In the U.S., we rely on computers for our Internet needs. In China, it's all about net access on cellphones. The best is yet to come.
Showing posts with label chl. Show all posts
Showing posts with label chl. Show all posts
Sunday, April 27, 2008
#11 China Mobile
I sure didn't like the way the stock tanked in recent months, but I think there's no way to dislodge CHL as the monster of all cellphone companies.
In the U.S., we rely on computers for our Internet needs. In China, it's all about net access on cellphones. The best is yet to come.
In the U.S., we rely on computers for our Internet needs. In China, it's all about net access on cellphones. The best is yet to come.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Top 25: #6 China Mobile
Like a lot of Chinese stocks, CHL is staying put for now. Consolidation? Not cheap here, but not too pricey. Wireless in China will work. Cellphones are the way Chinese get online more than any other vehicle.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Top 25: #6 China Mobile
Am I gonna say CHL is a cheap buy right now? No way. Who knows what happens next with Chinese stocks? I just know China Mobile is emperor of wireless there, and they use their cellphones to access the web the way we use computers.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Top 25: #4 China Mobile
CHL 75.52 +1.60 (+2.2%)
50-day SMA: 84.96 | 100-day SMA: 85.17 | 200-day SMA: 68.81
China Mobile, like McDonald's, is here to stay. Just because we don't see it doesn't mean there aren't billions of customers in the Middle Kingdom. Relatively safe, still growing, and beaten-down cheap below its 100-day SMA.
50-day SMA: 84.96 | 100-day SMA: 85.17 | 200-day SMA: 68.81
China Mobile, like McDonald's, is here to stay. Just because we don't see it doesn't mean there aren't billions of customers in the Middle Kingdom. Relatively safe, still growing, and beaten-down cheap below its 100-day SMA.
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
Pupule portfolio
The market is beyond ridiculous now. Bear market? Or just a sharp correction? Whatever the case, here are more additions to the faux portfolio.
AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
AAPL | in at 177.64 (11 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
AAPL | in at 171.25 (18 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 344.31 (6 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
BIDU | in at 344.31 (6 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
BIDU | in at 345.21 (9 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
CEO | in 167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
CEO | in 167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
CHL | in at 84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
CHL | in at 85.22 (47 shares) | 40% of position | 1/7/08
CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
CHL | in at 85.22 (47 shares) | 40% of position | 1/7/08
CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 123.98 (16 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
CMG | in at 123.98 (16 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
CMG | in at 117.87 (25 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
EBAY | in at 32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at 30.44 (131 shares) 40% of position | 1/7/08
EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at 30.44 (131 shares) 40% of position | 1/7/08
FLS | in at 90.50 (11 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08
FLS | in at 90.45 (22 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08
FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 56.14 (36 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
FMCN | in at 56.14 (36 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
FMCN | in at 56.20 (54 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
FWLT | in at 149.94 (7 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08
FWLT | in at 143.49 (14 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08
GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 649.25 (3 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
GOOG | in at 649.25 (3 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
GOOG | in at 631.68 (5 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
GS | in 214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
ISRG | in at 299.98 (7 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
ISRG | in at 299.98 (7 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
ISRG | in at 271.73 (11 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
LFC | in 80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
LULU | in at 38.45 (52 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
LULU | in at 38.45 (52 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
LULU | in at 36.93 (81 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 58.03 (52 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 58.03 (52 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
MCD | in at 57.08 (70 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08
MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.61 (58 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
MSFT | in at 34.61 (58 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
MSFT | in at 33.45 (90 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 62.11 (48 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 62.11 (48 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
NKE | in at 61.83 (65 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08
NTDOY.PK | in at 67.00 (15 shares) | 10% of position | 1/8/08
PTR | in 181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
RIMM | in at 99.83 (20 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
RIMM | in at 99.83 (20 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
RIMM | in at 96.44 (31 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 72.99 (41 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 72.99 (41 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
VMW | in at 74.50 (53 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08
Sunday, January 6, 2008
Pupule portfolio
Includes new additions to the faux portfolio
AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CEO | in $167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
CHL | in at $84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at $32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GS | in $214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
LFC | in $80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
PTR | in $181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CEO | in $167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
CHL | in at $84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at $32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GS | in $214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
LFC | in $80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
PTR | in $181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
Pupule portfolio
Friday, Jan. 4 additions to the faux portfolio
AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
Friday, January 4, 2008
Ins and Outs
Jon Najarian says the Fed must act, but even if the Fed were to slash rates, wouldn't they take their sweet ol' time as usual? That's why papertrading is no substitute for the real deal. With my Ins and Outs of the Top 25, it's easy to say, 'Yup, dive in on the cheap stocks today.' It's tempting only in real life. On paper, easily done. AAPL at 180? Deal. RIMM at 103? In.
Worst-case scenario: Fed refuses to act until its end-of-January meeting (if it acts) and the market crashes. Best-case scenario: Fed makes a bold move, earnings reports (which begin on Monday) are more bullish than expected. Market rises.
How bearish has the market become? Last week, only eight of my Top 25 were below their 50-day simple moving averages. yesterday, the number increased to 12. Today? Eighteen. Those of us in cash will reign.
1. AAPL 180.05 -14.88 (-7.6%) | 50-day SMA: 183.26 | 100-day SMA: 164.98
Big money got out of the big growth stocks today. AAPL is below its 50-day SMA for the first time since mid-November. Volume was the biggest since that period, too. MacWorld is around the corner. Inch in.
2. GOOG 657.00 -28.33 (-4.1%) | 50-day SMA: 684.78 | 100-day SMA: 621.23
Interesting price point here. Inch in is fine with an eye on a dip to the 100-day SMA (621). If GOOG falls through 621, it's a horror film in real life.
3. RIMM 103.35 -9.47 (-8.4%) | 50-day SMA: 112.82 | 100-day SMA: 103.10
Unlike AAPL and GOOG, volume in RIMM today wasn't as extreme. That doesn't give RIMM long any semblance of comfort. How can RIMM fall below its pre-earnings price? RIMM blitzed estimate and raised guidance. The patient will be rewarded. When the market recovers, RIMM will be among the rally leaders. Price is nice here to start inching in.
4. ISRG 305.00 -16.75 (-5.2%) | 50-day SMA: 313.95 | 100-day SMA: 271.47
Amazing. ISRG was so far above its moving averages just days ago, and now it's below its 50-day SMA. Inch in, though I think it may pull back to 275 if the Fed does nothing.
5. NTDOY.PK n/a
6. POT 142.65 -4.23 (-2.9%) | 50-day SMA: 123.57
Potash is almost immune to market turbulence and it's not the only fertilizer stock rocking the free world. Too pricey still.
7. CHL 83.88 -1.56 (-1.8%) | 50-day SMA: 89.83 | 100-day SMA: 81.82
Bears are in charge of this great stock. Four of the last six sessions have been down for China Mobile, and those four trading days had big volume compared to the up sessions. I'd continue to inch in here with an eye on 80 as a key support level.
8. PTR 176.00 +5.36 (+3.1%) | 50-day SMA: 199.40 | 100-day SMA: 184.71 | 200-day SMA: 157.72
PetroChina was due for a rally, and with crude oil hovering near $100/barrel, why not now? I started inching into PTR in the Pupule portfolio recently and will continue to do so at these levels. The world will always need oil. China needs oil. OK, maybe alternative energy becomes substantial within five years. That's plenty of time for PTR to run.
