Thursday cinema & library

We're on the verge of some potentially titanic movements in the next few days. Sit tight and avoid the turbulence, or at least take a barf bag with you. Better yet, get on your bike and enjoy a fine summer evening.

Tyler Durden: Positioning for weekend: BofA's risk cheat sheet (June 15)
TraderFlorida (video): Thursday wrap (June 14)
streetmoney21 (video): Currency markets prepare for total chaos on Monday (June 14)
Le Fly: Come get it (June 14)

Charles Biderman: How to benefit from global financial mess (June 14)

Street Insider: Unusual mid-day movers (NBG) (June 14)
Barron's: Apple potential 'game changer' in mobile payments (June 13)
Reggie Middleton: As predicted last year, French and Greeks in race (June 13)

Titanic or Titillating Thursday

2:24 am (Hawaii) The Spanish 10-year is at 7%. How fricken outlandish is that? No nation can survive long with something like that. It's just ... implausible. No country was built to survive something like that. Yet there it is. Infuckingcredible.

But the world is not coming to an end. If there's one good thing about the internet, it's this: the masses share everything, good and bad ideas, at warp speed. So long as there is power, ideas and solutions spread at a rate we as a species have never seen before. So it's impossible to measure that component and believe with all certainty that we're up shit creek for good.

It just feels like it sometimes.

Here's what amuses and/or infotains this morning.

Business Insider: Initial unemployment claims MISS BIG (June 14)
Joe Weisenthal: I just got a ride to my hotel in Athens and BOY was it depressing (June 14)
Business Insider: Holy Crap: Spanish 10-year yield hit 7.0% (June 14)

Late night munchies (updated)

9:47 pm (Hawaii) Had another couple of very small losses today despite being up in one at an early point, and the fact that FAZ finished the day up off its lows didn't bring me any consolation. It finally fricking dawned on me: I've been trying to time breakouts (as was the case successfully last week) instead of simply, simply trading the ranges.

Yeah. It's that fricking simple. In hindsight, of course. We are now in the midst of all this PMI economic news across the globe, not that any of it changes the banking nightmare in the Western world. It's bad enough that one Mr. Fly, who has always insisted that the puppeteers will have no choice but to print en masse sooner or later, is cautioning against hero behavior in this wretched market.

Under a do nothing scenario, stocks will crash. Economies will grind to a halt and life as you know it will change. I am fairly certain, under a full retard scenario, the markets will close, possibly for months until shit gets figured out. They’d have to do this in order to avoid bank runs.
My advice to you: keep the majority of your net worth out of the market. It’s okay to play with stocks, since we all like to gamble. But it won’t be funny if your net worth gets halted for trading for 6 months, while you starve to death in your fucking Mcmansion. This advice applies to short sellers too. Your fantastic tailwinds will be kept away from your purse, if the markets go on holiday.

A bit more from Le Fly regarding the possibility of deflation:

This is as bad as it gets. The markets are tame because people believe QE3 or some bailout is around the corner. If we do not get either, bear with me as I prepare this next sentence: WE ARE GOING DOWN 5,000 DOW POINTS IN SHORT ORDER. 

Rumors that Greece cannot secure credit to buy oil, are running rampant, and have been forced to secure it from large European corporations, with onerous conditions. Spanish and Italian credit is in danger too, which is why oil is tanking so hard. See, boys and girls, that’s what deflation does. Credit is non-existant and money becomes scarce. Food, oil and basic materials will not be delivered.

Update 11:08 pm Business Insider reports that European markets and US futures are sinking because of the PMI data. An hour ago, futures were roughly -45. They're now at -81. But really, the more this teeters off center, the closer the market gets to a reprieve from the central banksters. Or not.

Josh Brown:

In 2008, with global markets in free-fall and the Beijing Olympics looming, the Chinese Ministry of Doing Whatever The Fuck It Wants pulled a stimulus package out of its ass so large that it represented almost 20% of the country's GDP. We're talking General Tso's Shock and Awe. 

And it did the trick - a little too well. Chinese real estate and infrastructure spending went banoodles, getting to the point where they were building ghost cities just to keep the machinery cranking and home prices greatly exceeded what anyone could actually afford to pay. The central government decided enough was enough and began to use policy to tamp down on the bubble. And things haven't been the same ever since.

This story in the NY Times is more than two years old, but already Spanish citizens were stuck between a rock and a hard place, unable to return to farm labor jobs. Like China, an unprecedented construction boom preceded the inevitable downturn in the economy.

Not a pretty place for the average joes of the world. Always getting screwed over, sure 'nuff.

Weekend cinema & library (updated)

10:37 am (Hawaii) Gold (and silver) got a nice gap up this morning thanks to the CME mafia's loosening (death) grip on margin requirements. Most of the market though was flat, meandering, aimless. The skeptic in me wants to be in FAZ since we have Memorial Day weekend ahead and that gives the Euro boneheads three entire days to keep screwing their system up. (Is it reasonable to expect such disparate cultures and nations to be unified? We would never enter a union with Canada, Mexico, Panama and Haiti, would we? Bad comparison, I know, but how can Germany not despise Greece at this point?)

