Pupule demotion: FWLT

Naughty stock, very naughty and bad. Foster Wheeler is a tremendous company that missed estimates in its earnings report this morning.

Demoted from A- to B+. With infrastructure spending looming as a necessity across the nation, I expect FWLT to bounce back in Q3 and Q4.

Until then, no longer one of my top stock picks. Still in good company ... but momentarily disappointing.

Pupule Paul has no position in FWLT.

Foster Wheeler earnings out before open

Who can guess where FWLT's stock will be at when the closing bell rings? If FWLT follows its competitors in the sector, it will not only beat estimates this morning, but raise guidance.

I saw FWLT end at $106 last night, only to go straight to $112 in after-hours trading. Does somebody know something?

If I had huge money to trade with, this would be a possible definite before the 9:30 a.m. Eastern conference call, and I'd hedge it with puts. That's how bullish I am on the stock. Wasn't always that way, but ever since I began focusing hard on fundamentals of stocks, Foster Wheeler simply stuck out so vividly.

Whether I get some shares of a Co that I rated A- a few months back, I don't know. Part of me wants to trim the breadth of my portfolio and focus only on four of five. My wild guess on where FWLT ends today's session: $123.

Pupule Paul has no position in FWLT.

By the chart: A- shopping list

Now that Big Ben has essentially told the markets, "You made your bed, go sleep in it," volatility is here to stay.

The good is that strong companies will still maneuver through the muck and reach new territory in the market. Weak companies? Investors will have less of a pain threshold for those little puppies who need boatloads of free cash to stay alive. Rough world.

Looking at the charts, here's how I view my A- picks on the shopping list. A bargain is a bargain is a bargain. No sense overpaying for great stocks when they always come back to a decent price. I don't think we'll see AAPL at $128 again soon, but I think it's a buy here. This list may help you (or not), but it will serve as a reminder to myself to avoid chasing a runner! It happened last week when I added more Nintendo at $62. Whoops.

AAPL 135
Middle of simple and exponential moving averages. Pupule says: Strong buy.

AMZN 79
At top of moving averages. Low volume today. Big fight between longs and shorts. Pupule says: Wait.

BIDU 199
Near top of moving averages. Below-average volume lately. Though I wanted to see BIDU come back down to 175, that looks out of the cards. Pupule says: Buy.

CEO 112
At bottom of moving averages. Soft upside volume, but the funamentals and the new deal in southeast China are positive. Pupule says: Strong buy.
[Note to self: If CEO trades at the same P/E as PetroChina (PTR), its PPS would be 124.]

CMG 108
Floating above moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

CROX 57
Slightly above moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

FWLT 106
At bottom of moving averages. Earnings next week. Pupule says: Strong buy.
[Note: FWLT traded at 111 in extended hours. Not so strong a buy at that level, but still in range.]

GOOG 516
No longer below moving averages with the nice gains in the past two sessions because of the wireless advertising (cellphone) dimension. Not as cheap as last week. Pupule says: Buy.

GRMN 100
Floating above moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

NTDOY.PK 58
Just above moving averages, but this stock is so hot that it rarely trades within. I might get more here. Pupule says: Wait.

RIMM 222
At top of moving averages. Tough call here. Pupule says: Wait.

UA 64
Floating above moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

Pupule Paul is long AAPL, BIDU, CROX, NTDOY.PK and UA.

A- picks mostly underwater today, but UA still on fire

Less than an hour left in today's session. I woke up a few minutes ago and found a whole lot of blood on my black screen.

Not shocked, not even surprised. This is the market as it lives and breathes today. It's part of the reason why some people went into the real estate business. Especially in Hawaii, land is more than gold. It's certainly a limited commodity. But I digress. Damn this market is schizo!

On my recently updated A- pick list, seven stocks are down and three are up.

The three A- kings that are standing tall today are Garmin, Nintendo and Under Armor. Garmin is robust and hit $100 for the first time. Yes, I'm still in a house of pain because I passed on GRMN earlier in the week at $83 on the eve of earnings. So much for a pullback. GRMN is kicking tail as the rest of the market drowns in red.

