Eric Sprott (Oct 19)
Chris Garcia: Gold and silver news (Oct 18)
Keiser Report: Live by fraud, die by fraud (Oct 18)
silverfuturist: Silver to peak 2017-20? (Oct 16)

Audio
Peter Schiff: Guest Sen. Rand Paul (Oct 19)
Chris Martenson: Guest Nate Hagens (Oct 19)

Mainstream
(video) Press TV: Max Keiser: 'US bankers stole billions' (Oct 19)
(video) Euronews: EU probes interbank lending rates (Oct 19)

Eye candy
Street Low: Carnales Unidos Car Show (Oct 19)

Thursday, October 6, 2011

Thursday cinema & library (updated 1000 pm HST)

Federal Reserve

Blogs
Zero Hedge: BBC does it again (Oct 6)
Le Fly: Enter decadence (Oct 6)
Le Fly: This is madness (Oct 6)
Scott Bleier: Hope lives! (Oct 6)
Rajun Cajun: The Russell paints the picture (Oct 6)
madhedgefundtrader: Why I tripled my volatitlity index short (Oct 6)
Le Fly: Ignoring warnings (Oct 6)
Le Fly: Rally will continue until pain threshold is met (Oct 6)
Zero Hedge: France, Germany fail to reach agreement (Oct 6)
Turd Ferguson: Ready for more BLSBS? (Oct 6)
Turd Ferguson: Disconnect (Oct 5)

Vlogs
(new) bullorbearreport: Silver +10% in 2 days! Good buy point (Oct 6)
(new) BrotherJohnF: Silver Update - Buy the dips (Oct 6)
Reggie Middleton: BoomBustBlog Occupy Wall St documentary (Oct 6)
endlessmountain: Rant - Using charts for buy/sell points (Oct 6)
endlessmountain: Silver Log (Oct 6)
jackieochannel: Occupy Wall St media zombies (Oct 6)
Keiser Report: Debts and slavery (Oct 5)

Audio
Progressive Radio News Hour: Guest Gerald Celente (Oct 6)
Kerry Lutz: Guest Barry Stuppler (Oct 6)
Chris Martenson: Guest David Stockman (Oct 6)

Mainstream


(video) CNBC: The jobs report trade (Doug Kass) (Oct 6)


Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Wednesday cinema & library

A Visionary for our time
A Visionary for all time
Rest in peace, Steve

Steve Jobs
MarketWatch: Apple's Steve Jobs dies at 56 (Oct 5)

Blogs
Zero Hedge: Le Figaro discloses France has prepared an emergency nationalization plan for 2 or 3 banks (Oct 5)
Golden Truth: 'New price' (Oct 5)
Dan Norcini: Gold still stuck in a range (Oct 5)
Street Insider: Don't worry, if you're rich you won't pay Bank of America a debit card fee (Oct 5)
SGS: Dear James Gorman (CEO of Morgan Stanley) (Oct 5)
Turd Ferguson: Three things to consider (Oct 5)
JS Kim/Zero Hedge: Utah Monetary Declaration of freedom (Oct 5)
Reggie Middleton: Sliced Apple margins for dinner? (Oct 5)
Zero Hedge: Friday's NFP will be disappointment (Oct 5)
SGS: Am I in 2008 Lehman days? (Oct 4)
Charles Hugh Smith: Heresy and the US Dollar (Oct 4)

Vlogs
Keiser Report: Occupy Keiser Report! (Oct 5)
manoftruth: Roseanne Barr on Alex Jones Show (Oct 5)
ScrapGoldBusiness: $25 paper silver coming soon? (Oct 5)
Hit the Bid: Krull to arms, it's coming (Oct 5)

Thursday, September 29, 2011

Greek party mode


10:12 am (Hawaii) Regular watch list 49% up, 50% down, 1% neutral. Apple -1.5% to 390+. Former high flyers are down. YOKU -18.3%. NFLX -11.2%. BIDU -9.2%. SINA -9.2%. Top gainers in the Regular list: FAS +7.6%, AGQ +7%, UCO +4.6%, PSLV +4.2%, BBEP +4%, C +3.8%, GNK 3.6%, SLV +3.4%, X +2.8%, SWY +2.8%, GE +2.6%.

US Steel? This smells like a dead cat bounce.

FAZ at 60.37 afterhours, touching the lower line of its near-term pennant. Still right about in the center of its megaphone longer term. 

FAZ (daily) filling the near-term pennant, soon to go ... where? 

The Debt Spiral list was all green except for FAZ: SCGLY +9.8%, FAS +7.4%, MS +6.6%, DB +6.5%, STD +6.3%, BBVA +6%, RBS +4.8%, IRE +4.8%, C +3.9%, BAC +3.7%, GS +3.7%, JPM +3%, HBC +2.5%, NBG +1.5%, AIG +0.8%. All of Euroland is ecstatic that the party isn't over yet. 

