Wacked Wednesday? (updated)

3:46 am (Hawaii) Didn't like my trades yesterday. Liked the market whiplash even less. Aimless but I got myself stuck in that merciless washing machine. This time, the market shows direction (down) and I'm back in with FAZ (at 26.78) and TVIX (at 8.48). The TVIX position is quite small this time, meaning I can withstand a 2% or 3% drop. Stop losses, as always, are in place.

Why the drop in indices today (1% to 1.3%)? China says no stimulus, serious stimulus is coming. Is this really news? No. But volume is in this negative market today.

Update 3:56 am A wtf moment indeed. FAZ dipped to 26.69 and stopped me out. But TVIX went even more dippy down to 8.45 and stopped me out. It touched 8.45 for a few seconds and ran back up to 8.55. In other words, they played me and my stop loss orders. I'm at a net loss (very small) but it sucks that I was up (small) for the past 25 minutes or so and got suckered. Yeah. Note to self, no stop losses on TVIX from now on.

Update 11:08 am Woke up about 25 minutes ago to see the Dow closed -160. Indices were off by 1 to 1.4%. But the move in financials, FAZ, TVIX are major. My entire Debt Spiral list is red with big losses today. FAZ fell to 26.99, then ran into the close and is at 27.55 after hours. In other words, I would've had a winning trade if I'd stayed in. (I wouldn't have held all the way down below 27, but I could've started a new position in that area.)

TVIX, which I bought early today at 8.48, dipped to 8.32 by 2 pm Eastern time before running hard. TVIX was at 9.10 after hours and is now at 8.94. I traded in and out of FAZ and TVIX with zero success today. Time to change strategy. I had the right picks, but the wrong timing.

It's unpredictable even though so many bloggers and analysts claim it is not. Sure there's a bounce ahead, but when? Nobody really knows anything except that when it bounces, it will be big. Until then, the dollar keeps rising, the euro keeps dropping (below 1.24) and my timing needs to be better.

Oddly enough, AAPL ran to 579.99 before cutting back to 578.10 after hours, up 1% for the day. @TraderFlorida, as usual, is dead on about AAPL's bounce. His call was bullish if AAPL gets above 576 on big volume. Today's volume, 13.4M shares, is a bit more than Monday and Tuesday levels, but not close to last week's numbers (22M+).

AAPL up, Apple plays down

FAS vs FAZ

12:36 pm (Hawaii) Getting a lot of work done early in the day now that I'm not obsessing over a schizoid market. Yesterday, Italy's chief announced he would step down under conditional terms and the market zoomed. Today, Italy bonds get out of control (again) and the Dow loses 389 points (3.2%). The action was not gray area at all. AAPL sank 2.7% to 395. Financials were fugly.

BAC -5.2% to 6.19, WFC -5.4%, AIG -6.3%, IRE -6.5%, NBG -6.8%, JPM -7.2%, UBS -7.7%, C -8%, STD -8.2%, GS 8.2%, BBVA -8.3%, MS -8.7%, HBC -9.1%, ETFC -9.4%, JEF -10.4%, RBS -11.1%, DB -11.2%.

FAS shrank 14.8%. FAZ went from 39 yesterday to 43+ today with very little selloff into the close. In fact, after I got up, it dropped below 43 to the mid-42s, then ran up above 43.50. On big volume. If you're like me, you know AAPL leads the retail market, and AAPL's selloff today on large volume with that hanging man candle looks simply horrible.

Technicals do not tell us what's going to happen, and they are the mercy of headline risk. But they do provide a visual into the global monetary chaos, and what a friggin mess.

Below, some charts and that includes TVIX, which was up 37% freaking percent! I remain in the bleachers sipping a hot cocoa, cash under the mattress.

FAZ daily

No matter how much weight the banksters have behind their

punch, they can't find resolution to the toxic assets near and far.

FAZ daily

Major move today on heavy volume but I suspect this stays in a 

range between 36 and 44. A break above 44 would tempt.

FAS daily

The breakout momentum was doused today but volume

was not totally indicative of a definite avalanche.

FAS daily

Big move post-pennant? I should've said moves, as in plural!

DGP daily

Down 1.7% today, which makes no sense considering the

mega-printing of fiat that is due globally. Soon.

AAPL daily

One hell of an ugly candle.  

AAPL daily

The move lower was on significant volume.

UUP daily

Mad US dollar!

TVIX daily

37% in one day? This closed at 46.04 yesterday.

TVIX daily

The Italian-German-French-Greek soap opera continues in 

As The Euro Central Bank Turns. Tomorrow's episode: 

Happy bedroom talk resumes and TVIX loses half of

today's enormous gain. 

In and Out

10:03 am (Hawaii) Dow -391 (-3.5%) to 1,733, Nas -82.52 (-3.3%) to 2,455, S&P 500 down 37.17 (-3.2%) to 1,129. The move lower has been extreme, even with the late rally. I got out of my modest position in FAZ at 71.14 for a profit of roughly $6/share. Didn't sell above 74, 73 or 72. FAZ was hovering at 72 until the last few minutes of the session, but the selling pressure has been quite dramatic in the final two hours. No question there will be more buyers of FAZ for a long time to come. But near term, I was fortunate to catch the tail end of this big run. After gaining 14% yesterday, another 9% today (when I sold), it is likely time for a bounce in the market, especially the financials. Everything (except the US dollar) is so severely oversold.

