Titilating Thursday

10:20 am (Hawaii) Quite a stimulating session for bulls. I was asleep, away in Dreamland. Must've been good. I don't remember a thing, but my countenance is even. Meanwhile, the indices finished positive. The Nas up for an eighth day in a row.

I stayed out after watching the open. I missed this run up and I didn't want to catch the inevitable fall down. As expected, hotties XG and EXK made pit stops today after major moves higher. XG down 0.8% to 14.37 (afterhours) and EXK down 0.5% to 9.66.

More numbers came out today, more positive for the market, but really, it's all momentum based on the assumption that the debt ceiling will be raised and that the Eurozone has a better grip on its debt crisis for now. It's like this: FAS and FAZ are at extremes from one day to the next, regardless of how the indices are doing. Logically, FAZ should be crushing, but there's JPM (+1.9%), Citi (+1.7%), BAC (+1.7%), STD (+1.2%), GS (+0.9%) and so on. All these banksters eventually will run out of government handouts. Just a matter of when the plug gets pulled and they start gagging on their own poison. I don't think the big boys will die. They'll just languish until the market corrects itself without the life support provided by the doomed fractional reserve system.

My Metals list is 71% green, but the depth of huge gainers has been reduced. "Only" 18 issues gained at least 1.5%. FAS and UCO are in this list as convenient indicators for the broader view, but both were up more than 4% today. REE (+3.8%), PALL (+2.8%), MCP (+2.5%), CU (+2.4) were very strong for the rare earths and non-gold, non-silver traders. Copper's recent run hasBrother Turd pointing to a possible repeat of its run of last year.

You've probably been wondering about that, too. With Greece and the global debt crises, so much is similar to last year's market behavior: Lackluster in the spring, total launching pad in July and rocket ship action to the end of the year. Is that going to happen again in 2011? If they kick the proverbial can down the road again, it's clear the big money would like this to be so. Self-fulfilling prophecy and all that.

But I would add this: volume is sinking as this hot streak of the past week-plus continues. Here's a look at today's big winners on my Metals list.

FAS - volume up today compared to yesterday

UCO - volume way up, nearly double

REE - volume lower

PALL - volume lower

MCP - volume lower

CU - volume higher

AGQ - volume lower

PSLV - volume similar

AVL - volume lower

JJC - volume lower

COPX - volume HUGE

GG - volume higher

XME - volume lower

PLTM - volume higher

PGM - volume lower

AG - volume lower

DBB - volume similar

GOLD - volume higher

AGOL - volume higher

PPLT - volume HUGE

SLV - volume lower

WITE - volume lower

DBS - volume lower

Those are the metals on my list that were up more than 1%. For the most part, volume was lower today going into tomorrow's key report. It's been a quiet week, news wise, in Europe, and last week's end-of-month window dressing has carried over.

My Regular watch list is 78% green with PSUN, yes that PSUN (occasionally loved by Le Fly) up 10.2% today. There's better depth here than in my Metals list.

PSUN - volume HUGE

WNR - volume up big

VCLK - volume up

VLO - volume up HUGE

FCX - volume up HUGE

LVS - volume up HUGE

MNW - volume up

SWY - volume lower

RLOC - volume lower

CLNE - volume lower

GOOG - volume higher

ENY - volume similar

USO - volume higher

AMRN - volume higher

APC - volume similar

OWW - volume lower

FORM - volume higher

MSFT - volume higher.

All of these are stocks that gained at least 2% with the exception of MSFT (+1.8%). AAPL (+1.6%) moved up to 357 on lower volume. AMZN up 1.5% on higher volume. BIDU up 0.8% on similar volume. NFLX up 0.8% on lower volume.

It's good to be aware of the surroundings. Not everyone had the foresight to park money in NFLX, PCLN and AAPL below 50 and forget about it for a few years.

Dual duplicity

7:08 am (Hawaii) Just got up from a good night's rest. Such a flat market. My recently-made Metals Watch List is only 15% green, lowest level ever, with only bear ETFs green with one exception: XG (Extorre Gold). XG is up 6.9%. That's it. Spot Silver is below 40 as of the past hour. Spot Gold plunged to 1509.

