Whitney Tilson as Spock

Is there really anyone on Wall Street who is as logical and stoic as Mr. Whitney Tilson. Sure, he screwed up on the Netflix trade, but he wasn't wrong. He was too early. Then there was that short position on housing before the subprime mess. He was quite right on that.

Like nothing ever changed

7:57 am (Hawaii) Just closed your eyes, breathe deeply and this could be a month ago, a season ago. LULU up 10%. GMCR up 9.4%. BIDU up 6%. NFLX, oh, Netflix, up 5.5%. AAPL up 2.5%. Just beautiful, mindless moves higher. YOKU up 5.1%. GOOG 3.5% higher. The effect of free monopoly money, printed to no end by Helicopter Ben.

Problem is, the market is up today without provocation. It was due for a bounce in the midst of this 2 or 3 week slow-motion crash. Gold is down into the 1860 area after flirting with 1915 or so overnight. Silver has backed up to 42.50 after visiting 44.00 again. All natural, as they say. I don't suspect CME mafia involvement this time. It feels like normal profit-taking. Come on. AAPL shouldn't be below 350 anyway. It's up more than $10 to 366+.

When Helicopter Ben alludes to any form of QE3 on Friday, the indices will race higher than today's gains (DJ +1.8%, Nas +2.5%, S&P +1.8%). It could be good for 1,000 points on the S&P 500 (currently 1,142). But there probably won't be another run like QE2. The general public is past the point of fantastical whims and lies. More people know the fractional reserve banking system is the real bubble. Video of riots in major cities across the globe do not lie. So I expect plenty of turbulence and roller coaster action.

I'm trying to leave my modest position in DGP alone, whether it hovers near its high (72.25) or today's low (69.15). I got up around 7 am Hawaii time, so it was much too late to ride today's momentum on the bullish route. Keeping my eyes on AAPL, FAS, DZZ, ZSL. Also QQQ, BIDU. More than likely I do nothing. With DJ up 180 points, maybe it catches fire into the close, or maybe it fizzles a little.

Update 8:08 am CNBC reporting that an earthquake hit Virginia and was felt as far as headquarters up near New York City and far west as Detroit. Market remains near its highs for today. It was a 6.0 quake.

Fazzy, fizzly Friday and what is GSVC?

10:59 am (Hawaii) FAZ did me no good today and I got out before the closing bell with a miniscule loss ($30). It's the one ETF that I'd never hold overnight, with its whimsical flair and the constant puppetry exhibited by central banks and the Fed. Monday morning might be a good time to step back in.

Still holding AGQ, XG and DGP. With AGQ and XG flat after I opened positions, it was EXK that made a nice move higher during the day. My plan is to stay long these issues from time to time, and use dips to buy physical. Though there are dozens of gurus out there who insist that the global fiat currency house of cards could crumble any day, my take is it's still early enough to buy on dips rather than hot streaks. Silver is better at 33 than 49, better at 35 than 40. Same with gold, though I don't expect another sub-1500 drop.

Volume-wise, EXK had nearly as much as yesterday while gaining 2.5% to a high of 10.00. AGQ, similar volume. XG, very low volume on a slightly down (-0.7%) day — the pause the refreshes. (I really should've stayed in XG weeks ago at 9 or so, before Eric Sprott's involvement/purchase of shares.) XG at 14.12 afterhours. Volume in metals was generally solid, comparable to the rest of the week. SLW's volume was down today some; the stock has gone from 30 to 36 in two weeks.

The PMs have had two pieces of really interesting news recently. The first is that Andrew Maguire will speak on August 4 in London at GATA's annual metalpalooza event. He showed up on a video about China's new gold exchange (posted here a couple of times), disproving the non-believers who had insisted that Maguire is a figment of imaginations.

Second, India announced yesterday that it will import 350 tons of gold and 1,200 tons of silver in the 2011-12 fiscal year due to rising demand. As US jobs are outsourced more and more, India is one of the markets that has benefited. The middle class is swelling, they have money to spend on those beautiful Hindu-influenced pieces of jewelry, and PMs will be affected immensely.

