Showing posts with label SNDK. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SNDK. Show all posts

Monday, August 6, 2007

Double-checking the shopping list

On Friday, I did some mental preparation (as opposed to physical prep via barf bag for another turbulent ride) by staking out some price targets if stocks plunged again.

Well, Nasdaq is actually up 7 points today, but a large majority of the strongest growth stocks have been stunted. One of my favorites, CROX, actually fell from $59 at the open to a low of $52, but I missed the bargain-buying opportunity. It was bedtime for me (4-7 a.m. Hawaii time). Oh well.

Here's a look at my A- and B+ stock lists and where the targets compare as of 1:50 p.m. Eastern time.





[A-] Amazon (AMZN), Friday price 76, target 70 ... today's low 76, currently 77
[A-] Apple (AAPL), now 131, target 125 ... today's low 128, currently 132
[A-] Baidu (BIDU), now 198, target 175 ... today's low 186, currently 191
[A-] Crocs (CROX), now 58, target 54 ... today's low 52.50, currently 55
[A-] Foster Wheeler (FWLT), now 110, target 98 ... today's low 101, currently 101
[A-] Garmin (GRMN), now 98, target 88 ... today's low 95, currently 95
[A-] Google (GOOG), now 503, target 480 ... today's low 502, currently 507
[A-] Nintendo (NTDOY.PK), now 56, target 55 ... today's low n/a, current bid 57.20, current ask 57.50
[A-] Research in Motion (RIMM), now 218, target 206 ... today's low 213, currently 217
[A-] Under Armor (UA), now 64, target 60 ... today's low 62, currently 63

Of these 10 A- picks, only one has already hit the target (CROX).





[B+] China Medical Parts (CMED), now 32, target 30 ... today's low 27, currently 28
[B+] CNOOC Ltd. (CEO), now 113, target 111 ... today's low 109, currently 109
[B+] Darden Intl. (DAR), now 8.03, target 7.50 ... today's low 7.82, currently 8.03
[B+] Flowserve (FLS), now 68, target 65 ... today's low 67, currently 68
[B+] Focus Media (FMCN), now 39, target 35 ... today's low 37, currently 37
[B+] Gmarket (GMKT), now 22, target 21 ... today's low 21.55, currently 22.32
[B+] HDFC Bank (HDB), now 81, target 73 ... today's low 81, currently 83
[B+] Intercontinental Exch. (ICE), now 153, target 140 ... today's low 148, currently 152
[B+] Opsware (OPSW), sold to HPQ at 14.25
[B+] Potash Corp. (POT), now 85, target 77 ... today's low 81, currently 82
[B+] Precision Castparts (PCP), now 137, target 125 ... today's low 134, currently 135
[B+] Salesforce.com (CRM), now 39, target 27 ... today's low 38, currently 40
[B+] SanDisk (SNDK), now 53, target 49 ... today's low 53, currently 53
[B+] Sina Corp. (SINA), now 42, target 40 ... today's low 40.85, currently 41.63

Of the 14 B+, two Chinese stocks hit targets. CMED is a tough call even at 28. CEO, though, trades at only 11 times earnings and is a solid oil/gas play out of China. Plenty of growth ahead as an off-shore driller providing energy for a booming economy.

Gmarket of South Korea is another nice company on this radar. The robust earnings report of last week was nice, but I want to examine GMKT's potential competition across East Asia a lot more closely.

Overall, there's no point in climbing into a plane when weather is stormy. If anything, small ball (chiseling in with small positions) could work here, but I'm going to wait it out before buying more.

Pupule Paul is long AAPL, BIDU, CROX, NTDOY.PK, UA, FMCN and SINA.

Friday, August 3, 2007

Yes, B+ picks can be bargains too

Here's my shopping list for Monday, when the market could resume the Big Dipper, then turn around at mid-day.

I never cared for roller coasters, but that's what we're on for awhile. My wish list, current prices and target buy prices (highly adjustable):

[B+] China Medical Parts (CMED), now 32, target 30
[B+] CNOOC Ltd. (CEO), now 113, target 111
[B+] Darden Intl. (DAR), now 8.03, target 7.50
[B+] Flowserve (FLS), now 68, target 65
[B+] Focus Media (FMCN), now 39, target 35
[B+] Gmarket (GMKT), now 22, target 21
[B+] HDFC Bank (HDB), now 81, target 73
[B+] Intercontinental Exch. (ICE), now 153, target 140
[B+] Opsware (OPSW), sold to HPQ at 14.25
[B+] Potash Corp. (POT), now 85, target 77
[B+] Precision Castparts (PCP), now 137, target 125
[B+] Salesforce.com (CRM), now 39, target 27
[B+] SanDisk (SNDK), now 53, target 49
[B+] Sina Corp. (SINA), now 42, target 40

Dammit, where's the barf bag?

B+ picks slide, but Potash still rising

The B+ gang of picks is holding up fairly well, but that's like saying there were survivors of the Titanic. Fortunately, no lives are being lost in today's market, no matter how bloody.

