Being real, finally

I never think of myself as a buyer of doom. True, I once traded FAZ for a few days (a year ago), but that was faddish.

Holding VXX overnight, then holding it through the premarket jobs report — I had planned to sell prior to that — was a calculated risk. Percentages are hard to ignore in the midst of chaos, panic, surrender, et al. So many external factors, and with the market generally giving up on Apple, of all giants, there is true volatility in the market again today.

I held even though financials were positive through the opening bell. Having traded C for profits before (despite my horrendous recent track record), I didn't like that against my VXX position. But sure enough, the market gave back the early gains and was in the hole -200 points on the Dow a short while ago.

Meanwhile, VXX plowed steadily ahead, taking me to break-even (27.40), then busting through 28, 29 and 30. Each time, hitting that whole number opened a whole new pedal-to-the-metal rate of speed before some selloff, even more so when it hit 31.27. Close enough to yesterday's high of 31.54, and VXX has sold off some since. Volatility or not, profits will be taken, and I thought about taking mine.

Then I realized that 1) the FTSE is blood red, and 2) AAPL is still hobbling along below 240, sold off extra because of a lawsuit by Nokia for patent infringement. Long term, they settle out of court. Nokia ain't gonna take Apple down, though Apple could add a buyout to the proceedings just to shut them up. For now, though, it's just another excuse for weak hands to get out.

So my gain in VXX this morning offsets my loss in AAPL, all on paper, of course. But it's good to be real and serve two masters, so to speak. Finally. Dumbass chaos around the world isn't so irritating any more. Bring it on! Give me stress? Give me your money, too. Fuck you and thank you. Someone's gotta cash in on chaos.

In a few weeks from now, when there is some sense of normalcy again, I will take my gains from VXX (and maybe FAZ, UUP, EPV, NBG — yes, baklava rules — EUO and UGL) to add shares of AAPL. I might even go beserko and buy more AAPL on margin if the percentages favor an meteoric return to the stratosphere. Let's say the market squares up, regains its balance and AAPL makes a serious reversal. I'm in. I'm in big.

Fucked-up Euro or not, the new iPhone is coming soon, baby, and no protesting in the streets of Spain, Portugal or Ireland will stop that.

Garmin a gnome or a giant?

Almost too good to be true if you've been waiting for a bargain price in Garmin (GRMN). At $96.54, or the afterhours price of $96.40, the stock is trading below its 10-day SMA and EMA and its 50-day moving averages. That kind of dip is extremely rare to find in today's frothy market, and not without reason. The major run-up left a lot of traders with hefty paper profits, and when Garmin got the stiff arm (Nokia's planned buyout of Navteq), it appeared at first that Garmin's access to online mapping was shot.

Not so, though. Nokia/Navteq is still contracted to sell maps to Garmin, though there's no way to know what happens with the pricing. The deal is long term, so it's not like Garmin's great GPS products will go without maps all of a sudden. The Co has alternatives, though, none were as good as owning a Navteq. Still, I see the Co rebounding from this major drop over the past three sessions. The all-time high of 122 on Friday is no more.

This 21% fall is mighty. It is also losing steam. Volume on Monday, the gap-down session, was 22 million shares. It was 19 mil on Tuesday and 9 mil today. Is the selloff done? Perhaps. The Co seems to be in no rush to soothe shareholders. I wouldn't be surprised if there was no word from Garmin until earnings come out at the end of this month.

So, is GRMN a buy? Depends on what you think of management and the Co's execution.

Pupule says: Buy small if at all. The floor is near, and shrinking volume says a lot. When this stock turns back up, it'll be swift.

Quarry Logic: Growth that can't be stopped

As Mo'ili'ili Quarry was dug out to pave the roads of Waikiki and greater Honolulu 60 years ago, there are necessities across America and the globe that cannot be denied. So, I'm going to keep a tidy little list to remind myself of what's important not to me, but to the rest of the world. The blossoming may not happen next week or next month, but sooner or later, these companies will bear fruit. Big, juicy, awesome fruit.

• China Internet. Computers are not affordable to the vast majority of mainland Chinese. Cellphones are vastly more popular already, as is instant messaging. I once underestimated the role of China's leading wireless king. No more. The players: China Mobile (CHL), Alibaba (40% owned by Yahoo), Research in Motion (RIMM).

• China Energy. Whether it is in house "old energy" or alternative, China needs it. With gas prices just 1/3 of what we pay in the West, consumption will be rampant. But oil alone won't be enough. The players: PetroChina (PTR), CNOOC Ltd. (CEO), Suntech Power (STP), Yingli Green Energy (YGE).

• E-commerce. Yep, it's a hokey term that should've died out a decade ago, according to every bear and naysayer. And yet, Amazon has proven them all wrong, and there will continue to sprout new ideas for retail over the internet, save for Fed intervention and online taxes. Couple e-tailing (yes, another late '90s tag) with China's growing economy (up 11.9% in Q2), and there's no end in sight. Yet. The players: Amazon (AMZN), eBay (EBAY). X Factor: China still doesn't have a reliable, trusted system of online payment. PayPal China (eBay) anyone?

• Search/Advertising. Of course. The possibilities are endless in the West, but in China, we're seeing just the tip of the iceberg. (I am loaded to the gills with cheesy cliches this morning.) BIDU at $324? Scary to think it, but imagine this: 12% of China still has no internet access, and BIDU is fully protected by the government. So much growth is possible, no, probable, which means Baidu's stock is still in its first inning. The players: Baidu (BIDU), Google (GOOG).

• Fast Food. Huh? Larger salaries mean more disposable income in China. Inflation? A big factor, but not so much when families have only one child. Single children will spend, hang out at Starbucks, eat at KFC and McDonald's. I see no end in sight to the fattening of New China, Mexico, India, Brazil... The players: Yum! Foods (YUM), McDonald's (MCD), Coca-Cola (KO), PepsiCo (PEP), Starbucks (SBUX).

• Macao Gaming. Chinese are notorious gamblers, even taking discount junkets from the mainland to Macao. What Wynn Resorts and Las Vegas Sands have done in Macao is utterly unmatched anywhere in the world. So much for Mao's version of communism. The players: Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Las Vegas Sands (LVS).

• Handhelds. The demand is insane, though I don't really relate to it. A cellphone is all I want and need, but the rest of the world is koo-koo for gadget-loaded handhelds that tell us what time it is, who's calling, where we are, while giving us songs to listen to and directions to get here and there. The players: Research in Motion (RIMM), Apple (AAPL), Garmin (GRMN), Navteq (NVT), Trimble (TRMB), Nokia (NOK), Google (GOOG), Synaptics (SYNA).

More later. I'm gonna hit the sack and try to get up in 90 minutes.