I won't play against that kind of rubber-band snapback potential right now. But I will scale back into FAZ, hopefully at the right time in the next session or two (or three). I really would like to hold a position for weeks and months as the banksters tumble, but positioning is key in this kind of volatility. FAZ couldn't stay above 73 (near-term high) so I'll wait for a nicer entry point.

As for everything else, they all sucked. FAZ was my lone bastion of comfort. I'm not interested in trading TVIX or VXX these days. Maybe I should be. AGQ (165) and DGP (61.13) are above their lows of the day.

The Apple effect is golden

Does someone here want an iPad?

7:35 am (Hawaii) You can probably remember the sight of AAPL going up dramatically - from 80 to 200 in one year, for example - only to sell off drastically. You made a great realized or paper profit, wondering what was the justification for a selloff. Sometimes, it was about profit-taking. Sometimes, it was about hedge funds on the verge of collapse, having to raise case (from profitable trade) immediately.

I think gold (down 2.1% to 1,776/oz) and silver (down 4.1% to 39.15) are selling off in this down session for that reason. The hedgies are desperate to raise cash, and they realize they can always go back into gold, particularly, at another time. I woke up a few minutes ago to find the Dow Jones down 255 points. Not a shock since futures were down more than 100 points when I hit the sack last night.

What is a surprise is that AAPL is at 408 after hitting an all-time high of 411. The only news I found in a brief search is that 1 in 6 Americans are now using an electronic reading device. I suppose that's bullish for AAPL and AMZN. But trading in this cut-throat environment means there will eventually - later today? - be immense profit-taking in those two. Last one out, rotten egg.

My Regular watch list is 20% green. TVIX, EDZ, FAZ (+8.7%), ZSL, TZA, VXX ... it looks like 2008 or '09. CMG, GMCR, TLT, AAPL and LULU are also up more than 2%. SBUX is 1.9% up.

My Metals watch list is basically the same, 21% green. FAZ, ZSL, SCO, are the few leaders. ZSL is up 6.6% and DZZ is up 1.8%. Silver continues to be shorted by the banksters, probably the same banksters who claim to be long gold. They are stuck with these immense short positions (JPM), so what else would they do?

I might actually turn on the TV this morning, but they were chattering about Greek default and yadayada yesterday. It's probably more of the same Euro debt crisis/contagion fear. US Dollar up 1.5% to 77.78 and Euro is down 1.1% to 1.36. The FOMC meets on the 21st (Wednesday). I do not want to be extended in any way until after that meeting. Staying all cash for now.

There goes AAPL, back up to 409.90.

Photo: MKT 300 Rodgers

Efficiency vs Frequency

11:00 am Lame. I entered FAZ at 69.35 and stopped myself out at 68.40. It's at 69.38 after hours. I've had some profitable trades in FAZ, but more and more, I just end up clipping myself out with break-evens or small losses. Today was a series of silly attempts to chase FAZ even though I had a specific price level (67.50) in mind. I was unwilling to buy AGQ below 229 and add DGP below 69. AGQ is now 242.52 and DGP is 69.22, both holding most of their gains and then some. So why chase FAZ? That's something I need to just avoid, period, by sticking to price points. It's the simplest, most efficient way for me. Technicals and trend lines are all great, but when I have stuck by targets, I've done far better overall by staying out rather than chasing.

What threw me off, in hindsight, was seeing FAZ drop all the way to 63.00. Had my doubts — emotion — after that even as it rose back to 67 and 68. Instead of a discounted price, I paid higher, logic losing out to emotion.

Long term, I'd be better served, in all probability, by not trying to trade in and out of these vehicles intraday. Example: The Fed could unveil some new form of QE on Sunday night and spark a bull run. FAZ could tank back to 55, even 45. But as we saw recently, every dead cat bounce is sold off. FAZ would eventually return to 70 and then 80, and then 100.

It might be time for me to adjust time frames and shoot for longer swings rather than quick putts. Or just limit quick momo trades to days when there is a major catalyst, like Euro bank destruction.

Adjusted game plan

I. Longer-term holds: physical PMs.

II. Short-term holds: gold and/or silver ETFs.

III. Quick trades: FAZ (on debt crisis headlines), FAS (if and when QE3 is announced), TVIX (on major riot headlines).

I've been 50% to 100% cash for most of this year.

I probably won't bother with FAS and TVIX since I'm asleep through a good portion of the session on most days.

As for today, it was good to be disciplined when the vehicles on my radar gapped up. Not good to avoid them as they dipped. I'm going to examine why I sometimes refuse to buy low and sometimes prefer to buy HIGH.

Phil Town is a master of that. He entered AAPL back in 2009 at 80 or so, precisely calling a bottom in what had been a devastating correction. AAPL has pulled back during the current pullback from 400+ to 356, but I'd say Town has done fairly well.

The only things I can see making a run similar to that are physical gold, physical silver, DGP, AGQ. Maybe FAZ. The AGQ/spot silver relationship is still on my mind. When silver went from 40 to 49+, AGQ went from 220 to 382. That's a 74% gain in AGQ and roughly 25% in spot silver.

Today, silver gained roughly 5.2%. AGQ is up 10.3%. There's reason to believe AGQ is worth trading to net more dollars and buy more physical — much more — even with spot price eventually at 50.

So that's FAZ which I am convinced will hit 100 (while bouncing all over like a pinball). There's AGQ which I have to say will bust through 300 and possibly 400 because spot silver at 50 is a high probability.