With Dow Jones down 281 points (2.1%) and Nasdaq off 64 points (2.5%), five of the B+ picks were down more than 3%. Flowserve (FLS) sank 4.7% to $68.87 after announcing that it would sell its Swiss manufacturing facility.

HDFC Bank (HDB) of India was down 4.5% to $81.71. No bad news. Just a big bank being hit hard like all the financials. Whether the credit issue pertains to India is another question.

Darling International (DAR) got an upgrade on Monday, but sold down with the rest of the market. DAR closed at $8.03, down 4%.

China Medical Parts (CMED) and CNOOC Ltd. (CEO) were hit by U.S. volatility, as well. No bad news for either company, which could make CNOOC extremely attractive. With a P/E of 11 and return on equity of 34%, I admit it. I'm tempted.

Of the 13 B+ picks, five are in the green. Potash (POT) continues to trade like an internet bubble stock. The fertilizer company is up another 1.9% to $85,35. When I took notice of Potash a few months back, it was at $210 (pre-3 for 1 split) and it look overpriced. Wrong. I was wrong. As long as agriculture is hot, so it will be with the big POT.

SanDisk (SNDK), Focus Media (FMCN) and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) are also up. SNDK had a great earnings report a couple of weeks ago, but has pulled back from its recent high of $62. SNDK is trading at $53.43, up 1.6% for the day.

FMCN is up on no news, but the stock has been hammered in the past month since the Co asked Nasdaq for a hearing regarding two letters from a short seller. FMCN traded up 1.1% to $39.82, well off its high of $52.

Wednesday, July 25, 2007

Better than Xmas for Apple longs

Kids can have Christmas. Apple longs are having theirs right ... about ... now!

Shares of AAPL have blown up bears in after-hours trading. Since Apple announced typical world-beating numbers today, the stock bottomed at $129 on silly fears over iPhone numbers, then made a sprint to $150.

The move gives AAPL its all-time high and a very similar performance to Amazon's stock yesterday, which ran from $69 at the close to $84 at the end of extended hours.

Today, AAPL still has more than 2 more hours to make noise, kill bears and stomp out remaining doubters. Not that I'm a genius by any means. I sold at $92. Ouch.

Crocs are also putting a bite on bears. The polarizing stock and Co is trading at $49.90 in after hours, up from yesterday's close of $47.85. With earnings out tomorrow, the run-up from last week's low of $44 isn't entirely surprising. All the fears relating to insider selling in the past quarter have been worked in, and then out of the stock, apparently.

Amazon continued to trade up today after yesterday's eye-popping performance. The stock is up to $87.03 in after hours. For the day, more than 59 million shares traded in AMZN, nearly surpassed only by AAPL's 54 million.

SanDisk bumped up again and is at $58.70 in extended hours. And Nintendo? SuperMario is hopping with joy. Shares of NTDOY.PK closed at $60.40, a gain of 7.8% thanks to a robust earnings report before the market. Were there any doubters? When grandma and auntie are buying their first-ever console, you know it's a Wii.

If all our grandmas and aunties buy Wiis and I buy more NTDOY, it's a win-win and we're all gonna be happy.

Disclaimer: Pupule Paul is long AAPL and NTDOY.PK in miniscule fashion.

Monday, July 23, 2007

SNDA, CMG bumped down; SNDK a growth monster

Some minor changes and a nice addition to my lists of stock picks.

Shanda Interactive down from B+ to B due to government restrictions on online game "addicts". This nut has been getting screwed for awhile now, and last week, the hammer came down. Shanda (SNDA) will still thrive, but at a slower rate, particularly with intense competition from NetEase.

Chipotle Mexican Grill also down from B+ to B due to increased costs in cheese and avocados. Nothing more.

Spartan Motors? Great company, but the stock was priced for perfect execution. That didn't happen recently, when a key contract fell by the wayside. Down from A- to B+.

SanDisk is clearly in strength now with worldwide demand for flash memory growing. SNDK is a B+ here, and very close to an A-. P/E is 74, but growth will be monstrous.

Also like Starbucks as expansion into a robust Chinese economy continues. China's economy was up 11.9% in Q2 over '06 Q2, which means more spending money and more tea at SBUX. Moved SBUX up from B- to B.

Kudos to the real Baron

Ten years ago, maybe 11, a friend and co-worker named Baron Sekiya recommended a stock to me, and I regret that I didn't follow through.

As a photographer, Baron knows the world of camera equipment and technology quite well. He gave a big thumbs up to SanDisk, which blew out earnings last week and is poised to go on a major run thanks to the infusion of "smart phones" like Apple's iPhone. Copycat phones are bound to challenge the leader, which means plenty of business for SanDisk in the coming years.

The stock, which bottomed out on March 1 at $35, is trading this morning at nearly $57.

As for Baron, who I haven't seen in a long time, SNDK is just a company whose products he knows well. I assume still has those shares from a decade ago, and probably added to his position along the way. A decade ago, SNDK traded below a split-adjusteed $3, which makes Baron a very wise investor.