The impeccable Koolau Mountains to the left. Diamond Head to the right. Well, if I could see through concrete walls, that's where I am.
Busy lately, as busy as ever, but not so much with lots of stuff as much as studying certain things like prep sports and the market. But what's equally interesting -- and sometimes painful -- is realizing that the biggest asset and detriment is myself. That's what the market always teaches: balance requires discipline, and that's always been one of my, uhhh, well it's never been a huge strength. Except for those springs and summers and falls when I diligently went to the park to work on my handles and pull-up jumpers.
Miles Ogawa was quite a teacher for me. He didn't coach me once I was done playing JV basketball, but his teaching/coaching stayed with me and I shared the zeal he had about defensive positioning and technique. His 60-shot drill stayed with me on those quiet afternoons at Ala Wai Park.
Anyway, Coach Miles was one of the very best. Thanks Coach!
I don't consider myself an athlete by any means, nor do I consider myself an athlete in the market, where most of us small fries are just trying to pick and choose our way to profitability. Learning to cut losses early and not just often, but ALWAYS, is a never ending challenge. It goes against some of my natural tendencies, like sticking it out when things get tough (perseverance). Bagholding a stock is not perseverance, though. It's stupidity and it can be costly.
I'm currently bagholding LVS and DNDN. I believe strongly that both will continue to rise and that there's no need to sell until then. I took a big hit in the past month on DNDN (should've sold quickly after it leaped to 28) and decided to sell at break-even after having a huge paper profit, then got back in, didn't sell while it was up and now it's down a few bucks; I also took a hit on BAC after earnings when it gapped down in the morning from near 11 to about 8-9. Instead of holding, I decided to get out. That was driven by fear, and apparently I was wrong to unload. BAC is now at 14.
Point is, this market rewards the good pickers and those who tune out just about everything in the media. It also rewards those who are disciplined and don't overpay at peak levels unless there is a catalyst. Example would be RIMM, which blasted through earnings estimates; recent numbers show the BlackBerry outsold the iPhone in Q1. RIMM won't come back down to 70 unless there's turmoil on Planet Earth, so it's up near 80 for some time to come. It's worth investing in on pullbacks.
Whatever the stock, though, a game plan is absolutely necessary. Sell on a slight dip and preserve your capital for lower buy-ins/better prices, or just wait it out like I should have with BAC. I did wait it out on BAC once. That took two weeks to recover, but it felt like two years.
I will continue to approach with a long-term outlook/hold on certain stocks (AAPL) and position trade on others. The bottom line, though, is whether I apply the game plan and get out of position trade losses ASAP. This past week was a personal record for break-even short-term trades, small-loss trades. That allowed me to be profitable for the week. Continuing to learn and focus on discipline: speed and commitment as a result of planning. A mix of break-evens, small losses and a few big gainers each week will equal profitability. I'm content to break even and that's a major step forward in my thinking.
See Trader Mike for some very solid reading.
Showing posts with label swing trade. Show all posts
Showing posts with label swing trade. Show all posts
Saturday, May 9, 2009
Friday, April 24, 2009
Aloha Friday
If you missed it, here are a couple of pertinent pieces written today. One, by the blatantly honest Jeff Macke, takes a look at Las Vegas Sands, which closed the week at 7.44. That gives me a quite voluptuous paper profit so far. Just wish I'd had more cash on Wednesday when I got a few shares.
The other piece is by Ken McCullough, whom I had never heard of, but his perspective is interesting. It's about groupthink and Cramer and Kass and whether the retail investor needs a shepherd to read the market's fickle ways.
As for my trading, I was quite aesthetic yesterday, quite as a monk in a cave. Watching but quiet. Today was the opposite. With Fed stress-test news out, the financials were all over, up and down and I made back all that I'd lost (on paper) with my STUPID, overly expensive buys of BAC and FAS early in the week. Then my stop-loss orders kicked in and left me at break-even instead of a tidy profit, leaving me to doubt the process. Why?
Both stocks had rallied huge and were a good 25 to 30 cents above my entry points -- and stop-loss prices -- when the market makers decided to alter the market. They dove all the way down and cleared out my sell orders, and probably thousands of others, before taking the price back up from whence they came.