The chameleon traders who rode Spot Silver up and are riding it down are banking big buccos. ZSL, the double silver bear ETF, is up 11.7% today. That's on top of the 30% gain already this week. Traders are making more money more quickly on ZSL than they did on Spot Silver. There's no way I would've leaned toward a position in ZSL yesterday when it was at 17.50. But there seems to be no apparent reason for anyone to buy silver, even at this level, and the lack of buyers is killing the price.

Nimble traders riding momentum. You can understand fundamentals to the fullest, but knowing where the big money is going matters most. ZSL was at 14 on Monday. Can it climb more today and tomorrow? Certainly. But again, as selling a decliner early or not at all is sometimes best, buying a rocket launcher like ZSL early rather than at the near-term top is preferable. After gaining 40% in 3 1/2 days, this is thin ice territory.

As for Spot Silver, 37.50 looks like a reasonable support level, a 50% retrace of the recent run to 49+. Great for physical silver buyers and swing traders on the bullish side. Painful for traders on the buy-and-hold side. AGQ, the double bull silver ETF, was at 370 or 380 last week. I got out with a $4/share loss. Now it's at 235.61, close to its low of 231.10. My regular watch list is only 20% green. The only stock worse off today is OPEN, down 14.3%.

Up today: GMCR (77.20 +20.6%), VCLK (18.48 +12.3%), HAIN (35.12 (+5.5%), TVIX (25.94 +5.3%), EDZ (18.07 +4.7%), TZA (35.89 +4.3%).

Game plan remains simple: 100% cash.

Update 7:39 am (Hawaii) It's always interesting to see bloggers with strong convictions get more balanced with changing climates. SGS (SilverGoldSilver.com) is one of my favorite blogs. I disagree with some things there, but generally, I appreciate the candor and intensity of his convictions. He realized that buying puts would help protect his assets, but his critics are flaming him. I've never used puts, but I understand the practicality and profitability of protection. It's insurance in a bloody market.

It's no far-fetched guess that if all of us had known Spot Silver would crash like this, most of us would've protected our positions by getting some ZSL. I got out with SLV at 46.75 and AGQ at 369.44. That was that. But if I'd opened just a tiny position in ZSL — it was at 13 last week — it would've been a good momentum read. I'm just not that astute.

Update 7:53 am (Hawaii) The news on Extorre Gold Mines (XG) last week was about "high grade to bonanza grade gold-silver results from the first 3 of 21 diamond drill holes completed to date on a discovery named Zoe at Cerro Moro, Santa Cruz Province, Argentina." Now XG says it's up to 10 drill holes that are showing this level of gold and silver. The Zoe spot is familiar for anyone who watched the company's video recently. I like the way they market their stuff. The co-chairman seems quite transparent. But I didn't believe enough to invest even a tiny position.

ZG closed at 9.03 yesterday. Now at 9.64, off the HOD of 9.91. XG has pulled back 31% on its gain today, which is approaching a level I like. I am NOT a gold bug, never bought a miner stock before. But this video from last week is entertaining enough, especially on a rotten day for precious metals.



Update 8:14 am (Hawaii) Other gold miners with positive news today are Continental Gold (CNL) and Kirkland Lake Gold (KGI). See the story here.

Also, PAAS is one of the rare silver plays that is positive today, up 1.6% to 34.37. A report says PAAS has "provided an update on the situation in Boliva and San Vicente."

Update 8:43 am (Hawaii) Spot Silver is rebounding a bit. EXK has risen steadily and is now back above 10. PAAS continues its comeback and is at 34.50.

Some thoughts on the smaller gold and silver miners. NGD has floundered lately, but is one of the gold miners that really pops when momo is on its side. Currently down 1.8%to 10.01. No news lately.

Extorre is a spin-off from Exeter. Yale Simpson, a co-chairman at Extorre Gold Mines, is executive chairman of Exeter, which is trading just above $3/share. Exeter's focus is in Chile; Extorre is in Argentina. The company logos are virtually twins. Here's a video of Simpson talking about Exeter's projections last November.

As the host of the video (done by Even Keel Media) indicated at the end of another video, Extorre is a sponsor of the program and the program is an investor in the company. Good transparency, but I'm more impressed by their marketing/PR efforts than anything. I don't know jack about mining.

