Simple as ABC?

1:17 am (Hawaii) I like my little charts and trendlines and megaphone and pennant patterns. I like candlesticks too, however reliable (or not) they may be. But it's fun now and then to visit American Bulls for their view of stocks. Here's what they say through their candlestick analysis as of Wed Oct 19:

AAPL - Sell confirmed
AGQ - Sell confirmed
DGP - Sell confirmed
SPY - Sell-if...
QQQ - Sell-if...
QID - Buy confirmed
FCX - Wait
EUO - Buy confirmed

Isn't this interesting? All the indicators (at least in my book) of a bullish short-term view are negative, from AAPL to precious metals to bear indice ETFs. So how about financials?

FAS - Buy-if...
FAZ - Buy-if...

So that confirms the confusion and hesitancy of not just me, but of plenty of traders and investors regarding the banks. No surprise that the bank stocks remain choppy, range-bound and largely untouched lately. Or is that really the case?

BAC - Buy-if...
AIG - Sell-if...
C - Sell-if...
GS - Sell-if...
JPM - Buy-if...
MS -  Sell-if...

Less positive than I expected. I don't like the banksters, but even this is more bearish than I would've guessed just by the way they've held up through the past week with JPM and GS announcing far less stellar earnings than expected.

NBG - Wait
IRE - Wait
DB - Buy-if...

There are more Eurozone banks but that's enough. As I fall asleep for the night (and premarket opens in 30 minutes), I'm content to stay the heck out for today. The most bullish thing that could happen is Merkel and Sarkozy release the details of their grand plan to save the European monetary system. That would take the US market and precious metals higher since printing all that fiat money will be nothing but a short-term fix. Then the junkie becomes more dependent on the juice (fiat printing).

Wednesday cinema & library (updated 115 am HST)

Update 11:45 am (Hawaii) I urge you to give Scott Bleier's latest post a read: 'The entire rally is bullshit'.

"All the low volume volatility of recent weeks has served to scare the remaining individual investors out of the game. The rest of the market has become dominated and overpowered by the correlation between currencies, commodities, stocks and bonds. The programs work in milliseconds to run over any intra-market movements with instantaneous results. By the time you hear or read the news, the market move is over and you as an investor are forced to chase."

Found in the comments of Bleier's blog: Fed/POMO buying $44 billion in Treasurys this month, up from the usual $14-16 billion.

6:35 am (Hawaii) Started this yesterday, but the eyelids wouldn't stay open, so now it's a Wednesday edition. It's been a relatively quiet week of ups (two tiny profit trades on Monday) and one butchered trade on Tuesday. I got FAS at 12.99 before the bell, it went to 13.08 and I debated whether to sell immediately or put in a trailing stop. While I debated myself, it sank to 13.05, then 12.95, then to 12.60. I got out at 12.68 for a small loss. Again, it's not wise to enter late and wing it. Always have a stop in the final minutes of the session especially after the machines have taken anything more than 5% or 10% higher.

It was due for a major selloff and I screwed up. Protect protect protect.

Blogs

(new) RajunCajun: Not feeling it (Oct 19)

(new) Le Fly: Mandatory listening (Oct 19)

Scott Bleier: The entire rally is bullshit (Oct 19)

Zero Hedge: FT reports Europe to sacrifice banks to bail out sovereigns (Oct 19)

Le Fly: Zero reasons to be long (Oct 19)

Zero Hedge: Now Bundestag demands a say (Oct 19)

Zero Hedge: Latest European (fake?) news: EFSF talks have stalled (Oct 19)

Turd Ferguson: Beyond the pale (Oct 19)

Golden Truth: This is why we own gold - 10,000 reasons (Oct 19)

Reggie Middleton: The only investment/research house to warn of Apple miss vindicated (Oct 18)

Reggie Middleton: Just as predicted, world's first FDIC insured hedge fund takes fat loss (Oct 18)

Le Fly: Burn it all to the ground! (Oct 18)

Turd Ferguson: Silver bull market of 2012 (Oct 18)

Golden Truth: Bank of America takes sleaze to new level (Oct 18)

Golden Truth: Bank of America takes accounting fraud a step further (Oct 18)

Chris Duane (Silver Shield): Great minds think alike? (Oct 18)

Vlogs

UKIP: Nigel Farage - Standing up for British business (Oct 19)

DEMCAD: Bank of America on verge of failure? (Oct 19)

ScrapGoldBusiness: Is JP Morgan ready to crash silver again? (Oct 19)

endlessmountain: Silver Log - Midweek report (Oct 19)

Christopher Greene: I am extremely concerned (Oct 19)

Casey Research: Guest Rick Rule (Oct 19)

Casey Research: Guest Eric Sprott (Oct 19)

Hit the Bid: Krull to Arms - Is your Mac working? (Oct 19)

drutter: Occupy Vancouver, silver canoe porn (Oct 18)

Chris Garcia: Gold and silver news (Oct 18)

StreetMoney21: Bank of America - Are they getting ready to soak US taxpayers again? (Oct 18)

Keiser Report: Live by fraud, die by fraud (Oct 18)

silverfuturist: Silver to peak 2017-20? (Oct 16)

Audio

Peter Schiff: Guest Sen. Rand Paul (Oct 19)

Chris Martenson: Guest Nate Hagens (Oct 19)

Mainstream

(video) Reuters: Difficult for EU bailout fund to cover Italy & Spain - poll (Oct 19)

(video) Press TV: Max Keiser: 'US bankers stole billions' (Oct 19)

(video) Euronews: EU probes interbank lending rates (Oct 19)

(video) RT: First video of Athens night clashes as Greece fights austerity (Oct 19)

Reuters: Morgan Stanley can thank brokerage, banking (Oct 19)

Bloomberg: BofA said to split regulators over moving Merrill derivatives to bank unit (Oct 18)

CNBC: Apple misses big on earnings, shares tumble (Oct 18)
CNBC: Greeks work hard, so why is there a debt crisis? (Oct 18)

Paul Farrell: Weiss: EU bank failures will crash Wall St - again (Oct 18)

Globe and Mail: Sprott makes bet on different kind of bank (Oct 17)

Eye candy

Street Low: Carnales Unidos Car Show (Oct 19)

Street Low: Models dancing at Carnales Unidos Car Show (Oct 18)

Street Low: LuxuriouS CC, Mike's Beef n' Brew Car & Bike Show (Oct 18)

Rome is not burning - yet

5:34 am (Hawaii) This may or may not have anything to do with the market or FAZ, but it's intriguing to imagine what more of this portends for bankster stocks in the very near future. Students in Italy protesting at Goldman Sachs in Milan.

DCA FAZ? (updated 1032 am HST)

5:12 am (Hawaii) Sure I thought about it yesterday. After three days of buying FAZ late in the session, why stop yesterday? FAZ was cheaper than it's been in weeks. Six of the seven previous sessions had FAZ much, much lower, below 49 intraday yesterday. But I expected JPM to knock it out of the park with their earnings report this morning.