So gold's leap higher appeals to the optimist in me. Maybe the puppeteers are ready to jolt this market to new highs like 2011. But craziness in the euro zone is going to happen, just a matter of when. So I remain neutral, all cash.

Bloomberg: Deutsche Bank's Fitschen said failed Greece lacks leaders (May 25)
Zerohedge: About that European stress test (2011) and where pain in Spain is raining next (May 25)
Zerohedge: Greece has proved that ECB bailout scheme based on lies, fraud (May 25)

Update Monday 8:14 pm The pessimists/realists/skeptics could be right 99% of the time. I could agree with them 99% of the time. But that 1% they're wrong could be precisely when the market bounces. Probably when more fiat starts rolling off the digital presses. Then what? What good will it do anyone to be short the market?

Still, it's good to hear both sides of the story.

Economic Collapse: 25 signs that smart money has written off Southern Europe (May 28)
Reggie Middleton (video): Breaking down muppetology (May 28)
Le Fly: One more great trade until September (May 28)

Huge hump day (updated 9:55 am)

5:31 am (Hawaii) It could be huge. Or just a puff of smoke blowing by. Will anything really change with the "informal" EU summit?

Re-opened a position in FAZ at 28.05. With each passing day in May, it's easy to say in hindsight that it's better to just let a position run. Just hold it overnight; Europe is a long way from printing more euros. But I've been burned before on overnight holds of FAZ. And mornings like this when I can't get wake up before 5 am, too risky. There's time to catch any (Eastern time) afternoon runs.

RTE News: What can the EU summit deliver? (May 23)
Bloomberg: European Banks Unprepared for Greek Exit from Euro (May 23)

Update 6:44 am Stopped out of FAZ at 28.25 (+0.21/share). Tiny profit, I'll take it. Volume at its softest of the day as FAZ faded from its high. Indices are all roughly -1.3%. Nothing bullish (or bearish) out of the EU summit. Yet.

Update 6:58 am Re-entered FAZ at 28.24 as it bounced off a swing to 28.15. Stop loss as always is in place. Volume low, whipsaw action could get more drastic. Maybe at the top of the hour.

Update 7:23 am Stopped out of FAZ at 28.07 (-0.17/share) for a tiny loss. I'm now break even for the day. The chart looks like it's tiring and the indices are starting to rally a bit. (DJ -1.1%, Nas -1%, S&P -1%.) FAZ could jump from here, but I'm not going to force a trade.

AAPL back in the green, now 559.40, up more than $2. No idea if it will stick, though @TraderFlorida has a clear-cut view of where it will go.

Update 7:52 am The Fibonacci retrace from today's high (off yesterday's close of 27.03) is at 27.90. FAZ was at 27.88 just a minute ago, now bouncing to 28.03. Funny how that usually works. A little more volume and I might be convinced.

Update 7:58 am Back in FAZ at 28.06. Stop loss in place.

Update 8:03 am Need to check news far more frequently. This hit the wire at about 7:15 Hawaii time (45 minutes ago):

Bloomberg: Greek Capital Boost May Help Banks to Staunch Deposit Outflows (May 23)

FAZ was at 28.20 before this headline. Then it plummeted to 27.88, which I saw earlier. But I left my stop loss alone after buying at 28.06, and it's now back at 28.10 after wavering below 28. The injection of 18B euros ($23B in dollars) is a band-aid on the bank jog problem.

Update 8:34 am Stopped out of FAZ at 28.12 (+.06/share) for the teeniest of profits. It was up to 28.32 and yanking back violently in the past several minutes on strong volume.

Update 8:44 am That was ugly. Entered FAZ at 28.03, and the second it hit, it slumped to 27.98 and it got fugly after that. Dropped to 27.83 in a matter of 1 minute if that and I was stopped out for a small loss. Volume was big, and I should've taken the cue from a long red candle on the 3-min chart just 12 minutes ago or so. Trying a bit too hard here, time to step away.

Update 9:35 am In AAPL at 568.80. Passed on it earlier at 566. Stop loss is fairly tight. Strictly a day trade. Nasdaq crossed over to green a couple of minutes ago. The summit in Europe has the market bullish for the time being.

Update 9:47 am Out of AAPL at 570.80 (+2.00/share) for a tiny profit. I raised my stop loss a few times, but once it hit 572.80 and sold off fast, I needed to get out. I wanted to change the stop loss to a limit sell for a higher price, but it moved a little faster to the downside and I chose not to get too greedy. Just wanted to get out with a profit and took a price below bid due to the speed of price action downward. (Stop loss was at 570.30, so I did better making the quickie adjustment.)

No way I would've held AAPL overnight. Too much risk at the summit.

Update 9:55 am Euro madness? More like euro anxiety. Tempting to get a little position in FAZ here, being pessimistic on Greece, but probably staying out until we get some news from the summit.

Reuters: Eurozone tells members to make contingencies for Grexit (May 23)

Bankster purgatory

11:45 am (Hawaii) Morgan Stanley (MS) hit 13.90 early in the day as the RobotMarket pushed financials higher and higher for a second day in a row. But it is now at 13.10 and falling after hours on news that Massachusetts has subpoenaed the company over the Facebook mess.