9. FSLR 245.58 -20.29 (-7.6%) | 50-day SMA: 215.47 | 100-day SMA: 163.93
Finally, a gap down, and yet, First Solar is miles from any kind of a fair price. Wait.
10. MCD 57.05 -0.88 (-1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 58.61 | 100-day SMA: 55.15
A pullback like this in McDonald's is absolutely stupid. Now 11% down from its recent high, MCD is still selling a ton of latte, a ton of snack wraps (kids love 'em) and basically stealing customers from Starbucks. (A Mickey D and Starbucks were built next to each other recently in Honolulu. Guess which one is always packed and which one is half-empty?) The "Dollar Menu" at McDonald's is BUILT for recessions. Certainly worth inching in here.
11. STP 81.84 -6.38 (-7.2%) | 50-day SMA: 71.64
Buy here? Fuggedaboudit. Today's pullback is a speck of dust compared to this insane run from 45. Wait.
12. CMG 127.01 -14.69 (-10.4%) | 50-day SMA: 135.77 | 100-day SMA: 124.02
Chipotle Mexican Grill is getting cheaper and cheaper. This is a nice price to inch in, but will consumers opt to buy fast, healthy Mexican food rather than the dollar menu at Mickey D's?
13. BIDU 361.00 -14.09 (-3.7%) | 50-day SMA: 367.50 | 100-day SMA: 313.93
After five down days in a row, Baidu is worth inching in here. Still easily capable of falling to support level at 300.
14. FWLT 159.69 -9.48 (-5.6%) | 50-day SMA: 150.46
Recession proof? Possibly. But this price is still too high.
15. FLS 93.20 -2.95 (-3.1%) | 50-day SMA: 91.71
Another stock that thrives in global growth, but pricey here. Wait.
16. FMCN 55.71 -3.27 (-5.5%) | 50-day SMA: 57.00 | 100-day SMA: 52.83
Down big on moderate volume, worth inching in here.
17. GS 199.93 -4.91 (-2.4%) | 50-day SMA: 218.79 | 100-day SMA: 209.50 | 200-day SMA: 212.21
Goldman Sachs is king and emperor of the financials, the Godfather of Greenbacks. And yet, the stock is on thin ice right here; 200 is a key support level. If GS falls through, next stop is 180, and then 160. Inching in is a good idea, but don't dive head first.
18. NKE 61.74 -0.97 (-1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 64.06 | 100-day SMA: 60.86
Fair price, almost good. Six down days in a row, but I like the growing international exposure (China) and commitment.
19. CEO 170.50 +0.66 (+0.4%) | 50-day SMA: 176.57 | 100-day SMA: 159.95
Like PetroChina, CNOOC Ltd. is a state-owned entity in the Middle Kingdom. I missed the boat on CEO twice: once at 91, later at 111. With the latter, the P/E was only 12. Then it ran to 215. Here, CEO is still a fair price, but I'd inch in only. The stock has run up with increasing volume for two days and could be due for a pullback.
20. VMW 80.49 -3.46 (-4.1%) | 50-day SMA: 94.54 | 100-day SMA: 87.04
Dead money for a few weeks now unless you're a short. Nice price for a near-term trade, though. Inching in for the Pupule portfolio with an eye on support at 71.
21. LULU 40.54 -4.22 (-9.4%) | 50-day SMA: 43.95 | 100-day SMA: 42.03
Today's hellacious jobs report casts a bad omen for retailers. Pricey yoga pants ($100/pair) aren't a big priority if and when we head into a recession. But I do think that lululemon athletica's core customers are not affected by layoffs in the financial and homebuilding sectors. LULU's customers will continue to work out, and they will show off the results by purchasing lululemon pants. Women 18-35 will keep on keepin' on. They will keep spending. It's the vanity factor. It works well.
22. MSFT 34.38 -0.99 (-2.8%) | 50-day SMA: 34.65 | 100-day SMA: 31.86
The Halo effect is done. What drives Mister Softee from here? As Sgt. Schultz often said, "I see nothing!" Scaling in here for a near-term trade on the Pupule portfolio.
23. AMZN 88.79 -6.42 (-6.7%) | 50-day SMA: 87.82 | 100-day SMA: 87.19
Another stock, like RIMM, that will lead a market rally if the Fed cuts. Amazon bluntly told the world that unlike other struggling online retailers, its sales were quite fine, thank you. Price is better, but not quite good yet. Wait.
24. EBAY 31.30 -1.54 (-4.7%) | 50-day SMA: 33.51 | 100-day SMA: 35.19 | 200-day SMA: 34.20
If the country is heading for a recession, it will be the eBays of the world that will benefit. Still, the stock took a hit today. Inching in on the Pupule portfolio.
25. LFC 73.00 -1.64 (-2.2%) | 50-day SMA: 83.99 | 100-day SMA: 81.68 | 200-day SMA: 66.44
Does anyone really think life insurance won't work in China? This is a land, as I've mentioned before, where ancestor worship was once the rule. As the middle-agers accumulate wealth, they will put their hard-earned money into life insurance while the younger generation plays the stock market.
On the cusp: Taking a close look this weekend at Costco and Altria as additions to the Top 25.
Worst-case scenario: Fed refuses to act until its end-of-January meeting (if it acts) and the market crashes. Best-case scenario: Fed makes a bold move, earnings reports (which begin on Monday) are more bullish than expected. Market rises.
How bearish has the market become? Last week, only eight of my Top 25 were below their 50-day simple moving averages. yesterday, the number increased to 12. Today? Eighteen. Those of us in cash will reign.
1. AAPL 180.05 -14.88 (-7.6%) | 50-day SMA: 183.26 | 100-day SMA: 164.98
Big money got out of the big growth stocks today. AAPL is below its 50-day SMA for the first time since mid-November. Volume was the biggest since that period, too. MacWorld is around the corner. Inch in.
2. GOOG 657.00 -28.33 (-4.1%) | 50-day SMA: 684.78 | 100-day SMA: 621.23
Interesting price point here. Inch in is fine with an eye on a dip to the 100-day SMA (621). If GOOG falls through 621, it's a horror film in real life.
3. RIMM 103.35 -9.47 (-8.4%) | 50-day SMA: 112.82 | 100-day SMA: 103.10
Unlike AAPL and GOOG, volume in RIMM today wasn't as extreme. That doesn't give RIMM long any semblance of comfort. How can RIMM fall below its pre-earnings price? RIMM blitzed estimate and raised guidance. The patient will be rewarded. When the market recovers, RIMM will be among the rally leaders. Price is nice here to start inching in.
4. ISRG 305.00 -16.75 (-5.2%) | 50-day SMA: 313.95 | 100-day SMA: 271.47
Amazing. ISRG was so far above its moving averages just days ago, and now it's below its 50-day SMA. Inch in, though I think it may pull back to 275 if the Fed does nothing.
5. NTDOY.PK n/a
6. POT 142.65 -4.23 (-2.9%) | 50-day SMA: 123.57
Potash is almost immune to market turbulence and it's not the only fertilizer stock rocking the free world. Too pricey still.
