Greece chopped, but finnies gain

11:13 am (Hawaii) Bad news for Greece today, but the financials moved higher anyway. Citi was up 3.4% and FAZ has pulled back to 49+. FAZ ran from 45 to 52+ last week.

WSJ: S&P's Mrsnik: Hard to see Greece restructuring without default (June 13 2011)

Citi 5-day chart

Citi 1-year chart

FAZ year to date

Friday forkway

3:15 am (Hawaii). Up. Down. Left. Right. Spend. Hoard.

America is at an economic crossroads today. Depending on who you believe, we are on the brink of prosperity (again). So says Alan Greenspan, per CNBC this morning. "Momentum" is with the improving U.S. economy, he says. Then you have precious metal bugs, some who are heavily invested in gold, silver, ammunition and years worth of canned food, who believe the U.S. dollar is doomed.

All I care about is making a smart trade. One at a time. I've missed the ride up with AAPL despite my bullishness about the stock and company. With 20 minutes until the non-farm payrolls report, AAPL is trading a buck higher in premarket at 360+. It was a couple of weeks ago, when Steve Jobs was spotted at the doctor's office, when I got out at this price. I knew the public would overreact. "He's at the doctor? OMG!" Well, shares dipped much lower from there as hedge funds took profits. Now things are so much better, a catalyst is in play and a new trading range is being formed.

Premarket, 60% of my watch list is green, 22% red, 18% flat.

NGD +6.4%, UCO +2%, EXK +1.7%, PAAS 1.4%, USO +1.1%, FCX +1%, SLW +0.9%, SLV +0.8%

TVIX -7.5%, CLNE -1%, GMCR -0.9%, CSTR -0.8%, OPEN -0.7%, LVS -0.6%, VZ -0.4%, QID -0.3%

Update, 3:41 am (Hawaii). Non-farms payroll report was ho-hum. In line, according to CNBC.

AAPL has retraced more than half of its premarket gain, now 360.33. I don't feel confident about entering here, however. Wait-and-see mode.

Update, 3:50 am (Hawaii). Watch list still mostly green: 51% positive, 33% neg, 16% neutral. Crude oil futures are above 103. Is there a surer bet out there? Maybe AAPL. The assurance from Libya's rebel leader that they will fight to the death probably put the spike in today's price.

NGD +2.4%, UCO +2.3%, USO +1.5%, PAAS +1.4%, EXK +1.2%, SLW +0.9%, SLV +0.8%, LULU +0.7%, FCX +0.6%, APC +0.5%

GS -1.3%, C -1.1%, GMCR -0.9%, CSTR -0.8%, OPEN -0.7%, TVIX -0.6%

Update, 3:59 am (Hawaii). Divergence in gold and silver. While gold, Dow Jones, S&P and Nasdaq futures have eroded in the past hour, silver headed higher. Weirdness.

Update, 4:02 am (Hawaii). Watch list bullishness declining still. 47% green, 35% red, 18% flat. 

Update, 4:22 am (Hawaii). Crude oil is a tempting play (again), but it's important to remember that many of the oil crises of years past were stopped in their tracks by the presence of the US armed forces. Total Investor noted this yesterday in a thorough examination of crude prices before and after American intervention. UCO dipped to about 54.50, close to the 50% retracement of today's premarket gain, but has bounced and is now back up to 54.80. Considerable as a daytrade. but probably too late now.


Update, 5:16 am (Hawaii). Not sure who the gold analyst/bull was, but he showed up on CNBC 30 or 45 minutes ago and noted that Mark Haynes had been negative on gold when he was on the show several months ago. Haynes was pissed, but his body language said it all: it was the truth.

Silver futures chart online is behind most other charts by 15 minutes. This divergence began as silver hit $35. Not sure why, but anything is possible. Gold was fresh and live, but not silver. SLW cracked 45 for the first time, making me regret selling at 43.10 on Wednesday. EXK, PAAS, SLV also doing extremely well.

NGD, UCO, and now TVIX atop my list. So is NFLX, which had been beaten down recently. Not touching that, but the metal plays and UCO continue to appeal to me.

50% retracement levels (on today's gains): SLW 44.37, UCO 54.44. SLW actually dipped to retrace level at 44.36, but I froze up. On cue, SLW ran up immediately back toward 45. My loss.

Hi Ho Silver!

Update, 6:02 am (Hawaii). Most mornings, I'd be in bed by now, peacefully asleep. This time, even without Red Bull, I'm wide awake. The precious metals, silver in particular, are screaming out loud. It's an ecstatic sound. I'm not in, no skin in, all cash. But it's an amazing move up for silver. It makes me remember that though the masses (like me) are interested now, the huge move in the past year probably means silver is nearing a top at some point. Could be next week. Maybe next month or next year. But irrational exuberance is nearing.

EXK exploded above 9 to an HOD of 9.22, now at 9.10. PAAS +3.1%. SLV +2.8%. SLW +2.2%, well off its HOD of 45.13, now 44.68. I want a position at 44.37 (50% retracement of today's gain).

In all, my watch list is 56% green, 41% red. Markets are generally slightly red. AAPL is back in the green, just barely, at 359.59. Needed a breather after that nice move the past couple of days.

UCO still appealing, though I wouldn't want to hold over the weekend if naval ships from around the world converge on Libya. But who knows? Maybe Quadaffi blows up every oil field out of spite.

Update 3:35 pm (Hawaii). Selloff. Upside for precious metals, crude oil. And it would've been more extreme if not for the strange moves. Artificial intelligence, indeed.

Saved by the bell?

Does it matter?

AAPL may never see 350 again

Movin' on up no matter the manipulation stateside

Up up up

Absolutely untainted by equity manipulation

Pump on Fast Money didn't hurt either

All indications point toward continued stampede-like behavior in crude and PMs. How did JP Morgan not pull the rug out on PMs by yesterday or today? Are they shackled now? Is silver going to hit $40 next week? 

I have a very hard time believing that the dollar will implode, that the puppet masters won't pull the rug out from the masses (moving into PMs) soon. Real soon. I hope it doesn't happen that way. Where else is the small-fry citizen to trade or invest when all else is failing? Shorting equities is dangerous with QE2 at full bore. Metals make sense, but strange things happen overnight, or over a weekend. 