Add to this the coming congressional hearings into JPMorgan that will give every media channel an abundance of Jamie Dimon footage (ie plank walking interrogation) and it's unlikely FAS and the finnies will rally again for awhile. So why am I not long FAZ?

The whole Greek show tomorrow is going to set the table tomorrow. I'd rather wait for that first.

Rudderless market (updated 12:32 pm)

8:08 am (Hawaii) I still think the robots are in control, just not as firmly as yesterday. AAPL ran to 573 and ran out of steam. The buying ended and it has since pulled back to 563 where it drifts in an abyss. The indices looked about ready to give all its gains back today, but have stayed positive in the past hour.

Somehow someway the financials are getting a "lift". That's where I think G8 hit the switch and got the robots cranked up. Again. 95% of my Debt Spiral list is green, and that includes NBG and STD. JPM is up 5.3% to 34.24 even though it is (in my mind) almost certain that their losses are about to double or triple (or worse).

Sure no stock goes to 0 in a straight line, but this is borderline comedy that insolvent institutions are being propped up on nothing (that we peons can know about). In the end, the printing presses will hum. In the end-end, they will not. But that's not today and I haven't hit a buy order yet. All for the best.

Some reading for your pleasure and education:

Jim Wyckoff: Top 10 mistakes traders make (May 21)

Update 9:25 am Back in FAZ at 26.85. I wanted in at 26.70, missed it by a hair. Was looking for a breakout above 26.80 or a pullback to the range low of 26.55. Indices pummeled in the past 15 minutes. Nasdaq in the red with AAPL back to 557.

Greek/Eurozone has a big day tomorrow. Not looking to play either side, just watching FAZ price action, have my stop loss in place. So much for that dead cat bounce. JPM had been up large today, pulling back now to 34.09. It was at 32.99 early today. Might close there, who knows.

When AAPL started to crater, I just didn't have the guts to short it. I've never shorted anything directly, only through something like FAZ. But AAPL has already hit 546 recently, my Fibonacci retrace price (from 396 to the 644 high), and it was at 521 just two sessions ago. Strange times indeed.

Update 9:41 am FAZ reached higher, above 27.40, before pulling back some to 27.29. My stop loss target has been raised three times already. Maybe four.

Greece's former PM feels no obligation to toe the party line, the EU line, the ECB line, any line. His words today are fuel for the fire on financials like JPM, which is now sub 34 (33.93) and eroding.

BBC (video): Papandreou: Greek euro exit would 'destroy' economy (May 22)

Updated 9:52 am Out of FAZ at 27.33 (+0.48/share). Sticking to price discipline even though FAZ could easily open tomorrow above 27.50 or even 28.00 with the way the whole Greek bank run/Eurozone paranoia is shaking out. Just had to secure a decent profit before traders do the same in these final minutes before the bell.

Might try a very small position right before the bell to play tomorrow's scenario. Just don't see the Greeks coming to any kind of compromise with eurozone. It's too early for the new politicians.

Updated 12:32 pm In all, I changed my stop loss on FAZ eight times in that last trade. It was worth it each time.

Weekend library & cinema (updated)

G8 gathers at Camp David this weekend

Boston Globe: An exit by Greece would test the eurozone (May 21)

Business Day: Roubini - Damage from Greek euro exit can be contained (May 21)

Reuters: World leaders back Greece, vow to combat financial turmoil (May 19)

Telegraph: Global banks see market rally on Greek exit (May 18)

"We think the worst is over for the euro," said David Bloom, currency chief at HSBC. "The central banks will have to step in massively and that will be a soothing balm for the markets. The Fed is already leaving the door open for more QE. We could see quite a powerful rally."

Financial Times: Spain hit by rise in bad bank loans (May 18)
ABC News (Australia): Greece tops G8 agenda as markets tumble (May 18)

The World: Moody's downgrades Spanish banks (May 18)

Library of Barcelona

No fizzling out for FAZ (update 11:37 am)

9:02 am (Hawaii) Back from doing some work on the road. Between that and this cold, I've been feeling ragged and had to get sleep this morning. I missed the run for FAZ, which opened in the 27.50s/27.40s area and would've been a great re-entry point. (I sold yesterday at 27.54.) It ran to 28.51, then pulled back to the 28.00 area by the time I woke up. I almost put in a buy order, but the possibility of profit taking at the end of huge week — FAZ was 22.88 a week ago — had me willing to go do my work and be patient.

I re-entered after returning at 27.65. That was just a few minutes ago. It went to 27.76 (and I raised my stop loss), but now it seems profit taking is truly kicking in and my stop-loss price is about to kick in. If that happens, it's a quite small loss and I can live to fight another day. That's the biggest takeaway for this week. Stop-loss is necessary. Mandatory with a fast mover like FAZ (3x ETF). Mandatory with a pushover like GSVC. The big losses are rare but they knock me down and erase all of the small wins. Price discipline is key.

FB is now at 38.65, just over its IPO price, despite a lackluster market. That's being kind. This is a correction we're in. I'll be happy to get some FB at 25 or 30. They always pull back, the IPOs. Doesn't matter how great the stock and company are. Patience is key.

