Say it ain't so

Bianca Beauchamp

4:22 am (Hawaii) This can't be true. The Fly, Le Fly, retiring from the market? He may be convinced, but I say no. Why? He's had an emotionally draining few days recently. If he were to "retire" after a few boring days, successful or not, that would be a sticker. Not this. Not when he's exhausted, busy and tagged with the daily grind of being a parent/megamillionaire trader/interweb boss.

Other than that, the Dow is +255, Nas +41, S&P +23, all up 1.6 to 2.0%

I haven't tried anything since selling DGP in premarket. Things are positive for bulls, but the stuff I like are waffley. Indecisive. Lack of conviction from the buy side. I'll stay on the sideline in that case. I wanted to re-enter DGP, maybe even enter AGQ. But the run may be done for the morning, maybe the day. DGP sits above 55, which refuses to break. AGQ is sitting in the 126-127 area.

FAZ stays above 56. I'm looking for 50, greedy pig that I am.

My Regular watch list is 86% green, 14% red. Hasn't been that bullish since ... ever. AGQ, MCP, FAS, CHGS, GNK, YOKU, PSLV, MWW, SLV, DGP, YZC, SINA, UCO up 5.5% or more. Volume? Not a factor yet, but these steep gains have me thinking that we may be at a pivot point today, or we had one yesterday or Friday.


Bianca Beauchamp Black Transformation from Martin Perreault on Vimeo.

Beware, the streets could become lawless

2 pm (Hawaii) No sheriff, no protection. Not that feeble-minded innocents are safe in any market, but if the Fed has a shutdown of any sort, the SEC won't be fully loaded. (Please save your puns for another time.)

My guess is that the naked short sellers of the world are salivating fantastically at the prospect of a Fed shutdown. Some serious scamming could go on. Another flash crash? You bet. Or, I would not bet against it. The market is at nosebleed levels with the threat of no QE3, still a few weeks from quarterly earnings reports and plenty of complacency among traders. Hedgies would love nothing more than to short every long's ass, then load the truck with discounted shares of any decent stock and ride back up.

I've been dozing off the past couple of days regarding trading. Missed a potential winner here and there, but all in all not worried about that stuff. I got my sleep and there's a massive workload, so first things first. Catching up on today's action...

AAPL stuck at 336-340 today, now 337.80 minutes before afterhours trading ends.

Silver still bouncing higher. EXK at 11.96, near its high of the day (+3%). I sold at 8.55 just a few weeks ago. Oh well.

PAAS (+0.5%) and SLW (+0.4%) moderate gains, while SLV was flat (+0.05%). Gold is quiet today after a breakthrough earlier in the week.

WNR is down 2.9% to 18.17 after a strong run. Natural-born profit-taking is all.

YZC is still killing bears and shorts, up 4.1% to 39.41. Coal continues to explode and China needs it.

MCP up 12.4% to 69.73. CHGS up 9.8%. MWW up 3.8%. UCO up 3.1% as crude settles above $110/barrel. I should've bought a small slice of UCO just to hedge against higher gasoline prices for my car. A hundred shares of UCO would've been sufficient. Oh well.

53% of my watch list is green after swinging all over the place early in the morning. A daytrader's paradise, it seems. Caution and protection still strongly advised.

CNBC: Japan rattled by major quake; stocks, dollar and oil fall (Apr 7 2011)

Wrestling with Oil

8:45 am (Hawaii) It's the 1st of April, but there is hardly a fool in the market today. 64% of my watch list is green. With so many bear plays on my list, 64% is pretty close to Pure Bull Pandemonium. 

Oil is breaking higher. WNR, Le Fly's first oil-refinery play since the Japan disaster, is above 18. Holy cash cow! WNR is up 6.6% to 18.15, a HOD, after closing below 17 yesterday. I'm still in bed, observing the world through my laptop, and haven't watched or read any global news yet. Has Libya blown up? Have the Saudis raised the price of crude? 

I see UCO up 2.5% to 58.47. APC is up 1% to 82.77. But really, refiners have been the play of intelligence. Fly was right about the need for crude particularly when Japan went into rebuild mode and WNR is a logical play no matter what else happens bullish or bearish. 

YZC, that crazy China coal play, is up 4.6% to 37.96. As oil costs rise, the Chinese continue looking to manufacture cheap energy. Coal is logical. 

