Purely momentus

3:25 am (Hawaii). Is the pit stop already over? In lieu of a real pullback of 5 or 10%, the market is awash in green numbers on my iMac screen. It's stunning, confounding ... I'm all cash and happy to be there, but sans bad news, the market is possibly ready to take flight once again without me.

AAPL is set to gap higher if it holds here at 361.44. A 50% retrace from today's premarket high to 360.74 or so, would've been a nice entry point for a short-term trade, but it wouldn't even come back to 361 even. I may be a whore for this stock, but there's a limit to how much I'll chase. Must maintain a shred of dignity and discipline. Or not.

A gap here could be a runaway freight train, a cliche that invites an image of a perilous crash. Whatever. I just think that above 360 AAPL could run several more dollars higher. Pull back. Run again. Pull back. It's a fund manager's must-have. Who can blame any of them? The world's reigning filthy-rich megastock with a ridiculously low P/E, 75% growth YOY and $59 billion under the matress.

Yesterday, AAPL touched 361 in premarket and never got close after the opening bell. But with 3/4ths of my watch list green, is it reasonable to assume that all of these stocks are being played by the specialists? Don't think so.

What else is green in premarket? VCLK (+12.9%), POT, LVS, NFLX, EGPT, on and on and on. More like, what's not green? That would be HAIN (big run lately), TBT, OPEN, QID, ARMH, VXX, RLOC.

Update, 4:33 am (Hawaii). Missed the 50% retrace of AAPL. Came all the way down to 360.50 or so but I was cautious about such a steep drop after the opening bell. Then it moved back to 361.50-plus within a minute. Volume is definitely there. This may be liftoff, after all.

Update, 5:20 am (Hawaii). AAPL to the moon, now 362.68. Major buying pressure the past 10 minutes, from 361.20 almost nonstop higher. The move came along with positive divergence in MACD. Missed my chance at the opening bell on the 50%-plus retrace from yesterday's close. Oh well ...

Next retrace (50%) entry is 361.35. Not expecting a pullback to that level, but I won't chase.

Update, 5:26 am (Hawaii). 50% retrace would be 361.45 now. HOD is 363.00. Likely was a short squeeze. AAPL longs having a party.

Update, 8:36 am (Hawaii). Somewhere, the angel in charge of stock moves is shaking his head and giggling at me. Really. As I drifted into slumber — hey, it was early morning and even two Red Bulls overnight couldn't keep me up longer — Newton's Law took effect. AAPL came back down to earth after touching 364.90. In fact, AAPL retraced even mote than 50% (of the day's gain) and bottomed at 361.42. (Retrace was nearly 70%.)

Maybe I should've put in a limit buy order, but falling asleep wasn't in my plan and I don't care for hard orders of any kind. Anyway, after hitting that level, AAPL ramped up and rose to 363.44, a gain of $2. In the past hour or so, shares have meandered around 363 and change.

So, I've been in cash all day, amazed by the spike in AAPL, not a penny made. Not a penny lost either. The market remains in the green, but gains are not as broad as they were earlier.

Update, 9:21 am (Hawaii). The two major drops in AAPL (and to an extent, the general market) were at 11:21 am (Eastern) and 12:01 pm (Eastern). There aren't many steady declines in the stock nowadays. It's gradual, no-selling pressure climbs that peak and get sold off violently. Whether they're activated by robots or retail stop-loss orders is not the issue. AAPL is top-heavy, a big dude who can bench press 700 pounds who also has pencil legs and tips over at the slightest breeze of 1-2 mph.

Shares are still up more than 3 bucks for the day (almost 1%). Without a catalyst, the guess here is that late-arriving funds have established their positions since Monday. There's no edge to buying here at 363 as a retail trader unless a final-hour buying spree kicks in. I'll be much more willing if shares get below 362 again.

9:55 am (Hawaii). So, Disney and Apple drawing new lines in the sand today. Disney tells Netflix and Coinstar wholesale rates are going up for its films. Apple making that 30% cut the anchor rate of sorts across its app store. Anyone still think Steve Jobs really isn't working behind the scenes at both companies? His prints are all over this. Good for profit margins at DIS and AAPL.

11:01 am (Hawaii). Opened a position in AAPL before the closing bell. Today's volume (16+ million shares) and the short-term base at 363+ provided an opportunity off the HOD (364.90). Not a perfect entry point (sub 362 was ideal) and shares could trade down to 360 (options expiry in two days). Rumor on Boy Genius Report about Verizon and Apple disappointed with iPhone 4 sales.

12:52 pm (Hawaii). Out of AAPL with a small loss (-2.83/sh). I saw shares dip excessively from 363 to 362 in a flash, then head lower and lower. Finally saw links on Twitter about Steve Jobs being spotted leaving Stanford Cancer Center. Instead of waiting around, I just stepped out of the trade and took the small loss. (Half of 1 percent of bankroll.) Figures that no matter how cautious I am, trying not to hold overnight most of the time, the slightest bit of negative news can send AAPL off a cliff. Soft landing, at least this time. Shares bounced off sub 360 and are now at 361+. Back to 100% cash. Best wishes to Mr. Jobs.

9:59 pm (Hawaii). Free time once again. Nice to see that Steve Jobs is meeting with a bunch of techies and a certain individual named Barack Obama tomorrow night for dinner. Looking back, I don't regret erring on the side of caution and getting out of my AAPL trade. That was no mistake. My concern about the public's perception of Jobs going to the doctor was the only factor, and I was right to get out in case AAPL went off the rails (far lower than 360+.

My position did not give me an edge of any kind. Longs who got in at 50 or 100 easily brushed the Enquirer and Daily News stories off like nothing. But those of us who are trading AAPL now are probably much more sensitive to unexpected news and price movement because our position is far more vulnerable. Therein lies the rub. I chased AAPL afterhours, and in the end, I paid the price. It was an odd set of circumstances, but the crux of it all is it was my own fault. The trade itself didn't cost me much, but the execution and price point were mediocre. There's much to learn from today's trade gone bad. It's not about the dollars. It's about discipline. I'm still learning.

The lack of discipline goes back to the opening bell, when AAPL sold off after gapping up. I had my entry point in mind, but did not follow through. Soon enough, AAPL ran from 361 to almost 365.

Two examples of a lack of discipline. To trade AAPL requires a modicum of faith sprinkled on solid discipine. I need both, really.

Zoom zoom zoom

4:40 am (Hawaii). Futures were rather flat and AAPL was just slightly in the green during premarket as I drifted in and out of sleep this morning. I'm finally retiring to bed, turned away from the laptop for a few moments and ZOOM! AAPL went from 356 to 359 at incredible speed.

