The short squeeze continues for Under Armor.
The stock traded as high as $70.75 this morning despite the selloffs in the Dow Jones and Nasdaq. Since closing at $55 on the eve of its earnings report last week, UA is up 27%. With short interest at 50%, there's no way to know where the stock tops at in the short term.
UA longs, of course, are still feeling good after the Co beat estimates and raised guidance. It'll be tough for UA shorts to watch football on TV, though, with Under Armor commercials bombarding the airwaves.
Pupule Paul is slightly long UA.
Showing posts with label Under Armor. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Under Armor. Show all posts
Thursday, August 9, 2007
Wednesday, August 8, 2007
UA putting on the squeeze
While Crocs (CROX) moves forward and distances itself step by step from Q2 blowout earnings and raised guidance, the stock continues to consolidate in the mid to high 50s. With the Nasdaq up 42 points (1.6%) today, CROX has pulled back. The stock is down 1.2% to $56.69.
Meanwhile, Under Armor (UA) continues to gain steadily. UA's report annihilated estimates last week and short interest was 50%. Insane. At $67.30, UA is up nearly 5% so far today.
Cramer was right. He called UA a better move in the short term. Depending on how you look at it, though, CROX is still selling at a discount.
Pupule Paul is long CROX and UA.
Meanwhile, Under Armor (UA) continues to gain steadily. UA's report annihilated estimates last week and short interest was 50%. Insane. At $67.30, UA is up nearly 5% so far today.
Cramer was right. He called UA a better move in the short term. Depending on how you look at it, though, CROX is still selling at a discount.
Pupule Paul is long CROX and UA.
Friday, August 3, 2007
The Mad Pump: LULU
Cramer is pumping lululemon athletica today. Again.
But this time more in depth, calling it "Under Armor in 2004." He could be right, of course, because the growth numbers for LULU are extraordinary. As he put it, the "Under Armor for the New Age crowd." He did advise that this is not the time to buy in. I'm pretty sure buyers will keep buying LULU, which tailed off with the market today, only its second down day since debuting last week.
As long as Cramer pumps LULU on his show, the stock will be vital. Same happened with Spartan Motors (SPAR), a great Co with great numbers that went from $14 (pre-3 for 2 split) to $25. The stock cratered, though, after its growth rate slowed (couldn't get enough new contracts to satisfy the market) and is now trading at $12. Still the same great Co. Just a different mentality from the traders.
LULU is in a different space, downward dog and all. It can grow in its niche, just as UA and CROX do. I just think CROX still has the most widespread effect and potential. I think LULU will be more alluring after the 15-day, no-short period ends and the stock finally levels out, just as most IPOs do. Even Google dropped to $85 awhile after its debut.
But this time more in depth, calling it "Under Armor in 2004." He could be right, of course, because the growth numbers for LULU are extraordinary. As he put it, the "Under Armor for the New Age crowd." He did advise that this is not the time to buy in. I'm pretty sure buyers will keep buying LULU, which tailed off with the market today, only its second down day since debuting last week. 
As long as Cramer pumps LULU on his show, the stock will be vital. Same happened with Spartan Motors (SPAR), a great Co with great numbers that went from $14 (pre-3 for 2 split) to $25. The stock cratered, though, after its growth rate slowed (couldn't get enough new contracts to satisfy the market) and is now trading at $12. Still the same great Co. Just a different mentality from the traders. LULU is in a different space, downward dog and all. It can grow in its niche, just as UA and CROX do. I just think CROX still has the most widespread effect and potential. I think LULU will be more alluring after the 15-day, no-short period ends and the stock finally levels out, just as most IPOs do. Even Google dropped to $85 awhile after its debut.
A- picks mostly underwater today, but UA still on fire
Less than an hour left in today's session. I woke up a few minutes ago and found a whole lot of blood on my black screen.
Not shocked, not even surprised. This is the market as it lives and breathes today. It's part of the reason why some people went into the real estate business. Especially in Hawaii, land is more than gold. It's certainly a limited commodity. But I digress. Damn this market is schizo!
On my recently updated A- pick list, seven stocks are down and three are up.
