Crocs takes a bite out of my stubborn pride

What was once my pride and joy has turned into a fucking strikeout to the nth degree. I should've sold a chunk with profits, but I never envisioned this as a trade. I was married to this stock, breaking Rule #1. I sold so that I could avoid even more losses. The stock was in the mid-40s before today, then cost me a few hundred more dollars today in a slightly down market. It's Cramer's effect, telling everyone to get out, plus the fact that the Co has done little to impact the downtrend.

My portfolio gain is practically gone. But there's some relief in being out. I was once up 70% on this stock. Then I made the foolish move of doubling my position the day of earnings, and then poof! The stock cratered and I wouldn't sell, thinking it was a temporary overreaction. Today, I am forced to sell at a 30% loss. The notion of waiting it out is impossible at this point, not the way the stock keeps falling off one cliff and then another. It is impossible, at this point to fight the trend, to fend off the shorts and bears who hate this stock like no other, really.

All growth stocks trade with volatility, and the worst thing that can happen with taking big profits is that you make money. The best thing is that you can re-enter on dips. I am now at the point where I am going to trade/take profits in everything I every buy from this point. The only stocks I might leave a half-position long in are Apple and RIMM. Maybe. This was a costly lesson. My position was small, so it didn't break me, but it's still painful, a blow to my ego. That's a good thing.

Even Cramer warned people to avoid buying/trading on earnings. It was almost as if he was telling me don't buy more CROX, fool. This is another case where my personality traits work against me as an investor. I have patience. I have a high threshold of pain. I also have enough arrogance to imagine that my conclusion about a great stock will always trump anything the market brings. The truth is, it is still emotion that stunts my growth when it comes to making money in the market. Otherwise, I would be entirely mathematical about my profits and take then on every 7% (or 5% or 3%) decline. All my stubborness about holding stocks for a year to lower taxes is meaningless. CROX is a perfect example.

Just a week ago, CROX was near 75. Had I been prudent and put in a 7% stop loss, I would've stopped out at about 69.75 ... or actually, much less because the stock started tanking before the earnings report ,,, somewhere around 60, which is what I remember in the moments of the earnings report. It doesn't matter if there's major manipulation going on by the big boys. Can't fight it, can't stop it, and though I hate to admit it, Cramer is right. Better for us average Joes to get in and out quickly, before the big boys can leave us hung dry and holding the bag. Empty bags.

It wouldn't surprise me to see CROX rebound eventually, but it won't happen any time soon without positive news. Strong positive news. And though Georges Yared is probably right about CROX in his latest analysis, one thing he and a lot of bulls have never really grasped is the fact that this is the most tumultuous, volatile market perhaps ever. Long-term investors are better off staying away from streaming quotes and computers for weeks and months at a time, while traders are raking in profits on the long and short sides.

Up 70% (Crocs), up 57% (China Digital TV), up 49% (lululemon athletica), the least I could've done was take half the position off the table and bank it. Instead, my gains were minimal, losses were substantial (within small positions). We'll get our dips and our runs. Now I have to figure out what to do with my LULU and CHL.

Sound of Starbucks bulls is too frothy for me

I confess, with the leniency granted at every Starbucks I've ever patronized, I'm not worthy. I mean, to sit, sip an iced tea, eat my Subway foot-long and do some work for an hour, there's no place more suitable than Starbucks. And there's no place else that allows it, not in the area where I need to be every afternoon.

I would feel less guilt about my electricity use and prolonged stays if I actually invested in SBUX. But I don't. I want to see proof of revenues coming in from new streams, or rather, new locations. Otherwise, SBUX has a frothy price for my taste, without the gargantuan growth rate that I get from other younger, fresher stocks.

Smart Money Faceoff Review: Starbuck's Coffee

BULL CASE: Sharon Zackfia
Sales growth will continue to be solid due to new breakfast & lunch offerings and international expansion (profitability in China is better than U.S.) Store count is expected to double in 5 years.

BEAR CASE: Mark Coffeit
Discretionary spending is slowing, and “I can’t think of anything more discretionary than a morning cup of coffee.”

There's more, so check out the link. And there's also Georges Yared, one of my favorite bull market writers. He's been dead on right about Crocs and Apple, but he continues to push the "Go" button on SBUX.

Starbucks: It's coming back, and I know why

One dominating trait of successful growth companies is the development of a solid and contagious culture. Starbucks has a great and enviable culture; a culture fostered by Schultz, who considers all Starbucks staff "partners" rather than employees.

Maybe I'm just spoiled, but I'm used to seeing Yared write about numbers and offering strong evidence about a company's future growth. In this post, he offers ... a rah-rah story devoid of any empircal evidence whatsoever.

Think I'll stick to the unsweetened green ice tea. I can't stomach buying SBUX. Still.

Yared raises target on CROX to $100

Kick-ass distribution system. Weakening dollar. Global expansion. Global production. Just some of the reasons why I love CROX, and the same reasons why Georges Yared is raising his target for the Co to $100.