Might have something to do with talk of a mini iPhone that would be half the size of the current make. More likely, it's just cash inflows pouring into the market as the week begins, scared money that avoided the risks of a wacky environment. How else to explain how EGPT has gone up $1 since I noticed it afterhours on Friday (now 19.60). Or NFLX climbing another $5 (to 236). Commodity-driven stocks like MOS and POT have enjoyed spurts this morning, but SLV and EXK are up, too. GLD (+0.6%), also up.

The broader market is pretty flat, but the momo leaders are still on fire. Zoom zoom zoom...

Update, 1:17 pm (Hawaii). A solid eight hours of sleep with intermittent checks on the market. That's how it's possible to doze through the session. Even if I'd been up, I wouldn't have bought AAPL at 359.38 or NFLX at 247.55, their highs of the day. No, I knew there would be no chasing of high flyers. I want great stocks cheap. I was better off sleeping.

How to explain NFLX, which ran higher — currently up 15.68 to 246.75 (+6.8%) — on news of increased popularity online. The numbers are bizarre and incredible: 20% of online traffic is because of Netflix now. Again, I say that the CEO of the company showed his savvy and efficiency a few years back during an interview on 60 Minutes. Still, I was not convinced. I was wrrrrrrong. Even a year ago, shares were available at 70 or so. Small float. Great opportunity. But I thought Apple and Amazon would invade the online streaming niche. Wrong again.

WSJ says time spent per viewer was up on Netflix 23%, 28% more video was streamed and customers spent 45% more time watching video online. (I wonder how movie theater stocks are doing.)

AAPL, by far, is my trading vehicle of choice, but in reality, it's a steady mover with occasional spurts. Better as a buy-and-hold over the short or mid-term. NFLX, clearly, is a short-stomper to the extreme. The combination of good news and fund inflows today didn't hurt, but I won't expect continued rise in the price tomorrow or the day after. I never expected NFLX to see 245 this soon, either, so...

Speaking of AAPL, that spike from 357 to 359 was dizzying. And shares stayed above 358 the rest of the day. Not many wanted to sell. Sure, 11 million shares aren't much to brag about, but there is simply a shortage of sellers while fund managers continue to collect shares. I try not to think about my own "relationship" with AAPL, having sold last week at 358.70. There was no way I was dipping a single toe into the water after that mini flash crash. Apparently, whoever (hedge funds) sold massively during that 30-minute period is done selling... right?

Never say never ... but those who have held since the run to 200 and dip to 78 and back up to 358 have probably gotten all their sleep and have begun counting down the days to retirement. More power to them.

AAPL: Huge spike in the first 10 minutes.

Volume tapering off, but Apple knows how

to consistently 'leak' stimulating news.

Massive short covering in NFLX at the open.

Count 'em: Six major gap-ups in the past 12 months.

Update, 4:55 pm (Hawaii). Catching up on today's big move in NFLX. So what really made NFLX jump another 16 bucks today? Qualcomm's development of an essential chip platform? More on Snapdragon's prowess here. Was it an analyst's upgrade? David Miller raised his target from 224 to 316.

Wow. 

Leonard Brecken accused Netflix of "playing accounting games." 

Update, 5:53 am (Hawaii). OK, Brecken and whoever else can bash Netflix all they like, but combine online movies with something cool like Apple iPads and iPhones (via app) and you have a recipe for uber-cool success, a Viagrish effect. I can accept that. May never buy at these levels, but it's there. 

But what about LULU? Really, I understand trends and fads, but this is parabolic. A double in four months? Really? Though Lululemon Athletica is legitimate as a company that sells butt-shaping product to yoga-loving women across America, the current trend in the stock reminds me of Fall, 2007. At that time, LULU was fresh off its IPO and I grabbed a few shares at 45. It exploded to 60, then fell back to 45 even more quickly and I got out at break-even. 

Now that it's trading at 83 with a chart that resembles Mt. Everest, is LULU's spurt about to run empty? Is this a sign of a market top? I think a short-term selloff is on the way. Nothing wrong, just basic supply and demand. 

The Viagrish effect will wear off or it'll break on its own.

Sell Apples, Make Cash

8:16 am (Hawaii). Sold the AAPL position at 358.70 for a 2% (almost) gain over two days. No complaints other than I should've pulled that trigger sooner (yesterday and today). The intra-day lower highs and lower lows (the past couple of hours) convinced me to step out. I'm relieved.

I can breathe a little better rather than wait for the herd to stampede out, though some of them already did above 359. I reserve the right to re-enter later today, maybe around 355-356. Could happen after that mad dash from 356 to 359 (and later 360). Not really expecting a drop today, though. Just wanted to lock in a decent profit, especially since I might fall asleep. These all-nighters are only fun with a profit in the pocket.

Update, 8:58 am (Hawaii). Got out in the nick of time. A few minutes after my sell, AAPL began to cascade over a major cliff. Most AAPL fans knew it was due for a selloff, but it went from 358 to 348 in a span of 17 minutes or so. This is exactly why I insist on trading AAPL short-term only at this point. The long-timers who got their shares at 95 or 200 can rest easy; this is basically a blip. But for traders who entered at these levels (I entered on Tuesday just below 352), sitting through a 10-dollar plunge is useless. Not sure how or why volume was so freaking huge to the downside, but it bounced off 348, came back to 354+, and is now settling at 352+.

Cleared out all the stop loss orders along the way, one more reason why I prefer to have a mental stop instead of relying on anything else. Whoever picked up shares this week with plans to hold it to 500 or 1,000, this is a blip, as well. I'd rather get out and see if I can get a cheaper price.

Update, 9:19 am (Hawaii). Should add that if I seem a bit paranoid about stop-loss orders in a momo situation, it's because I've been burned royally in bear raids before (DNDN).

Update, 10:02 am (Hawaii). Still no clear indication of what caused the early afternoon crash of AAPL.

Philip Elmer-DeWitt: Snapshot of an Apple flash crash

Here, the mini-crash puts a dent right through what had been a robust gain (after shares opened to the downside along with the rest of the market). I lucked out and exited just before that at 358.70. 

The two-day chart shows exactly how oddly AAPL behaved while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ went about the afternoon as if nothing happened. 

AAPL still near its all-time high. Retouching 360 is going to be a challenge after a lengthy run. 

Update, 3:02 pm (Hawaii). Kept an eye on AAPL and the Egypt coverage on TV afterhours, but didn't trade a thing. VXX was somewhat interesting, rising about 30¢ to 28.79 AH after Mubarak told his nation that he ain't resigning yet. Just not worth the move with contango and the way it hits VXX each morning to the downside regardless of externals.

Market finished flat, basically. APPL finished AH at 354.10, down roughly a buck after a flash-crash-like free-fall (see above).

DIS was barely in the red (43.31 AH) after yesterday's huge jump on great earnings. OPEN, ECA, BIDU, TBT, LULU, HAIN, POT and MOS all 1.3% higher or more. NFLX, AMZN, GLD fractionally higher.

Here's an excellent summary of why hardly anyone showed up at the stores for the new Verizon iPhone 4.