Dirty m*******f*****kers.
Now I know better. When my stocks have exploded and I'm tracking them closely -- I actually moved up my limit sell orders twice during today's rally before switching to trailing stops -- it's an absolute must to make the stops real tight, as close as possible to the current price. Don't get me wrong: I'm glad and thankful as heck that I'm not thousands of dollars underwater anymore. But tight stops would've netted me a decent profit after all that struggle.
Anyway, I netted positive for the day after that horrendous Monday. Tweaking along the way, that's what has to be done.
The other piece is by Ken McCullough, whom I had never heard of, but his perspective is interesting. It's about groupthink and Cramer and Kass and whether the retail investor needs a shepherd to read the market's fickle ways.
As for my trading, I was quite aesthetic yesterday, quite as a monk in a cave. Watching but quiet. Today was the opposite. With Fed stress-test news out, the financials were all over, up and down and I made back all that I'd lost (on paper) with my STUPID, overly expensive buys of BAC and FAS early in the week. Then my stop-loss orders kicked in and left me at break-even instead of a tidy profit, leaving me to doubt the process. Why?
Both stocks had rallied huge and were a good 25 to 30 cents above my entry points -- and stop-loss prices -- when the market makers decided to alter the market. They dove all the way down and cleared out my sell orders, and probably thousands of others, before taking the price back up from whence they came.
Dirty m*******f*****kers.
Now I know better. When my stocks have exploded and I'm tracking them closely -- I actually moved up my limit sell orders twice during today's rally before switching to trailing stops -- it's an absolute must to make the stops real tight, as close as possible to the current price. Don't get me wrong: I'm glad and thankful as heck that I'm not thousands of dollars underwater anymore. But tight stops would've netted me a decent profit after all that struggle.
Anyway, I netted positive for the day after that horrendous Monday. Tweaking along the way, that's what has to be done.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Tying down loose ends
It's a must. Two of the past three days have been the biggest trading losses for me in the past month. Otherwise, most trades have been wins. One huge reason was the 6-week bull run from the market's bottoms. Another reason was selectivity, something I had more of before this week.
The biggest reason, though, is that I didn't use stop-loss sell orders on trades for BAC and FAS. That takes consistency and discipline. I used them earlier in the day (losses on FAZ), but simply acted the dunderhead later. Chances are that the two stocks will swing back up and I'll break even. Nothing is guaranteed, though. That's why trailing stops are key.
Also added a few LVS shares at 5.77 in after hours yesterday. I missed a chance to get them on Tuesday at 5.07 in AH after learning about some positive news. Trading above 6 in premarket today. Adami says it should be above 8.50. We'll see.
Stress test results for financials tomorrow. Stress for shareholders, too. In a perfect world, I'll be out of financials by then.
The biggest reason, though, is that I didn't use stop-loss sell orders on trades for BAC and FAS. That takes consistency and discipline. I used them earlier in the day (losses on FAZ), but simply acted the dunderhead later. Chances are that the two stocks will swing back up and I'll break even. Nothing is guaranteed, though. That's why trailing stops are key.
Also added a few LVS shares at 5.77 in after hours yesterday. I missed a chance to get them on Tuesday at 5.07 in AH after learning about some positive news. Trading above 6 in premarket today. Adami says it should be above 8.50. We'll see.
Stress test results for financials tomorrow. Stress for shareholders, too. In a perfect world, I'll be out of financials by then.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Flat
Stopped out of C at 3.19. Oh well. Can't force it.
Also got into FAZ at 10.45 and was stopped out at 10.38. This market doesn't know which direction it wants to go. I think traders are just worn out by everthing.
Also got into FAZ at 10.45 and was stopped out at 10.38. This market doesn't know which direction it wants to go. I think traders are just worn out by everthing.
C breeze
Thought I'd stay out until near the close, but I'm back in at 3.23.
C leveled off in the 3.20 range, where I sold it (smart move to avoid downside risk), then showed a decent head-and-shoulders on the chart, decent move on MACD. I do want this in my portfolio as long as the financial environment is leaning positive. But I also have a trailing stop-loss sell (2 percent) at 3.18 just in case.
