Smelled good

3:13 am (Hawaii) Just before Trichet spoke, FAZ bumped up to 50.46 premarket. Then he said, indirectly, that interest rates are going up this summer in Euro land. Exactly when, he won't say. Bullish, just a bit, for financials. Bad for FAZ. I got out of that trade. The idea wasn't bad, but the timing was horrible. Buying at a top (yesterday) is never good, even when it turns profitable. that just sets up the next top buy, and inevitably, buying at the top often enough leads to destruction. I lost $315 on that trade, a small number percentage-wise (well below 1%) of my modest roll. But I had to get out. There is no catalyst to get FAZ moving in premarket, and none once the bell — and the hyperspeed deep-galaxy alien machines — start humming.

FAZ can edge higher from here. I considered a partial sell. But the added risk on the downside wasn't worth it. Just not enough buying pressure yet, so it could easily fall below 50 or 45.50. Live to fight another day.

Update 3:22 am (Hawaii) 56% of my Regular watch list is green, 31% red. Spot Silver inching higher. Spot Gold in range. In a rut. CSTR is up 4% on news that it is opening more than 1,000 kiosks in Safeway stores. MWW (+3.3%), MOS (+2.3%), LULU (+2%) all up. TVIX (-3.3%), ONW (-2.3%) and ZSL (-1.7%).

Metals list is 56% green, 23% red. TRE (+2.5%), EXK (+2.1%), XG (+1.8%), AGQ (+1.7%), GPL (+1.6%) all benefitting from an overdue bounce in silver plays. How long will this last? Almost all silver plays are green.

ZSL (-1.6%), DBB (-1.3%), COPX (-1.1%), JJC (-1.1%) are at the bottom.

Update 3:44 am (Hawaii) FAZ just did a major melt up and mini crash. Went from 50.02 to 50.75 just seven minutes after the opening bell. Then fell to 50.30 in the next few minutes. Wild. Probably purely mechanical, but I wonder how much of it was raised to clear out positions for big money that bought in late yesterday near the top. Now at 50.36. Without any expected news for financials, it'll hover here.

Might be time for me to hit the sack again. That was a hell of a feeling to see it go back to my entry point. I could've broke even, in theory. Moving on...

Update 3:57 am (Hawaii) The fall for FAZ is fugly, from 50.75 to 49.58. Waterfall. Dead cat bounce for the finnies: WFC (+1.7%), C (+1.3%), GS (+1.2%) BAC (+1%), JPM (+1%). NBG (+2.3%) up, too. The only one on my list of banks in the red is IRE (-3.1%).

Skittish you are

The market is looking quite uncertain this morning. It began with crude oil futures spiking over 102, then brought back to 99 by the opening bell. I'm looking for a retrace by UCO to 12.87 (50% of today's premarket gain) before I dip in. I got lots of rest overnight, even with the aches and threat of a bad flu. Show must go on.

There are equities in the green — MOS, GLD, X, FCX. Also some big NASDAQ names like AAPL, AMZN, BIDU. An AAPL retrace to 343.98 is interesting (currently 343.53). And UCO is bouncing off 12.80 now.

SLW got knocked down this morning as silver futures took a big hit just before the opening bell. Funny how that happens.

Update: 5:20 am (Hawaii). UCO nosediving a bit here, now 12.74. Immediate support at 12.67, also support at 11.60, but if this fills the gap from the past week, it could sink as low as 11.

Update, 1:26 pm (Hawaii). Just woke up a few minutes ago, catching up on today's moves. Holy crude. UCO hovered in the 12.80s until 2:01 pm Eastern, then fell off a cliff and didn't stop until 11.91 90 minutes later. (Now trading at 12.22 AH.) Brutal. I'm thankful that I stayed out of the market. Again. Fast Money saying that margins were increased, that this made a huge difference, more than the terror in Libya, the assurances of the Saudis, etc.

Also amazing to see SLW drop even lower than it was when I fell asleep. LOD was 38.38, now at 38.60 AH. SLV, which I no longer trust, began its decline at 2:13 Eastern — 12 minutes after UCO nosedived — and went from 32.44 to 30.95 by 3:18 pm Eastern. Now at 32.55 AH.

Market finished generally flat. DJ -0.3%, S&P -0.1%, NASDAQ +0.55%. AAPL, AMZN, BIDU fractionally up. AAPL was lingering at its LOD 338 when it began its rally — roughly 2 pm Eastern. So, as oil and metals went down, AAPL soared to 343 in almost a straight line. AAPL is at 342.98 in AH.

