Huge hump day (updated 9:55 am)

5:31 am (Hawaii) It could be huge. Or just a puff of smoke blowing by. Will anything really change with the "informal" EU summit?

Re-opened a position in FAZ at 28.05. With each passing day in May, it's easy to say in hindsight that it's better to just let a position run. Just hold it overnight; Europe is a long way from printing more euros. But I've been burned before on overnight holds of FAZ. And mornings like this when I can't get wake up before 5 am, too risky. There's time to catch any (Eastern time) afternoon runs.

RTE News: What can the EU summit deliver? (May 23)
Bloomberg: European Banks Unprepared for Greek Exit from Euro (May 23)

Update 6:44 am Stopped out of FAZ at 28.25 (+0.21/share). Tiny profit, I'll take it. Volume at its softest of the day as FAZ faded from its high. Indices are all roughly -1.3%. Nothing bullish (or bearish) out of the EU summit. Yet.

Update 6:58 am Re-entered FAZ at 28.24 as it bounced off a swing to 28.15. Stop loss as always is in place. Volume low, whipsaw action could get more drastic. Maybe at the top of the hour.

Update 7:23 am Stopped out of FAZ at 28.07 (-0.17/share) for a tiny loss. I'm now break even for the day. The chart looks like it's tiring and the indices are starting to rally a bit. (DJ -1.1%, Nas -1%, S&P -1%.) FAZ could jump from here, but I'm not going to force a trade.

AAPL back in the green, now 559.40, up more than $2. No idea if it will stick, though @TraderFlorida has a clear-cut view of where it will go.

Update 7:52 am The Fibonacci retrace from today's high (off yesterday's close of 27.03) is at 27.90. FAZ was at 27.88 just a minute ago, now bouncing to 28.03. Funny how that usually works. A little more volume and I might be convinced.

Update 7:58 am Back in FAZ at 28.06. Stop loss in place.

Update 8:03 am Need to check news far more frequently. This hit the wire at about 7:15 Hawaii time (45 minutes ago):

Bloomberg: Greek Capital Boost May Help Banks to Staunch Deposit Outflows (May 23)

FAZ was at 28.20 before this headline. Then it plummeted to 27.88, which I saw earlier. But I left my stop loss alone after buying at 28.06, and it's now back at 28.10 after wavering below 28. The injection of 18B euros ($23B in dollars) is a band-aid on the bank jog problem.

Update 8:34 am Stopped out of FAZ at 28.12 (+.06/share) for the teeniest of profits. It was up to 28.32 and yanking back violently in the past several minutes on strong volume.

Update 8:44 am That was ugly. Entered FAZ at 28.03, and the second it hit, it slumped to 27.98 and it got fugly after that. Dropped to 27.83 in a matter of 1 minute if that and I was stopped out for a small loss. Volume was big, and I should've taken the cue from a long red candle on the 3-min chart just 12 minutes ago or so. Trying a bit too hard here, time to step away.

Update 9:35 am In AAPL at 568.80. Passed on it earlier at 566. Stop loss is fairly tight. Strictly a day trade. Nasdaq crossed over to green a couple of minutes ago. The summit in Europe has the market bullish for the time being.

Update 9:47 am Out of AAPL at 570.80 (+2.00/share) for a tiny profit. I raised my stop loss a few times, but once it hit 572.80 and sold off fast, I needed to get out. I wanted to change the stop loss to a limit sell for a higher price, but it moved a little faster to the downside and I chose not to get too greedy. Just wanted to get out with a profit and took a price below bid due to the speed of price action downward. (Stop loss was at 570.30, so I did better making the quickie adjustment.)

No way I would've held AAPL overnight. Too much risk at the summit.

Update 9:55 am Euro madness? More like euro anxiety. Tempting to get a little position in FAZ here, being pessimistic on Greece, but probably staying out until we get some news from the summit.