The three A- kings that are standing tall today are Garmin, Nintendo and Under Armor. Garmin is robust and hit $100 for the first time. Yes, I'm still in a house of pain because I passed on GRMN earlier in the week at $83 on the eve of earnings. So much for a pullback. GRMN is kicking tail as the rest of the market drowns in red.
Nintendo (NTDOY.PK) is up fractionally in the $57 range. Current bid is $57.35. Tempting at this level since it pulled back from $65 on July 26. This is the first stock I've owned that is subject to an outside market. Completely. As a pink sheet here, it doesn't trade in extended hours. The stock simply, though it doesn't necessarily have to, trades as a mirror to "7974," which is its ticker on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. When extended hours ends in the U.S. — 8 p.m. Eastern — the TSE begins trading. Too bad there's no overlap.
The big gainer of the A- kings is Under Armor (UA), which roared to $68.24 before pulling back. UA is trading at $64.75, up 4.4%. The stock has a short interest of 50% and has been en fuego since blowing out earnings estimates this week.
The downers included Foster Wheeler (FWLT), which has given back more than 5% today and is trading at $111.42. Though FWLT announced a nice deal with Sinopec on Wednesday, the stock sold off more than 6% today. With earnings due out on Wednesday, FWLT looks like a discount buy here.
Crocs (CROX), meanwhile, is down 2.4% to $58.88. The stock has seen dwindling volume in recent days and was due for a pullback after being up in four out of the last five sessions. CROX is trading at $58.97.
Ron Snyder, Crocs CEO, exercised options on more than 234,000 shares on Tuesday. He sold them at $59 to $60.10 each, which means he raked in nearly $14 million. His reward for another outstanding quarter. Those who think CEOs get paid too much will quibble. I suggest that they apply for his job and try to steer this juggernaut as well first.
I'm completely for restraint when it comes to outlandish salaries. I'm also for the kind of incentive-based pay that Snyder gets. You perform, you are rewarded. Happens in professional and college sports, as well, so the socialist line of thinking should apply there, as well. There's a reason why America continues to produce great companies, even in an economic slowdown, while more socialist-flavored, laid-back nations remain stagnant.
When's the last time France produced a great company anyway? But again, I digress.
Apple (AAPL) is down nearly 2% today for no other reason than a general market selloff. With the Nasdaq down 1.5% (40 points), the Apple tree is going to take a few hits from the bear ax. If it turns out that all this volatility is because the big boys on the street are selling their winners to cover the ineptitude of the sub-prime mortgage mess, I'll be very disappointed. Ha.
Not shocked, not even surprised. This is the market as it lives and breathes today. It's part of the reason why some people went into the real estate business. Especially in Hawaii, land is more than gold. It's certainly a limited commodity. But I digress. Damn this market is schizo!
On my recently updated A- pick list, seven stocks are down and three are up.
The three A- kings that are standing tall today are Garmin, Nintendo and Under Armor. Garmin is robust and hit $100 for the first time. Yes, I'm still in a house of pain because I passed on GRMN earlier in the week at $83 on the eve of earnings. So much for a pullback. GRMN is kicking tail as the rest of the market drowns in red. Nintendo (NTDOY.PK) is up fractionally in the $57 range. Current bid is $57.35. Tempting at this level since it pulled back from $65 on July 26. This is the first stock I've owned that is subject to an outside market. Completely. As a pink sheet here, it doesn't trade in extended hours. The stock simply, though it doesn't necessarily have to, trades as a mirror to "7974," which is its ticker on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. When extended hours ends in the U.S. — 8 p.m. Eastern — the TSE begins trading. Too bad there's no overlap.
The big gainer of the A- kings is Under Armor (UA), which roared to $68.24 before pulling back. UA is trading at $64.75, up 4.4%. The stock has a short interest of 50% and has been en fuego since blowing out earnings estimates this week.
The downers included Foster Wheeler (FWLT), which has given back more than 5% today and is trading at $111.42. Though FWLT announced a nice deal with Sinopec on Wednesday, the stock sold off more than 6% today. With earnings due out on Wednesday, FWLT looks like a discount buy here. Crocs (CROX), meanwhile, is down 2.4% to $58.88. The stock has seen dwindling volume in recent days and was due for a pullback after being up in four out of the last five sessions. CROX is trading at $58.97.