If C can move to 3.28 or 3.33, I might take the nickel or dime profit.
He who fight and run away
Live to fight another day
- Bob Nesta Marley
C leveled off in the 3.20 range, where I sold it (smart move to avoid downside risk), then showed a decent head-and-shoulders on the chart, decent move on MACD. I do want this in my portfolio as long as the financial environment is leaning positive. But I also have a trailing stop-loss sell (2 percent) at 3.18 just in case.
If C can move to 3.28 or 3.33, I might take the nickel or dime profit.
He who fight and run away
Live to fight another day
- Bob Nesta Marley
Stop in the name of love
Stop-loss sell order kicked in on my FAS at 7.34 and C at 3.20.
Profit of 15 cents/share. Nice little profit for a two-hour daytrade. Probably should've sold near the high of 7.54.
C was a quick profit of 23 cents and 5 cents. High was 3.28. Never had two stop-loss sells happen in a 5-minute period before. Pretty cool. A lot more orderly, too.
Profit of 15 cents/share. Nice little profit for a two-hour daytrade. Probably should've sold near the high of 7.54.
C was a quick profit of 23 cents and 5 cents. High was 3.28. Never had two stop-loss sells happen in a 5-minute period before. Pretty cool. A lot more orderly, too.
In/out FAZ, In C
Tried to play FAZ during Geithner's talk with Congress, but got stopped out at 12.02 with a 3-percent loss.
Got in, however, Citigroup at 2.96 and 3.15. Market is in the green and financials are bouncing back. C is battling at 3.15.
Got in, however, Citigroup at 2.96 and 3.15. Market is in the green and financials are bouncing back. C is battling at 3.15.
Wash out
Four great trades. One bad one.
Four trades of FAZ in premarket netted nice gains, the best I've had in two hours work.
Then, that buy at 13.33 after I was surprised to find I'd accidentally sold at 13.24 ... that came back to haunt me. I didn't set a stop loss sell order like I should have, and it slid all the way to 12.25 at blazing speed. I had to sell at market, which I never do, and it sold at 12.14. Killed me. As an ETF, FAZ moves faster than any stock I've ever seen.
Practically wiped out my gains for the day.
A. Don't buy so high, regardless of momentum.
B. Put in the stop loss order no matter what. Had I done that around 12.90, my loss would've been pretty minimal. Too much thinking, not enough discipline.
x
Now I'm pooped and frustrated with myself. Market was negative before bell, which helped FAZ, then rallied (financials did some running up), but now the market is slightly negatoid again.
Next time I have a big profit, I'm going out for a walk. A long walk.
Epilogue: I mentioned that I should've set a stop-loss sell order, but there is no such thing available in premarket and after hours.
Four trades of FAZ in premarket netted nice gains, the best I've had in two hours work.
Then, that buy at 13.33 after I was surprised to find I'd accidentally sold at 13.24 ... that came back to haunt me. I didn't set a stop loss sell order like I should have, and it slid all the way to 12.25 at blazing speed. I had to sell at market, which I never do, and it sold at 12.14. Killed me. As an ETF, FAZ moves faster than any stock I've ever seen.
Practically wiped out my gains for the day.
A. Don't buy so high, regardless of momentum.
B. Put in the stop loss order no matter what. Had I done that around 12.90, my loss would've been pretty minimal. Too much thinking, not enough discipline.
x
Now I'm pooped and frustrated with myself. Market was negative before bell, which helped FAZ, then rallied (financials did some running up), but now the market is slightly negatoid again.
Next time I have a big profit, I'm going out for a walk. A long walk.
Epilogue: I mentioned that I should've set a stop-loss sell order, but there is no such thing available in premarket and after hours.
Doh! Getting rocked by RIMM
Accidentally sold FAZ at 13.24. Hit the wrong button and went to pee. I got a profit out of it, but I didn't want to sell immediately!
Back in at 13.33, watching with a microscope.
Back in at 13.33, watching with a microscope.