Of course, there's DGP. This is proof that ignorance can be costly. Just a year or two ago, I had no clue about real money, sound money, historical money. I viewed gold as a rich man's hoard, something heiresses and gold-digging hotties cared about. Something only a richass rapper could afford. Turns out they were all wiser than me. The instinctive attraction to gold is almost embedded in our DNA. It is internationally understood. Wave some bars of gold around wherever you are in the world, and 99.9% of people won't need to understand a word you say.

It'll be weird one day to see gold out of favor again, when the 30-year cycle turns over, as Mike Maloney points out in his book. If enough gold and silver can transform into farmland and a home, and provide ample resources completely independent of the grid, it's all anyone can ask for.

Not quite minus squared

9:37 am (Hawaii) Market is down (Dow -99.83/-0.8%, Nas -31.77/-1.2%, S&P -13.09/-1.0%), but it's not convincing of an onrushing disaster, either. Dollar is up 6/10th of a percentage point, crude oil down again (SCO up 1%). The Metals list is 27% green, 73% red with a majority on the plus side being bear plays. But the key is low volume up and down. Maybe it's a respite of sorts and Monday begins a bloodbath. Or maybe this market will remain choppy, indignant and petulant.

ZSL is up 5.3% to 19.46. DUST, QID, gold bears GLL and DZZ are among the leaders on the list. REE, MCP and AVL have kept rare earths near the top.

Meanwhile, the finnies faded. Three were in the green in the opening minutes today, but now all are in the red. NBG, which got up to 1.43 yesterday on the positive news of austerity psuedo-measures, is down 7% to 1.32. Pulling back is no surprise, but I thought there might be continued momentum after profit-taking. It's tough to make it when you're a bankster.

Silver plays are getting minced again, not a shock. AGQ down 5.4% to 161.54, EXK (-5.2%), SLW (-4.3%), PAAS (-3%), GPL (-4.5%), SVM (-5.1%) are among the bruised silver miners. XG (-2%), NUGT (-5.3%), GG (-3.7%), GDXJ (-3.1%), DGP (-3%) are among the gold plays getting stomped. DGP's descent is unusual; it's normally not a big mover up or down. It's my lone play, a small position, and Spot Gold has room to fall, maybe to 1450. Not fun, but the puppet masters will do what they deem necessary to justify implementation of the next bailout/quantitative easing/big lie.

My Regular watch list is 26% green, 74% red. AAPL is down 1.6% to 325.95. TVIX (+7.5%) and VXX (+3.7%) are up big, as is QID (+3.5%). No buyers, and it seems some hedge funds have emptied out. It's nice to rest easy on summer vacation.

It gets interesting on the Regular list. CMG (+1.1%), RLOC (+0.8%), CSTR (+0.3%) are up. Then it's red, red, red, red ...

Smelled good

3:13 am (Hawaii) Just before Trichet spoke, FAZ bumped up to 50.46 premarket. Then he said, indirectly, that interest rates are going up this summer in Euro land. Exactly when, he won't say. Bullish, just a bit, for financials. Bad for FAZ. I got out of that trade. The idea wasn't bad, but the timing was horrible. Buying at a top (yesterday) is never good, even when it turns profitable. that just sets up the next top buy, and inevitably, buying at the top often enough leads to destruction. I lost $315 on that trade, a small number percentage-wise (well below 1%) of my modest roll. But I had to get out. There is no catalyst to get FAZ moving in premarket, and none once the bell — and the hyperspeed deep-galaxy alien machines — start humming.

FAZ can edge higher from here. I considered a partial sell. But the added risk on the downside wasn't worth it. Just not enough buying pressure yet, so it could easily fall below 50 or 45.50. Live to fight another day.

Update 3:22 am (Hawaii) 56% of my Regular watch list is green, 31% red. Spot Silver inching higher. Spot Gold in range. In a rut. CSTR is up 4% on news that it is opening more than 1,000 kiosks in Safeway stores. MWW (+3.3%), MOS (+2.3%), LULU (+2%) all up. TVIX (-3.3%), ONW (-2.3%) and ZSL (-1.7%).

Metals list is 56% green, 23% red. TRE (+2.5%), EXK (+2.1%), XG (+1.8%), AGQ (+1.7%), GPL (+1.6%) all benefitting from an overdue bounce in silver plays. How long will this last? Almost all silver plays are green.

ZSL (-1.6%), DBB (-1.3%), COPX (-1.1%), JJC (-1.1%) are at the bottom.

Update 3:44 am (Hawaii) FAZ just did a major melt up and mini crash. Went from 50.02 to 50.75 just seven minutes after the opening bell. Then fell to 50.30 in the next few minutes. Wild. Probably purely mechanical, but I wonder how much of it was raised to clear out positions for big money that bought in late yesterday near the top. Now at 50.36. Without any expected news for financials, it'll hover here.

Might be time for me to hit the sack again. That was a hell of a feeling to see it go back to my entry point. I could've broke even, in theory. Moving on...

Update 3:57 am (Hawaii) The fall for FAZ is fugly, from 50.75 to 49.58. Waterfall. Dead cat bounce for the finnies: WFC (+1.7%), C (+1.3%), GS (+1.2%) BAC (+1%), JPM (+1%). NBG (+2.3%) up, too. The only one on my list of banks in the red is IRE (-3.1%).

Dual duplicity

7:08 am (Hawaii) Just got up from a good night's rest. Such a flat market. My recently-made Metals Watch List is only 15% green, lowest level ever, with only bear ETFs green with one exception: XG (Extorre Gold). XG is up 6.9%. That's it. Spot Silver is below 40 as of the past hour. Spot Gold plunged to 1509.

