Up, down, all around since August bottom

I formed a mock portfolio a few months back, not long after realizing that Aug. 16 was the bottom of the initial subprime mortage fiasco. Now, more than three months later, it's easy to see whether the current market is really doing as horribly as the media presents. So here's what I found, comparing the intra-day low of Aug. 16 versus Wedneday's closing prices.

Then versus Now

Apple: then 111, now 168, +50.9%
Amazon: then 70, now 79, +13.8%
Crocs: then 44, now 38, -12.1%
Garmin: then 86, now 91, +5.5%
Research in Motion: then 61, now 111, +80.4%
Baidu: then 161, now 307, +91.2%
CNOOC: then 92, now 159, +71.9%
Chipotle Mexican Grill: then 92, now 123, +34.1%
Flowserve: then 62, now 90, +45.6%
Google: then 480, now 660, +37.5%
Blue Nile: then 71, now 74, +4.4%
Nintendo: then 52, now 69, +33.9%
Under Armor: then 54, now 46, -14.1%

As a whole, with an evenly weighted investment in each of these stocks, they would be 34.1% in the positive. Even with the horrendous selloff of the past two weeks, 34% up isn't bad at all for three months of holding. Doesn't mean I'm going to return to a buy-and-never-sell practice, but the numbers appear to be more healthy than I had imagined. Far more.

Swoons and a margin call

Today, finally, is a good day in the green, up 10% or so. In the meantime, I sold my itty-bitty positions in McDonald's and Under Armor today. I bought these stocks a few months back for my 11-year-old nephew as a way to show him how buying what you know is a good thing, and he's bullish on both, especially Under Armor. Well, UA was obviously horrible, sinking from the 61-65 levels I bought it at. The bloated P/E was a real indicator of where the Co was as a retail stock, plus the huge insider selling was blatantly arrogant. McDonald's on the other hand is a fine Co and I'll be buying that back for my nephew in the near future, long before UA. I'm not anti-UA. I just see major bloating, and the market crushed the stock.

The sales were key for me because of (I saw today) a small margin call. I could have avoided this problem if I had

a. Sold my CROX, LULU and STV (and other stocks) at or near the top
b. Avoided buying speculative stocks like LFT (an IPO)
c. Avoided buying more BIDU and AAPL on the way down

I could've waited and bought BIDU and AAPL earlier today when the market rebounded from the horrendous 5-day slide. I will stay on top of this margin call, of course. Took 20 minutes to get through to someone on the phone at E*Trade, but he said that it's possible that if my account continues to rise before Thursday's margin call deadline, they may not require me to sell any shares. "It's a mystery," Jeff said.

Hmm. Well, I sold the MCD and UA shares today, which could help if the funds settle quickly. You know, if I were a genius and sold near the top before the recent crash, I'd have an account worth about twice what it is today ... and today's session would've been a buying spree to da max. Instead, my account is just getting back to 60% of what it was at its top. Moral of the story: It's a trader's market. I am fully aware of this now. No longer in denial.

When the next dip begins, I'll sell 50 to 75% of my stuff, even AAPL. Then I won't dread looking at my account or at the market action next time. Yesterday (Monday) I didn't even look at my account. First time in a long, long time. Even today, I haven't activated my MarketTrader tool to watch trading in real time. It was good. I had no buying power anyway. But what I must always remember, however, is that I always have selling power.

I have always been faithful to the point of blind faith. Back in the day, when we were 13-year-old comic book collectors, it was me and Peter who loved to read the comics and learned to appreciate great stories. It was Jae who paid superficial attention to the content and really, really knew how to hustle other kids — especially the younger ones enamored with flashy cover art and infamous superhero names like X-Men and Frank Miller's Daredevil — to buy his comics. He was a GREAT salesman who knew what appealed to the masses. He'd have the same comics on the same table as Peter. Jae would have a higher price, but his loud, busy mouth and great salesmanship got him the big profits. He would sell sell sell and make money.

I hold and lose huge profits. The concept of selling, somewhere in my subconscious, is probably that it's a form of "giving up," which is absolutely preposterous. I'm learning to sell to avoid losses, which I did with many stocks in the past month. But the concept of selling to LOCK IN profits is still novel, and I must embrace it.

I realize that my honesty here can and probably will open me up to criticism, but I'm the first to admit that knowledge is key, and I intend to learn from my mistakes, to learn how to sell. It's psychology, not so much the mechanics — a 7% stop-loss is sensible to me. What's crucial now is to overcome the losing mindset, the denial that any stock is going lower ... and lower ... and lower. Hitting that sell button is equally as important as investing long term, if not more. I plan to do both.

Pruning the barren pupule tree

Sold CHL (loss of $7/share), LULU (gain of $2/share) and YGE (even). Just too much unpredictability and negativity to hold these babies, even with small positions. I'm not going to wait for these stocks to bleed to death. YGE is actually hanging tough, and had been early in the day. But I will stay out of these. I'm still holding BIDU, MCD, NTDOY, UA, RIMM, AAPL and VMW. MCD and UA are for my nephew.

There's no doubt in my mind. With the Fed out of rate cuts and the US economy slowing, our market is bearish and getting more so by the day. Companies like Crocs and Under Armor are raising guidance and getting pummeled. The only stocks seemingly resistant to all of the financials (Citigroup) and housing subprime crap and economic slowdown today are Google and Baidu. Blue Nile, which reports tomorrow, is up 3.1%. McDonald's is up fractionally.

Other than that, I'm just relieved to prune those stocks out of my folio. When the market turns, I'll be back in.

Baidu launches into orbit

Baidu is up $20 with a couple of hours left in today's session. Quite a reversal from yesterday's after-hours trading when BIDU plunge to $300, then finished up at $320. So what was the deal yesterday after hours? The earnings report was positive, if devoid of huge surprises. Was it panic selling? Market makers manipulating their shorts? Maybe.

I'm just glad to have a few more shares of a Co I've touted for some time. Now if I only could turn back time and buy shares of CNOOC. How I pounded the table back then when the P/E was 11 and the PPS was 90. I never bought a share. I didn't know oil stocks could be so dot.com-bubblicious.

What else is up this morning? Just about everything. Even though there were naysayers who cautioned about Countrywide Financial's earnings report and how it could dampen the market, nope, nothing bad happened. The market already anticipated a mess, and then Countrywide was basically positive. Wow.

Under Armor continues its ascent, trading up 6% to 60. UA was 54 a few days ago, but I held on, not for me, but for my nephew. He wanted some shares of one of his favorite companies, and I obliged.

Crocs was at 65 yesterday, well below its 10-day moving averages. A clear buy signal for a true 'box' stock. Well, CROX is now above 68 again. VMware is pulling back to no surprise. I'm waiting for lululemon to finish building this new base at 50 and rocket again. Might be waiting until they announce earnings in several weeks from now. No matter. When (and if) the Fed announces another rate cut next week, retailers will ride the bounce nicely once again.