7. CHL 83.88 -1.56 (-1.8%) | 50-day SMA: 89.83 | 100-day SMA: 81.82
Bears are in charge of this great stock. Four of the last six sessions have been down for China Mobile, and those four trading days had big volume compared to the up sessions. I'd continue to inch in here with an eye on 80 as a key support level.
8. PTR 176.00 +5.36 (+3.1%) | 50-day SMA: 199.40 | 100-day SMA: 184.71 | 200-day SMA: 157.72
PetroChina was due for a rally, and with crude oil hovering near $100/barrel, why not now? I started inching into PTR in the Pupule portfolio recently and will continue to do so at these levels. The world will always need oil. China needs oil. OK, maybe alternative energy becomes substantial within five years. That's plenty of time for PTR to run.
9. FSLR 245.58 -20.29 (-7.6%) | 50-day SMA: 215.47 | 100-day SMA: 163.93
Finally, a gap down, and yet, First Solar is miles from any kind of a fair price. Wait.
10. MCD 57.05 -0.88 (-1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 58.61 | 100-day SMA: 55.15
A pullback like this in McDonald's is absolutely stupid. Now 11% down from its recent high, MCD is still selling a ton of latte, a ton of snack wraps (kids love 'em) and basically stealing customers from Starbucks. (A Mickey D and Starbucks were built next to each other recently in Honolulu. Guess which one is always packed and which one is half-empty?) The "Dollar Menu" at McDonald's is BUILT for recessions. Certainly worth inching in here.
11. STP 81.84 -6.38 (-7.2%) | 50-day SMA: 71.64
Buy here? Fuggedaboudit. Today's pullback is a speck of dust compared to this insane run from 45. Wait.
12. CMG 127.01 -14.69 (-10.4%) | 50-day SMA: 135.77 | 100-day SMA: 124.02
Chipotle Mexican Grill is getting cheaper and cheaper. This is a nice price to inch in, but will consumers opt to buy fast, healthy Mexican food rather than the dollar menu at Mickey D's?
13. BIDU 361.00 -14.09 (-3.7%) | 50-day SMA: 367.50 | 100-day SMA: 313.93
After five down days in a row, Baidu is worth inching in here. Still easily capable of falling to support level at 300.
14. FWLT 159.69 -9.48 (-5.6%) | 50-day SMA: 150.46
Recession proof? Possibly. But this price is still too high.
15. FLS 93.20 -2.95 (-3.1%) | 50-day SMA: 91.71
Another stock that thrives in global growth, but pricey here. Wait.
16. FMCN 55.71 -3.27 (-5.5%) | 50-day SMA: 57.00 | 100-day SMA: 52.83
Down big on moderate volume, worth inching in here.
17. GS 199.93 -4.91 (-2.4%) | 50-day SMA: 218.79 | 100-day SMA: 209.50 | 200-day SMA: 212.21
Goldman Sachs is king and emperor of the financials, the Godfather of Greenbacks. And yet, the stock is on thin ice right here; 200 is a key support level. If GS falls through, next stop is 180, and then 160. Inching in is a good idea, but don't dive head first.
18. NKE 61.74 -0.97 (-1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 64.06 | 100-day SMA: 60.86
Fair price, almost good. Six down days in a row, but I like the growing international exposure (China) and commitment.
19. CEO 170.50 +0.66 (+0.4%) | 50-day SMA: 176.57 | 100-day SMA: 159.95
Like PetroChina, CNOOC Ltd. is a state-owned entity in the Middle Kingdom. I missed the boat on CEO twice: once at 91, later at 111. With the latter, the P/E was only 12. Then it ran to 215. Here, CEO is still a fair price, but I'd inch in only. The stock has run up with increasing volume for two days and could be due for a pullback.
20. VMW 80.49 -3.46 (-4.1%) | 50-day SMA: 94.54 | 100-day SMA: 87.04
Dead money for a few weeks now unless you're a short. Nice price for a near-term trade, though. Inching in for the Pupule portfolio with an eye on support at 71.
21. LULU 40.54 -4.22 (-9.4%) | 50-day SMA: 43.95 | 100-day SMA: 42.03
Today's hellacious jobs report casts a bad omen for retailers. Pricey yoga pants ($100/pair) aren't a big priority if and when we head into a recession. But I do think that lululemon athletica's core customers are not affected by layoffs in the financial and homebuilding sectors. LULU's customers will continue to work out, and they will show off the results by purchasing lululemon pants. Women 18-35 will keep on keepin' on. They will keep spending. It's the vanity factor. It works well.
22. MSFT 34.38 -0.99 (-2.8%) | 50-day SMA: 34.65 | 100-day SMA: 31.86
The Halo effect is done. What drives Mister Softee from here? As Sgt. Schultz often said, "I see nothing!" Scaling in here for a near-term trade on the Pupule portfolio.
23. AMZN 88.79 -6.42 (-6.7%) | 50-day SMA: 87.82 | 100-day SMA: 87.19
Another stock, like RIMM, that will lead a market rally if the Fed cuts. Amazon bluntly told the world that unlike other struggling online retailers, its sales were quite fine, thank you. Price is better, but not quite good yet. Wait.
24. EBAY 31.30 -1.54 (-4.7%) | 50-day SMA: 33.51 | 100-day SMA: 35.19 | 200-day SMA: 34.20
If the country is heading for a recession, it will be the eBays of the world that will benefit. Still, the stock took a hit today. Inching in on the Pupule portfolio.
25. LFC 73.00 -1.64 (-2.2%) | 50-day SMA: 83.99 | 100-day SMA: 81.68 | 200-day SMA: 66.44
Does anyone really think life insurance won't work in China? This is a land, as I've mentioned before, where ancestor worship was once the rule. As the middle-agers accumulate wealth, they will put their hard-earned money into life insurance while the younger generation plays the stock market.
On the cusp: Taking a close look this weekend at Costco and Altria as additions to the Top 25.
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Pupule portfolio
The faux portfolio moves on. Began inching into MCD, VMW, NKE today. Each with a 10% position (pyramiding). Added more CHL and EBAY (each 20% of position).
Weighted scale of $10,000 per stock
PTR • in $181.72 (55 shares) • 100% of position • 12/24/07
GS • in $214.32 (47 shares) • 100% of position • 12/24/07
CEO • in $167.22 (60 shares) • 100% of position • 12/24/07
LFC • in $80.70 (124 shares) • 100% of position • 12/24/07
CHL • in at $84.65 (12 shares) • 10% of position • 1/2/08
CHL • in at 85.44 (23 shares) • 20% of position • 1/3/08
EBAY • in at $32.49 (30 shares) • 10% of position • 1/2/08
EBAY • in at 32.84 (61 shares) • 20% of position • 1/3/08
MCD • in at 57.93 (17 shares) • 10% of position • 1/3/08
NKE • in at 62.71 (16 shares) • 10% of position • 1/3/08
VMW • in at 83.95 (12 shares) • 10% of position • 1/3/08
I should have remembered to pyramid into PTR, GS, CEO and LFC as they've all declined since Dec. 24. Great stocks cheap. Three important words.