Update 9:20 am Stopped out of FAZ at 28.53 (-0.12/share). Tiny loss. As expected, traders holding from 27.50 this morning or all the way down to 22+ a week ago are cashing in for the weekend. FAZ has bottomed near term at the 28.40 area, now rising again. Should be interesting how the new buyers do against the heavy selling.

Update 9:36 am Back in FAZ at 28.66. Stop loss in place. Seems preposterous to be buying it when I sold yesterday more than a dollar lower, but that was a long time ago in the FAZ universe.

Update 9:39 am FB pulling back to 38.00, but there's a huge wall of buyers there with orders of 16K, 27K, 65K, 51K, 3360K (3.36 million shares?) protecting the price.

Update 9:47 am Stopped out of FAZ at 28.72 for a teeny gain. Thought about selling when it hit 28.92, but that was so quick. It went from that high to 28.80 in an instant. Let the trade ride instead of trying to change, adjust on the fly. That can be dangerous if a stop loss order is changed to a limit order while the price is sprinting either way.

Update 9:52 am It's hard to listen to gold. Spot gold is up big the past three days, an indication that the Fed/puppeteers are ready to unload trillions in new fiat currency. Damn austerity, they cry. So gold is tempering my desire to trade FAZ one more time before the closing bell.

Update 9:57 am Entered DGP at 48.10 before the closing bell. There will be some consensus out of Europe this weekend about stimulus, new bonds, whatever the hell the can imagine and create to soothe the overheated markets. I'm staying out of FAZ here. The only way I'd stay in is if I'd stayed long since 22.88 (a week ago).

Update 10:28 am DGP moving higher after hours, now 48.31 on thin volume. My position is small and it would take a serious move higher for me to consider selling. Weekend in Eurozone at the G8 meeting will be interesting. If there's some progress, FAS will run. If not, the weight of these "bank jogs" will take a toll.

Update 10:38 am I've probably underappreciated the effect of JPM on FAZ today. JPM hit an intraday low of 33.01 or so today, and the news from them continues to be horrible. Loss on that botched "hedge" trade is likely $5B, not $2B or $3B. I won't be surprised when it turns out to be $10B. They can't unwind it so they just keep betting against it on the other end.

So, even if/when Europe starts taking steps toward really dealing with the issues in Greece and Spain (and Portugal, France, etc), FAZ could still jump on problems at JPM. How much, don't know. But the kryptonite will be a new round of stimulus, and there's nothing that will help FAZ by then.

When that round of QE/whatever you want to call it is over, though ... gold and FAZ will spike like nobody's business.

Update 11:37 am FAZ coming down, like yesterday, in after hours trading. Now at 28.65. If it can pull back lower, say to 28.30, I might pull the trigger. Why hold DGP and FAZ? The onset of fiat currency printing alone fuels gold. The bank runs and political schemes to control ban runs, even with G8 strategies, are just a thumb in the dike. Banks are in deep, deep kim chi.

All things bankster (updated 12:30 am)

CNN Money: Moody's downgrades Spanish regions (May 17)
National: Spanish deny report of 1B euro bank run (May 17)
Industry Week: Spain falls into recession amid fears of eurozone bank run (May 17)
Telegraph: Fitch warns of mass eurozone downgrades (May 17)
MarketWatch: Willard on Greece, Apple suppliers (May 17)

AFR: Greece fears hit funding costs (May 17)

Herald: IMF chief outlines 'dire consequences' if Greece drops out (May 17)

USA Today: Greeks pull cash out of banks as confidence wanes (May 17)

KOLO TV: Spanish bank hit by report of withdrawls (May 17)
Globe & Mail: Goldman plans big Facebook selloff (May 17)

4:58 am (Hawaii) Even without making another trade, I find it fascinating, a bit scary and definitely entertaining that the common man in Greece — and now Spain — is taking his and her hard-earned money out of the banks there. The banks can lie to us forever, but how long can we keep believing them?

Update 6:11 am Back in FAZ 25.75. Wish I'd gotten back in at 25.25, but played it safe. Price consolidated for awhile (ie about an hour?) before it jumped at noon Eastern time. Now at 27.24. Put in a stop loss right away and have raised it twice. TZA (3x Small Cap Bear) is interesting too but I'm late on that).

Update 6:21 am Stopped out of FAZ at 27.05 (+0.30/share). Pros and cons of stop loss on a play that has done nothing but go up for the past week. (I had it at 22.88 just a few days ago, sold it too soon.) But FAZ will swing and swing and swing. That is a guarantee. Now at 26.98. Will re-enter at a lower price. Or not.

Update 7:23 am Back in FAZ at 26.82. Stop loss in place. A drop from here to the bell would be the end of a daily streak that takes the price higher from morning/mid-day to close. A lot of "tweezer" candles (as StockGuy22 would say) on the 3-min chart. Not promising.

Update 7:43 am FAZ at 27.00, raised my stop loss. CNBC reports that Fitch has downgraded Greece again.

Update 8:41 am FAZ hit 27.32, high for today. Raised my stop loss again. Debating whether to hold overnight, but price action will dictate before I get to decide, probably.

Update 9:08 am Almost got stopped out of FAZ again, but since it has exploded from the 27.18 area to 27.34 (again). It was tempting to get more shares but I'm comfortable with this position size. Can't make it all back in one swing.

