From the minds and hearts of DNDN's retail investors

The Dendreon forum at Investor Village is a haven for true believers in the Co's pioneering late-stage prostate cancer immunotherapy treament, Provenge.

At least, they hope it will be a pioneering treatment. I won't go into the many levels and chapters of the war between all parties involved. Between lawsuits, the FDA, hedge funds, corrupt doctors, insider information and victimized shareholders, all the info could fill a fat book and then some.

For now, I'll lead you to a highly pertinent post by one of the forum's regulars. In his post, These are the Questions the SEC, the DOJ (FBI), and HHS OIG Should Be Asking..., warlord_2010 leaves no stone unturned.


It's unfortunate that most folks, including myself, have a soft spot in our hearts for the underdog. Since Dendreon went into this uphill battle against many murderous opponents hiding in the wings — the ones who orchestrated the defeat of Provenge — it's been a one-sided, bloody fight. If this were held in a boxing ring, the referee would have declared this a TKO long ago.

Read warlord_2010's list and consider what role the FDA currently plays in saving human life, or whether the FDA has become de-evolved into something it was never meant to be.

Disclaimer: Pupule Paul is long DNDN.

Not for the squeamish: Dendreon

There's a reason why I'm writing about a C grade stock. Many reasons.

Dendreon (DNDN $7.79)
Chart
Grade: C

The skinny: I don't like putting a stock rated below 'B' on this list, but that doesn't mean absolute rules are best. Dendreon was a D company in my book for several weeks despite my optimism about the potential of Provenge. Even with the shenanigans of anti-DNDN forces at the FDA and elsewhere, the risk-reward has improved for this company and its immunotherapy vaccine for late-stage prostate cancer. I'd rather wait until the PPS dives below $6.50 again, but this is not a bad entry point, either. Still, it could be two years (or more) before a real, sustained move enters the territory. Short interest is so compact and large (49%) that any good news will cause tremors.

X factor: For all the corruption and arrogance of its foes, much of Dendreon's shot at survival will depend on its ability to find a ROW partner, one that won't take a cut of US profits. Provenge could become worth $1 billion per year, or it could be literally shelved, depending on management's ability to emerge out of a hostile environment. The jury is out on whether CEO Mitchell Gold can hit that finish line.

Summary: Traders are riding the stock up and down, and without ROW and/or partnership news, or completion of Dendreon's 9902B (Phase 3) trial enrollment, this is not a fundamentally sound issue to buy. However, for those who believe in the science and potentially groundbreaking immunotherapy, this is a stock worth holding and accumulating.

Extra point: The Dendreon forum at Investor Village has been chastized by some in the media as cultish. These same media — not all of them — are showing more focus on retail investors than their actual job. So far, only Mike Huckman of CNBC has had the fortitude and integrity to ask tough questions about conflict-of-issue concerns (re: Dr. Howard Scher) regarding Provenge opponents. Most of the remaining media has been gutless, to be blunt.

Disclaimer: Pupule Paul is long DNDN.