On deck: Solars

OK, natty gassers got knocked in the head and fell out of the ring recently despite Obama's pronouncement that the sector is a key part of the clean energy campaign.

Now he's proclaiming solars to be sunny-side up. We'll see how long that lasts. Doesn't hurt that his words are backed by action: Fed loans to a couple of small solar companies. I'm not dabbling in pennies, but it might be the start of a short-term run for solar plays.

Big brother + clean energy

Chiseling my way in to a position on STP. Waited and got a few shares at 12.70, saw it drop instantly to 12.55, and now it's at 12.82.

Guess I should've chiseled for a few more at 12.55. Egad. As always, it's tough to bet against Big Brother, i.e. China's new plan to develop clean energy.

HOKU revisited

All doubters and believers are saying and thinking whatever they want, but until that plant is done in Pocatello, Idaho, nobody's right.


You're either a believer or not. In or out. There's no gray area unless you're playing options, straddling, whatever.

#4 First Solar

The King of Solar.


The gold rush doesn't really compare, does it?

#24 Suntech Power

I've always believed that Suntech Power would ride a wave of alternative energy solutions in power-hungry China. So far, however, STP has proven to be nothing more than a short-term trading vehicle.


What will it take for China to put two feet in and commit fully to alt energy? Hard to say. It's not like there's going to be a public outcry in the Middle Kingdom for wise energy policy, not even with rampant air pollution. China seems more concerned, and rightfully so, with human rights issues.

It's all too choppy for me. But I keep watching STP.

Hoku gets more time

Extensions, extensions. I wonder if Hoku Scientific will get full financing for the Pocatello (Idaho) polysilicon plant. Nobody really knows. But getting an extension on the deadline with Solar-Fabrik AG is huge. Still long HOKU.

Hoku secures more financing

Hoku Scientific took another step toward completing the polysilicon plant in Idaho by raising $25 million. That explains today's jump (more than 10%), but issuing stock isn't always good for shareholders in the short term. HOKU, though, is not the normal stock and this is not an old company diluting its share price.

It's a good move, and the string of positive action by management is promising for longs. I picked up some shares near the close (10.20). Not cheap. It was below 9 last week. But today's volume was quite large and the stock, still below its 50-day SMA, is compelling long term.

HOKU, YGE have happy feet

If this truly is the year of solar, today may have been the last chance to get Hoku Scientific below 10 and Yingli Green Energy below 19. Credit disaster or not, oil is still going through the roof via demand, political maneuvering or something else. Gasoline is something that the big fish will always use to swallow us little fish. Not that I'm long, as I probably should have been, CNOOC or PetroChina or even Flowserve to begin with.

Solar won't be The Answer. But it will be a key slice of the pie. Hoku leaped over 10 again today and is pushing to its intra-day high at 10.20 right now. I saw it drift below 9 last week and waited for a chance to get shares at 8.50 or even 8 flat. Now that it's up more than 10% for the day, I can only wait.

Waiting is something I've done on YGE, which dropped like a dead carcass to the bottom of the ocean after I bought shares above 24. YGE is up from its recent low near 18 and is holding at 19.38 right now. I don't trust this market at all and there's no point in assuming anything. But the solar sector is mixed today, and it seems short-term traders are betting on small caps like Hoku and Yingli.

STP has solar longs on edge

Yingli took the plunge with a sub-par earnings report on Friday. On Wednesday morning, Suntech Power reports. Depending on who you believe, STP will disappoint in the near-term and bring the solar sector down. That would be good news for folks who want to go long FSLR at a cheaper price. But that would also be bad news for those of us still holding YGE.

Pupule's week in review: Oww!

Sold Yahoo and Disney for decent profits of 5.3% and 4.6%. A decent start, even if it required holding through almost two weeks of soap-opera wackiness on Yahoo's part.

Closed the week on a bummer, though, after mistiming Yingli. Down 12.7% in just 24 hours. Even though my flaky theories about the end of the week have some credence, I went against them. My theories?

1. Earnings reports released late in the week (Thursday or Friday) are usually bearish and negative and plainly suck. (And earnings early in the week are usually bullish, i.e. FSLR.)