Philip Elmer-DeWitt: Why are the Verizon lines so short? 

#1 Potash

The worlds wants to eat meat. To get meat, they need to grow corn and soybeans. To do that, they go to Potash and the other remarkable companies that produce fertilizer that can make plants grow on Mars.


Maybe not on Mars. But that's in the pipeline. Maybe not.

Top 25: #1 Potash

Great company, beautiful stock and the world's demand for prime fertilizer (and more meat) is not going to cease anytime soon. POT is lofty, way above its 50-day SMA. We can admire from afar.

Top 25: #1 Potash

Big shakeup as the market rattles, but Potash is still solid as a company. Oh, POT is not cheap here and frankly, I can't see any way to hold any stocks long term right now. But if POT were to get super cheap, definitely a trade worth contemplating. Right now? Far above its 50-day SMA ... quite a feat considering the crappy state of the market. No touchie.

Top 25: #1 Potash

Time for a refreshing new look at the market, i.e. my favorite 25 stocks. Lord knows they've all been beaten to pulp and left for dead in an alley. I'll start with my new No. 1, Potash.

POT 140.80 +4.55 (+3.3%)
50-day SMA: 129.76
This is one of the few stocks that held up rather well through the tumult of the market. Meat is murder in the eyes of all vegans, but that hasn't stopped China and India's growing demand for it. Must raise crops ... must raise soybeans ... must soybeans/fertilizer to animal ... must eat animal. Too bad Potash isn't cheap anymore.

Pupule portfolio

A few more additions to the faux portfolio.

AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
AAPL | in at 177.64 (11 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

AAPL | in at 171.25 (18 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
AAPL | in at 179.40 (22 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08

AMZN | in at 84.26 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/11/08

AMZN | in at 81.08 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/11/08
AMZN | in at 82.87 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/14/08
AMZN | in at 79.76 (50 shares) | 40% of position | 1/18/08

BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 344.31 (6 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

BIDU | in at 345.21 (9 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

BIDU | in at 344.10 (12 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08

CEO | in 167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



CHL | in at 84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08

CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08

CHL | in at 85.22 (47 shares) | 40% of position | 1/7/08



CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

CMG | in at 123.98 (16 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
CMG | in at 117.87 (25 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

CMG | in at 118.58 (34 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08



EBAY | in at 32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08

EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08

EBAY | in at 30.44 (131 shares) 40% of position | 1/7/08



FLS | in at 90.50 (11 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08

FLS | in at 90.45 (22 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08

FLS | in at 90.38 (33 shares) | 30% of position | 1/9/08
FLS | in at 90.65 (44 shares) | 40% of position | 1/11/08

FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

FMCN | in at 56.14 (36 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

FMCN | in at 56.20 (54 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

FMCN | in at 56.13 (71 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08


FSLR | in at 221.00 (5 shares) | 10% of position | 1/11/08

FSLR | in at 175.88 (11 shares) | 20% of position | 1/18/08

FWLT | in at 149.94 (7 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08

FWLT | in at 143.49 (14 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08
FWLT | in at 142.90 (21 shares) | 30% of position | 1/9/08
FWLT | in at 141.58 (28 shares) 40% of position | 1/11/08

GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

GOOG | in at 649.25 (3 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

GOOG | in at 631.68 (5 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

GOOG | in at 653.20 (6 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08



GS | in 214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
ISRG | in at 299.98 (7 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
ISRG | in at 271.73 (11 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
ISRG | out at 263.64 (21 shares) | net -467.45 (-7.8%)



LFC | in 80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

LULU | in at 38.45 (52 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

LULU | in at 36.93 (81 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
LULU | in at 34.00 (108 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08



MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08

MCD | in at 58.03 (52 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08

MCD | in at 57.08 (70 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08

MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.61 (58 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

MSFT | in at 33.45 (90 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

MSFT | in at 34.44 (116 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08

NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08

NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08

NKE | in at 62.11 (48 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08

NKE | in at 61.83 (65 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08



NTDOY.PK | in at 67.00 (15 shares) | 10% of position | 1/8/08

NTDOY.PK | in at 68.44 (29 shares) | 20% of position | 1/9/08
NTDOY.PK | in at 69.29 (43 shares) | 30% of position | 1/10/08
NTDOY.PK | in at 68.75 (58 shares) | 40% of position | 1/11/08

POT | in at 122.78 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/18/08

PTR | in 181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

RIMM | in at 99.83 (20 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
RIMM | in at 96.44 (31 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

RIMM | in at 98.55 (41 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08

STP | in at 66.81 (15 shares) | 10% of position | 1/11/08
STP | in at 70.22 (28 shares) | 20% of position | 1/14/08

STP | in at 56.96 (53 shares) | 30% of position | 1/18/08



VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08

VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08

VMW | in at 72.99 (41 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08

VMW | in at 74.50 (53 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08

The portfolio was up 1.3% today, but overall down 9.5% so far. Ouch.

No. 6 Potash: Meeting global demand

China and India are growing significantly. So is Brazil. Greater income means more meat consumption, and that's where Potash comes in with its top-line fertilizers for corn and soybeans. Stuff like that. I don't know much about Potash except that it's a cash cow, no farming puns intended.


















The stock has tripled since March, but even now is not far off its 50-day SMA. I wouldn't touch POT until it touches the 50-day.

Energy Trade: Crude Behavior

Crude oil is over $91. Turkey is poised to snuff out the Kurds (Iraq). Fear prevails and oil goes up. What's the trade?

• Yingli Green Energy (YGE) broke out to a new high above $34 on heavy volume. This is a stock I've followed for a few months, but never took a dip into the water. Of all the potential energy plays I like, YGE is the smallest cap but also one with the most potential to double. It was $20 in mid-September, but volume and price have been explosive.

• Potash had a great earnings report this week, and as long as ethanol is a factor, POT will keep rising. The Co says that global fertilzer demand remains at a high, and though the stock is at insane levels, the growth is real.

• PetroChina, even at $245, has been consolidating for the past week or so, and is now trading at its short-term (10-day) moving averages. Dare I say this is a buy? Perhaps, but only with a small position. PTR is the golden child of Big Red. In other words, practically money in the bank. Who has more leverage in the world than the Chinese government and economy?

• CNOOC (CEO) is my favorite of the oil and natural gas companies, but is trading well above its moving averages.

I would love to grab shares of YGE, but I'm out of dry powder unless I sell my positions in China Digital TV (stuck at 39) and Longtop Financial Technologies (can't stay above 30).

Potash is smokin' hot

Potash is still cashing in on the global agricultural bonanza. I passed on POT months ago, thinking it was mostly an ethanol play. Well ... POT's fertilizer is in demand overseas, too, and I've missed the boat.

Pupule says: Wait. At 109.42, Potash is above its 10-day SMA (107.88). It's run so high, so fast, I'm more inclined to see it dip near its 50-day SMA (93.32) before pulling the trigger.

