Thursday cinema & library

We're on the verge of some potentially titanic movements in the next few days. Sit tight and avoid the turbulence, or at least take a barf bag with you. Better yet, get on your bike and enjoy a fine summer evening.

Tyler Durden: Positioning for weekend: BofA's risk cheat sheet (June 15)
TraderFlorida (video): Thursday wrap (June 14)
streetmoney21 (video): Currency markets prepare for total chaos on Monday (June 14)
Le Fly: Come get it (June 14)

Charles Biderman: How to benefit from global financial mess (June 14)

Street Insider: Unusual mid-day movers (NBG) (June 14)
Barron's: Apple potential 'game changer' in mobile payments (June 13)
Reggie Middleton: As predicted last year, French and Greeks in race (June 13)

Wednesday cinema & library (updated 830 pm HST)

Blogs
(new) Golden Truth: Don't get MF'd by Blackrock (Nov 9)
(new) Golden Truth: Stagflation sets in (Nov 9)
Zero Hedge: Did Merkel just usher in the deutsche mark? (Nov 9)
Reggie Middleton: What's that I heard about squids raising capital because they can't trade? (Nov 9)
Zero Hedge: Italy sparks market bloodbath: financial stocks collapse (Nov 9)
Le Fly: Murderholes (Nov 9)
Scott Bleier: Sometimes there are two sets of facts... (Nov 9)
Turd Ferguson: The Criminal Element, part deux (Nov 9)
Le Fly: Behold: Armageddon (Nov 9)
Cain Thaler: It is now official (Nov 9)
RaginCajun: Not quick enough (Nov 9)
Turd Ferguson: Bancarotta (Nov 9)
Zero Hedge: YTD equity fund outflows hit $112 billion (Nov 9)
Nicholas Pardini: It's not too late to short financials (Nov 9)
David White: Italy's 10-year bond yield passes 7% - another black swan event? (Nov 9)
Reggie Middleton: Italy's woes spell nightmare for NBP - just as I predicted (Nov 9)
SGS: Morning update (Nov 9)
Le Fly: Nuclear option is now on table (Nov 9)
RC Whalen: MF Global, repo-to-maturity and large bank OBS exposures (Nov 9)

Zero Hedge: Barclays says Italy is finished: 'Mathematically beyond point of no return' (Nov 8)

Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul: Chinese to bust gold cartel (Nov 8)
(new) Peter Morici: Is Italy next to fall and will gold go to $3,000/oz (Nov 8)
Golden Truth: More on MF Global - it gets worse (Nov 6)

Vlogs

silverfuturist: Silver doesn't blow up when promises fail (Nov 9)
Hit the Bid: Krull to Arms (Nov 9)
James Turk: Guest Markus Kerber (Sept 30)

Audio

(new) Peter Schiff Radio (Nov 9)

Mainstream
CNBC: Italy's woes signal 'dangerous phase' in EU crisis: El-Erian (Nov 9)
Reuters: ECB's Stark to Europe: We are not 'lender of last resort' (Nov 9)
CNBC: State, muni crunch hits home values: Meredith Whitney (Nov 9)
CNBC: 65 chance of banking crisis by end Nov: Think tank (Nov 9)
Bloomberg: Goldman Sachs traders lost money 21 days in Q3, most since '08 (Nov 9)

(video) Reuters: Italy's borrowing at breaking point (Nov 9)

(video) Euronews: Berlusconi set for exit after austerity vote (Nov 9)

(video) Reuters: Perfect storm forming in Italian bond market (Nov 9)

(video) ET Now: Guest Jim Rogers (Nov 8)

Eye candy

FAS vs FAZ

12:36 pm (Hawaii) Getting a lot of work done early in the day now that I'm not obsessing over a schizoid market. Yesterday, Italy's chief announced he would step down under conditional terms and the market zoomed. Today, Italy bonds get out of control (again) and the Dow loses 389 points (3.2%). The action was not gray area at all. AAPL sank 2.7% to 395. Financials were fugly.

BAC -5.2% to 6.19, WFC -5.4%, AIG -6.3%, IRE -6.5%, NBG -6.8%, JPM -7.2%, UBS -7.7%, C -8%, STD -8.2%, GS 8.2%, BBVA -8.3%, MS -8.7%, HBC -9.1%, ETFC -9.4%, JEF -10.4%, RBS -11.1%, DB -11.2%.

FAS shrank 14.8%. FAZ went from 39 yesterday to 43+ today with very little selloff into the close. In fact, after I got up, it dropped below 43 to the mid-42s, then ran up above 43.50. On big volume. If you're like me, you know AAPL leads the retail market, and AAPL's selloff today on large volume with that hanging man candle looks simply horrible.

Technicals do not tell us what's going to happen, and they are the mercy of headline risk. But they do provide a visual into the global monetary chaos, and what a friggin mess.