Was this actually the day to go long financials? Could be in the near term. But I think this is a champagne, pop-the-cork moment for finnies. Temporary. A lot of getting drunk, patting backs and double kiss on the cheek hellos. It won't last. Real money has to come from somewhere real, and printing fake money (fiat) isn't going to cut it for much longer. Real production? Not in the US or Euroland. The puppeteers sent jobs elsewhere. 

Today's German parliament vote was a measure to delay the inevitable. Will the people of Germany vote out these politicians who have put the people's savings on the chopping block? Is it their duty to save dysfunctional neighbors? 

FAZ now at 59.94 (10:36 am HST), running with momentum to the downside, opposite of yesterday's afterhours trading. I know what I did wrong yesterday (not selling most/all of the position into strength above 65). I know what I did wrong today (not selling most/all of the position into strength above 65). Taking the belief and logic, not just emotion, out of trading is difficult. Boil it down to basic elements, and it's about price. Sell above 65, buy below 60. Or wait for a bargain at 55 or lower.

New mantra: Less chatter, more price discipline. 

Set your bets and go to sleep? (updated 1010 am HST)


8:16 am (Hawaii) Not so long ago I got a handful of FAZ at 60.53. Not the optimum price like 55 or 53, but it suited me okay. That was at the end of Tuesday. Today, right now, FAZ is at 64.92. Had I done a Rip Van Winkle, slept through all this political economic hoohaa, I'd wake up and be pleasantly surprised with a gain of more than 4 bucks a share. Instead, I sawed away and gave away what would've been a profit yesterday. Only in the past hour am I back to break-even on the latest position.

For now, predators are feasting on imbeciles, and the carnage is just beginning. Nothing's free and if you can't protect it, you get eaten. Can't help that it's just a little funny to watch sometimes.

Update 9:02 am Did anyone see that move in the minutes before the final hour began. That was 8:55 to 9:00 here. Dow rallied as if there was going to be some mad upswing, got up to +13. Yesterday, there was a distinct move at the top of the hour. Today, 9:00 arrived and the Dow started tanking. It's 9:04 am now and the Dow is now -38. I have no idea where it finishes in 56 minutes. But that looked like a trap for the traders who might be playing a move right at that 9:00 tick.

Update 9:12 am FAZ went from 64 to 65 in a hurry, now 65.36. I'm now in the living room, TV is on (mute) and I'm watching the daily chart only. As long as I line it up with my megaphone and pennant patterns, I'm not switching over to the 1-minute. Otherwise I'd have to draw it all over again. That's one odd way of implementing self-discipline.


As I type, a major battle between bulls and bears is in place. Le Fly is right, despite the relatively up or flat numbers today, so many stocks have been forked that it looks very much like an avalanche is not far away. In the past few minutes, the Dow has gone from about -35 to +15 or so, then back to -35. Wild swings and battles in the trenches.

Update 9:37 am How horrendo. I watched as FAZ rallied to 65.41 and I was in the green by 1.30 or so. Then the indices rallied and FAZ went down, down, down. I had to get out or get piled over in an avalanche due to the nature of 3x short ETFs. If the algos go bullish, get out of the way. I exited the position at 62.20 62.26. FAZ is now at 61.86. It went from a winning trade to a loser in what felt like seconds. If this was going on at mid-day, it's a different decision. In this final 30 minutes, I can't take that kind of chance, the odds stacked against me. Should've sold most or all of the position above 65. Absolutely unpredictable.

The only good thing is that FAZ rallied off today's low, saving me $3/share. Scaling out is going to be a necessity from now out. The market may be wrong. Being right doesn't mean making a profit.


Update 9:55 am It's less about the hows and whys. It's about price. The ancient adage, "Buy low, sell high." It made no sense for the market to rally in the last 30 minutes after going back and forth for hours. If anything, the algo machines sensed that peon traders (me) were leaning one way, and the machines went the other way, raking in profits all the way up. I'm not saying the German vote in favor of a Greek bailout wasn't going to boost the market. But for the market to go from indecisive to straight-up-and-away without any catalyst is just the new norm. 

FAZ is at 60.37 in afterhours trading. From here, does the market go blindly into melt-up mode for the near term? I tend to think so. That'll lead to higher gold and silver price, which I like.

FAZ at 65 was a very so-so entry point. FAZ at 60 a little better. At 55, 50, 45, far better. It's probably coming. And as Greece and other Euro party states get closer to default in the coming months, FAZ will return to 65, 73, 81. 100 will come, too. Just not today. 

Tomorrow? Will Sept 30 be a one-day free-for-all window-dressing blastoff? Maybe.