Game on: Rare earths playing tough

3:51 am (Hawaii) ZSL gaining in the past several minutes as gold and silver paper sell off. Note that the indices are now in green territory. XG tanking as it often does, but I'm not selling and I'm not adding more. This small position is more than enough exposure to the wacky miners. DGP's modest gain has dissipated. GSVC was green, but is now red. Not selling, but I'll look to add when it nears 15.55 (50% retrace from pre-second surge that went to almost 20).

SHZ has lifted to 3.34 on the rare-earths run today and yesterday. Strictly a day trade and will fall on its face once AVL, REE and MCP get hit with profit-taking. I saw SHZ at 3.26, saw it come back to 3.23 and wanted it at 3.19 (50% retrace of today's early gain). But it didn't get there and ran higher. Still watching, but this would be a tiny position anyway. Not chasing. I think.

Weekend cinema & library

Video

MaxKeiserTV: Why don't Greece, Spain float their income-producing assets? (July 8)

Minyanville: Are you smarter than a Wall Streeter (July 8)

James Dines: Now predicts silver to reach $300-$500 an ounce (July 8)

Alex Jones: Bob Chapman interview (July 8)

Alex Jones: Top Mexican drug dealer says US Gov gave them guns (July 8)

Vlogs

VictoryIndependence: Operation QE3 is a go! Unemployment report a disaster (July 8)

visionvictory: Gold goes vertical, unemployment, random check points (July 8)

SGTbull07: Jeff Nielsen on new Pan Asian Gold Exchange: Game changer? (July 8)

silverfuturist: $300 silver but when? (July 8)

morganslv: Silver holding @ 36+ (July 8)

george4title: Woman faces 90 days in jail for planting garden (July 8)

ScrapGoldBusiness: Retiring on welfare? (July 8)

zen5678: Castastrophe: When the dollar crashes (July 8)

PastorDowell: Silver update, keep stackin friends (June 28)

PastorDowell: Silver update advice for you (Apr 19)

PastorDowell: Never give up your guns! (Feb 22)

theeastwatch: Time to sell silver (Apr 19)

Reports & Blogs

Simon Black: Congress wants automatic wage deductions to pay down the debt (July 8)

Commodity Online: India to import 350 tons of gold, 1,200 tons of silver (July 7)

CNBC: Common politics muddy waters in rare earth discovery (July 6)

Jim Powell: Meeting the critical metals demand (June 28)

Titilating Thursday

10:20 am (Hawaii) Quite a stimulating session for bulls. I was asleep, away in Dreamland. Must've been good. I don't remember a thing, but my countenance is even. Meanwhile, the indices finished positive. The Nas up for an eighth day in a row.

I stayed out after watching the open. I missed this run up and I didn't want to catch the inevitable fall down. As expected, hotties XG and EXK made pit stops today after major moves higher. XG down 0.8% to 14.37 (afterhours) and EXK down 0.5% to 9.66.

More numbers came out today, more positive for the market, but really, it's all momentum based on the assumption that the debt ceiling will be raised and that the Eurozone has a better grip on its debt crisis for now. It's like this: FAS and FAZ are at extremes from one day to the next, regardless of how the indices are doing. Logically, FAZ should be crushing, but there's JPM (+1.9%), Citi (+1.7%), BAC (+1.7%), STD (+1.2%), GS (+0.9%) and so on. All these banksters eventually will run out of government handouts. Just a matter of when the plug gets pulled and they start gagging on their own poison. I don't think the big boys will die. They'll just languish until the market corrects itself without the life support provided by the doomed fractional reserve system.

My Metals list is 71% green, but the depth of huge gainers has been reduced. "Only" 18 issues gained at least 1.5%. FAS and UCO are in this list as convenient indicators for the broader view, but both were up more than 4% today. REE (+3.8%), PALL (+2.8%), MCP (+2.5%), CU (+2.4) were very strong for the rare earths and non-gold, non-silver traders. Copper's recent run hasBrother Turd pointing to a possible repeat of its run of last year.

You've probably been wondering about that, too. With Greece and the global debt crises, so much is similar to last year's market behavior: Lackluster in the spring, total launching pad in July and rocket ship action to the end of the year. Is that going to happen again in 2011? If they kick the proverbial can down the road again, it's clear the big money would like this to be so. Self-fulfilling prophecy and all that.

But I would add this: volume is sinking as this hot streak of the past week-plus continues. Here's a look at today's big winners on my Metals list.