Ron Snyder, Crocs CEO, exercised options on more than 234,000 shares on Tuesday. He sold them at $59 to $60.10 each, which means he raked in nearly $14 million. His reward for another outstanding quarter. Those who think CEOs get paid too much will quibble. I suggest that they apply for his job and try to steer this juggernaut as well first.
I'm completely for restraint when it comes to outlandish salaries. I'm also for the kind of incentive-based pay that Snyder gets. You perform, you are rewarded. Happens in professional and college sports, as well, so the socialist line of thinking should apply there, as well. There's a reason why America continues to produce great companies, even in an economic slowdown, while more socialist-flavored, laid-back nations remain stagnant.
When's the last time France produced a great company anyway? But again, I digress.
Apple (AAPL) is down nearly 2% today for no other reason than a general market selloff. With the Nasdaq down 1.5% (40 points), the Apple tree is going to take a few hits from the bear ax. If it turns out that all this volatility is because the big boys on the street are selling their winners to cover the ineptitude of the sub-prime mortgage mess, I'll be very disappointed. Ha.
Thursday, August 2, 2007
Hat's off to the earnings elite
Sohu. Rhymes with tofu and dofu.
Stock of the No. 1 portal in China was just as mushy yesterday. Though the Co beat expectations, earnings were down for Q2. The market was lukewarm in response, which got me thinking about the companies that have beaten expectations and raised guidance
No, Sohu didn't raise guidance. That's a conversation that could happen by the end of this year since Sohu is supposedly the exclusive online presence in China for the 2008 Beijing Olympics.
But as for companies that have blown out expectations and raised guidance, this is a short list:
Crocs (CROX)
Garmin (GRMN)
Navteq (NVT)
Under Armor (UA)
Research in Motion (RIMM) beat earnings expectations, but didn't raise guidance. However, they were one of the few companies to announce a split (3-for-1).
On the eve of Q2 earnings:
CROX $50
GRMN $83
NVT $54
RIMM $165
UA $55
Today's PPS
CROX $59
GRMN $96
NVT $63
RIMM $217
UA $63
There was money to be made for buyers before earnings, but there's been significant pop for buyers after earnings, too. How can anyone dispute the pop in a stock that gets the most bullish guidance from its CEO?
That, basically, is the difference between the relative safety of a cash-making Co in the midst of stellar growth versus a small or micro cap that has yet to register any revenue. Two worlds, two different definitions of success.
Pupule Paul is long CROX and UA.
Stock of the No. 1 portal in China was just as mushy yesterday. Though the Co beat expectations, earnings were down for Q2. The market was lukewarm in response, which got me thinking about the companies that have beaten expectations and raised guidance
No, Sohu didn't raise guidance. That's a conversation that could happen by the end of this year since Sohu is supposedly the exclusive online presence in China for the 2008 Beijing Olympics.
But as for companies that have blown out expectations and raised guidance, this is a short list:
Crocs (CROX)
Garmin (GRMN)
Navteq (NVT)
Under Armor (UA)
Research in Motion (RIMM) beat earnings expectations, but didn't raise guidance. However, they were one of the few companies to announce a split (3-for-1).
On the eve of Q2 earnings:
CROX $50
GRMN $83
NVT $54
RIMM $165
UA $55
Today's PPS
CROX $59
GRMN $96
NVT $63
RIMM $217
UA $63
There was money to be made for buyers before earnings, but there's been significant pop for buyers after earnings, too. How can anyone dispute the pop in a stock that gets the most bullish guidance from its CEO?
That, basically, is the difference between the relative safety of a cash-making Co in the midst of stellar growth versus a small or micro cap that has yet to register any revenue. Two worlds, two different definitions of success.
Pupule Paul is long CROX and UA.
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
So why don't I get more BIDU?
There are a core of stocks that I've looked at, studied, even (ahem) almost worshipped over the past few months.