2. A buy on Thursday is no good most times, and a buy on Friday morning is horrible.

3. The best time to buy is often at the closing bell on Friday.

All these have been fairly true, I've found. But I still bought Yingli Green Energy on Thursday at 24.80. Near its recent high (25.50). It sank the rest of the day, but finished at 24.88. Earnings report before the opening bell today was good, but didn't beat expectations. The run was done (18 to 25 in one week) and sellers stormed the castle. By the end of the day, YGE was below 22 and I wondered ... why am I still trading on a whim? I put my homework and caution into DIS and YHOO. With YGE, I did not respect the recent movement in the stock. I assumed. And you know what happens to people who assume. Yep, they are ASSes. I'm an ass.

So, I'm holding the bag on YGE, promising myself (again) to never buy a stock going into earnings. It's almost like former UH football coach Dick Tomey's philosophy about passing. He often said that three things happen when you throw, and two are bad: 1. completion, 2. incompletion, 3. interception.

Earnings? 1. The Co beats estimates and raises guidance, 2. beats estimates, neutral guidance, 3. meets estimates, but doesn't surpass. The latter two mean the stock plummets in this bearish market. That's what happened to YGE. And if I had waited until the close, I could've gotten shares at 21.65, if I wanted.

Some YGE enthusiasts would probably average down here, but I'm against that method. There's too much momentum, too many bears in the stock. It takes so little to beat YGE down and takes a lot to bring it back up. If the market retests recent lows, YGE will sink, perhaps all the way to 18 as it did last month.

Volume today was monstrous, the most ever in YGE. Gap down, 11 million shares traded... completely bearish. I would've been better off sleeping through the market yesterday and today.

Yingli slides with sector, but guidance strong

Yingli Green Energy beaten down with many sticks this morning. Understandable after running from 18 last week to 25-plus yesterday. Now trading just below 23, but the rest of the solar sector is in the red. Options expiry could peg shares of YGE to 22.50, but the stock may not stay there for long.

The conference call, loaded with large numbers to the upside, revealed that 70% of polysilicon needs are secure, gross margin (Q4) increased 24%, and '08 gross margins will be close to '07 gross margins. Plus, polysilicon costs continue to be lowest in the industry, and taxes will decline in '08, as well.

Guidance is bullish, which means YGE will rally when the market reverses. Or will the market retest recent lows first? Still holding my YGE shares here.

Banking on solar: YGE

This is my second go-round with Yingli Green Energy. It's not a best-of-breed like First Solar, but YGE's earnings are out tomorrow and for some very simple(ton) reasons, I think it will be spectacular.

Bot YGE @ 24.80

I got shares on what I thought would be a minor pullback in the solar sector. But it dived with the sector and I should've had stops in. When I fell asleep (at about 5:30 a.m. Hawaii time), YGE hit its low for the day at 23.11. By the close, it was back up to 24.88. A lot of optimists on this stock, unlike FSLR, which sold off the day before its earnings report.

Suntech Power reports on Wednesday. Watching for a great entry point on STP, which closed at 50.49 (-2.30, 4.3%) today. STP is 44% off its high of 90 in just six weeks. HOKU was tempting, too, but I still have 9 as my desired entry point. HOKU fell more than 2% to 9.95. I'll wait and watch. I think 9 is the new support since Sanyo extended its contract from seven to 10 years. Instead of trading between 6 and 14, the new range may be 9 and ... who knows?

Top 25: #8 First Solar

Big volume yesterday's big gap up and 9.5% gain. Too late to jump into FSLR? Probably. It's above the 100-day SMA. Long-term, I can see getting in here. I just want short term, though.

Top 25: #9 Suntech Power

Big day for energy yesterday. Volume in Suntech Power was not promising, however. I'd wait as STP hovers at its 200-day SMA.

Longshots: Hoku Scientific

My favorite of the 3 Longshots is Hoku Scientific. How can anyone shun the $10 billion in contracts? Or the recent extension to the Sanyo deal? Conversely, it's impossible to wonder if the Idaho plant will be ready on time. My gut says HOKU will come through, but experience tells me wait for a great price. Today's run to 10.11 puts the stock near its 50-day SMA. There's still quite a bit of time before the plant deadline is here, and I expect HOKU to fluctuate up and down. If it can drop back to its 200-day SMA (8.85), I'm in.

Hoku rising high again

Woohoo, the Hoku Scientific bulls are on a rampage. HOKU up $1.71 on nice volume. Why?

> > > Honolulu Star-Bulletin: Hoku adjusts solar contract

The Kapolei-based alternative-energy technology developer is exercising the option under its contract with Solar-Fabrik AG after the German company did not meet a September deadline to provide additional financing for Hoku's planned polysilicon plant in Pocatello, Idaho.