Under Armor may be under bought

Under Armor may confound some longs, but with a forward P/E roughly twice that of Crocs, the neutral investor has an easy choice. Warm weather this fall may have an effect on sales of the product, but in the long run, UA is in a niche of its own.

Pupule says: The recent mini-rally has pushed UA (60.17) over its 10-day SMA (59.67), but it is still below its 50-day SMA (62.74). True believers can get a good price here.

Bargain hunt yields few catches

No surprise here. The market is off the charts (yes, I will milk a cliche if it is true), so I don't expect to find any of my A and A- grade stocks to turn up as buys here.

My A graders — Amazon, Apple, Crocs, Garmin and Research in Motion — all bumped up on Friday. Only one is relatively cheap: Garmin (GRMN). Thanks to the panic sell-off last week, GRMN closed at 103.71 on Friday, well below its 10-day SMA (103.91) and just a tad above its 50-day SMA (102.64). CROX, meanwhile, closed at 67.70 for a meager gain on Friday. The stock is just a bit over its 10-day SMA (66.51) and far above its 50-day SMA (58.56).

The A- graders are a mixed bag as far as bargains go. Blue Nile (NILE) closed Friday at 94.32, below its 10-day SMA (95.84), but still high over its 50-day SMA (86.37). eBay closed at 38.75, below its 10-day SMA (39.15), but I'm not tempted because of the lack of real policing by the Co of rip-off sellers (my personal experience).

lululemon athletica (LULU) is tapering down from an all-time high. At 44.88, it is nearing its 10-day SMA (43.67). At 105.90, Potash (POT) is also hovering near its 10-day SMA (104.86). Synaptics (SYNA) closed Friday at 47, below its 10-day SMA (47.57). Under Armor, meanwhile, continues to drag. The stock closed Friday at 58.90, below its 10-day SMA (59.74) and 50-day SMA (62.53). UA is the only stock among my A and A- graders that has a lower 10-day average than 50-day average. If I were a doctor, my diagnosis of UA would require a stay in the hospital. The stock has been sick for awhile now, and with a high P/E and a history of mixed earnings results, buyers are staying away.

Pupule says: GRMN, NILE and SYNA are buys. UA is a solid buy if you like the Co. I like my other stocks too much to put anything into UA right now.

Pit stops today for growth kings

Wow. No posts here for three days. Maybe I have a life after all. Some passing thoughts on a supposedly down day.

• Georges Yared is right. Again. Just a few days ago, he wrote that AAPL's life below $150 per share was coming to an end soon. The stock has run from the 130s to today's high of 150.22 in a short time. Yared has been a persistent bull when it comes to certain growth stocks. He's been right. Bull's eye right, and that's why I continue to absorb his writing.

• BIDU continues to fluctuate today. With the NAS flitting below and above neutral in this first hour, BIDU dropped to 295 before rallying back to 300. An insane run for a stock that hit a subprime-sludge low of 161 on August 16. I can't help but think that a lot of money has gone to BIDU stock because a) it's in China, and b) it's a search engine. And that's it. Profits are nothing special. All Baidu really has is huge growth margins in a country of 1.3 billion people, most of whom still don't have computers. That's where cellphone web access comes into play, and that's why I wonder why BIDU is taking so long to anchor itself in that realm. Chinese access the web more by cellphone than computer. It's not even close. I just wonder if Alibaba, a major IM company that's 40% owned by Yahoo, will ever open an ADR in the states.

• CROX is running up again. A lot of bulls are expecting the Co to share robust mid-Q3 numbers during a presentation this morning. The stock broke through the 60 barrier on Monday with major volume.

• Among the small group of stocks on the plus side early in the day was GRMN, which hit an all-time high of 120. Stock pulled back and is now at 117.58. The stock has doubled since late May, and I wonder if a split is imminent. I'm not a big fan of splits, but I don't avoid them, either.

• LULU has been sitting for much of the morning at 39. When Cramer pumped the stock last week with a long segment, LULU made a couple of runs to the 41-plus range. I think LULU sits in this range until earnings, but you never know...

• MCD is consolidating after last week's magical run off the announcement of a 50% increase in the dividend. I got a few shares, mainly for my nephew (he loves the chicken snack wrap and has loved McDonald's all his life), but I don't see another run in the shares until earnings. Maybe the Co can make a deal with Apple and give away iTune songs in the McCafe and at the drive-thru. So wacky that it could happen.

• NILE had a couple of runs to 105-106 recently, but pulled back to 99-100 both times. Today, the stock is locked mostly in a 98-100 range, taking a breather since its run from 80 during the past two weeks. No complaints here. I'm just glad I got a little piece at 80. Sure, I wish I'd gotten more at 80 (or even 75), but this was pre-Fed rate meeting, so what I did (by my standards) was spooky. The older I get, the more adverse I am to risk. It's the dang truth and I can't deny it.

• RIMM broke into positive territory before much of the market and has kept its gains. I wonder how sales are going in China.

• Another favorite of my nephew's, Under Armor, hasn't been much in this rally. UA is down 1.2% to 63.92. I just think the forward P/E (47) is still a bear argument that a lot of bulls have bought. I can't argue against it when CROX is trading at a forward P/E of 23.

• Nintendo is forming a base here above 60, much to the relief of longs like me who had foolishly bought more shares at these levels. Though I won't be buying any stock at these lofty prices, it's reassuring to know that my A and A- stock picks have great reasons that more than justify their valuations. The Wii is still a killer app, as is the DS, and that won't change going into Christmas season.

I love you, I hate you: Well, well. Focus Media has finally cleared up its Q2 filing mess and the stock is up 15.4% so far. I would be angry about this, as a former FMCN long, but I'm past that. At some point, this is still going to be a piece of Chinese advertising that I want, but I need a bargain price first.

And speaking of China, Yingli Green Energy is up 3.7% to 25.64. The whole oil patch craziness is intriguing. Oil prices go up, CNOOC Ltd., PetroChina and Exxon go up, and so do the solar/clean energy stocks. I'm just surprised, with the U.S. economy slowing, that I haven't kept my toes in China's waters.

Bargain shopping yields 3 fair prices

Flat market today. A pause to refresh. Pit stop. Calm before the storm. Whatever cliche works for you, the next question is, where does the market go from here? Do stocks simply ramp up or will the market just tread sideways until earnings?

I'm guessing it will be the latter. U.S. economy slowing, global economy still forging ahead. Speaking of the latter, I'm surprised with my lack of China exposure in my portfolio. At one time, I had small pieces of Focus Media and Sina. I got out of FMCN because of its internal accounting issues. The Co still hasn't reported Q2 results, and Nasdaq hasn't settled their situation. SINA is China's top portal, and I would feel OK about stepping back in at a healthy entry point.

Baidu? At these levels, no. No way. A trader's fantasy, though. Now I want to look at what may be in the bargain bin of A and A- grade stocks.