The chameleon traders who rode Spot Silver up and are riding it down are banking big buccos. ZSL, the double silver bear ETF, is up 11.7% today. That's on top of the 30% gain already this week. Traders are making more money more quickly on ZSL than they did on Spot Silver. There's no way I would've leaned toward a position in ZSL yesterday when it was at 17.50. But there seems to be no apparent reason for anyone to buy silver, even at this level, and the lack of buyers is killing the price.

Nimble traders riding momentum. You can understand fundamentals to the fullest, but knowing where the big money is going matters most. ZSL was at 14 on Monday. Can it climb more today and tomorrow? Certainly. But again, as selling a decliner early or not at all is sometimes best, buying a rocket launcher like ZSL early rather than at the near-term top is preferable. After gaining 40% in 3 1/2 days, this is thin ice territory.

As for Spot Silver, 37.50 looks like a reasonable support level, a 50% retrace of the recent run to 49+. Great for physical silver buyers and swing traders on the bullish side. Painful for traders on the buy-and-hold side. AGQ, the double bull silver ETF, was at 370 or 380 last week. I got out with a $4/share loss. Now it's at 235.61, close to its low of 231.10. My regular watch list is only 20% green. The only stock worse off today is OPEN, down 14.3%.

Up today: GMCR (77.20 +20.6%), VCLK (18.48 +12.3%), HAIN (35.12 (+5.5%), TVIX (25.94 +5.3%), EDZ (18.07 +4.7%), TZA (35.89 +4.3%).

Game plan remains simple: 100% cash.

Update 7:39 am (Hawaii) It's always interesting to see bloggers with strong convictions get more balanced with changing climates. SGS (SilverGoldSilver.com) is one of my favorite blogs. I disagree with some things there, but generally, I appreciate the candor and intensity of his convictions. He realized that buying puts would help protect his assets, but his critics are flaming him. I've never used puts, but I understand the practicality and profitability of protection. It's insurance in a bloody market.

It's no far-fetched guess that if all of us had known Spot Silver would crash like this, most of us would've protected our positions by getting some ZSL. I got out with SLV at 46.75 and AGQ at 369.44. That was that. But if I'd opened just a tiny position in ZSL — it was at 13 last week — it would've been a good momentum read. I'm just not that astute.

Update 7:53 am (Hawaii) The news on Extorre Gold Mines (XG) last week was about "high grade to bonanza grade gold-silver results from the first 3 of 21 diamond drill holes completed to date on a discovery named Zoe at Cerro Moro, Santa Cruz Province, Argentina." Now XG says it's up to 10 drill holes that are showing this level of gold and silver. The Zoe spot is familiar for anyone who watched the company's video recently. I like the way they market their stuff. The co-chairman seems quite transparent. But I didn't believe enough to invest even a tiny position.

ZG closed at 9.03 yesterday. Now at 9.64, off the HOD of 9.91. XG has pulled back 31% on its gain today, which is approaching a level I like. I am NOT a gold bug, never bought a miner stock before. But this video from last week is entertaining enough, especially on a rotten day for precious metals.



Update 8:14 am (Hawaii) Other gold miners with positive news today are Continental Gold (CNL) and Kirkland Lake Gold (KGI). See the story here.

Also, PAAS is one of the rare silver plays that is positive today, up 1.6% to 34.37. A report says PAAS has "provided an update on the situation in Boliva and San Vicente."

Update 8:43 am (Hawaii) Spot Silver is rebounding a bit. EXK has risen steadily and is now back above 10. PAAS continues its comeback and is at 34.50.

Some thoughts on the smaller gold and silver miners. NGD has floundered lately, but is one of the gold miners that really pops when momo is on its side. Currently down 1.8%to 10.01. No news lately.

Extorre is a spin-off from Exeter. Yale Simpson, a co-chairman at Extorre Gold Mines, is executive chairman of Exeter, which is trading just above $3/share. Exeter's focus is in Chile; Extorre is in Argentina. The company logos are virtually twins. Here's a video of Simpson talking about Exeter's projections last November.

As the host of the video (done by Even Keel Media) indicated at the end of another video, Extorre is a sponsor of the program and the program is an investor in the company. Good transparency, but I'm more impressed by their marketing/PR efforts than anything. I don't know jack about mining.

Spot Gold was below 1510, but is now at 1517. Spot Silver is off its low, now 39.75.

Update 9:25 am (Hawaii) This video is a couple of weeks old, Max Keiser with Brad Cooke, CEO of Endeavour Silver. 

Part 1

Part 2

2010 Financials

This is pretty funny.

Update 10:37 am (Hawaii) This guy figured out how to cast his own silver ingot out of scrap silver and a tiny bit of .999 silver. He created a .925 sterling silver bar. Looks like a lot of work, but he probably had fun doing it. If the world ever goes to shit, this guy's skills will be invaluable. 

Dressing up

12 pm (Hawaii) So is this it? Has the end-of-month/end-of-quarter window dressing begun? When I hit the sack around 5 or 6 am Hawaii time (noonish Eastern), it seemed the market was going to drift in small currents forever. Of course, nothing stays the same in the market for long. The market went bozo bullish as I slept, sending 75% of my watch list to the green side after being inept earlier.