Zoom zoom zoom

4:40 am (Hawaii). Futures were rather flat and AAPL was just slightly in the green during premarket as I drifted in and out of sleep this morning. I'm finally retiring to bed, turned away from the laptop for a few moments and ZOOM! AAPL went from 356 to 359 at incredible speed.

Might have something to do with talk of a mini iPhone that would be half the size of the current make. More likely, it's just cash inflows pouring into the market as the week begins, scared money that avoided the risks of a wacky environment. How else to explain how EGPT has gone up $1 since I noticed it afterhours on Friday (now 19.60). Or NFLX climbing another $5 (to 236). Commodity-driven stocks like MOS and POT have enjoyed spurts this morning, but SLV and EXK are up, too. GLD (+0.6%), also up.

The broader market is pretty flat, but the momo leaders are still on fire. Zoom zoom zoom...

Update, 1:17 pm (Hawaii). A solid eight hours of sleep with intermittent checks on the market. That's how it's possible to doze through the session. Even if I'd been up, I wouldn't have bought AAPL at 359.38 or NFLX at 247.55, their highs of the day. No, I knew there would be no chasing of high flyers. I want great stocks cheap. I was better off sleeping.

How to explain NFLX, which ran higher — currently up 15.68 to 246.75 (+6.8%) — on news of increased popularity online. The numbers are bizarre and incredible: 20% of online traffic is because of Netflix now. Again, I say that the CEO of the company showed his savvy and efficiency a few years back during an interview on 60 Minutes. Still, I was not convinced. I was wrrrrrrong. Even a year ago, shares were available at 70 or so. Small float. Great opportunity. But I thought Apple and Amazon would invade the online streaming niche. Wrong again.

WSJ says time spent per viewer was up on Netflix 23%, 28% more video was streamed and customers spent 45% more time watching video online. (I wonder how movie theater stocks are doing.)

AAPL, by far, is my trading vehicle of choice, but in reality, it's a steady mover with occasional spurts. Better as a buy-and-hold over the short or mid-term. NFLX, clearly, is a short-stomper to the extreme. The combination of good news and fund inflows today didn't hurt, but I won't expect continued rise in the price tomorrow or the day after. I never expected NFLX to see 245 this soon, either, so...

Speaking of AAPL, that spike from 357 to 359 was dizzying. And shares stayed above 358 the rest of the day. Not many wanted to sell. Sure, 11 million shares aren't much to brag about, but there is simply a shortage of sellers while fund managers continue to collect shares. I try not to think about my own "relationship" with AAPL, having sold last week at 358.70. There was no way I was dipping a single toe into the water after that mini flash crash. Apparently, whoever (hedge funds) sold massively during that 30-minute period is done selling... right?

Never say never ... but those who have held since the run to 200 and dip to 78 and back up to 358 have probably gotten all their sleep and have begun counting down the days to retirement. More power to them.

AAPL: Huge spike in the first 10 minutes.

Volume tapering off, but Apple knows how

to consistently 'leak' stimulating news.

Massive short covering in NFLX at the open.

Count 'em: Six major gap-ups in the past 12 months.

Update, 4:55 pm (Hawaii). Catching up on today's big move in NFLX. So what really made NFLX jump another 16 bucks today? Qualcomm's development of an essential chip platform? More on Snapdragon's prowess here. Was it an analyst's upgrade? David Miller raised his target from 224 to 316.

Wow. 

Leonard Brecken accused Netflix of "playing accounting games." 

Update, 5:53 am (Hawaii). OK, Brecken and whoever else can bash Netflix all they like, but combine online movies with something cool like Apple iPads and iPhones (via app) and you have a recipe for uber-cool success, a Viagrish effect. I can accept that. May never buy at these levels, but it's there. 

But what about LULU? Really, I understand trends and fads, but this is parabolic. A double in four months? Really? Though Lululemon Athletica is legitimate as a company that sells butt-shaping product to yoga-loving women across America, the current trend in the stock reminds me of Fall, 2007. At that time, LULU was fresh off its IPO and I grabbed a few shares at 45. It exploded to 60, then fell back to 45 even more quickly and I got out at break-even. 

Now that it's trading at 83 with a chart that resembles Mt. Everest, is LULU's spurt about to run empty? Is this a sign of a market top? I think a short-term selloff is on the way. Nothing wrong, just basic supply and demand. 

The Viagrish effect will wear off or it'll break on its own.