FAS - volume up today compared to yesterday

UCO - volume way up, nearly double

REE - volume lower

PALL - volume lower

MCP - volume lower

CU - volume higher

AGQ - volume lower

PSLV - volume similar

AVL - volume lower

JJC - volume lower

COPX - volume HUGE

GG - volume higher

XME - volume lower

PLTM - volume higher

PGM - volume lower

AG - volume lower

DBB - volume similar

GOLD - volume higher

AGOL - volume higher

PPLT - volume HUGE

SLV - volume lower

WITE - volume lower

DBS - volume lower

Those are the metals on my list that were up more than 1%. For the most part, volume was lower today going into tomorrow's key report. It's been a quiet week, news wise, in Europe, and last week's end-of-month window dressing has carried over.

My Regular watch list is 78% green with PSUN, yes that PSUN (occasionally loved by Le Fly) up 10.2% today. There's better depth here than in my Metals list.

PSUN - volume HUGE

WNR - volume up big

VCLK - volume up

VLO - volume up HUGE

FCX - volume up HUGE

LVS - volume up HUGE

MNW - volume up

SWY - volume lower

RLOC - volume lower

CLNE - volume lower

GOOG - volume higher

ENY - volume similar

USO - volume higher

AMRN - volume higher

APC - volume similar

OWW - volume lower

FORM - volume higher

MSFT - volume higher.

All of these are stocks that gained at least 2% with the exception of MSFT (+1.8%). AAPL (+1.6%) moved up to 357 on lower volume. AMZN up 1.5% on higher volume. BIDU up 0.8% on similar volume. NFLX up 0.8% on lower volume.

It's good to be aware of the surroundings. Not everyone had the foresight to park money in NFLX, PCLN and AAPL below 50 and forget about it for a few years.

Rare earth Thursday

5:23 am (Hawaii) This week's bull run continues. DJ up 142 points (+1.1%) to 12,404. Nas up 30 points (+1.1%) to 2,771. S&P up 12.25 points (+0.9%) to 1,319. Metals list is 47% green, 48% red, 5% neutral. Rare earths are tearing higher. MCP (+6.6) is up $3.76 to 60.78. It was at 52 last week, dipping on news of major insider sales. REE is up 6.1% to 11.14. AVL is higher by 5.8% to 6.89.

The rest of the metals are up fractionally, none more than 1.5% with a few exceptions like CU, COPX, SVM, XME.

XG (+1.3%) and GDXJ (+1.2%) have decent gains so far. It smells like the run is petering out.

My Regular watch list is 68% green, 32% red. Ford (+3.5%), TSO (+3.2%) and RLOC (+2.7%) are among the leaders. Is this the end of the end-of-month window dressing? Tomorrow is July 1, so we'll find out soon enough. Today's supposed to mark the end of QE2, but all signs point to almost no fear of a prolonged hiatus until QE3. It appears improbable, even impossible, for the Fed to rule out the option of printing more dollars. There is no tangible alternative on the table, nor the political will to truly explore a cure for the ailing system.

Is the American public willing to take the medicine necessary? Are the powers that be willing to go down so we can transition to a new system? Of course not, not when it means losing billions of dollars. But the lie can't last forever.

Update 5:43 am (Hawaii) Financials are up across the board. SCGLY (+3.1%), NBG (+2.9%), BBVA (+2.7%), STD (+2.4%), DB (+1.6%) showing strength across the Eurozone. JPM, C, GS up fractionally. BAC down 1.2% on bad news yesterday. IRE down 1.8%. Finnies basically leading the run this week.

Raquel Welch

Silver, gold squished, but rare earths are hot

3:41 am (Hawaii) A rare morning of no sleep, just stayed up through the night. Being a night owl, that's not hard. But I will crash out soon enough and leave the market to the rest of you crazy people, trying to trade this madness ...

Well, the bad news is silver plays are getting scorched. ZSL is up 2.3% to 18.92. But a sidelight is the way rare earth plays are also near the top of my Metals list. MCP is +2.3% to 55.18, off its early high of 55.50. REE is also pushing toward the top, up 1.6% to 10.67. AVL is hot, too (+2.4%).

Gold is also getting sandblasted. Crude oil is down again, which is positive for SCO (+1.8%). Metals list is 41% green, 49% red.

AAPL is fractionally higher. All in all, a blaaah kind of open. No catalyst in sight for bulls. The bear view is middling at best, though things could get interesting going into the close for something like FAZ. Or if Spot Silver is ready to drop through 34, ZSL would be a possible ride.