I'm not proud about it. I've spent more time looking at their assets than I have with human beings sometimes. One of them is Google. Another is Baidu. I could not recommend a more sound stock than Google. So the Co spent a ton of money to hire key people near and afar. They missed "expectations" by $.08. They don't even guide anyone regarding expectations, so I doubt they're overly concerned about near-term fluctuations in a stock that they'll never spli, a la Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway stock.
Baidu? The revenues still don't justify the market cap and stock, but that would be like quibbling over a young Babe Ruth and his growing weight problem. Can the guy pitch? Can he hit? Baidu is going to be a hall of famer one day, and it doesn't hurt to have your friendly neighborhood goverment backing you up.
Beyond those factors, nobody can really justify or deny a valuation of the stock. Well, there's Citigroup's Jason Breuschke, who downgraded BIDU at $197, then upgraded the stock at $215. He told TheStreet.com's Vishesh Kumar that China's warp-speed growth could eventually give Baidu a market cap of $35 to $45 billion. That's a share price of $1,500.
And yet, when I decided to enter the market and get some shares at the close today, Baidu and Google were shunned.
Early in the day, I kept my promise to self and got more Nintendo shares. The ones I should've got at $36, but instead got at $52 a few weeks ago, and at $62 today. It felt right. Maybe the timing will prove to be a mistake in this choppy, brutal market, but Nintendo is No. 1 on my list of best growth stocks. A buy based on due diligence never feels wrong.
After the bell, I also got more Apple on the dip, i.e. conspiracy trap, at $134. It wasn't the bottom of today's pullback, but I'm not complaining. Apple is my favorite Co in the world. Their PowerBook brought consistency and quality to an important part of my life when all other wanna-bes sucked royally. I don't even own an iPod or iPhone, but I know greatness when it is in front of me. Steve Jobs was made for Apple and vice-versa.
I also picked up a few shares of another company for my nephew. I've promised him that I'd buy stock for him on a monthly basis. This month, after studying the fundamentals, he wanted Under Armor. More than margins and revenues, he's sold on the quality of UA's products. I just regret that I didn't pay attention to the stock until the day after UA blew out earnings expectations. At $61, time will tell whether I got the shares at a real discount. UA raised guidance for the rest of the year, like CROX did last week, so I have reason to expect a win here.
Go figure. My nephew has stock in Nintendo and Under Armor. Pretty good for an 11-year-old.
Now only if his uncle can summon the will to get more BIDU and start a position in GOOG.
Pupule Paul is long BIDU, NTDOY.PK, AAPL and UA.
I'm not proud about it. I've spent more time looking at their assets than I have with human beings sometimes. One of them is Google. Another is Baidu. I could not recommend a more sound stock than Google. So the Co spent a ton of money to hire key people near and afar. They missed "expectations" by $.08. They don't even guide anyone regarding expectations, so I doubt they're overly concerned about near-term fluctuations in a stock that they'll never spli, a la Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway stock.
Baidu? The revenues still don't justify the market cap and stock, but that would be like quibbling over a young Babe Ruth and his growing weight problem. Can the guy pitch? Can he hit? Baidu is going to be a hall of famer one day, and it doesn't hurt to have your friendly neighborhood goverment backing you up. Beyond those factors, nobody can really justify or deny a valuation of the stock. Well, there's Citigroup's Jason Breuschke, who downgraded BIDU at $197, then upgraded the stock at $215. He told TheStreet.com's Vishesh Kumar that China's warp-speed growth could eventually give Baidu a market cap of $35 to $45 billion. That's a share price of $1,500.
And yet, when I decided to enter the market and get some shares at the close today, Baidu and Google were shunned. Early in the day, I kept my promise to self and got more Nintendo shares. The ones I should've got at $36, but instead got at $52 a few weeks ago, and at $62 today. It felt right. Maybe the timing will prove to be a mistake in this choppy, brutal market, but Nintendo is No. 1 on my list of best growth stocks. A buy based on due diligence never feels wrong.