Nintendo (NTDOY.PK) is up fractionally in the $57 range. Current bid is $57.35. Tempting at this level since it pulled back from $65 on July 26. This is the first stock I've owned that is subject to an outside market. Completely. As a pink sheet here, it doesn't trade in extended hours. The stock simply, though it doesn't necessarily have to, trades as a mirror to "7974," which is its ticker on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. When extended hours ends in the U.S. — 8 p.m. Eastern — the TSE begins trading. Too bad there's no overlap.

The big gainer of the A- kings is Under Armor (UA), which roared to $68.24 before pulling back. UA is trading at $64.75, up 4.4%. The stock has a short interest of 50% and has been en fuego since blowing out earnings estimates this week.

The downers included Foster Wheeler (FWLT), which has given back more than 5% today and is trading at $111.42. Though FWLT announced a nice deal with Sinopec on Wednesday, the stock sold off more than 6% today. With earnings due out on Wednesday, FWLT looks like a discount buy here.

Crocs (CROX), meanwhile, is down 2.4% to $58.88. The stock has seen dwindling volume in recent days and was due for a pullback after being up in four out of the last five sessions. CROX is trading at $58.97.

Ron Snyder, Crocs CEO, exercised options on more than 234,000 shares on Tuesday. He sold them at $59 to $60.10 each, which means he raked in nearly $14 million. His reward for another outstanding quarter. Those who think CEOs get paid too much will quibble. I suggest that they apply for his job and try to steer this juggernaut as well first.

I'm completely for restraint when it comes to outlandish salaries. I'm also for the kind of incentive-based pay that Snyder gets. You perform, you are rewarded. Happens in professional and college sports, as well, so the socialist line of thinking should apply there, as well. There's a reason why America continues to produce great companies, even in an economic slowdown, while more socialist-flavored, laid-back nations remain stagnant.

When's the last time France produced a great company anyway? But again, I digress.

Apple (AAPL) is down nearly 2% today for no other reason than a general market selloff. With the Nasdaq down 1.5% (40 points), the Apple tree is going to take a few hits from the bear ax. If it turns out that all this volatility is because the big boys on the street are selling their winners to cover the ineptitude of the sub-prime mortgage mess, I'll be very disappointed. Ha.

Hoku taking a breather

As expected, at least by this pupule, shares of Hoku Scientific are pulling back today after another meteoric rise.

HOKU had reached an all-time high last week, but decreasing volume on Thursday and Friday gave some indication that buyers were running out of steam. Hoku hit a high of $14.55, buoyed by pre-market volume of 228,000 shares. However, they trade at $13.87 now, down 18 cents from Friday's close.

The stock could use a breather as the PPS consolidates at these new, lofty levels. Bears and bulls have had it out on this company for many months now. Bears point to the current state of the Co, with scant revenues and no facility constructed as of yet to build out polysilicon for solar energy companies from Germany to China.

Bulls, meanwhile, point to the Co's swift decision-making and finesse in handling partnership deals potentially worth $1.2 billion. The polysilicon facility is expected to be completed in Pocatello, Idaho, in the first half of 2009.

The most significant pullback for the stock in the past month has been 18 percent, which barely puts a dent in the overall gain. On June 12, HOKU traded at $4.50. Even with this morning's pullback, HOKU is up 308 percent since the first of two key polysilicon contracts were established.

Hoku's amazing run — the stock was at $2.60 to start the year — isn't necessarily done. Friday's volume was 4.3 million shares, down from Wednesday's 11.6 million. The strength of today's action could bolster the bear sentiment if volume is considerable on a down day. Conversely, a strong surge in volume to the plus side could be the fuel to spur any remaining bulls currently on the sideline.

Elsewhere, Apple shares are zooming upward into new territory again. Despite a flat market — the Nasdaq is down by a fraction of a percentage point — buyers are converging on AAPL now that the iPhone is proving to be a hit and earnings are coming around the corner.