In other words, I trust no one. To those of have the gumption to go long silver (rather than sell early as I did), a toast to you. And a merry weekend, also. I caught a bit of a ride on SLV last week, but missed the ride to 34.87 (after hours today). UCO was appealing, but I stayed out and it closed AH at 56.50 today (5.3%). Big cajones means you were still long EXK (+12.2%), which closed AH at 9.36 today. 

EXK 9.36 (+12.2%), UCO 56.50 (+5.3%), NGD 10.79 (+5.2%), SLV 34.93 (+4.5%), NFLX 211.80 (+4.1%), TVIX 42.74 (+4.1%), SLW 45.15 (+3.3%), PAAS 39.70 (+3.2%), CRR 122.90 (+3.2%)

FAS 30.69 (-3.7%), CLNE 13.51 (-2.9%), C 4.55 (-2.8%), VCLK 14.80 (-2.4%), GS 160.80 (-2.2%), EGPT 17.57 (-2.1%), F 14.45 (-2.1%), X 55.70 (-1.9%), GOOG 600.24 (-1.5%), FCX 51.69 (-1.4%), TBT 38.78 (-1.3%)

All (mainly) because of Libya and the contagion of protest across the Middle East. The violence. Quaddafi. But intervention is imminent. Them big ships loaded to the gills with peacemaking weaponry are closing in on Libya sooner or later. Crude will return to 'normalcy.' 

Didn't trade today. I'm starting to realize that even when the direction of the market is fairly clear, the artificial vapors are affecting my judgment. Otherwise I would've jumped in when SLW pulled back roughly 50% on today's gain. I would've trusted what I've seen and bought UCO. I definitely would've opened a UCO position as a hedge if I were long AAPL. Instead, I stayed all cash, as I have since early in the week. 

A coward, yes, but a coward who can relax this weekend and return Monday morning fully locked and loaded. Takes a bit of a twisted mind to attack this particular market. Will work on that this weekend. 

Friday reading
AP: Oil settles at highest level since Sept. 2008 (Mar 4 2011) "Oil prices rose past $104 a barrel to end the week at a 29-month high..."

AP: Burst of hiring could mark turning point for jobs (Mar 4 2011)

The Telegrah: Libyan rebels vow 'victory or death' (Mar 4 2011)

King World News: John Hathaway: $50 to $60 silver, US dollar in danger (Mar 3 2011) "If we have a continuation of QE2 past June 30th, I wouldn't be surprised to see silver in the $50, $60 an ounce territory. PMs and oil top the list in what is becoming, apparently, an every-other-day switcheroo between equities and metals/oils.

The Fly: Yelp is a partner of Open Table, i.e. Asshat of the Week Award to Herb Greenberg/Brad Safalow (Mar 3 2011) "You f**king imbecile, Yelp is a partner of OPEN's. And, to top it off, the only relevent website that could ever threaten OPEN's dominance, Tripadvisor.com, have a partnership as well."

Zero Hedge: Utah pushes to accept gold, silver as alternative currency (Mar 3 2011)

Turd Ferguson: Silver consolidating above 34 (Mar 3 2011)

Carnage

Dow Jones (-2.38%), Nasdaq (-3.25%) and S&P 500 (-2.71%) flailing away in the dark with less than 2 hours left in the session. Worries about consumer confidence and Euro zone issues have taken precedence again. Issues about domestic financial regulation reform haven't helped, either.

Overall, though, it's nothing new. Just no good news, and the market needed capitulation to the down side. A lot of fund managers and traders are off on vacation this week and closing their books for now as Q2 nears a close, just my guess. So the robots take over in their algorithmic, predatory kind of way.

The past few weeks have been about light volume, no conviction and warning signs. Today, we have carnage.

I was up at 8:14 am Hawaii time and found the market in the red, both feet in. AAPL is finally below 260, my price target for a possible re-entry. Shares are at 257.64 (-3.97%). F is back below 10 (9.91 -4.99%). Jobs and housing declines are a bitch. C, which was saved by circuit breakers at 1pm Eastern, lost momentum and is at 3.79 (-5.25%) and GS (134.26 -1.76%) is sinking.

Even IMAX, that piddly, fickle issue, is at 14.65, lowest I've seen in months, despite huge ticket sales for Toy Story 3. BIDU is down 7.31% to 69.00. NFLX, not so bad, down "only" 2.88% to 114.22.

Meanwhile, VXX (30.13 +6.92%) and FAZ (16.62 +9.16%) are shredding the bulls. I'm still out of this madness and watching from the bleachers, but it's unfathomable to be long this market without hedging with some VXX and other assorted life vests. The ice was very, very thin.

FXI (39.49 -3.59%), FCX (61.39 -3.27%) and US Steel (X, 39.60 -4.69%) declining today as the US Dollar is up (UUP 25.05 +0.36%).

Euro is down slightly, but GLD (121.39 +0.25%) remains healthy. 

Frazzled Friday

Dow Jones 10,143.81 -8.99 -0.09%
NASDAQ 2,223.48 +3.07 +0.29%
S&P 500 1,076.76 +3.07 +0.29%

Reform is good, but it is no cure and it clearly isn't the catalyst in itself. Today's session was in the green most of the way, but sold off toward the close and essentially closed flat. Sectors that benefited from today's final financial reform bill work on Capitol Hill were (of course) financials and, you guessed it, Chinese energy.

FINANCIALS
Goldman Sachs gained 4.68% to 139.66, capping a nice move from 133 earlier in the week. The intraday high was 140.90. Citigroup closed at 3.94 (+4.23%) after a spooky descent the past few days.

Big winners were buyers of FAS (22.80 +7.17%).

EURO ZONE
FXE traded up (123.44 +0.47%) while the US Dollar (UUP) lost 0.56% (24.83).

Euro banks benefited from the finreg bill. Banco Santander, like their successful national team, finished up (11.05 +1.66%). IRE (3.70 +1.93%) also rose, though NBG fell (2.25 -1.32%).

CHINA ENERGY
With BP selling off chunks of fine, moneymaking operations, entities like CNOOC (CEO) are swooping in. CEO gained 1.93% to 175.24 while PetroChina (PTR) moved up 0.50% to 115.10.