Monday, April 20, 2009
Holding on
FAZ never took a breather after hours and ran to 11.89. BAC closed at 8.02, but plunged in AH to 7.78. C plunged to 2.85 AH. I decided to hold my FAZ overnight. If the financials gap up tomorrow, I might go long C or BAC. They have major problems, but profits -- particularly with BAC -- are not an issue. C has a conversion (preferred to common shares) value of 3.25, which will probably stick, making 2.85 a good value price.
Or maybe just sell at the open and stay in cash. If, by some zany twist of fates (plural), FAZ will be one of the stocks that helps me recoup what I lost today. It's not out of the realm of possibility. FAZ was 115 five weeks ago.
Or maybe just sell at the open and stay in cash. If, by some zany twist of fates (plural), FAZ will be one of the stocks that helps me recoup what I lost today. It's not out of the realm of possibility. FAZ was 115 five weeks ago.
Green Pond
Yes, green.
Not for the day, of course, but in my new trade.
This is not how I pictured the day to progress. I am now short. Never before, might never again. But I'm short and making money. Incredible.
After unloading my portfolio -- wisely, too, since BAC (8.07) has slipped another 15 cents since my sell -- I finally realized that FAZ would've been my perfect hedge starting in premarket today, or even after the opening bell. I passed up a buy at 10.95 or so and it kept inching up as BAC continued to sink. I finally mustered up some nerve and got in at 11.25, where it meandered for awhile before running up. The final 20 minutes or so, it leaped to 11.71. I added more at 11.67.
The financials could get a boost somehow tomorrow morning, but I'm thinking shorts will pile on again plus there will be more panic/surrender selling. I have a stop loss order in at 3 percent, which still puts me at a very small loss at 11.28 and 11.35.
FAZ, like FAS (long financials) are hyper, steroid financial stocks, so it can reverse super fast. If I can sell FAZ close to 11.67 in after-hours trading, I'll do it.
I know enough about Citigroup and Bank of America now to realize that one or both could actually go under, or possibly break up, once they run out of cash. And if they don't run out of cash, they'll probably have no other choice but to convert that TARP money into shares, which will dilute the share price and drive it down -- making more profit for FAZ owners.
I have to say this, too: I have always hated taking out loans, hated credit cards, which is why I can't stand it when people overdo things and get into massive debt. It's a major reason why the economy tanked -- we Americans hated to save, unlike other nations (Japan, for one). The economy tanking did none of us any good, savers or not.
Anyway, with that perspective on credit lines and markets, it's no wonder I never shorted financials sooner. With BAC and C talking about bad loans and worsening credit situations, it's almost a no-brainer.
Not for the day, of course, but in my new trade.
This is not how I pictured the day to progress. I am now short. Never before, might never again. But I'm short and making money. Incredible.
After unloading my portfolio -- wisely, too, since BAC (8.07) has slipped another 15 cents since my sell -- I finally realized that FAZ would've been my perfect hedge starting in premarket today, or even after the opening bell. I passed up a buy at 10.95 or so and it kept inching up as BAC continued to sink. I finally mustered up some nerve and got in at 11.25, where it meandered for awhile before running up. The final 20 minutes or so, it leaped to 11.71. I added more at 11.67.
The financials could get a boost somehow tomorrow morning, but I'm thinking shorts will pile on again plus there will be more panic/surrender selling. I have a stop loss order in at 3 percent, which still puts me at a very small loss at 11.28 and 11.35.
FAZ, like FAS (long financials) are hyper, steroid financial stocks, so it can reverse super fast. If I can sell FAZ close to 11.67 in after-hours trading, I'll do it.
I know enough about Citigroup and Bank of America now to realize that one or both could actually go under, or possibly break up, once they run out of cash. And if they don't run out of cash, they'll probably have no other choice but to convert that TARP money into shares, which will dilute the share price and drive it down -- making more profit for FAZ owners.
I have to say this, too: I have always hated taking out loans, hated credit cards, which is why I can't stand it when people overdo things and get into massive debt. It's a major reason why the economy tanked -- we Americans hated to save, unlike other nations (Japan, for one). The economy tanking did none of us any good, savers or not.
