1:17 am (Hawaii) I like my little charts and trendlines and megaphone and pennant patterns. I like candlesticks too, however reliable (or not) they may be. But it's fun now and then to visit American Bulls for their view of stocks. Here's what they say through their candlestick analysis as of Wed Oct 19:
AAPL - Sell confirmed
AGQ - Sell confirmed
DGP - Sell confirmed
SPY - Sell-if...
QQQ - Sell-if...
QID - Buy confirmed
FCX - Wait
EUO - Buy confirmed
Isn't this interesting? All the indicators (at least in my book) of a bullish short-term view are negative, from AAPL to precious metals to bear indice ETFs. So how about financials?
FAS - Buy-if...
FAZ - Buy-if...
So that confirms the confusion and hesitancy of not just me, but of plenty of traders and investors regarding the banks. No surprise that the bank stocks remain choppy, range-bound and largely untouched lately. Or is that really the case?
BAC - Buy-if...
AIG - Sell-if...
C - Sell-if...
GS - Sell-if...
JPM - Buy-if...
MS - Sell-if...
Less positive than I expected. I don't like the banksters, but even this is more bearish than I would've guessed just by the way they've held up through the past week with JPM and GS announcing far less stellar earnings than expected.
NBG - Wait
IRE - Wait
DB - Buy-if...
There are more Eurozone banks but that's enough. As I fall asleep for the night (and premarket opens in 30 minutes), I'm content to stay the heck out for today. The most bullish thing that could happen is Merkel and Sarkozy release the details of their grand plan to save the European monetary system. That would take the US market and precious metals higher since printing all that fiat money will be nothing but a short-term fix. Then the junkie becomes more dependent on the juice (fiat printing).
Showing posts with label Citigroup. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Citigroup. Show all posts
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Wednesday, October 5, 2011
Wednesday cinema & library
A Visionary for our time
A Visionary for all time
Rest in peace, Steve
Steve Jobs
Reuters: Apple co-founder Steve Jobs dead at 56 (Oct 5)
MarketWatch: Apple's Steve Jobs dies at 56 (Oct 5)
CNBC: Steve Jobs: His life in pictures (Oct 5)
Macworld: A look at Steve Job's life and times (Oct 5)
Zero Hedge: Le Figaro discloses France has prepared an emergency nationalization plan for 2 or 3 banks (Oct 5)
Golden Truth: 'New price' (Oct 5)
Peter Tchir: Is Morgan Stanley's biggest asset their debt? (Oct 5)
Zero Hedge: Reason for latest rally: Morgan Stanley leaks own, Goldman's numbers (Oct 5)
Zero Hedge: Mutual fund outflows surge, yet stocks refuse to plunge (Oct 5)
Dan Norcini: Gold still stuck in a range (Oct 5)
Street Insider: Don't worry, if you're rich you won't pay Bank of America a debit card fee (Oct 5)
SGS: Dear James Gorman (CEO of Morgan Stanley) (Oct 5)
Turd Ferguson: Three things to consider (Oct 5)
JS Kim/Zero Hedge: Utah Monetary Declaration of freedom (Oct 5)
Street Insider: Don't worry, if you're rich you won't pay Bank of America a debit card fee (Oct 5)
SGS: Dear James Gorman (CEO of Morgan Stanley) (Oct 5)
Turd Ferguson: Three things to consider (Oct 5)
JS Kim/Zero Hedge: Utah Monetary Declaration of freedom (Oct 5)
Reggie Middleton: Sliced Apple margins for dinner? (Oct 5)
Zero Hedge: FT rumor time: Stress Test III (or optimal Greek haircuts) (Oct 5)
Zero Hedge: Friday's NFP will be disappointment (Oct 5)
SGS: Am I in 2008 Lehman days? (Oct 4)
Charles Hugh Smith: Heresy and the US Dollar (Oct 4)
Vlogs
SGS: Am I in 2008 Lehman days? (Oct 4)
Charles Hugh Smith: Heresy and the US Dollar (Oct 4)
Vlogs
Christopher Greene: Bank of America having digital bank run, website down 6 days (Oct 5)
Keiser Report: Occupy Keiser Report! (Oct 5)
manoftruth: Roseanne Barr on Alex Jones Show (Oct 5)
ScrapGoldBusiness: $25 paper silver coming soon? (Oct 5)
ScrapGoldBusiness: $25 paper silver coming soon? (Oct 5)
Hit the Bid: Krull to arms, it's coming (Oct 5)
Realist News: The monopolies in money and healthcare (Oct 5)
H1INC: F*ck Wall St, occupy your mind (Oct 5)
photo: NewBottomLine.com
george4title: California meltdown, coming soon to your neighborhood (Oct 5)
1beinki: Max Keiser's new plan, 'Tear up your dollars!' (Oct 3)
1beinki: Max Keiser's new plan, 'Tear up your dollars!' (Oct 3)
Audio
Film
Silver Circle: Official :60 trailer (Oct 5)