Chinese solar plays are hot again, probably new festering ground for traders who banked big gains in US natural gas stocks the past few weeks. Trina Solar (TSL) had a big bump of 4.09% to 18.33 after landing a deal with the University of Queensland (Australia).

Yingli Green Energy (YGE) gained 3.89% to 10.68, riding the sector's momentum.

US ENERGY
The rise of crude oil to $78/barrel is helping solar plays back in the US. First Solar (FSLR) picked up 2.04% to 119.26. Solar is still "expensive" in the sense that it can't survive without federal subsidies for the most part. Solar will climb as crude prices rise. As usual.

Nat Gas had its best day in about a week, reviving in a big way. My list of 40 natty gassers gained a cumulative 2.12%. NGS was the biggest gainer (+7.65% to 16.74) and HERO (2.80 +5.66%) was second.

Two of my favorites, WPRT (16.70 +1.83%) and CLNE (15.97 +3.9%) did fine. So did another play I like, HGT (20.59 +3.05%).

The natty gasser with the biggest gain since Obama's speech is PETD (26.99 +29.57%).

As for oil, BP resumed its tumultuous descent, losing 5.98% to 26.92. Again, the sector traded well, having pruned BP from its collective sentiment. US Oil Fund (ETF) gained 3.69% to 35.66.

SAFE PLAYS
GLD gained 1.2% to 122.90 and TLT was slightly up (99.05 +0.41%).

CHINA & HEAVY METAL
FXI gained 1.01% to 41.18. Copper did well; FCX rocketed 4.93% to 66.57. US Steel rose 2.83% to 43.24. Metals have been so productive lately that the relative volatility shouldn't have scared me away.

TECH KINGS
Hibernation time for AAPL longs. Shares sold off again, as expected, losing 0.86% to 266.70. I'm waiting for a chance to snare shares at 260 or maybe 250.

GOOG lost 0.51% to 472.68. Another buying opportunity may be nearing, though I'm not in a rush. Even with AdMob and Android, GOOG is not as appealing to me as AAPL.

BIDU gained 3.12% to 76.10, arguably the best mover in the sector. They have no real competition in China. Big Brother is on its side. Baidu will not be beaten.

All in all, still 100% cash and no plans to change as the weekend begins. Just a few more days before Q2 ends, so window dressing may be in store as fund managers trample over each other to establish positions. Or not. If the market has another crash soon, I'll be ready.

Finreg bear burn

The squeeze is on. Somewhere in the murky language of the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill are a few words that have made banks happy. In other words, the regulation has probably lost a sizable amount of clout. That's bad news for finnie shorts and great news for suffering longs.

FAS is tearing bears up with a 7% gain to 22.79, while FAZ is down 7% to 14.84 after gaining most of this week. GS (139.65 +3.4%) and C (3.93 +4.1%) are enjoying the boost from Capitol Hill.

Banco Santander won't sit still

Yet another reason to like STD. The behemoth Spanish bank is taking a load off Citigroup: $3.2 billion of auto loans.

Turnover Thursday

Dow Jones 10,152.80 -145.64 -1.41%
NASDAQ 2,217.42 -36.81 -1.63%
S&P 500 1,073.69 -18.35 -1.68%

Regulations, schmegulations. There's no doubt that without turmoil from Capitol Hill, the Eurozone, the Gulf and iPhone 4 buyers planetwide, the market would be just fine and dandy. (RIMM is collapsing after hours due to a so-so earnings report.)

The pullback was expected from a technical perspective. Is a further drop coming? With Q2 coming to a lose in less than a week, I'm not so sure fund managers will stay completely out. If they get scared and refuse to dip their toes back into the oil-infested waters, that'll be a surprise to some extent.

I'll still wait for selling pressure in AAPL to wane before I walk into that territory. To the brave who grabbed VXX shares below 25 and 26 recently, bravo. When AAPL draws down, VXX pops 99% of the time.

Overall, though, the market was simply red.

TECH KINGS
AAPL wavered between 269 and 272 on the day of its iPhone 4 release. Shares closed at 269.69, down 0.73%, or 10 bucks less than its all-time high last week. Signal issues with the new phone could sit on AAPL for a few days, which makes it a buying opportunity, maybe. I'd rather just wait.

GOOG petered out and lost 1.44% to 475.10. Entry point is looking better all the time now. I might just wait for the first report of mobile ad sales before I test Google waters.

BIDU lost 3.14% to 73.80 after beating down bears for several days.

FINANCIALS
GS (134.98 -0.07%) and C (3.78 -2.83%) facing issues thanks to legislators. I haven't liked finnies for months precisely because of this kind of uphill battle. Fuck it. Too much work, too much pain involved. Unless GS hits 100 and C swoons to 3.00. Then I won't resist.

EURO ZONE
FXE up 0.14% (122.86), which normally is good for the US market. UUP (US dollar) was flat at 28.35.

Euro banks fell in spectacular fashion. Banco Santander (STD) dropped 3.81% to 10.87, IRE got squashed (3.63 -8.1%) and NBG (2.28 -3.8%) took a blow to the scrotum. I like STD below 9. Could happen. STD was below 9 less than two weeks ago.

SAFE PLAYS
Predictably, GLD (121.30 +0.29%) was up in a down market. So was SLV (18.26 +0.44). TLT, surprisingly, fell 0.59% to 98.65. But TLT had been hot lately, so it's not a shock.

ENERGY
US Oil (USO) gained 0.44% to 34.39 despite BP's plummet. BP gave back 3.14% to a new low of 28.74.

Nat Gas continued to fart incessantly. Only two of the 40 on my list closed positive today, though FTK had a nice 5.26% gain. As crude oil prices gain with greater demand, natural gas needs a definitive catalyst from the White House, something more than oral salutations from President Obama. Otherwise, nat gas is looking dead.

WPRT, once the beacon of the post-Obama clean-energy speech explosion, lost big again. Shares tumbled 3.81% to 16.40, and now WPRT is up only 11.64% since Obama's speech. WPRT had been up more than 30% at one point.

There are arguments to every sector of alternative energy. Wind has opponents because turbines kill thousands of birds. Solar has issues because of cost and the way certain endangered bugs (I'm not kidding) are instinctively attracted to panels and essentially fly until dead. The reasons are innumerable, surely "discovered" by pro-oil interests as well as well-meaning environmentalists.