Bargain shopping yields 3 fair prices

Flat market today. A pause to refresh. Pit stop. Calm before the storm. Whatever cliche works for you, the next question is, where does the market go from here? Do stocks simply ramp up or will the market just tread sideways until earnings?

I'm guessing it will be the latter. U.S. economy slowing, global economy still forging ahead. Speaking of the latter, I'm surprised with my lack of China exposure in my portfolio. At one time, I had small pieces of Focus Media and Sina. I got out of FMCN because of its internal accounting issues. The Co still hasn't reported Q2 results, and Nasdaq hasn't settled their situation. SINA is China's top portal, and I would feel OK about stepping back in at a healthy entry point.

Baidu? At these levels, no. No way. A trader's fantasy, though. Now I want to look at what may be in the bargain bin of A and A- grade stocks.

Amazon 89. Leveling off and volume has declined for the past three days since the Fed rate cuts. After blowout Q2 earnings, Georges Yared wrote that the mutual funds would be marching into this stock. Then the market got skittish and AMZN went to 69 on sub-prime meltdown day (August 16). Well, 69 to 89 in a month ain't too shabby. The stock is trading slightly above its 10-day SMA (87). Jeff Bezos rules online retailing, and someday, Outer Space. The stock usually trades like the black sheep of the A grade family. Lags behind, then explodes. Pupule says: Wait.

Apple 140. Down for a second day in a row, just fractionally, on lower volume. Still trading above its moving averages; 10-day SMA is 137. Yared writes that the days of AAPL below 150 are numbered. I remember thinking that the stock was stuck in the 90s forever. That was in April. And then I let go of my shares despite my complete and utter belief about the iPhone and the Co. Never again, never again. Pupule says: Wait.

Crocs 56. The effect of nationwide reports about the sandals and escalator accidents is beginning to subside. Though CROX was up 2% today to 56.45, it continues to trade below its 10-day SMA (57) and EMA (56.99). Today's gain came on lower volume — there's not much conviction on either side of the fence right now. Is this a great buying opportunity? Pupule says: Buy small.

Garmin 106. Stock was down nearly 1% today on lower volume. GRMN (106.75) is a hair above its 10-day SMA (106.44) and EMA (106.25). Like all the A graders, this is a great Co that is hard to resist. Pupule says: Buy small.

Research in Motion 90. Down 1.4% today, but well above its moving averages. 10-day SMA is 86, EMA is 87. Pupule says: Wait.

Baidu 277. The stock was up again today, fractionally. BIDU has traded higher in nine of the last 10 sessions. Insane. The stock is at nosebleed levels. The 10-day SMA is 242 and the 10-day EMA is 249. Pupule says: Wait.

Blue Nile 99. Bit of a surprise that NILE is holding up with strength here. Strength? Yesterday, the stock hit 98 and did a free-fall to 91. Looked like the end of a nice ride for me (from 80). But NILE gathered itself and longs pushed it back up to 95. Today, with continued solid volume, NILE hit 100 briefly before recording an all-time closing high. Stock has been up in eight of the last nine sessions and is trading far above moving averages. 10-day SMA is 86; 10-day EMA is 89. Pupule says: Wait.

Chipotle Mexican Grill 110. Down 1.8% after five up sessions in a row. Volume today was low, but the stock is still above its 10-day SMA (97) and 10-day EMA (107). Pupule says: Wait.

CNOOC Ltd. 148. Oil hit a new high at $83 per barrel, but CNOOC dipped 3.5% today. Inevitable after zooming from a low of 92 one month ago to a high of 155 yesterday. Still a ways to go before my favorite oil/natural gas stock is buyable. 10-day SMA: 134. 10-day EMA: 137. Pupule says: Wait.

Flowserve 77. The opportunity to buy this pump parts company was a week ago, when I wrote about its discounted price. FLS is finally joining the party, and in a big way. Down a skosh today, but still expensive. 10-day SMA: 72. 10-day EMA: 74. Pupule says: Wait.

Google 552. Like NILE and FLS, GOOG was terribly oversold not so long ago. Since disappointing the street with Q2 results (and only because the Co invested in a ton of new employees mostly in China), the stock languished until this week. Today, GOOG was up another 1% on steady volume. In fact, the stock has been up seven of the last eight trading days, and volume on that down day was miniscule. 10-day SMA: 529. 10-day EMA: 533. Pupule says: Wait. When Baidu cools off, so will Google.

lululemon athletica 39. Another day, another all-time high for LULU (41-plus mid-day). Volume was substantially down today, but today's increase (3.6%) defied the market's down day. Four up days in a row, lower volume ... might be time for the stock to take a breather. Then again, tomorrow's Friday, and some of the big houses might want to furnish their rooms with sparkling new lululemon goodies. Trading well above its 10-day averages. Pupule says: Wait.

McDonald's 54. A nice, reliable way to play China's booming economy. Mickey D was down 1% today, but volume was weak after several huge days on the upside since the Co's announcement of a 50% dividend hike. I sit in Starbucks, but I invest in Mickey D. 10-day SMA: 53. 10-day EMA: 50. Pupule says: Wait.

Nintendo 63. The stock languished in the 50s for a six-week stretch, doing its best CROX imitation. Now that the Co has announced increased supply of the Wii console for the US this holiday season, there's reason to be bullish again. Apparently, longs didn't wait, pushing the stock up in four out of five days. Today's 1.1% decline was due, and the trend is up, but it's better to be patient. 10-day SMA: 59. 10-day EMA: 60. Pupule says: Wait.

Potash 98. Instead of slowing momentum, Potash saw volume increase in today's massive 5.1% run-up. This stock never ceases to amaze me. I find myself writing the same things about POT that I did about CEO. 10-day SMA: 90. 10-day EMA: 91. Pupule says: Waaaait.

Synaptics 46. Huge move up came to a halt yesterday. Today, the stock sold off 3%. 10-day SMA: 44. 10-day EMA: 45. Close but no cigar. I like touchscreen, I like this Co, but ... Pupule says: Wait.

Under Armor 63. Having a high valuation (forward P/E of 48 versus CROX's forward P/E of 22) doesn't help UA sometimes. Down 2.9% today, five down days in the last six and nine downers in the last 12. Co needs at least one more blowout quarter to silence the bears, shorts and doubters. Until then, the stock will continue to snooze. UA (63.34) is trading below its 10-day EMA (63.60) and just above its 10-day SMA (63.26). Pupule says: Price is reasonable, but buy very small if at all.

Best buys

Up, down, happy frown

The rest of the market went up today. My porftolio stayed down. Apple down. Crocs barely up. Nintendo neutral. My tidbits of Under Armor (down slightly) and Baidu (up) don't affect the sum much. I'm waiting for a chance to get my A grade stock picks at a reasonable price, but it just ain't happening. Time to do a little studying.