Weighted scale of $10,000 per stock
PTR • in $181.72 (55 shares) • 100% of position • 12/24/07
GS • in $214.32 (47 shares) • 100% of position • 12/24/07
CEO • in $167.22 (60 shares) • 100% of position • 12/24/07
LFC • in $80.70 (124 shares) • 100% of position • 12/24/07
CHL • in at $84.65 (12 shares) • 10% of position • 1/2/08
CHL • in at 85.44 (23 shares) • 20% of position • 1/3/08
EBAY • in at $32.49 (30 shares) • 10% of position • 1/2/08
EBAY • in at 32.84 (61 shares) • 20% of position • 1/3/08
MCD • in at 57.93 (17 shares) • 10% of position • 1/3/08
NKE • in at 62.71 (16 shares) • 10% of position • 1/3/08
VMW • in at 83.95 (12 shares) • 10% of position • 1/3/08
I should have remembered to pyramid into PTR, GS, CEO and LFC as they've all declined since Dec. 24. Great stocks cheap. Three important words.
Ins and Outs
Well, well. There are now 12 stocks among my Top 25 that are trading below their simple moving averages. (One is very, very close.) Yesterday, only nine were on the radar.
Buys? Not necessarily. But worth exploring.
1. AAPL 194.93 • 50-day SMA: 183.39 • Wait
2. GOOG 685.53 • 50-day SMA: 685.16 • Up just 14¢ on lower volume. Wait
3. RIMM 112.82 • 50-day SMA: 113.25 • Fair price, but mediocre volume says this is dead money near term
4. ISRG 321.75 • 50-day SMA: 313.94 • Wait
5. NTDOY.PK 74.55 • 50-day SMA: n/a • Recent 50-day was 73.13. Wait
6. POT 146.88 • 50-day SMA: 122.90 • Wait. It may take almost forever, but wait
7. CHL 85.44 • 50-day SMA: 90.13 • 100-day SMA: 81.52 • Up 79¢ on lower volume. Good price. Inch in and expect a better price
8. PTR 170.64 • 50-day SMA: 201.02 • 100-day SMA: 184.28 • 200-day SMA: 157.38 • Plunging on low volume. Great price. Inch in
9. FSLR 265.87 • 50-day SMA: 213.56 • Wait
10. MCD 57.93 • 50-day SMA: 58.58 • 100-day SMA: 55.05 • Fair price, great earnings, inch in
11. STP 88.22 • 50-day SMA: 70.94 • 24% over its 50-day SMA. Ridiculous. Wait
12. CMG 141.70 • 50-day SMA: 135.77 • Wait
13. BIDU 375.09 • 50-day SMA: 367.28 • Sideways action since October. CFO's mysterious death doesn't help
14. FWLT 169.17 • 50-day SMA: 150.15 • Big gap up today (4.7%). Wait
15. FLS 96.15 • 50-day SMA: 91.43 • Traded seemingly forever in the 60s and 70s. Pricey now. Wait
16. FMCN 58.98 • 50-day SMA: 57.04 • Wait
17. GS 204.84 • 50-day SMA: 219.26 • 100-day SMA: 209.27 • 200-day SMA: 212.26 • Down 1.3% today. Great price, inch in
18. NKE 62.71 • 50-day SMA: 64.10 • 100-day SMA: 60.80 • Six down days in a row. Fair price, inch in
19. CEO 169.84 • 50-day SMA: 176.96 • 100-day SMA: 159.33 • Fair price, up 1.4% on increased volume
20. VMW 83.95 • 50-day SMA: 94.05 • Fair price, facing stiff competition long term. Inch in for near-term trade only
21. LULU 44.76 • 50-day SMA: 44.29 • Fair price, low volume. Long way from earnings, likely to fall more
22. MSFT 35.37 • 50-day SMA: 34.58 • Wait
23. AMZN 95.21 • 50-day SMA: 88.06 • Wait
24. EBAY 32.85 • 50-day SMA: 33.60 • 100-day SMA: 35.23 • 200-day SMA: 34.21 • Dysfunctional stock, crummy policing of ripoff sellers. PayPal is undeniably strong, though. Great price, horrible volume. Inch in for near-term trade
25. LFC 74.64 • 50-day SMA: 84.57 • 100-day SMA: 81.53 • 200-day SMA: 66.29 • Good price, down five sessions in a row. Inch in
Buys? Not necessarily. But worth exploring.
1. AAPL 194.93 • 50-day SMA: 183.39 • Wait
2. GOOG 685.53 • 50-day SMA: 685.16 • Up just 14¢ on lower volume. Wait
3. RIMM 112.82 • 50-day SMA: 113.25 • Fair price, but mediocre volume says this is dead money near term
4. ISRG 321.75 • 50-day SMA: 313.94 • Wait
5. NTDOY.PK 74.55 • 50-day SMA: n/a • Recent 50-day was 73.13. Wait
6. POT 146.88 • 50-day SMA: 122.90 • Wait. It may take almost forever, but wait
7. CHL 85.44 • 50-day SMA: 90.13 • 100-day SMA: 81.52 • Up 79¢ on lower volume. Good price. Inch in and expect a better price
8. PTR 170.64 • 50-day SMA: 201.02 • 100-day SMA: 184.28 • 200-day SMA: 157.38 • Plunging on low volume. Great price. Inch in
9. FSLR 265.87 • 50-day SMA: 213.56 • Wait
10. MCD 57.93 • 50-day SMA: 58.58 • 100-day SMA: 55.05 • Fair price, great earnings, inch in
11. STP 88.22 • 50-day SMA: 70.94 • 24% over its 50-day SMA. Ridiculous. Wait
12. CMG 141.70 • 50-day SMA: 135.77 • Wait
13. BIDU 375.09 • 50-day SMA: 367.28 • Sideways action since October. CFO's mysterious death doesn't help
14. FWLT 169.17 • 50-day SMA: 150.15 • Big gap up today (4.7%). Wait
15. FLS 96.15 • 50-day SMA: 91.43 • Traded seemingly forever in the 60s and 70s. Pricey now. Wait
16. FMCN 58.98 • 50-day SMA: 57.04 • Wait
17. GS 204.84 • 50-day SMA: 219.26 • 100-day SMA: 209.27 • 200-day SMA: 212.26 • Down 1.3% today. Great price, inch in
18. NKE 62.71 • 50-day SMA: 64.10 • 100-day SMA: 60.80 • Six down days in a row. Fair price, inch in
19. CEO 169.84 • 50-day SMA: 176.96 • 100-day SMA: 159.33 • Fair price, up 1.4% on increased volume
20. VMW 83.95 • 50-day SMA: 94.05 • Fair price, facing stiff competition long term. Inch in for near-term trade only
21. LULU 44.76 • 50-day SMA: 44.29 • Fair price, low volume. Long way from earnings, likely to fall more
22. MSFT 35.37 • 50-day SMA: 34.58 • Wait
23. AMZN 95.21 • 50-day SMA: 88.06 • Wait
24. EBAY 32.85 • 50-day SMA: 33.60 • 100-day SMA: 35.23 • 200-day SMA: 34.21 • Dysfunctional stock, crummy policing of ripoff sellers. PayPal is undeniably strong, though. Great price, horrible volume. Inch in for near-term trade
25. LFC 74.64 • 50-day SMA: 84.57 • 100-day SMA: 81.53 • 200-day SMA: 66.29 • Good price, down five sessions in a row. Inch in
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Ins and Outs
Two sessions ago, eight of my favorite 25 stocks showed up on the radar. They had interesting prices. Not all necessarily had entry points to buy. After today's session, there are nine stocks on the radar.