Mainstream
(video) CNBC: France, Germany to get downgraded? (Oct 5)
Yahoo: America is on sale: Robert Kiyosaki (Oct 5)
Reuters: Asset sales hard for stricken Eurobanks specialist (Oct 5)
Scribd
Citigroup Off-Balance Sheet Risk (Oct 5)
photo: NewBottomLine.com
Friday, June 10, 2011
Thesis and substance
6:41 am (Hawaii) It helps tremendously to back up a thesis with some commitment, if just a partial position. I seem to lack the cajones to do this, apparently. FAZ is one of the preferred vehicles of choice in this June swoon. Come on, didn't you think most traders would run from the possibility of no QE3? I did. But I bought FAZ at near a recent high, then sold yesterday at a loss. The one day in the past week it drops, and I sell. (Last week, I bought at 46.40 and sold at a small loss, too.)
So much for thesis. Finnies? GS (-0.3%), BAC (-1.5%), JPM (-1.7%), C (-1.8%), NBG (-2.8%), STD (-3.3%), IRE (-6.2%). They'll slide and more banks will close, but it's all just a path to consolidation. What the big money lacks in breadth and depth, it will hold even more in the way of pure power. If things get to that dire scenario — hyperinflation, no cash in the ATMs, etc. — it'll still be important to be self-sufficient. But even if things don't get extreme, I still don't trust them banksters. They could jack up service fees far beyond what they do today, always to the brink of pissing the public off, but never too far. They need to keep us borderline solvent, the better to bleed us to death over time. That's why I'm figuring out how much actual fiat, physical metal, food and ammo to have on hand before things get to that point. It's a necessity I don't like.
I just woke up to find FAZ at 51.63, which would've been a paper profit of about $475 or so. Pretty decent. But since I lack commitment in my thesis, it's just chatter. 21% of my Metals list is green. 79% red. This was expected. Yesterday's dead-cat bounce came on horribly low volume. Today's volume is stronger; we're only halfway through and most stocks/etfs are close or above yesterday's totals.
MCP, which is up 2.8%, has strong volume today. XG is up 3.2%. But most of the green gainers on the Metals list are bear plays. ZSL (+5.1%), DUST (+2.9%), FSG (+2.1%), DZZ (+1.4%).
Still 90% cash with a small position in DGP. If Spot Gold (1535) and Silver (36.66) can't regain today's smallish decline, I'll look to add physical below 1520 and 34. Summer and gold have not been a good combination for the past two years, but conditions are exacerbated this time. Picking my spots.
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Tide turning against unruly bears?
If you missed 60 Minutes like I did, here's what Big Ben had to say.
I'm not talking about Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlesberger. The real Big Ben is Bernanke, and he thinks the recession could end this year. Maybe.
Selfish as it sounds, I'm equally concerned about how his words will affect the market in the near term. Still have a small position in Citigroup and started another small one in Wells Fargo on Friday. So far, so good. C, which closed at $1.78 on Friday, is going bonkers in Tokyo.
¥196 = $2.00
It's off the high of ¥212, but the roller coaster ride will continue for C shares in the morning.
Excerpt from the interview:
Bernanke told 60 Minutes we were close to a second Depression and he is determined to not let the major banks fail on his watch.
"One of the things that I think many people watching this interview don't understand, is why there are multiple bailouts, four bailouts of AIG, three bailouts of Citigroup. There is a sense that this is a band-aid approach, that we're not getting to the root of the problem," Pelley remarked.
"Well, part of the issue is that, you know, the economy has gotten a good bit worse. You know, the first part of the crisis was subprime and other assets that were toxic. Now, we're in a second phase, which is that the economy is very weak," he said. "So the economy's weakness has meant that some of the initial attempts to stabilize the banks haven't been enough, and we've had to do more."
"You know, Mr. Chairman, there are so many people outside this building, across this country, who say, 'To hell with them. They made bad bets. The wages of failure on Wall Street should be failure,'" Pelley remarked.