Reuters: Eurozone tells members to make contingencies for Grexit (May 23)

Fibs and Apples (updated)

Well, that 546 (Fibonacci) level I've waited for is getting closer. AAPL dropped to 556 several minutes ago due to 1) profit taking and 2) supposed low iPhone activation stats released by AT&T. Something like that. Whatever. I'm not a buyer of AAPL above 600 nor do I believe people are going to stop buying iPhones, especially when the iPhone 5 comes out. Heck I want one too though I probably won't get one. I just understand the fury and obsession over it.

I just haven't appreciated that fury and obsession quite enough. Otherwise I wouldn't have sold at 106 or 257. For now, keeping a close eye on AAPL. It's down 2.6% for the day to 556.49, pulling the NAS down while the DJ and S&P are up.

Update 10:38 am (Hawaii) I picked up a 1/4 position in AAPL at 560.40 just before the bell. Not much risk, my opinion. After hours, I looked away from my screen for a few seconds and AAPL bounced to 581. Even while it was rising to 585, Maria Bartiromo and her guests on CNBC were still unaware for about 20, 30 seconds. I added the other 3/4 position in AAPL at 589. Blowout quarter. No surprise.

11.8 mil iPads sold
35.1 mil iPhones sold

And that was a "slow" quarter as many iPhone fans await iPhone 5 out later this year. The upside remains gargantuan. Apple bulls talking about less than 5% of the European market, plenty of room to grow there. I didn't get my 546. AAPL hit a floor at 555 today. The only factor(s) that could keep this below 600 and 700 from here is the external market, i.e. global conditions.

Update 11:05 am (Hawaii) AAPL staying above 600 (for now). Below, footage from an iPhone 4 release in 2010 in the Bay Area.



Update 12:31 pm (Hawaii) After dipping to 595+, AAPL ran back up to 602+ and is now hovering at 600-601 after hours.

An observation about Twitter, Apple and positioning. Is Twitter the next shoe to drop (for $10 billion)?

More chatter online about China growth. China revs for Q2 were $7.9 billion. This video below shows how crazy it can get there when new Apple products are released. This was from last May (or so).





From 2010, the first iPad release in Beijing

42.96? (updated 425 am HST)

3:45 am (Hawaii) Couldn't get online while I was out running an errand (yes at pre-dawn) until now. FAZ opened at 44.89 and is selling off down to 43.81 now. I'm looking for a Fibonacci retrace of the gap up that would bring the price in to 42.96. If it holds there and the market stays put, maybe I'll start a small position. Anything goes in this friggin headline insanity market, so I'm not too gung ho about this level. I wasn't gung ho at 35+ either so I'm just a chickenshit.

Dow -260, Nas -63, S&P -31.

Update 4:01 am That was typically freaky. FAZ went from 43.30ish to 43.95 in a few seconds. About 15 seconds after that, Bloomberg came out with bad news on some economic numbers. But as soon as the reporter noted that there were some good numbers mixed in, FAZ sold right back to 43.30. This is why price discipline is key and fluctuations can wear out any trader. The kind of discipline that has a new position at 36 and rides this wave out. Probably would've sold by now. I'm a nervous nellie.

Update 4:25 am Second test of the 42.96 level failed avalanche style after flirting with 43.10-43.35 for several minutes. Once it stepped below 42.96, splash. Now at 42.52. Glad I waited on some support first rather than pushing against the odds. FAS might be a decent trade now, but I want more than decent. Sitting this out for sure now, at least for now. Breaking that level tells me that the market in FAZ has lost its buying pressure and sellers are moving in.

Dow -191, Nas -51, S&P -22

I would never Fib

Actually, I would and I have before — fib, as in use Fibonacci to my advantage. Maybe it's just sheer probability and numbers that convince me that I actually get close when I try to guess lows and highs. Take this morning's premarket action in AAPL.