Update 10:08 am Holding FAZ for now. It hovered around 27.70 near the close, then jumped to 27.80 at the bell and is above 27.90 after hours. No question the banksters are shorting themselves and will ride all financial bear ETFs until the money printing machines start humming again. Decided against adding more FAZ (or starting a position in TZA). Stop loss still in place after raising it several times. Giving it more room than usual. Still leery about holding this overnight.

Dow Jones -156 (-1.2%), Nasdaq -60 (-2.1%), S&P 500 -19.94 (-1.5%).

Is this bloodbath the market has "needed"? Or is there more to come? Facebook IPO has priced at 38.

SPY is still positive year to date. JPM closed at 34.05; it opened the new year at 34.06. How close is the market to getting stimulus? All the puppeteers are former bankers or ex-banking lobbyists, Obama needs bankster funding for his campaign, and it's an election year. It's a matter of when, not if, stimulus kicks in.

Update 12:30 pm Chickened out, sold FAZ after hours at 27.54 (+0.72/share). That's well off the high of the day (27.92) and I had plenty of opportunity to sell after the bell when it jumped above 27.80. But by then I started thinking seriously about holding overnight. But I can't do it. It's psychology. If I was making a big profit this year, this would feel like house money I'd be risking. But with the earlier loss today on GSVC, I feel obliged to make up for it. This sale of FAZ covers more than half of that loss. (Though if I'd sold at 27.90, that would've almost made up for the entire loss.)

After hours, the first plan was to hold the FAZ position and a stop loss order at 27.60 (good until cancelled). But as they moved the price into the 27.80s and 27.70s, I thought about selling right there instead. When it dropped to 27.60, that rang bells. Europe will probably be fugly in the morning with bad news and nothing good will come from JPMorgan. But after 11 down days out of 12 in the indices, plus Facebook's IPO, I prefer to stand aside and wait for the next opportunity than risk losing the profit.

Damn I'm a chickenshit!

Blood in the streets?

4:05 am (Hawaii) There's no blood in the streets. Yet. But one blogger/writer yesterday insinuated that the set up is there for an almost necessary bloodbath-type selloff for a couple of days. It was ChessNwine of ibankcoin.com who put it so frankly, and it makes sense. There are just no buyers for a number of reasons. Vacation. Fear. Lack of will.

There's blood in my account, no joke. I held GSVC overnight, it opened at 18.11 and I breathed a little sigh of relief, being down only about a quarter instead of 75 cents a share. Then it sold off for the next 30 minutes to sub 17. And it looked like the orders were after-hours style. In other words, lack of liquidity had the market maker manipulating price action. I got out at 16.80 for a major loss (-1.55/share) that adds up to more than 3% of my entire account.

That may sound insignificant to you, but I'm a small player and every dollar matters. I violated Rule No. 1: Don't lose money. In this instance, the only way I could've prevented this would've been by putting a stop-loss sell order in. I would've done it at 17.50 or so. But there's no question, this little stock is absolutely controlled and somebody cleared out all the stop losses to get the price back down. Another rule I broke: I didn't know that there had been a secondary on Friday (?) with shares at 16.25, which explains why the price tanked that day.

But price discipline, PRICE DISCIPLINE is always key no matter what events occur, and I had none this morning. It's a different time from the flash crash year; stop loss is almost necessary with a small stock in an extremely thin market. I hope this rant of mine helps someone reading this. Get your stop-loss in on a selloff day like this. Sure, the indices are down fractionally, but just about EVERYTHING is red. There are no buyers, and games will be played that take your stocks to shit.

FAZ rocketed above 27, so of course I regret not holding my shares overnight. The JPM news (losses now $3B) set the tone, along with the Greek bank run. FAZ was available at 26.20 or so early on today, but I was preoccupied with GSVC. They moved almost inversely, simultaneously. One plunged, the other surged.

Wednesday wind-down

2:39 pm (Hawaii) Not holding any FAZ, but the more I catch up on news, the more I wonder why I don't have at least a half-position. Chris Martenson's piece at Zero Hedge breaks it down best.

NY Times: Softening, Merkel says she is open to stimulus for Greece (May 16)

Zero Hedge: Martenson - 'We are about to have another 2008-style crisis' (May 16)

Washington Post: How a bank run could force Greece out of the euro (May 16)

BBC (video): Greek Syriza leader Tsipras attacks EU and Merkel (May 16)
BBC: Watch deposit flight, not the eurocrats (May 16)
CBC (video): Greek bank run (May 16)
NY Times: Flight of Euros Accelerates, Adding to Greece's Worries (May 16)
Zero Hedge: This is the Greek ELA Borrowing Capacity (May 16)
Zero Hedge: What Happens if Greek Payments Stop: Goldman's Thought Experiement on 'The Day After' (May 16)
RT (video): Greek bank run starts (May 16)
Bloomberg: Greek Presiddent Told Banks Anxious as Deposits Pulled (May 15)
Zero Hedge: Has the Greek Bank Run Started? (May 15)
Economic Collapse: Bank runs in Greece will be followed by bank runs in other European nations

Funny how CNBC didn't show any footage of Greek bank runs today. Nada.