based on closing prices, Jan. 2, 2007
1. AAPL 194 • 50-day SMA: 182 • Wait
2. GOOG 685 • 50-day SMA: 684 • 100-day SMA: 618 • Wait
3. RIMM 113.71 • 50-day SMA: 113.26 • 100-day SMA: 102 • Wait
4. ISRG 323 • 50-day SMA: 313 • Wait
5. NTDOY.PK 73.95 • 50-day SMA: 73.13 • 100-day SMA: 67 • Wait
6. POT 146 • 50-day SMA: 122 • Wait
7. CHL 84 • 50-day SMA: 90 • 100-day SMA: 81 • Good price, could get better • chart
8. PTR 173 • 50-day SMA: 202 • 100-day SMA: 183 • 200-day SMA: 157 • Very good price • chart
9. FSLR 267 • 50-day SMA: 210 • Wait
10. MCD 58.10 • 50-day SMA: 58.51 • 100-day SMA: 54.95 • Fair price, could be cheaper • chart
11. STP 85 • 50-day SMA: 70 • Wait
12. CMG 146 • 50-day SMA: 135 • Wait
13. BIDU 381 • 50-day SMA: 366 • Wait
14. FWLT 161 • 50-day SMA: 149 • Wait
15. FLS 94 • 50-day SMA: 91 • Wait
16. FMCN 57.13 • 50-day SMA: 56.96 • 100-day SMA: 52.50 • Wait
17. GS 207 • 50-day SMA: 219 • 100-day SMA: 209 • 200-day SMA: 212 • Great price, could get better • chart
18. NKE 63.28 • 50-day SMA: 64.11 • 100-day SMA: 60 • Fair price, could be cheaper • chart
19. CEO 167 • 50-day SMA: 177 • 100-day SMA: 158 • Good price, could get better • chart
20. VMW 84 • 50-day SMA: 94 • Good price, could get better • chart
21. LULU 44.82 • 50-day SMA: 44.55 • Wait
22. MSFT 35.22 • 50-day SMA: 34.48 • Wait
23. AMZN 96 • 50-day SMA: 87 • Wait
24. EBAY 32.49 • 50-day SMA: 33.67 • 100-day SMA: 35.26 • 200-day SMA: 34.20 • Great price for a short-term trade • chart
25. LFC 74 • 50-day SMA: 85 • 100-day SMA: 81 • 200-day SMA: 66 • Good price, could get better • chart
As always, the best approach when a good stock dips is to wade in rather than dive headfirst.
> > > Pyramiding into a stock
based on closing prices, Jan. 2, 2007
1. AAPL 194 • 50-day SMA: 182 • Wait
2. GOOG 685 • 50-day SMA: 684 • 100-day SMA: 618 • Wait
3. RIMM 113.71 • 50-day SMA: 113.26 • 100-day SMA: 102 • Wait
4. ISRG 323 • 50-day SMA: 313 • Wait
5. NTDOY.PK 73.95 • 50-day SMA: 73.13 • 100-day SMA: 67 • Wait
6. POT 146 • 50-day SMA: 122 • Wait
7. CHL 84 • 50-day SMA: 90 • 100-day SMA: 81 • Good price, could get better • chart
8. PTR 173 • 50-day SMA: 202 • 100-day SMA: 183 • 200-day SMA: 157 • Very good price • chart
9. FSLR 267 • 50-day SMA: 210 • Wait
10. MCD 58.10 • 50-day SMA: 58.51 • 100-day SMA: 54.95 • Fair price, could be cheaper • chart
11. STP 85 • 50-day SMA: 70 • Wait
12. CMG 146 • 50-day SMA: 135 • Wait
13. BIDU 381 • 50-day SMA: 366 • Wait
14. FWLT 161 • 50-day SMA: 149 • Wait
15. FLS 94 • 50-day SMA: 91 • Wait
16. FMCN 57.13 • 50-day SMA: 56.96 • 100-day SMA: 52.50 • Wait
17. GS 207 • 50-day SMA: 219 • 100-day SMA: 209 • 200-day SMA: 212 • Great price, could get better • chart
18. NKE 63.28 • 50-day SMA: 64.11 • 100-day SMA: 60 • Fair price, could be cheaper • chart
19. CEO 167 • 50-day SMA: 177 • 100-day SMA: 158 • Good price, could get better • chart
20. VMW 84 • 50-day SMA: 94 • Good price, could get better • chart
21. LULU 44.82 • 50-day SMA: 44.55 • Wait
22. MSFT 35.22 • 50-day SMA: 34.48 • Wait
23. AMZN 96 • 50-day SMA: 87 • Wait
24. EBAY 32.49 • 50-day SMA: 33.67 • 100-day SMA: 35.26 • 200-day SMA: 34.20 • Great price for a short-term trade • chart
25. LFC 74 • 50-day SMA: 85 • 100-day SMA: 81 • 200-day SMA: 66 • Good price, could get better • chart
As always, the best approach when a good stock dips is to wade in rather than dive headfirst.
> > > Pyramiding into a stock
Tuesday, December 25, 2007
No. 7 China Mobile: Beast of the East
This is why getting basic is always a good thing. Fundamentally, China Mobile is a raging growth stock. Technically, however, I bought it a few months ago at 95, when it was near a top. That never works out, really, in the short term.
At 91, though, CHL is now pushing up through the 50-day SMA. For some folks, this is bullish. For bargain hunters, it's too late. For optimists who see a lot of green in CHL's future, it's never too late. Me? I'll hold off until the next pullback. This Co's dominance in China, plus the people's addiction to cellphones (they access the internet through phones more than computers), warrants close attention.
At 91, though, CHL is now pushing up through the 50-day SMA. For some folks, this is bullish. For bargain hunters, it's too late. For optimists who see a lot of green in CHL's future, it's never too late. Me? I'll hold off until the next pullback. This Co's dominance in China, plus the people's addiction to cellphones (they access the internet through phones more than computers), warrants close attention.
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
Suckage wasn't as bad as I thought
I manage to beat myself down pretty good when a trade goes sour. But looking over my mistakes, I can feel a little better about recent sells. No, I didn't sell at the right price or time. That's listed for the record in my full disclosure (at right). But these stocks that I recently got out of have dipped even lower since.
Amazon (AMZN) • sold @ 90.11 • currently 86.01 (after hours)
China Mobile (CHL) • sold @ 87.54 • currently 86.49
Crocs (CROX) • sold @ 41.70 • currently 40.76
Garmin (GRMN) • sold @ 117.20 • currently 89.00
Longtop Financial (LFT) • sold @ 25.90 • currently 23.19
lululemon athletica (LULU) • sold @ 43.70 • currently 41.00
Blue Nile (NILE) • sold @ 81.25 • currently 80.70
China Digital TV (STV) • sold @ 37, 39 • currently 35.24
VMware (VMW) • sold @ 102.72 • currently 99.80
Yingli Green Energy (YGE) • sold @ 34.85 • currently 36.00
I bought back only into one of these stocks: YGE. Other than that, I'm more than happy to wait out this storm. VMware and China Mobile are the most attractive of the rest.
