B+ picks slide, but Potash still rising

The B+ gang of picks is holding up fairly well, but that's like saying there were survivors of the Titanic. Fortunately, no lives are being lost in today's market, no matter how bloody.

With Dow Jones down 281 points (2.1%) and Nasdaq off 64 points (2.5%), five of the B+ picks were down more than 3%. Flowserve (FLS) sank 4.7% to $68.87 after announcing that it would sell its Swiss manufacturing facility.

HDFC Bank (HDB) of India was down 4.5% to $81.71. No bad news. Just a big bank being hit hard like all the financials. Whether the credit issue pertains to India is another question.

Darling International (DAR) got an upgrade on Monday, but sold down with the rest of the market. DAR closed at $8.03, down 4%.

China Medical Parts (CMED) and CNOOC Ltd. (CEO) were hit by U.S. volatility, as well. No bad news for either company, which could make CNOOC extremely attractive. With a P/E of 11 and return on equity of 34%, I admit it. I'm tempted.

Of the 13 B+ picks, five are in the green. Potash (POT) continues to trade like an internet bubble stock. The fertilizer company is up another 1.9% to $85,35. When I took notice of Potash a few months back, it was at $210 (pre-3 for 1 split) and it look overpriced. Wrong. I was wrong. As long as agriculture is hot, so it will be with the big POT.

SanDisk (SNDK), Focus Media (FMCN) and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) are also up. SNDK had a great earnings report a couple of weeks ago, but has pulled back from its recent high of $62. SNDK is trading at $53.43, up 1.6% for the day.

FMCN is up on no news, but the stock has been hammered in the past month since the Co asked Nasdaq for a hearing regarding two letters from a short seller. FMCN traded up 1.1% to $39.82, well off its high of $52.

Pupule promotions, demotions

With a tide of earnings reports in, it's time for some shuffling in my stock pick lists. Movin' on up:

Nintendo NTDOY.PK whacked it out of the park with its gigantic revenues and profits.

If it's one thing about the Japanese market, the fluff and wild speculation are just not, well, fluffy and wild. Think about it. While we have intrigue and bubble thoughts hovering over China — not to mention the way the government's ownership in major stocks — it's not so in Japan. Savings rates among citizens are astronomically high, as always, and bubble-icious stocks are not as prolific as they are in China or the U.S.

That's not why I am so devoted to Nintendo, however. It's about the numbers, which don't lie. That's why I'm backing up my bullish stance (and holding) by moving NTDOY.PK from B+ to A-.

Finally.

Garmin This is a Co that was on my B list when it should've been at B+, which is where I'm moving it today. Not understanding what the Co does is a large reason why I paid so little attention to it. Strictly on the numbers, though, I liked it at the B level. GRMN's earnings report is due out on Wednesday.

Demoted:

Spartan Motors As a Co, not much has changed for SPAR. Landing contracts (or not) is a way of life, an irrefutable fact of life that alters its stock. But the flip side of it is that the fundamentals of Spartan won't make investors a profit unless revenues are realized, and without the latter, the stock has tumbled mightily. As much as I rely on a Co's fundamentals, stocks are about popularity to an unfortunate, but real extent.

Is yesterday's $1 million stock buyback going to turn the tide? With the earnings miss (by 6 cents per original estimate), that'll be tough. The Co is quite the same. Traders who ran it up and knocked it down ... they're the real Jekyll and Hyde here. The real longs will scoop up cheap shares here at $12, particularly with 40% annual growth coming, according to the Co.

Hoku Scientific Demoted from B- to C+. Great prospects, dwindling revenues (per last week's earnings report), huge promises. HOKU is not your average small cap. It's the equivalent of taking a promising young baseball player out of the minors after a short stint and starting him on a major-league team. Hard-working player, diligent on and off the field, but at least a year or two from hitting his stride.

Opposing fans ride him incessantly for his hefty paycheck. Home fans dote on him and believe he will develop into an All-Star in due time. HOKU traded up today, but at $9 is well off its high in the $14 range. This is likely a trader's dream for the coming 18 months.

Volcom An earnings miss has pulverized the stock, which traded today at $38, a 14% haircut. I own a Volcom surfer wallet and like it. However, unless some new products enter the market, VLCM is going to trade sideways for some time. Retail is a rough market, more so with an outdoor-oriented Co that misses in what should have been its best season of the year. I demoted VLCM from B to C+.

Joy Global Earnings aren't due for another month, but a guidance cut from JOYG sent the shares down 14% on Wednesday.

Demoted down to C+ by Pupule.