Another late night at work. I get to be right away, around midnight. I never thought to set the alarm for 1:00 am Hawaii time and hear about JPM's announcement. They missed? Are you kidding? That set the stage for FAZ, which had closed just below 51 yesterday. FAZ popped in premarket (2:00 am HST) to 52+. I was sound asleep. Otherwise, I would've opened a position.

So I just got up and now FAZ is at 55+ even after a minor selloff. This turn of events is really shocking. Not only did it give FAZ the push and fuel it needed to gap up today, it gives the price a desperately needed bounce on the technicals. I can't say the chart "never lies" but in this case, this was due, even though I saw a real possibility of FAZ going to much lower support levels. One way to beat price gyrations is to add shares without timing, just dollar cost average. Sounds crazy with a 3x monster like FAZ, but buying at 50 and 55 will probably turn into a nice profit eventually. Waiting for 37 (one-year low) might not work as well.

FAZ is up 9% already today. The Dow is down well over 100 points. Not the optimum time to step in but it won't get a whole lot cheaper. Might wait for East Coast lunch hour to see how FAZ trades next. FAS vs FAZ today is a first round knocktout. I never would've thunk it. JPM went down for the count. Could there be a surprise in the financials the next week or two with more earnings reports? Doesn't seem likely, does it?

Holding my nose as I enter small...

Update 5:28 am FAZ at 55.40 level. A Fib retracement of this morning's gain would bring FAZ down to 54.04. That's a 38.2% drop. I don't expect more than that. Other stocks might pull back 50% or 61.8% or more. FAZ? Nope.

Update 5:32 am I'm looking a little more at this morning's action in FAZ. How the hell did it stay below 53 until after the opening bell? It was as low as 52.30 about 20 minutes before the bell. That's not bad, a 2% gain over yesterday's close, but really. I'm still all cash, watching FAZ dip slowly. Waiting for 54.04. Not expecting it, but it's near lunch hour and sometimes opportunity enters.

Update 5:45 am Still not in FAZ. Still being patient. Waiting for opportunity. FAZ wouldn't dip below 54.32 on an earlier, small selloff, so why would it drop to 54.04 or so? Just hoping lunch hour does the trick. I've written countless times that FAZ will go to 100 given all the realities of this effed up monetary system. I just thought it might dip to 55, 50, 44 or even 42 first. I guess the high 48s was as low as it goes. Still wondering if there's any trickeration left in the banksters' sleeves.

1-minute chart with a bunch of uncertainty at 55.15.

Update 5:57 am String of indecision on the 5-minute candles starting at 11:25 am Eastern. FAZ now at 55.10. Still waiting.

Update 6:32 am Still waiting, though at 12:33 pm Eastern, FAZ has moved back up to 55.50. HOD is 55.95 and a move above that will spur more buying as the Dow drops again, now -121. My preference for 54.04 is just fading hope.

FAZ 15-minute: retracement watch

From 51.11 (yesterday's close) to 55.95 (today's high).

I prefer an entry around 54.04 (Fib pullback).

After declining from 81 to sub 49 in seven sessions,

55-56 is probably a bargain. 

Update 6:42 am What a difference a day makes. Looks like financials shot their load yesterday after a massive one-week run. So far today? RBS -7.5%, JPM -6.5%, -DB -6.5%, C -6.2%, MS -6%, IRE -6%, BAC -6%, SCGLY -5.7%, AIG -4.9%, BBVA -4%, GS -3.7%, STD -1.4%, HBC -1.2%, NBG -0.4%. 

FAZ is at 55.45, +8.5%. 

Update 7:10 am Top of the hour to now, FAZ declining. Price is coming in toward my desired entry point. The speed of the drop is almost breathtaking though. Profit-taking yes. CNBC (Pisani) talking up JPM's increased Visa revenues may have factored in. Fib 38.2% retrace of today's gain: 54.04. A Fib 50% retrace: 53.53. Give or take a few cents.

FAZ 30-minute

54.04 entry? 

53.53 would be next

Update 7:46 am Buy order at 54.04 executed. Might regret this. Again, 50% retracement of today's gain in FAZ is 53.53 and a 61.8% retrace goes to 52.96.

Position is small, still debating whether to add at 53.53 if the opportunity is presented. Might just exit and wait for 52.96.

FAZ 30-minute

Added horizontal lines to clarify my Fib levels:

54.04, 53.53, 52.96.

Anything lower would be nicer.

Update 7:59 am FAZ rose to around 54.40, hovering lower now. Stop order is in at 54.14. If FAZ pulls back, I'll sell with a teeny profit and price would likely come back to my 54.04 entry point. Then I'd wait for 53.53 or 52.96.

Thought this was fitting. The Monopoly game is back at McDonald's. Banksters everywhere campaign.

Update 8:21 am Stopped out of FAZ at 54.07, break-even trade. Looking at 53.53 here (50% retracement of today's gain) for a re-entry point. Not setting a buy order yet, though. Definitely not looking at FAS. Today's news out of JPM casts a shadow over the sector's earning reports in the next week.

Update 8:49 am Plunge-o. FAZ falls through 54.04 and straight to 53.53. Not buying yet. Back up to 53.75. I'll wait this out a bit. A 50% retrace of today's gain might be a crucial pivot point. It touched 53.53 for just seconds before rising higher again. But if bankster stocks rally, these Fib levels won't matter. Ah, 52+ in premarket would've been sweet...

Update 8:55 am 

FAZ 30-minute

Bounced off 53.53ish level

Falling back to 53.53 level, then to 53.38 seconds later

Next Fib level to watch is 52.96. Anything below that and all bets are off for me. I'm all cash and I wouldn't touch FAZ if it sells off below that level. 

Update 9:06 am Dow rally, -11 now. FAZ plunges below 53. That was quick. Just watching here. How does JPM's failed numbers translate into a rally for the market and bankster stocks? Not looking for an answer. Just trying to stay ahead of the madness.

Update 9:08 am FAZ: stay out for awhile. Dropped to 52.62.

FAZ 30-minute

Giving up a majority of today's gain.

Funny money or not, the market is getting some PPT fuel

to save the banksters from further bleeding.

Or something very similar.

Update 9:26 am Back in FAZ, small position, at 54.00. The move from 52.62 to 54+ on strong volume was persuasive. Dow back to -57. Tight stop in place.

FAZ 30-minute

Fib level 52.96 sorta held after a dip to 52.62.

Stop in place.

Time for a break. 

Update 9:49 am Added more FAZ at 54.15 before I walked away for a few minutes. Moved my stop up, a little tighter.

Update 9:57 am Stopped out 53.60, small loss. Volume into the close fairly strong as FAZ declined a bit. Dow -39. Content to be all cash overnight.

Update 10:08 am So did FAZ hold Fib levels today? Yes and no. 54.04 didn't last. Neither did 53.53. 52.96 succumbed, but that was temporary and FAZ rode higher to 54.42. The dip going into the closing bell raises a few questions, but price is still above the 50% retracement level, which for me is slightly bullish for FAZ.

Is holding FAZ overnight through financials earnings season worth it? FAZ was at 51.11 yesterday, opened premarket at 52+, and ran to 55.95. Majority of the run came after premarket began even though it was King Kong JPM that disappointed. Waiting for premarket is probably the best method. On the other hand, FAZ had sold down six of the previous seven sessions, was at a recent low and was due for a bounce off 51 (or yesterday's intraday low below 49). At 53+, still bouncing?