AAPL is at 360, still rolling after yesterday's news about a possible deal with China Mobile. Here, the stock is close to an all-time high, which is astounding. Just a couple of weeks ago, AAPL was at 310. What Euro debt crisis??

Today wasn't just Aloha Friday, end of the week, blahblahblah. It also marked another huge gain for something called GSV Capital Corp. (GSVC), as noted by mad genius Le Fly here and here. The stock exploded 10.2% in today's session to 16.20, and that's coming off a major gap up in late June. That's when GSVC purchased a 15% share in an unknown internet loser known as Facebook and went from 10.27 to 13.90 overnight. The 225,000 shares at $29.28 per represent 15% of GSV's total portfolio. 

I joke about Facebook, but with that move, GSV Capital provided the market with a measurement of value. Because of GSVC, Facebook is now "valued" at 220 BEEEEEEEEEELLLLLIOOONNNNN dollars. Is it a joke? Who knows. GSVC consolidated for all of seven sessions before erupting once again today on huge (for them) volume, 456K shares. That's almost as many as the first rip on June 27.

GSVC's Yahoo summary page looks like a penny stock: mostly "NA". Outstanding shares: 3.34 million. It began trading in late April and there aren't truly visible statistics to measure it by. All that is known is that it is the only publicly traded entity besides Goldman Sachs to own a piece of Facebook. With Zynga being valued in the billions — who would've thought it a few years ago as Facebook users became addicted to online games like Farmville — this is a virtual world to be MINED. GSVC was available briefly for less than 11 bucks when the stock caved a few weeks back. Maybe that was the impetus that led to the Facebook move.

Whatever the case, on GSVC's first big move up to 13.90, the stock dipped back to the middle of that candlestick four sessions later to a temporary low of 13.55. Today's tenacious rise? A perfectly normally profit-taking move back to the middle of today's candlestick brings shares to roughly 15.55. Can I wait for that? Surely, if the market tanks next week, all things decline with it, including GSVC, AAPL, LULU, NFLX ... any hot stock.

But if the market does NOT tank, then 16.40 could be a bargain. I think I'll chisel in with a tiny piece today. This Facebook thing ... it might be big one day!

More, more, more about GSV

GSV Capital website

Le Fly: It's CMGI all over again (July 8)

AP: Nasdaq stocks posting largest percentage increases (July 8)

Seeking Alpha (OneMedPlace radio): Michael Moe interview (July 4)

AP: Nasdaq stocks posting largest percentage decreases (June 30)

Minyanville: GSV Capital announcing a stake in Facebook (June 29)

Seeking Alpha (Igor Greenwald): Do I hear $210 billion for Facebook (June 29)

CNN (Ken Sweet): Stocks soar on housing data (June 28)

Seeking Alpha (NakedValue.com): 6 wild story stocks you can't ignore (June 28)

Wall Street Journal: Stocks to watch (June 28)

CNN: Shares of GSV Capital Corp. climbed 5% in premarket (June 28)

Seeking Alpha (Ian Bezek): GSV Capital's 40% Facebook pop sets up great short (June 28)

Reuters: Wall Street Journal top stories (June 28)

CNN (Dan Primack): Zynga IPO is a market test for Facebook (June 28)

AP: Nasdaq stocks posting largest percentage increases (June 27)

CNN (Pan Primack): How GSV got Facebook at 'only' $70 billion (June 27)

(video) CNN: GSV Capital 'likes' Facebook (June 27)

Forbes (Tomio Geron): GSV Capital investment values Facebook at $70 billion (June 27)

AP: GSV Capital invests $6.6 million in Facebook (June 27)

CNN (Julianne Pepitone): GSV investment values Facebook at $70 billion (June 27)

Reuters: GSV takes stake in Facebook, valuing it at $70 billion (June 27)

Globe Newswire: GSV Capital invests in Facebook (June 27)