Amazon 89. Leveling off and volume has declined for the past three days since the Fed rate cuts. After blowout Q2 earnings, Georges Yared wrote that the mutual funds would be marching into this stock. Then the market got skittish and AMZN went to 69 on sub-prime meltdown day (August 16). Well, 69 to 89 in a month ain't too shabby. The stock is trading slightly above its 10-day SMA (87). Jeff Bezos rules online retailing, and someday, Outer Space. The stock usually trades like the black sheep of the A grade family. Lags behind, then explodes. Pupule says: Wait.

Apple 140. Down for a second day in a row, just fractionally, on lower volume. Still trading above its moving averages; 10-day SMA is 137. Yared writes that the days of AAPL below 150 are numbered. I remember thinking that the stock was stuck in the 90s forever. That was in April. And then I let go of my shares despite my complete and utter belief about the iPhone and the Co. Never again, never again. Pupule says: Wait.

Crocs 56. The effect of nationwide reports about the sandals and escalator accidents is beginning to subside. Though CROX was up 2% today to 56.45, it continues to trade below its 10-day SMA (57) and EMA (56.99). Today's gain came on lower volume — there's not much conviction on either side of the fence right now. Is this a great buying opportunity? Pupule says: Buy small.

Garmin 106. Stock was down nearly 1% today on lower volume. GRMN (106.75) is a hair above its 10-day SMA (106.44) and EMA (106.25). Like all the A graders, this is a great Co that is hard to resist. Pupule says: Buy small.

Research in Motion 90. Down 1.4% today, but well above its moving averages. 10-day SMA is 86, EMA is 87. Pupule says: Wait.

Baidu 277. The stock was up again today, fractionally. BIDU has traded higher in nine of the last 10 sessions. Insane. The stock is at nosebleed levels. The 10-day SMA is 242 and the 10-day EMA is 249. Pupule says: Wait.

Blue Nile 99. Bit of a surprise that NILE is holding up with strength here. Strength? Yesterday, the stock hit 98 and did a free-fall to 91. Looked like the end of a nice ride for me (from 80). But NILE gathered itself and longs pushed it back up to 95. Today, with continued solid volume, NILE hit 100 briefly before recording an all-time closing high. Stock has been up in eight of the last nine sessions and is trading far above moving averages. 10-day SMA is 86; 10-day EMA is 89. Pupule says: Wait.

Chipotle Mexican Grill 110. Down 1.8% after five up sessions in a row. Volume today was low, but the stock is still above its 10-day SMA (97) and 10-day EMA (107). Pupule says: Wait.

CNOOC Ltd. 148. Oil hit a new high at $83 per barrel, but CNOOC dipped 3.5% today. Inevitable after zooming from a low of 92 one month ago to a high of 155 yesterday. Still a ways to go before my favorite oil/natural gas stock is buyable. 10-day SMA: 134. 10-day EMA: 137. Pupule says: Wait.

Flowserve 77. The opportunity to buy this pump parts company was a week ago, when I wrote about its discounted price. FLS is finally joining the party, and in a big way. Down a skosh today, but still expensive. 10-day SMA: 72. 10-day EMA: 74. Pupule says: Wait.

Google 552. Like NILE and FLS, GOOG was terribly oversold not so long ago. Since disappointing the street with Q2 results (and only because the Co invested in a ton of new employees mostly in China), the stock languished until this week. Today, GOOG was up another 1% on steady volume. In fact, the stock has been up seven of the last eight trading days, and volume on that down day was miniscule. 10-day SMA: 529. 10-day EMA: 533. Pupule says: Wait. When Baidu cools off, so will Google.

lululemon athletica 39. Another day, another all-time high for LULU (41-plus mid-day). Volume was substantially down today, but today's increase (3.6%) defied the market's down day. Four up days in a row, lower volume ... might be time for the stock to take a breather. Then again, tomorrow's Friday, and some of the big houses might want to furnish their rooms with sparkling new lululemon goodies. Trading well above its 10-day averages. Pupule says: Wait.

McDonald's 54. A nice, reliable way to play China's booming economy. Mickey D was down 1% today, but volume was weak after several huge days on the upside since the Co's announcement of a 50% dividend hike. I sit in Starbucks, but I invest in Mickey D. 10-day SMA: 53. 10-day EMA: 50. Pupule says: Wait.

Nintendo 63. The stock languished in the 50s for a six-week stretch, doing its best CROX imitation. Now that the Co has announced increased supply of the Wii console for the US this holiday season, there's reason to be bullish again. Apparently, longs didn't wait, pushing the stock up in four out of five days. Today's 1.1% decline was due, and the trend is up, but it's better to be patient. 10-day SMA: 59. 10-day EMA: 60. Pupule says: Wait.

Potash 98. Instead of slowing momentum, Potash saw volume increase in today's massive 5.1% run-up. This stock never ceases to amaze me. I find myself writing the same things about POT that I did about CEO. 10-day SMA: 90. 10-day EMA: 91. Pupule says: Waaaait.

Synaptics 46. Huge move up came to a halt yesterday. Today, the stock sold off 3%. 10-day SMA: 44. 10-day EMA: 45. Close but no cigar. I like touchscreen, I like this Co, but ... Pupule says: Wait.

Under Armor 63. Having a high valuation (forward P/E of 48 versus CROX's forward P/E of 22) doesn't help UA sometimes. Down 2.9% today, five down days in the last six and nine downers in the last 12. Co needs at least one more blowout quarter to silence the bears, shorts and doubters. Until then, the stock will continue to snooze. UA (63.34) is trading below its 10-day EMA (63.60) and just above its 10-day SMA (63.26). Pupule says: Price is reasonable, but buy very small if at all.

Best buys

IBD luvs Crocs and Maria does too

One of the more buoyant and fun interviews in some time came a few minutes about on CNBC's Closing Bell. Ken Shreve of Investor's Business Daily extolled the virtues of five robust growth companies, all of whom are attracting major attention from mutual funds.

Shreve kind of surprised me. He looks like your basic journalist, relatively conservative. Then he started off with Crocs. Shreve talked about the doubling of mutual fund money in the stock during the past year. How the Co beat earnings expectations for six quarters in a row. How the return on equity is more than 50 percent. How Crocs has a good management team.

Aye, aye, captain. I've agreed with these facts for many months now. But Maria Bartiromo took the cake. She mentioned that she likes Crocs. When Dylan Ratigan asked if she wears them, she said, "Yes, I just love that product." He kept on, asking if she wears them on the weekends. She said yes, then blushed and covered her face with her script.

Haa... I'm wearing Caymans right now. I'm not ashamed to say it, either. Shreve also mentioned Navteq, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Under Armor and Shanda Interactive as strong magnets for mutual funds.

"You don't see 800, 900 mutual funds owning these stocks. They're just getting started, so there's more room for fund ownership," Shreve said. (My goodness, has this guy been reading this blog?) "Shanda is one of many China-based stocks where a fundamental story is driving the performance," he added.

I think Maria should model her Crocs tomorrow.

Up, down, happy frown

The rest of the market went up today. My porftolio stayed down. Apple down. Crocs barely up. Nintendo neutral. My tidbits of Under Armor (down slightly) and Baidu (up) don't affect the sum much. I'm waiting for a chance to get my A grade stock picks at a reasonable price, but it just ain't happening. Time to do a little studying.