DJIA 12,279 (+0.67%), Nasdaq 2,756 (+0.96%), S&P 500 1,319 (+0.71%). Again, volume wasn't impressive, but it was about 20% higher in the "axis" of stocks, AAPL. Monday was a low in volume for the year. Tuesday saw more action. Wednesday is the 30th of March and Thursday is the end of the month. I'd say odds are 70% that window dressing has begun. By that math, the edge is 40% (70 vs. 30), but am I willing to indulge myself with 40% of my roll in play? Or to be risk-addicted about it, place some bets that allow for 40% swing down? Yes to the former and no the latter. We're still somewhat toppy here and the chances of a) a selloff after window dressing and b) negative news about QE3 would easily send the market down the mountain like a wild eagle pushing goats off the ledge.

For now, however, just about everything finished green today, and big on the win side. WNR gained 1.9% to 17.10 after being in red early. Le Fly wins again on his call for oil refiners to slice through any market turmoil. He's right.

AAPL, which sold off to a hair above 346 early, is at 351.30 in afterhours trading. My position in AAPL at the end of last week was opened at 346.75 and I sold at 350.65, which clearly is a range within the larger range (326 to 365). There are too many AAPL bulls who want this stock to lift, for the PE to hit 25 or 27 or 30, and that would be fair. But with the slowdown due to Japan's tragedy, I really don't see any eye-popping sales numbers in the near term. Demand huge, but customers will have to wait. AAPL will be fine long term, but it just won't hit 400 as soon as I or anyone else had expected.

This is not a bad thing. I could buy at 345 (mid-point of the larger range) and sell at 350 over and over again without extreme concern over risk. I didn't do it today, but it's there. What other stock are you going to ride as comfortably? CHGS? LULU?

CHGS 3.54 (+20.4%), MCP 60.10 (+8.3%), CLNE 15.20 (+4.8%), LULU 89.37 (4.8%), CMG 268.00 (+3.9%), RLOC 20.55 (+3.2%), VLO 30.50 (+3.2%), AMZN 174.62 (+3.1%), EXK 9.28 (+3.1%), YZC 34.50 (+2.9%). It goes on and on. Huge gains for momo stocks. Silver plays. Even coal (YZC). China is in heat. US stocks hot, and that's with crude oil up. UCO is at 54.78 (+1.7%).

It almost didn't matter what people bought today. The bull gored every bear in sight. Big losers on my watch list were TVIX 37.49 (-5.5%), EDZ 19.12 (-3.3%), DG 30.52 (-3.1%), TZA 36.84 (-3%), VXX 29.95 (2.7%), QID 51.65 (-1.9%). Also OPEN 102.90 (-1.3%). OPEN's huge run had to stop for a breather at some point.

I wouldn't be shocked if the market reverses before tomorrow's opening bell. There's still time for hedgies to take it down fast and still re-enter before the end of the month. Unlikely, but entirely possible. I'll be waiting for a unlikely discount on my favorite plays with 100% loaded gunpowder.

Monday bull party

(11:30 am, Hawaii) Talk about complete melt-up. At one point, when I wasn't sleeping through the session, my watch list was 83% green. That's basically bullish to the extreme since the other 17% are mostly bear plays.

DJIA +1.5%, Nasdaq +1.8%, S&P 500 +1.5%.

Volume wasn't great in AAPL (14.7M), but the 2.7% run from 330.67 (Friday) to 339.73 (afterhours today) is incredible. The 100-day moving average was tested three days in a row (Wed/Thur/Fri) before bouncing today. Will the 50-day MA (346+) prove to be a ceiling?

Everything with a pulse move up, from BIDU (+3%) and GOOG (+2.6%) to Japan (EWJ (+2.2%). The yen softened; FXY slightly down (-0.4%).

LVS gained 6.4%, while other recent gainers like OPEN (+2.4%) and HAIN (+2.5%) rose.

Precious metals roared. SLW gained 5.9% to 42.25 (afterhours). EXK +5.1% to 9.62, PAAS +3.6%, PHY +2.4%, SLV +3.2%. NGD +3.4% and GLD +0.7%. Great day for the metal bugs. SLW and EXK ranked second and third on my list of gainers.

WNR, Le Fly's favorite oil refiner play, gained 4.4% to 21.59. UCO gained 1.1% (53.33).

Big losers were TVIX (-15.4%, 44.85), VXX (-7.5%, 32.70), TZA (-7.1%), EDZ (-5.1%) and QID (-3.6%). PSUN also sold off again, down 1.9% to 3.62. C also fell 1.6% to 4.43. Interestingly, X dropped 0.6%.

I'm content to stay in cash here until the puzzle is solved. Which is probably never going to happen. AAPL is my vehicle of preference, and if the runway clears for a flight to new highs, I'll get a ticket. Until then, this is a range-bound titan, from 326 to 360, and there is money to be made in that space. Hat's off to those who bought at 330 on Friday.

Bloomberg: Tokyo Electric says Fukushima fuel rods damaged, leak to sea (Mar 21 2011)
Reuters: Oil lifted by Mideast unrest, Libya conflict (Mar 21 2011)
Bloomberg: Japan futures, nuclear stocks advance as reactor crisis eases (Mar 21 2011)
Business Times: AT&T's big deal lifts Wall St (Mar 21 2011)
AP: Developments in Japan's disasters, nuclear crisis (Mar 21 2011)
Business Insider: What about the Plutonium MOX? (Mar 21 2011)
The Guardian: Google accuses China of interfering with Gmail system (Mar 21 2011)

Mapping it out

1:57 pm (Hawaii). AAPL trading at 334.20 as afterhours trading winds up. That's more than a 50% retrace from today's high since yesterday's close. A number of charts look interesting. Examining the candlesticks is a healthy way to view the market and sectors, eliminating whatever emotion or bias that may exist.