AP: Nasdaq stocks posting largest percentage decreases (June 16)

SEC: Form 10-Q for GSV Capital Corp. (June 13)

AP: Nasdaq stocks posting largest percentage decreases (June 13)

Forbes (Tomio Geron): GSV Capital makes its first investment in Kno (June 6)

SEC: Form 8-K, Other Events (June 6)

Globe Newswire: GSV Capital invests in Kno (June 6)

Globe Newswire: NeXt Innovation Corp. changes name to GSV Capital Corp. (June 1)

Forbes (Tomio Geron): With GSV Fund, the little guy can shoot for the next Facebook (May 16)

SEC: Form 8-K for NeXt Innovation Corp. (Apr 28)

Globe Newswire: NeXt Innovation Corp. prices IPO (Apr 28)

Jobs Report

2:33 am (Hawaii) Info off CNBC (I'm away from home): June employment rate is 9.2%, highest since December of 2010. May job numbers revised from 54,000 to 24,000. Private sector jobs 57,000 in June vs. 73,000 plus in May.

Average workweek in hours dropped from 34.4 (May) to 34.3 (June). Payrolls for June (nonfarm) are up 18,000.

And with these numbers, Dow futures went from positive to -102 points. Make that -123. Nasdaq futures are down 20 points. Maybe this is a good time to go long FAZ! Maybe not.

AAPL down 3.45 to 353.75. There goes the bull run of the past 10 days or so. Metals seem to be flat for now. Well, LULU down 1.33. BAC down 17¢. Metals had nice volume this week. The rest of the market, so-so volume. FAZ up 1.16. Hmmm.

Now CNBC says Treasurys are up. US Dollar is up 0.5% to 75.63. Now why would that be just because the jobs numbers are up a miniscule 18,000?

Spot Gold down 3.60 to 1527.00. Spot Silver down 28¢ to 36.26. It was already time for a pullback in the broader market, anyway. This will probably provide a dip for PM buyers. Opportunistic buyers. But I'm still hoping for silver at 32 before my next metal addition. Being a cheapskate can be positive.

Update 2:51 am (Hawaii) BOIIING! Gold now 1535.80 (up 5.20) and Silver down only 9% at 36.45. Indices still red by roughly 1% each.

Update 2:54 am (Hawaii) There go the PMs! Gold 1542.90, Silver now in green at 36.61. FAZ might be playable, but AGQ, EXK, XG ... I may open a position before the opening bell.

Greecian formula?

10:17 am (Hawaii) Major momentum swings today. Jobs report bad. Greece austerity good. Looking over several charts from AAPL to NBG to AG, could it be remotely possible that this bullish vibe — increased volume, heavy momentum from lows to highs by the close — is the real deal? I would find that preposterous to conceive. This is late June, QE2 is almost done and the Fed is in no rush to usher in QE3. In fact, the Fed seems content to see the market tank, even crash, to justify any further fiat currency destruction, i.e. printing trillions more US Dollars.

Yet there are massive numbers in some of these equities/etfs. Are they spurred by high-frequency trading? Probably, but some of those are direct from the hedge funds, and moves on big volume don't lie in the near term. Usually.

I got out of FAZ despite my long-term pessimism about the debt crisis. I am not going to wait around and get cut to pieces by market momentum to the downside. But I am willing to re-enter FAZ once the financials' true colors show up vivid and bright again. Like maybe tomorrow morning. If Spain and Portugal opt for more austere routes, like Greece, that does NOT help US banksters one bit. So it can be possible for NBG to rocket higher on austerity measures while financials stateside swallow another plate of poison.

I looked hard at NBG before the close and had an order at 1.41, but never got it filled. Bad timing. Or good, depending on how the market follows through tomorrow. It could easily pull back into the 1.30s after today's robust gain. A tiny position would be interesting, but a fast move up isn't in the cards. I can see NBG at 2.00 in a few months, but the constant downturns of other banks will keep it leashed. A move to 2.50 or higher could happen within a year. A double is never a bad thing.