FAZ 30-minute

Settling into a level that's slightly bullish.

Update 10:28 am Back in FAZ 54.42. Fitch putting some Euro banks on downgrade watch per CNBC. I'd like this position to stand through the next week and beyond on the way to 100, but I have no problem getting out on a move lower. These small losses in the 50s pale in comparison to an entry point below 50 (or 40) and a climb back to the high (81) or above.

Update 10:32 am CNBC: 7 global banks put on "ratings watch negative" by Fitch, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley in the US, BMP Paribas, Barclays, Credit Suisse and Deutche Bank in Euroland.

No burying gold for long

photo: MSNBC

10:36 am (Hawaii) Gold continues to show a tendency to quietly draw attention from near and far, high and low. Spot is at 1567, slightly off its high of the day. Spot silver recovered some today after yesterday's butchery by CME mafia. It opened lower, giving friends of JP Morgan and the govt ample opportunity to collect more silver at discounted prices. Why offer your friends a gift at all-time highs (50+) when you can give them a price at a 30% discount (35)? Yeah, it's a theory, but until we straighten things out with our creditors, there's no quicker way to appease them than by keeping silver price low as possible without inciting deadly riots in every major American city.

It's one of the few mechanisms left to the puppet masters, so applaud them for their concerted, if short-sighted attempts. Thank them for lower physical prices.

The flight to gold helped miners, naturally. XG ran as high as 14.67 before pulling back a bit as daytraders cashed out. The presence of metal royalty like Eric Sprott in the stock only solidifies the foundation. Getting out of AGQ yesterday and holding XG didn't take much thought. They — the puppeteers — will bitch slap silver in a way that they would never do to gold for very long.

XG up 3.3% (14.50 afterhours). DGP up 1.5% to 50.79. I've held this through some minor ups and downs. No plans to sell in the near term.

After rallying to the plus side, the indices finished down. DJ -58.88 (-0.5%), Nas -20.71 (-0.7%), S&P -5.85 (-0.4%).

AAPL finished down by a fraction after being up most of the day. AMZN, also down fractionally. BIDU down 2.3% after a nice run. Also down just by a hair, NFLX (290.50).

As for the banksters: NBG (+2.5%), BBVA (+0.8%) were up. IRE (-3.8%), C (-1.8%), BAC (-1.3%), GS (-1.2%). FAZ swung from a big early gain down into the red before finishing at 46.80 (+0.8%). Moody's downgrade Ireland govt bonds today. Story in the NY Times.

This is the roller coaster of trading in — for or against — bank stocks. Anything can alter direction. I would love to be a zillionaire and bet on FAZ big time, not worry about a paper loss for a day or two. I don't have that luxury, so I sit here and whine about it on a blog. Though Obama is long treasurys, I still wouldn't bet on the banksters with my own money. There is no long-term solution to the currency/inflation crisis. Just a bunch of stop-gap tactics.

I wish I still had my shares of FAZ at 43.33. End whine.

Banksters Paradise

4:51 am (Hawaii) Got up at 2 am, but stayed in bed, got more zzz's and just got up again now. My Metals watch list was majority green, but my Regular watch list is 68% green, 31% red. My Debt Spiral list is 82% green with BBVA (+6.9%), NBG (+5.4%), STD (+5.1%) leading the way. When Euro banks are up like this in the midst of a potentially cataclysmic destruction, there must've been a miraculous save.

Guess it's time to turn on the TV.

GS (+1.6%), JPM (+1.6%), C (+1.4%) and BAC (+0.9%) are also up. Happy times and Friday night parties in store for the banksters.

Other big gainers are AZK (+4.7%), NGD (+3.3%), PSUN (+2.8%), CHGS (+2.5%), LULU (+2.2%), MWW (+2.1%), HAIN (+1.8%). In other words, the miners and corporations that are not humongous are getting a big lift.

Crude oil, per Obama's command, is down. That means SCO is up (+3.1%). As for more metal plays, PSAU (+2.6%), NUGT (+2.3%), GOLD (+2.2%), GDXJ (+2.2%), EXK (+1.9%), AG (+1.9%), CU (+1.8%). Many others are above +1%. AGQ is up 1%.

EXK looks tempting after a long decline. XG is flat at 11.24 while most gold plays are up.

Getting hit hard are GPL (-3.5%), which had risen big while the other silver miners were ambushed in the past week. Also down are DUST, MCP, DZZ, ZSL (-1.2%), GLL.

AAPL is down 0.5% to 323.51, but is off its low of 320.46.

Interesting morning. Indices: Dow +95 (+0.8%), Nas +9.50 (+0.3%), S&P +9.81 (+0.8%).

Need to look at volume. Regardless of today's gains, they are temporary until all of the PIIGS commit to balancing their budgets. This is, however spun, another way to mask the inevitable pain of austerity, just another stall tactic that strategic traders are playing for the morning.

Reuters: Wall St rises on hint of Greece plan, data helps (June 17 2011)
Financial Times: Germany retreats over deal for Greece (June 17 2011)

Thesis and substance

6:41 am (Hawaii) It helps tremendously to back up a thesis with some commitment, if just a partial position. I seem to lack the cajones to do this, apparently. FAZ is one of the preferred vehicles of choice in this June swoon. Come on, didn't you think most traders would run from the possibility of no QE3? I did. But I bought FAZ at near a recent high, then sold yesterday at a loss. The one day in the past week it drops, and I sell. (Last week, I bought at 46.40 and sold at a small loss, too.)

So much for thesis. Finnies? GS (-0.3%), BAC (-1.5%), JPM (-1.7%), C (-1.8%), NBG (-2.8%), STD (-3.3%), IRE (-6.2%). They'll slide and more banks will close, but it's all just a path to consolidation. What the big money lacks in breadth and depth, it will hold even more in the way of pure power. If things get to that dire scenario — hyperinflation, no cash in the ATMs, etc. — it'll still be important to be self-sufficient. But even if things don't get extreme, I still don't trust them banksters. They could jack up service fees far beyond what they do today, always to the brink of pissing the public off, but never too far. They need to keep us borderline solvent, the better to bleed us to death over time. That's why I'm figuring out how much actual fiat, physical metal, food and ammo to have on hand before things get to that point. It's a necessity I don't like.

I just woke up to find FAZ at 51.63, which would've been a paper profit of about $475 or so. Pretty decent. But since I lack commitment in my thesis, it's just chatter. 21% of my Metals list is green. 79% red. This was expected. Yesterday's dead-cat bounce came on horribly low volume. Today's volume is stronger; we're only halfway through and most stocks/etfs are close or above yesterday's totals.

MCP, which is up 2.8%, has strong volume today. XG is up 3.2%. But most of the green gainers on the Metals list are bear plays. ZSL (+5.1%), DUST (+2.9%), FSG (+2.1%), DZZ (+1.4%).

Still 90% cash with a small position in DGP. If Spot Gold (1535) and Silver (36.66) can't regain today's smallish decline, I'll look to add physical below 1520 and 34. Summer and gold have not been a good combination for the past two years, but conditions are exacerbated this time. Picking my spots.