Amazon (AMZN) • sold @ 90.11 • currently 86.01 (after hours)
China Mobile (CHL) • sold @ 87.54 • currently 86.49
Crocs (CROX) • sold @ 41.70 • currently 40.76
Garmin (GRMN) • sold @ 117.20 • currently 89.00
Longtop Financial (LFT) • sold @ 25.90 • currently 23.19
lululemon athletica (LULU) • sold @ 43.70 • currently 41.00
Blue Nile (NILE) • sold @ 81.25 • currently 80.70
China Digital TV (STV) • sold @ 37, 39 • currently 35.24
VMware (VMW) • sold @ 102.72 • currently 99.80
Yingli Green Energy (YGE) • sold @ 34.85 • currently 36.00
I bought back only into one of these stocks: YGE. Other than that, I'm more than happy to wait out this storm. VMware and China Mobile are the most attractive of the rest.
Bargain hunting in a nervous market
What is great? What is cheap? Phil Town did it his way, the way he learned from a mentor: buy great companies on the cheap. Of course, we all have different definitions of "great," but we probably can agree on cheap. For me, a bargain has less to do with P/E and more to do with discount, particularly of a growth stock. So, with those notions in mind, here's a look at what's on sale. Or not.
Apple 191.79
On paper: Back in the 90s, 120s and 130s, the stock had longs feeling impatient. After all, when AAPL hit an all-time high of 85, it promptly sunk into the 50s and took 10 months to return to the 80s. That's one hell of a wait. But since breaking out of the 90s with initial news of the newfangled iPhone, the stock has been on a tear. A double in six months is something magnificent. The stock has traded above its 10-day moving averages almost all the time since August.
The skinny: holiday season is upon us, but it is still more than two months until the next earnings report. Can AAPL continue to ramp up without news?
Of course, the best and simplest approach is to buy and hold. My faux buy-Apple-only (monthly) portfolio is nothing but green, green, green.
Pupule says: As much as I love the company and the products, I will wait.
Google 741.79
On paper: Screw paper. This is a "holy shit" stock and has been since mid-September, when GOOG traded at 520. The stock is well above its 10-day moving averages. There is not much to be said for a stock that has traded up nearly every day for two months. The news keeps coming out, good, great and peerless.
The skinny: The good news won't be endless, and there will be a pullback sooner or later. Then again, this stock sat at 460-500 for such a long time that those of us who passed on GOOG (me) deserve to suffer as fans on the sidelines.
Pupule says: Wait. Do not chase.
Intuitive Surgical 317.07
On paper: This was below 140 three months ago. Holy crud. The stock is trading below its 10-day SMA (320.79), but above its 10-day EMA (311.38).
The skinny: Cramer helped move the stock with his "buy-buy-buy!" directive a couple of weeks ago. Until major buying volume returns, ISRG is too hot to handle.
Pupule says: Wait.
Research in Motion 131.64
On paper: Upgrades and hype, like Citigroup's new label as the "best stock of 2008" don't hurt. The stock is far above its moving averages.
The skinny: RIMM is one of the very few stocks I feel comfortable viewing as a long-term hold. It is also a stock that moves in boxes (re: Nicolas Darvas), which makes it attractive as a trading vehicle.
Pupule says: Until there is a kryptonite for RIMM, it is almost a "can't lose" stock. Still, best to wait until it comes down below its moving averages, hopefully some time in this decade.
Baidu 407.70
On paper: Far above its moving averages. Frothy.
The skinny: No news to lift it any further. BIDU has gone straight up from 310 to 430 (Tuesday) without a breather.
Pupule says: Wait, wait, wait.
China Life Insurance 92.98
On paper: The China selloff hit LFC in a nice way. At 92, it is trading at the same levels it did at the end of September. A bargain? Relatively, yes, for a stock that has doubled in six months. Trades well below its 10-day EMA (95.78) and SMA (97.16).
The skinny: I always thought of LFC as a "safe" play but had no idea it would explode. All of the more sedate sectors seem to explode in China thanks to the influx of new arrivals to the growing middle class. Family-oriented societies are going to invest in life insurance, no ifs, ands or buts.
Pupule says: A fair buy here. Still down 13% from it's all-time high.
China Mobile 92.06
On paper: stock hit 104 on Oct. 29, more than double since Aug. 16. The recent selloff brought the stock below 90, and it had a moderate comeback on Tuesday to 92. Still below its 10-day averages (EMA 95.26, SMA 98.01). Nowhere close to its 50-day EMA (83.78) and SMA (81.96).
The skinny: The stock has bounced off every gap down since the August low.
Pupule says: Yeah, I got out at 87 the other day, but this a classic red chip stock on sale — 16% off its high. Buy.
Chipotle Mexican Grill 131.88
On paper: CMG is down from its all-time high of 141, now touching its 10-day EMA (131.71) and under its 10-day SMA (132.31).
The skinny: The stock has run to two new highs in the past month, but volume really kicked up on the second leg up. Is there another leg left? Dunno.
Pupule says: Wait. Yesterday's volume was very weak, and it's a big if whether there are still more buyers out there than sellers.
CNOOC Ltd. 190.03
On paper: After hitting 218 on Halloween, CEO has sold off and now trades below its 10-day moving averages.
The skinny: Crude is at its all-time highs, which means the weakness in the stock right now is not a happy signal. After doubling in less than three months, the stock could be in for a long stretch of consolidation.
Pupule says: I loved this stock in the 90s, but didn't have the foresight to buy at a P/E of 11. Anyone with insights about this stock, please chime in.
PetroChina 229.42
On paper: Like CNOOC, PetroChina has tumbled as quickly as it spiked. After running from 190 to 266 in just five sessions (mid-October), PTR went stagnant, then dropped on Monday. It trades below its 10-day moving averages (EMA 239, SMA 244).
The skinny: Do you trust a state-owned sector leader that is charged with geopolitical undercurrents? If so, then this is your cup of tea.
Pupule says: The price screams buy. Buying PTR and/or CEO almost feels (I imagine) like buying a piece of the mob. They won't be defeated, and you'll never really get a clean look at their books. I'm not picky that way. I wish I'd been long PTR and CEO all along.
VMware 110.04
On paper: After debuting at 50 in mid-August, the stock has risen as high as 150%. VMW is down 12% from its high of 125, now below its 10-day EMA (112.89). Four down days in a row with shrinking volume is a good sign for longs.
The skinny: Virtualization. Dominance. Most likely to succeed? Probably.
Pupule says: For VMW groupies, this is clearly a buy. For bargain hunters, worth waiting more. At 110, the stock is at a pivotal point. Market gyrations could give us a cheaper price. Those of us who pass on VMW will be lamenting our ineptitude when it hits 300 in one year. Just my little guesstimate.
Apple 191.79On paper: Back in the 90s, 120s and 130s, the stock had longs feeling impatient. After all, when AAPL hit an all-time high of 85, it promptly sunk into the 50s and took 10 months to return to the 80s. That's one hell of a wait. But since breaking out of the 90s with initial news of the newfangled iPhone, the stock has been on a tear. A double in six months is something magnificent. The stock has traded above its 10-day moving averages almost all the time since August.
The skinny: holiday season is upon us, but it is still more than two months until the next earnings report. Can AAPL continue to ramp up without news?
Of course, the best and simplest approach is to buy and hold. My faux buy-Apple-only (monthly) portfolio is nothing but green, green, green.
Pupule says: As much as I love the company and the products, I will wait.
Google 741.79
On paper: Screw paper. This is a "holy shit" stock and has been since mid-September, when GOOG traded at 520. The stock is well above its 10-day moving averages. There is not much to be said for a stock that has traded up nearly every day for two months. The news keeps coming out, good, great and peerless.
