FAS vs FAZ

12:10 am (Hawaii) Sure enough, the market is tanking this week as Europe looks typically frazzled and anemic, and banksters are taking their time diving in to save their underlings across the pond. It's just a matter of time. Until they actually get the fiat printing presses humming 24/7/365, they'll let the market tank deeper and deeper. All the better to scoop up cheap stocks. In the meantime, they churn traders out, shaking out all the money in their wallets and pockets through pure volatility (and margin calls).

I'm glad I stayed out for the past week or two. Work has been to busy anyway, but there's a peace that comes with living life almost normally rather than fret over the whims of the indices, the ups and downs and ups and downs of FAS and FAZ and gold and silver.

FAZ's run to 48 today was a stunner to see on the chart when I finally let myself look at it a few minutes ago. I didn't think it would trade out of its range (35-44) this soon. I'm not tempted one bit to nibble here. No amount of occupying will save the fractional reserve banking system in the long run, but that's still a ways off. No way the banksters relinquish power anytime soon, but I sure think FAZ eventually rockets to 81 again, then 100. I'll wait for a retest of 35 first.

FAZ daily

Quite the ride

FAZ daily

Monster volume yesterday (Thursday)

FAZ daily

Time for a dip in the 44 & below pool?

FAS daily

The recent run has been bushwacked, hasn't it?

FAS daily

That's a whole lotta bailing out of a sinking ship

FAS daily

This can't be going to 52 or 44, can it? 

FAS daily

Maybe yesterday was the blowoff sell day to end

this drop, but it sure doesn't feel like it

DGP daily

Freaky view of this gold 2x ETF

DGP daily

Simpler view isn't necessarily more bullish at all

AGQ daily

Quite ugly, but clean in a sorta neat way

VXX daily

Due for another mini dip? Charts at this point

are nothing but visual candy because Euro

monetary chaos is out of control

I remain completely seated and satiated in the bleachers. No playing in this farce of a market. 

In and Out

10:03 am (Hawaii) Dow -391 (-3.5%) to 1,733, Nas -82.52 (-3.3%) to 2,455, S&P 500 down 37.17 (-3.2%) to 1,129. The move lower has been extreme, even with the late rally. I got out of my modest position in FAZ at 71.14 for a profit of roughly $6/share. Didn't sell above 74, 73 or 72. FAZ was hovering at 72 until the last few minutes of the session, but the selling pressure has been quite dramatic in the final two hours. No question there will be more buyers of FAZ for a long time to come. But near term, I was fortunate to catch the tail end of this big run. After gaining 14% yesterday, another 9% today (when I sold), it is likely time for a bounce in the market, especially the financials. Everything (except the US dollar) is so severely oversold.

I won't play against that kind of rubber-band snapback potential right now. But I will scale back into FAZ, hopefully at the right time in the next session or two (or three). I really would like to hold a position for weeks and months as the banksters tumble, but positioning is key in this kind of volatility. FAZ couldn't stay above 73 (near-term high) so I'll wait for a nicer entry point.

As for everything else, they all sucked. FAZ was my lone bastion of comfort. I'm not interested in trading TVIX or VXX these days. Maybe I should be. AGQ (165) and DGP (61.13) are above their lows of the day.

The Apple effect is golden

Does someone here want an iPad?

7:35 am (Hawaii) You can probably remember the sight of AAPL going up dramatically - from 80 to 200 in one year, for example - only to sell off drastically. You made a great realized or paper profit, wondering what was the justification for a selloff. Sometimes, it was about profit-taking. Sometimes, it was about hedge funds on the verge of collapse, having to raise case (from profitable trade) immediately.

I think gold (down 2.1% to 1,776/oz) and silver (down 4.1% to 39.15) are selling off in this down session for that reason. The hedgies are desperate to raise cash, and they realize they can always go back into gold, particularly, at another time. I woke up a few minutes ago to find the Dow Jones down 255 points. Not a shock since futures were down more than 100 points when I hit the sack last night.

What is a surprise is that AAPL is at 408 after hitting an all-time high of 411. The only news I found in a brief search is that 1 in 6 Americans are now using an electronic reading device. I suppose that's bullish for AAPL and AMZN. But trading in this cut-throat environment means there will eventually - later today? - be immense profit-taking in those two. Last one out, rotten egg.

My Regular watch list is 20% green. TVIX, EDZ, FAZ (+8.7%), ZSL, TZA, VXX ... it looks like 2008 or '09. CMG, GMCR, TLT, AAPL and LULU are also up more than 2%. SBUX is 1.9% up.

My Metals watch list is basically the same, 21% green. FAZ, ZSL, SCO, are the few leaders. ZSL is up 6.6% and DZZ is up 1.8%. Silver continues to be shorted by the banksters, probably the same banksters who claim to be long gold. They are stuck with these immense short positions (JPM), so what else would they do?

I might actually turn on the TV this morning, but they were chattering about Greek default and yadayada yesterday. It's probably more of the same Euro debt crisis/contagion fear. US Dollar up 1.5% to 77.78 and Euro is down 1.1% to 1.36. The FOMC meets on the 21st (Wednesday). I do not want to be extended in any way until after that meeting. Staying all cash for now.

There goes AAPL, back up to 409.90.

Photo: MKT 300 Rodgers

Boy, that was some debt ceiling rally

10:04 am (Hawaii) Again, I will remind all that Scott Blier got it right, forecasting a "sell the news" downturn on the debt ceiling compromise. There were times when the market moved up on bad news, but this past week, it has absorbed a lousy debt ceiling deal and an unending litany of declining numbers in the US economy. Today's 512-point plunge in the Dow (-4.3%) is exceeded only by the Nasdaq (-136, -5.1%) and S&P (-60, -4.8%).

It was Cortez, the contrarian, who declared yesterday that he went long the S&P. He could right. Just off by a day or a week. The Dow has been down eight of the last nine sessions. The weight and breadth today may be, finally, the capitulation it needs to soak in all of the bullshit of Capitol Hill legislation, Eurozone austerity* and real price for real stocks. I suppose that could also mean that gold is a real go-to safe haven, down fractionally today, and that silver is still a trading tool despite far less speculation and volatility in recent months.