Friday forkway

3:15 am (Hawaii). Up. Down. Left. Right. Spend. Hoard.

America is at an economic crossroads today. Depending on who you believe, we are on the brink of prosperity (again). So says Alan Greenspan, per CNBC this morning. "Momentum" is with the improving U.S. economy, he says. Then you have precious metal bugs, some who are heavily invested in gold, silver, ammunition and years worth of canned food, who believe the U.S. dollar is doomed.

All I care about is making a smart trade. One at a time. I've missed the ride up with AAPL despite my bullishness about the stock and company. With 20 minutes until the non-farm payrolls report, AAPL is trading a buck higher in premarket at 360+. It was a couple of weeks ago, when Steve Jobs was spotted at the doctor's office, when I got out at this price. I knew the public would overreact. "He's at the doctor? OMG!" Well, shares dipped much lower from there as hedge funds took profits. Now things are so much better, a catalyst is in play and a new trading range is being formed.

Premarket, 60% of my watch list is green, 22% red, 18% flat.

NGD +6.4%, UCO +2%, EXK +1.7%, PAAS 1.4%, USO +1.1%, FCX +1%, SLW +0.9%, SLV +0.8%

TVIX -7.5%, CLNE -1%, GMCR -0.9%, CSTR -0.8%, OPEN -0.7%, LVS -0.6%, VZ -0.4%, QID -0.3%

Update, 3:41 am (Hawaii). Non-farms payroll report was ho-hum. In line, according to CNBC.

AAPL has retraced more than half of its premarket gain, now 360.33. I don't feel confident about entering here, however. Wait-and-see mode.

Update, 3:50 am (Hawaii). Watch list still mostly green: 51% positive, 33% neg, 16% neutral. Crude oil futures are above 103. Is there a surer bet out there? Maybe AAPL. The assurance from Libya's rebel leader that they will fight to the death probably put the spike in today's price.

NGD +2.4%, UCO +2.3%, USO +1.5%, PAAS +1.4%, EXK +1.2%, SLW +0.9%, SLV +0.8%, LULU +0.7%, FCX +0.6%, APC +0.5%

GS -1.3%, C -1.1%, GMCR -0.9%, CSTR -0.8%, OPEN -0.7%, TVIX -0.6%

Update, 3:59 am (Hawaii). Divergence in gold and silver. While gold, Dow Jones, S&P and Nasdaq futures have eroded in the past hour, silver headed higher. Weirdness.

Update, 4:02 am (Hawaii). Watch list bullishness declining still. 47% green, 35% red, 18% flat. 

Update, 4:22 am (Hawaii). Crude oil is a tempting play (again), but it's important to remember that many of the oil crises of years past were stopped in their tracks by the presence of the US armed forces. Total Investor noted this yesterday in a thorough examination of crude prices before and after American intervention. UCO dipped to about 54.50, close to the 50% retracement of today's premarket gain, but has bounced and is now back up to 54.80. Considerable as a daytrade. but probably too late now.


Update, 5:16 am (Hawaii). Not sure who the gold analyst/bull was, but he showed up on CNBC 30 or 45 minutes ago and noted that Mark Haynes had been negative on gold when he was on the show several months ago. Haynes was pissed, but his body language said it all: it was the truth.

Silver futures chart online is behind most other charts by 15 minutes. This divergence began as silver hit $35. Not sure why, but anything is possible. Gold was fresh and live, but not silver. SLW cracked 45 for the first time, making me regret selling at 43.10 on Wednesday. EXK, PAAS, SLV also doing extremely well.

NGD, UCO, and now TVIX atop my list. So is NFLX, which had been beaten down recently. Not touching that, but the metal plays and UCO continue to appeal to me.

50% retracement levels (on today's gains): SLW 44.37, UCO 54.44. SLW actually dipped to retrace level at 44.36, but I froze up. On cue, SLW ran up immediately back toward 45. My loss.

Hi Ho Silver!

Update, 6:02 am (Hawaii). Most mornings, I'd be in bed by now, peacefully asleep. This time, even without Red Bull, I'm wide awake. The precious metals, silver in particular, are screaming out loud. It's an ecstatic sound. I'm not in, no skin in, all cash. But it's an amazing move up for silver. It makes me remember that though the masses (like me) are interested now, the huge move in the past year probably means silver is nearing a top at some point. Could be next week. Maybe next month or next year. But irrational exuberance is nearing.

EXK exploded above 9 to an HOD of 9.22, now at 9.10. PAAS +3.1%. SLV +2.8%. SLW +2.2%, well off its HOD of 45.13, now 44.68. I want a position at 44.37 (50% retracement of today's gain).

In all, my watch list is 56% green, 41% red. Markets are generally slightly red. AAPL is back in the green, just barely, at 359.59. Needed a breather after that nice move the past couple of days.

UCO still appealing, though I wouldn't want to hold over the weekend if naval ships from around the world converge on Libya. But who knows? Maybe Quadaffi blows up every oil field out of spite.

Update 3:35 pm (Hawaii). Selloff. Upside for precious metals, crude oil. And it would've been more extreme if not for the strange moves. Artificial intelligence, indeed.

Saved by the bell?

Does it matter?

AAPL may never see 350 again

Movin' on up no matter the manipulation stateside

Up up up

Absolutely untainted by equity manipulation

Pump on Fast Money didn't hurt either

All indications point toward continued stampede-like behavior in crude and PMs. How did JP Morgan not pull the rug out on PMs by yesterday or today? Are they shackled now? Is silver going to hit $40 next week? 

I have a very hard time believing that the dollar will implode, that the puppet masters won't pull the rug out from the masses (moving into PMs) soon. Real soon. I hope it doesn't happen that way. Where else is the small-fry citizen to trade or invest when all else is failing? Shorting equities is dangerous with QE2 at full bore. Metals make sense, but strange things happen overnight, or over a weekend. 

In other words, I trust no one. To those of have the gumption to go long silver (rather than sell early as I did), a toast to you. And a merry weekend, also. I caught a bit of a ride on SLV last week, but missed the ride to 34.87 (after hours today). UCO was appealing, but I stayed out and it closed AH at 56.50 today (5.3%). Big cajones means you were still long EXK (+12.2%), which closed AH at 9.36 today. 

EXK 9.36 (+12.2%), UCO 56.50 (+5.3%), NGD 10.79 (+5.2%), SLV 34.93 (+4.5%), NFLX 211.80 (+4.1%), TVIX 42.74 (+4.1%), SLW 45.15 (+3.3%), PAAS 39.70 (+3.2%), CRR 122.90 (+3.2%)

FAS 30.69 (-3.7%), CLNE 13.51 (-2.9%), C 4.55 (-2.8%), VCLK 14.80 (-2.4%), GS 160.80 (-2.2%), EGPT 17.57 (-2.1%), F 14.45 (-2.1%), X 55.70 (-1.9%), GOOG 600.24 (-1.5%), FCX 51.69 (-1.4%), TBT 38.78 (-1.3%)

All (mainly) because of Libya and the contagion of protest across the Middle East. The violence. Quaddafi. But intervention is imminent. Them big ships loaded to the gills with peacemaking weaponry are closing in on Libya sooner or later. Crude will return to 'normalcy.' 