Spot Gold was below 1510, but is now at 1517. Spot Silver is off its low, now 39.75.

Update 9:25 am (Hawaii) This video is a couple of weeks old, Max Keiser with Brad Cooke, CEO of Endeavour Silver. 

Part 1

Part 2

2010 Financials

This is pretty funny.

Update 10:37 am (Hawaii) This guy figured out how to cast his own silver ingot out of scrap silver and a tiny bit of .999 silver. He created a .925 sterling silver bar. Looks like a lot of work, but he probably had fun doing it. If the world ever goes to shit, this guy's skills will be invaluable. 

Purely momentus

3:25 am (Hawaii). Is the pit stop already over? In lieu of a real pullback of 5 or 10%, the market is awash in green numbers on my iMac screen. It's stunning, confounding ... I'm all cash and happy to be there, but sans bad news, the market is possibly ready to take flight once again without me.

AAPL is set to gap higher if it holds here at 361.44. A 50% retrace from today's premarket high to 360.74 or so, would've been a nice entry point for a short-term trade, but it wouldn't even come back to 361 even. I may be a whore for this stock, but there's a limit to how much I'll chase. Must maintain a shred of dignity and discipline. Or not.

A gap here could be a runaway freight train, a cliche that invites an image of a perilous crash. Whatever. I just think that above 360 AAPL could run several more dollars higher. Pull back. Run again. Pull back. It's a fund manager's must-have. Who can blame any of them? The world's reigning filthy-rich megastock with a ridiculously low P/E, 75% growth YOY and $59 billion under the matress.

Yesterday, AAPL touched 361 in premarket and never got close after the opening bell. But with 3/4ths of my watch list green, is it reasonable to assume that all of these stocks are being played by the specialists? Don't think so.

What else is green in premarket? VCLK (+12.9%), POT, LVS, NFLX, EGPT, on and on and on. More like, what's not green? That would be HAIN (big run lately), TBT, OPEN, QID, ARMH, VXX, RLOC.

Update, 4:33 am (Hawaii). Missed the 50% retrace of AAPL. Came all the way down to 360.50 or so but I was cautious about such a steep drop after the opening bell. Then it moved back to 361.50-plus within a minute. Volume is definitely there. This may be liftoff, after all.

Update, 5:20 am (Hawaii). AAPL to the moon, now 362.68. Major buying pressure the past 10 minutes, from 361.20 almost nonstop higher. The move came along with positive divergence in MACD. Missed my chance at the opening bell on the 50%-plus retrace from yesterday's close. Oh well ...

Next retrace (50%) entry is 361.35. Not expecting a pullback to that level, but I won't chase.

Update, 5:26 am (Hawaii). 50% retrace would be 361.45 now. HOD is 363.00. Likely was a short squeeze. AAPL longs having a party.

Update, 8:36 am (Hawaii). Somewhere, the angel in charge of stock moves is shaking his head and giggling at me. Really. As I drifted into slumber — hey, it was early morning and even two Red Bulls overnight couldn't keep me up longer — Newton's Law took effect. AAPL came back down to earth after touching 364.90. In fact, AAPL retraced even mote than 50% (of the day's gain) and bottomed at 361.42. (Retrace was nearly 70%.)

Maybe I should've put in a limit buy order, but falling asleep wasn't in my plan and I don't care for hard orders of any kind. Anyway, after hitting that level, AAPL ramped up and rose to 363.44, a gain of $2. In the past hour or so, shares have meandered around 363 and change.

So, I've been in cash all day, amazed by the spike in AAPL, not a penny made. Not a penny lost either. The market remains in the green, but gains are not as broad as they were earlier.

Update, 9:21 am (Hawaii). The two major drops in AAPL (and to an extent, the general market) were at 11:21 am (Eastern) and 12:01 pm (Eastern). There aren't many steady declines in the stock nowadays. It's gradual, no-selling pressure climbs that peak and get sold off violently. Whether they're activated by robots or retail stop-loss orders is not the issue. AAPL is top-heavy, a big dude who can bench press 700 pounds who also has pencil legs and tips over at the slightest breeze of 1-2 mph.