"Let me give you an analogy, if I might," Bernanke said. "If you have a neighbor, who smokes in bed. And he's a risk to everybody. If suppose he sets fire to his house, and you might say to yourself, you know, 'I'm not gonna call the fire department. Let his house burn down. It's fine with me.' But then, of course, but what if your house is made of wood? And it's right next door to his house? What if the whole town is made of wood? Well, I think we'd all agree that the right thing to do is put out that fire first, and then say, 'What punishment is appropriate? How should we change the fire code? What needs to be done to make sure this doesn't happen in the future? How can we fire proof our houses?' That's where we are now. We have a fire going on."
Bernanke told Pelley that "fire" is still burning.
Asked if all the big banks the Fed regulates are solvent, Bernanke said, "I believe they are, yes. But we are doing a stress test right now, where we're looking at what the positions of the banks are under a tougher economic scenario than the one that we currently expect. And what we plan to do is to say how much capital would each bank need to be well capitalized. Not just solvent, but well capitalized, even in these more adverse scenarios."
"Are you committing in this interview, that you are not going to let any of these banks fail? That no matter what their balance sheet actually looks like, they are not gonna fail?" Pelley asked.
"They are not gonna fail," Bernanke said. "But what we can do, should it be necessary, is try to wind it down in a safe way."
I'm not talking about Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlesberger. The real Big Ben is Bernanke, and he thinks the recession could end this year. Maybe.
Selfish as it sounds, I'm equally concerned about how his words will affect the market in the near term. Still have a small position in Citigroup and started another small one in Wells Fargo on Friday. So far, so good. C, which closed at $1.78 on Friday, is going bonkers in Tokyo.
¥196 = $2.00
It's off the high of ¥212, but the roller coaster ride will continue for C shares in the morning.
Excerpt from the interview:
Bernanke told 60 Minutes we were close to a second Depression and he is determined to not let the major banks fail on his watch.
"One of the things that I think many people watching this interview don't understand, is why there are multiple bailouts, four bailouts of AIG, three bailouts of Citigroup. There is a sense that this is a band-aid approach, that we're not getting to the root of the problem," Pelley remarked.
"Well, part of the issue is that, you know, the economy has gotten a good bit worse. You know, the first part of the crisis was subprime and other assets that were toxic. Now, we're in a second phase, which is that the economy is very weak," he said. "So the economy's weakness has meant that some of the initial attempts to stabilize the banks haven't been enough, and we've had to do more."
"You know, Mr. Chairman, there are so many people outside this building, across this country, who say, 'To hell with them. They made bad bets. The wages of failure on Wall Street should be failure,'" Pelley remarked.
"Let me give you an analogy, if I might," Bernanke said. "If you have a neighbor, who smokes in bed. And he's a risk to everybody. If suppose he sets fire to his house, and you might say to yourself, you know, 'I'm not gonna call the fire department. Let his house burn down. It's fine with me.' But then, of course, but what if your house is made of wood? And it's right next door to his house? What if the whole town is made of wood? Well, I think we'd all agree that the right thing to do is put out that fire first, and then say, 'What punishment is appropriate? How should we change the fire code? What needs to be done to make sure this doesn't happen in the future? How can we fire proof our houses?' That's where we are now. We have a fire going on."
Bernanke told Pelley that "fire" is still burning.
Asked if all the big banks the Fed regulates are solvent, Bernanke said, "I believe they are, yes. But we are doing a stress test right now, where we're looking at what the positions of the banks are under a tougher economic scenario than the one that we currently expect. And what we plan to do is to say how much capital would each bank need to be well capitalized. Not just solvent, but well capitalized, even in these more adverse scenarios."
"Are you committing in this interview, that you are not going to let any of these banks fail? That no matter what their balance sheet actually looks like, they are not gonna fail?" Pelley asked.
"They are not gonna fail," Bernanke said. "But what we can do, should it be necessary, is try to wind it down in a safe way."
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Can we C clearly?
A scary proposition. You know, there once was a time when being involved with a bank stock was about as exciting as getting a kiss from your wig-wearing, prune-faced, fishy-lipped second-grade teacher. I somehow managed to be have well enough to avoid that fate. (Yes, Mrs. Ward, you were a great teacher, I came to learn. Effective as hell.)
Take Citigroup. Perky commercials. Well-branded. And sucky to the max after dropping to $1 a share from a high of $55. Then, a funny thing happened. The CEO said they made a profit for the first time in two years. Sure, never hurts to have Big Brother flushing your coffers with beeeeeeeeeeeellions of bucos. But after the CEO's positive remark (via memo), the stock rose to $1.40. Hate your penny stocks (ahem) or not, that's a 40% gain in one day. ONE DAY.