Didn't trade today. I'm starting to realize that even when the direction of the market is fairly clear, the artificial vapors are affecting my judgment. Otherwise I would've jumped in when SLW pulled back roughly 50% on today's gain. I would've trusted what I've seen and bought UCO. I definitely would've opened a UCO position as a hedge if I were long AAPL. Instead, I stayed all cash, as I have since early in the week. 

A coward, yes, but a coward who can relax this weekend and return Monday morning fully locked and loaded. Takes a bit of a twisted mind to attack this particular market. Will work on that this weekend. 

Friday reading
AP: Oil settles at highest level since Sept. 2008 (Mar 4 2011) "Oil prices rose past $104 a barrel to end the week at a 29-month high..."

AP: Burst of hiring could mark turning point for jobs (Mar 4 2011)

The Telegrah: Libyan rebels vow 'victory or death' (Mar 4 2011)

King World News: John Hathaway: $50 to $60 silver, US dollar in danger (Mar 3 2011) "If we have a continuation of QE2 past June 30th, I wouldn't be surprised to see silver in the $50, $60 an ounce territory. PMs and oil top the list in what is becoming, apparently, an every-other-day switcheroo between equities and metals/oils.

The Fly: Yelp is a partner of Open Table, i.e. Asshat of the Week Award to Herb Greenberg/Brad Safalow (Mar 3 2011) "You f**king imbecile, Yelp is a partner of OPEN's. And, to top it off, the only relevent website that could ever threaten OPEN's dominance, Tripadvisor.com, have a partnership as well."

Zero Hedge: Utah pushes to accept gold, silver as alternative currency (Mar 3 2011)

Turd Ferguson: Silver consolidating above 34 (Mar 3 2011)

Carnage

Dow Jones (-2.38%), Nasdaq (-3.25%) and S&P 500 (-2.71%) flailing away in the dark with less than 2 hours left in the session. Worries about consumer confidence and Euro zone issues have taken precedence again. Issues about domestic financial regulation reform haven't helped, either.

Overall, though, it's nothing new. Just no good news, and the market needed capitulation to the down side. A lot of fund managers and traders are off on vacation this week and closing their books for now as Q2 nears a close, just my guess. So the robots take over in their algorithmic, predatory kind of way.

The past few weeks have been about light volume, no conviction and warning signs. Today, we have carnage.

I was up at 8:14 am Hawaii time and found the market in the red, both feet in. AAPL is finally below 260, my price target for a possible re-entry. Shares are at 257.64 (-3.97%). F is back below 10 (9.91 -4.99%). Jobs and housing declines are a bitch. C, which was saved by circuit breakers at 1pm Eastern, lost momentum and is at 3.79 (-5.25%) and GS (134.26 -1.76%) is sinking.

Even IMAX, that piddly, fickle issue, is at 14.65, lowest I've seen in months, despite huge ticket sales for Toy Story 3. BIDU is down 7.31% to 69.00. NFLX, not so bad, down "only" 2.88% to 114.22.

Meanwhile, VXX (30.13 +6.92%) and FAZ (16.62 +9.16%) are shredding the bulls. I'm still out of this madness and watching from the bleachers, but it's unfathomable to be long this market without hedging with some VXX and other assorted life vests. The ice was very, very thin.

FXI (39.49 -3.59%), FCX (61.39 -3.27%) and US Steel (X, 39.60 -4.69%) declining today as the US Dollar is up (UUP 25.05 +0.36%).

Euro is down slightly, but GLD (121.39 +0.25%) remains healthy. 

Frazzled Friday

Dow Jones 10,143.81 -8.99 -0.09%
NASDAQ 2,223.48 +3.07 +0.29%
S&P 500 1,076.76 +3.07 +0.29%

Reform is good, but it is no cure and it clearly isn't the catalyst in itself. Today's session was in the green most of the way, but sold off toward the close and essentially closed flat. Sectors that benefited from today's final financial reform bill work on Capitol Hill were (of course) financials and, you guessed it, Chinese energy.

FINANCIALS
Goldman Sachs gained 4.68% to 139.66, capping a nice move from 133 earlier in the week. The intraday high was 140.90. Citigroup closed at 3.94 (+4.23%) after a spooky descent the past few days.

Big winners were buyers of FAS (22.80 +7.17%).

EURO ZONE
FXE traded up (123.44 +0.47%) while the US Dollar (UUP) lost 0.56% (24.83).

Euro banks benefited from the finreg bill. Banco Santander, like their successful national team, finished up (11.05 +1.66%). IRE (3.70 +1.93%) also rose, though NBG fell (2.25 -1.32%).

CHINA ENERGY
With BP selling off chunks of fine, moneymaking operations, entities like CNOOC (CEO) are swooping in. CEO gained 1.93% to 175.24 while PetroChina (PTR) moved up 0.50% to 115.10.

Chinese solar plays are hot again, probably new festering ground for traders who banked big gains in US natural gas stocks the past few weeks. Trina Solar (TSL) had a big bump of 4.09% to 18.33 after landing a deal with the University of Queensland (Australia).

Yingli Green Energy (YGE) gained 3.89% to 10.68, riding the sector's momentum.

US ENERGY
The rise of crude oil to $78/barrel is helping solar plays back in the US. First Solar (FSLR) picked up 2.04% to 119.26. Solar is still "expensive" in the sense that it can't survive without federal subsidies for the most part. Solar will climb as crude prices rise. As usual.

Nat Gas had its best day in about a week, reviving in a big way. My list of 40 natty gassers gained a cumulative 2.12%. NGS was the biggest gainer (+7.65% to 16.74) and HERO (2.80 +5.66%) was second.

Two of my favorites, WPRT (16.70 +1.83%) and CLNE (15.97 +3.9%) did fine. So did another play I like, HGT (20.59 +3.05%).

The natty gasser with the biggest gain since Obama's speech is PETD (26.99 +29.57%).

As for oil, BP resumed its tumultuous descent, losing 5.98% to 26.92. Again, the sector traded well, having pruned BP from its collective sentiment. US Oil Fund (ETF) gained 3.69% to 35.66.

SAFE PLAYS
GLD gained 1.2% to 122.90 and TLT was slightly up (99.05 +0.41%).

CHINA & HEAVY METAL
FXI gained 1.01% to 41.18. Copper did well; FCX rocketed 4.93% to 66.57. US Steel rose 2.83% to 43.24. Metals have been so productive lately that the relative volatility shouldn't have scared me away.

TECH KINGS
Hibernation time for AAPL longs. Shares sold off again, as expected, losing 0.86% to 266.70. I'm waiting for a chance to snare shares at 260 or maybe 250.

GOOG lost 0.51% to 472.68. Another buying opportunity may be nearing, though I'm not in a rush. Even with AdMob and Android, GOOG is not as appealing to me as AAPL.

BIDU gained 3.12% to 76.10, arguably the best mover in the sector. They have no real competition in China. Big Brother is on its side. Baidu will not be beaten.