Amazon 86. The stock jumped 3.5% today, keeping the AMZN rally alive and well. After looking dead in the 70s for such a long time, it's nice to see longs on the winning side of this growth story. Chinese are astute shoppers, at least the ones i know, and I have great optimism for the Co's growth in China. At this price, though, the stock is far above its 13-, 50- and 200-day moving averages (exponential and simple). Pupule says: Wait.

Apple 135. Low volume today as profit-takers overtook the stock on a -0.89% day. You know, the stock moved up yesterday from 131 to 138 on the announcement of the one-millionth iPhone sold. No other real reason or catalyst. That's life with Apple. At 135, AAPL is touching its 13-day MA, which makes it interesting. Do as I say, not as I did (bought at 135 and 144). Pupule says: Buy small, if at all.

Crocs 57. The stock is trading at 23 times next year's earnings. Compare that to Under Armor, which trades at 50 times. The only reason, and this is my gut feeling, that CROX isn't above 60 is that there is extreme enthusiasm for the Co's great fundamentals and growth on one hand, and extreme pessimism and hatred of the products on the other. Practically every day there's blogger or columnist who scribes his immense hatred of the poofy, hole-ridden Cayman sandals. Never mind the Co's robust future. Just blind hatred. That's why it's taking Crocs more time to ride up than it really should. Power to the patient. The stock is trading at its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Buy small.

Garmin 106. One of my fantasies is buy all the Garmin shares I possibly can, stuff them into a white pillowcase, fall asleep, and then wake up with an extra pillowcase filled with cool Garmin GPS stuff and hard cash. The stock jumped 2.4% today. I keep waiting for a bargain, but the stock drifts above its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Keep waiting.

Research in Motion 83. For a moment (yesterday), RIMM traded at its 13-day moving averages. Today, up nearly 1% and above the MA again. Pupule says: Wait.

Baidu 227. August 16. BIDU traded at 161, below its 13- and 50-day MA. It took the stock just three sessions to explode over both averages. It hasn't touched them since. Today's 4.1% run doesn't help. Can't say I'm surprised. As the U.S. economy slows, more and more investors and traders will look to China as a safe haven. Sorta safe. Pupule says: Wait, wait, wait.

Blue Nile 80. I picked up a few shares of the world's favorite online jewelry company today. I had a buy order on Friday at $75.50, but I pulled it when there were some complications in my trading account. Well, I regret it now. And yet, at 80, NILE is trading at its 13-day MA (and above the 50-day averages). All that insider selling kept the stock half buried for the past week. Funny how you can find jewels by digging a little. Pupule says: Buy small.

Chipotle Mexican Grill 103. My job took me to a press conference at a new place in Waikiki called Senor Frog's yesterday. I wasn't planning to stay afterward, but the food was free, the company was good, and man, it was worth it. Senor Frog's has only two U.S. locations, with plans to open another in Las Vegas. Other locations include Cancun. There's a pattern here, isn't there? If CMG is as good as Senor Frog's, I might be a believer. From what I know, CMG is more of a fast-food style than Senor Frog's, making fast, fresh Mexican food better than anyone. Anyway, CMG the stock was below its 13-day averages yesterday. Today, with the 3% bump up, the stock is above the MA. Pupule says: Wait.

CNOOC Ltd. 127. This stock is all over creation, goofier than a penny stock if you look at the chart. I still lament the major discount of a month ago, when CEO traded as low as 92 — below its 200-day MA. At 127 (up 2.8% today), it is way too expensive. Pupule says: Wait.

Flowserve 70. Up 1.9% today, now touching its 50-day MA. This stock has struggled and struggled for respect. Though its fundamentals and growth numbers are as good as most of my A- picks, the stock has closed above its 13-day MA only once since August 8. Pupule says: Strong buy.

Google 521. Another stock that can't get the motor started for long. Up 1.3% today, still trading within its 13-day MA. Will Google lose in China? That question should be banned. Pupule says: Buy.

Nintendo 57. In a rut for two whole months now. Why? Weak dollar. Strong yen. The stock doubled between November and June. Blah blah blah. Try out the Wii. This baby will sell like hotcakes, pancakes, wedding cakes, cake with coconut frosting, fudge syrup and a cherry on top, to boot. The DS is addicting. It is a legal drug that, unlike the Wii, can be carried near and far. I still think The Sims™ is coming to the Wii sooner than later. The stock is at its 13-day MA, the Co said last month that expanded production is not possible (yeth, that sucketh, I know), and the Co still won't allow the shares in Tokyo to be sold in regular increments. A minimum buy of Nintendo stock on the Tokyo Stock Exchange is 100 shares, or $41,000. Oh well. Pupule says: Buy small.

Potash 89. Up 2.1% today. Damn, did anyone really know that a fertilizer stock would be ballistic like this? This is a pre-split 267. Holy crapoli. At this price, the stock is above its MA. Pupule says: Wait.

Under Armor 62. Down a skosh (-0.37%) today. With a forward P/E of 50, seems like nobody is willing to fork up for the expensive price of the stock. UA is trading below its 13-day MA now, trending toward its 50-day MA. Of all the A- picks, I'm least bullish on UA, which has a history of hit-and-miss execution on earnings. Seems like a logical buyout for Nike. How about a merger with Crocs and their secret-recipe sensation Croslite? That would give Nike a serious run for its money. Pupule says: Buy.

Best buys

Where does the maze lead us?

Subprime mortgages down the toidy. Job reports reflect major economic slowdown. Are things really as bad as they seem?

Unemployment is 4.5% and growth may slow to 2%. Meanwhile, growth in China is 11.9%. Hmm...

I'm far from being an alarmist, and though I refrained from buying today, sniffing around for bargains is never a fruitless pursuit. Though several of my fundamentally sound growth favorites — A and A- grade stocks — are at reasonable prices, I'm going to wait until Monday at the earliest to enter. If there's another dip early Monday, my spider-sense will be tingling.

Here's to the hunt.

Apple 131. Yesterday, it was the iPhone price cut. Today, the jobs report. In just three days, AAPL has sunk from 145 to an intra-day low today of 130. A shortie's paradise. At 131, AAPL is below its one-year 13- and 50-day simple and exponential moving averages. Pupule says: Buy small, wait for more discounting.

Amazon 84. Even with the dip, AMZN is trading far above its moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

Crocs 56. Actually, 56.92. Since its blowout Q2 earnings report and raised guidance, CROX has traded mostly in the 55-60 range, but the market's vulnerabilities have opened the stock up to major dips. At 56, CROX is at its 13-day moving averages, but patience could reap bargain prices. Pupule says: Buy small and be patient.

Garmin 105. The stock came down and touched its 13-day MA today (102), but at 105 is a skosh too high. Love the Co, but the stock isn't in line yet. Pupule says: Wait.