Silver traded down as low as 38.10, and is now at 38.62 after hours (-7.4%). Whatever I think of the powers that be, the spot price is stuck in this range, unable to stay above 42, and I'm waiting for a chance to get more physical at 35. If the onslaught continues overnight and tomorrow morning, 32 might be in play very soon. However, a catastrophe scenario in silver is unlikely in my book. There's too much demand in gold globally with the US Dollar stinking up banks near and far. Silver will always tag along sooner or later, so I don't see silver below 32 anytime soon.

If this turns out to be the one-day beatdown to precious metals that was necessary after the recent runup, fine. Silver had run from 34 to 42, so consolidation here above 38 is not a bad thing at all. Gold had run from 1600 two Sundays ago to 1683 today, a 5% gain in just 11 days. In gold! Astounding. I still like 1625 as a bargain price.

Though my small positions in DGP, XG and GSVC were beaten to a pulp today, I didn't sell. It's too late to sell, and I've got enough dry powder to load up if and when the momentum shifts. Whatever happens in Euro land is going to happen. If it's austerity, the pain will be immediate, but recovery will come sooner. If it's more "kicking the can down the road," the pain multiplies at a later date.

On the bright side . . .

• I'm glad I didn't buy more physical yesterday. A pullback was due, whether by natural market price discovery or puppet mastery from the CME mafia.

• I'm content with this small allotment of exposure to miners (XG). I was overconfident when I bought in above 14, knowing full well that miners are underowned by hedge funds, and that they suffer severe knockdowns that parallel the market more than gold and silver.

• I'm okay with not buying anything today. FAZ kept rising, pausing, rising, pausing and I never got a good feel for what was next. It's not easy trying to buy in when something is up 8%, then 10%, then 12%, then 14 freaking percent. Same with ZSL, though I feel far more jittery about holding ZSL for any period longer than an hour than FAZ. The CME mafia could back off overnight, let Asia take control, and silver could be back over 40 within hours or minutes.

At least with FAZ, we know banks from California to Athens are screwed and the worst screwing is yet to come when real estate brings its second wave of disaster.

Down the road, it's the real estate bubble in China that concerns me, but that's quite some time away. The Chinese are adept at manipulating growth, doing things that would be unheard of in the US.

It was interesting to see profit-taking in ZSL, FAZ and other hot movers today. Always in the final hour, more so in the final 20 minutes. But buyers kept scooping up shares at day-high prices. Even VXX was up nearly 5% today after taking a breather yesterday when traders took big profits home.

All in all, it's always best to be ahead of the curve, not chasing the crowd. So I hesitate to add more ZSL or FAZ at this point. (DUST, the 2x gold miner bear ETF, is tempting, but could bounce hard any day.) Anything up more than 14% will need a pit stop, rest time and fuel. This might be a good time to step away from the market and dig around for some physical, just a small amount to average in. After all, ugly as today was, tomorrow could just be the start of a new run. Every central bank loves a big discount on shiny metals.

Respect the action

6:26 am (Hawaii) It doesn't matter what I think of the CME mafia or the obvious lack of conviction on the part of paper silver traders today. All I know is spot silver just ripped higher after AGQ hovered at 208-210 for more than an hour. That left my small position in ZSL rising to 13.85, then to 13.49. I got out at 13.51 for a slim profit (24¢). Break out the harmonica, I'm feeling rich!

With the kabuki actors on Capitol Hill going through procedural stuff now, and the public stuff to start in 2 1/2 hours, none of that is exactly bearish for precious metals. I don't expect a meteor shot for gold or silver, either. But the downside for PMs should be over for today, as Brother Turd Ferguson alluded to in his chat room. The only thing that would hurt PMs is a surprise agreement or delay announcement.

The last time I paid this much attention to a pseudo hedge pairing was May of 2009, when the flash crash hit and my AAPL shares got kneecapped. At the same time, my miniscule position in VXX almost kept me at break-even through the chaos. It was something to behold. By the time I got out of VXX, it had lost most of its gains, but AAPL had made up most of its losses, so I was both exhausted and relieved. I was on the road at the time, so that was one crazy early morning in a hotel room.

Right now, XG is showing signs of life, down "only" 2.7% (35¢) after dipping 75¢ earlier. The last big dip, just a week or two ago, took shares to 12.00 intraday. Today's low was 12.35, and it's now at 12.75.

ZSL is back to 12.58, but I'll be an observer from here to the bell. I'll be away from the computer doing some work, and that's probably for the best ... unless a deal is reached in DC and the market takes off without me. Is Scott Blier right? Will the market actually do the opposite of what most of us expect? Will it sell into any news of a debt ceiling deal?

As for rare earths, the big boys were sky high and not playable when SHZ showed some signs of catching up. Ultimately, it lacked staying power and couldn't stay above 3.25 for long. I stayed out and now it's at 3.12, still up nicely (+1%) for the day so far. Chasing is almost always a sure route to pain.

Not quite minus squared

9:37 am (Hawaii) Market is down (Dow -99.83/-0.8%, Nas -31.77/-1.2%, S&P -13.09/-1.0%), but it's not convincing of an onrushing disaster, either. Dollar is up 6/10th of a percentage point, crude oil down again (SCO up 1%). The Metals list is 27% green, 73% red with a majority on the plus side being bear plays. But the key is low volume up and down. Maybe it's a respite of sorts and Monday begins a bloodbath. Or maybe this market will remain choppy, indignant and petulant.

ZSL is up 5.3% to 19.46. DUST, QID, gold bears GLL and DZZ are among the leaders on the list. REE, MCP and AVL have kept rare earths near the top.

Meanwhile, the finnies faded. Three were in the green in the opening minutes today, but now all are in the red. NBG, which got up to 1.43 yesterday on the positive news of austerity psuedo-measures, is down 7% to 1.32. Pulling back is no surprise, but I thought there might be continued momentum after profit-taking. It's tough to make it when you're a bankster.

Silver plays are getting minced again, not a shock. AGQ down 5.4% to 161.54, EXK (-5.2%), SLW (-4.3%), PAAS (-3%), GPL (-4.5%), SVM (-5.1%) are among the bruised silver miners. XG (-2%), NUGT (-5.3%), GG (-3.7%), GDXJ (-3.1%), DGP (-3%) are among the gold plays getting stomped. DGP's descent is unusual; it's normally not a big mover up or down. It's my lone play, a small position, and Spot Gold has room to fall, maybe to 1450. Not fun, but the puppet masters will do what they deem necessary to justify implementation of the next bailout/quantitative easing/big lie.