Sell Apples, Make Cash

8:16 am (Hawaii). Sold the AAPL position at 358.70 for a 2% (almost) gain over two days. No complaints other than I should've pulled that trigger sooner (yesterday and today). The intra-day lower highs and lower lows (the past couple of hours) convinced me to step out. I'm relieved.

I can breathe a little better rather than wait for the herd to stampede out, though some of them already did above 359. I reserve the right to re-enter later today, maybe around 355-356. Could happen after that mad dash from 356 to 359 (and later 360). Not really expecting a drop today, though. Just wanted to lock in a decent profit, especially since I might fall asleep. These all-nighters are only fun with a profit in the pocket.

Update, 8:58 am (Hawaii). Got out in the nick of time. A few minutes after my sell, AAPL began to cascade over a major cliff. Most AAPL fans knew it was due for a selloff, but it went from 358 to 348 in a span of 17 minutes or so. This is exactly why I insist on trading AAPL short-term only at this point. The long-timers who got their shares at 95 or 200 can rest easy; this is basically a blip. But for traders who entered at these levels (I entered on Tuesday just below 352), sitting through a 10-dollar plunge is useless. Not sure how or why volume was so freaking huge to the downside, but it bounced off 348, came back to 354+, and is now settling at 352+.

Cleared out all the stop loss orders along the way, one more reason why I prefer to have a mental stop instead of relying on anything else. Whoever picked up shares this week with plans to hold it to 500 or 1,000, this is a blip, as well. I'd rather get out and see if I can get a cheaper price.

Update, 9:19 am (Hawaii). Should add that if I seem a bit paranoid about stop-loss orders in a momo situation, it's because I've been burned royally in bear raids before (DNDN).

Update, 10:02 am (Hawaii). Still no clear indication of what caused the early afternoon crash of AAPL.

Philip Elmer-DeWitt: Snapshot of an Apple flash crash

Here, the mini-crash puts a dent right through what had been a robust gain (after shares opened to the downside along with the rest of the market). I lucked out and exited just before that at 358.70. 

The two-day chart shows exactly how oddly AAPL behaved while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ went about the afternoon as if nothing happened. 

AAPL still near its all-time high. Retouching 360 is going to be a challenge after a lengthy run. 

Update, 3:02 pm (Hawaii). Kept an eye on AAPL and the Egypt coverage on TV afterhours, but didn't trade a thing. VXX was somewhat interesting, rising about 30¢ to 28.79 AH after Mubarak told his nation that he ain't resigning yet. Just not worth the move with contango and the way it hits VXX each morning to the downside regardless of externals.

Market finished flat, basically. APPL finished AH at 354.10, down roughly a buck after a flash-crash-like free-fall (see above).

DIS was barely in the red (43.31 AH) after yesterday's huge jump on great earnings. OPEN, ECA, BIDU, TBT, LULU, HAIN, POT and MOS all 1.3% higher or more. NFLX, AMZN, GLD fractionally higher.

Here's an excellent summary of why hardly anyone showed up at the stores for the new Verizon iPhone 4.

Philip Elmer-DeWitt: Why are the Verizon lines so short? 

As I stalk my shares of AAPL ...

The rest of the market is soaring much higher. Not to be greedy, of course, with a $3+ move since yesterday AH. But I look at my growing watch list and DIS is at the top with a 4.2% gain. Mickey Mouse hasn't been atop a space mountain this high since May, 2000. That's some ride down and back up!

Imagine a Disney longtimer who saw his stock options sag monumentously TWICE in the past 11 years. Getting back to even never felt so good.

Other big gainers today: HAIN (Cramer with a big pump yesterday), AMZN +3.7%, SLV +3.1%, NGD +2.9%, EXK +2.7%, LULU +2.7%, RLOC +1.9%, VCLK +1.8%, TBT +1.8% (go figure), FAS +1.3%), OPEN +1.2%, IBM +1.1%, GLD +1.1%.

AAPL trading afterhours at 354.92 after brief spurt to 355.69. BIDU, F, VZ, GOOG, MOS fractionally higher.

In the red: NFLX -0.1%, POT -1.5%.

As for AAPL, I'm 30% tempted to sell for a nice little profit. I'm 20% cautious about another pre-catalyst bad-news lightning bolt (re: MLK Day/Steve Jobs health issue). If Apple has an overnight bad-news announcement, I won't be shocked. Fortunately, the 50% in me that says, "Let the winner run" is prevailing.

2-day

 2-month

10-year: extreme slope up tempts shorts, but 76% growth is monstrous