It hit 344.90 before peon retail traders could touch it. (That would include me.) A 61.8% retrace would bring AAPL down to 342.71. So, which the rest of me wondered about getting out here — can it get any better after this run from 326 when most of the trading world is high on Obama and POMO? No, it's due for a pullback, small or large.

But as I wondered about selling, AAPL snuck below 344 and wandered about in the 344.50 area. When it dove near 344 and change, I really wanted to get out, but I kept watching. Of course, once it sank below 344, it dove warp-speed fast to 343. Then an interesting thing happened as I froze up and waited to see if this Fib would stand. Shares hit 342.50 or so, then bounced in a flurry and headed back north of 343. Trading now at 343.02 with the bid at 343.24.

My hunch before PM was that it would peak right off the bat with some typical MM gameplay, then sell off until the opening bell. I wasn't totally wrong on that but I am surprised it's holding at 343. Obama's speechgiving talent has juiced the market before, but it never lasts. Time may have come for me to just leave my AAPL position be and let QE take hold on the market as a charmer would lull a cobra.

Update, 5:11 am (Hawaii time): All the momo homerun stocks are in quicksand, well, most of them. The oddest thing might just be happening right now — money is rotating out of stuff like NFLX and into ... AAPL? Sounds weird, but on an otherwise flat day so far (45 minutes in), AAPL has stayed in the green. It lost most of its premarket gain, but is on a tear. The machines are humming and they're buying up AAPL. Glad I didn't sell. Ticker is ripping ahead at 344.40 and counting.

If everything else is basically red and AAPL is one of the few in the green, what does that bode for the rest of the day? Is AAPL due to sell off? Nothing is safe in a correction, but right now, there's no insanity in the economy and market. Not like the past two years.

Update, 5:25 am. My TV is on mute and I've been disinterested in CNBC's usual yackle (my word), so it took a tweet from the imperial Mr. Fly to inform me that the Dow is north of 12,000 now. Really, just like that, the market turned green. That only helps AAPL, which is holding its ground above 344, might crack 345. All because of ... Dow 12,000?

Really. Is it 50% psychological? Or is it really 90% psych? After all, if I trusted my numbers, I wouldn't have hesitated to add more AAPL for a quick trade when it hit 342+. But instead, like the average peeboy, I really wanted to sell. At the day's bottom. Trademark of a loser, and another dumb habit I just haven't defeated yet. But I didn't sell, so there. Progress.

AAPL now at 344.93. Now 345.00. Bada Bing!

8:00 am. Well, can't say I'm surprised. Any time Obama makes a big deal about clean(er) energy, Nat Gas stocks explode, pun intended. Of the 40 on my little "Nat Gas for Obama" watch list, 38 are in the green and most of them are 1, 2, 3, even 5+% higher right now. I suppose some savvy traders jumped in yesterday (or prior), but I'm not touching nat gas. Though clean energy is going to be real someday, it's a 25-year plan in the making (2035 is the target date for 80% clean in the US). This is capable of being a lengthy nat gas run, but when it runs out of legs, like it did last year, bagholders will be left behind, crispy and toasty.

Just doesn't have the staying power. I like AAPL.

9:19 am. Dave Fry likes to note a 2:15 (Eastern) buy program by the machines has lifted the market lately. Sheer manipulation by the Fed, he says. Fine with me. I just saw AAPL shares go bonkers for several seconds and his words came to mind. But now AAPL has dipped below 345 to 344.33, waffling as it has in this range for the past few hours. I have some thoughts about the FOMC meeting and how one odd sentence could send the market off its rails.

In the near term, AAPL has fewer potential catalysts than it's had in months. It won't take much to knock it off the hill some. And as I type that, AAPL dips below 344 and selling pressure is mounting. Probably better off getting some sleep.

9:29 am. On CNBC: FOMC: RETAINS PLEDGE TO KEEP RATES EXCEPTIONALLY LOW FOR "EXTENDED PERIOD"

And AAPL bounces from 343.90 to 344.49 in a split second. Still waffling, but it's no-news-is-good-news. Now let's see if AAPL can close above resistance (345+).