Revenue from iPhone sales won't impact the bottom line for second-quarter earnings, but Apple could announce what the impact of the June 29 release could mean for Q3. Lacking any foreseeable bad news, there appears nothing to keep AAPL shares tied down.

Apple traded to $139.98 in the first 30 minutes of the session. AAPL is currently at $138.52, up 81 cents, on 11.5 million shares traded.

Two more A- stock picks, Baidu and Research in Motion, are also up early in the day. BIDU was up $1.74 to $214.56. RIMM was up $4.57 to $232.09.

Crox, Google and Foster Wheeler were also up moderately. Spartan Motors and Amazon were the only A- stock picks that were down early.

Falling again: Shares of Northwest Biotherapeutics took another hit in the first hour today, dropping 57 cents to $4.35. The stock had rocketed to $7.33 a week ago after announcing that Switzerland had granted the Co approval for limited use of its immunotherapy treatement for brain cancer.

NWBO.OB fell for the next few days, hitting a mid-week low of $4.30, the rallying on low volume to $5.10. The stock is trading at $4.49, nearly double from its pre-announcement price per share.

Real strength in AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, RIMM

I'm a firm believer in buy and hold, no matter what Cramer says. Nothing against swing or day trading. I just think a substantial portion of any portfolio should include core holdings. Trading around those core holdings makes sense.

Letting a powerful bull run works in a simple, pure way as opposed to trying to catch it and ride it for short gains — paying a higher tax and multitude of commissions along the way. With that in mind, here's quick look at my A- stock picks and where momentum stands in each.

Amazon (AMZN) $75.10
After trading sideways since a June 14 mid-day high of $72.87, volume kicked up on Monday. Today was a third day in a row of increasing volume (12.5 million shares) and AMZN traded at an all-time high of $75.35 at mid-day. Rising volume and the breakout make this a tempting buy for Amazonians.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) $137.73
To the dismay of Apple bears and competitors, the gravy train is still chugging ahead. At near-warp speed, mind you. AAPL broke out to a new high (ho hum) today on 32 million shares, up from yesterday's 25 mil. Though this is one of only eight A- stocks, it is also only one of four that is at a healthy entry point.

Baidu (BIDU) $212.84
Bear-buster Baidu has gained $77 in one month. With a float of just 19 million shares, the short squeeze has been painful for bears. The recent move up, since $181 on July 2, has been on robust volume. There have been only four down days since June 12, and today's breakout is an all-time high. Is it a buy here? Tough call for momo traders, since today's 5.2 million shares is right about average for the past 30 days. Always a major risk in terms of entry point. This stock hasn't known a floor since it was in the 90s!

Crox (CROX) $47.10
The happy run from $40 to $49 hit a skid yesterday, and the PPS dropped today on lower volume. As earnings day (Aug. 2) inches closer, plus options expiry, volatility will rule. Risk-loving longs will load up on this mini-dip.

Foster Wheeler (FWLT) $120.25
Recent run is nice, but the stock has finished lower in two of the last three days. Could be a buying opp for bulls.

Google (GOOG) $552.16
Seems like just a little while ago when Google was hovering at $460 and investors were growing weary, bored, frustrated with the lack of volatility. Well, blame your leaders. Google intends to never split. Google intends to have a stable stock. They love Warren Buffett in Googleland. Good for investors. Today's breakout (up nearly 7 bucks) on 5.2 million shares is nice for longs and long wannabees.

(Update, 2:35 p.m. CNBC just reported that the eBay-Google debacle of a few months ago could affect Google's earnings. Somehow, I just don't put much stock in that, and if it affects GOOG, bulls have a buying opp.)

Spartan Motors (SPAR) $17.16
The stock has struggled since its split and has given up much of its fluff. Underneath remains a strong moneymaker. The stock has traded sideways for three weeks. An interesting earnings report is around the corner.

Research in Motion (RIMM) $227.52
Nice breakout today (5.6%) on higher volume. This stock has just killed shorts, and who knows how high it flies now. Like Baidu, except with real money in its coffers. And, coincidentally, the Chinese market awaits the Crackberry. Looks like a buy here.