Amazon 86. The stock jumped 3.5% today, keeping the AMZN rally alive and well. After looking dead in the 70s for such a long time, it's nice to see longs on the winning side of this growth story. Chinese are astute shoppers, at least the ones i know, and I have great optimism for the Co's growth in China. At this price, though, the stock is far above its 13-, 50- and 200-day moving averages (exponential and simple). Pupule says: Wait.

Apple 135. Low volume today as profit-takers overtook the stock on a -0.89% day. You know, the stock moved up yesterday from 131 to 138 on the announcement of the one-millionth iPhone sold. No other real reason or catalyst. That's life with Apple. At 135, AAPL is touching its 13-day MA, which makes it interesting. Do as I say, not as I did (bought at 135 and 144). Pupule says: Buy small, if at all.

Crocs 57. The stock is trading at 23 times next year's earnings. Compare that to Under Armor, which trades at 50 times. The only reason, and this is my gut feeling, that CROX isn't above 60 is that there is extreme enthusiasm for the Co's great fundamentals and growth on one hand, and extreme pessimism and hatred of the products on the other. Practically every day there's blogger or columnist who scribes his immense hatred of the poofy, hole-ridden Cayman sandals. Never mind the Co's robust future. Just blind hatred. That's why it's taking Crocs more time to ride up than it really should. Power to the patient. The stock is trading at its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Buy small.

Garmin 106. One of my fantasies is buy all the Garmin shares I possibly can, stuff them into a white pillowcase, fall asleep, and then wake up with an extra pillowcase filled with cool Garmin GPS stuff and hard cash. The stock jumped 2.4% today. I keep waiting for a bargain, but the stock drifts above its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Keep waiting.

Research in Motion 83. For a moment (yesterday), RIMM traded at its 13-day moving averages. Today, up nearly 1% and above the MA again. Pupule says: Wait.

Baidu 227. August 16. BIDU traded at 161, below its 13- and 50-day MA. It took the stock just three sessions to explode over both averages. It hasn't touched them since. Today's 4.1% run doesn't help. Can't say I'm surprised. As the U.S. economy slows, more and more investors and traders will look to China as a safe haven. Sorta safe. Pupule says: Wait, wait, wait.

Blue Nile 80. I picked up a few shares of the world's favorite online jewelry company today. I had a buy order on Friday at $75.50, but I pulled it when there were some complications in my trading account. Well, I regret it now. And yet, at 80, NILE is trading at its 13-day MA (and above the 50-day averages). All that insider selling kept the stock half buried for the past week. Funny how you can find jewels by digging a little. Pupule says: Buy small.

Chipotle Mexican Grill 103. My job took me to a press conference at a new place in Waikiki called Senor Frog's yesterday. I wasn't planning to stay afterward, but the food was free, the company was good, and man, it was worth it. Senor Frog's has only two U.S. locations, with plans to open another in Las Vegas. Other locations include Cancun. There's a pattern here, isn't there? If CMG is as good as Senor Frog's, I might be a believer. From what I know, CMG is more of a fast-food style than Senor Frog's, making fast, fresh Mexican food better than anyone. Anyway, CMG the stock was below its 13-day averages yesterday. Today, with the 3% bump up, the stock is above the MA. Pupule says: Wait.

CNOOC Ltd. 127. This stock is all over creation, goofier than a penny stock if you look at the chart. I still lament the major discount of a month ago, when CEO traded as low as 92 — below its 200-day MA. At 127 (up 2.8% today), it is way too expensive. Pupule says: Wait.

Flowserve 70. Up 1.9% today, now touching its 50-day MA. This stock has struggled and struggled for respect. Though its fundamentals and growth numbers are as good as most of my A- picks, the stock has closed above its 13-day MA only once since August 8. Pupule says: Strong buy.

Google 521. Another stock that can't get the motor started for long. Up 1.3% today, still trading within its 13-day MA. Will Google lose in China? That question should be banned. Pupule says: Buy.

Nintendo 57. In a rut for two whole months now. Why? Weak dollar. Strong yen. The stock doubled between November and June. Blah blah blah. Try out the Wii. This baby will sell like hotcakes, pancakes, wedding cakes, cake with coconut frosting, fudge syrup and a cherry on top, to boot. The DS is addicting. It is a legal drug that, unlike the Wii, can be carried near and far. I still think The Sims™ is coming to the Wii sooner than later. The stock is at its 13-day MA, the Co said last month that expanded production is not possible (yeth, that sucketh, I know), and the Co still won't allow the shares in Tokyo to be sold in regular increments. A minimum buy of Nintendo stock on the Tokyo Stock Exchange is 100 shares, or $41,000. Oh well. Pupule says: Buy small.

Potash 89. Up 2.1% today. Damn, did anyone really know that a fertilizer stock would be ballistic like this? This is a pre-split 267. Holy crapoli. At this price, the stock is above its MA. Pupule says: Wait.

Under Armor 62. Down a skosh (-0.37%) today. With a forward P/E of 50, seems like nobody is willing to fork up for the expensive price of the stock. UA is trading below its 13-day MA now, trending toward its 50-day MA. Of all the A- picks, I'm least bullish on UA, which has a history of hit-and-miss execution on earnings. Seems like a logical buyout for Nike. How about a merger with Crocs and their secret-recipe sensation Croslite? That would give Nike a serious run for its money. Pupule says: Buy.

Best buys

Where does the maze lead us?

Subprime mortgages down the toidy. Job reports reflect major economic slowdown. Are things really as bad as they seem?

Unemployment is 4.5% and growth may slow to 2%. Meanwhile, growth in China is 11.9%. Hmm...

I'm far from being an alarmist, and though I refrained from buying today, sniffing around for bargains is never a fruitless pursuit. Though several of my fundamentally sound growth favorites — A and A- grade stocks — are at reasonable prices, I'm going to wait until Monday at the earliest to enter. If there's another dip early Monday, my spider-sense will be tingling.

Here's to the hunt.

Apple 131. Yesterday, it was the iPhone price cut. Today, the jobs report. In just three days, AAPL has sunk from 145 to an intra-day low today of 130. A shortie's paradise. At 131, AAPL is below its one-year 13- and 50-day simple and exponential moving averages. Pupule says: Buy small, wait for more discounting.

Amazon 84. Even with the dip, AMZN is trading far above its moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

Crocs 56. Actually, 56.92. Since its blowout Q2 earnings report and raised guidance, CROX has traded mostly in the 55-60 range, but the market's vulnerabilities have opened the stock up to major dips. At 56, CROX is at its 13-day moving averages, but patience could reap bargain prices. Pupule says: Buy small and be patient.

Garmin 105. The stock came down and touched its 13-day MA today (102), but at 105 is a skosh too high. Love the Co, but the stock isn't in line yet. Pupule says: Wait.