Come on, people. We've got to do more than bitch and moan. Solutions?

HEDGES
VXX rocketed 6.14% to 28.35 and FAZ leaped 6.11% to 15.97. They're both explosive and both good ways to protect against losses if you're long the market, whether it's AAPL or financials.

Or you could just sit out and watch the circus from the bleachers like I have. Still 100% cash.

What's hot, what's not

A candlestick update from American Bulls.

AAPL (270.97): "Sell Confirmed"
BIDU (76.19): "Buy If"
C (3.89): "Sell Confirmed"
CLNE (16.17): "Wait"
FAZ (15.05): "Hold"
FCX (65.06): "Hold"
FXE (122.69): "Buy If"
FXI (41.26): "Hold"
GLD (120.95): "Hold"
GLDD (6.14): "Wait"
GOOG (482.05): "Hold"
GS (135.07): "Wait"
LVS (27.04): "Hold"
PKX (105.14): "Sell If"
SBUX (27.32): "Buy If"
SCO (15.06): "Hold"
SD (6.25): "Wait"
SLV (18.18): "Buy If"
STD (11.30): "Buy If"
TLT (99.24): "Hold"
UUP (24.97): "Sell If"
VXX (26.71): "Sell If"
WPRT (17.05): "Wait"
X (44.06): "Buy If"

Wax Off Wednesday

Dow Jones 10,298.44 +4.92 +0.05%

NASDAQ 2,254.23 -7.57 -0.33%

S&P 500 1,092.04 -3.27 -0.30%

Nothing like wiping the slate no matter what the baggage or overload may have been. Lessons are much better learned by remembering what was fundamentally wrong, no doubt, but letting go and starting over are mandatory. Every sports fan has a last-to-first story to remember.

With today's drastic statistics in housing data, plus a market that was overbought, a decline is unavoidable in the market. AAPL is not the only barometer, but it's true that when it can't hold gains after a nice run, it's likely to drop and/or consolidate again. We've seen AAPL trade between 231 and 279 in the past month or two, and for a moment or two last week, it appeared AAPL was ready to break out in spectacular fashion. But even the news of 3 million iPads sold couldn't push AAPL higher and shares closed down today at 270. For traders, a ride from 273 down to 267 to 274 was plenty of opportunity today. For investors, a pause to recalibrate and consider new strategy.

I don't know for sure, but if you bought at the two-year bottom and held, it's got to be tough changing the plan after riding AAPL from 78 to 279.

Another puzzler is GLDD, which was poised to build barriers off the shores of Gulf states, only to see the Fed pull the plug on that plan. According to this report, concerns about endangered areas will require sand berms to move further out to sea by two miles. How much this affects GLDD, I don't know. Shares finished up 0.33% to 6.14. Still bears watching, no pun intended.

FINANCIALS
Banco Santander gained a few pesos (0.44%) to 11.30 and continued upward in afterhours trading (11.42). IRE gained 1.8% to 3.95, but most finnies were down. GS was up 0.21% (135.07), but C (3.89 -1.27%) and NBG 2.37 (-1.66%) struggled.

There's a lot to like about STD, but it's been a significant gain since it traded below 9 three weeks ago.

CHINA & HEAVY METAL
FXI gained 0.76% to 41.26, though FCX (65.06 -0.20%) traded lower. US Steel (X) gained 1.08% (44.06) and BIDU finished higher (76.19 +0.67%).

Between rising labor costs and Big Brother's iron fist, this is an amazing spectacle. Workers in the People's Republic are more informed than ever. They understand China's status in the economic universe. They want a piece of the pie and they'll get some of it as wages increase across the Middle Kingdom gradually.

Posco (PKX) of South Korea gained 2.77% to 105.14, following X's lead. Or vice-versa.

EURO
FXE gained a fraction (0.25%) to 122.69. The US dollar (UUP) dropped 0.40% to 24.97.

SAFE PLAYS
GLD lost 0.41% to 120.95 and SLV dropped 1.3% to 18.18. TLT gained 0.68% to 99.24.

ENERGY
SCO (inverse oil ETN) picked up 4.95% to 15.06 as US Oil Fund (USO) gave up 2.17% to 35.24. BP, really, doesn't trade like the rest of the sector anymore. It trades like an outcasted entity drifting in space. Shares dropped just one penny to 29.67 after sitting above 30 earlier in the day.

Only eight of my Nat Gas 40 managed gains today. DPTR, a penny stock, picked up 3.09% to 1.00. KOG rose 2.05% to 3.48. The group as a whole lost 1% and is now up just 4.85% since Obama's clean energy speech nearly three weeks ago.

PETD, which was up today 1.2%, is the overall leader with a 25.2% gain. Former leader WPRT is up just 16.07% following a massive selloff the past few sessions. Westport was up more than 30% at one time.

The initial rally, post-Obama, was tremendous, and his follow-up comments early last week helped, but the sector needed something substantial, something with legs to stand on. That catalyst has not happened and shares have sold off to no surprise. Compounding the risk was Pennsylvania's legislative call to ban natural gas production in wake of some recent disasters.

Still, this could be the beginning of a new opportunity to enter clean energy, but I suspect the market is ready to balance out. I'll wait for WPRT to pull back to 16 before I consider a small position.

ETN SAFETY
VXX dipped below 25 last week, and the candlestick analysis (American Bulls) called for a buy (25.48). Very solid perspective; VXX has been strong after falling to these levels in recent months. Shares closed at 26.71 after an intraday high of 27.74. Shares ran up again in afterhours trading to 26.92, but I'm skeptical of that price holding overnight. Often, VXX readjusts before morning trading and can be bought cheaper.

Nice gainers among ETNs include DTO (75.33 +4.85%), DUG (65.55 +2.01%) and TYP (8.21 +1.23%).

Tepid Tuesday

Dow Jones 10,293.52 -148.89 -1.43%
NASDAQ 2,261.80 -27.29 -1.19%
S&P 500 1,095.31 -17.89 -1.61%

I'll say it again: this is a market that can have traders sprinting on those mouse wheels like a treadmill all morning and afternoon. It can also be an opportunity to shut the computer down, take a ride and enjoy some sunshine and pristine waters at the local beach. In my case, there are many choices. An hour just chilling in the water under a hot Hawaiian sun and some cool trade winds was the perfect tonic for my day.