All in all, still 100% cash and no plans to change as the weekend begins. Just a few more days before Q2 ends, so window dressing may be in store as fund managers trample over each other to establish positions. Or not. If the market has another crash soon, I'll be ready.

Finreg bear burn

The squeeze is on. Somewhere in the murky language of the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill are a few words that have made banks happy. In other words, the regulation has probably lost a sizable amount of clout. That's bad news for finnie shorts and great news for suffering longs.

FAS is tearing bears up with a 7% gain to 22.79, while FAZ is down 7% to 14.84 after gaining most of this week. GS (139.65 +3.4%) and C (3.93 +4.1%) are enjoying the boost from Capitol Hill.

Capitol Hill compromise?

Fast Money reporting that the Volcker rule has been "strengthened" ... but it sounds more like a compromise that will allow finnies like Goldman Sachs to retain some ties to hedging. GS moving up a skosh on this news.

Turnover Thursday

Dow Jones 10,152.80 -145.64 -1.41%
NASDAQ 2,217.42 -36.81 -1.63%
S&P 500 1,073.69 -18.35 -1.68%

Regulations, schmegulations. There's no doubt that without turmoil from Capitol Hill, the Eurozone, the Gulf and iPhone 4 buyers planetwide, the market would be just fine and dandy. (RIMM is collapsing after hours due to a so-so earnings report.)

The pullback was expected from a technical perspective. Is a further drop coming? With Q2 coming to a lose in less than a week, I'm not so sure fund managers will stay completely out. If they get scared and refuse to dip their toes back into the oil-infested waters, that'll be a surprise to some extent.

I'll still wait for selling pressure in AAPL to wane before I walk into that territory. To the brave who grabbed VXX shares below 25 and 26 recently, bravo. When AAPL draws down, VXX pops 99% of the time.

Overall, though, the market was simply red.

TECH KINGS
AAPL wavered between 269 and 272 on the day of its iPhone 4 release. Shares closed at 269.69, down 0.73%, or 10 bucks less than its all-time high last week. Signal issues with the new phone could sit on AAPL for a few days, which makes it a buying opportunity, maybe. I'd rather just wait.

GOOG petered out and lost 1.44% to 475.10. Entry point is looking better all the time now. I might just wait for the first report of mobile ad sales before I test Google waters.

BIDU lost 3.14% to 73.80 after beating down bears for several days.

FINANCIALS
GS (134.98 -0.07%) and C (3.78 -2.83%) facing issues thanks to legislators. I haven't liked finnies for months precisely because of this kind of uphill battle. Fuck it. Too much work, too much pain involved. Unless GS hits 100 and C swoons to 3.00. Then I won't resist.

EURO ZONE
FXE up 0.14% (122.86), which normally is good for the US market. UUP (US dollar) was flat at 28.35.

Euro banks fell in spectacular fashion. Banco Santander (STD) dropped 3.81% to 10.87, IRE got squashed (3.63 -8.1%) and NBG (2.28 -3.8%) took a blow to the scrotum. I like STD below 9. Could happen. STD was below 9 less than two weeks ago.

SAFE PLAYS
Predictably, GLD (121.30 +0.29%) was up in a down market. So was SLV (18.26 +0.44). TLT, surprisingly, fell 0.59% to 98.65. But TLT had been hot lately, so it's not a shock.

ENERGY
US Oil (USO) gained 0.44% to 34.39 despite BP's plummet. BP gave back 3.14% to a new low of 28.74.

Nat Gas continued to fart incessantly. Only two of the 40 on my list closed positive today, though FTK had a nice 5.26% gain. As crude oil prices gain with greater demand, natural gas needs a definitive catalyst from the White House, something more than oral salutations from President Obama. Otherwise, nat gas is looking dead.

WPRT, once the beacon of the post-Obama clean-energy speech explosion, lost big again. Shares tumbled 3.81% to 16.40, and now WPRT is up only 11.64% since Obama's speech. WPRT had been up more than 30% at one point.

There are arguments to every sector of alternative energy. Wind has opponents because turbines kill thousands of birds. Solar has issues because of cost and the way certain endangered bugs (I'm not kidding) are instinctively attracted to panels and essentially fly until dead. The reasons are innumerable, surely "discovered" by pro-oil interests as well as well-meaning environmentalists.

Come on, people. We've got to do more than bitch and moan. Solutions?

HEDGES
VXX rocketed 6.14% to 28.35 and FAZ leaped 6.11% to 15.97. They're both explosive and both good ways to protect against losses if you're long the market, whether it's AAPL or financials.

Or you could just sit out and watch the circus from the bleachers like I have. Still 100% cash.

What's hot, what's not

A candlestick update from American Bulls.

AAPL (270.97): "Sell Confirmed"
BIDU (76.19): "Buy If"
C (3.89): "Sell Confirmed"
CLNE (16.17): "Wait"
FAZ (15.05): "Hold"
FCX (65.06): "Hold"
FXE (122.69): "Buy If"
FXI (41.26): "Hold"
GLD (120.95): "Hold"
GLDD (6.14): "Wait"
GOOG (482.05): "Hold"
GS (135.07): "Wait"
LVS (27.04): "Hold"
PKX (105.14): "Sell If"
SBUX (27.32): "Buy If"
SCO (15.06): "Hold"
SD (6.25): "Wait"
SLV (18.18): "Buy If"
STD (11.30): "Buy If"
TLT (99.24): "Hold"
UUP (24.97): "Sell If"
VXX (26.71): "Sell If"
WPRT (17.05): "Wait"
X (44.06): "Buy If"

Tepid Tuesday

Dow Jones 10,293.52 -148.89 -1.43%
NASDAQ 2,261.80 -27.29 -1.19%
S&P 500 1,095.31 -17.89 -1.61%

I'll say it again: this is a market that can have traders sprinting on those mouse wheels like a treadmill all morning and afternoon. It can also be an opportunity to shut the computer down, take a ride and enjoy some sunshine and pristine waters at the local beach. In my case, there are many choices. An hour just chilling in the water under a hot Hawaiian sun and some cool trade winds was the perfect tonic for my day.

I missed AAPL's rebound today as the news of 3 million iPads sold carried over. But I didn't miss another early gain and later decline. Volume is so light at this time of year and my time off is so limited, there are simple choices for those of us in the middle of the Pacific during the hours of 2 am to 2 pm.

1. Sleep, hit the beach, relax.
2. Sleep, wake up every few hours, check the market, back to sleep.
3. Watch every tick for 12 hours straight.

I prefer 1 and 2 for the rest of this month. I'll be on the lookout for AAPL shares below 260, maybe 250. The last two lows were 231 and 242. Expecting another low below 250 would be expecting a bit too much, I believe. But AAPL has proven that it will consolidate for months before exploding again, and we're in the midst of that now, possibly.

Fund managers don't want to be out of AAPL as Q2 closes at the end of this month. But they'll be more than happy to shake out weak hands and grab all they can below 260 or 250. So I wait.

TECH KINGS
AAPL gained 1.36% to 273.85. It's a dangerous scenario, potentially. There are traders who want their small gains on a daily basis. There are longs who wisely have held since 78 last year (March 2009). If the global economy tanks, everyone gets washed out to sea without mercy. Caution advised.