Hitting for power

6:59 am (Hawaii) Just got up to another cool morning in the islands, a nice 73 degrees, partly cloudy, low humidity. The market is where it's hot. Dow up 91.96 (+0.78%), Nas up 47.31 (+1.8%), S&P +14.60 (+1.1%).

Silver is on fire and dominating the top of my Metals list, which is 79% green, 19% red. Unlike other up days, volume is huge so far, which has me intrigued.

AG 17.85, +7.1%
SVM 9.16, +6.9%
EXK 8.37, +6.5%
PAAS 30.36, +6.3%
NUGT 28.73, +5.5%
AVL 6.56, +5%
XG 11.99, +4.9%
SLW 32.57, +4.5%
EGO 13.99, +4%
SIL 23.46, +4%
GOLD 77.69, +3.5%
GDXJ 33.67, +3.16%

All of these upside plays are close to yesterday's volume or, like EXK and XG, have already surpassed it. How is this possible? US Dollar down, Euro up, Greece going through the formalities after the closing bell. Bernanke to speak tomorrow. Even AAPL is up 2.8% to 324.27.

Is it just about Greece and the Euro? I'd say it was a weak dead-cat bounce, but on this kind of volume? The finnies are up big. NBG (+7.4%), BBVA (+2.6%), STD (+2.4%), C (+1.8%), BAC (+1.1%), GS (+1%), GS (+1%), JPM (+0.6%) all up. FAZ down 2.9%.

Whatever the reason, EXK once again bounced off the 7.50-7.60 area. This is no place to chase here.

As for rare earths, AVL is hot on fair volume, MCP is up 1.3% to 53.11 on tiny volume, and REE is up 2% to 10.36, also on very small volume. They had their big run yesterday, but today isn't all bad at all. Looking forward, I'm leaning more toward trading in rare earths and/or holding a small long-term position. Otherwise, I'm still 90% cash, haven't made a trade in nearly two weeks. The game plan was to wait until tomorrow for a signal in either direction and I'm content waiting this out.

My Regular watch list is 87% green, 13% red. The big boys like AAPL, DIS, GOOG, NFLX are up, but on low volume. The smaller players like LULU are up on huge volume (+5%).

Rare, indeed

11:22 am (Hawaii) Rare earth plays looked strong today. Good moves to the upside on increased volume. Nothing in this market is moving with mass volume and momentum, but these guys are not just well off their highs, but are going to continue in the long term to be solid even in a down economy due to their status in electronics, technology. Defense weapons. Batteries. Plus, China supposedly is home to 95% 97% of the planet's rare earths. The biggest advantage may be this: rare earths are NOT manipulated by the banksters. As of now, there is no exchange-traded puppetry of rare earths. I doubt the Chinese would go for that — backing an American bankster mafia exchange with their rare earths.

How long until Hang Seng or Shanghai open their own RARE EARTH COMMODITY EXCHANGE? I say there's one by January 1, 2012.

A look at MCP: 3-month chart and 1-year. Huge gain since IPO.

A look at smaller rare earth plays AVL and REE:

Wikipedia: Rare earth element

Barron's: Molycorp jumps as analysts heap on praise (June 20 2011)

Barron's: Molycorp's CEO's $8.9 million sale (June 20 2011)

Reuters: Molycorp sees Sumitomo deal closing by September (June 20 2011)

Seeking Alpha/Dr. Duru: Chinese academic's rare earth forecasts at odds with experts (June 20 2011)

(video) CNTV: Restructuring China's rare earth industry (June 20 2011)

China Daily: Rare earth supplies expected to grow (June 16 2011)

(video) BBC: Rare earths mining: China's 21st century gold rush (June 16 2011)

Jeb Handwerger: Why China's rare earth exports really matter (June 7 2011)

Seeking Alpha/Engineer Broker: Molycorp target is $472, 2H 2013 (May 31 2011)

Wall Street Journal: China rare earth exports rise (May 21 2011)

BBC: China expands export quotas of rare earth metals (May 19 2011)

Wall Street Journal: A warning on rare earth elements by GS (May 6 2011)

Jack Lifton: In Xanadu, did GS decree a rare earths surplus? (May 6 2011)

Alacra Pulse: JP Morgan's Michael Gambardella raises MCP target to $74 (Mar 29 2011)

Reuters: China rare earth prices explode as export volumes collapse (Mar 22 2011)

The Telegraph: Rare earths: Why China is cutting exports crucial to Western technologies (Mar 19 2011)

Reuters: China to tighten limits on rare earth exports (Dec 29 2010)

Seeking Alpha: Rare earth metals not so rare but valuable (Nov 4 2008)

Inner Mongolia

Euro up? Dollar up? Metals up?