I missed AAPL's rebound today as the news of 3 million iPads sold carried over. But I didn't miss another early gain and later decline. Volume is so light at this time of year and my time off is so limited, there are simple choices for those of us in the middle of the Pacific during the hours of 2 am to 2 pm.

1. Sleep, hit the beach, relax.
2. Sleep, wake up every few hours, check the market, back to sleep.
3. Watch every tick for 12 hours straight.

I prefer 1 and 2 for the rest of this month. I'll be on the lookout for AAPL shares below 260, maybe 250. The last two lows were 231 and 242. Expecting another low below 250 would be expecting a bit too much, I believe. But AAPL has proven that it will consolidate for months before exploding again, and we're in the midst of that now, possibly.

Fund managers don't want to be out of AAPL as Q2 closes at the end of this month. But they'll be more than happy to shake out weak hands and grab all they can below 260 or 250. So I wait.

TECH KINGS
AAPL gained 1.36% to 273.85. It's a dangerous scenario, potentially. There are traders who want their small gains on a daily basis. There are longs who wisely have held since 78 last year (March 2009). If the global economy tanks, everyone gets washed out to sea without mercy. Caution advised.

GOOG fell just a bit (-0.47%) to 486.96. Is this the opportunity to jump in before the Google train leaves the station? Or is a ledge below the cliff, and there's nowhere to go but down? I don't know. I'm asking you.

CHINA & HEAVY METAL
BIDU couldn't buck the trend for a second day in a row and lost 0.89% to 75.68. The FXI lost 1.56% to 40.95, giving back a small portion of recent gains. FCX lost 4.25% to 65.19 and US Steel (X) dropped 3.07% to 43.59.

It's a short-term trader's paradise.

EURO
The FXE lost just 0.33% (122.38) while the US dollar (UUP) was up 0.16% to 25.07.

FINANCIALS
Stateside, Goldman Sachs lost 2.14% to 134.79 and C dropped 1.99% to 3.94. Abroad, Santander (STD) lost 1.83% to 11.25, IRE got smacked (3.88 -7.18%) and NBG slipped 2.03% to 2.41.

FAZ fed off the selloff and gained 4.92% to 14.92.

ENERGY
If all of this felt vaguely bearish or even bullish in your optimistic view, try this: All 40 of the stocks on my Nat Gas list finished in the red today, a first since Obama's clean energy speech 19 days ago. Red, red, red. There's just sorta exception in VNR, which broke even for the day.

If the Nat Gas sector, which has an edge over most, can't get positive, it might be a setback for the broader market. Sure, Gulf drillers may have gotten a reprieve today, but for how long? Does the State of Louisiana really think it can win against the President? Do we really need for all drillers to go back to work in the Gulf? There has to be a reasonable compromise that can keep workers employed without risking one or two more preposterous catastrophes.

USO (United States Oil Fund ETF) finished down 0.93% even with the Louisiana challenge. Meanwhile, the ultra-short oil ETF, SCO, gained 1.7% to 14.35, oddly enough.

SAFETY
VXX gained again, this time 1.01% to 26.49 and making those who entered below 25 geniuses.

FAZ was far from the only inverse ETN to gain nicely today. DRV (Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3x) gained 9.74% to 6.87.

TZA (Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3x) ran up 6.29% to 6.97.

GLD reversed recent downward momentum and gained 0.88% to close at 121.45. TLT gained 1.19% to 98.57.

All in all, some interesting viewing from the bleachers. It might not be the worst time to pair AAPL and VXX, since there's no guarantee whatsoever of direction for either. But I'm not interested in that kind of excitement for now.

Manic Monday

Dow Jones 10,442.41 -8.23 -0.08% chart
NASDAQ 2,289.09 -20.71 -0.90% chart
S&P 500 1,113.20 -4.31 -0.39% chart

Another good night's sleep. Away from the home office, just enjoying family time over the weekend and through the early part of this week. Seems that the market had quite the day, rolling higher on China/yuan news, then completely selling the bulls out. As David Byrne once bellowed, "This is not my beautiful house! This is not my beautiful wife!"

Whether the Chinese are being facetious or factual is beside the point. The market was quite overbought and all the ripe fruit had to be plucked at some point. I slept right through most of it and slept well. Seeing CNBC (on mute) post charts at about 6 am Hawaii time showing the market 's steep decline from the early gains was no surprise. I went right back to sleep in a quiet neighborhood (not mine, which is noisy most of the day and night) and relished the trade winds coming down the slope.

There are just too many uncertainties and too many certain negatives around the globe for me to trust any whiff of irrational exuberance. That's right, in the right circumstance, I'd go long a frothy, bullish and silly trend. But this ain't it.

I'd rather be picky and catch a chunk of the up side (or down side) than try and guess a bottom or top. There's no reason to allow the market to have an edge on me. It gives us a direction, then maybe I re-enter. Aside from that, there's a lot of fun under the sun to be had. Summer is here.

TECH KINGS
Did AAPL just hit the wall? Shares were up nicely in premarket, hitting 278-plus, and later hit 279.01 before traders banked their nice profits. AAPL was at 242 less than two weeks ago. Closed today at 270.17, not too bad considering it fell to an intraday low of 268.73.

There's still more than a week left before Q2 ends, so more selling by fund managers will allow for another cheap entry at some point. I missed this run, but I didn't really "miss" it. I'm not feeling hurt. I'll just wait.

GOOG lost 2.29% and closed at 488.56. I like sub-490 as a possible entry point. I still like what they have in growth with Android and AdMob. You and I may not like Google as much as Apple, but they still draw billions of eyeballs and are about to corner the burgeoning mobile ad industry. With Apple, of course.

BIDU lost some gains, but still finished up 3.06% to 76.83 on the bullish China news. I've always believed that Baidu is simply Big Brother's baby. Even Mao would be cheering for these home boys to win — extreme filters provided, naturally.

CHINA & HEAVY METAL
It's time for a new band called China to invigorate the stagnant music industry. They could name all their songs after metals and chirp about the beauty of destroying perfectly fine agricultural regions by building dams.