Windup Wednesday (updated 12:29 pm)

3:34 am (Hawaii) Feels like a pitcher on the mound, finally out of the dugout and throwing his first few pitches. I had bet against that hurler, thinking he'd get hit and hit deep by Europe. But the market is net positive this morning. Green everywhere. It's probably more of a dead cat bounce than anything, but it was enough to chase me out of my position in FAZ at 24.60, taking a loss of 0.70/share. That's a small loss, but it's still a loss and the losses are racking up.

Of course, soon as I sold, FAZ bounced right up to 24.82. So this rally isn't going straight up. Looks and feels more like a range bound move. Still holding GSVC, down a dime or so, not bad.

Update 5:09 am Still holding GSVC, which rallied off its low and is hovering at 18.25. FAZ exploded in the past 7 minutes from sub-25 to 25.27. In other words, had I held, I'd be almost break even.

Dow Jones nearly gave back all of its gains, was at +7 a minute ago. Are the algos buying up dips today? AAPL barely in the green. GRPN exploded to 13+ before pulling back to 12.65.

Update 5:23 am Bloomberg reporting that the ECB will not enact stimulus until June or July. That may explain the jump in FAZ and the selloff in the indices. Or not. Long FAZ at 25.10.

Update 7:10 am Reggie Middleton talked about insolvency in the banksters long ago and he's still right. This video is from around New Year's. He'll continue to be right until the next QE.

 

Update 7:46 am Indices biting the dust again. This has been far more predictable than I ever imagined. Wish I'd noticed the pattern sooner. Interesting piece on a Lehman/Greece comparison. But seeing AAPL plunge from 551 to 546 in the last several minutes is a stunner. I've anticipated AAPL doing a Fibonacci retrace to 546 and here it is. 

Update 8:16 am FAZ running above 25.60 as traders pile on the banksters. Below, the string of afternoon (Eastern time) upswings by FAZ.

Indices are fractionally down, AAPL still holding on at 546.

Update 9:20 am JPM was in the green much of the day, now struggling to stay above 35. That's rock bottom and it will probably dip a little more and remain stagnant for some time. AAPL at 541 ... spooky. This morning, when I sold FAZ (for a small loss), 70% of my Debt Spiral Dance (banksters) list was green. Now? It's 19% green, 76% red. Fugly, indeed.

FAZ his at 25.99. That's green for me, but the downturn in the indices means GSVC sold off in a fugly way, so I'm net down for the day so far.

Update 9:32 am Out of FAZ at 25.95, locked in profit of 0.85/share. There's plenty of upside from here, but 1) there's a huuuge load of shares waiting on the sell block at 25.98, 25.99, 26.00, and 2) this will likely sell into the close as traders rake in profits, and 3) I don't want to hold this overnight again.

This puts me just barely over break even for the day on closed trades. I still have GSVC sitting out there at 17.78, down from my buy yesterday at 18.35. Fugggly.

Update 12:29 pm All kinds of coverage of David Einhorn at the hedge fund conference in NYC. He doesn't say anything about HLF and it spikes 9%. He pans a few other stocks, they crash (get halted too). He raves about AAPL and it goes from 542 to 546 in the final minutes before the close.

Comiskey, Mar 9

FAS vs FAZ

3:16 p.m. I love to yammer on about how the banksters have us all set up. You don't think they've shorted this market? You don't think they even short themselves? Hell yeah they do! They're freaking banksters, remember? All they want is to make profits, nothing else matters. So yeah, you bet your ass they're banking through this downswing, kneecapping every hedge fund and retail trader that went long a week or two ago. They know shit is hitting the fan. So do you and so do I. But do we dive in headfirst?

I liked FAZ at 45. Liked it more at 40. It hit 35 and I was surprised. From there, I really thought the banksters would seize control and send the market into a year-end eruption to new highs. But they actually can't control things in Europe as quickly or smoothly as they can control the Fed and the White House.

So we have FAZ rising to 50 (closing above 49) while FAS fizzles. Where do they go from here? I totally believe in the psychology of round numbers. People are like that. They wince and pucker at certain round numbers and 50 is one of them. I'll watch from the sideline with my binoculars now and then, but it's too busy for me anyway to pay too much attention to the market. Just be cautious out there. Traps are everywhere.

FAZ daily

Today's round of lame news had FAZ roaring higher

FAZ daily

Pushing the higher trendline or gravity kicking in?

Hanging man candle means little with headline risk dominating

FAS daily

Returning to those basement levels again

FAS daily

Generally it's a bad idea to buy anything that has a reverse split.

BAC and FAS come to mind

FAS vs FAZ

12:36 pm (Hawaii) Getting a lot of work done early in the day now that I'm not obsessing over a schizoid market. Yesterday, Italy's chief announced he would step down under conditional terms and the market zoomed. Today, Italy bonds get out of control (again) and the Dow loses 389 points (3.2%). The action was not gray area at all. AAPL sank 2.7% to 395. Financials were fugly.

BAC -5.2% to 6.19, WFC -5.4%, AIG -6.3%, IRE -6.5%, NBG -6.8%, JPM -7.2%, UBS -7.7%, C -8%, STD -8.2%, GS 8.2%, BBVA -8.3%, MS -8.7%, HBC -9.1%, ETFC -9.4%, JEF -10.4%, RBS -11.1%, DB -11.2%.