9:29 am (Hawaii) Fell fast asleep the past several hours on this cool, wet Honolulu morning. Sleep in cool weather is always appreciated. So is a market that is not outright destroyed by the puppet masters. The indices are fractionally higher. My Metals list is 57% green, 41% red.

Gold (1541, +0.1%), Silver (35.99, +0.6%) are holding up after yesterday's Forex.com news. Platinum (-1.1%) and Copper (-0.6%). Palladium -0.3%).

SLW has held its gains (3%), along with today's leader, MCP (+7.3%), though MCP has lost a bit of its huge gain. GPL, REE, SVM, AVL all up big today. GG, PASS, NUGT, NGD and EXK up more than 1.3%.

As was the case last Thursday, today's gainers are up on scant volume. They are having a snack, a little bag of chips or half an apple or a cup of yogurt. This won't sustain them for the week.

As Greece and the Euro zone figure out their problems, financials are bracing for the worst. The finnies on my Debt Spiral list are all in the red again, though mostly less than -1%. My favorite play in this spiral is FAZ, which is near flat for the day. Again, volume is light and probably will be until Bernanke speaks on Wednesday.

My other favorites, little miners EXK (+1.5% to 7.82) and XG (+1.1% to 11.40) have low volume. Double-long gold ETN DGP is barely green (49.18).

In other words, this was a good day to sleep in.

AAPL has bounced off its low (310.50) and is at 314.91, down nearly 2%. Still an unhealthy indicator for the market and techs. Crude oil (93.25, +0.2%) flat. US Dollar up 3¢ to 75.52.

Update 10:19 am (Hawaii) Forgot to note that GLD and SLV traded anemically today after yesterday's Forex.com news. GLD traded 19.2 million shares on Friday, just 10.4 mil today. SLV had 23.6 mil on Friday, 21.0 mil today. Did fear creep in? Maybe. I still think things are flat as a banana pancake until Bernanke on Wednesday.

Tuesday lunch munch

How's the ice down there?

7:15 am (Hawaii) Just woke up to a sunny, cool morning in the islands. Could not get that darn wireless connection going for an hour, so I'm out of bed and sitting at the desk. Just as well. There's a new Max Keiser report out, some good stuff with David Morgan about Utah's new precious metals coinage enacted into law.

China's inflation number (5.5%) met expectations, but is that really enough to slow bearish momentum?

My Metals list is 71% green, 28% red. The glaring common denominator, though, is that volume is anemic. Though we're just past halfway for the day, volume is scant, just like it was a few days ago when the market slide halted for a day. Top gainers so far: REE (+6.7% to 6.81), AVL (+6.6% to 6.28), EXK (+6.2% to 8.13), AG (+5.9% to 17.44), GPL (+4.9% to 3.00). That's two up days for GPL. SVM, AGQ, NGD, MCP and NUGT are also more than 3% up. A lot of big percentage gainers, but with so few shares traded, this could easily get shredded by the alien machines before the closing bell. My hunch is the gains will be pared somewhat, but still finish up nicely for the day. But with the poor volume, the downtrend will resume tomorrow.

TWN (-4.5%), ZSL (-4.3%), SCO (-3.8%), DUST (-3.8%) and FAZ (-3.4%) are the worst losers thus far.

Dow Jones +1.2%, NAS +1.5%, S&P +1.4%.

My Regular watch list is 86% green, 14% red, but again, volume is miniscule. There aren't many sellers, but there are even fewer buyers. It's the machines keeping the market above thin ice. AAPL is up 1.5% to 331.44, but volume is just 6.9 mil shares compared to yesterday's 11.7 mil.

(video) Max Keiser: Economic melt-through, David Morgan (June 14 2011)
Zero Hedge: Standard Chartered: '3 factors will drive gold to $5,000' (June 14 2011)
Standard Chartered: In gold we trust (full report) (June 14 2011)

Heavy Metal Movement

10:25 am (Hawaii) Bouncy day in precious metals today. Moves of 1.5% and higher in dozens of PM plays. Smaller miners gained huge chunks on light volume. GPL (+10.9%) to 2.85. AG (+6.4%) to 18.69, XG (+6.1%) to 11.30. EXK (+5.9%) to 8.44. AVL (+5.1%) to 6.41. But again, the soft buying isn't convincing.