Yared: New price target is $100

The new products will match the current margin structure, which is important. I estimate Crocs will earn $2.00 per share on revenues of $835 million for 2007, followed by revenues of $1.12 billion and earnings per share of $2.60 for 2008. I will admit right now, these numbers are conservative, very conservative. Many investors and analysts are working the Crocs model to figure a preliminary 2009 estimate. I believe Crocs can hit revenues of $1.55 billion and earnings per share of $3.40.

With this incredible growth in front of Crocs, coupled with a solid new product line and its existing product line selling magnificently, my 12-month price target is $100. The company can easily support a 30 price earnings multiple of 2009's $3.40 earnings.

Mr. Yared has not been wrong about CROX and he isn't wrong now. I'm looking to add more shares before earnings.

Yared likes Apple at $225

Georges Yared has been a king among bulls in this market, and his recognition of the best of breed has been flawless. Today, he says AAPL is heading to 225.

Yared: Apple to Hit $225?

Fiscal year September 30, 2008 consensus calls for revenues of $29.7 billion and earnings per share at $4.48. I believe both numbers are going higher as Apple is in the midst of a major product upgrade cycle with the iPod and the Mac, and of course, the iPhone is just getting started. The iPhone unit sales will be the pleasant news as Apple recently upped production for calander 2007 from 3.6 million units to a minimum of 4.8 million units. The number was announced before any European or Asian deals have been struck.

Latest takes on iTouch & Apple Inc.

Walter Mossberg is the guru of technology media. Well, he looks the part, at least. Here's his take on the iTouch.

Mossberg: Apple's iPod Touch Is a Beauty of a Player Short on Battery Life

Here's what Apple bull Georges Yared wrote today. (Hint: target $210.)

Yared: Apple (AAPL): Last chance to buy under $150?

I almost dove in and got more AAPL today, even at this expensive price. But I'm already overweight in Apple, so I went with a swing trade on LULU. AAPL may outperform LULU in the long term, but at least I'm smart enough now to hold my Apple shares instead of selling them. I did that back at 92. Never again.

Apple still sweet

Yesterday, I tagged AAPL, one of my favorite stocks, as a 'strong buy.' For whatever reasons, the market had lagged in AAPL, up a mere 9% off its recent low of 111. Meanwhile, tigers like RIMM and CROX were skyrocketing up over their moving averages.

The market finally came back to Apple today. The stock went from an early low of 121 and closed at 127.57. The stock is still in a healthy position, now trading at its 13- and 50-day moving averages. One of Apple's most fervent bulls, Georges Yared, offered his perspective on the stock over the weekend.

Yared: Apple (AAPL): The psychology of trading the stock

The psychology Yared refers to has everything to do with the way fund managers handle losses and profits. AAPL the stock was the big boys' punching bag, used and abused while retail longs wondered what the hell was going on. Smart longs didn't give the roller-coaster ride a second thought. Traders and investors took advantage of the big-time dip to 111. Now the big boys are parading back in, just my guess.

No complaining here. But Yared is right. The street does what it wants when it wants. And Apple is still a great company, mortgage massacre be damned.

All Hail AAPL and CROX!

I've written a lot about two A grade stock picks, Apple and Crocs. But instead of touting them as great buys at these current levels, I'll let the Yoda of the bull market do that.

Georges Yared writes eloquently today about the two companies. Both obliterated Q2 earnings estimates, raised guidance and have more outstanding products coming through the pipelines.

With these two stocks, I definitely can sleep at night. I can even sleep through the market. There are no two products I touch more of day and night than my old PowerBook and my Crocs Caymans.

Checkfree buyout means Yared strikes gold — again

Sorry if this reads like a broken record, but credit is due again to the Yoda of the bull market.

Georges Yared wrote up 25 stocks for the next 25 years in a wonderful series at bloggingstocks.com a few months back. Since then, there's been nothing but upside for his well-selected companies. The latest to get bought out is Checkfree (CKFR), which will be sold to Fiserve for $4.4 billion. It's the third of his 25 to be acquired already.

Read his analysis and enjoy.

To our friends in Minneapolis

I've only been to Minneapolis once and it was serene, folksy and beautiful. The taste of hot apple cider on a cool October night is something we don't get in the Pacific. One thing we share with folks there, though, is a sense of community and ohana.

That's why it struck home when the news about the collapsed bridge broke. One of my favorite stock writers, Minnesota resident Georges Yared, writes eloquently about missing the tragedy by just 35 minutes. My heart goes out to the folks in Minneapolis, as well as my prayers.

Yared sees CROX at $80 in 12 months

Whether his brilliant pieces show up on Blogging Stocks or Seeking Alpha, Georges Yared delivers the goods.

The Yoda of the bull market brings truth in the face of doubters, bears and shorts all the same. Today, he wrote about CROX's blowout earnings report at Seeking Alpha. Yared also raised his target price to $80 for the next year.

He hasn't been wrong yet.

Also, here's a link to Zacks Equity Research's "Bull of the Day" piece. A quick excerpt:

We maintain our Buy rating and increase our target price from $54 to $70.