My Regular watch list is 26% green, 74% red. AAPL is down 1.6% to 325.95. TVIX (+7.5%) and VXX (+3.7%) are up big, as is QID (+3.5%). No buyers, and it seems some hedge funds have emptied out. It's nice to rest easy on summer vacation.

It gets interesting on the Regular list. CMG (+1.1%), RLOC (+0.8%), CSTR (+0.3%) are up. Then it's red, red, red, red ...

Dressing up

12 pm (Hawaii) So is this it? Has the end-of-month/end-of-quarter window dressing begun? When I hit the sack around 5 or 6 am Hawaii time (noonish Eastern), it seemed the market was going to drift in small currents forever. Of course, nothing stays the same in the market for long. The market went bozo bullish as I slept, sending 75% of my watch list to the green side after being inept earlier.

DJIA 12,279 (+0.67%), Nasdaq 2,756 (+0.96%), S&P 500 1,319 (+0.71%). Again, volume wasn't impressive, but it was about 20% higher in the "axis" of stocks, AAPL. Monday was a low in volume for the year. Tuesday saw more action. Wednesday is the 30th of March and Thursday is the end of the month. I'd say odds are 70% that window dressing has begun. By that math, the edge is 40% (70 vs. 30), but am I willing to indulge myself with 40% of my roll in play? Or to be risk-addicted about it, place some bets that allow for 40% swing down? Yes to the former and no the latter. We're still somewhat toppy here and the chances of a) a selloff after window dressing and b) negative news about QE3 would easily send the market down the mountain like a wild eagle pushing goats off the ledge.

For now, however, just about everything finished green today, and big on the win side. WNR gained 1.9% to 17.10 after being in red early. Le Fly wins again on his call for oil refiners to slice through any market turmoil. He's right.

AAPL, which sold off to a hair above 346 early, is at 351.30 in afterhours trading. My position in AAPL at the end of last week was opened at 346.75 and I sold at 350.65, which clearly is a range within the larger range (326 to 365). There are too many AAPL bulls who want this stock to lift, for the PE to hit 25 or 27 or 30, and that would be fair. But with the slowdown due to Japan's tragedy, I really don't see any eye-popping sales numbers in the near term. Demand huge, but customers will have to wait. AAPL will be fine long term, but it just won't hit 400 as soon as I or anyone else had expected.

This is not a bad thing. I could buy at 345 (mid-point of the larger range) and sell at 350 over and over again without extreme concern over risk. I didn't do it today, but it's there. What other stock are you going to ride as comfortably? CHGS? LULU?

CHGS 3.54 (+20.4%), MCP 60.10 (+8.3%), CLNE 15.20 (+4.8%), LULU 89.37 (4.8%), CMG 268.00 (+3.9%), RLOC 20.55 (+3.2%), VLO 30.50 (+3.2%), AMZN 174.62 (+3.1%), EXK 9.28 (+3.1%), YZC 34.50 (+2.9%). It goes on and on. Huge gains for momo stocks. Silver plays. Even coal (YZC). China is in heat. US stocks hot, and that's with crude oil up. UCO is at 54.78 (+1.7%).

It almost didn't matter what people bought today. The bull gored every bear in sight. Big losers on my watch list were TVIX 37.49 (-5.5%), EDZ 19.12 (-3.3%), DG 30.52 (-3.1%), TZA 36.84 (-3%), VXX 29.95 (2.7%), QID 51.65 (-1.9%). Also OPEN 102.90 (-1.3%). OPEN's huge run had to stop for a breather at some point.

I wouldn't be shocked if the market reverses before tomorrow's opening bell. There's still time for hedgies to take it down fast and still re-enter before the end of the month. Unlikely, but entirely possible. I'll be waiting for a unlikely discount on my favorite plays with 100% loaded gunpowder.

Monday bull party

(11:30 am, Hawaii) Talk about complete melt-up. At one point, when I wasn't sleeping through the session, my watch list was 83% green. That's basically bullish to the extreme since the other 17% are mostly bear plays.

DJIA +1.5%, Nasdaq +1.8%, S&P 500 +1.5%.

Volume wasn't great in AAPL (14.7M), but the 2.7% run from 330.67 (Friday) to 339.73 (afterhours today) is incredible. The 100-day moving average was tested three days in a row (Wed/Thur/Fri) before bouncing today. Will the 50-day MA (346+) prove to be a ceiling?

Everything with a pulse move up, from BIDU (+3%) and GOOG (+2.6%) to Japan (EWJ (+2.2%). The yen softened; FXY slightly down (-0.4%).

LVS gained 6.4%, while other recent gainers like OPEN (+2.4%) and HAIN (+2.5%) rose.

Precious metals roared. SLW gained 5.9% to 42.25 (afterhours). EXK +5.1% to 9.62, PAAS +3.6%, PHY +2.4%, SLV +3.2%. NGD +3.4% and GLD +0.7%. Great day for the metal bugs. SLW and EXK ranked second and third on my list of gainers.

WNR, Le Fly's favorite oil refiner play, gained 4.4% to 21.59. UCO gained 1.1% (53.33).

Big losers were TVIX (-15.4%, 44.85), VXX (-7.5%, 32.70), TZA (-7.1%), EDZ (-5.1%) and QID (-3.6%). PSUN also sold off again, down 1.9% to 3.62. C also fell 1.6% to 4.43. Interestingly, X dropped 0.6%.

I'm content to stay in cash here until the puzzle is solved. Which is probably never going to happen. AAPL is my vehicle of preference, and if the runway clears for a flight to new highs, I'll get a ticket. Until then, this is a range-bound titan, from 326 to 360, and there is money to be made in that space. Hat's off to those who bought at 330 on Friday.

Bloomberg: Tokyo Electric says Fukushima fuel rods damaged, leak to sea (Mar 21 2011)
Reuters: Oil lifted by Mideast unrest, Libya conflict (Mar 21 2011)
Bloomberg: Japan futures, nuclear stocks advance as reactor crisis eases (Mar 21 2011)
Business Times: AT&T's big deal lifts Wall St (Mar 21 2011)
AP: Developments in Japan's disasters, nuclear crisis (Mar 21 2011)
Business Insider: What about the Plutonium MOX? (Mar 21 2011)
The Guardian: Google accuses China of interfering with Gmail system (Mar 21 2011)

One night stands and ex-sex

2:18 am (Hawaii). Never had sex with an ex. Not ashamed to say it either. But if you can deal with ex-sex, you probably rode TVIX and VXX and anything else that saw the light of day yesterday, only to dump it before the close for a nice bit of pocket change. Or, as in the case of Jon Najarian, it was his most profitable day of the year.