The skinny: The good news won't be endless, and there will be a pullback sooner or later. Then again, this stock sat at 460-500 for such a long time that those of us who passed on GOOG (me) deserve to suffer as fans on the sidelines.
Pupule says: Wait. Do not chase.
Intuitive Surgical 317.07
On paper: This was below 140 three months ago. Holy crud. The stock is trading below its 10-day SMA (320.79), but above its 10-day EMA (311.38).
The skinny: Cramer helped move the stock with his "buy-buy-buy!" directive a couple of weeks ago. Until major buying volume returns, ISRG is too hot to handle.
Pupule says: Wait.
Research in Motion 131.64
On paper: Upgrades and hype, like Citigroup's new label as the "best stock of 2008" don't hurt. The stock is far above its moving averages.
The skinny: RIMM is one of the very few stocks I feel comfortable viewing as a long-term hold. It is also a stock that moves in boxes (re: Nicolas Darvas), which makes it attractive as a trading vehicle.
Pupule says: Until there is a kryptonite for RIMM, it is almost a "can't lose" stock. Still, best to wait until it comes down below its moving averages, hopefully some time in this decade.
Baidu 407.70On paper: Far above its moving averages. Frothy.
The skinny: No news to lift it any further. BIDU has gone straight up from 310 to 430 (Tuesday) without a breather.
Pupule says: Wait, wait, wait.
China Life Insurance 92.98
On paper: The China selloff hit LFC in a nice way. At 92, it is trading at the same levels it did at the end of September. A bargain? Relatively, yes, for a stock that has doubled in six months. Trades well below its 10-day EMA (95.78) and SMA (97.16).
The skinny: I always thought of LFC as a "safe" play but had no idea it would explode. All of the more sedate sectors seem to explode in China thanks to the influx of new arrivals to the growing middle class. Family-oriented societies are going to invest in life insurance, no ifs, ands or buts.
Pupule says: A fair buy here. Still down 13% from it's all-time high.
China Mobile 92.06
On paper: stock hit 104 on Oct. 29, more than double since Aug. 16. The recent selloff brought the stock below 90, and it had a moderate comeback on Tuesday to 92. Still below its 10-day averages (EMA 95.26, SMA 98.01). Nowhere close to its 50-day EMA (83.78) and SMA (81.96).
The skinny: The stock has bounced off every gap down since the August low.
Pupule says: Yeah, I got out at 87 the other day, but this a classic red chip stock on sale — 16% off its high. Buy.
Chipotle Mexican Grill 131.88
On paper: CMG is down from its all-time high of 141, now touching its 10-day EMA (131.71) and under its 10-day SMA (132.31).
The skinny: The stock has run to two new highs in the past month, but volume really kicked up on the second leg up. Is there another leg left? Dunno.
Pupule says: Wait. Yesterday's volume was very weak, and it's a big if whether there are still more buyers out there than sellers.
CNOOC Ltd. 190.03
On paper: After hitting 218 on Halloween, CEO has sold off and now trades below its 10-day moving averages.
The skinny: Crude is at its all-time highs, which means the weakness in the stock right now is not a happy signal. After doubling in less than three months, the stock could be in for a long stretch of consolidation.
Pupule says: I loved this stock in the 90s, but didn't have the foresight to buy at a P/E of 11. Anyone with insights about this stock, please chime in.
PetroChina 229.42
On paper: Like CNOOC, PetroChina has tumbled as quickly as it spiked. After running from 190 to 266 in just five sessions (mid-October), PTR went stagnant, then dropped on Monday. It trades below its 10-day moving averages (EMA 239, SMA 244).
The skinny: Do you trust a state-owned sector leader that is charged with geopolitical undercurrents? If so, then this is your cup of tea.
Pupule says: The price screams buy. Buying PTR and/or CEO almost feels (I imagine) like buying a piece of the mob. They won't be defeated, and you'll never really get a clean look at their books. I'm not picky that way. I wish I'd been long PTR and CEO all along.
VMware 110.04
On paper: After debuting at 50 in mid-August, the stock has risen as high as 150%. VMW is down 12% from its high of 125, now below its 10-day EMA (112.89). Four down days in a row with shrinking volume is a good sign for longs.
The skinny: Virtualization. Dominance. Most likely to succeed? Probably.
Pupule says: For VMW groupies, this is clearly a buy. For bargain hunters, worth waiting more. At 110, the stock is at a pivotal point. Market gyrations could give us a cheaper price. Those of us who pass on VMW will be lamenting our ineptitude when it hits 300 in one year. Just my little guesstimate.
Monday, November 5, 2007
Pruning the barren pupule tree
Sold CHL (loss of $7/share), LULU (gain of $2/share) and YGE (even). Just too much unpredictability and negativity to hold these babies, even with small positions. I'm not going to wait for these stocks to bleed to death. YGE is actually hanging tough, and had been early in the day. But I will stay out of these. I'm still holding BIDU, MCD, NTDOY, UA, RIMM, AAPL and VMW. MCD and UA are for my nephew.
There's no doubt in my mind. With the Fed out of rate cuts and the US economy slowing, our market is bearish and getting more so by the day. Companies like Crocs and Under Armor are raising guidance and getting pummeled. The only stocks seemingly resistant to all of the financials (Citigroup) and housing subprime crap and economic slowdown today are Google and Baidu. Blue Nile, which reports tomorrow, is up 3.1%. McDonald's is up fractionally.
Other than that, I'm just relieved to prune those stocks out of my folio. When the market turns, I'll be back in.
There's no doubt in my mind. With the Fed out of rate cuts and the US economy slowing, our market is bearish and getting more so by the day. Companies like Crocs and Under Armor are raising guidance and getting pummeled. The only stocks seemingly resistant to all of the financials (Citigroup) and housing subprime crap and economic slowdown today are Google and Baidu. Blue Nile, which reports tomorrow, is up 3.1%. McDonald's is up fractionally.
Other than that, I'm just relieved to prune those stocks out of my folio. When the market turns, I'll be back in.
CHL is a cheap call
And I don't mean call as in options. China Mobile got butchered on the Hang Seng simply because Big Red (Chinese government) is delaying retail investors from entering the HS. So shares sank all the way down to 86+ this morning. I added more to my little position at 89.78. It may take some time, but China's economy, the use of cellphones to surf the net and online gaming are unparalleled. I think 89 is a steal at this point. The stock is trading far below its 10-day averages (SMA 99, EMA 97).
Ni hao ma!
Ni hao ma!
Friday, November 2, 2007
China Mobile a buy
Almost picked up more VMware, but the increased volume today on a dip kept me at a distance. I did scoop up a few shares of China Mobile for the first time. The stock has ramped up in the past few months and may be in for a period of lengthy consolidation. That's fine. I like where it is right now, and also where the prospects of the Co are in the near future. As I mentioned earlier, online gaming is huge in China, and CHL is just starting to dip its toes into this new area. For trading purposes, I would've been better off increasing a position in another stock, but CHL is too good to bypass anymore. It's an A grade stock, but I won't hesitate to take a good profit.
Steroid Monsters Good
Normally, words like steroids and monsters conjure up negativity, even nightmares for squeamish little boys and girls like us. But really, in the market, the big-cap growth stocks have flourished for long-term holders. For short-term swing traders, they have been glorious. Apple. RIMM. Google.