I wonder what the time frame is for Zacks' target price.

Pupule Paul is long CROX.

Yared knocks it out of the park with Crocs, Kyphon

Georges Yared speaks.

You might want to listen. The Yoda of the bull market rang this week two more stocks he has put on a pedestal for a long time: Crocs and Kyphon.

In his analysis of Crocs' earnings report, Yared points to the Co's marvelous distribution system and stupendous margins. For me, the fact that there are still haters of Crocs' stock and products means that short interest — currently 32% — will still be around to boost the stock to infinity and beyond.

Kyphon, one of Yared's 25 Stocks for the Next 25 Years, is the third from that group to be bought out in the past month. The medical device company will be sold to Medtronic for $71 per share. When Yared selected KYPH on May 14, the stock was at $45. That's a nice gain of 57%.

Yoda has struck again.

Yared likes Apple at $225

And he won't be wrong. If he is, that would be a first, at least in a long time.

Georges Yared has been absolutely, precisely correct on Apple for quite some time. Same with Crocs. While reasoning bears concluded during Q2 and even Q1 that Apple had no room for growth, that its stock was overpriced, Yared broke down the numbers. He continually produced reliable estimations.

And now, with Mac sales accelerating and iPhone popularity taking off, Yared foresees AAPL at $225. I'm not about to argue with him.

Yared also sees massive institutional buying en masse for Amazon. Is that right? AMZN beyond $86?

Both Apple and Amazon are A- picks for me, but even I can't be that optimistic. Or can I?

Disclaimer: Pupule Paul is a tiny bit long AAPL.

Soap opera has Starbucks in the middle

Starbucks luvs Hershey?

PepsiCo luvs Starbucks?

What kind of wild romance is in the air at that coffee shop anyway? Are truffles and chocolate-covered coffee beans all it takes to win the heart of Starbucks?

Starbucks broke a bottom-feeding trend last week, closing above $27 for the first time since June 20. If Thursday's action, which included a mid-day high of $28.17, can be sustained this week, sideliners may have missed a chance to get SBUX on the cheap. The stock plunged to $25.22 on June 25 and traded sideways until Thursday.

Thursday's volume was also the strongest since the stock sold off big on June 21. Even the Yoda of growth stocks, Georges Yared, has been pounding the table for Starbucks.

I could do without truffles and chocolate-covered coffee beans, but who am I to say anything about whimsical, whirlwind romance? After the rough patch SBUX has endured in recent months, a little lovin' never hurt.

Disclaimer: Pupule Paul has no position in SBUX or PEP.

Yared bullish on DJ, Apple and Crocs

Georges Yared has been dead-on right about the bull market and its high-fueled growth stocks as much as anyone.

That's why, when he wrote yesterday about the Dow's next march, the one to 15,000, he maintains that there are at least six stocks that will help lead the run. Two of them aren't even part of the Dow.

One is Apple, which he has been bullish on for a long time. The other is Crocs, which he's been very high on since February. Yared notes that the Co's positive numbers make CROX a buy at current levels.

With short interest at 32 percent — shortsqueeze.com has updated figures while Yahoo has old information — it's more than just basic statistics that could propel CROX out of the sideways action of the past two months. Earnings for Q2 will be released on August 2.

Disclaimer: Pupule Paul is slightly long AAPL and CROX.

Cool Apple in so many ways

Maybe this is an undeniable sign of a bubble.

Comparing a stock to a work of art — no, just considering a stock such a glorious creation of beauty — has to be grounds for insanity. And yet, that's what AAPL is. From the PowerBook I first bought three years ago, to the Apple computers my old company bought for us back in 1993, all the way to the iPod and iTunes, and now, the iPhone, what else can possibly counter any pro-Apple argument?

It's not even just about the revenues from these products. It's also about the Cool Factor. The Effective Factor. Once I got that PowerBook, my days with Hitachi laptops were long, long gone. I've never had stupid freeze-ups and glitches with my PowerBook as I did with the Hitachi and another since-forgotten laptop from a generic has-been company.

No, I don't like paying a pretty penny for my Apple products, but in the end, they are worth every penny. Quality is worth that extra cost. I'm not alone in this belief, obviously.

Whether Apple climbs to $200, as longtime AAPL bull Georges Yared argues, is not really an issue for me. In fact, when I look at my mock portfolios, three of them are filled only with AAPL stock. Sort of like a DRP program. No matter the swoon of summer 2006. No matter the minor blips of a few failed products. The power of the Co and the stock are substantial.

It is as close as we can get to the proverbial money in the bank, especially for those of us who bought early in the year on the anticipation of the iPhone's success. All of Apple's innovation and commitment to Cool are unmatched, really. It doesn't matter whether they are the originators of a concept. They know how to take it and turn it into ubercool.

A $200 stock? That would make new lovers of art near and far.

Disclaimer: Pupule Paul owned Apple at $93, foolishly sold at $92, and re-entered at $122 with a tiny slice of Apple pie. He is truly humbled.