Apple held high ground even when the market was still down big. AAPL closed is at 330.20 after hours (+2.3%). Today's candlestick is not exactly bullish, but it is not bearish either.

Baidu has been bullish, as well, with good news earlier in the week. It wasn't long ago that BIDU split 3-for-1 and was sitting at 70. If there's a "safe" play in China, this would be one. Big Brother protects its little brothers.

LULU and other stocks look bullish, but in this bizarro market, LULU could easily lose its recent gains. That small float cuts both ways.

Silver was a roller coaster ride today. Silver Wheaton, like AAPL, showed strength when it was a sea of red. Net-net, SLW had slightly more volume and is up 1% to 33.13 after hours.

First Majestic (AG) also had a positive day (+0.8%) despite the pummeling on silver. Like Silver Wheaton, First Majestic's fundamental numbers are impressive, particularly in profit margin. I think that gets tampered with as energy prices fluctuate, but AG is still a solid miner.

I still like EXK (8.49 after hours), which was down nearly 1% but is still among the stronger plays this week among silver miners. 7.50 is support, and some shrewd traders got in at about 7.60 recently for this elevator ride.










AGQ, GPL, PAAS, SLV for your viewing.

 

 

ZSL was a solid play on the short side, but was well off its intraday high (19.11). ZSL is at 18.49 (+6.4%) after hours.

If the CME mafia continue to pull strings on silver, a little ZSL would make good protection.

DGP (double gold bull) looked horrible on the chart, big gap down on increased volume. If the puppet masters knock gold down, as I expect, to further their argument in favor of QE3, so be it. They will not and cannot hold gold down for long, though. Eventually, the debt crisis will overwhelm all factors, and the US will have to take severe action one way or another. Every way benefits real money: gold and silver. So I will hold my little position in DGP and continue to accumulate hard assets.

Rangold (GOLD) was a rarity today, a gold play that finished green (80.03, +0.5% after hours). I don't trade it, know little about it.

There were a few gold plays that showed some strength, like NGD.

GLD was GLD.

I still like Extorre Gold Mines (XG), even with its huge run in the past several months. They are great marketers and have been successful as of late with their finds in Argentina.










DZZ is one way to play a downturn in gold. GLL is another way (+3.7% today). On the whole, however, I don't plan to short gold. If I bet against anything, it would be the financials or silver, maybe the Nas (QID). I've never played QID, and unless there's a complete breakdown, I won't touch it. But the Nas does fall apart in a big way from time to time, so QID is worth keeping an eye on.

 

I'm mostly cash, same as the last several months. Small, but growing pile of physical metals.

Smelled good

3:13 am (Hawaii) Just before Trichet spoke, FAZ bumped up to 50.46 premarket. Then he said, indirectly, that interest rates are going up this summer in Euro land. Exactly when, he won't say. Bullish, just a bit, for financials. Bad for FAZ. I got out of that trade. The idea wasn't bad, but the timing was horrible. Buying at a top (yesterday) is never good, even when it turns profitable. that just sets up the next top buy, and inevitably, buying at the top often enough leads to destruction. I lost $315 on that trade, a small number percentage-wise (well below 1%) of my modest roll. But I had to get out. There is no catalyst to get FAZ moving in premarket, and none once the bell — and the hyperspeed deep-galaxy alien machines — start humming.

FAZ can edge higher from here. I considered a partial sell. But the added risk on the downside wasn't worth it. Just not enough buying pressure yet, so it could easily fall below 50 or 45.50. Live to fight another day.

Update 3:22 am (Hawaii) 56% of my Regular watch list is green, 31% red. Spot Silver inching higher. Spot Gold in range. In a rut. CSTR is up 4% on news that it is opening more than 1,000 kiosks in Safeway stores. MWW (+3.3%), MOS (+2.3%), LULU (+2%) all up. TVIX (-3.3%), ONW (-2.3%) and ZSL (-1.7%).