Anyway, with that perspective on credit lines and markets, it's no wonder I never shorted financials sooner. With BAC and C talking about bad loans and worsening credit situations, it's almost a no-brainer.
Red Sea
Thick red.
One month's gains mostly wiped out in one day. It's one thing to know a day of reckoning is coming. After six straight weeks to the upside, the market was due for a selloff. But I wasn't prepared. I was heavily long in BAC going into today's earnings report. Never had a chance. It traded above 11 in early premarket, the one mere mortals like me can't trade in. Otherwise, I would've sold.
By the time BAC was sellable in premarket (2 a.m. HST), it was below 10 and sinking. That would've been the right time to get out with a small loss, but I was confident it would bounce back, especially when the new was out that it beat earnings by a wide margin, 44 cents to 5 cents. Didn't matter. So many negatives in the economy -- bad jobs numbers (unemployment) didn't help -- and the stock couldn't find its footing. I sold BAC for a major loss at 8.22. Also sold my little CROX position at 1.83 and the rest of my C at 2.92.
All in all, my 31 percent gain for the past month has been reduced to rubble. I'm now up 7.6 percent. OK, what's the analysis and lesson?
A. When there's a gap down in premarket, sell off some (or all) of the position. More so when the market is due for a correction, and all those quant programs unloaded -- not just financials, but almost everything -- in the way that's reminiscent of selloffs during the past several months. (I had planned to sell the position on a gap up or neutral, so it should be the same on a gap down unless I'm holding AAPL maybe.)
B. In lieu of a manual sell order, put in stop loss sell orders. Simple.
C. Hedge best as possible. With financials, that would've been a long position in FAZ, which is up 24 percent today. FAZ, the short-financials stock on steroids, was 8.90 yesterday but opened today at 9.94 and climbed up, up, up. It's at 11.10 now.
D. The next time the market is up six weeks in a row, I'll go 100 percent cash. Daytrades only, no swinging.
E. If a long is feasible, then stick with the best stocks -- not risky ones like financials. AAPL, again (with earnings due this week), would be a candidate before and during a correction (on a pullback). AAPL is at 119 now, down from 123 one session ago.
Though today's huge loss hurts, I know this bear market will turn for good eventually. I've proven to myself that making profits in a bull market, or at least a bear-market rally, will happen. I'm just thankful that I'm still ahead and I'll be ready with cash when the right time comes.
It wasn't all that great even before today. Though I was up 31 percent, I had left a lot of profit on the table. Had I played things perfectly (I know, never happens), I would've been up 77 percent until today. In five weeks.
One month's gains mostly wiped out in one day. It's one thing to know a day of reckoning is coming. After six straight weeks to the upside, the market was due for a selloff. But I wasn't prepared. I was heavily long in BAC going into today's earnings report. Never had a chance. It traded above 11 in early premarket, the one mere mortals like me can't trade in. Otherwise, I would've sold.
By the time BAC was sellable in premarket (2 a.m. HST), it was below 10 and sinking. That would've been the right time to get out with a small loss, but I was confident it would bounce back, especially when the new was out that it beat earnings by a wide margin, 44 cents to 5 cents. Didn't matter. So many negatives in the economy -- bad jobs numbers (unemployment) didn't help -- and the stock couldn't find its footing. I sold BAC for a major loss at 8.22. Also sold my little CROX position at 1.83 and the rest of my C at 2.92.
All in all, my 31 percent gain for the past month has been reduced to rubble. I'm now up 7.6 percent. OK, what's the analysis and lesson?
A. When there's a gap down in premarket, sell off some (or all) of the position. More so when the market is due for a correction, and all those quant programs unloaded -- not just financials, but almost everything -- in the way that's reminiscent of selloffs during the past several months. (I had planned to sell the position on a gap up or neutral, so it should be the same on a gap down unless I'm holding AAPL maybe.)
B. In lieu of a manual sell order, put in stop loss sell orders. Simple.
C. Hedge best as possible. With financials, that would've been a long position in FAZ, which is up 24 percent today. FAZ, the short-financials stock on steroids, was 8.90 yesterday but opened today at 9.94 and climbed up, up, up. It's at 11.10 now.