Research in Motion 80. The Blackberry Cult makes more and more sense to me, yes, me ... a guy who didn't have a cellphone until 1999 (work requirement). I didn't had a cellphone with photo capability until a few months ago, and I still haven't touched an iPhone or any other newfangled fancy thingamajig. (I can't believe that I walked into the Apple store last week and didn't even look at an iPhone.) And yet, with everything that the Crackberry can do, I can understand the addiction. Beats carrying around a PC. As for the stock, it now touches its 13-day averages. Pupule says: Buy small, wait for big discounts.

Baidu 213. With the U.S. economy slowing to a snail's pace, China is obviously the place to be. However, at 213, BIDU is too pricey. Far above its moving averages, but trending closer. Pupule says: Wait.

Blue Nile 75. The insider selling has compounded the stock's problems. I'm still bullish based on the company's growth rates and fundamentals, as well as its first-mover position in the online jewelry pocket. At 75, NILE is at a major discount, far below its 13-day MA and almost below its 50-day averages. Pupule says: Strong buy.

Chipotle Mexican Grill 101. Stock is now touching its 13-day averages, far above 50-day MA. Pupule says: Wait.

CNOOC Ltd. 122. The stock barely moved despite today's 250-point drop on the Dow. At 122, much too pricey, well above all its moving averages. If you got in at 92-110 in mid-August, you are a genius. Pupule says: Wait, wait, wait.

Flowserve 69. Pumps and meters are not sexy, and that's the only reason why this brilliant company is trading at its 50-day MA, and far below its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Strong buy.

Google 519. Recent gains have evaporated, but the overall picture is bright. China. Cellphones. Cellphones in China. The Chinese rely on cellphones for almost all their internet access. Google isn't beloved by citizens of the Middle Kingdom, so the Co simply BUYS the love. It is working. The stock is trading between its 13- and 50-day MA. Pupule says: Buy cautiously, conservatively.

Nintendo 58. The stock was between its 13- and 50-day MA for a couple of days. Not now. At 58, NTDOY.PK is above its averages. Pupule says: Wait.

Potash 87. The stock is finally back to earth, sorta. At 86, POT is touching its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Buy small.

Under Armor 63. One of the few stocks in the green today. At 63, UA is scraping its 13-day MA, well above its 50-day MA. Forward P/E is 50, compared to CROX's 23. Guess which stock I prefer? Pupule says: Buy cautiously.

Today's best buys

Bargain Bin shopping time

It is nearly mid-afternoon (1:30 pm Eastern time) on a deceptively quiet afternoon in the marketplace. Do you know where your stocks are? It's time for another look at the bargain bin and see if any of my A and A- grade stock picks happen to be there.

Apple 134. AAPL is down 11 points off its recent high, 22 points above its mortage meltdown low of three weeks ago. Four huge days up were met by the selloff yesterday and today, triggered by the Co's announcement of lower iPhone prices, but mostly (I think) a lot of profit-taking. Yesterday's volume was major (83 million shares), but today pullback is on just 42 million so far. Now that the stock has dropped close to its 13-day simple and exponential moving averages, selling will dry up soon enough. The iPod Touch is a whole new realm of techno ecstacy. It will be quite a merry Christmas this year. Pupule says: Wait a little more.

Amazon 84. On a roll, up for a fourth day in a row. Well off its high of 88 and far above its moving averages. Intriguing to see how much and how soon AMZN will make inroads in the Middle Kingdom. Pupule says: Wait, wait, wait.

Crocs 57. Downgraded to 'hold' by Zacks today, the stock is up 3.3% anyway. Yesterday, CROX traded at a low of 54.48, well below its 13-day moving averages. Today's gain means the stock is right at its 13-day averages. Pupule says: Buyable, but not a bargain.

Garmin 106. I keep waiting for this baby to pull back to a decent price, but it just won't. Trading at an all-time high now, but decreasing volume says that GRMN may be ready for a breather. Pupule says: Worth waiting for.

Research in Motion 83. Two days of declines were met with today's fractional gain (so far). trading above its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Wait.

Baidu 219. Uh-uh. Today's miniscule pullback in China's favorite search engine is on much lower volume (after two days of major upside volume.) BIDU is a trader's fantasy, an investor's temptation. Pupule says: Wait.

Blue Nile 79. Insider selling has pissed off some longs and fed the bears. Here, NILE is well below its 13-day MA and near its 50-day MA. After significant volume on two down days (Tuesday and yesterday), today's minor gains come on mediocre volume. I'm not convinced the selloff is done, but I wouldn't be shy either. Pupule says: Buy.

Chipotle Mexican Grill 104. CMG is pulling back, but the heights here are still dizzying. Pupule says: Wait.

CNOOC Ltd. 122. For so long, CEO was available at true bargain prices. From August 10 to 22, the stock traded below its 13-day MA, and on several of those days, was below its 50-day MA. Now it's just too expensive even without today's 2.5% gain. Pupule says: Wait.

Flowserve 71. FLS is trading below its 50-day SMA, still a decent price. Pupule says: Not a bargain, but the price is right.

Google 523. GOOG is down more than 4 bucks (less than 1%) so far today, but the gains of the two previous days leave the stock above all moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

Nintendo 55. Today, NTDOY.PK is trading up at about 58, which leaves the stock right at its 13-day moving averages. Yesterday's price was better, of course. Pupule says: Buy small, if anything.

Potash 89. Pricey here. POT hasn't been a bargain since August 21. Pupule says: Wait.

Under Armor 63. Short interest in UA was 50% just one month ago, but is down to "only" 32%. Today's 2.1% pullback brings the stock below its 13-day moving averages. Pupule says: Buy cautiously, not in bulk.

Today's best buys

Another pullback, another opportunity?

Traders are in fat city, while investors are in another sea of red. The best place to be is in cash, unless your skills are good enough to trade some while sitting on a long position.

What the FOMC talks about, whatever is read in its minutes, whatever fear there is about no fed rate cut ... until I hear that we're doomed to a recession, it's all fluctuation.

If this is another buying opportunity, then my A and A- grade stocks are worth a look. They all have solid fundamentals and excellent growth. The market has tended to sell off for days at a time, so I don't expect to find any bargains. Not yet.

AMZN down 3.1%, now 76.22
Here, the stock has returned in the vicinity of its 13- and 50-day simple and exponential moving averages, but not in an ideal range. Getting close, though. Pupule says: Wait.

AAPL down 4.1%, now $126
The stock is in a fairly good place now, right in the midst of its SMA and EMA. Could AAPL fall to $111 as it did two weeks ago? Of course. This is a stupid market, but one that must be respected. I'd go in cautiously, if anything. Pupule says: Buy.

CROX down 4.4%, now $57
Since dipping to $44 two Thursdays ago, the stock has zoomed up with the best of the growth babies. This is the seventh session in a row that CROX finished above its SMA and EMA. Even with today's pullback, best to be patient. I love my Crocs, but it is undeniably volatile. Be a smart shopper. Pupule says: Wait.