FXI up 2.31% to 41.60. This ETF has held up well despite global poo-poo and will probably find its way to 50 before summer's done. The Chinese hold all the cards and they know it. The real estate bubble is a serious thorn in China's side, but they're managing it better, it seems, than the US handled its subprime mortgage issue.

FCX gained 3.31% to 68.08 as copper regained momentum on China's news. US Steel (X), which had floundered mightily lately, picked up 3.59% to 44.97.

South Korean steel manufacturer Posco (PKX) was a huge gainer, running up 6.69% to 103.76.

FINANCIALS & EURO
GS was flat (-0.32%) at 137.74 after losing early gains. C flat, too, gaining 0.25% to 4.02.

FXE (Euro) dropped a bit (-0.47%) to 122.78 while the US dollar (UUP) gained 0.36% to 25.03. Euro banks closed weakly: STD (11.46 -0.61%), IRE (4.18 -2.79%), through NBG gained 2.07% to 2.46 after a huge gap up.

Not touching these finnies for a long, long time.

ENTERTAINMENT
IMAX gained 1.94% to 16.46 after a huge opening weekend for Toy Story 3. Shares were up to 16.79 before losing ground.
CSTR plummeted 3.25% to 47.36.

ENERGY
BP sold off 4.5% to 30.33 as CEO Hayward did his jolly best to fuck his company again. It's not just that millionaires and billionaires should step away from the spotlight after causing an environmental disaster. It's just that they might think about heeding PR's advice about not cavorting around on a yacht. That fact that he didn't give a fucking damn about his own company's advice, plus the fact that it seems he doesn't care about the oil 'volcano', tells us that maybe there really is nothing BP can do to halt this catastrophe in the Gulf ... what else are shareholders supposed to think? Of course, they're going to bail and bail and bail.

Despite Hayward's idiocy, USO lost only 0.23% today. Inverse oil ETN SCO gained just 0.50%. Oil prices keep going up, which is good news for the industry and even BP.

Meanwhile, only six of the 40 on my Nat Gas list were positive today, and most of the positives were up fractionally. Only BRNC had a substantial gain (+2.36% to 4.34), resuming its hot run. As a group, my Nat Gas 40 lost 1.36% today, but is still up 10.66% since Obama's clean energy speech 2 1/2 weeks ago.

Top gainers on the list:
1. PQ 8.34 (+34.08%)
2. PETD 26.77 (+28.52%)
3. BRNC 4.34 (+24.71%)
4. WPRT 18.22 (+24.03%)
5. MMR 65.29 (+22.35%)

Conspiracy or not, as long as oil goes up, the need for alternatives rides along with that. The clamor for nat gas (subsidy bill pending) and solar will climb. Maybe owning nat gas and/or solar and/or USO are simply ways to hedge against your growing gasoline bill.

I just like WPRT for its great balance sheet and unique position in the industry.

SAFE PLAYS
GLD lost 1.99% to 120.39 today and SLV dropped 2.24% to 18.32. TLT was flat (97.41 -0.29%).

PROTECTION
And, finally, FAZ was up a bit (14.22 +0.57) while VXX soared (25.48 +1.64%). VXX was low as 24.03. The last time it was this low, it made a run to the mid-30s. Is the world a calmer place now than it was last month or six months ago? Again, I won't touch the VXXen unless I'm using it to hedge a long position. The times I've attempted to trade VXX as a stand-alone, she was way too smart and whirling dervish for me. I admit that.

World Cup Wednesday

Dow Jones 10,434.17 +24.71 +0.24%
NASDAQ 2,307.16 +1.23 +0.05%
S&P 500 1,116.04 +1.43 +0.13%

Anyone like soccer? I have no idea who's going to win the World Cup. It's entertaining to a point, but like those weird kazoo noisemakers that are so popular in South Africa, it will soon pass.

The market was relatively narrow today for the most part. I slept halfway through, strangely not disappointed to see AAPL continue its climb while I watch from the bleachers. Though Apple continues to amaze and I have my doubts about this propped-up market, there are some interesting twists and turns coming as a result of BP's doomsday disaster.

CNOOC (CEO) is a Chinese energy play that I enjoyed watching two, three years ago, but never traded. It remains in a role of little brother to Goliath PetroChina (PTR) in that part of the world known as the Middle Kingdom.

What's interesting about CNOOC now is that it could be in acquisitive mode now that BP is in deep-shit territory. If BP is forced to unload property to raise cash, CNOOC will be ready and willing, according to this story. This is far from breaking news; CEO was at a low of 152 nine days ago and closed today at 173.

Yup, I hear ya. Holy crap.

It's BP's other wells that CNOOC is interested in. It's like breaking up the Yankees, basically. Most major-league teams would be happy to snag A-Rod or Mariano Rivera or Derek Jeter or ... especially at a discount. That makes CEO an interesting watch. I'm not entertaining any notions of buying it here at 173 — already at a 14% gain since June 8. But I'm keeping an eye on it. CEO was listed as a "Buy If" by American Bulls on the candlestick chart reading coming into today's session. With a fractional drop today, CEO is probably still in a near-breakout level.

The market rallied into the close on low volume again, though AAPL had plenty of trading and closed at 271.91 (+1.74%). Shares hit a high of 272.90 early, but dipped below 270 by the end of the first hour of trading. After a rally back near 272, shares fell to 270 before rallying in the final half hour. That kept VXX below 26.00 for the day; it broke above that level briefly before AAPL mounted that late comeback.

US FINANCIALS
Flat, flat, flat. GS up 0.19% to 137.32. C down 0.75% to 3.96. FAZ, the inverse ultra-short ETF, gained just 0.42%.

EURO
STD, which fell flat on its face yesterday, gained 2.45% to 11.27 today. Such a nice move lately after dipping below 10 in recent weeks. There's a lot of confidence in Santander despite mediocre jobs numbers in Espanol. Other Euro banks did not so well. IRE fell 0.96% to 4.14 and NBG dropped 0.81% to 2.45.

The euro (FXE) rose 0.71% to 123.49 while the dollar (UUP) slipped 0.60% to 24.95.

SAFE PLAYS
GLD gained 1.3% to 121.90 and TLT (20-year Treasurys ETF) picked up 0.81% to 97.85.