Metals list is 56% green, 23% red. TRE (+2.5%), EXK (+2.1%), XG (+1.8%), AGQ (+1.7%), GPL (+1.6%) all benefitting from an overdue bounce in silver plays. How long will this last? Almost all silver plays are green.

ZSL (-1.6%), DBB (-1.3%), COPX (-1.1%), JJC (-1.1%) are at the bottom.

Update 3:44 am (Hawaii) FAZ just did a major melt up and mini crash. Went from 50.02 to 50.75 just seven minutes after the opening bell. Then fell to 50.30 in the next few minutes. Wild. Probably purely mechanical, but I wonder how much of it was raised to clear out positions for big money that bought in late yesterday near the top. Now at 50.36. Without any expected news for financials, it'll hover here.

Might be time for me to hit the sack again. That was a hell of a feeling to see it go back to my entry point. I could've broke even, in theory. Moving on...

Update 3:57 am (Hawaii) The fall for FAZ is fugly, from 50.75 to 49.58. Waterfall. Dead cat bounce for the finnies: WFC (+1.7%), C (+1.3%), GS (+1.2%) BAC (+1%), JPM (+1%). NBG (+2.3%) up, too. The only one on my list of banks in the red is IRE (-3.1%).

AAPL getting rotten to the core?

3:34 am (Hawaii) Of course not. If you held from 95 (I didn't) or 214 (I didn't), then this reshuffling of the Nasdaq 100 won't worry you a bit. After all, even with shares down 1% to 337.66, AAPL is well within its trading range (326 to 365). It's the doldrums, for sure, with earnings reports weeks away and no catalyst to the upside in sight. I'm not about to dive into a huge position blindly here, but perspective is always handy.

The market has opened and 70% of my watch list is red. That's almost as extreme as it ever gets. EWJ was at the very bottom, so something's not going so well in Japan. Then GOOG took its place, down 1.9%, which is odd since the reshuffling of the Nasdaq 100 should benefit GOOG (and INTC and MSFT).

Silver's massive move up continued yesterday, as Turd Ferguson had prognosticated. But he also noted that 39 or 40 would be a ceiling. He said so in his latest video. PAAS, PHYS, SLW, all down in this early morning.

So what's working? CSTR is up 3%. WNR, the magic potion winner of Le Fly, is up again, now 18.62 (+0.9%). LULU and NFLX are up, too, which tells me that the bubble lives, at least for a few more minutes. Never a great sign when LULU and NFLX are among the winners. Toppy top top!

APC, F, VXX are up, which is interesting. So is EXK, so not all silver plays are tanking. This is a good morning to stay tuned in, relax in the upper deck, pick up the binoculars and wonder how such a great environment turned into the worst Final Four final in a generation. (And a mosh pit of a trading session.)

Dressing up

12 pm (Hawaii) So is this it? Has the end-of-month/end-of-quarter window dressing begun? When I hit the sack around 5 or 6 am Hawaii time (noonish Eastern), it seemed the market was going to drift in small currents forever. Of course, nothing stays the same in the market for long. The market went bozo bullish as I slept, sending 75% of my watch list to the green side after being inept earlier.

DJIA 12,279 (+0.67%), Nasdaq 2,756 (+0.96%), S&P 500 1,319 (+0.71%). Again, volume wasn't impressive, but it was about 20% higher in the "axis" of stocks, AAPL. Monday was a low in volume for the year. Tuesday saw more action. Wednesday is the 30th of March and Thursday is the end of the month. I'd say odds are 70% that window dressing has begun. By that math, the edge is 40% (70 vs. 30), but am I willing to indulge myself with 40% of my roll in play? Or to be risk-addicted about it, place some bets that allow for 40% swing down? Yes to the former and no the latter. We're still somewhat toppy here and the chances of a) a selloff after window dressing and b) negative news about QE3 would easily send the market down the mountain like a wild eagle pushing goats off the ledge.