GOOG fell just a bit (-0.47%) to 486.96. Is this the opportunity to jump in before the Google train leaves the station? Or is a ledge below the cliff, and there's nowhere to go but down? I don't know. I'm asking you.

CHINA & HEAVY METAL
BIDU couldn't buck the trend for a second day in a row and lost 0.89% to 75.68. The FXI lost 1.56% to 40.95, giving back a small portion of recent gains. FCX lost 4.25% to 65.19 and US Steel (X) dropped 3.07% to 43.59.

It's a short-term trader's paradise.

EURO
The FXE lost just 0.33% (122.38) while the US dollar (UUP) was up 0.16% to 25.07.

FINANCIALS
Stateside, Goldman Sachs lost 2.14% to 134.79 and C dropped 1.99% to 3.94. Abroad, Santander (STD) lost 1.83% to 11.25, IRE got smacked (3.88 -7.18%) and NBG slipped 2.03% to 2.41.

FAZ fed off the selloff and gained 4.92% to 14.92.

ENERGY
If all of this felt vaguely bearish or even bullish in your optimistic view, try this: All 40 of the stocks on my Nat Gas list finished in the red today, a first since Obama's clean energy speech 19 days ago. Red, red, red. There's just sorta exception in VNR, which broke even for the day.

If the Nat Gas sector, which has an edge over most, can't get positive, it might be a setback for the broader market. Sure, Gulf drillers may have gotten a reprieve today, but for how long? Does the State of Louisiana really think it can win against the President? Do we really need for all drillers to go back to work in the Gulf? There has to be a reasonable compromise that can keep workers employed without risking one or two more preposterous catastrophes.

USO (United States Oil Fund ETF) finished down 0.93% even with the Louisiana challenge. Meanwhile, the ultra-short oil ETF, SCO, gained 1.7% to 14.35, oddly enough.

SAFETY
VXX gained again, this time 1.01% to 26.49 and making those who entered below 25 geniuses.

FAZ was far from the only inverse ETN to gain nicely today. DRV (Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3x) gained 9.74% to 6.87.

TZA (Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3x) ran up 6.29% to 6.97.

GLD reversed recent downward momentum and gained 0.88% to close at 121.45. TLT gained 1.19% to 98.57.

All in all, some interesting viewing from the bleachers. It might not be the worst time to pair AAPL and VXX, since there's no guarantee whatsoever of direction for either. But I'm not interested in that kind of excitement for now.

Manic Monday

Dow Jones 10,442.41 -8.23 -0.08% chart
NASDAQ 2,289.09 -20.71 -0.90% chart
S&P 500 1,113.20 -4.31 -0.39% chart

Another good night's sleep. Away from the home office, just enjoying family time over the weekend and through the early part of this week. Seems that the market had quite the day, rolling higher on China/yuan news, then completely selling the bulls out. As David Byrne once bellowed, "This is not my beautiful house! This is not my beautiful wife!"

Whether the Chinese are being facetious or factual is beside the point. The market was quite overbought and all the ripe fruit had to be plucked at some point. I slept right through most of it and slept well. Seeing CNBC (on mute) post charts at about 6 am Hawaii time showing the market 's steep decline from the early gains was no surprise. I went right back to sleep in a quiet neighborhood (not mine, which is noisy most of the day and night) and relished the trade winds coming down the slope.

There are just too many uncertainties and too many certain negatives around the globe for me to trust any whiff of irrational exuberance. That's right, in the right circumstance, I'd go long a frothy, bullish and silly trend. But this ain't it.

I'd rather be picky and catch a chunk of the up side (or down side) than try and guess a bottom or top. There's no reason to allow the market to have an edge on me. It gives us a direction, then maybe I re-enter. Aside from that, there's a lot of fun under the sun to be had. Summer is here.

TECH KINGS
Did AAPL just hit the wall? Shares were up nicely in premarket, hitting 278-plus, and later hit 279.01 before traders banked their nice profits. AAPL was at 242 less than two weeks ago. Closed today at 270.17, not too bad considering it fell to an intraday low of 268.73.

There's still more than a week left before Q2 ends, so more selling by fund managers will allow for another cheap entry at some point. I missed this run, but I didn't really "miss" it. I'm not feeling hurt. I'll just wait.

GOOG lost 2.29% and closed at 488.56. I like sub-490 as a possible entry point. I still like what they have in growth with Android and AdMob. You and I may not like Google as much as Apple, but they still draw billions of eyeballs and are about to corner the burgeoning mobile ad industry. With Apple, of course.

BIDU lost some gains, but still finished up 3.06% to 76.83 on the bullish China news. I've always believed that Baidu is simply Big Brother's baby. Even Mao would be cheering for these home boys to win — extreme filters provided, naturally.

CHINA & HEAVY METAL
It's time for a new band called China to invigorate the stagnant music industry. They could name all their songs after metals and chirp about the beauty of destroying perfectly fine agricultural regions by building dams.

FXI up 2.31% to 41.60. This ETF has held up well despite global poo-poo and will probably find its way to 50 before summer's done. The Chinese hold all the cards and they know it. The real estate bubble is a serious thorn in China's side, but they're managing it better, it seems, than the US handled its subprime mortgage issue.

FCX gained 3.31% to 68.08 as copper regained momentum on China's news. US Steel (X), which had floundered mightily lately, picked up 3.59% to 44.97.

South Korean steel manufacturer Posco (PKX) was a huge gainer, running up 6.69% to 103.76.

FINANCIALS & EURO
GS was flat (-0.32%) at 137.74 after losing early gains. C flat, too, gaining 0.25% to 4.02.

FXE (Euro) dropped a bit (-0.47%) to 122.78 while the US dollar (UUP) gained 0.36% to 25.03. Euro banks closed weakly: STD (11.46 -0.61%), IRE (4.18 -2.79%), through NBG gained 2.07% to 2.46 after a huge gap up.

Not touching these finnies for a long, long time.

ENTERTAINMENT
IMAX gained 1.94% to 16.46 after a huge opening weekend for Toy Story 3. Shares were up to 16.79 before losing ground.
CSTR plummeted 3.25% to 47.36.

ENERGY
BP sold off 4.5% to 30.33 as CEO Hayward did his jolly best to fuck his company again. It's not just that millionaires and billionaires should step away from the spotlight after causing an environmental disaster. It's just that they might think about heeding PR's advice about not cavorting around on a yacht. That fact that he didn't give a fucking damn about his own company's advice, plus the fact that it seems he doesn't care about the oil 'volcano', tells us that maybe there really is nothing BP can do to halt this catastrophe in the Gulf ... what else are shareholders supposed to think? Of course, they're going to bail and bail and bail.

Despite Hayward's idiocy, USO lost only 0.23% today. Inverse oil ETN SCO gained just 0.50%. Oil prices keep going up, which is good news for the industry and even BP.

Meanwhile, only six of the 40 on my Nat Gas list were positive today, and most of the positives were up fractionally. Only BRNC had a substantial gain (+2.36% to 4.34), resuming its hot run. As a group, my Nat Gas 40 lost 1.36% today, but is still up 10.66% since Obama's clean energy speech 2 1/2 weeks ago.