I envy that. I also was overpowered by the uncertainty of the globe, of people delving into things that probably are a foot or two beyond our comprehension and reach. But we keep trying in the name of knowledge and self-sufficiency, or at the very least, just as an admission that we are powerless to end our dependency on crude oil, nuclear energy and coal.

Premarket started about 18 minutes ago without my presence and 55% of my watch list is green, 25% red and 20% unchanged (or untraded). Futures are bright green, mostly in energy and commodities and, yes, precious metals. Copper (+2.9%), palladium (+2.2%), soybean oil (+3.1%), oats (+2.2%), rough rice (2.3%), soybeans (+2.8%), wheat (+3.2%), cotton (2.5%) and more. I don't trade this stuff, but it says something about the climate of the market right now.

DJIA (+0.03%), S&P 500 (+0.02%) and Nasdaq 100 (+0.03%) are barely positive. Crude oil is up 2.4% (99.72). Without catching up on the news, it appears that stability has returned in moderation so far.

It's been a long time since I've seen so much of my watch list green. UCO (50.02, +2.6%) has barely traded. Same with EXK (8.65, +2.2%) and SLW (40.45, +2%), but they're at the top of the list. WNR, the oil refiner, hasn't traded yet. So much bullishness, and yet VXX is up slightly (+0.2%).

AAPL is down a fraction (344.62). NFLX continues to soar (222.36, +2.4%) off yesterday's Goldman Sachs upgrade. The second AAPL gets an upgrade, I won't be surprised if it rockets.

Somebody's lying

Update, 3:20 am (Hawaii). AAPL down on parts supplier issues (Japan, Foxconn)? AAPL trading at 342.11 (-1%).

It's probable that NFLX is simply exploding on another major short squeeze. It's probable that even an analyst upgrade wouldn't fuel AAPL as explosively.

Just minutes before the opening bell and NFLX is atop my watch list (222.05, +2.3%). FCX (52.53, +2.1%) is second and IPI, LULU and EXK follow. UCO, NGD, PAAS, TVIX, QID, SLW ... what a weird mix of leaders. A dysfunctional combination, indeed.

Meanwhile, PSUN is cratering (-9.3%) and SBUX (-2%) and LVS (-1.9%) are also at the bottom of my watch list.

Update, 3:31 am (Hawaii). AAPL sinking in early trading, trying to stay above 341. Support at 338, then 326. Market is slightly down, but 62% of my watch list is green.

QID is up 1.4%. SLW had been above 40 in premarket, but is now below. Smells like a BS premarket that will sell off early today, but I'm not putting any money where my mouth is.

Update, 3:39 am (Hawaii). OPEN exploding to the top of my watch list, now 90.60 (+2.9%). Why so high? Merriman Capital downgraded OPEN while raising estimates. Yeah, that sounds forked up.

EXK was close to the top of the list, pushing above 8.70 and I considered a small position. But within a minute, it puked and fell to 8.55. Roller coaster puke.

Update, 3:49 am (Hawaii). OPEN tailing off a bit from its high (91.63). 50% retrace would bring it to 89.82, but market is directionless right now, tough call. With LULU up 2.4% and GMCR up 2.5%, it's clear that daytraders are playing the momentum, probably until lunch hour at the latest. Don't get stuck holding the bag!

UCO climbed above 50, finally. TVIX still robust (52.80, +2.3%) while VXX stinks it up in comparison (+1.2%).

AAPL bounced off 339.06, now 340.54. Expecting a test of 338 at some point.

Update, 4:10 am (Hawaii). Interesting disconnect in copper futures (+2.5%) and FCX (-0.3%). EXK scared the crap out of me when it plunged from 8.72 to 8.50 in a minute or two, but has since rallied to 8.79. That's a heck of a scalp for anybody who stepped in. I've been waiting for a pullback to start a position, but it refuses to dip.

AAPL held up at support (338), but still on thin ice. Apparently, though the key parts will still be built for iPhones and iPads, the slowdown is enough to bump AAPL this low and possibly lower. No breaks for this stock.

My watch list is now 68% green, 32% red, and the market is barely underwater. It would be surprising if the market didn't finish green today. Even without AAPL leading the way.

Silver is a temptress

5:21 am (Hawaii). That didn't go so good. I opened a little position in EXK at 8.75 after it broke through the earlier HOD. It went gradually to 8.85, looked toppy and I nearly put in a stop loss sell order to insure it wouldn't lose money. Then it proceeded to tank all the way to 8.33 or so on the EU Energy chief's negatoid outlook on Japan's nuclear crisis, as if we needed to hear it from him.

I stuck by my technicals and waited out the downturn. And waited. And waited. Eventually, EXK bounced right up to 8.66 before running out of gas. I sold at 8.55 after missing 8.59. A small loss, but it could've been worse had I sold at the bottom. The percentage of loss equals less than half of 1 percent of my trading funds. It was a sight to behold during the drop. When Nasdaq showed -1.24% (after nearly getting back to even earlier), that was a holee sugar moment. The volume is muted on my TV so I had no idea what was going on until the drop resembled a sheer cliff and I followed the subtitles on the TV.

Even in a market as sick as this, I lost my discipline and did not sell at my original (mental) stop loss, which was 8.77. But as it dropped, I talked myself into changing the plan. Too confident or optimistic. The only smart thing I did was wait it out.

iPad w/ art sold on eBay

Update, 5:54 am (Hawaii). AAPL off the cart. The EU Energy chief's speech resulted in a mini-flash crash for a LOT of stocks, including AAPL, which sold off to 332+ briefly. Shares rallied to 338, but are now down to 334. Can AAPL close the day at support (338)? Or maybe 326 is closer than expected.

6:06 am (Hawaii). Nasdaq now down 1.44%, low of the day. AAPL back at 332.83 while TVIX is up 12.3%, VXX up 6.2% and QID up 4%. EXK well off its highs at 8.50. UCO off its HOD at 49.28.