Dendreon The silence from top brass is deafening. Insider sales, including those by CEO Mitchell Gold, before the stock took a major plunge off a cliff on May 9, still haven't been explained sufficiently by the Co. Worse yet, the lack of transparency has the SEC mired in an "informal inquiry" of DNDN and its clinical trials.

Provenge is Provenge, a potentially life-extending immunotherapy treatment for prostate cancer patients. However, DNDN has shown no signs of life when it comes to navigating the treacherous waters of the FDA, hedge funds and big pharma. Provenge has been shelved for much too long, and no reason the Co has given can excuse the delay for patients.

Demoted from C to D+. Sadly, until management is shaken up or overthrown, Provenge will remain locked up.

Pupule Paul is long NTDOY.PK, HOKU and DNDN.

SNDA, CMG bumped down; SNDK a growth monster

Some minor changes and a nice addition to my lists of stock picks.

Shanda Interactive down from B+ to B due to government restrictions on online game "addicts". This nut has been getting screwed for awhile now, and last week, the hammer came down. Shanda (SNDA) will still thrive, but at a slower rate, particularly with intense competition from NetEase.

Chipotle Mexican Grill also down from B+ to B due to increased costs in cheese and avocados. Nothing more.

Spartan Motors? Great company, but the stock was priced for perfect execution. That didn't happen recently, when a key contract fell by the wayside. Down from A- to B+.

SanDisk is clearly in strength now with worldwide demand for flash memory growing. SNDK is a B+ here, and very close to an A-. P/E is 74, but growth will be monstrous.

Also like Starbucks as expansion into a robust Chinese economy continues. China's economy was up 11.9% in Q2 over '06 Q2, which means more spending money and more tea at SBUX. Moved SBUX up from B- to B.

Opsware rising to new heights

Opsware, formerly LoudCloud, is making some noise today.

With more than an hour left in the session, the stock is up 4.7 percent to $10.46, an all-time high. Monday's sales and marketing partnership deal with Solidcore boosted the stock, which had been trading sideways since hitting its previous high on June 18.

With a $1.1 billion market cap, OPSW has been alluring but I haven't put my toes in the water yet. With Marc Andreessen and a bunch of his former charges at Netscape still alongside, Opsware has an interesting chemistry and leadership that separates it from the average small or mid-cap. It's one of my favorite B+ rated stocks.

Other B+ picks doing well today: Precision Castparts (PCP) is up 3.5 percent, Infosys (INFY) is up 3.4 percent and HDFC Bank (HDB) is up 3.5 percent after raising $698 million in American Depositary Shares.

Among Pupule's A- picks, RIMM continues to soar into the stratosphere, up 2 percent to $234.97. AAPL is also at a new high, trading at $140.21 with no bad news in sight and earnings less than a week away. Spartan Motors (SPAR) is also up, but I'm leaning toward pushing it to a B or B+ level. The fundamentals of the company haven't changed, but the market perception has. Short-term traders took SPAR to great heights in recent months before taking their gains.

At $16.51, it's a relative bargain, but probably not an A- stock until it can raise the bar and convince more investors to hold on for the long haul.

Baidu is still tumbling, now down to $194. A typical pullback for a small float, but earnings could spark another major run. BIDU has its own set of trading rules, re: giant Internet stocks of the late 1990s.

One of the B grade stocks, Seaspan Corp. (SSW), is up 5.6 percent after a healthy Q2 earnings report. In addition, Credit Suisse initiated coverage of Seaspan today.

Pupule Paul is a tiny bit long AAPL and BIDU.

Hoku taking a breather

As expected, at least by this pupule, shares of Hoku Scientific are pulling back today after another meteoric rise.

HOKU had reached an all-time high last week, but decreasing volume on Thursday and Friday gave some indication that buyers were running out of steam. Hoku hit a high of $14.55, buoyed by pre-market volume of 228,000 shares. However, they trade at $13.87 now, down 18 cents from Friday's close.

The stock could use a breather as the PPS consolidates at these new, lofty levels. Bears and bulls have had it out on this company for many months now. Bears point to the current state of the Co, with scant revenues and no facility constructed as of yet to build out polysilicon for solar energy companies from Germany to China.

Bulls, meanwhile, point to the Co's swift decision-making and finesse in handling partnership deals potentially worth $1.2 billion. The polysilicon facility is expected to be completed in Pocatello, Idaho, in the first half of 2009.

The most significant pullback for the stock in the past month has been 18 percent, which barely puts a dent in the overall gain. On June 12, HOKU traded at $4.50. Even with this morning's pullback, HOKU is up 308 percent since the first of two key polysilicon contracts were established.