Getting toppy already?

Another awesome night of rest. 6:58 am Hawaii time and the markets are flush with green gold. DJ up 93, Nas +27 and S&P +11 with 3 hours left in today's session. Nas is up 1.26% after lagging yesterday. Yesterday's strong finish was a tell for Nas, but I didn't really care. I slept nice, still 100% cash.

The Nat Gas sector is on fire. My list of 39 has 38 issues in the green. That's quite positive for the time being. BEXP (+6.80%), PQ (+6.62%), KOG (+6.56%) and MMR (+6.19) lead after a couple of down days for the sector. Natural profit-taking before another run, probably.

UNG is the lone red bleeder (-1.59%) at 8.05. It's reverted back to its form in pre-Obama Clean Energy speech times. Huge selling today.

Nat gas is up, but so is oil. USO is up 3.04% despite BP dropping a whopping 8.87%. Much of that, as well as the market's surge up, came on Bernanke's bullish speech. BP trading at 31.75 now.

US Steel rallying again, up 3.5% to 42.79. FCX up 2.05%, though its off its highs. FXI up 1.83% (39.52).

Positive on those fronts, plus financials are up. C (+3.43% to 3.87), GS up fractionally to 138.19 (a steal?) and Spanish conquistador STD is up 2.79% to 9.20. C has been a smart buy below 3.60 for the past year. STD dipped momentarily below 9 today. Both tempt me.

Dollar down (UUP -0.65%, 34.16) and Euro up (FXE +0.65%, 119.91). We may be topping a bit here if the tiny caps are any indication. BBI is up 2.27% to 0.29 and HAUP is +3.30% to 2.19. BBI (Blockbuster Video) is likely going to file for bankruptcy and trades primarily as a lottery ticket. How quickly the market turns stupid again.

Photo: Denise Milani (no website)

C of love

Bill Ackman is the latest Wall Street shark to take a large bite of Citigroup and make that his own. WSJ reported yesterday after the market closed that Ackman has bought 150 million shares of C.

Citi closed at 3.86 yesterday and is at 4.02 in premarket trading this morning.

With futures in the stratosphere and less-hellish visuals in the media — BP's "top kill" works so far, according to the LA Times, China is saying the right thing about Eurozone debt, etc. — there's not much to knock C and the rest of the market down this morning.

[Update, 3:41 am Hawaii: Fib retrace levels from yesterday's low to this morning's high (4.07) are 3.99 (38.2% retrace), 3.96 (50% retrace) and 3.93 (61.8% retrace).]

What's Hauppenin'?

So, as expected, HAUP has traded like many infamous penny stocks of yesteryear. After leaping from 0.92 (Thursday afternoon) to 4.85 (intraday Friday), HAUP has lost all momentum from a cleverly timed press release (Apple tie-in). Friday's mediocre earnings report after the bell set shares on an accelerated decline.

HAUP gapped down this morning to 3.22 and closed at 2.82. Whatever the surrounding conditions, the shares have done two things:

1. Retraced 38% of the Thursday-Friday gain (3.38)

2. Retraced 50% of the same gain (2.92)

If and when HAUP slides to 2.45, that would make a 61.8% retrace — possibly the max of this tumultuous slide. At 2.45, or even 2.00, HAUP would still have doubled (and then some) from its Thursday intraday low.

I've been neither long nor short this stock, but I've been on the winning and losing end of long trades in penny stocks years ago, and it was ecstatic or gruesome. No in-between. I finally learned the danger of fooling with pennies that had no real basis for a 300 or 400 or 500% gain in a matter of hours.

Like any other stock, risk management is paramount. Risking anything more than 2% of an entire account value on one trade is not sensible.

Blocked and busted?