GPL 2.5 mil shares traded yesterday, 1.8 mil today
AG 1.36 mil yesterday, 976K today
XG 257K yesterday, 230K today
EXK 4.1 mil yesterday, 2.0 mil today
AVL 2.5 mil yesterday, 1.5 mil today

It goes on and on. My gut said, Get some EXK and XG before the bell. But the numbers spell out the truth: PMs are still on thin, thin ice here. After six sessions in a row of struggle, the dead cat bounced high. But now it's flat on its face again.

My Metals list is 72% green, 26% red. It feels not good to have not a shred of profit off this, but I don't need to be early to make money. If this bounce is for real and PMs are ready to rally, I've got time. But gold has flopped about in the past two summers even in the midst of a bull market. Instead of following risk-crazy fish out of water to be dead on some boat, I'll be a pilot fish and follow the whales and sharks carefully.

The worst plays on my Metals list: MCP (-4.1%), DUST (-3.5%), ZSL (-3.1%), FSG (-1.4%).

Still have my small position in DGP, which is up 0.9% to 49.44. I'm 90% cash.

Say whuutt?

8:44 am (Hawaii) Tried to stay up, mostly slept through the session so far. An hour away from Helicopter's speech. The market has reverse from moderately negative to moderately (0.5-0.6%) positive and silver plays are en vogue. AVL (+3.3%), EXK (+3.0%), AGQ (2.9%) are the top gainers on my Metals list. PALL (+2.7%), MCP (+2.6%) are also up nicely.

(Note: These are up on roughly half of yesterday's volume. Machinery. It's the machines buying into the Bernanke speech. Humans are on the sideline. It's a lure, I'm guessing.)

Gold is still laying low after being sniped twice earlier. I saw that in my doldrums, trying to stay awake. The Spot charts don't exactly tell the tale. Take a look at the 1-minute charts. Absolutely goosed and gutted first at 10:53 am (Eastern) and again at 11:14 am (Eastern). Pure manipulation that is more common in Spot Silver than Gold. Still, buyers have bid up price almost back to the 10:53 level.

The assassination attempt on Gold seemed to indicate that some of the big boys got wind of Helicopter's theme for the speech and unloaded in panic. Controlled panic. What if they're wrong? What if they were bluffed? Who ends up holding the bag when he starts talking 15 minutes before the closing bell? What if he delays until after the bell?

Way too many questions. This is no place to start a new position long or short. I remain 90% cash.

My bad

8:30 am (Hawaii) Woke up about 10 minutes ago and saw AGQ up nicely. The whole Metals List practically was in the green. But now AGQ has sold off from 174 to 171. (It was above 177 a couple of hours ago.)

Sorry.

I don't like sleeping through the session, but that's unavoidable sometimes being out here in the middle of the Pacific. That's just the reality, but I can do things to try and manipulate it, like get more exercise so I get sleepier earlier. Then I could actually sleep from maybe 10 pm to 2 am, just enough to get me rested for premarket. I'm sure there are a few people here in the islands who do this full-time, whether at home or in some office.

Turd Ferguson, as usual, was spot on about Spot Gold (1493) and Silver (34.93). (Silver is down from the 35.50 level.) The bounce was coming. Also very correct was Le Fly, who wrote last night that these levels were oversold.

Overall, it's a nice bounce for precious metals and crude oil. I could say something like, aw, too bad, look at silver tank. But it's a mixed bag really. If Spot goes up too high, I'll have to pay higher prices for physical. So that's how things have changed in my perspective in the past few weeks. In fact, that Scottsdale 10-oz stacker was at $373 a couple of days ago. Now it's $383.

Update 8:40 am (Hawaii) Spot Silver down to 34.73, approached the pre-jump level of 34.50ish. The jump began roughly at 9 am Eastern and continued even after London closed shop two hours later. AGQ tumbling downhill, now 169.77.

ZSL (20.09, -5.1%) is still the second-worst loser on my Metals List, topped only by SCO (44.81, -5.4%). Top gainers are GPL (2.99, +7.1%), AGQ (+5.3%), UCO (48.11, +5.2%), EXK (8.70, +3.9%), AVL (7.12, +3.8%), AG (17.55, +3.5%), PSLV (15.92, +3.2%), DBS (60.95, +2.8%) and SLV (33.99, +2.7%).