AAPL reaching toward 50-day MA (rope of hope)

after dipping to the 100-day MA

Selling pressure in AAPL the past two days

Since the initial dip, EWJ has hovered around 10

The Fukushima disaster had EWJ at support;

another setback could test 8 or lower

Yen is king for now

FXY at historic highs

FXY 10 day

CRR benefits from Middle East chaos

CRR benefits from Japan's nuclear energy shutdown

but talk about wild swings to the upside

UCO's wild roller coaster ride

Few have told a market top tale like LULU

NFLX, another overbought stock

The upgrade this week saved its ass

Since doubling in less than 6 months, 

SLW has been range-bound

TVIX is live dynamite in your hands

Last to hold gets kablooeyed

Food inflation is bad for peasants (me) but

good for MOS, which is at support

MOS 5 day is a daytrader's fun toy

Burn rubbuh

(Art: Jasper Goodall)

12:15 pm (Hawaii). UCO fell off a cliff for several sessions before gapping today with crude oil's rally. On the daily, UCO has traded technically (stochastics) for the past month. Today's MACD is inconclusive, however, and volume was small. At 53, it is mired in a range (47-57) that makes a buy here edgeless. Violence in the Middle East is practically priced into the market. Obama isn't about to make a grand decision while in Rio. Maybe a grand gesture, but the White House has been loathe to assume USA-as-world-police status.

So, the 7.1% move in UCO was great for yesterday's buyers. I'll keep watch from the rafters.

66% of my watch list is in the green afterhours. CRR, another oil-related play, is up 6.5%. ENY, a Canadian oil play, is up 3.7%. VLO +2.3%. Even OIH is up 3.4%. WNR (refiner) is plus 1.5%.

With food prices soaring, Ag is another play. MOS is up 2%.

Metals? FCX bounced 4.2%. NGD is up 3.8%. SLW is +1.7% to 39.09. EXK +1.3% to 8.42. X is +1.6%.

Most of the market gains, however, slipped away in the afternoon. Still a positive day for DJIA (+161, +1.4%), Nasdaq (+19, +0.7%) and S&P 500 (+16, +1.3%). Not convinced just yet, though. If Japan continues to make progress on the Fukushima nuclear reactors, screens will remain green. But it smells like a dead cat, and it is obvious that many traders get out before the closing bell. It's a nibbler's market.

Bombing out today were TVIX (55.97, -7%), which actually rallied off its low of 53.12. LULU (-4.2%), EDZ (-4.1%), VXX (-3.1%), CMG (-2.6%), AMZN (-2.1%), QID (-2%) all bit dust today.

The Globe & Mail: Fukushima 50 risking their lives to try to prevent meltdown (Mar 17 2011)
MarketWatch: UN backs no-fly zone, strikes in Libya (Mar 17 2011)
MarketWatch: Oil futures top $103 after UN vote on Libya (Mar 17 2011)
Rohan Clarke: Less money, more money — QE3 in the headlights (Mar 17 2011)
Charles Rotblut: Bullish sentiment craters (Mar 17 2011)
BBC: Cable reaches Japan nuclear plant (Mar 17 2011)
Majoni* Celebrations: Wearables that contribute and show support (Mar 17 2011)
WSJ: Retailers push Amazon on taxes (Mar 17 2011)
IBD: Lululemon falls as demand outpaces inventory (Mar 17 2011)
WCSI News Talk: Former Shell Oil prez predicts $5 gas in 2012 (Mar 17 2011)
IBD: Yanzhou Coal, Carbo Ceramics up (Mar 17 2011)

(photo: Carbo Ceramics)

Cats and dogs

9:36 am (Hawaii). Does it even matter if the yen and dollar go up or down anymore? Crude oil? Or is Japanese POMO the short-term viagra for all markets in this particular galaxy?

I slept through this session except for a midway wakeup when I arose for a minute. AAPL was at 338 and I was pleasantly stunned. Even now, at 335, it's a 50% retrace from yesterday's close to today's high, and it's good. Maybe good enough to open a position, though I have doubts about how long this mini-rally will last. True, futures are bright green almost entirely, but after a few days with a toe in the grave, markets everywhere were due for a bounce.

Question is whether they're all a bunch of dead cats.

As for AAPL, it was just a matter of time before someone came along and upgraded it. Or, in this case, established coverage. Credit Suisse is aiming at $500 as a target. Those of you who stepped in yesterday at support (328) or below (LOD 326+) are geniuses. There's still no resolution to the Japanese effect on electronics parts prices/supply, but I believe the effect on AAPL is just that it might take a little longer to get to 400 and 500. The iPad 2, upcoming iPhone 5, new MacBook Pro, etc. are all not going to change. They're all still incredibly great pieces of technology.

335 isn't bad, either. 20 minutes until the close, Leaning toward a position. And very glad I got out of TVIX afterhours yesterday.

MarketWatch: Apple initiated at outperform by Credit Suisse (Mar 17 2011)

One night stands and ex-sex

2:18 am (Hawaii). Never had sex with an ex. Not ashamed to say it either. But if you can deal with ex-sex, you probably rode TVIX and VXX and anything else that saw the light of day yesterday, only to dump it before the close for a nice bit of pocket change. Or, as in the case of Jon Najarian, it was his most profitable day of the year.