Research in Motion 80. The Blackberry Cult makes more and more sense to me, yes, me ... a guy who didn't have a cellphone until 1999 (work requirement). I didn't had a cellphone with photo capability until a few months ago, and I still haven't touched an iPhone or any other newfangled fancy thingamajig. (I can't believe that I walked into the Apple store last week and didn't even look at an iPhone.) And yet, with everything that the Crackberry can do, I can understand the addiction. Beats carrying around a PC. As for the stock, it now touches its 13-day averages. Pupule says: Buy small, wait for big discounts.

Baidu 213. With the U.S. economy slowing to a snail's pace, China is obviously the place to be. However, at 213, BIDU is too pricey. Far above its moving averages, but trending closer. Pupule says: Wait.

Blue Nile 75. The insider selling has compounded the stock's problems. I'm still bullish based on the company's growth rates and fundamentals, as well as its first-mover position in the online jewelry pocket. At 75, NILE is at a major discount, far below its 13-day MA and almost below its 50-day averages. Pupule says: Strong buy.

Chipotle Mexican Grill 101. Stock is now touching its 13-day averages, far above 50-day MA. Pupule says: Wait.

CNOOC Ltd. 122. The stock barely moved despite today's 250-point drop on the Dow. At 122, much too pricey, well above all its moving averages. If you got in at 92-110 in mid-August, you are a genius. Pupule says: Wait, wait, wait.

Flowserve 69. Pumps and meters are not sexy, and that's the only reason why this brilliant company is trading at its 50-day MA, and far below its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Strong buy.

Google 519. Recent gains have evaporated, but the overall picture is bright. China. Cellphones. Cellphones in China. The Chinese rely on cellphones for almost all their internet access. Google isn't beloved by citizens of the Middle Kingdom, so the Co simply BUYS the love. It is working. The stock is trading between its 13- and 50-day MA. Pupule says: Buy cautiously, conservatively.

Nintendo 58. The stock was between its 13- and 50-day MA for a couple of days. Not now. At 58, NTDOY.PK is above its averages. Pupule says: Wait.

Potash 87. The stock is finally back to earth, sorta. At 86, POT is touching its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Buy small.

Under Armor 63. One of the few stocks in the green today. At 63, UA is scraping its 13-day MA, well above its 50-day MA. Forward P/E is 50, compared to CROX's 23. Guess which stock I prefer? Pupule says: Buy cautiously.

Today's best buys

Bear turns into a Crocs bull

A good analysis on the long side of CROX ... from a former doubter.

Seeking Alpha: Crocs: Better Late than Never

At $59, this gives forward PE of 30 (2007) and 23 (2008). Now I don't purport to know what a good valuation is for this company, since I am not sure what exactly to compare it to. But its growth rate in the recent past is certainly well in excess of 50%, and I'd argue the near future could continue to see 30-40% growth.

Let's compare it to Under Armour for example - Under Armour is actually a smaller company than Crocs by revenue (surprised me too), with very similar growth rates on the top line. At $65, it's valued at 65x 2007 estimates and 50x 2008 estimates. Very expensive.

While the topic is CROX, here's Rick Aristotle Munarriz's latest stance on the Co and stock.

Munarriz: No, the Clothes Don't Have Holes

Always interesting to see that one of Motley Fool's top writers continues to have a fair, bullish analysis on CROX. When the new year started, Motley Fool's members voted CROX as the worst stock of 2007.

Bargain Bin shopping time

It is nearly mid-afternoon (1:30 pm Eastern time) on a deceptively quiet afternoon in the marketplace. Do you know where your stocks are? It's time for another look at the bargain bin and see if any of my A and A- grade stock picks happen to be there.

Apple 134. AAPL is down 11 points off its recent high, 22 points above its mortage meltdown low of three weeks ago. Four huge days up were met by the selloff yesterday and today, triggered by the Co's announcement of lower iPhone prices, but mostly (I think) a lot of profit-taking. Yesterday's volume was major (83 million shares), but today pullback is on just 42 million so far. Now that the stock has dropped close to its 13-day simple and exponential moving averages, selling will dry up soon enough. The iPod Touch is a whole new realm of techno ecstacy. It will be quite a merry Christmas this year. Pupule says: Wait a little more.

Amazon 84. On a roll, up for a fourth day in a row. Well off its high of 88 and far above its moving averages. Intriguing to see how much and how soon AMZN will make inroads in the Middle Kingdom. Pupule says: Wait, wait, wait.

Crocs 57. Downgraded to 'hold' by Zacks today, the stock is up 3.3% anyway. Yesterday, CROX traded at a low of 54.48, well below its 13-day moving averages. Today's gain means the stock is right at its 13-day averages. Pupule says: Buyable, but not a bargain.

Garmin 106. I keep waiting for this baby to pull back to a decent price, but it just won't. Trading at an all-time high now, but decreasing volume says that GRMN may be ready for a breather. Pupule says: Worth waiting for.

Research in Motion 83. Two days of declines were met with today's fractional gain (so far). trading above its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Wait.

Baidu 219. Uh-uh. Today's miniscule pullback in China's favorite search engine is on much lower volume (after two days of major upside volume.) BIDU is a trader's fantasy, an investor's temptation. Pupule says: Wait.

Blue Nile 79. Insider selling has pissed off some longs and fed the bears. Here, NILE is well below its 13-day MA and near its 50-day MA. After significant volume on two down days (Tuesday and yesterday), today's minor gains come on mediocre volume. I'm not convinced the selloff is done, but I wouldn't be shy either. Pupule says: Buy.

Chipotle Mexican Grill 104. CMG is pulling back, but the heights here are still dizzying. Pupule says: Wait.

CNOOC Ltd. 122. For so long, CEO was available at true bargain prices. From August 10 to 22, the stock traded below its 13-day MA, and on several of those days, was below its 50-day MA. Now it's just too expensive even without today's 2.5% gain. Pupule says: Wait.

Flowserve 71. FLS is trading below its 50-day SMA, still a decent price. Pupule says: Not a bargain, but the price is right.

Google 523. GOOG is down more than 4 bucks (less than 1%) so far today, but the gains of the two previous days leave the stock above all moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

Nintendo 55. Today, NTDOY.PK is trading up at about 58, which leaves the stock right at its 13-day moving averages. Yesterday's price was better, of course. Pupule says: Buy small, if anything.

Potash 89. Pricey here. POT hasn't been a bargain since August 21. Pupule says: Wait.

Under Armor 63. Short interest in UA was 50% just one month ago, but is down to "only" 32%. Today's 2.1% pullback brings the stock below its 13-day moving averages. Pupule says: Buy cautiously, not in bulk.

Today's best buys

A bite of forbidden fruit

I was a bad boy today. I broke discipline, chased a stock (sorta) and bought it while it sits high above its moving averages. Naughty, naughty.

That's what Apple can do to me. I sold my shares long (a few months) ago at $93 and regretted it ever since. Call it a longing for a lost love. It was my fault, babe. I should never have left you. I'll treat you like a princess now. Please take me back. Yeah, it's that tacky, that emotional. OK, let's just say I've been using Apple products long enough to know that I trust the Co. Yeah, I would've bought at 111 two weeks and one day ago. Complete, utterly cultish faith.