After the bell, I also got more Apple on the dip, i.e. conspiracy trap, at $134. It wasn't the bottom of today's pullback, but I'm not complaining. Apple is my favorite Co in the world. Their PowerBook brought consistency and quality to an important part of my life when all other wanna-bes sucked royally. I don't even own an iPod or iPhone, but I know greatness when it is in front of me. Steve Jobs was made for Apple and vice-versa.
I also picked up a few shares of another company for my nephew. I've promised him that I'd buy stock for him on a monthly basis. This month, after studying the fundamentals, he wanted Under Armor. More than margins and revenues, he's sold on the quality of UA's products. I just regret that I didn't pay attention to the stock until the day after UA blew out earnings expectations. At $61, time will tell whether I got the shares at a real discount. UA raised guidance for the rest of the year, like CROX did last week, so I have reason to expect a win here. Go figure. My nephew has stock in Nintendo and Under Armor. Pretty good for an 11-year-old.
Now only if his uncle can summon the will to get more BIDU and start a position in GOOG.
Pupule Paul is long BIDU, NTDOY.PK, AAPL and UA.
Bargain hunting can be dangerous
A bargain hunter's paradise? Perhaps.
While most investors are staying out of the water (and I still wish ABC hadn't cancelled Invasion), I can't help but scroll through my favorite stocks at discounted prices.
• AAPL. What gives? A dumbass rumor sent this down to $131. It's still a steal in after-hours at $132.86. I know there is an issue with the iPhone's security flaw. But this is my favorite Co in so many ways beyond my devotion to this aging PowerBook. Apple will fix the problem as long as Steve Jobs is cracking the whip.
• BIDU. This got knocked down to $199 before closing at $201.98. Stellar earnings and supreme confidence by CEO Robin Li. Oh, and they have the backing of the world's toughest gang, the Chinese government. You say protectionism, I say Big Bubba got their back.
• RIMM. I'm not a fan of the Blackberry. Never touched one. But the fundamentals and growth (hello China) are astounding. RIMM shares peeled back 2.7% to $214. Bargain? Maybe.
• GOOG. Down just 1% to $510. As much as I love the Co, I just don't look to GOOG for my buys. I probably should. These guys won't split the stock, won't give guidance to analysts ... they do things right.
• CEO. Yup, I am still high on CNOOC Ltd. It pulled back a couple of bucks to $118.60 by the close. Still trading at just 11 times earnings. CEO was a steal before this correction.
• GRMN. Losing 1.3% today doesn't make Garmin a big discounted stock at $83.90. But earnings are out tomorrow, and sales are healthy. With GPS showing up in and on almost everything these days, $83 could well be a discounted price. I just wonder if slowing auto sales will have an impact right away.
• UA. Under Armor blew out earnings expectations, raised guidance and zoomed up 17% to $64.75 today. Then came the broad market selloff, along with profit-takers. At $61.41, UA is still 12% up from yesterday's close. But short interest is 50%. FIFTY PERCENT. Very compelling here. I should get some shares for my nephew sometime soon.
Maybe it's too early to wade back in. Maybe buyers will get caught in the tide. The companies that have destroyed bears with an arsenal of great earnings are lovable. More lovable when they raise guidance. Those would include UA and CROX.
Pupule Paul is long AAPL and BIDU.
While most investors are staying out of the water (and I still wish ABC hadn't cancelled Invasion), I can't help but scroll through my favorite stocks at discounted prices.
• AAPL. What gives? A dumbass rumor sent this down to $131. It's still a steal in after-hours at $132.86. I know there is an issue with the iPhone's security flaw. But this is my favorite Co in so many ways beyond my devotion to this aging PowerBook. Apple will fix the problem as long as Steve Jobs is cracking the whip.
• BIDU. This got knocked down to $199 before closing at $201.98. Stellar earnings and supreme confidence by CEO Robin Li. Oh, and they have the backing of the world's toughest gang, the Chinese government. You say protectionism, I say Big Bubba got their back.
• RIMM. I'm not a fan of the Blackberry. Never touched one. But the fundamentals and growth (hello China) are astounding. RIMM shares peeled back 2.7% to $214. Bargain? Maybe.
• GOOG. Down just 1% to $510. As much as I love the Co, I just don't look to GOOG for my buys. I probably should. These guys won't split the stock, won't give guidance to analysts ... they do things right.