For now, however, just about everything finished green today, and big on the win side. WNR gained 1.9% to 17.10 after being in red early. Le Fly wins again on his call for oil refiners to slice through any market turmoil. He's right.

AAPL, which sold off to a hair above 346 early, is at 351.30 in afterhours trading. My position in AAPL at the end of last week was opened at 346.75 and I sold at 350.65, which clearly is a range within the larger range (326 to 365). There are too many AAPL bulls who want this stock to lift, for the PE to hit 25 or 27 or 30, and that would be fair. But with the slowdown due to Japan's tragedy, I really don't see any eye-popping sales numbers in the near term. Demand huge, but customers will have to wait. AAPL will be fine long term, but it just won't hit 400 as soon as I or anyone else had expected.

This is not a bad thing. I could buy at 345 (mid-point of the larger range) and sell at 350 over and over again without extreme concern over risk. I didn't do it today, but it's there. What other stock are you going to ride as comfortably? CHGS? LULU?

CHGS 3.54 (+20.4%), MCP 60.10 (+8.3%), CLNE 15.20 (+4.8%), LULU 89.37 (4.8%), CMG 268.00 (+3.9%), RLOC 20.55 (+3.2%), VLO 30.50 (+3.2%), AMZN 174.62 (+3.1%), EXK 9.28 (+3.1%), YZC 34.50 (+2.9%). It goes on and on. Huge gains for momo stocks. Silver plays. Even coal (YZC). China is in heat. US stocks hot, and that's with crude oil up. UCO is at 54.78 (+1.7%).

It almost didn't matter what people bought today. The bull gored every bear in sight. Big losers on my watch list were TVIX 37.49 (-5.5%), EDZ 19.12 (-3.3%), DG 30.52 (-3.1%), TZA 36.84 (-3%), VXX 29.95 (2.7%), QID 51.65 (-1.9%). Also OPEN 102.90 (-1.3%). OPEN's huge run had to stop for a breather at some point.

I wouldn't be shocked if the market reverses before tomorrow's opening bell. There's still time for hedgies to take it down fast and still re-enter before the end of the month. Unlikely, but entirely possible. I'll be waiting for a unlikely discount on my favorite plays with 100% loaded gunpowder.

Peaks, valleys and necklines

3 am (Hawaii) Examining AAPL and QID from yesterday's afterhours trading and this morning's premarket action, QID is roughly where it was at yesterday's AH close, 52.79.

AAPL, however, is among the bottom-feeders on my watch list so far today at 347.71, down 0.78%. It gives me a little more credence in my theory about the trading range, 326 to 365. The midpoint of that range is 345.5, and though volume and momentum always fluctuate without clear, definite reason, the price tells so much. Price is one of the reasons why I'll check futures and stock prices before I catch up on global or domestic news.

In a skittish, flimsy market like this, we have peaks and valleys often based on nothing more than big-money manipulation. When the hedgies have had their fill at the AAPL buffet line, they dive out of the building after setting the gas lines on fire, and all us little peasants are still in the line, loading up on fattening desserts like the fine gluttons we are. This is why I'm always wary about AAPL above 350 and always willing to consider a position below 345. It's a chickenpoop approach, you might say, but I'd rather manage risk and ride it between 340 and 350 than buy above 350 with such thin volume.

Elephants on melting ice. Bad combination. Everything sinks to the bottom of that cold pond when the elephants dance too hard.

In an environment like this, issues like CHGS go flying to the moon. CHGS (China Gengsheng Minerals) was up more than 20% earlier in PM but has pulled back a bit and is now at 3.45. CAUTION advised. Don't get caught in that tsunami now that the early traders have begun booking big profits. You could get swallowed up and pummeled a loss far larger than you ever feared. If you go XL on CHGS, please for mercy's sake have the sense to hedge your bet with puts. Protect your ass. The market never will do so much for you.

LULU is also up, 2.15% to 87.10. Another sign that this market is in risky territory. A LULU top is often followed by a painful pullback for those who are all-in.