GRMN down 5.4%, now $96
Down four of the past five sessions. Stock now trades below its 13-day MAs. Worth watching closely. Buyable here, but a bargain could be around the corner. Pupule says: Buy.

RIMM down 4.8%, now $77
Trading just above its MAs. Patience. Pupule says: Wait.

BIDU down 5.7%, now $199
Nice pullback on slightly lower volume today. Stock is still above MAs, but moving in the right direction for a smart shopper. Pupule says: Wait.

CMG down 2.4%, now $97
Nice. The stock is now below its 13-day MAs. Avocado and dairy prices be damned, this Co is great. Pupule says: Buy.

CEO down 8.3%, now $113
That was quick. The stock was up to a mid-day high of $125 yesterday, and traders took their profits today. Can't blame them. The stock was $92 two weeks ago. Now CEO is below its 50-day SMA and moving closer to its other MAs. Inch in slowly. Pupule says: Buy.

FLS down 1.9%, now $69
Despite blowout earnings, the stock never moved above its MAs when the market bounced back last week. Trading right within its MAs now. Pupule says: Buy.

GOOG down 1.3%, now $506
Like FLS, Google wasn't hit hard today. Like FLS, the stock has a lid on it and hasn't moved above its MAs recently. Not exactly a bargain, but a fair price here. Pupule says: Buy.

NTDOY.PK down 2.7%, now $57
Coming back down to its MAs. Watch closely. Pupule says: Wait.

POT down 3.2%, now $82
More like $82.98. Starting to return to its MAs, stock is now touching its 13-day SMA and EMA. Pupule says: Buy.

UA down 1.4%, now $62
Plunging deeper, now below its 13-day MAs, but well above its 50-day MAs. Careful here. Inch in. Pupule says: Buy.

No bargains left, except for . . .

It's official in Quarryville. All of my A and A- grade stock picks are out of buying range.

From Apple to RIMM, Baidu to Under Armor, they're all on fire and too hot to touch. No, wait. There is one ... no, make that two stocks that are still trading within 13- and 50-day simple and exponential moving averages (one-year chart).

FLS 70. Flowserve, with its blowing Q2 earnings, has been somewhat slow to follow the bull run of the past week. In fact, FLS sat at 69, with barely a gain, for almost the entire day. The stock is 15% up from its bottom last Thursday, but trading below its 13- and 50-day SMA and EMA. Still a steal at this price. Pupule says: Strong buy.

GOOG 515. Even with today's modest improvement, the stock is still trading within its moving averages. There's so much action in and around the company, from wireless advertising to China inroads, that I really don't know why the stock has been relatively stagnant. It is up from the low of 480 last week, but my guess is that the big boys and retail buyers are still punishing the Co for missing Q2 estimates. So the Co spent a little more to hire quality employees in China (and elsewhere). This is good for those of us who want shares on the cheap. They might remain cheap until Q3 earnings come out. Pupule says: Buy.

Blue Nile was buyable until today, when it ran up nearly 5% to 86. I hate to miss the boat on this great young Co, but patience is key. I'll wait for a pullback. And cross my fingers.

Under Armor had a slight gain today, but its moving averages are starting to catch up. At 65, UA is well off its all-time high of 73, but today's volume was extremely light. I'll wait for the stock rather than chase it.

If Bank of America's rescue of Countrywide Financial yesterday after the market wasn't affirmation enough, I don't know what else would be. Next week should be interesting. The market is relatively calm for a change, but if the street pours into tech stocks, the gadgets might soar again. Then I might be wishing I'd picked up some Garmin and Rimm, and more Apple.

Promoted: No denying Potash

I thought Potash was a great company but heading in a downward spiral sooner or later. I just don't trust this whole ethanol industry stuff, not with oil prices dropping and farmers relying on subsidies, which in turn go into Potash's coffers.

Fertilizer. I just can't deny it any more. Ethanol seems about ready to stay, and Potash makes great fertilizer. I can't hold a grudge. Potash deserves an A- rating, not a B+. Here's a look at the Q2 numbers.

• P/E 33, forward P/E 21, PEG 2.38
• Profit margin: 20.1%
• Operating margin 28%
• Return on equity 22.9%
• Quarterly revenue growth (yoy) 47.9%
• Quarterly earnings growth (yoy) 63%
• Operating cash flow $1.4 billion
• Levered free cash flow $620 million

The only negative is total debt ($1.4 billion) while total cash is $449 million. But it is manageable with so much growth and revenue coming in.

Interestingly enough, I read a month or so ago that phosphorus supply is in decline and the world might be out of the stuff in 50 years. Phosphorus is used in fertilizer, so this is a potentially killer problem. No kidding.

Guess what? Phosphorus is plentiful in human urine. The first Co to develop phosphorus out of the wee-wee on a huge scale gets kudos from me. Or maybe I'll develop the concept, build a Co and go public. Name: Liquid Gold. Ticker: PEEE.

Potash will probably beat me to it.

Shopping list: FLS, GOOG, NILE still good buys

For one day, I'll quit with the whining and pat myself on the back. I stuck to discipline, avoided stocks out of their moving averages and was quickly rewarded. Nintendo, which I grabbed more shares of at 55.75 yesterday, had a nice jump to 57.70 today.

Sure, NTDOY.PK simply follows the action of its big brother stock, 7974, on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. But it feels good to be under control and buy a stock at a wise entry point. It wasn't just Nintendo, of my 'Buy' and 'Strong buy' summaries yesterday, that moved up today. But first, a look at my A grade picks that were all on 'Wait' status a day ago.

AMZN 77. So many lovers, so many haters. The stock is well off both its high of 86 and last week's bottom of of 70. Like all my A and A- picks, there are great growth margins and numbers, period. Not a dud among them. But as far as an entry point goes, AMZN is still hovering above its 13- and 50-day simple and exponential moving averages. Today's pullback helps, but we're not there yet. Pupule says: Wait.

AAPL 131. What do we call investors who have ridden Apple to a million bucks? Applionaires? I don't believe in "all in" strategies. There are just too many great growth stocks to not be diversified. But AAPL is absolutely my favorite, both in a Peter Lynchian way (I've owned a PowerBook for three years) and in a fundamental way. The stock is well above its recent bottom of 111, but a long ways from its high of 148. Today's drawback is nice, but like Amazon, the stock is still floating above moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

CROX 56. The pullback from yesterday's mid-day high of 60 is no surprise. Since the blowout Q2 earnings, the stock has not gone more than three days without a pullback. When the stock declined since late July, it has pulled back for two to three days in four of five occasions, including the current drop. In other words, this ain't no surprise. Volume also declined substantially today. Is this time to buy more Crocs? It's tempting, but the answer is no. CROX is still trading well above its moving averages. Some consolidation will be good for Crocs lovers. Pupule says: Wait.