Hoku's amazing run — the stock was at $2.60 to start the year — isn't necessarily done. Friday's volume was 4.3 million shares, down from Wednesday's 11.6 million. The strength of today's action could bolster the bear sentiment if volume is considerable on a down day. Conversely, a strong surge in volume to the plus side could be the fuel to spur any remaining bulls currently on the sideline.

Elsewhere, Apple shares are zooming upward into new territory again. Despite a flat market — the Nasdaq is down by a fraction of a percentage point — buyers are converging on AAPL now that the iPhone is proving to be a hit and earnings are coming around the corner.

Revenue from iPhone sales won't impact the bottom line for second-quarter earnings, but Apple could announce what the impact of the June 29 release could mean for Q3. Lacking any foreseeable bad news, there appears nothing to keep AAPL shares tied down.

Apple traded to $139.98 in the first 30 minutes of the session. AAPL is currently at $138.52, up 81 cents, on 11.5 million shares traded.

Two more A- stock picks, Baidu and Research in Motion, are also up early in the day. BIDU was up $1.74 to $214.56. RIMM was up $4.57 to $232.09.

Crox, Google and Foster Wheeler were also up moderately. Spartan Motors and Amazon were the only A- stock picks that were down early.

Falling again: Shares of Northwest Biotherapeutics took another hit in the first hour today, dropping 57 cents to $4.35. The stock had rocketed to $7.33 a week ago after announcing that Switzerland had granted the Co approval for limited use of its immunotherapy treatement for brain cancer.

NWBO.OB fell for the next few days, hitting a mid-week low of $4.30, the rallying on low volume to $5.10. The stock is trading at $4.49, nearly double from its pre-announcement price per share.

Real strength in AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, RIMM

I'm a firm believer in buy and hold, no matter what Cramer says. Nothing against swing or day trading. I just think a substantial portion of any portfolio should include core holdings. Trading around those core holdings makes sense.

Letting a powerful bull run works in a simple, pure way as opposed to trying to catch it and ride it for short gains — paying a higher tax and multitude of commissions along the way. With that in mind, here's quick look at my A- stock picks and where momentum stands in each.

Amazon (AMZN) $75.10
After trading sideways since a June 14 mid-day high of $72.87, volume kicked up on Monday. Today was a third day in a row of increasing volume (12.5 million shares) and AMZN traded at an all-time high of $75.35 at mid-day. Rising volume and the breakout make this a tempting buy for Amazonians.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) $137.73
To the dismay of Apple bears and competitors, the gravy train is still chugging ahead. At near-warp speed, mind you. AAPL broke out to a new high (ho hum) today on 32 million shares, up from yesterday's 25 mil. Though this is one of only eight A- stocks, it is also only one of four that is at a healthy entry point.

Baidu (BIDU) $212.84
Bear-buster Baidu has gained $77 in one month. With a float of just 19 million shares, the short squeeze has been painful for bears. The recent move up, since $181 on July 2, has been on robust volume. There have been only four down days since June 12, and today's breakout is an all-time high. Is it a buy here? Tough call for momo traders, since today's 5.2 million shares is right about average for the past 30 days. Always a major risk in terms of entry point. This stock hasn't known a floor since it was in the 90s!

Crox (CROX) $47.10
The happy run from $40 to $49 hit a skid yesterday, and the PPS dropped today on lower volume. As earnings day (Aug. 2) inches closer, plus options expiry, volatility will rule. Risk-loving longs will load up on this mini-dip.

Foster Wheeler (FWLT) $120.25
Recent run is nice, but the stock has finished lower in two of the last three days. Could be a buying opp for bulls.

Google (GOOG) $552.16
Seems like just a little while ago when Google was hovering at $460 and investors were growing weary, bored, frustrated with the lack of volatility. Well, blame your leaders. Google intends to never split. Google intends to have a stable stock. They love Warren Buffett in Googleland. Good for investors. Today's breakout (up nearly 7 bucks) on 5.2 million shares is nice for longs and long wannabees.

(Update, 2:35 p.m. CNBC just reported that the eBay-Google debacle of a few months ago could affect Google's earnings. Somehow, I just don't put much stock in that, and if it affects GOOG, bulls have a buying opp.)

Spartan Motors (SPAR) $17.16
The stock has struggled since its split and has given up much of its fluff. Underneath remains a strong moneymaker. The stock has traded sideways for three weeks. An interesting earnings report is around the corner.

Research in Motion (RIMM) $227.52
Nice breakout today (5.6%) on higher volume. This stock has just killed shorts, and who knows how high it flies now. Like Baidu, except with real money in its coffers. And, coincidentally, the Chinese market awaits the Crackberry. Looks like a buy here.