Today, with the market returning to a neutral state, at least in the NAS, I'm looking for a bargain. China Mobile is at 99.15 in after hours, just below its 10-day simple moving average. CHL is well off its highs of the week, a steroid monster with the dominant position in China. Because of the Chinese penchant for internet surfing via cellphone rather than the PC, growth is still going to be huge for China Mobile. The Co is only beginning to tap into the enormous online gaming market, as well. Those brothers in China love their online games, and the sisters absolutely depend on text messaging.
Another complex, intriguing temptor is lululemon athletica, which is below 47 right now. The stock has been a trader's wet dream, really, spiking from 40 to 60 in almost no time because of raised guidance. Of course, anything that ascends too quickly comes crashing down just as quickly, if not faster. That's the case for LULU, which has now traded down in seven of the last nine sessions. Today's dip to 46.75 (AH) came on larger volume — not a positive buy sign. Then again, if the market truly is oversold, this is a good place to start a small position. Those who got their 50% gain and sold are wiser and wealthier for it.
I love this Co, but it has to be a trading vehicle, at least with a half-position. It'll probably stay in that category until after Q3 earnings are out. If the Co meets expections — the ones that it guided to last month before the huge spurt to 60 — there could be another selloff. To me, guidance is foolhardy, but the Co may have been responding from a previous dip that sent the stock from 47 to 41 in just two days.
Oh well. This is the nature of the game today for younger growth retail companies. Guide or sink. Google allowed its stock to sink from 125 to 85 in the first few months of its IPO. No guidance, no outward stress. They did all right. I'm not hoping for LULU to dip even more here. I would like to hear about an earnings announcement date, though. Early in any of the upcoming weeks rather than later — one of my few superstitious tenets about bullish-versus-bearish reports. LULU is trading below its 10- and 50-day moving averages. A clear buy signal for an established stock. LULU is too young right now for me to stamp an automatic strong buy tag on it. Risky.
VMware is another attractive buy, even though it has run up so strongly. At 116.75 (AH), the stock is down 4.5% today, but still above its 10-day SMA (114.35). The stock hit a low of 114.55 mid-day, so this may have been the short-term bottom. I love the Co and its prospects, its dominant state. I've said this before, when I bought before earnings, and my perspective has not changed. As long as there's no negative news, it has support at this level. I'm real close to getting a few more shares of VMW right here.
The cloud above all of this thinking and guessing, of course, is the market. No Fed rate cuts on the horizon. More clouds ahead. But the true steroid monsters will plow forward, unstoppable by problems in the U.S. That's what makes CHL compelling. Bad numbers or not in the periphery, VMW will plow forward because of demand. Retail, though, can't really digest a future without stronger consumer spending and/or Fed rate cuts. That rules out more LULU, probably. I'm overweight there to begin with.
Crocs? The stock is all over the place, currently at 47.36 (AH). Can't tell if this is a bottom, or whether it will sink more on Monday without another buyback by the Co. But I haven't sold a share.
Trade in profits when possible. That's my new mantra. But there's no profit with a buy first. Bargain shopping resumes now.
Today, with the market returning to a neutral state, at least in the NAS, I'm looking for a bargain. China Mobile is at 99.15 in after hours, just below its 10-day simple moving average. CHL is well off its highs of the week, a steroid monster with the dominant position in China. Because of the Chinese penchant for internet surfing via cellphone rather than the PC, growth is still going to be huge for China Mobile. The Co is only beginning to tap into the enormous online gaming market, as well. Those brothers in China love their online games, and the sisters absolutely depend on text messaging.
Another complex, intriguing temptor is lululemon athletica, which is below 47 right now. The stock has been a trader's wet dream, really, spiking from 40 to 60 in almost no time because of raised guidance. Of course, anything that ascends too quickly comes crashing down just as quickly, if not faster. That's the case for LULU, which has now traded down in seven of the last nine sessions. Today's dip to 46.75 (AH) came on larger volume — not a positive buy sign. Then again, if the market truly is oversold, this is a good place to start a small position. Those who got their 50% gain and sold are wiser and wealthier for it.
I love this Co, but it has to be a trading vehicle, at least with a half-position. It'll probably stay in that category until after Q3 earnings are out. If the Co meets expections — the ones that it guided to last month before the huge spurt to 60 — there could be another selloff. To me, guidance is foolhardy, but the Co may have been responding from a previous dip that sent the stock from 47 to 41 in just two days.
Oh well. This is the nature of the game today for younger growth retail companies. Guide or sink. Google allowed its stock to sink from 125 to 85 in the first few months of its IPO. No guidance, no outward stress. They did all right. I'm not hoping for LULU to dip even more here. I would like to hear about an earnings announcement date, though. Early in any of the upcoming weeks rather than later — one of my few superstitious tenets about bullish-versus-bearish reports. LULU is trading below its 10- and 50-day moving averages. A clear buy signal for an established stock. LULU is too young right now for me to stamp an automatic strong buy tag on it. Risky.
VMware is another attractive buy, even though it has run up so strongly. At 116.75 (AH), the stock is down 4.5% today, but still above its 10-day SMA (114.35). The stock hit a low of 114.55 mid-day, so this may have been the short-term bottom. I love the Co and its prospects, its dominant state. I've said this before, when I bought before earnings, and my perspective has not changed. As long as there's no negative news, it has support at this level. I'm real close to getting a few more shares of VMW right here.
The cloud above all of this thinking and guessing, of course, is the market. No Fed rate cuts on the horizon. More clouds ahead. But the true steroid monsters will plow forward, unstoppable by problems in the U.S. That's what makes CHL compelling. Bad numbers or not in the periphery, VMW will plow forward because of demand. Retail, though, can't really digest a future without stronger consumer spending and/or Fed rate cuts. That rules out more LULU, probably. I'm overweight there to begin with.
Crocs? The stock is all over the place, currently at 47.36 (AH). Can't tell if this is a bottom, or whether it will sink more on Monday without another buyback by the Co. But I haven't sold a share.
Trade in profits when possible. That's my new mantra. But there's no profit with a buy first. Bargain shopping resumes now.
Thursday, October 18, 2007
China Mobile inching toward mobile gaming dominance
I liked China Mobile, but I stayed away. Then CHL got hot and practically doubled in six months. I love CHL now, but it's too expensive. So what to do? Wong Joon Ian has an interesting perspective about mobile gaming and China. China Economic Review: In a giant’s shadow
It is still early days for mobile gaming in China. A telecoms restructuring is expected next year and there are signs of a growing interest in gaming among the carriers. China Mobile, for one, has revamped its mobile games portal.
With 501 million subscribers, China Mobile has a stranglehold on the space. I want in before mobile gaming takes CHL's stock to the next galaxy.
Shanghai market may Sit down soon
From Gene Sit, veteran China investment manager:BusinessWeek: Waiting Out the Bubble
Why do you think the damage won't be too bad?
We see a soft landing because we think fundamentals will continue to be good. China's GDP might not be 10% to 11%, but it might be 8% to 9% after the summer of 2008. That's because China now has the money, with growing reserves, and the trade numbers continue to be quite favorable. The government has the resources to build the country's infrastructure, and it can improve living and environmental conditions. Plus, the savings rate is very high, and corporations are making money.
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