But I didn't have dry powder then. I did today. And after I bought my nephew his beloved piece (another one) of Under Armor — yes, he wears it almost daily — I scoured my A and A- grade stock picks for bargains. The rest of my A graders were far above their MAs. Some of my A- stocks were reasonable. Flowserve was up like the rest of the market, but within its moving averages. So was (is) Google. Even Blue Nile was just a skosh above its 13-day MAs. At 84, NILE is well below its high of 98.

I kept pining for Apple, though. The stock is off its high (149), Monday is Labor Day, which leaves only Tuesday as a possible ramp up to Wednesday's probable introduction of new iPods. Or not. I find myself thinking more like a trader than an investor. I have no plans to trade AAPL. If the stock dips on Tuesday, maybe I'll get more. Or maybe I'll stick with discipline and shop for a reasonable price in NILE.

CEO would've been a good buy yesterday at 116, but it gapped to 122 before the opening bell. Crazy behavior for an oil and gas Co, but I've come to expect that out of CEO. I find myself as interested in the geopolitics surrounding China's No. 2 oil/gas producer as anything else. Still don't own a share.

Apple? I'm halfway back to what I had before I sold in May. The fruit is good. The buy at this price, though, should be forbidden to all cult members.

Another pullback, another opportunity?

Traders are in fat city, while investors are in another sea of red. The best place to be is in cash, unless your skills are good enough to trade some while sitting on a long position.

What the FOMC talks about, whatever is read in its minutes, whatever fear there is about no fed rate cut ... until I hear that we're doomed to a recession, it's all fluctuation.

If this is another buying opportunity, then my A and A- grade stocks are worth a look. They all have solid fundamentals and excellent growth. The market has tended to sell off for days at a time, so I don't expect to find any bargains. Not yet.

AMZN down 3.1%, now 76.22
Here, the stock has returned in the vicinity of its 13- and 50-day simple and exponential moving averages, but not in an ideal range. Getting close, though. Pupule says: Wait.

AAPL down 4.1%, now $126
The stock is in a fairly good place now, right in the midst of its SMA and EMA. Could AAPL fall to $111 as it did two weeks ago? Of course. This is a stupid market, but one that must be respected. I'd go in cautiously, if anything. Pupule says: Buy.

CROX down 4.4%, now $57
Since dipping to $44 two Thursdays ago, the stock has zoomed up with the best of the growth babies. This is the seventh session in a row that CROX finished above its SMA and EMA. Even with today's pullback, best to be patient. I love my Crocs, but it is undeniably volatile. Be a smart shopper. Pupule says: Wait.

GRMN down 5.4%, now $96
Down four of the past five sessions. Stock now trades below its 13-day MAs. Worth watching closely. Buyable here, but a bargain could be around the corner. Pupule says: Buy.

RIMM down 4.8%, now $77
Trading just above its MAs. Patience. Pupule says: Wait.

BIDU down 5.7%, now $199
Nice pullback on slightly lower volume today. Stock is still above MAs, but moving in the right direction for a smart shopper. Pupule says: Wait.

CMG down 2.4%, now $97
Nice. The stock is now below its 13-day MAs. Avocado and dairy prices be damned, this Co is great. Pupule says: Buy.

CEO down 8.3%, now $113
That was quick. The stock was up to a mid-day high of $125 yesterday, and traders took their profits today. Can't blame them. The stock was $92 two weeks ago. Now CEO is below its 50-day SMA and moving closer to its other MAs. Inch in slowly. Pupule says: Buy.

FLS down 1.9%, now $69
Despite blowout earnings, the stock never moved above its MAs when the market bounced back last week. Trading right within its MAs now. Pupule says: Buy.

GOOG down 1.3%, now $506
Like FLS, Google wasn't hit hard today. Like FLS, the stock has a lid on it and hasn't moved above its MAs recently. Not exactly a bargain, but a fair price here. Pupule says: Buy.

NTDOY.PK down 2.7%, now $57
Coming back down to its MAs. Watch closely. Pupule says: Wait.

POT down 3.2%, now $82
More like $82.98. Starting to return to its MAs, stock is now touching its 13-day SMA and EMA. Pupule says: Buy.

UA down 1.4%, now $62
Plunging deeper, now below its 13-day MAs, but well above its 50-day MAs. Careful here. Inch in. Pupule says: Buy.

No bargains left, except for . . .

It's official in Quarryville. All of my A and A- grade stock picks are out of buying range.

From Apple to RIMM, Baidu to Under Armor, they're all on fire and too hot to touch. No, wait. There is one ... no, make that two stocks that are still trading within 13- and 50-day simple and exponential moving averages (one-year chart).

FLS 70. Flowserve, with its blowing Q2 earnings, has been somewhat slow to follow the bull run of the past week. In fact, FLS sat at 69, with barely a gain, for almost the entire day. The stock is 15% up from its bottom last Thursday, but trading below its 13- and 50-day SMA and EMA. Still a steal at this price. Pupule says: Strong buy.

GOOG 515. Even with today's modest improvement, the stock is still trading within its moving averages. There's so much action in and around the company, from wireless advertising to China inroads, that I really don't know why the stock has been relatively stagnant. It is up from the low of 480 last week, but my guess is that the big boys and retail buyers are still punishing the Co for missing Q2 estimates. So the Co spent a little more to hire quality employees in China (and elsewhere). This is good for those of us who want shares on the cheap. They might remain cheap until Q3 earnings come out. Pupule says: Buy.

Blue Nile was buyable until today, when it ran up nearly 5% to 86. I hate to miss the boat on this great young Co, but patience is key. I'll wait for a pullback. And cross my fingers.

Under Armor had a slight gain today, but its moving averages are starting to catch up. At 65, UA is well off its all-time high of 73, but today's volume was extremely light. I'll wait for the stock rather than chase it.

If Bank of America's rescue of Countrywide Financial yesterday after the market wasn't affirmation enough, I don't know what else would be. Next week should be interesting. The market is relatively calm for a change, but if the street pours into tech stocks, the gadgets might soar again. Then I might be wishing I'd picked up some Garmin and Rimm, and more Apple.

Shopping list: FLS, GOOG, NILE still good buys

For one day, I'll quit with the whining and pat myself on the back. I stuck to discipline, avoided stocks out of their moving averages and was quickly rewarded. Nintendo, which I grabbed more shares of at 55.75 yesterday, had a nice jump to 57.70 today.

Sure, NTDOY.PK simply follows the action of its big brother stock, 7974, on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. But it feels good to be under control and buy a stock at a wise entry point. It wasn't just Nintendo, of my 'Buy' and 'Strong buy' summaries yesterday, that moved up today. But first, a look at my A grade picks that were all on 'Wait' status a day ago.

AMZN 77. So many lovers, so many haters. The stock is well off both its high of 86 and last week's bottom of of 70. Like all my A and A- picks, there are great growth margins and numbers, period. Not a dud among them. But as far as an entry point goes, AMZN is still hovering above its 13- and 50-day simple and exponential moving averages. Today's pullback helps, but we're not there yet. Pupule says: Wait.