Hoku also said yesterday it has received a six-week extension from Japan-based Sanyo Electric Co. Ltd. to complete financing for the plant. Under the contract amendment, either company may end the supply agreement if Hoku has not secured financing by Feb. 15.

Now, frankly, as someone who has no shares of HOKU, this news is a bit frightening. What if Solar-Fabrik AG doesn't come through? What if the financing for the plant isn't on time? Does $1.5 billion in contracts go poof? Always a lot of ifs with a promising power hitter like Hoku. For traders, HOKU has been a dream come true. I still like the stock as a speculative play, but only when it pulls back and gets cheap. As 2009 gets closer, this will continue to ride a wild roller coaster. The 50-day SMA is 9.40, and at 14.19, HOKU is back near all-time highs. Sustainable?

I'm still a big fan. Just not invested right now. HOKU is a completely news-driven stock, and when there's no news, it sells off and goes ker-plunk. I think this Co wins in the long run, which is why I will add a few shares when it gets cheap only. No news and lots of near-term uncertainty is what bargain hunters want.

Sucker punched

Yep, the market is tanking big time, no thanks to the ever consistent Big Ben. I got out of Yingli at 34.41. Sold at a loss of $0.78/share. The market is very ugly right now; NAS is down 78 points (2.9%). Even Apple is down big, and Baidu has cratered to 360. After I sold, YGE recovered a bit to 34.60. However, I refuse to take a bigger loss.

Three times this week, including this morning, YGE went from 35 to 37. I would've made a nice 2 points each time had I sold at 37. Lesson learned. See a pattern, trade the pattern. Would've made me a nice profit had I acted on the pattern and sold the second and third times. I had my chances. YGE just sat there above 37 without moving despite a robust earnings report this morning. I should've taken the profit.

The only stocks in the green today are the solars. First Solar to the moon, was up $60 at one time to 230, and is now holding very strong at 215.

Dozing through profit opportunities

Baidu, Baidu, Baidu. I have confidence that BIDU will return to 427. Maybe not tomorrow or this week, but I'll hold for now. Goes to show that technicals are still important even with a momo stock. BIDU had been up seven days in a row when I bought a little more this morning. The stock closed after-hours trading at 405. Boo. Bad trading.

Yingli wasn't so bad. In fact, YGE was up more than $2 to 37+ and I could've sold for a little profit if it hadn't been 6 a.m. and if I hadn't been flat-out asleep. Yingi pulled back to 35+ by the close. No complaints here. But looking over at Suntech Power (STP) and its 12% move today, I wonder why I like Yingli so much instead of the Chinese solar leader.

Apple closed strong today, up more than 3% to 192. Very nice. One of the faux portfolios I keep is nothing but Apple based on monthly buys regardless of price. It's amazing sight to behold, so much green lighting up the screen. The pruning I did yesterday has me thinking more and more about sticking with a handful of stocks, maybe even just three or so. Three great companies.

Those wouldn't be YGE or STP though. Not yet. Formative years, strictly trade material. I need to stock up on Monster energy drinks. Maybe then I'll see the light. Get it? Solar stocks. Light. Boo...

Like the Chinese solar play

Got a sizeable position in Yingli Green Energy (YGE) before the bell at 35.19. Wanted shares of PTR, but my broker kept telling me that the market was closed ... five minutes before the market actually closed. Unless CNBC is airing on a 5-minute delay, I'm not sure what that was about.

CEO and PTR were more favorable as far as moving averages go, but YGE is a stock I am positive on in several ways. In addition, Yingli got a boost today from a "Buy" rating by a boutique investment house. The first of many to come.

China + Solar = Profits

Chasing is rarely wise, but Friday buys have been good to me. I sold my small Garmin position at $117.20 and came out with a profit of $9.30/share. Not a big profit of course but there are 2 main reasons for the sell.

1. raise some buying power to get YGE, which I bought at $34.57 before after-hours trading closed.
2. too many questions about Garmin's relationship with Navteq. Earnings report is Wed., and if GRMN does not have a long-term solution for a mapmaker, we could see a selloff. I'll wait until they have a solution. Otherwise, they're still a good company and I'm probably going to get more shares after the dust has settled.

Solar + China is a solid combination, particularly with crude oil above $91 now and unrest in Iraq (Turkey). I keep writing about how much I like the energy sector, but now I'm finally acting on it. Yingli closed at an all-high today on heavy volume. The volume wasn't humongous, so I hesitate to label this a breakout, but market in crude oil and the politics in Iraq/Turkey are strong enough for me to move on YGE.