Below, some charts and that includes TVIX, which was up 37% freaking percent! I remain in the bleachers sipping a hot cocoa, cash under the mattress.

FAZ daily

No matter how much weight the banksters have behind their

punch, they can't find resolution to the toxic assets near and far.

FAZ daily

Major move today on heavy volume but I suspect this stays in a 

range between 36 and 44. A break above 44 would tempt.

FAS daily

The breakout momentum was doused today but volume

was not totally indicative of a definite avalanche.

FAS daily

Big move post-pennant? I should've said moves, as in plural!

DGP daily

Down 1.7% today, which makes no sense considering the

mega-printing of fiat that is due globally. Soon.

AAPL daily

One hell of an ugly candle.  

AAPL daily

The move lower was on significant volume.

UUP daily

Mad US dollar!

TVIX daily

37% in one day? This closed at 46.04 yesterday.

TVIX daily

The Italian-German-French-Greek soap opera continues in 

As The Euro Central Bank Turns. Tomorrow's episode: 

Happy bedroom talk resumes and TVIX loses half of

today's enormous gain. 

Rome is not burning - yet

5:34 am (Hawaii) This may or may not have anything to do with the market or FAZ, but it's intriguing to imagine what more of this portends for bankster stocks in the very near future. Students in Italy protesting at Goldman Sachs in Milan.

More bounce to the ounce

7:36 am (Hawaii) There goes the FAZbreak, pushing back up to 63.65. I just got up 15 minutes ago, re-entered at 63.30 even though FAZ is/was up more than 8% for the day. I really don't like chasing anything like I did in the past. And I liked FAZ at 60 or 55, but didn't buy at 60. This morning, it came down to 56.33 in premarket trading. But I was snoozing.

Looks like 56+ will turn out to be the recent low, which makes sense. My megaphone pattern on the chart had FAZ at 55 if it touched the bottom of its range. Then Fitch downgrades Italy and Spain, and FAZ bounces. The Dow has dropped 20 points since I turned on the computer, now -56. I've followed FAZ off  and on for awhile, doing daily charts the past week or two and it's been interesting. Just when you think alien hybrid algo devil machines run everything, human psychology returns to the arena. In other words, when FAZ sells off or goes on a tear higher, it moves like nothing else. It's panic or party time. So I don't expect a drastic pullback yet, not like I would in other stocks or ETFs.

This was at 81 what ... two or three days ago? The move to 81 happened, but the other move — to 100 — is still coming. I still don't know if FAZ goes back to 50 or 42 first. For now, it's either keep tight stops and stay out of any possible avalanche selloff later in the day, or mobilize for a home run move. The difference today is that it's Friday, and that will play into the psyche.

FAZ 1-minute: up 9% so far today

Update 8:03 am Added more FAZ at 64.05, giving in to the urge to chase, and got spanked. Sold at 62.90. The run is probably done after three surges higher today. That's a lot for any stock, especially when it's up about 10% at the peak. Small loss. AGAIN. Giving the price action space to move used to be a good thing. Now, it's a failing tactic. Probably going back to selling at my entry point. FAZ went to 64.15 before sliding. 

Dow is -8 and making a strong rally off its low. My timing couldn't have been worse. Only decent thing I did was get out. I was too overconfident in the momentum in this late stage of the move. Sometimes 10% up is the ceiling, sometimes it's not. This time, it was. Adding the shares above 64 didn't help. Here in the 62.90-63.00 range, I'd be down just a tiny bit from the 63.30 entry point. There's a part of my thinking that wants to stick to strict price targets like 60 and 55. Then there's the undisciplined part that chases intraday. It's time to get much much more technical. 

Monday cinema & library (updated 100 am HST)

Blogs
(new) Reggie Middleton: Eurocalypse trading commentary (Sept 12)
(new) Reggie Middleton: As the French bank runs (Sept 12)
(new) Reggie Middleton: Most of Western Europe on the brink of bank collapse (Sept 12)
(new) Turd Ferguson: (pm) Turd picks his bottom (Sept 12)
> Charts Gold Dec 8-hour | Silver Dec 8-hour
(new) Scott Bleier: Holding our breath (Sept 12)
(new) Jake Gint: The Banquo-Housing Connexion (Sept 12)
(new) Le Fly: Daytraders hell (Sept 12)
(new) Le Fly: Fly buy: ZSL (Sept 12)
(new) Le Fly: Greetings from Romania (Sept 12)
(new) Le Fly: Breaking: European markets have closed, get your space helmets ready (Sept 12)
> "I am over-trading and making errors, only because of greed."

