Showing posts with label Howard Schultz. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Howard Schultz. Show all posts

Friday, August 3, 2007

I like Starbucks, but . . .

A must read: Jeff Macke's analysis of Starbucks.

Haven't been to my favorite afternoon hangout, Starbucks, since my nephew finished summer school. See, the routine was like this:

• Take nephew to summer school by noon.
• Stop in at Starbucks, just a few blocks from the school, to avoid relentlessly bad Honolulu freeway drivers.
• Plug in my adapter, check my favorite message boards and write on this blog.
• Milk my a) vanilla bean frappuccino, b) hot cocoa, or c) hot tea.
• Use the restroom at least a couple times as 3.5 hours passed.
• Debate whether to buy another drink. Did this occasionally, but usually just refilled my cup with water from the dispenser.
• 3:45 p.m., head up the road to pick up my nephew.
• Take him home.
• Take him to practice.

From there, my springtime habit was to stop in at another coffee shop, Coffee Bean and Tea, while he was at practice. Now, however, I head to his house, where I wait for my mother to be dropped off by the HandiVan after another day at the senior day care center. So the afternoon trips to Coffee Bean, where I liked the hot cocoa and free electricity, ended.

For what it's worth, the Starbucks I frequented before my nephew's summer school session ended was quite busy. Not line-out-the-door busy. That would be the nearby Subway during lunch hour. But it was busy enough and well supported by a community that was one of the last in the city to get a Starbucks.

My need to buy Starbucks beverages is not a real need. Spending $4 for a frappuccino isn't a habit I want. Going there, I confess, is only a matter of convenience. Good service, good product, but just convenience. Air conditioning helps during a hot Hawaiian summer day.

That's why, though I do respect Peter Lynch's "Buy what you know" approach, I have never bought a share of SBUX. I'll walk into a location with my Crocs Caymans and Apple PowerBook, and my nephew will come with me from time to time wearing his Under Armor long-sleeved shirt ... but I'm not going to buy a share.

What's the solution to the Co's growth woes? I see two.

1. Go private. Howard Schultz doesn't want to see all his work and sweat go down the drain, which it will if overseas expansion doesn't pan out. Going private will lessen the strain, ease the burden of growth and help the Co refocus on its soul.

2. Sell to Pepsi. PEP would be more than happy to flaunt its wares at all 14,000 Starbucks locations, while expanding its line of beverages.

Unlike McDonald's, which excels in volume and short stays, SBUX's soul caters to long-sitting patrons who savor an aesthetically pleasing experience almost as much as their beverages. Bricks and mortar can be a growth monster, but when the ceiling hits, there's no soul in concrete.

Monday, July 16, 2007

Starbucks compels, but ...

I confess, most of my down time outside of home is spent in ... uhh ... well ... Starbucks.

Aside from the hours spent stuck in traffic, Starbucks is the one place I return to at least twice a week. They're everywhere, at least here on Oahu. It's also one of the few places that'll let me plug my laptop in and hang out for an hour, two hours, even three hours. Most times I get a hot cocoa or ice tea, maybe two. I'm not a total cheapskate.

And yet, as well as I think I know the ambience, service and products of Starbucks, I've yet to buy a single share. Starbucks has grown up all right, and is approaching the weight of a Coca Cola or McDonald's. Shifting its weight around is difficult at this size, unlike smaller, younger, more nimble growth companies. So why is Georges Yared still gung ho about SBUX?

In his piece at BloggingStocks.com, Yared points to the Co's goal of expanding from 13,000 stores to 40,000. Much of that growth, of course, will be overseas. India. China. There are already many tales of how young adults in China use Starbucks as a hangout place in lieu of nightclubs and bars. The growth in China is incredibly important to the future growth of the Co, of course, and pleasing Chinese customers is key.

I don't see CEO Howard Schultz missing the boat on this opportunity. If the Chinese want more tea than coffee, so be it. The stock, though, was at an all-time high less than a year ago. Growth slowed, though, and there wasn't enough justification to consider a buy over $35, or even $30. A buy at $26 is what I thought, but didn't expect.

Today, SBUX closed at $26.08, up from a 52-week low of $25.22 on June 25. Remarkably, the P/E is 32, and I have to wonder, is this the real bottom? Maybe.

The more important question is, where will SBUX be in a year? Will growth in China show up on the bottom line really, really soon? As surely as Starbucks grows into China, so will McDonald's, and the Golden Arches promise to be as much of a foe there as they are here.

So, with respect to Yared, one of my favorite, most progressive stock writers, I'll take a pass on SBUX until some numbers come out. It's worth noting, though, that just about every growth stock I love has some kind of relationship to China. Baidu. Sina. Focus Media. Shanda Interactive. CNOOC.

But if I buy what I know, I should get SBUX. Wonder if they could set up some Crocs kiosks in the Chinese Starbucks stores. Hmmm...

Disclaimer: Pupule Paul has no position in SBUX, but is long CROX.