AAPL 131. What do we call investors who have ridden Apple to a million bucks? Applionaires? I don't believe in "all in" strategies. There are just too many great growth stocks to not be diversified. But AAPL is absolutely my favorite, both in a Peter Lynchian way (I've owned a PowerBook for three years) and in a fundamental way. The stock is well above its recent bottom of 111, but a long ways from its high of 148. Today's drawback is nice, but like Amazon, the stock is still floating above moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

CROX 56. The pullback from yesterday's mid-day high of 60 is no surprise. Since the blowout Q2 earnings, the stock has not gone more than three days without a pullback. When the stock declined since late July, it has pulled back for two to three days in four of five occasions, including the current drop. In other words, this ain't no surprise. Volume also declined substantially today. Is this time to buy more Crocs? It's tempting, but the answer is no. CROX is still trading well above its moving averages. Some consolidation will be good for Crocs lovers. Pupule says: Wait.

GRMN 101. Some consolidation is going on here. The stock is up nicely from last week's bottom of 86 and closing in on the all-time high of 105. Trading above its moving averages. Bite the bullet and be patient. Pupule says: Wait.

RIMM 80. Like CROX, RIMM had an astounding run in the past week, from 61 to 84. This pullback is healthy and today's volume was miniscule. Just a brief breather for the hottest runner in the marathon. And yet, the stock is ridiculously out of range, well above moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

The A graders all pulled back, like I expected. But they're all still better off waiting for than grabbing right now.

BIDU 203. Another sprinter has pulled up for a pit stop. One week ago, Baidu was trading below its 13- and 50-day MA. Now, its way above. A trader's fantasy, but for us long-term investors, 203 is much too high right now. Consolidation in effect. Pupule says: Wait.

CEO 115. In the words of the immortal philosophical giant, Homer Simpson, I say of CNOOC, "Dohhh!!" Loved the stock at its bottom (92). Loved it at 104 earlier this week. Still liked it at 109 yesterday. Today? Ouch. Owee. CEO gapped up before the market opened and held its ground. P/E of 11. Insanely nice. After last week's mid-day low of 92, CEO has gapped up each morning for the past five sessions. Still looks like a wild tech stock on the chart, but it's an oil and natural gas Co with huge upside in China. However, CEO now trades above its moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

CMG 101. Solid consolidation here. The stock went from a post-earnings high of 114 down to a mortage-meltdown bottom of 92. At 101, the stock is trading at the high end of its 13-day MA. Tiny volume today. I think the stock is ready to move again, but this ain't cheap. A great shopper hunts for cheap. Pupule says: Wait.

FLS 69. Great earnings didn't help the stock much during last week's meltdown. Still, Flowserve is rising from last week's low of 62. The high of 79 is still a long way off, and the stock is trading at the lower edge of its 13- and 50-day MA. Up today just 71¢. Pupule says: Strong buy.

GOOG 512. The company is in partnership mode in China, which is a great thing for longs. These guys don't screw around. Mistakes happen, but most of the time, Google wins the hunt. I wonder how long Baidu can fend off the Googmonster. Stock is in the midst of its 13- and 50-day MA. Pupule says: Buy.

NILE 82. Nice and easy, compared to wild and crazy when the Co announced incredible earnings for Q2. Stock is nowhere near its high of 98 and now trades near the high side of its moving averages. Gotta feeling this won't stay cheap for much longer. Pupule says: Buy.

NTDOY.PK 57. The stock has been the slowest to rebound in the past week, but today's 2% move to 57.75 makes me (and my nephew) happy. It was a fair buy yesterday when I got more shares. Today? The stock is now above its moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

POT 85. I remember listening to Potash's CEO talk on Mad Money and came away thinking ... what if ethanol bombs out in the next year? That was a few months ago, and POT blew out the Q2 estimates. The stock pulled back today, but after hitting a bottom of 71 last week, a pit stop is timely. Below its MA last week, above its MA today. Pupule says: Wait.

UA 64. Trades with some similarity to CROX. UA has traded down two days in a row, but shrinking volume is a tell. Won't surprise me if UA rockets tomorrow, but I'm not jumping in. The stock is still trading above its MA. Pupule says: Wait.

Discipline is our friend, not foe

I keep telling myself this as my favorite stocks propel out of orbit and into the stratosphere. Keep the discipline. Don't chase. Never chase.

Sure, paying too high a price for a great stock often works out in the long run. But smart shopping is never a bad thing. A great company watches every penny and isn't afraid to spend those pennies — at the right price — if sustainable growth is realistic. Same goes for me. I hope so, anyway.

Guess which stock I bought a little of today?

AAPL $133. This was a steal until yesterday. Now, it's trading above its 13- and 50-day moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

AMZN 78. Also trading above its moving averages, slow to move (as was Apple) at first when the market bounced. Pupule says: Wait.

CROX 58. My beloved Crocs, which I wear when not sleeping, and even then, my feet would not complain if I did. No, Crocs pulled back a bit today (but is now in green territory in after-hours trading) and is still out of its moving averages. That's what happens with a huge, 30% gain off of last week's rock-bottom lows. Closed at $58, but due for a dip. Pupule says: Wait.

GRMN 101. As tempting as it is to jump in when the stock is down a buck, the stock is still way above its moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

RIMM 81. And now trading above 82 in AH. The problem is that RIMM did a juggernaut move like CROX and now has to take a breather. Tempting, just like CROX and GRMN — all three raised guidance after Q2 earnings — but still best served with patience. Pupule says: Wait.

So, with all of my A grade stocks unbuyable for disciplined hands, what to do? Shop a little more, that's what.

BIDU 204. Traded at 161 four sessions ago. What a difference one week makes. Drifting high above moving averages here. Pupule says: Wait.

CEO 110. Was such a strong buy yesterday and had been since Thursday when the stock dropped to 92. At 110, CEO is now in its 13- and 50-day averages, but the bargain price is gone for now. Pupule says: Buy.

CMG 102. Stock is lagging the other A and A- picks since Thursday. Trading at its 13-day moving averages. Pupule says: Buy.

FLS 69. Great earnings but bad timing. Good for discount shoppers. Flowserve is still below its 13- and 50-day moving averages here. Pupule says: Strong buy.

GOOG 512. Nice, steady climb since Thursday, trading within its 13- and 50-day MA. Well off its all-time high of 558. So the Co spent more in Q2 to hire quality employees. Does that make Google less of a great company or just intelligent about how to best grow the country in burgeoning monlithic economies like, say, China? Pupule says: Strong buy.

NILE 81. Was slow to move when the market rebounded, but is picking up speed now. Stock trading in its 13-day MA, worth waiting for, but not a bad price here. Pupule says: Buy.

NTDOY.PK 55. Stock has struggled more than most in the past week because of weakness in the Nikkei. I scooped up a few shares here, mostly for my nephew (monthly stock "drip" from his uncle). Stock now trading between its 13- and 50-day MA. Stock closed at 55.75, 7.3% above its low of last week. That's some serious lagging compared to RIMM and CROX. Pupule says: Buy.