Blockbuster (BBI) on the move this morning. I haven't touched a sub-$3 stock since Fannie Mae, which is as bottom-of-the-barrel as it gets. BBI has an earnings report after the bell today and traders have moved BBI in recent months since a major selloff in mid-January. BBI closed yesterday at 0.46, dipped to 0.4426 early today, and has since climbed to 0.54. It's an entertaining watch, but getting in is a whole different story. Taking a position based on any old price just because BBI seems cheap is foolishness. I'm not against a very small speculative position. But these specs are in the barrel for a reason, and they'll run down on the slightest whiff of bad news, far faster and lower than a $50 or $100 stock.

Whatever the case, an orderly, sensible entry point is worthwhile if this spec is to be played. This is for today's movement only.

BBI: day high 0.54, day low 0.4426

38% retrace: 0.5028

50% retrace: 0.4913

62% retrace: 0.4798

Go back to the day (Jan. 20) before the most recent selloff, and it looks like this:

38% retrace: 0.58

50% retrace: 0.52

62% retrace: 0.45

That 0.58 level is where the recent run stopped and reversed back down, and the 0.52 level is where BBI is hitting a ceiling today. Some good news in today's CC would likely push BBI to the 0.70-0.79 level. Anything less than spectacular news might take it to April levels below 0.30.

Will Blockbuster really compete with Netflix and Coinstar one day? Just that possibility might be enough to push shares up more. BBI has doubled in little more than a month, but with $1 billion of debt, getting over a buck per share and staying there will be rough.

Another perspective: Take BIDU, which split 10:1 recently. It went from 620 to 710 in a day (two weeks ago). Percentage-wise, it's the same as a jump from 0.62 to 0.71. Yesterday, BIDU's split went into effect, and from a pre-split perspective, shares went 710 to 790; today, up to 820 ... or in terms of percentage gain, from 0.71 to 0.82 in a matter of two days. It's all the same no matter where the decimal point is.

BBI has gone from .25 to .51 in a month-plus, same gain if it had gone from 25 to 51 or 250 to 510. Caution advised.

Thursday tornado

Thursday, I have met Monday, and you, sir, are no Monday.

This is normally a stagnant day of the week for the market, but the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P have just turned green for the first time today. BIDU is still on fire, up 3.5% to 81 (82.29 high). AAPL is at 264.89 (+1.1%) and NFLX is up 10.15% to 118.65.

Even BBI is up 10.5% to 47¢ in anticipation of an earnings report after today's close.

All those inverse ETFs and ETNs aren't doing so hot. VXX is down 0.8% to 23.89. I'm glad I stayed out of those today.

I might have tried BIDU at the open (80.97) or in premarket, but sleep debt caught up to me and I got up 30 minutes after the opening bell. It's nice and quiet in Honolulu. Dark and cool at 4 am.

BIDU Fibonacci retrace, two-day span:

38% retrace: 78.67

50% retrace: 77.56

62% retrace: 76.43

The momentum hasn't waned in BIDU, but when the bears take over, it'll be a slingshot.

The euro (FXE) is down 0.50% to 23.89 while the short euro ETF, EUO, is up 1.01% to 23.89. Who wins this battle? I am not going to guess, let alone dip my toes into these waters.

GLD slowing down at 121.18 (-0.18%) and SLV is at 19.21 (-0.90%).

Roids R Us: BIDU

Mad run from 76.80 to 78.10 for a new high by BIDU a few minutes ago. Now selling off and back to 77.42. New intraday Fib retracement levels:

38.2% 76.09

50.0% 75.47

61.8% 74.84

BIDU may not return to 76 today (though I think it will), but radical swings are part of its DNA. Even after the 10:1 split, apparently.