Also, EDX up 3.9% and WNR up 2.8% (to 16.51). My wish list has reversed again with only 28% green now. OPEN is in the red (87.99) after momo traders dumped it at the HOD.

9:05 am (Hawaii). TVIX ran up to 64+ as I slept. Woh! Yesterday's close (51.62) and today's HOD (64.72) puts the 50% retrace at 58.17. TVIX has pulled back and is now 57.99. Stochastics are at 30 and climbing again, though MACD signal and line are negative.

During that plunge between 2 and 2:15 pm (Eastern), AAPL sunk to 326, the other support line I mentioned earlier. That level held and AAPL is now back at 332. I haven't even examined where AAPL's support would be if 326 cracked. Let's see... looks like it would be 300, though that dip extended as low as 297 intraday during that session. There's already been an Apple analyst on CNBC who expects shares to fall to the 200-day moving average: 298. AAPL is already hovering at its 100-day MA.

9:43 am (Hawaii). 17 minutes to the closing bell. TVIX giving way, finally, after gaining as much as 16+%. Traders taking their TVIX profits. Easy money? I don't think so. Riding TVIX requires 10 or 20 barf bags per trip. The spread, the pinball action ... completely Tazer-ish. Now at 59.30, dipping below 30 on stochastics and the MACD line and signal, which were positive, are now turning downward.

11:19 am (Hawaii). Talk about percolating pot of bleaah. I dared myself, in some way, to enter TVIX after eyeballing it for a long time. I got a decent price, 59.99, with the thought that it could run to 61+, especially after hitting 64+ earlier in the session. What I did not know is that the power company in Japan had already announced that it was close to completing a new power line to one of the failing nuclear reactors in Fukushima.

But TVIX ran, apparently because the same company soon after said that it couldn't pinpoint a time when the power line would be ready. So TVIX ran to 60.62 before the bell. I thought, again, about placing a stop-loss order. I've never followed or traded TVIX after the bell. But I didn't sell. Shares stayed at 60.50 or so for several minutes, but eventually slid below 60. I decided to get out, but pressure was to the downside, and with a hugely momo ETF like this, I almost had to stop staring at the price action. All over the place. I put in the sell order at 59.51 and TVIX continued lower. I held there, though. Eventually, half my order sold. Then, an hour or so later, the other half sold and I took a tiny loss.

1. Had I protected myself, it would've been a tiny profit or break even, but the range of the price from one blink of the eye to the next is so wide, allowing it to range around is almost a must.

2. It's impossible to get a feel for TVIX without knowing exactly what the news is out of Japan or elsewhere. I blame this on trading from my bed, which is, of course, my own fault. (It was so relaxing, though.)

3. Selling was a no-brainer, even with the power company seemingly uncertain. TVIX could easily, easily run back down to 51 or 47, the latter being the closing price on Monday. That would've been a significant losing trade rather than a tiny one.

4. Had I been stuck with half of my position — if that half hadn't sold in this thinly-traded issue after hours — it would've been a tolerable risk.

Of course, now that I'm out of TVIX, the bid is now 59.51 and the ask is 61.77. There was a trade of 40,000 shares at 59.86 a few minutes ago. It's still a better overnight hold than VXX (time decay eats into the price before morning), but being 100% cash again is fine by me. If that power line is somehow connected sometime before tomorrow's opening bell, TVIX probably returns to 50 in an instant.

Teevixen can be a maneater

Update, 11:49 am (Hawaii). This would explain the 40,000-share lot in TVIX afterhours (59.86) as well as the much higher ask (61+): the dollar-yen support is totally decimated. More below at Zero Hedge. Reuters reports that foreign firms want the Tokyo Stock Exchange to close tomorrow (which is actually just two hours from now).

CNBC is reporting that Japanese officials are calling a press conference at that same time. Maybe they'll talk about the power line. Or shutting down TSE for a day. Maybe both. Maybe neither. They'll talk, though, and that's welcome.

Update, 12:16 pm (Hawaii). A look at TVIX, EXK and AAPL.

Not much to be gained from TVIX's chart

Just pretty, that's all

Winter's TVIX shorts are long gone

Today's volume the most ever

EXK under selling pressure two days in a row

EXK in choppy seas after a big run

AAPL under relentless selling pressure

after today's downgrade

50-day moving average (rope of hope) snapped.

Now the 100-day MA is being tested.

Prince of the Refiners? WNR warming up

WNR and refiners are in a sweet spot

Dan Norcini: Will the Bank of Japan come into the Forex markets this evening? (Mar 16 2011)
Reuters: TSE to keep Japan's trading floors open (Mar 16 2011)
Zero Hedge: USDJPY goes bidless (Mar 16 2011)
Reuters: EU energy chief says Japan reactor 'out of control' (Mar 16 2011)
Wall Street Journal: US stock futures turn slightly higher, crude up $2 (Mar 16 2011)
WSJ: Bahrain crackdown sparks rebound in oil prices (Mar 16 2011)
Business Insider: JMP downgrades AAPL (Mar 16 2011)

I used to love volatility

Hysteria. Fear. Warmongering. Yup, there was a time when I relished an opportunity to trade VXX. One early morning, when I first gave it a serious go, I rode VXX in premarket for a $4,000 gain. A few minutes later, I re-entered and took a $4,000 loss. An hour before the opening bell, I was back to even on the day. That's how vicious the VXXen really could be.

That was about two years ago. Now, the time decay factor overnight leaves me cold and limp at the thought of VXX. However, there's TVIX, the stable twin sister of VXX. And TVIX has been hotter, if less fluid (lower volume). Can I muster the lust to trade this hot bitch again? I haven't felt it in the past month as crude oil shot through the roof, and I didn't feel it in the past few days as Japan's energy efficiency turned into a hellish nightmare.

Maybe I'm just not up to it anymore. Maybe I am.

Charts do little to identify anything about ultra-ulcerous ETFs like TVIX and VXX, but a visual or two doesn't hurt.

Beautiful gap-ups in TVIX

5 day chart

The ascension began with Egypt, then Libya

So odd to see VXX gap up (like TVIX) as if 

the overnight time-decay factor is nonexistent now

3-month chart doesn't say much about the carnage

Receding tide or market tsunami?

