I keep waiting

Dow Jones is down 223 fricking points, but UNG keeps inching higher. The notorious ETF (WTF in the eyes of many former shareholders) hit 8.22 a minute ago and is currently at 8.20.

I sold at 8.00 shortly after the open for a 1-cent loss. Very un-booyaaa. I'd re-enter at a better price, but UNG is acting like a safe haven, like a Treasury bond or TLT, except it'll probably reward the buyer far better than something that offers near-nada interest.

True enough, though, once the DJ got over (under?) 200 points down, natty gassers began seeping into that same Sea of Red. Half of the 39 I've been tracking are now negatoid on the day. UPL, which had been up more than 2%, is now down by a fraction of a percentage point.

Why is UNG holding up so well despite a spotty track record? As an ETF, track records mean very little. It's not an "ultrashort" type of vehicle, but has moved up on my list in terms of percentage gain even as that list gets more red by the minute. That tells me that UNG is likely overbought, possibly because of its attractive price (sub 10) more than anything. But the entire sector has been pummeled for a long time, especially UNG. The more hated it has been, the more loved it is at the moment. Who knows how much of this is a short squeeze?

See you, Birmingham, Ala.!

Dow down 178, Nat Gas mostly green

Of the 39 nat gas stocks I began studying yesterday, 31 are in the green on an otherwise horrific morning. Sure, AAPL has battled back and is still trading above 260, but I didn't even filter out the natty gassers that were questionable or carried more oil in their inventory than I'd really like. But those 31 are still green.

REXX +6.2% to 11.91
KWK +5.5% to 12.80
GDP +5.6% to 14.77
HERO +4.8% to 3.06
ROSE +4.6% to 24.77

It goes on and on. I still prefer UNG for the time being, waiting for a better entry point as it trades near its intraday high (8.15). As an ETF, it will be more stable. However, some of these sub-5 natty gassers will probably have wicked swings for days or weeks to come. Really, do you think Obama will step to a podium and suddenly declare that clean energy does not include nat gas? Hell no.

FTK +4.0% to 1.54
MMR +3.8% to 10.64
RRC +3.1% to 52.64

A lot of these companies have frankly crappy fundamentals. I can accept that. The environment has been slanted against them politically until Obama finally uttered the word "embrace" regarding nat gas. But there are more than a few natty gassers that have HUGE debt and wildly overpaid executives (see yesterday's posts and charts). Those stocks will be the first to fall off the wagon in this run, though it could last for some time. It's like the gold rush and all those potential panhandlers breaking the speed limit (of 8 mph) to get from the Midwest to Californica. Yee haaw, brothers and sisters. Yee fucking haw.

I must overcome my natural tendency to duck and hide, and open a tiny position or two. Nat gas simply showing too much strength. We'll have a better idea by lunchtime — will the market manipulators take their profits and eat a big, fat pastrami sandwich for an hour? — and again by the close. If the market sells off like mad into the close, where will nat gas go? It could hold ground, or sell off in anticipation of another ride up next week. The MMs will play that game until your balls are broken. I'd rather play the game along with them than overpay and get caught holding the bag.

Bismarck, N.D., I see you!

Why I'm feeling titillated today

Breakfast: Sugar-free Red Bull, 16-oz. Almost empty already.

Oil has long been a proxy of sorts for the market. When crude gets beaten down, the market usually follows like a shadow. When crude has a good day, the market is up. Opposite has been true of the dollar. And that's that.

Now, however, oil is down and nat gas is up in the teeth of a hater's market. Dow Jones is down 158, yet UNG is up 1.4%, WPRT is up 2.1%, CHK is up 2.1% and UPL is up 1.3%. Granted, nat gas was hammered in recent years and there is a reasonable argument to be made that the sector has been oversold. I look at the numbers, though, and see that just about all of these companies have underperformed — expectedly so in an anti-nat gas environment. Now that Obama has spoken the magic words — that the Fed will "embrace" clean energy like nat gas, it's a whole new world and these 15 and 19 and 7 percent gains in nat gas plays since Obama's speech at 2 pm Eastern on Wednesday ... may just be the beginning.

I'm not totally sold on nat gas. Apparently, there are serious byproduct issues and a groundswell of opposition. But nat gas is superior to coal at this point on balance, and certainly more golden than oil sands, which strip the environment and ecosystem. Whatever the case is, nat gas is the antidote to nasty crude oil swings, it appears.

Washington, D.C. in the house! Belfast, Ireland! Wow. Herndon, Va.!

Fun Friday morning?

The Dow is down 174 points, Nasdaq is down 31 and S&P 500 down 17. So what makes this a fun Friday morning? Simple. Since I did a little digging on those 39 or so natural gas stocks, I've noticed a trickle of visitors to this modest blog from across the globe. Nat gas has that kind of appeal, apparently.

Singapore. California. Florida. Midwest. Right now, Seoul is in the house. So is Picayune, Miss., and Fort Lauderdale, Fla. Awesome! Seoul is definitely a first. With US Treasury chief Tim Geithner heading there in the coming week, I'd love to see what's going on in the minds of Seoul residents.