D. The next time the market is up six weeks in a row, I'll go 100 percent cash. Daytrades only, no swinging.
E. If a long is feasible, then stick with the best stocks -- not risky ones like financials. AAPL, again (with earnings due this week), would be a candidate before and during a correction (on a pullback). AAPL is at 119 now, down from 123 one session ago.
Though today's huge loss hurts, I know this bear market will turn for good eventually. I've proven to myself that making profits in a bull market, or at least a bear-market rally, will happen. I'm just thankful that I'm still ahead and I'll be ready with cash when the right time comes.
It wasn't all that great even before today. Though I was up 31 percent, I had left a lot of profit on the table. Had I played things perfectly (I know, never happens), I would've been up 77 percent until today. In five weeks.
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Purple and green fever
Amazing to see ETFC on the rise.
Of all the loan-heavy financials ravaged over the past several months, E-Trade had a clear shot at bankruptcy. Quite sad for what was once a rip-roaring company that relied on brokerage fees to make a big name for itself.
Well, in early March, with the toxic-asset problem on fire, ETFC hit an intra-day low of 0.59. That was just about the time I re-entered and started trading again. I recall taking a peek at the stock price once, had no interest whatsoever. Preferred to buy AAPL instead.
Well, ETFC is up to the 2.50 range now, riding the coattails of the financial sector. But more than that, their loan problems are being worked out. Supposedly, E-Trade will be able to get, at least in theory, 100 percent of the loans back through a third party. That's more than enough to perk up my interest, but I'm not convinced it's fact until I see it.
As for the stock itself, it has a life of its own. The run for sub-1 buck to 2.50 needs a pit stop, but I'll be watching for a pullback and possible entry point to start swing trading ETFC. At its one-year peak, ETFC traded in the mid-20s with volume less than 10 million shares per day. The past week, it had several sessions of volume in the 45-55 million share range. Could be a short squeeze, but it's still worth watching.
I'd be happy to trade it several times for 10-cent gains.
Of all the loan-heavy financials ravaged over the past several months, E-Trade had a clear shot at bankruptcy. Quite sad for what was once a rip-roaring company that relied on brokerage fees to make a big name for itself.
Well, in early March, with the toxic-asset problem on fire, ETFC hit an intra-day low of 0.59. That was just about the time I re-entered and started trading again. I recall taking a peek at the stock price once, had no interest whatsoever. Preferred to buy AAPL instead.
Well, ETFC is up to the 2.50 range now, riding the coattails of the financial sector. But more than that, their loan problems are being worked out. Supposedly, E-Trade will be able to get, at least in theory, 100 percent of the loans back through a third party. That's more than enough to perk up my interest, but I'm not convinced it's fact until I see it.
As for the stock itself, it has a life of its own. The run for sub-1 buck to 2.50 needs a pit stop, but I'll be watching for a pullback and possible entry point to start swing trading ETFC. At its one-year peak, ETFC traded in the mid-20s with volume less than 10 million shares per day. The past week, it had several sessions of volume in the 45-55 million share range. Could be a short squeeze, but it's still worth watching.
I'd be happy to trade it several times for 10-cent gains.
Saturday, April 18, 2009
Beanie's Golden Rules
Great, common-sense rules about trading from Beanieville.
Now, these rules aren't original, nor are they guaranteed to do anything. But applying them has helped me, and ignoring them has cost me money.
In addition to these Golden Rules, I'd add two absolutely important words: stop loss.
Looking forward to Monday, cutting losses early, making lots of ties, small wins and allowing those big runners to ring up my account with lots of green.
Now, these rules aren't original, nor are they guaranteed to do anything. But applying them has helped me, and ignoring them has cost me money.
In addition to these Golden Rules, I'd add two absolutely important words: stop loss.
Looking forward to Monday, cutting losses early, making lots of ties, small wins and allowing those big runners to ring up my account with lots of green.
Friday, April 17, 2009
BAC it up
Added a trunk full of BAC shares before the close (10.92). Could unload them in premarket on Monday, pre-earnings, similar to today's early trade with C. I don't expect it to sink during premarket and the opening hour after the bell like C, but it could happen. Easily.