(Photo: Fortune)

Update, 3:05 pm (Hawaii). Still getting used to the change in time zones. We're six hours difference from the East Coast now, not five. Catches me off guard when 2 o'clock arrives and I realize aftermarket has closed. 

What a comeback by the market in the latter half of the session. Now futures are mostly green, though not by more than six-tenths of a percent. Still quite interesting considering nothing in Japan has been secured. The nuclear reactors are still a threat. But emotional trading hit the market in the past 48 hours and that has finally petered out, apparently. Still a long way until tomorrow's opening bell, of course. 

AAPL's ride today was an opportunity for the risk-takers. The only other stock that interests me is WNR (oil refiner). I have no interest in playing the volatility (TVIX, VXX) or bearish ETFs. Not sure why; I used to like VXX a lot. I'm at peace waiting this out. 

Looking ahead: Aside from oil refiners like WNR, watching coal plays (Japan needs energy) and Bakken Shale plays. Whether you are in favor of these or not, the media will milk all it can out of these stories. Propaganda, whatever. Still keeping an eye on precious metals, but the seasonal rotation out has begun en masse, it seems. 

AAPL is still my preferred vehicle. If outflows become massive, that'll put a lid on AAPL short term, similar to 2009. But if money stays in the market, hedge funds will pile on. Again. It happened today with NFLX. It will happen with AAPL, if this crisis passes. Apparently, information coming out of Fukushima is wildly contrasting. I don't believe anything they're saying, not much anyway, except what Kudlow said about the Prime Minister asking the officials in Fukushima, "What the hell is going on?!" 

Update, 4:10 pm (Hawaii). Short note on AAPL. Previous support was at 338 and 326. Today's drop to 340 was close enough to test 338 ... but I'd like to see a dip below 340 to see if 338 really will hold. Guess here is iPad 2 momentum is too strong and 338 won't fall. But the problems in Japan continue, so anything is possible before the opening bell tomorrow.

Business Insider: Another fire at Reactor #4, two workers missing (Mar 15 2011)
Dave Fry: Rumors dominate markets  (Mar 15 2011)
Warren Mosler: Welcome to the 7th US Depression (Mar 15 2011)
Jon Bon Jovi: Steve Jobs killed the music business (Mar 15 2011)

Now that is a beautiful wig

5:21 am (Hawaii). What else would you say if someone asked you about their beautiful wig? Would you ask why they had to wear one? Isn't the truth sometimes not so preferable? It is what it is. The market is wearing a wig.

After being away for most of the night, I'm home in early morning. I knew futures were imploding and the market was way, way down at the opening bell nearly two hours ago. My watch list is 18% green, 82% red and I figure it was far worse at the opening bell. But AAPL has rallied from its LOD of 340.10 and is now trading at 345.10. I didn't step in. I'm still watching from the rafters, amazed and horrified by everything going on in this global village of ours. I've been in 100% cash for many days now, with the exception of an overnight trade in AAPL (more like over-weekend) that broke even.

Though AAPL and many stocks are off their lows, I hardly believe they're about to return to yesterday's closing prices. There will be a penalty assessed to the market whether justified or not. The heroism can be someone else's trait. I'll wait until the aftershocks wane and the radiation levels peter out. It could be awhile.

Off the edge: NGD 9.40 (-7.5%), UCO 49.21 (-6.8%), FAS 27.80 (-6.7%), EXK 8.42 (-6%), SLW 39.40 (-5.5%).

The few: TVIX 53.45 (+12.4%), EDZ 22.63 (+7.5%), VXX 35.35 (+6.1%), NFLX 211.48 (+5.1%), TZA 43.98 (+4.9%), QID 55.65 (+3.9%).

These winners, all contrary plays with the exception of NFLX, are off their highs as the market rallies from today's lows. TVIX opened at 57.94. EDZ opened at 23.49. VXX opened at 37.05. TZA opened at 44.73. QID opened at 56.70.

Can't help but wonder how much of the mini-comeback today is due to Fed injection and how much is truly coming from retail and street.

Also, Le Fly remains genius. His call on oil refiners, namely WNR, remains stout. WNR is up 1.6% to 16.24. It opened at 15.50.

Update, 6:32 am (Hawaii). AAPL above 347 for some time, a nice bounce off LOD (340+). Trader's dream. If anything is going to rally off a low, it would the maker of iPad 2 (and the whole smorgasbord of space-alien technology). If only Apple had a solution to the potential meltdowns in Japan. 

Market is remotely healthy now: DJIA -1.5%, Nasdaq -1.5%, S&P 500 -1.46%. 

WNR up 2.75% to 16.43. Refiners look rock solid today and possibly for some time to come. So why won't I step in? 

Odd movers include PSUN (+3.1%), NFLX (+6.7% to 214.57) and F (+0.9% to 14.42). NFLX up on an upgrade. Really. 

Update, 6:41 am (Hawaii). AAPL finally cooling off after the runup off the LOD. Another case of 50% factor. AAPL closed yesterday at 353.56, bottomed today at 340.10. A 50% retrace of the drop puts AAPL at 346.83. AAPL wound up rallying to 347.84, now at 345.87. Human nature can't be measured perfectly, but there are often some fairly reliable areas worth observing. 

Tuesday reading

Sign of the times: Nukalert keychain

AP: Security official says Saudi soldier shot dead by opposition protester in Bahrain (Mar 15 2011)

Run Red Hot: Silver toppings 2 (Mar 12 2011)

Business Insider: Did lunar perigee amplify the Japan quake? (Mar 11 2011)

Business Insider: Dennis Gartman: Nobody's laughing at me anymore for my warning about the 'super moon' (Mar 11 2011)

Timeout Tokyo: Japan earthquake: How you can help

ChessNwine: Defense wins championships (Mar 15 2011)

Fantastical Friday

Gold up. Silver up. Oil up. Stocks up. Everything (almost) is up, and mostly up big with less than 20 minutes left in the session.

I haven't made a trade since Tuesday early morning (premarket). I don't feel satisfied, but I don't feel greedy, either. Good place. Still feeling the ailment, still achy and headachy and it sucks. When I woke up, the market was already 90 minutes in (almost 6 am Hawaii time) and everything was green. I've had some long naps since and there is simply an abundance of buyers and a shortage of sellers. Who would've figured that for a Friday. It's almost like a parallel universe, or an opposite world. Instead of the sell-into-strength tendencies of Fridays, it's almost a fantasy.