(new) Le Fly: The hardest market ever (Sept 12)

(new) Le Fly: The party is over (Sept 12)

(new) SGS: No title needed, I'm bored (Sept 12)

(new) King World News: Richard Russell - Not so fast gold-haters (Sept 12)

(new) Harvey Organ: Another massive raid as Europe burns to the ground (Sept 12)

(new) Jesse's Cafe Americain: Perception is everything when you rule the world (Sept 12)

(new) King World News: James Turk: Expect $2,000 gold within 45 days (Sept 12)

(new) King World News: Eveillard: Expect a mania in gold before this is over (Sept 12)

Zero Hedge: Market snapshot - what happened? (Sept 12)

Turd Ferguson: (am) No real change (Sept 12)

> Charts Gold Dec 3-hour | Silver Dec 4-hour

SGS: Silver TA update (Sept 12)

Zero Hedge: As a reminder, here is what China really thinks about Italian bonds (Sept 12)

Zero Hedge: UBS' George Magnus says European 'viability is far from assured' (Sept 12)

Zero Hedge: $32 billion 3-year bonds sold at rate below 3-month LIBOR (Sept 12)

Jamie Coleman: I got your safe haven right here... (Sept 12)

Jamie Coleman: Stocks turn higher on the day (Sept 12)

> "The market is insane if they think more Chinese buying of European debt is gonna make a dimes worth of difference in the ultimate outcome..."

Zero Hedge: Greek bank deposits decline for 7th month in a row (Sept 12)

(new) Clive Maund: Silver could be on verge of devastating decline (Sept 11)

Chris Duane (Silver Shield): A decade of denial and deception (Sept 11)

Turd Ferguson: TFMR Podcast #1 (Sept 11)

SGS: 10 years later and the best performing asset is... (Sept 11)

Vlogs

(new) streetmoney21: A word of caution for silver market (Sept 12)

(new) jackieochannel: Gold, silver and food inflation (Sept 12)

(new) Keiser Report: Confidence game (Sept 12)

(new) Realist News: Web Bot hit possibly - $20 a day silver coming soon? (Sept 12)
(new) Jim Comiskey: Daily market insights - Metals futures (Sept 12)

(new) Realist News: Greek people crapped on with new property tax (Sept 12)

Heretic Productions: Alexander Massa's The Time Has Come America! (Sept 12)

silverfuturist: Thanks to SGTbull (Sept 12)

endlessmountain: The Silver Log (Sept 12)

Hit the Bid: Remembering (Sept 12)

GuildF40: The QE blame game starts (Sept 12)

Alexiscom1: Euro crisis & RE: freedom lost, economy collapsing (Sept 12)

Al Korelni: Closed Asian markets, light trading volume of gold (Sept 12)

george4title: Is Google using us? (Sept 12)

SGT Report: Chris Duane: A decade of denial and deception (Sept 11)

endlessmountain: Gold technical analysis (Sept 11)

Alexiscom1: Swiss gold frank, Obama job plan (Sept 11)

Alexiscom1: RE: Warning for silver investors (Sept 11)

ScrapGoldBusiness: Reasons the WTC buildings went down? (Sept 11)

ScrapGoldBusiness: Even big box stores feeling the pinch (Sept 11)

ScrapGoldBusiness: Gold-buying stores national averages (Sept 11)

ScrapGoldBusiness: Testing gold with the GXL-24 Pro (Sept 11)

James Turk: Peter Grandich interview (Aug 6)

Audio
King World News: Peter Schiff (Sept 12)

Turd Ferguson: Guest Mark Steyn (Sept 11)

CNBC: Sinclair Noe & Bob Chapman: The dollar is no longer the world reserve currency (Sept 11)

Blog commentary

Irene: Some facts, some opinion (Sept 12)

> Chinese holidays on Sept 13, Oct 3, Oct 5

DarkPurpleHaze: Angela Merkel's Euro Contagion Band (Sept 12)

OCC15: Please read - this is par for the course! (Sept 12)

benroberts13: Asian holidays? (Sept 12)

Tesla: zoom out a little to get perspective... (Sept 12)

ScottJ: Greek bonds (Sept 12)

Reports

(new) Bloomberg: Merkel eschews 'uncontrolled Greek insolvency' (Sept 12)

Video

(new) RT: Age of Austerity: Italy town rebels against Rome, wants own currency (Sept 12)

(new) CNTV: Gold buy-backs slow in China (Sept 12)

Bloomberg: 'Panic setting in over European crisis' (Sept 12)

Journeyman Pictures: The Genocide Insider - Sudan, July 2008 (Sept 12)

Journeyman PIctures: Big Damage - Papua New Guinea (Sept 12)

Journeyman Pictures: Never Say Die - China (Sept 12)

Journeyman Pictures: Divine Mission - USA (Sept 12)

Metal bling

(new) silverpornUK: Part 9 - It's big and hairy (Sept 13)

(new) RyanB0011: F15 Silver Philharmonic (Sept 12)

(new) RyanB0011: F15 Silver Libertad (Sept 12)

(new) Ryan B0011: F15 Silver Maple Leaf watch (Sept 12)

Eye candy

(new) Street Low Magazine TV: Non'z 51, Kool Impressions CC (Sept 12)

Grand turbulence

Italy in play: Giorgia Palmas

10:39 am (Hawaii) I got up late after a busy weekend, feeling rested. The Dow Jones was down 100 points, then stumbled to 120 or so down. This was around 8:00 am Hawaii time. Two hours before the close. I blinked and the Dow was down 50. I blinked again and it was -5. By the close the DJ was +68.99.