I envy that. I also was overpowered by the uncertainty of the globe, of people delving into things that probably are a foot or two beyond our comprehension and reach. But we keep trying in the name of knowledge and self-sufficiency, or at the very least, just as an admission that we are powerless to end our dependency on crude oil, nuclear energy and coal.

Premarket started about 18 minutes ago without my presence and 55% of my watch list is green, 25% red and 20% unchanged (or untraded). Futures are bright green, mostly in energy and commodities and, yes, precious metals. Copper (+2.9%), palladium (+2.2%), soybean oil (+3.1%), oats (+2.2%), rough rice (2.3%), soybeans (+2.8%), wheat (+3.2%), cotton (2.5%) and more. I don't trade this stuff, but it says something about the climate of the market right now.

DJIA (+0.03%), S&P 500 (+0.02%) and Nasdaq 100 (+0.03%) are barely positive. Crude oil is up 2.4% (99.72). Without catching up on the news, it appears that stability has returned in moderation so far.

It's been a long time since I've seen so much of my watch list green. UCO (50.02, +2.6%) has barely traded. Same with EXK (8.65, +2.2%) and SLW (40.45, +2%), but they're at the top of the list. WNR, the oil refiner, hasn't traded yet. So much bullishness, and yet VXX is up slightly (+0.2%).

AAPL is down a fraction (344.62). NFLX continues to soar (222.36, +2.4%) off yesterday's Goldman Sachs upgrade. The second AAPL gets an upgrade, I won't be surprised if it rockets.

Somebody's lying

Update, 3:20 am (Hawaii). AAPL down on parts supplier issues (Japan, Foxconn)? AAPL trading at 342.11 (-1%).

It's probable that NFLX is simply exploding on another major short squeeze. It's probable that even an analyst upgrade wouldn't fuel AAPL as explosively.

Just minutes before the opening bell and NFLX is atop my watch list (222.05, +2.3%). FCX (52.53, +2.1%) is second and IPI, LULU and EXK follow. UCO, NGD, PAAS, TVIX, QID, SLW ... what a weird mix of leaders. A dysfunctional combination, indeed.

Meanwhile, PSUN is cratering (-9.3%) and SBUX (-2%) and LVS (-1.9%) are also at the bottom of my watch list.

Update, 3:31 am (Hawaii). AAPL sinking in early trading, trying to stay above 341. Support at 338, then 326. Market is slightly down, but 62% of my watch list is green.

QID is up 1.4%. SLW had been above 40 in premarket, but is now below. Smells like a BS premarket that will sell off early today, but I'm not putting any money where my mouth is.

Update, 3:39 am (Hawaii). OPEN exploding to the top of my watch list, now 90.60 (+2.9%). Why so high? Merriman Capital downgraded OPEN while raising estimates. Yeah, that sounds forked up.

EXK was close to the top of the list, pushing above 8.70 and I considered a small position. But within a minute, it puked and fell to 8.55. Roller coaster puke.

Update, 3:49 am (Hawaii). OPEN tailing off a bit from its high (91.63). 50% retrace would bring it to 89.82, but market is directionless right now, tough call. With LULU up 2.4% and GMCR up 2.5%, it's clear that daytraders are playing the momentum, probably until lunch hour at the latest. Don't get stuck holding the bag!

UCO climbed above 50, finally. TVIX still robust (52.80, +2.3%) while VXX stinks it up in comparison (+1.2%).

AAPL bounced off 339.06, now 340.54. Expecting a test of 338 at some point.

Update, 4:10 am (Hawaii). Interesting disconnect in copper futures (+2.5%) and FCX (-0.3%). EXK scared the crap out of me when it plunged from 8.72 to 8.50 in a minute or two, but has since rallied to 8.79. That's a heck of a scalp for anybody who stepped in. I've been waiting for a pullback to start a position, but it refuses to dip.

AAPL held up at support (338), but still on thin ice. Apparently, though the key parts will still be built for iPhones and iPads, the slowdown is enough to bump AAPL this low and possibly lower. No breaks for this stock.

My watch list is now 68% green, 32% red, and the market is barely underwater. It would be surprising if the market didn't finish green today. Even without AAPL leading the way.

Silver is a temptress

5:21 am (Hawaii). That didn't go so good. I opened a little position in EXK at 8.75 after it broke through the earlier HOD. It went gradually to 8.85, looked toppy and I nearly put in a stop loss sell order to insure it wouldn't lose money. Then it proceeded to tank all the way to 8.33 or so on the EU Energy chief's negatoid outlook on Japan's nuclear crisis, as if we needed to hear it from him.

I stuck by my technicals and waited out the downturn. And waited. And waited. Eventually, EXK bounced right up to 8.66 before running out of gas. I sold at 8.55 after missing 8.59. A small loss, but it could've been worse had I sold at the bottom. The percentage of loss equals less than half of 1 percent of my trading funds. It was a sight to behold during the drop. When Nasdaq showed -1.24% (after nearly getting back to even earlier), that was a holee sugar moment. The volume is muted on my TV so I had no idea what was going on until the drop resembled a sheer cliff and I followed the subtitles on the TV.

Even in a market as sick as this, I lost my discipline and did not sell at my original (mental) stop loss, which was 8.77. But as it dropped, I talked myself into changing the plan. Too confident or optimistic. The only smart thing I did was wait it out.

iPad w/ art sold on eBay

Update, 5:54 am (Hawaii). AAPL off the cart. The EU Energy chief's speech resulted in a mini-flash crash for a LOT of stocks, including AAPL, which sold off to 332+ briefly. Shares rallied to 338, but are now down to 334. Can AAPL close the day at support (338)? Or maybe 326 is closer than expected.