The first price that had my eyeballs boinging out of my cranium was UCO, which was listed at more than 300% up. I was drowsy when I saw that and immediately thought, 1) must be a typo, and 2) it's not a typo, so maybe Libya just got turned into dust. Holy crude! But no, it's a reverse split in UCO, the one I'd heard about earlier in the week. QID also did a reverse split.

But generally, the top of my watch list is ruled by silver entities. EXK (+5.1%), SLW (+5%), SLV (+4.1%), PAAS (+3.7%). AAPL, BIDU, other momo names like CMG and LULU all up roughly 1% or more. But on the red side, CSTR and NFLX can't get out of the hole. Even AMZN is fractionally down; as the No. 1 contender to usurp NFLX's throne in streaming movies, AMZN should be rolling today, right?

VXX and TVIX are the bottom of my list. Did they actually stop bombing unarmed protestors in Libya today. If so, how can oil stocks still be above water for the day. Weird. Fantastical. Everybody (but the shorts) is happy.

The only negative? Volume is low.

Purely momentus

3:25 am (Hawaii). Is the pit stop already over? In lieu of a real pullback of 5 or 10%, the market is awash in green numbers on my iMac screen. It's stunning, confounding ... I'm all cash and happy to be there, but sans bad news, the market is possibly ready to take flight once again without me.

AAPL is set to gap higher if it holds here at 361.44. A 50% retrace from today's premarket high to 360.74 or so, would've been a nice entry point for a short-term trade, but it wouldn't even come back to 361 even. I may be a whore for this stock, but there's a limit to how much I'll chase. Must maintain a shred of dignity and discipline. Or not.

A gap here could be a runaway freight train, a cliche that invites an image of a perilous crash. Whatever. I just think that above 360 AAPL could run several more dollars higher. Pull back. Run again. Pull back. It's a fund manager's must-have. Who can blame any of them? The world's reigning filthy-rich megastock with a ridiculously low P/E, 75% growth YOY and $59 billion under the matress.

Yesterday, AAPL touched 361 in premarket and never got close after the opening bell. But with 3/4ths of my watch list green, is it reasonable to assume that all of these stocks are being played by the specialists? Don't think so.

What else is green in premarket? VCLK (+12.9%), POT, LVS, NFLX, EGPT, on and on and on. More like, what's not green? That would be HAIN (big run lately), TBT, OPEN, QID, ARMH, VXX, RLOC.

Update, 4:33 am (Hawaii). Missed the 50% retrace of AAPL. Came all the way down to 360.50 or so but I was cautious about such a steep drop after the opening bell. Then it moved back to 361.50-plus within a minute. Volume is definitely there. This may be liftoff, after all.

Update, 5:20 am (Hawaii). AAPL to the moon, now 362.68. Major buying pressure the past 10 minutes, from 361.20 almost nonstop higher. The move came along with positive divergence in MACD. Missed my chance at the opening bell on the 50%-plus retrace from yesterday's close. Oh well ...

Next retrace (50%) entry is 361.35. Not expecting a pullback to that level, but I won't chase.

Update, 5:26 am (Hawaii). 50% retrace would be 361.45 now. HOD is 363.00. Likely was a short squeeze. AAPL longs having a party.

Update, 8:36 am (Hawaii). Somewhere, the angel in charge of stock moves is shaking his head and giggling at me. Really. As I drifted into slumber — hey, it was early morning and even two Red Bulls overnight couldn't keep me up longer — Newton's Law took effect. AAPL came back down to earth after touching 364.90. In fact, AAPL retraced even mote than 50% (of the day's gain) and bottomed at 361.42. (Retrace was nearly 70%.)

Maybe I should've put in a limit buy order, but falling asleep wasn't in my plan and I don't care for hard orders of any kind. Anyway, after hitting that level, AAPL ramped up and rose to 363.44, a gain of $2. In the past hour or so, shares have meandered around 363 and change.

So, I've been in cash all day, amazed by the spike in AAPL, not a penny made. Not a penny lost either. The market remains in the green, but gains are not as broad as they were earlier.

Update, 9:21 am (Hawaii). The two major drops in AAPL (and to an extent, the general market) were at 11:21 am (Eastern) and 12:01 pm (Eastern). There aren't many steady declines in the stock nowadays. It's gradual, no-selling pressure climbs that peak and get sold off violently. Whether they're activated by robots or retail stop-loss orders is not the issue. AAPL is top-heavy, a big dude who can bench press 700 pounds who also has pencil legs and tips over at the slightest breeze of 1-2 mph.

Shares are still up more than 3 bucks for the day (almost 1%). Without a catalyst, the guess here is that late-arriving funds have established their positions since Monday. There's no edge to buying here at 363 as a retail trader unless a final-hour buying spree kicks in. I'll be much more willing if shares get below 362 again.

9:55 am (Hawaii). So, Disney and Apple drawing new lines in the sand today. Disney tells Netflix and Coinstar wholesale rates are going up for its films. Apple making that 30% cut the anchor rate of sorts across its app store. Anyone still think Steve Jobs really isn't working behind the scenes at both companies? His prints are all over this. Good for profit margins at DIS and AAPL.

11:01 am (Hawaii). Opened a position in AAPL before the closing bell. Today's volume (16+ million shares) and the short-term base at 363+ provided an opportunity off the HOD (364.90). Not a perfect entry point (sub 362 was ideal) and shares could trade down to 360 (options expiry in two days). Rumor on Boy Genius Report about Verizon and Apple disappointed with iPhone 4 sales.

12:52 pm (Hawaii). Out of AAPL with a small loss (-2.83/sh). I saw shares dip excessively from 363 to 362 in a flash, then head lower and lower. Finally saw links on Twitter about Steve Jobs being spotted leaving Stanford Cancer Center. Instead of waiting around, I just stepped out of the trade and took the small loss. (Half of 1 percent of bankroll.) Figures that no matter how cautious I am, trying not to hold overnight most of the time, the slightest bit of negative news can send AAPL off a cliff. Soft landing, at least this time. Shares bounced off sub 360 and are now at 361+. Back to 100% cash. Best wishes to Mr. Jobs.

9:59 pm (Hawaii). Free time once again. Nice to see that Steve Jobs is meeting with a bunch of techies and a certain individual named Barack Obama tomorrow night for dinner. Looking back, I don't regret erring on the side of caution and getting out of my AAPL trade. That was no mistake. My concern about the public's perception of Jobs going to the doctor was the only factor, and I was right to get out in case AAPL went off the rails (far lower than 360+.