Shares are still up more than 3 bucks for the day (almost 1%). Without a catalyst, the guess here is that late-arriving funds have established their positions since Monday. There's no edge to buying here at 363 as a retail trader unless a final-hour buying spree kicks in. I'll be much more willing if shares get below 362 again.

9:55 am (Hawaii). So, Disney and Apple drawing new lines in the sand today. Disney tells Netflix and Coinstar wholesale rates are going up for its films. Apple making that 30% cut the anchor rate of sorts across its app store. Anyone still think Steve Jobs really isn't working behind the scenes at both companies? His prints are all over this. Good for profit margins at DIS and AAPL.

11:01 am (Hawaii). Opened a position in AAPL before the closing bell. Today's volume (16+ million shares) and the short-term base at 363+ provided an opportunity off the HOD (364.90). Not a perfect entry point (sub 362 was ideal) and shares could trade down to 360 (options expiry in two days). Rumor on Boy Genius Report about Verizon and Apple disappointed with iPhone 4 sales.

12:52 pm (Hawaii). Out of AAPL with a small loss (-2.83/sh). I saw shares dip excessively from 363 to 362 in a flash, then head lower and lower. Finally saw links on Twitter about Steve Jobs being spotted leaving Stanford Cancer Center. Instead of waiting around, I just stepped out of the trade and took the small loss. (Half of 1 percent of bankroll.) Figures that no matter how cautious I am, trying not to hold overnight most of the time, the slightest bit of negative news can send AAPL off a cliff. Soft landing, at least this time. Shares bounced off sub 360 and are now at 361+. Back to 100% cash. Best wishes to Mr. Jobs.

9:59 pm (Hawaii). Free time once again. Nice to see that Steve Jobs is meeting with a bunch of techies and a certain individual named Barack Obama tomorrow night for dinner. Looking back, I don't regret erring on the side of caution and getting out of my AAPL trade. That was no mistake. My concern about the public's perception of Jobs going to the doctor was the only factor, and I was right to get out in case AAPL went off the rails (far lower than 360+.

My position did not give me an edge of any kind. Longs who got in at 50 or 100 easily brushed the Enquirer and Daily News stories off like nothing. But those of us who are trading AAPL now are probably much more sensitive to unexpected news and price movement because our position is far more vulnerable. Therein lies the rub. I chased AAPL afterhours, and in the end, I paid the price. It was an odd set of circumstances, but the crux of it all is it was my own fault. The trade itself didn't cost me much, but the execution and price point were mediocre. There's much to learn from today's trade gone bad. It's not about the dollars. It's about discipline. I'm still learning.

The lack of discipline goes back to the opening bell, when AAPL sold off after gapping up. I had my entry point in mind, but did not follow through. Soon enough, AAPL ran from 361 to almost 365.

Two examples of a lack of discipline. To trade AAPL requires a modicum of faith sprinkled on solid discipine. I need both, really.

As I stalk my shares of AAPL ...

The rest of the market is soaring much higher. Not to be greedy, of course, with a $3+ move since yesterday AH. But I look at my growing watch list and DIS is at the top with a 4.2% gain. Mickey Mouse hasn't been atop a space mountain this high since May, 2000. That's some ride down and back up!

Imagine a Disney longtimer who saw his stock options sag monumentously TWICE in the past 11 years. Getting back to even never felt so good.

Other big gainers today: HAIN (Cramer with a big pump yesterday), AMZN +3.7%, SLV +3.1%, NGD +2.9%, EXK +2.7%, LULU +2.7%, RLOC +1.9%, VCLK +1.8%, TBT +1.8% (go figure), FAS +1.3%), OPEN +1.2%, IBM +1.1%, GLD +1.1%.

AAPL trading afterhours at 354.92 after brief spurt to 355.69. BIDU, F, VZ, GOOG, MOS fractionally higher.

In the red: NFLX -0.1%, POT -1.5%.

As for AAPL, I'm 30% tempted to sell for a nice little profit. I'm 20% cautious about another pre-catalyst bad-news lightning bolt (re: MLK Day/Steve Jobs health issue). If Apple has an overnight bad-news announcement, I won't be shocked. Fortunately, the 50% in me that says, "Let the winner run" is prevailing.

2-day

 2-month

10-year: extreme slope up tempts shorts, but 76% growth is monstrous