Also up: HAIN (+3.2%, 33.34), NFLX (+2.4%, 243.60), MOS (+2.2%, 80.47), LVS (+3.7%, 43.77), F (+2.6%, 15.29). 

AAPL opened above 351 (while I slept soundly), but has retreated again and is below 348. I've been busy attending other matters this week, but managed to catch a piece of Fast Money late last night on the DVR. The traders are skeptical about AAPL going higher from here due to the (perception of?) parts shortages due to Japan. The one trader who I tend to agree a little more with on this was Brian Kelly, who emphasized the huge demand for Apple products (iPad 2). What's a couple more weeks of waiting? I agree. AAPL won't hit 400 as soon as most of us thought, but it'll get there. 

Big losers with 75 minutes left in the session: AZK (-4.6%, 6.70), EDZ (-4.2%, 17.12), CHGS (-3.9%, 2.92), PSUN (-3%, 3.51), TVIX (-2.7%, 35.30), GG (-1.4%, 49.11). The metals were flat earlier, but have filled up the red side of my watch list. Besides AZK, there's EXK (-0.7%, 9.75), SLW (-0.8%, 43.00) and PHYS, GLD are slightly down. GLD actually rallied some after gapping down to 138 at the open. 

It's obviously a trader's market. If I can get more comfortable with sectors like crude oil — UCO would be a great hedge to the rising cost of gas ($4.19 in Honolulu) — it wouldn't be so hard to get a grasp of. 

Burn rubbuh

(Art: Jasper Goodall)

12:15 pm (Hawaii). UCO fell off a cliff for several sessions before gapping today with crude oil's rally. On the daily, UCO has traded technically (stochastics) for the past month. Today's MACD is inconclusive, however, and volume was small. At 53, it is mired in a range (47-57) that makes a buy here edgeless. Violence in the Middle East is practically priced into the market. Obama isn't about to make a grand decision while in Rio. Maybe a grand gesture, but the White House has been loathe to assume USA-as-world-police status.

So, the 7.1% move in UCO was great for yesterday's buyers. I'll keep watch from the rafters.

66% of my watch list is in the green afterhours. CRR, another oil-related play, is up 6.5%. ENY, a Canadian oil play, is up 3.7%. VLO +2.3%. Even OIH is up 3.4%. WNR (refiner) is plus 1.5%.

With food prices soaring, Ag is another play. MOS is up 2%.

Metals? FCX bounced 4.2%. NGD is up 3.8%. SLW is +1.7% to 39.09. EXK +1.3% to 8.42. X is +1.6%.

Most of the market gains, however, slipped away in the afternoon. Still a positive day for DJIA (+161, +1.4%), Nasdaq (+19, +0.7%) and S&P 500 (+16, +1.3%). Not convinced just yet, though. If Japan continues to make progress on the Fukushima nuclear reactors, screens will remain green. But it smells like a dead cat, and it is obvious that many traders get out before the closing bell. It's a nibbler's market.

Bombing out today were TVIX (55.97, -7%), which actually rallied off its low of 53.12. LULU (-4.2%), EDZ (-4.1%), VXX (-3.1%), CMG (-2.6%), AMZN (-2.1%), QID (-2%) all bit dust today.

The Globe & Mail: Fukushima 50 risking their lives to try to prevent meltdown (Mar 17 2011)
MarketWatch: UN backs no-fly zone, strikes in Libya (Mar 17 2011)
MarketWatch: Oil futures top $103 after UN vote on Libya (Mar 17 2011)
Rohan Clarke: Less money, more money — QE3 in the headlights (Mar 17 2011)
Charles Rotblut: Bullish sentiment craters (Mar 17 2011)
BBC: Cable reaches Japan nuclear plant (Mar 17 2011)
Majoni* Celebrations: Wearables that contribute and show support (Mar 17 2011)
WSJ: Retailers push Amazon on taxes (Mar 17 2011)
IBD: Lululemon falls as demand outpaces inventory (Mar 17 2011)
WCSI News Talk: Former Shell Oil prez predicts $5 gas in 2012 (Mar 17 2011)
IBD: Yanzhou Coal, Carbo Ceramics up (Mar 17 2011)

(photo: Carbo Ceramics)