GRMN 101. Some consolidation is going on here. The stock is up nicely from last week's bottom of 86 and closing in on the all-time high of 105. Trading above its moving averages. Bite the bullet and be patient. Pupule says: Wait.

RIMM 80. Like CROX, RIMM had an astounding run in the past week, from 61 to 84. This pullback is healthy and today's volume was miniscule. Just a brief breather for the hottest runner in the marathon. And yet, the stock is ridiculously out of range, well above moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

The A graders all pulled back, like I expected. But they're all still better off waiting for than grabbing right now.

BIDU 203. Another sprinter has pulled up for a pit stop. One week ago, Baidu was trading below its 13- and 50-day MA. Now, its way above. A trader's fantasy, but for us long-term investors, 203 is much too high right now. Consolidation in effect. Pupule says: Wait.

CEO 115. In the words of the immortal philosophical giant, Homer Simpson, I say of CNOOC, "Dohhh!!" Loved the stock at its bottom (92). Loved it at 104 earlier this week. Still liked it at 109 yesterday. Today? Ouch. Owee. CEO gapped up before the market opened and held its ground. P/E of 11. Insanely nice. After last week's mid-day low of 92, CEO has gapped up each morning for the past five sessions. Still looks like a wild tech stock on the chart, but it's an oil and natural gas Co with huge upside in China. However, CEO now trades above its moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

CMG 101. Solid consolidation here. The stock went from a post-earnings high of 114 down to a mortage-meltdown bottom of 92. At 101, the stock is trading at the high end of its 13-day MA. Tiny volume today. I think the stock is ready to move again, but this ain't cheap. A great shopper hunts for cheap. Pupule says: Wait.

FLS 69. Great earnings didn't help the stock much during last week's meltdown. Still, Flowserve is rising from last week's low of 62. The high of 79 is still a long way off, and the stock is trading at the lower edge of its 13- and 50-day MA. Up today just 71¢. Pupule says: Strong buy.

GOOG 512. The company is in partnership mode in China, which is a great thing for longs. These guys don't screw around. Mistakes happen, but most of the time, Google wins the hunt. I wonder how long Baidu can fend off the Googmonster. Stock is in the midst of its 13- and 50-day MA. Pupule says: Buy.

NILE 82. Nice and easy, compared to wild and crazy when the Co announced incredible earnings for Q2. Stock is nowhere near its high of 98 and now trades near the high side of its moving averages. Gotta feeling this won't stay cheap for much longer. Pupule says: Buy.

NTDOY.PK 57. The stock has been the slowest to rebound in the past week, but today's 2% move to 57.75 makes me (and my nephew) happy. It was a fair buy yesterday when I got more shares. Today? The stock is now above its moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

POT 85. I remember listening to Potash's CEO talk on Mad Money and came away thinking ... what if ethanol bombs out in the next year? That was a few months ago, and POT blew out the Q2 estimates. The stock pulled back today, but after hitting a bottom of 71 last week, a pit stop is timely. Below its MA last week, above its MA today. Pupule says: Wait.

UA 64. Trades with some similarity to CROX. UA has traded down two days in a row, but shrinking volume is a tell. Won't surprise me if UA rockets tomorrow, but I'm not jumping in. The stock is still trading above its MA. Pupule says: Wait.

Double-checking the shopping list

On Friday, I did some mental preparation (as opposed to physical prep via barf bag for another turbulent ride) by staking out some price targets if stocks plunged again.

Well, Nasdaq is actually up 7 points today, but a large majority of the strongest growth stocks have been stunted. One of my favorites, CROX, actually fell from $59 at the open to a low of $52, but I missed the bargain-buying opportunity. It was bedtime for me (4-7 a.m. Hawaii time). Oh well.

Here's a look at my A- and B+ stock lists and where the targets compare as of 1:50 p.m. Eastern time.





[A-] Amazon (AMZN), Friday price 76, target 70 ... today's low 76, currently 77
[A-] Apple (AAPL), now 131, target 125 ... today's low 128, currently 132
[A-] Baidu (BIDU), now 198, target 175 ... today's low 186, currently 191
[A-] Crocs (CROX), now 58, target 54 ... today's low 52.50, currently 55
[A-] Foster Wheeler (FWLT), now 110, target 98 ... today's low 101, currently 101
[A-] Garmin (GRMN), now 98, target 88 ... today's low 95, currently 95
[A-] Google (GOOG), now 503, target 480 ... today's low 502, currently 507
[A-] Nintendo (NTDOY.PK), now 56, target 55 ... today's low n/a, current bid 57.20, current ask 57.50
[A-] Research in Motion (RIMM), now 218, target 206 ... today's low 213, currently 217
[A-] Under Armor (UA), now 64, target 60 ... today's low 62, currently 63

Of these 10 A- picks, only one has already hit the target (CROX).





[B+] China Medical Parts (CMED), now 32, target 30 ... today's low 27, currently 28
[B+] CNOOC Ltd. (CEO), now 113, target 111 ... today's low 109, currently 109
[B+] Darden Intl. (DAR), now 8.03, target 7.50 ... today's low 7.82, currently 8.03
[B+] Flowserve (FLS), now 68, target 65 ... today's low 67, currently 68
[B+] Focus Media (FMCN), now 39, target 35 ... today's low 37, currently 37
[B+] Gmarket (GMKT), now 22, target 21 ... today's low 21.55, currently 22.32
[B+] HDFC Bank (HDB), now 81, target 73 ... today's low 81, currently 83
[B+] Intercontinental Exch. (ICE), now 153, target 140 ... today's low 148, currently 152
[B+] Opsware (OPSW), sold to HPQ at 14.25
[B+] Potash Corp. (POT), now 85, target 77 ... today's low 81, currently 82
[B+] Precision Castparts (PCP), now 137, target 125 ... today's low 134, currently 135
[B+] Salesforce.com (CRM), now 39, target 27 ... today's low 38, currently 40
[B+] SanDisk (SNDK), now 53, target 49 ... today's low 53, currently 53
[B+] Sina Corp. (SINA), now 42, target 40 ... today's low 40.85, currently 41.63

Of the 14 B+, two Chinese stocks hit targets. CMED is a tough call even at 28. CEO, though, trades at only 11 times earnings and is a solid oil/gas play out of China. Plenty of growth ahead as an off-shore driller providing energy for a booming economy.

Gmarket of South Korea is another nice company on this radar. The robust earnings report of last week was nice, but I want to examine GMKT's potential competition across East Asia a lot more closely.

Overall, there's no point in climbing into a plane when weather is stormy. If anything, small ball (chiseling in with small positions) could work here, but I'm going to wait it out before buying more.

Pupule Paul is long AAPL, BIDU, CROX, NTDOY.PK, UA, FMCN and SINA.