Monday: Premarket Fibs

NBG

Friday close: 2.67

Monday premarket high 3.50

61.8% retrace: 2.99

50.0% retrace: 3.08

38.2% retrace: 3.17

Current price: 3.18

IMAX

Friday close: 17.36

Monday premarket high: 18.58

61.8% retrace: 17.82

50.0% retrace: 17.97

38.2% retrace: 18.12

Current price: 18.25

AAPL

Friday close: 235.86

Monday premarket high: 253.46

61.8% retrace: 242.58

50.0% retrace: 244.66

38.2% retrace: 246.74

Current price: 248.79

2:33 am HST

More Fibs

C

Friday close: 4.00

Monday premarket high: 4.39

61.8% retrace: 4.15

50.0% retrace: 4.20

38.2% retrace: 4.25

Current price: 4.30

F

Friday close: 11.51

Monday premarket high: 12.49

61.8% retrace: 12.08

50.0% retrace: 12.25

38.2% retrace: 12.42

Current price: 12.09

FAS

Friday close: 27.05

Monday premarket high: 31.19

61.8% retrace: 28.63

50.0% retrace: 29.12

38.2% retrace: 29.61

Current price: 30.40

FAZ

Friday close: 12.98

Monday premarket high: 14.55

61.8% retrace: n/a

50.0% retrace: n/a

38.2% retrace: n/a

Current price: 12.99

note: Early premarket (prior to 8 am Eastern) irrelevant now with futures massively bullish

VXX

Friday close: 29.25

Monday premarket high: 27.35

Monday premarket low: 25.81

61.8% retrace: n/a

50.0% retrace: n/a

38.2% retrace: n/a

Current price: 25.81

Also watching:

URR (Double Long Euro ETN)

EWQ (MSCI France Index)

SPY (S&P 500 Index)

FXE (Euro Trust)

Note: Most, if not all, of the morning lows were not available to retail buyers.

Playing VXX: The Journal

From 6:39 am Hawaii time:

It's taken me a long, long, long time to learn that it's just fine to trade in both directions, to place bets in two entirely different places.

Example: With AAPL getting toasted lately — Fed claiming antitrust practices (app developers are restricted) and Nokia filing patent infringement (today), not to mention global contagion fear starting in Greece, Gulf oil spill, Goldman Sachs banksters, China economic slowdown/inflation threat/real estate bubble ... well, the stock got focking hammered. From 272, it got slammed in yesterday's bollsh1t meltdown and rally, and today went back down (though not as low) to 225.

What I did before today's market opened was get shares of VXX, which measures panic and fear, basically. It's an ETF, meaning it moves like it's on steroids and crack. Dangerous if used the wrong way. With all the sh1t going on globally and here in the US, the percentages are in favor of VXX.

Sure enough, VXX was up as much as 14% in the first hour today (my shares were at 27.40 from afterhours trading yesterday) as it hit 31.27 this morning. Right about that time, 10:30 am Eastern, the market was bloody red. AAPL was at its low (225). But I felt secure because A) Apple will come back no matter how frikkkking low it goes, and B) VXX was making me almost as much money as AAPL was losing.

That gave me a strange new sense of security. I'd heard about hedging before, mainly by using puts and calls (options) and fancy craap like that. But this was a simpler way to hedge. AAPL and VXX traded almost like mirror images on opposite sides of the line.

The only drawback was, me being so green when it comes to holding shares in a "doomsayer" stock/ETF like VXX, I lost track of trying to make a profit in it. Instead, I kept watching how much it was ahead, profit-wise, compared to AAPL's loss for the day. A green number that got as high as $1,400, while the red number for AAPL got as low as -$2,100. For much of the morning, though, AAPL was 'ahead' of VXX by just 200-300 bucks.

I wanted VXX to win, weird as that sounds. And as I forgot about selling VXX, it began to pull back some, from 31 to 30, then the high 29s. Then something really funny happened: Obama showed up on TV. Surprise speech to the nation. Dow Jones was -150 when he showed up. His talk was just a few minutes long, but the Dow immediately ran off its losses. AAPL rallied a bit. VXX plunged!

I felt weird. A bit torn, but more just weird. By the time Obama was done, addressing the matter of Thursday's market meltdown with just a sentence or two, the Dow was down just 75 points, and the momentum carried until it was only -50.