6:06 am (Hawaii). Nasdaq now down 1.44%, low of the day. AAPL back at 332.83 while TVIX is up 12.3%, VXX up 6.2% and QID up 4%. EXK well off its highs at 8.50. UCO off its HOD at 49.28.

Also, EDX up 3.9% and WNR up 2.8% (to 16.51). My wish list has reversed again with only 28% green now. OPEN is in the red (87.99) after momo traders dumped it at the HOD.

9:05 am (Hawaii). TVIX ran up to 64+ as I slept. Woh! Yesterday's close (51.62) and today's HOD (64.72) puts the 50% retrace at 58.17. TVIX has pulled back and is now 57.99. Stochastics are at 30 and climbing again, though MACD signal and line are negative.

During that plunge between 2 and 2:15 pm (Eastern), AAPL sunk to 326, the other support line I mentioned earlier. That level held and AAPL is now back at 332. I haven't even examined where AAPL's support would be if 326 cracked. Let's see... looks like it would be 300, though that dip extended as low as 297 intraday during that session. There's already been an Apple analyst on CNBC who expects shares to fall to the 200-day moving average: 298. AAPL is already hovering at its 100-day MA.

9:43 am (Hawaii). 17 minutes to the closing bell. TVIX giving way, finally, after gaining as much as 16+%. Traders taking their TVIX profits. Easy money? I don't think so. Riding TVIX requires 10 or 20 barf bags per trip. The spread, the pinball action ... completely Tazer-ish. Now at 59.30, dipping below 30 on stochastics and the MACD line and signal, which were positive, are now turning downward.

11:19 am (Hawaii). Talk about percolating pot of bleaah. I dared myself, in some way, to enter TVIX after eyeballing it for a long time. I got a decent price, 59.99, with the thought that it could run to 61+, especially after hitting 64+ earlier in the session. What I did not know is that the power company in Japan had already announced that it was close to completing a new power line to one of the failing nuclear reactors in Fukushima.

But TVIX ran, apparently because the same company soon after said that it couldn't pinpoint a time when the power line would be ready. So TVIX ran to 60.62 before the bell. I thought, again, about placing a stop-loss order. I've never followed or traded TVIX after the bell. But I didn't sell. Shares stayed at 60.50 or so for several minutes, but eventually slid below 60. I decided to get out, but pressure was to the downside, and with a hugely momo ETF like this, I almost had to stop staring at the price action. All over the place. I put in the sell order at 59.51 and TVIX continued lower. I held there, though. Eventually, half my order sold. Then, an hour or so later, the other half sold and I took a tiny loss.

1. Had I protected myself, it would've been a tiny profit or break even, but the range of the price from one blink of the eye to the next is so wide, allowing it to range around is almost a must.

2. It's impossible to get a feel for TVIX without knowing exactly what the news is out of Japan or elsewhere. I blame this on trading from my bed, which is, of course, my own fault. (It was so relaxing, though.)

3. Selling was a no-brainer, even with the power company seemingly uncertain. TVIX could easily, easily run back down to 51 or 47, the latter being the closing price on Monday. That would've been a significant losing trade rather than a tiny one.

4. Had I been stuck with half of my position — if that half hadn't sold in this thinly-traded issue after hours — it would've been a tolerable risk.

Of course, now that I'm out of TVIX, the bid is now 59.51 and the ask is 61.77. There was a trade of 40,000 shares at 59.86 a few minutes ago. It's still a better overnight hold than VXX (time decay eats into the price before morning), but being 100% cash again is fine by me. If that power line is somehow connected sometime before tomorrow's opening bell, TVIX probably returns to 50 in an instant.

Teevixen can be a maneater

Update, 11:49 am (Hawaii). This would explain the 40,000-share lot in TVIX afterhours (59.86) as well as the much higher ask (61+): the dollar-yen support is totally decimated. More below at Zero Hedge. Reuters reports that foreign firms want the Tokyo Stock Exchange to close tomorrow (which is actually just two hours from now).

CNBC is reporting that Japanese officials are calling a press conference at that same time. Maybe they'll talk about the power line. Or shutting down TSE for a day. Maybe both. Maybe neither. They'll talk, though, and that's welcome.

Update, 12:16 pm (Hawaii). A look at TVIX, EXK and AAPL.

Not much to be gained from TVIX's chart

Just pretty, that's all

Winter's TVIX shorts are long gone

Today's volume the most ever

EXK under selling pressure two days in a row

EXK in choppy seas after a big run

AAPL under relentless selling pressure

after today's downgrade

50-day moving average (rope of hope) snapped.

Now the 100-day MA is being tested.

Prince of the Refiners? WNR warming up

WNR and refiners are in a sweet spot

Dan Norcini: Will the Bank of Japan come into the Forex markets this evening? (Mar 16 2011)
Reuters: TSE to keep Japan's trading floors open (Mar 16 2011)
Zero Hedge: USDJPY goes bidless (Mar 16 2011)
Reuters: EU energy chief says Japan reactor 'out of control' (Mar 16 2011)
Wall Street Journal: US stock futures turn slightly higher, crude up $2 (Mar 16 2011)
WSJ: Bahrain crackdown sparks rebound in oil prices (Mar 16 2011)
Business Insider: JMP downgrades AAPL (Mar 16 2011)