TECH/INTERNET KINGS
AAPL finished up 1.71% to 271.82 and GOOG was flat (500.08 -0.24%). BIDU lost 3.13% to 72.47

RETAIL/ENTERTAINMENT
NFLX gained 0.91% to 125.80 while CSTR fell 2.32% to 51.29. The momo is gone for CSTR, which rose yesterday on news of a deal with Paramount for early releases of DVDs. CSTR lost almost all its gain intraday yesterday and continues to sell. Below 50 might warrant a closer look.

ENERGY
While BP lost just 0.44% to 31.71, USO (oil ETF) dropped nearly 1% to 35.14, halting a significant run lately.

The Nat Gas sector got hammered for a second day in a row, but gains since Obama's clean energy speech remain massive. UNG bucked the trend and closed at 8.74, a gain of 2.83%. WPRT (18.98 -1.15%) and CLNE (17.28 -1.43%) declined, as did 32 of the 40 on my Natty Gassers list.

WPRT paces that list with a gain of 29.3% in the past two weeks. PQ is up 28.8% and PETD is up 25.1%.

HEAVY METAL
FCX lost 1.82% and FXI dropped 1.17% as copper took a hit. US Steel (X) remained turbulent, losing 2.67% to 44.10. SLV gained nicely (1.38%) to 18.33.

Chicken or the egg?

Doesn't matter which came first to the bulls. They're doing the funky chicken dance this morning with the Dow up 212 points (+2.2%, down from its highs, but still...), NAS +40 (+1.9%) and S&P +21 (2.1%).

Futures were juicy going into the opening bell thanks to good news from Spain and China. Lack of bad news in a market that was still oversold after that bear trap/head fake into yesterday's close, and woila: instant hammering of bears and waffling traders. (I'd classify myself as the latter.)

Some of the leaders from yesterday are kicking tail today. FCX (+4.4%, 63.39), X (+3.9%, 42.96), FXI (+2.3%, 40.00). If copper is leading this leg of the rally and China is devouring this orangey metal, along with its positive news this morning, this truly might be the bounce back to bull territory. Even SLV is up slightly.

Financials are doing solid, too, with C (+0.78%, 3.90), IRE (+6.1%, 3.83), STD (+8.3%, 9.74). FAS is up 4.9%. Ka-Powww!

Money has clearly shifted out of safe havens like GLD (-1.1%), TLT (-0.8%), UUP (-0.97%). Tech giants AAPL (+1.5%, 246.96) and (GOOG +2.1%, 483.75) are keeping pace somewhat with the market. BIDU (+3.7%, 69.90) and NFLX (+1.93%, 117.66) are doing nicely, too, but most of the top gainers on my list are two- and three-letter issues — non-NASDAQ plays.

The leader, of course, is BP, now up 12.2% to 32.74 following yesterday's 15% plunge. I don't plan on trading BP ever, but it finally hit rock bottom, no pun intended, and was due for a major bounce.

Getting toppy already?

Another awesome night of rest. 6:58 am Hawaii time and the markets are flush with green gold. DJ up 93, Nas +27 and S&P +11 with 3 hours left in today's session. Nas is up 1.26% after lagging yesterday. Yesterday's strong finish was a tell for Nas, but I didn't really care. I slept nice, still 100% cash.

The Nat Gas sector is on fire. My list of 39 has 38 issues in the green. That's quite positive for the time being. BEXP (+6.80%), PQ (+6.62%), KOG (+6.56%) and MMR (+6.19) lead after a couple of down days for the sector. Natural profit-taking before another run, probably.

UNG is the lone red bleeder (-1.59%) at 8.05. It's reverted back to its form in pre-Obama Clean Energy speech times. Huge selling today.

Nat gas is up, but so is oil. USO is up 3.04% despite BP dropping a whopping 8.87%. Much of that, as well as the market's surge up, came on Bernanke's bullish speech. BP trading at 31.75 now.

US Steel rallying again, up 3.5% to 42.79. FCX up 2.05%, though its off its highs. FXI up 1.83% (39.52).

Positive on those fronts, plus financials are up. C (+3.43% to 3.87), GS up fractionally to 138.19 (a steal?) and Spanish conquistador STD is up 2.79% to 9.20. C has been a smart buy below 3.60 for the past year. STD dipped momentarily below 9 today. Both tempt me.

Dollar down (UUP -0.65%, 34.16) and Euro up (FXE +0.65%, 119.91). We may be topping a bit here if the tiny caps are any indication. BBI is up 2.27% to 0.29 and HAUP is +3.30% to 2.19. BBI (Blockbuster Video) is likely going to file for bankruptcy and trades primarily as a lottery ticket. How quickly the market turns stupid again.

Photo: Denise Milani (no website)

Tubby Tuesday

Dow Jones 9.939.98 +123.49 +1.26%
NASDAQ 2,170.57 -3.33 -0.15%
S&P 500 1,062.04 +11.57 +1.10%

Maybe this is bullish, Freeport-McMoran Copper (FCX) up 4.81% to 61.48 today on decent volume (22.4M). Copper? If copper starts moving, that's very interesting. FXI up 2.18% (38.83), clearly one of the indicators, proxies, whatever you want to call it. FXI started rebounding long before the rest of the market was done puking its guts out. If China is bouncing a bit, the risk of missing a move in something like FCX versus averting away from risk completely is a crazy decision for fund managers and traders.

US Steel (X) also up (+2.51%, 41.31) on decent volume (18.0M). A weaker dollar (UUP -0.35%, 25.74) and better Euro (FXE 119.11, -0.26%) helped the S&P and Dow.

Money moved out of GLD (-0.39%) and SLV lost most of its gain to finish at 17.88 (+0.39%). TLT also down (-0.49%) to 98.05.

Nasdaq was down as much as 1% or so before rallying into the close. AAPL fell to 246 before closing at 249.36 (-0.63%). It looked spooky for Apple bulls before huge buying bounced shares off a low of 246.39. Shares later dove lower to 245.65 before more bulls entered.

Overall, this is a market that's turning slightly more positive despite all the outflows of the past month. BP plunged 5.66% to 34.70, but the market has decided to move ahead. BP is on the curb, deserted even by other oil entities. Inverse oil ETNs like SCO (16.06, -3.25%) couldn't stop the sector from rallying again.