FAS shrank 14.8%. FAZ went from 39 yesterday to 43+ today with very little selloff into the close. In fact, after I got up, it dropped below 43 to the mid-42s, then ran up above 43.50. On big volume. If you're like me, you know AAPL leads the retail market, and AAPL's selloff today on large volume with that hanging man candle looks simply horrible.

Technicals do not tell us what's going to happen, and they are the mercy of headline risk. But they do provide a visual into the global monetary chaos, and what a friggin mess.

Below, some charts and that includes TVIX, which was up 37% freaking percent! I remain in the bleachers sipping a hot cocoa, cash under the mattress.

FAZ daily

No matter how much weight the banksters have behind their

punch, they can't find resolution to the toxic assets near and far.

FAZ daily

Major move today on heavy volume but I suspect this stays in a 

range between 36 and 44. A break above 44 would tempt.

FAS daily

The breakout momentum was doused today but volume

was not totally indicative of a definite avalanche.

FAS daily

Big move post-pennant? I should've said moves, as in plural!

DGP daily

Down 1.7% today, which makes no sense considering the

mega-printing of fiat that is due globally. Soon.

AAPL daily

One hell of an ugly candle.  

AAPL daily

The move lower was on significant volume.

UUP daily

Mad US dollar!

TVIX daily

37% in one day? This closed at 46.04 yesterday.

TVIX daily

The Italian-German-French-Greek soap opera continues in 

As The Euro Central Bank Turns. Tomorrow's episode: 

Happy bedroom talk resumes and TVIX loses half of

today's enormous gain. 

FASter (updated 318 am HST)

2:32 am (Hawaii) FAS on the move again. Haven't read any headlines and the TV has been off all night. But FAS closed yesterday at 13.75 and is hovering above 14.20 now in premarket trading. Fib retrace would bring it down to 14.04.

Update 2:39 am A lot of speculation yesterday is becoming fact today, possibly, with the Greek PM stepping down today. That opens the door for a new PM, basically a puppet, and that would make the referendum "acceptable" to the United States of Europe, and allow Greece to bounce out of the Euro monetary system. Win-win for all sides, and from what I read yesterday, this trail of madness makes sense in its insane way. In other words, as Turd Ferguson and others have penned, the route to printing paper continues.

Catching up with all this news in Greece as I lay here in bed with my laptop, watching Bloomberg TV online. Yes, I am in bed with Betty Liu. Again.

Obama side by side with Sarkozy. Was this ever really going to fall apart? There's no way the banksters would have let that happen, not this week.

Update 2:47 am FAS made ludicrous surge from 14.15 to 14.53 (in a 2-minute span) before selling back down to 14.35. Bloomberg reporting that the new ECB boss is cutting the base interest rate. The puppet show is ON.

New Fib retrace level for FAS is now 14.23. Currently 14.36.

Update 3:18 am Betty now says Greece PM is "fighting on" and will not resign. I'm glad I'm not trading on these contrary bizarro headline news. FAS is holding at 14.36 so far, but 14.23 (Fib retrace) is in range. I don't like these wacko reports though. They're all lying, aren't they?

More likely, the Greece PM is Dr. Jekyll when he's corralled by Euro interests, then is back to Mr. Hyde when he is back home.

Tuesday cinema & library (updated 530 pm HST)

Blogs

(new) Charles Hugh Smith: The stock market megaphone pattern that should terrify you (Nov 1)

(new) Cullen Roche: The ugly math behind Italy's sovereign debt crisis (Nov 1)

(new) Golden Truth: US banking system more leveraged now than 2008 (Nov 1)

(new) Peter Brandt: What charts say about US stock market (Nov 1)

Zero Hedge: Morgan Stanley on Greece, why it is very Euro negative (Nov 1)

Turd Ferguson: MFing Global (Nov 1)

Lance Roberts: Fed trapped by inflation, there will be no QE3 tomorrow (Nov 1)
Reggie Middleton: Greco-Franco bank run has skipped pond, landed in NY/Chicago (Nov 1)
Zero Hedge: How US banks are lying about European exposure (Nov 1)
SGS: Carnage update (Nov 1)

Le Fly: Life could be worse (Nov 1)
Jake Gint: Pumpkin head market (Nov 1)
Cain Thaler: I'll take a break from pessimism (Nov 1)
Rajun Cajun: Pullback to the 20-day (Nov 1)
chessnwine: Melting away the coked-up rally (Nov 1)

SGS: MF bankruptcy, Turk and coming housing collapse (Oct 31)

Vlogs

bigdad06: China moves on water! (Nov 1)

manoftruth: Europe, Greece, US and total economic collapse (Nov 1)
RT: Domino effect? 'Debt unpayable, Greece to exit Euro mess' (Nov 1)
chessnwine: Stock market recap (Nov 1)

RT: Lauren Lyster (Nov 1)

Gerald Celente: Liberty Plaza, part 3 (Nov 1)

(new) NewAmericaNow: Greece: SHTF imminent (Nov 1)