I haven't turned up the volume on CNBC in the background, though I see on the subtitles that China is offering (threatening?) to buy Italian bonds. Details? I have no idea. But if that's what it takes to get the market up, that's amazing. Not surprising, but amazing.

Today, FAZ went from 66 (up 3 bucks) to 63 to 65 to 64 and when I woke up, it was at 65. It closed at 61+. Tumultuous and turbulent, indeed.

I remain all cash because as forked up as the banksters are on both sides of the Atlantic, there will be a lot of flimflam (like today's rumor) that will sucker punch anyone late to the party, ie buying FAZ at this level. I'll wait for a drop to below 60, preferring 55 and 50.

Gold and silver? DGP melted down to sub-66 before closing at 66.84 (-4.3%). AGQ down 6.3% to 210.91. I still prefer to stay away from paper silver as long as the banksters are long gold (per JP Morgan's $2,500 prediction) and short silver. Today's move in spot gold price to $1,800 bears watching. If it stays above $1,800, maybe I get more physical, but I'm on the lookout for price to sink into the 1700s. A lot of sharks out there are desperate to raise cash, similar to how AAPL is often sold off after hitting new highs. Just like AAPL, gold price can crater through sheer profit-taking.

AAPL did finish up 0.8% to 380.36 after being in the red most of the day. Low was 371+.

It's that simple for me right now. Not interested in miners. Not interested in longshot plays, even good ones like GSVC. It's about the banksters/FAZ, DGP and AAPL. Not interested in VXX or TVIX. Not interested in GDXJ or EXK or XG. Or BIDU. Keeping things simple.

At some point, the ice cracks and these PIIGS fall right to the bottom of a frigid lake. That's why I'm keen on re-entering FAZ at some point. That's why DGP will jump. Eventually AGQ will run with gold, always in its shadow. So FAZ at 55, DGP at 60 and AGQ at 200 will pique my interest much more.

Seller's remorse

9:22 am (Hawaii) How else can I explain it? Selling FAZ in the high 40s (or was it low 50s?) a week or two ago was prudent. Momentarily prudent. I didn't have the cajones to hold on to the small position or to hold on to my conviction that the banksters would be punished soon enough.

And, soon enough, what did we get? Euro banks and politicians having an orgy of confusion, mayhem and chaos. FAZ rising to nearly 66 today. Sixty-six. Ouch. I got up somewhere around 8 am Hawaii time. Caught up with the day's action. The jobs report. Bad news from Euro land. Then "good news" on Germany bailing out the latest dumbledee nation in severe debt. (I don't get why Germany has relegated itself to babysitter status.)

So, FAZ came off its high and fell to 58+, still up for the day. I'd been watching it closely yesterday near the close, but decided against entering. Today, a different story. I strayed from my anti-risk posture and dove in at 63.55, concluding that FAZ would make a run back to 65+ in this final hour. But I was cautious about profit-taking by traders who were sitting on a nice, fat gain. Sure enough, it pulled back and I sold at 62.70 for a tiny loss. I gave it one more shot on the way back up at 62.87, but again, up 5% for the day, FAZ faltered under serious selling pressure and I unloaded my little sack of shares at 62.70. I might be wrong, of course. FAZ dropped to 62.10 or so, but is now up to 63.25. It's always been a crazy mover in times like this.

The right course of action in FAZ is to buy low (40s) and sell high (60s or 70s). The minute-to-minute can be captivating, but it's just noise. For a few minutes though, it can be a little fun when I peel off these layers of armor and try to fast trade. QE3 is undoubtedly coming. The FOMC meets on Tuesday. The Fed meets at Jackson Hole on the 26th. Any whiff of positive news for the market will end this downswing/correction. FAZ could easily plunge back to the 50s and 40s. But once the effect of QE3 wears off — and it'll fade much faster than QE1 and QE2 did — FAZ will march to 70 just as quickly. FAZ at 100? Looks like a good "long term" bet to me. I'll wait for 45 to re-enter.

Photo: Denise Milani

McCullough: France, Italy will crash next

McCullough (Hedgeye) has been dead on about the global debt fiasco. He says France is going to crash in the next quarter. Inevitable.