My position did not give me an edge of any kind. Longs who got in at 50 or 100 easily brushed the Enquirer and Daily News stories off like nothing. But those of us who are trading AAPL now are probably much more sensitive to unexpected news and price movement because our position is far more vulnerable. Therein lies the rub. I chased AAPL afterhours, and in the end, I paid the price. It was an odd set of circumstances, but the crux of it all is it was my own fault. The trade itself didn't cost me much, but the execution and price point were mediocre. There's much to learn from today's trade gone bad. It's not about the dollars. It's about discipline. I'm still learning.

The lack of discipline goes back to the opening bell, when AAPL sold off after gapping up. I had my entry point in mind, but did not follow through. Soon enough, AAPL ran from 361 to almost 365.

Two examples of a lack of discipline. To trade AAPL requires a modicum of faith sprinkled on solid discipine. I need both, really.

Swing low

The action that saw equities take a major dip starting at 4:55 Hawaii time (25 minutes after the opening bell) is remarkable to look at on charts. While issues like AAPL began a leap-off-a-cliff action, VXX soared higher. Roughly 20 minutes later, that momentum reversed. Say what you like about the short term and long term, avoiding flash crashes and global armageddon ... those who invested in AAPL just two years ago and slept well did far better than those of us who sail in a wicked sea of micromanaging.

Starting to look more at the effects of inflation in commodities, especially underperformers YTD gold and silver. GLD is up 1.4% today.

AAPL flirting with 344.

Update, 11:15 am (Hawaii). The divergence between AAPL and VXX has not been entirely common lately, unlike last year (May, to be exact). But today was classic.

Here's another oddity: SLV moving up with AAPL over the past months, while GLD has lagged (at "only" a 30% gain). Too many buyers tipped that golden boat over for a bit, but GLD is rallying once again ... along with equities. Something that never used to happen. Welcome to Bernankeworld.

Rip Van Aloha

I wake up at 8:30 on this sunny Thursday morning to find myself off center. Feet not quite on the ground. Still transporting from a world where I did an all-nighter, worked on work-related stuff for nearly 48 consecutive hours (my choice of course) and then finally crashed out for the past nine hours. The only thing I heard about Egypt was via The Fly, who noted that shit was hitting the fan in Egypt last night.

Just catching up a little here. Looks like VXX ran up some to 31.25 early in the day, but pulled back and is hovering at 30.35 or so. I'm slightly negatoid with a tiny position there. Not sure I would've sold at 31+ though. That's how small the position is. Market is generally flat. Hardly a thing moving until the past few minutes as Bernanke talks about how QE2 is not the reason for rising inflation overseas. After ignoring the market for half a year, this is the first time I've seen him talk in awhile. He seems a bit defensive and much less confident, imho. Not the same guy I remember from a year or two ago.

AAPL's range today, 338.55 to 343.92 is interesting. Now at 343.43. Still a lot of buyers even in this skittish environment. NFLX back in the green (211.64). So is F (15.61). But FAZ (+1.5%), GLD (+1.2%), QID (+0.3%) and TBT (+0.8%) are all up.

It was a good morning to catch up on sleep.

Update, 10:09 am (Hawaii time). Stopped out of my little VXX position. Why bother with such a tiny position (loss was 1/10th of 1%)? In a peculiar way, it keeps me interested, more than I probably would be with no skin in at all. It wasn't bad. If it was a sizable position, I would've stayed up and sold above 31. Here below 30, no point.

Bernanke has spoken. Markets will be robust for a few more months and as we get closer to July 1, it all shrivels up and turns to dust. Something like that.

Cairo chaos?

Not quite chaos, but real close. Protestors battling protestors? Sounds fishy. What are the odds that the instigators (on horses) aren't just ordinary citizens. My guess is it's 95% the troublemakers are the police, who have been bad news all along. With Mubarak refusing to resign immediately, nothing is going back to "normal" for awhile, even with the Internet back on in Egypt.

Opened a tiny position in VXX again, which is well above its earlier low in premarket.

Mild Monday

So far, so mild. Good sleeping weather here, 65 degrees and blue skies. Even with an early (for me) bedtime, I missed the first three hours of the market. Egpyt? Bah. No biggie, says the market. Global selloff to start the week? The Dow, S&P and Nasdaq didn't blink. All three are fractionally up.

AAPL has made a run in the past hour or so from 334 to 339, a pleasant surprise. I got out last week, so I'm just waiting for a re-entry point. It appears 334-335 is new support.

As for VXX, I got out with a tiny loss in the mid-31 area. It's so typical of me to have such a modest position and yet all I could think of for most of the weekend was Egypt and VXX. The market often thinks one or two steps ahead. Unless that situation erupts into a shutdown of the Suez Canal, the street gatherings and protests are built into the US market already.

I was expecting a red day, but AAPL, BIDU, FAS, GLD, IBM, TBT are green. NFLX is finally selling off, down 1.8% (214). F is down 1.2% (16.06). GOOG and AMZN down slightly. LULU also. TVIX, which was up more than 20% on Friday, is down 2.4%, so net-net, it's still up big the past two days. I'm staying out of that, VXX and most everything else. The only issues I'll touch are AAPL and maybe GLD and VXX.

What do I know?

When Mubarak announced his decision yesterday to fire his entire staff, I figured that would placate Egypt's protestors until Monday. Instead, the death count has risen from 10 to 102 in little more than 24 hours. Fact is, the military has been very gentle with the general public; the latter wants the police deposed, not the army, and not just Mubarak.

After spending the day working and away from computers, this is stunning news. I underestimated the rage in Cairo. Maybe it's a setup, the police's disappearing act.

Update, Sunday, 4:08 am. Incredible, the rolling list of news coming through Google search right now. New story shows up every 2-3 seconds. Murabak's army jets are screaming lower and lower to the square where protestors have gathered in the thousands. Reports of army trucks nearing the square, too.

BBC reporter: 'This is how they treat journalists'

What the world respects is one's willingness to fight back. Things get worse, as a result, before they get better. But people can only take so much crap. When the price of bread rises to ridiculous proportions, shit happens. Obama warned the government, but they wouldn't listen.