I hate gambling, but this is something worth watching. I don't anticipate touching C. Mara Der Hovanesian's piece asks about the "toxic assets" that Citigroup cannot rectify. But I will watch rather than guess. Playing C would be the equivalent of playing black jack in Vegas. Or worse?
One thing is probably, my opinion: The feds aren't about to let Citigroup go over the cliff. Does that mean shares will settle in at $2 or $5? Who knows. The optimist can yodel that major volume (1 billion shares) were traded on a huge up day. The cynic can murmur that this stock is completely forked.
I'm thinking "play" money is all right on C at $1. Just like Apple at $78, though trading C would seem more like trusting deadbeats and card sharks with hard-earned cash.
Take Citigroup. Perky commercials. Well-branded. And sucky to the max after dropping to $1 a share from a high of $55. Then, a funny thing happened. The CEO said they made a profit for the first time in two years. Sure, never hurts to have Big Brother flushing your coffers with beeeeeeeeeeeellions of bucos. But after the CEO's positive remark (via memo), the stock rose to $1.40. Hate your penny stocks (ahem) or not, that's a 40% gain in one day. ONE DAY.
I hate gambling, but this is something worth watching. I don't anticipate touching C. Mara Der Hovanesian's piece asks about the "toxic assets" that Citigroup cannot rectify. But I will watch rather than guess. Playing C would be the equivalent of playing black jack in Vegas. Or worse?
One thing is probably, my opinion: The feds aren't about to let Citigroup go over the cliff. Does that mean shares will settle in at $2 or $5? Who knows. The optimist can yodel that major volume (1 billion shares) were traded on a huge up day. The cynic can murmur that this stock is completely forked.
I'm thinking "play" money is all right on C at $1. Just like Apple at $78, though trading C would seem more like trusting deadbeats and card sharks with hard-earned cash.
Friday, October 12, 2007
Sketchy, shady street slime
Mr. Nice Guy within me thinks that hey, when Morgan Stanley downgraded Baidu yesterday, well, it was about reality and the possibility of BIDU's growth rate slowing, revenues tailing off, blah blah blah.
But Mr. Skeptic in me knows that Morgan Stanley laid off a bunch of employees yesterday, and in a further potentially profitable manuever, called for the downgrade to spur a selloff ... and inevitably, cheap shares to buy for the books.
Mr. Nice Guy within me also thinks that Citigroup's downgrade of Blue Nile (NILE) this morning is more of a possible downturn in online jewelry purchases, a byproduct of a slowing economy, indirectly related to foreclosures.
But Mr. Skeptic knows that it's a bunch of bullcrap, that Citigroup is simply trying to knock down NILE's shares to rake up cheap. With all the exposure to the mortgage meltdown, a whole lotta big boys out there are going to keep trying to scare the average investor out of his/her shares, all so they can get a stock like NILE down to 90 or 80 bucks when it's worth more than 100 right now.
Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me. But it won't scare me. Hell no. Still don't believe me? How about this: Deutsche Bank downgraded Citibank from buy to sell this morning, citing severe management ineptitude. You don't think Citigroup is desperate to do whatever it takes to maximize a profit?
I'm holding my NILE, you downgrading Citigroup bastards.
But Mr. Skeptic in me knows that Morgan Stanley laid off a bunch of employees yesterday, and in a further potentially profitable manuever, called for the downgrade to spur a selloff ... and inevitably, cheap shares to buy for the books.
Mr. Nice Guy within me also thinks that Citigroup's downgrade of Blue Nile (NILE) this morning is more of a possible downturn in online jewelry purchases, a byproduct of a slowing economy, indirectly related to foreclosures.
But Mr. Skeptic knows that it's a bunch of bullcrap, that Citigroup is simply trying to knock down NILE's shares to rake up cheap. With all the exposure to the mortgage meltdown, a whole lotta big boys out there are going to keep trying to scare the average investor out of his/her shares, all so they can get a stock like NILE down to 90 or 80 bucks when it's worth more than 100 right now.
Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me. But it won't scare me. Hell no. Still don't believe me? How about this: Deutsche Bank downgraded Citibank from buy to sell this morning, citing severe management ineptitude. You don't think Citigroup is desperate to do whatever it takes to maximize a profit?
I'm holding my NILE, you downgrading Citigroup bastards.
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