UA 68. After a triumphant explosion, the stock is cooling quickly and pulled back today while the rest of Nasdaq gained 31 points. Still trading above its moving averages, but I'm watching closely for a healthy entry point. Pupule says: Wait.

Growth kings rally, but bargains still there

If we've seen the bottom of bottoms, the growth stocks have already offered us their best at bargain prices. It kinda kills me, but then again, it's my own fault that there was little dry powder available for me to fire up.

Here's an updated look at my A and A- grade stock picks and how they've done since hitting last week's lows.

AAPL 122, low 111, up 9%
The stock is lagging behind the other A graders but there's no point in complaining about 9% up. At 122, AAPL is trading below its 1-year, 13- and 50-day moving averages, just punished by the big boys who took their profits and ran. The issue here now is, no matter how well AAPL executes, will the big boys continue to use and abuse the stock for their shortcomings in other areas like subprime mortgages? I think they will, but only after another huge Apple-icious run. Pupule says: Strong buy.

AMZN 74, low 70, up 5.7%. Slow to move, and the humongous PEG (over 3.0) is certainly a reason for buyers to be cautious. Jeff Bezos has blown out the estimates for two quarters in a row, but at 74, the stock is trading just a tiny bit above its pre-Q2 earnings price. Stock is trading within its 13- and 50-day moving averages. Pupule says: Buy.

CROX 56, low 44, up 21%
The guys who have compained in recent weeks, even before last week's selloff, have no right to bitch. "Waah, why is CROX only up 1 buck today?" When CROX hit $60 after destroying bears and shorts with a Q2 report with raised guidance, there was still whining. Yep, up 50% in three months and a few people couldn't stop grumbling. Well, here were are, post-mortage massacre, and CROX is up 21% from its low. Before today, the stock was well within its 13- and 50-day moving averages. Today, however, buyers were stampeding back in and the stock was up more than 9%. The stock is above its moving averages now. That was quick. Pupule says: Wait.

GRMN 97, low 86, up 12.7%
A beautiful company and a beautiful stock. Raised guidance, then got crushed by the selloff. The smart buyers got their Garmin below 90. The rest of us who didn't have dry powder cried a river. At 97, GRMN is trading at the top of its moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

RIMM 235, low 184, up 27.7%
If you're a genius, you grabbed all the RIMM you could below 190. Today's move, particularly in the final hour, was dizzying. During that two-day period last week when all hell broke loose in the mortgage mess, RIMM was below its 13- and 50-day moving averages. Now? It's blasted off, far above its moving averages. It'll come back down, but probably not in our lifetimes. Pupule says: Wait.

BIDU 187, low 161, up 16.1%
Even with today's nice bump up, the stock is trading within its moving averages. Volume today was relatively low, which means the stock could be cheaper tomorrow. Pupule says: Buy.

CEO 104, low 92, up 13%
My favorite oil and natural gas stock is rallying off its lows. At one point, CEO touched its 200-day moving average. Spooky unless you were smart enough to scoop up more shares. At 104, with a P/E of 11, CEO is still trading below its 13- and 50-day moving averages. Oil prices are fluctuating, but China's demand for oil and nat gas will not cease for a long time. Pupule says: Strong buy.

CMG 101, low 92, up 9.7%
Chipotle hasn't moved up big, but the blowout Q2 earnings will continue to steady the ship. The stock is trading at its 13-day moving averages, well above the 50-day MA. Pupule says: Wait.

FLS 68, low 62, up 9.6%
Despite blowout earnings, Flowserve continues to hover between its 13- and 50-day moving averages. Pupule says: Buy.

GOOG 497, low 480, up 3.5%
Stock continues to be pummeled, down fractionally today. At 497, trading between its 13- and 50-day averages. I like what Google is doing in China. This team will not be stopped. Pupule says: Buy.

NILE 78, low 71, up 9.8%
Still well below its all-time high of 98. Stock was finally reviving today, up more than $3. Trading between its 13- and 50-day moving averages. Pupule says: Buy.

NTDOY.PK 52, low 51.95, no gain
The stock has languished along with the rest of the Nikkei. When the market in Tokyo settles down, the stock will be poised for another breakout. Wii and DS sales are too strong. Stock now touching its 50-day moving averages, well below its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Strong buy.

UA 64, low 54, up 18.5%
Short interest is still high, and though the stock is off its all-time highs after the great earnings report (and raised guidance), it is trading above its moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

The wise prosper in the Wild West

Cna you imagine what it's like to wake up with 2 hours left in the market most mornings? And then to see nothing but blood all over your screen?

Ah, green is a great color. It's not surprising today, of course, not with the action we saw yesterday. I went ahead and started a list of my A and A- grade picks to see how they all fared coming off their lows of yesterday (August 16).

AAPL 121 • low 111 • up 9%

AMZN 74 • low 70 • up 6.5%

CROX 50 • low 44 • up 15.1%

GRMN 93 • low 86 • up 7.6%

RIMM 211 • low 184 • up 14.3%

I'm still trying to lift my jaw off the floor. I'm sure there are a few other amateurs like me who didn't have the dry powder to jump in yesterday even though every fiber in our bodies said "GO!" A lesson well learned about market tops. No matter how great the company, and how impressive the earnings, every market has its top. Just like a cinder-cone volcano. It has to blow. Just takes a tiny spark, whether it's a mortgage massacre or anything else.

Seeing Crocs and Under Armor rip to 15% gains off yesterday's lows is just incredible, but not shocking.

BIDU 177 • low 161 • up 10%

CEO 101 • low 92 • up 10%

CMG 99 • low 92 • up 8.5%

FLS 66 • low 62 • up 6.7%

GOOG 498 • low 480 • up 3.6%

NILE 74 • low 71 • up 5.2%

NTDOY.PK, ask 53.10, bid 53.25 • low 51.95 • up 2.2%

UA 63 • low 54.50 • up 15.8%

I am surprised a bit that Blue Nile is slow to move with them, but maybe there are just more doubters now than there were one or two weeks ago when the stock nearly hit 100. The parallel between NILE and AMZN isn't totally off. When Amazon first rolled out, bears swore that it would be crushed by Barnes & Noble and Borders. Same is true of Blue Nile with Tiffany's and Zale, who could enter the online battle at any time. But they won't, not until NILE has continued to establish its territory in cyberspace.

The only other factor holding Blue Nile back is insider selling, including a sale of more than 320,000 shares by its CEO. Same pattern by CROX execs: blowout quarters, reward follows. Investors get their gains, too, even as shorts cry foul.

NILE is one of the very few stocks trading down for the day, minus 1.6% to 73.84. Talk about a steal.

Anyway, to those of you who stayed dry yesterday and today and loaded up the truck, congratulations. Think I'll go scrape some quarters off the floor of my car to get more Nintendo, which is still at a huge discount after Tokyo followed the Dow's selloff yesterday.