(new) Christopher Greene: MF Global is next Lehman (Nov 1)

Audio

Mainstream
(new) Business Insider: Europe - What to expect in the next 24 hours (Nov 1)

(new) Business Insider: The scariest chart in Europe: Italy-German 10-year spread (Nov 1)

(new) Business Insider: Here's who is freaking out now that Greece will hard default (Nov 1)

(new) Business Insider: Fitch joins mass freak-out over Greek referendum (Nov 1)

Bloomberg: Wen may loosen credit as China inflation cools (Nov 1)
Bloomberg: All MF Global funds accounted for (Nov 1)
Bloomberg: EU leaders hold pre-G20 crisis talks (Nov 1)
AP: Greek govt in chaos with debt deal in doubt (Nov 1)

(new) Business Insider: Papandreou gets cabinet to rally around referendum (Nov 1)
Reuters: Germans warn of Greek euro exit after referendum gambit (Nov 1)

Bloomberg: Selling more insurance on shaky European debt raises risk for US banks (Nov 1)
NBC: FBI, federal prosecutors to join inquiry into Corzine firm (Nov 1)
Investopedia: The history of Greek sovereign debt defaults (Sept 26)

(new) Business Insider: The sad story of why everyone's angry at Italy (Sept 23)

Trick or Treat?

FAS vs FAZ - Discipline vs Emotion (updated 3:57 pm HST)

FAZ daily

Another 10+% move, now up roughly 25% in two days.

Note the four boxes. In each of those 3-day time spans,

FAZ volume exploded in similar sequence.

Each time, FAZ sold off drastically after those 3 days.

We're at the end of another of those 3-day boxes.

FAZ daily

I guessed yesterday that the new range would be 36 to 42, the

latter being previous support. Today's candle is not quite bullish,

and though a lot of traders think rising volume is good, sometimes

it indicates a blow-off top. That's been true of FAZ lately.

FAZ daily

This kind of exploding volume, the last 3 days worth,

happens often enough in FAZ. Kind of like a drunkard getting

ready to ralph. Full pukeage tomorrow?

FAS daily

Though FAZ looks about to pass out from fatigue, FAS and

this hanging man candlestick look horrendous. More so with

the conviction of this volume. Then again, there might not be

any sellers left.

FAS daily

Off today's low, just barely. Entering here is only for the brave.

I have no love for the banksters, but I did trade FAS from 11 (or so)

to 11.33 a week or two ago. No way to know where it bottoms

this time.

12:26 pm (Hawaii) My first look at FAZ as a buying opportunity today came after the rise to 44+. I waited for 42.96 as a Fib retrace and possible entry point. I missed it, felt fine. It ran up to 45, came back down and I waited to see if 42.96 would hold. It did not. All the stops and profit-taking kicked in as FAZ sank to below 42.30. I didn't nibble. I went to sleep at around 5:30 am local time.

Near the end of the day, FAZ ran again on yet another intraday dip. The Fib retrace this time was 43.67. Sure enough, FAZ ran from 45+ down below 44 and briefly touched the 43.60s. Again, I didn't step in. FAZ ran above 44, then to 45. What did I do? I chased at 45.15, debated on getting out before the bell at a little above break-even, broke discipline and held it. As usual, FAZ sold off right after the closing bell and remains at just above 44.00 after hours.

This is the difference between knowing and executing, discipline and emotion. I normally refuse to hold FAS or FAZ overnight due to European lunatic behavior. But this time, I intend to walk out and take a small loss strictly because the market has sold off several hundred points on the Dow in two days, and Helicopter Ben is speaking tomorrow. I will not test that tar pit of death. Sure, FAZ will run higher eventually, but it's time for a breather and traders will jump out as they already have late today. If it returns to 40 or 35+, better price.

Maybe Bernanke says nothing tomorrow. Maybe the chatter about Greek default and investor lawsuits against MF Global gets heavier. Maybe it's time for me to establish a longer-term position in FAZ. Too many maybes equal probably not.

Update 3:57 pm If FAS does a 5o% Fib retrace off its recent high, that would bring it to 12.58. It hit a low of 12.72 today. Close enough? Won't surprise me if FAS bounces tomorrow.

FAS vs FAZ - Early morning edition

1:57 am (Hawaii) Just a few minutes until we peons can participate in premarket trading. I have no idea if the Euro geniuses will come out with some crazy, unbelievable new "plan" that will save the market today. But for now, FAZ is up big and FAS is down big. FAZ, which I thought might open premarket at 42, is actually at 43.45. FAS is sinking toward 13. That's right, FAZ is already up 9.2%.

FAZ daily

Who knows what kind of shenanigans the puppeteers have

in pre-premarket for us peons. For now, looks like the banksters

got some 'splainin' to do.

FAZ daily

The banksters will win in the end, but it won't be a knockout.

Not even corporate-backed government can save every bank.

The process of elimination and consolidation will reek with

unfathomable and undeniable stench. There will be money to

be made in that ugliness. 

FAS daily

Quickly to 15 and 16, quicker back to 13?

FAS daily

So if everyone's sitting on the sideline, who moved the market 

up last week? Yes, of course. Big Brother to the rescue.

Again. Just like 2008.