Top gainers on the list:
1. PQ 8.34 (+34.08%)
2. PETD 26.77 (+28.52%)
3. BRNC 4.34 (+24.71%)
4. WPRT 18.22 (+24.03%)
5. MMR 65.29 (+22.35%)

Conspiracy or not, as long as oil goes up, the need for alternatives rides along with that. The clamor for nat gas (subsidy bill pending) and solar will climb. Maybe owning nat gas and/or solar and/or USO are simply ways to hedge against your growing gasoline bill.

I just like WPRT for its great balance sheet and unique position in the industry.

SAFE PLAYS
GLD lost 1.99% to 120.39 today and SLV dropped 2.24% to 18.32. TLT was flat (97.41 -0.29%).

PROTECTION
And, finally, FAZ was up a bit (14.22 +0.57) while VXX soared (25.48 +1.64%). VXX was low as 24.03. The last time it was this low, it made a run to the mid-30s. Is the world a calmer place now than it was last month or six months ago? Again, I won't touch the VXXen unless I'm using it to hedge a long position. The times I've attempted to trade VXX as a stand-alone, she was way too smart and whirling dervish for me. I admit that.

Flatulent Friday: Are we toppy now?

Dow Jones 10,450.64 +16.47 +0.16%
NASDAQ 2,309.80 +2.64 +0.11%
S&P 500 1,117.51 +1.47 +0.13%

Between quad witching and the overwhelming emotional baggage of 1) BP's Gulf oil disaster, 2) Euro percolation, 3) renewed fears of US housing/jobs/financials fuck ups, 4) China inflation, 5) North Korean shitstinkery and more, the market simply seemed exhausted by today. What little buying there was surely was limited to a minority of issues like AAPL, which closed at an all-time high of 274.07 on 30 million shares traded — roughly 25% more volume than usual.

While there wasn't a whole lot of buying pressure, there was even less selling pressure. There are all kinds of reasons for this, but the main one is simple: With $27 billion outflowing from the market so far this year, it's all been reduced to trading desks, high-frequency trading machines and day traders. No blame to go around from this little tower. We wanted to eat the forbidden fruit of market capitalism, and the food chain developed instantly. Whether it's algorithms or the invention of the wheel, whoever capitalizes on new technology will usually win while the remaining masses howl with fever over disadvantage and conspiracy.

I could easily complain, but I'd rather just get a good night's sleep, wake up at a nice hour like 6 or 8 am Hawaii time, and observe. So I missed a chance to re-enter my beloved AAPL. So what. I'll get another chance sooner rather than later. AAPL run-ups are often met with ridiculously steep sell-offs, or simply continue running, especially after a few weeks of consolidation. It won't bother me to ride AAPL from 280 to 300 at all. If I can get in at 250 next week, better yet.

But this is the world we live in, when a single currency has markets fretting, and Earth's greatest tech retailer ever can be practically felled in one swoop (from 200 to 78 not so long ago) because of a housing/financial crisis.

For the record, the eight stocks I'm watching closely were mostly in the red today.

Up:
• AAPL 274.07 (+0.81%)
• SD 6.86 (+1.78%)

Down:
• CLNE 17.15 (-0.81%)
• CSTR 48.95 (-4.56%)
• GLDD 5.34 (-0.78%)
• TGP 30.03 (-0.07%)
• UNG 8.53 (-2.29%)
• WPRT 18.62 (-2%)

I'm still 100% cash, waiting for the market to settle down (which it has) and provide a clue about direction (which it hasn't).

TECH KINGS

AAPL was at 242 last week Wednesday. This feels like the consolidation months back when shares drifted between 195 and 215 before popping on what became a two-month odyssey that topped out at 272 on that climatic earnings day. Love Apple or not, the iPad and iPhone G4 are ruling the geek universe and the normal world simultaneously.

Next week is a liftoff to 300 or it pulls back to 255, maybe 250. How many stocks keep revving higher in a flat market, seven sessions in a row? I can think of one.

FINANCIALS
GS (137.82 +0.63%) and C (4.01 +1.26%) didn't move as much as their Euro counterparts. I still don't like finnies long term. Too many damned questions.

EURO

FXE was basically flat (123.36 -0.11%) while STD (11.53 +2.31%) lost roughly half of its early gain. Those boys at Banco Santander have balls of steel, calling out the Eurozone (Germany, in particular) by demanding stress tests, then grading out No. 1 in leaked reports. Then STD turns out to be a bullish buyer on both sides of the Atlantic. If Santander were a sports team, I'd be a fan. They take care of their shit.

IRE moved up big, 3.86% to 4.30. NBG lost 1.63% to 2.41, but I have no desire to touch any Greek stocks. Ever.

HEAVY METALS
FCX was flat (65.90 +0.14%) and FXI was equally quiet (40.66 +0.10%). US Steel (X) lost 1.56% to 43.41, ending a very turbulent week with ups and downs. SLV moved up again (18.75 +2.29%).

SAFE PLAYS

GLD up again (122.83 +0.76%) and gets a lot of headlines for all-time highs in the metal, but really ... so what? Sure, it gains quite a bit from a 2- or 3-year perspective, or a 5- or 10-year perspective. It's a hedge against inflation, against dwindling currencies ... and unless you hoard bars of the pretty yellow metal, your paper ownership can be "confiscated" by Uncle Sam in times of dire need.

I like gold/GLD as a small piece of the portfolio, nothing more.

TLT also flat today (97.69 -0.16%).

ENERGY
USO up 0.77% to 35.41. BP had another "boring" day with a 0.16% gain to 31.76. All BP shareholders are hoping for plenty of these quiet days.

My Nat Gas 40, a collection of the first 40 sector plays I found on the day of Obama's clean energy speech (15 days ago), was up 0.02% today. As a whole, the 40 are up 12.19%, staying flat the past few days.

Bronco Drilling (BRNC) had a massive gain of 9.84% to 4.24 today and is now up 21.8% since Obama's talk. PQ (+4%), PETD (+3.15%), NGS (+2.57%), GDP (+2.48%) also had nice moves today. In all, 18 of the 40 were in the green today.

My favorite natty gassers, WPRT (18.62 -2%) and CLNE (17.15 -0.81%) were down. UNG sold off 2.29% to 8.53. It remains a buy below 8.00 and a sell above 8.75. It's one of those notorious plays that traders love and investors hated and still hate due to its incredible lack of strength. At this level, though, it's playing fair. It just trades so freaky compared to the sector so often. It'll gain massively while the entire sector is in the red that day. Then it'll tank as high fliers with tiny floats move up, up, up.

Overall, however, this is probably as stable as the industry has been in the market for some time. All because of BP, and all because of Obama, who reiterated his stance on clean energy earlier in the week. That staved off what would've been inevitable mass selling after several natty gassers hit 20%-plus gains in less than two weeks.

Eventually, though, the sector needs another catalyst. Obama can stoke the fire only so many times. The industry needs some real roots into America's energy grid. Question is when.

Happy Father's Day weekend, everybody. Aloha!

Options madness is over ... is this market finally topping out?