• CEO. Yup, I am still high on CNOOC Ltd. It pulled back a couple of bucks to $118.60 by the close. Still trading at just 11 times earnings. CEO was a steal before this correction.
• GRMN. Losing 1.3% today doesn't make Garmin a big discounted stock at $83.90. But earnings are out tomorrow, and sales are healthy. With GPS showing up in and on almost everything these days, $83 could well be a discounted price. I just wonder if slowing auto sales will have an impact right away.
• UA. Under Armor blew out earnings expectations, raised guidance and zoomed up 17% to $64.75 today. Then came the broad market selloff, along with profit-takers. At $61.41, UA is still 12% up from yesterday's close. But short interest is 50%. FIFTY PERCENT. Very compelling here. I should get some shares for my nephew sometime soon.
Maybe it's too early to wade back in. Maybe buyers will get caught in the tide. The companies that have destroyed bears with an arsenal of great earnings are lovable. More lovable when they raise guidance. Those would include UA and CROX.
Pupule Paul is long AAPL and BIDU.
No chink in this Armor
There's no chink in Under Armor no matter every bear's attempt to maul the stock.
UA announced its earnings report this morning and investors responded by sending the stock from $55.18 to a pre-market high of $66. The Co also raised 2007 guidance. Here's the summary from Briefing.com:
7:16AM Under Armour beats by $0.08, beats on revs; raises Y07 outlook (UA) 55.18 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.11 per share, $0.08 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.03; revenues rose 50.6% year/year to $120.5 mln vs the $105.5 mln consensus. Gross margin for the quarter increased to 49.0% compared to 47.8% in the prior year due to a combination of factors including the previously disclosed shift of certain customer incentives to selling, general and administrative expenses, which were recorded as discounts in the prior year. Co raised guidance for FY07, sees FY07 revs of $580-590 mln vs. $583.30 mln consensus (previous guidance was $560-580 mln); sees annual income from operations in the range of $79-81 mln, previously expected $74.5-77.5 mln.
Shortsqueeze.com lists UA's short interest at a whopping 50%, which means the pain may not be over just yet for shorts.
Funny, or not so funny — UA is one of the stocks that my nephew expressed an interest in having. Of all the stocks that I've monitored for him recently, UA had slipped off my radar. I didn't get wind of UA's earnings date until yesterday. Though the stock has pulled back to $63.50, it'll take some inside-voice debating for me to chase it on my nephew's behalf. The stock is 15% up from yesterday's close.
He wears the product and believes strongly in the Co's fundamentals. It's a good problem, or challenge, for the day.
Pupule Paul has no position in UA.
UA announced its earnings report this morning and investors responded by sending the stock from $55.18 to a pre-market high of $66. The Co also raised 2007 guidance. Here's the summary from Briefing.com:
7:16AM Under Armour beats by $0.08, beats on revs; raises Y07 outlook (UA) 55.18 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.11 per share, $0.08 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.03; revenues rose 50.6% year/year to $120.5 mln vs the $105.5 mln consensus. Gross margin for the quarter increased to 49.0% compared to 47.8% in the prior year due to a combination of factors including the previously disclosed shift of certain customer incentives to selling, general and administrative expenses, which were recorded as discounts in the prior year. Co raised guidance for FY07, sees FY07 revs of $580-590 mln vs. $583.30 mln consensus (previous guidance was $560-580 mln); sees annual income from operations in the range of $79-81 mln, previously expected $74.5-77.5 mln.Shortsqueeze.com lists UA's short interest at a whopping 50%, which means the pain may not be over just yet for shorts.
Funny, or not so funny — UA is one of the stocks that my nephew expressed an interest in having. Of all the stocks that I've monitored for him recently, UA had slipped off my radar. I didn't get wind of UA's earnings date until yesterday. Though the stock has pulled back to $63.50, it'll take some inside-voice debating for me to chase it on my nephew's behalf. The stock is 15% up from yesterday's close.
He wears the product and believes strongly in the Co's fundamentals. It's a good problem, or challenge, for the day.
Pupule Paul has no position in UA.
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