UCO flat. EXK, PASS, SLW, SLV all flat. GLD and NGD are fractionally down, too.

Times like this, in between earnings seasons, media has little to do but dwell on danger spots. There is no catalyst in the short term for AAPL or any other substantial mover. Daytraders will move in and out quickly, sending the CHGS and LULU stocks of the world soaring, then right down off a cliff.

Still 100% cash and watching with another wondrous piece of technology.

Necklines? I know it's not just me noticing that CNBC has Mark Haynes off-air (vacation?) and in his place is a blonde anchorwoman with big hair and a seriously low neckline. Probably the most boobage seen on CNBC since that Hugh Hefner special. Or that porn industry documentary. Comparing ratings today versus when Haynes is on air would be interesting. 

Some Amanda Drury photos off Google. 

Maybe she doesn't mind being eye candy. Otherwise, at what point does she tell the producer, "Bugger off, bitch!" 

Zero Hedge: NYSE reports third-highest net margin debt amount ever (Mar 29 2011)

Marlboro Monday

11:30 am (Hawaii) This is the kind of session that would have a grizzled old trader taking occasional smoke breaks, leaning against the wall of an aging walk-up, peering at the empty parking lots across the street, contemplating the taste of a fine Scotch brandy on his taste buds.

It was that kind of a day, it seems. I got up around 8 am Hawaii time (2 pm Eastern) after a tiring Sunday to see the market teetering on low volume. Then AAPL nosedived from 353 to 350 in minutes. QID zoomed. I thought about a quick trade in QID, but it was already at 52.50 by then. It moved up close to 53 before the close and is now at 52.82 afterhours.

End-of-month window dressing is coming, but that's not for another day or two (or three), so I'm guessing the hedgies bailed out late today, looking for cheaper prices later in the week. Then it'll be a rush to get back into AAPL, NFLX, etc.

LULU took off like crazy, gaining 10.1% to 86.59 as the indices all fell into the red. Lululemon Athletica announced a 2-for-1 split, which is nice. It's a great move in anticipation of a market breakdown, which could happen if there's no QE3. Other gainers were EGPT (+3.3 to 15.97), NFLX (+3.2% to 237.30) and China coal play YZC (+2.6% to 33.52). CLNE, PSUN, TVIX and OPEN were other gainers on my watch list, which is overall 37% green and 63% red in AH.

Silver took a beating today: EXK (-3.1% to 9.00), PAAS (-2.5% to 36.28), SLW (-2.2% to 42.82). UCO also got slammed (-3.1% to 54.14). Another crude oil play, refiner WNR (-1.4% to 16.79), was red.

Volume is thin ice and there are a lot of elephants still out there skating under a hot sun. One small fart and the stampede could kick in. I'm 100% cash and watching from far away with a magnificent telescope.

Mapping it out

1:57 pm (Hawaii). AAPL trading at 334.20 as afterhours trading winds up. That's more than a 50% retrace from today's high since yesterday's close. A number of charts look interesting. Examining the candlesticks is a healthy way to view the market and sectors, eliminating whatever emotion or bias that may exist.

AAPL reaching toward 50-day MA (rope of hope)

after dipping to the 100-day MA

Selling pressure in AAPL the past two days

Since the initial dip, EWJ has hovered around 10

The Fukushima disaster had EWJ at support;

another setback could test 8 or lower

Yen is king for now

FXY at historic highs

FXY 10 day

CRR benefits from Middle East chaos

CRR benefits from Japan's nuclear energy shutdown

but talk about wild swings to the upside

UCO's wild roller coaster ride

Few have told a market top tale like LULU

NFLX, another overbought stock

The upgrade this week saved its ass

Since doubling in less than 6 months, 

SLW has been range-bound

TVIX is live dynamite in your hands

Last to hold gets kablooeyed

Food inflation is bad for peasants (me) but

good for MOS, which is at support

MOS 5 day is a daytrader's fun toy