Financials also boosted the market. FAS rose to 21.10 (+4.71%) even though GS declined (137.78, -0.65%). C had a nice move up from yesterday's decline and closed at 3.73 (+2.61%).

All this was bad for FAZ (16.55, -4.72%) and VXX (31.13, -3.53%), though VXX had many nice intraday moves for nimble traders.

Today was likely about oversold levels and a lack of bad news. Tomorrow might bring opportunity for techs, which struggled today.

Mundane Monday

Dow Jones 9,816.49 -115.48 -1.16%
NASDAQ 2,173.90 -45.27 -2.04%
S&P 500 1,050.47 -14.41 -1.35%

Market kept hopping the fence between positive and negative for a long stretch today before bears took control. AAPL held up the bulls as long as it could before selling off after Steve Jobs' presentation of the iPhone G4. After hitting an early high of 259.15, AAPL closed at 250.94. It was probably sell-on-the-news movement, but there really is no catalyst in sight to aid the bulls, and the S&P closing below 1,060 is going to make technicians tremble if they're still long this market.

Nine of the 39 nat gas plays I follow finished positive, somewhat disappointing after a large majority of them were up most of the day. UNG finished with the biggest gain at 2.69% (32.27) and is trading at 32.50 after hours. GDP, REXX, ROSE, SWN, KWK, NFX and STR finished green.

Since Obama's clean energy speech on Thursday, 25 of the 39 natty gassers on my list are up. Most have gained 3 to 13%. Even WPRT, which was down 5.4% today, is still up 10.96% since Obama's speech.

FAZ was a winner today with a gain of 5.08% despite opening to the downside. VXX closed up 3.13% to 32.27.

GLD closed up 1.93% to 121.49 and SLV finished strong, up 4.46% to 17.81. It was mostly the inverse ETNs that had strong moves today. TZA finished up 7.82% to 8.13 on huge volume (59.3 million shares).

TLT held up fairly well at +0.77%.

DNDN took a big hit of -10.14% and closed at 36.70. A lot of traders had big profits and closed out their trades, not too different from traders and funds selling AAPL off to cover losing trades and/or margin calls. (Margin is evil, but that's just my point of view.)

GS down 2.51% to 138.68 on more Fed investigation news. C down 3.96% to 3.64 and NBG -5.6% to 2.19. IRE held on to its gain (+2.91%), but was a far cry from its intraday high when it was up more than 10%.

BP closed near its low at 36.76 (-2.44%) despite reports that it's capturing more of the leaking oil in the Gulf. SCO (+0.42%) and DTO (+0.43%) didn't move big despite BP's drop because other oil plays like Haliburton scored pretty nice today.

IMAX lost its early gains and finished down 1.3% (15.91). Just about every high-flying stock of a few months ago got knocked down for a second day in a row. BIDU lost 4.63% to 69.81. NFLX not too bad a loss, just 0.56% to 109.16. 


FXE down fractionally and UUP up a bit. Stronger dollar each day. Weaker Euro each day. It's probably by design on the part of the EU, which is crappy for the US market. In turn, more people go long the dollar. 

If the market does, indeed, fall through thin ice, there's so little support in terms of willing buyers. The outflows have been significant, and the psyche of traders and investors who left in May will take a long time to heal. Nothing's really changed in the past few weeks. Europe is still in the midst of financial rehab. US banks are going to take a hit because of their relationships with French and German banks, who in turn are going to eat some of the debts of EU laggards like Greece. 

As summer beckons, there are going to be more and more traders who drop everything and escape to their long-awaited vacations, possibly earlier than planned. It would make plenty of sense to get away from this market and its wretched addiction to debt and subsequent withdrawl symptoms. 

I entered small positions in UNG and VXX before the close. I'll probably exit within the next hour. Currently 75% cash. 

Fun fins

IRE is up 11.55% to 4.13 this morning. STD is up 1.78% to 9.07. I remember when STD was holding up fairly well through its crisis a couple of weeks ago and was in the 10-11 range.

Cheap at 9? Hmmm...

GS is even and C is down 0.79%. Not too bad coming off Friday's bear stampede. Dow Jones was up 28 points, NAS +6.6, S&P +3.35.

Financials ... still don't trust them. Wouldn't try a position without hedging with FAZ or VXX.

Hump Day Candles

[Note, 10:16 pm Hawaii time: Adds candlestick analysis by American Bulls on daily (black) charts.]

2-day charts (5-minute bars)

Apple (AAPL 263.95 +3.12 +1.20%)

Bear trap to close Tuesday ... bull trap to close Wednesday?

FAS (24.42 +1.82 +8.06%)

I don't trust the financials, but watch closely. US fins still coupled with Euro banks.

FAZ (14.60 -1.32 -8.29%)

SCO (15.56 -1.84 -3.77%)

Inverse oil ETN leveling out as BP finds its footing

Daily charts from AAPL to VXX

American Bulls: AAPL was a buy at 259 on Tuesday; currently a "hold"

American Bulls: BIDU is a "buy-if"

American Bulls: BP is a "wait"

American Bulls: C was a buy on May 21 (3.63) and remains a "hold"

American Bulls: DNDN remains a "wait"

American Bulls: FAS remains a "wait"

American Bulls: FAZ was a buy on June 1 (15.43) and remains a "hold"

American Bulls: FXE is a "wait"

American Bulls: GLD was a buy on May 25 (117.16) and is now a "sell-if"

American Bulls: GOOG was a buy on May 27 (484.86) and remains a "hold"

American Bulls: GS remains a "wait"

American Bulls: IMAX remains a "wait"

American Bulls: IRE was a "buy confirmed" today at 4.92

American Bulls: JMBA is a "buy-if"

American Bulls: NBG remains a "wait"

American Bulls: NFLX was a buy on May 25 (101.62) and remains a "wait"

American Bulls: QQQQ remains a "wait"

American Bulls: SLV remains a wait

American Bulls: SPY is a "buy-if"

American Bulls: STD was a "buy confirmed" today at 9.84

American Bulls: TLT was a buy on May 19 (95.98) and remains a hold

American Bulls: TYH is a "buy-if"

American Bulls: USO remains a "wait"

American Bulls: UUP remains a "wait"

American Bulls: VXX was a buy on May 6 (24.01) and is now a "sell-if"

American Bulls: X is a "buy-if"