VXX dropped below 28 and struggled to stay above. My paper gain suddenly became a potential paper loss. Now I cared. Funny how that happens. So I kept a closer eye on it, knowing that VXX had bounced off the 27.70 level earlier. It dipped to 27.70, sure enough, and I nearly put in a stop-loss sell at 27.65. VXX ran up a bit and I waited.

Then I realized that taking a really small loss wouldn't kill me, so I decided to set my stop loss at 27.49, then 27.44, and ultimately, I put it in at 27.10. As I did that, VXX bottomed out somewhere around 27.20.

That was 10 minutes ago, and now it's back up to 28.25. The MACD and Stochastics on the 3-minute chart didn't lie. The Dow, which was in positive territory, is now -90. The post-lunch selloff has commenced. Traders will lighten up before the weekend, probably.

Now I'm convinced, it's best to weave in and out of a race car like VXX. Spending more time out than in is crucial. It has its solid re-entry points for traders. Parliament in England is at a stalemate, so nothing has been resolved there regarding the Euro crisis. Germany is still unsettled about Greece.

The chaos will resume by Monday, if not before. I don't plan to hold VXX over the weekend, but there will be a sell and another possible round trip before today is done. Learning as I go along, but the biggest lesson of today is to focus on the trade, not the ego trip of losing money in AAPL or anything else.

To hedge gains an edge.

6:55 am HST

Note: Fibonacci retracement levels from yesterday's intraday low (23.45) to today's high (31.27):

28.42 (-38.2% retrace of gain)
27.46 (-50.0% retrace of gain)
26.49 (-61.8% retrace of gain)

VXX has held the 50% retrace well so far today. Odds are in favor of traders closing out long positions before today's close. Odds of traders adding positions ahead of the potential influx of hedge and mutual fund buys on Monday (a common pattern during the bull run since mid-February) are diminished due to faltering global circumstances.

Monday could be a bounce depending on the Greece bailout becoming official policy of Euro "league".

7:00 am HST

Terranova: The sad thing is the machines are driving the direction.

Kaminsky: This is not the end. This is the beginning of much more volatility.

Love to hear that. I'm not persuaded to hold VXX over the weekend (might carry a tiny position), but looking forward to trading it with precision the next few days, weeks, maybe months.

7:09 am HST

Short-term may not be ideal for reading charts, but VXX has definitely begun to coil and narrow its range the past two hours. Holding steady at 28.00, well off its high of 31-plus, but a healthy gain since yesterday.

Barring a visit from Real Santa Claus, a speech to the Euro nations by the Easter Bunny Rabbit and a heartfelt admission of guilt and shame by Darth Vader, VXX is unlikely to return to 27.00 today.

Dow -116, Nas -40, S&P -13. The VXX coil could unleash like Cobraaaah...

Tell a little Fib

ITMN ... what a spectacle to watch. I feel for anyone who's held a biotech stock through the FDA process, then got hammered. I was there when DNDN was rejected and the stock fell from 7 to 4 some years back.

But watching the shares of ITMN today is on par with any great comeback in sports. It ran from sub-10 to 11.14, then bounced nicely off its Fibonacci retracement levels (10.61, 10.44), actually touching the 50% retrace (10.44). Now trading at 10.70. How long that holds, who knows? How many shorts can hold out? How many of the shares are being controlled by day traders? It's compelling action. I hope ITMN gets back to 40 some day, regardless.

NBG is another story. It never returned to Fib levels after hitting an intraday high, bouncing off 2.90 before racing up over the 3.00 mark. Now at 3.03. I did not chase this thing. Holy crap. After being down huge early, NBG is now up 7%.

BIDU is at 689, or 11 bucks higher than it was when I got shook out. Tiny position, but my feelings are hurt anyway. Waah.

And as I type, NBG is now 3.10. Great Aphrodite!!