Mastery is tough to attain
A last little vent about the C trades.
Wednesday to Thursday, a beautiful run from 3.80 to 4.10. It wouldn't stay at 4.10 long at all, dropped back to 4.02-4.05 range and I held out an extra hour, two hours to get my 4.10 sell point. Victory.
Later, I took a small win in C for 7 cents. Two wins in two days.
Today, it was the overnight gap from 4.05 to 4.38. Awesome. Not the 5.00 or 6.00 that some people fantasized about, but they were not being realistic.
Three nice wins in a row on C. Then I screwed up the streak by letting a small win turn into a big loss, entering at 3.92, passing the sell at 3.99 and losing at 3.70.
Stick to the game plan. Must stick to the game plan. Take the 5-cent win always, especially when the price has fallen almost a dollar from the premarket high. This was not one of them and that lack of reasoning and logic cost me a chunk.
Wednesday to Thursday, a beautiful run from 3.80 to 4.10. It wouldn't stay at 4.10 long at all, dropped back to 4.02-4.05 range and I held out an extra hour, two hours to get my 4.10 sell point. Victory.
Later, I took a small win in C for 7 cents. Two wins in two days.
Today, it was the overnight gap from 4.05 to 4.38. Awesome. Not the 5.00 or 6.00 that some people fantasized about, but they were not being realistic.
Three nice wins in a row on C. Then I screwed up the streak by letting a small win turn into a big loss, entering at 3.92, passing the sell at 3.99 and losing at 3.70.
Stick to the game plan. Must stick to the game plan. Take the 5-cent win always, especially when the price has fallen almost a dollar from the premarket high. This was not one of them and that lack of reasoning and logic cost me a chunk.
Out of C with loss
Three sins of trading: greed, pride and stupidity.
I got back in, as I wrote earlier, at 3.92. It ran to 3.99 almost immediately and I assumed it would run to 4.50. This is a major mistake, to imagine that I can project or predict anything in the market. It should always be about the price action, the reality of numbers, and not my feeble imagination or worse, hope.
It was a frog-in-a-pot-of-water syndrome from there, the water starting to boil without me noticing the danger. Citigroup shares trickled lower and lower, actually surging back up to 3.90 momentarily. I thought I had a sell at 3.92 (for a tie) execute, but a minute or so later I realized that it was not so. In 30 seconds, C dropped to 3.82 and has been meandering in the 3.70s. After it sank below 3.70, I put in a sell order at 3.70. Then I forgot about it.
The order executed for a loss of 22 cents, wiping out a large portion of the gains I made in premarket (+33 cents). Lesson here? Leave well enough alone, set tight stop losses and get out with small losses.
In the 3.90s and 3.80s, I was thinking 4.50 -- greed.
I could've gotten out with a tie or small loss, but I refused -- pride.
And not executing to protect myself -- stupidity.
C is now trading around 3.75, staying well below 4 on options expiration day. I have my long-term shares, but I won't be going back in for a swing trade.
I got back in, as I wrote earlier, at 3.92. It ran to 3.99 almost immediately and I assumed it would run to 4.50. This is a major mistake, to imagine that I can project or predict anything in the market. It should always be about the price action, the reality of numbers, and not my feeble imagination or worse, hope.
It was a frog-in-a-pot-of-water syndrome from there, the water starting to boil without me noticing the danger. Citigroup shares trickled lower and lower, actually surging back up to 3.90 momentarily. I thought I had a sell at 3.92 (for a tie) execute, but a minute or so later I realized that it was not so. In 30 seconds, C dropped to 3.82 and has been meandering in the 3.70s. After it sank below 3.70, I put in a sell order at 3.70. Then I forgot about it.
The order executed for a loss of 22 cents, wiping out a large portion of the gains I made in premarket (+33 cents). Lesson here? Leave well enough alone, set tight stop losses and get out with small losses.
In the 3.90s and 3.80s, I was thinking 4.50 -- greed.
I could've gotten out with a tie or small loss, but I refused -- pride.
And not executing to protect myself -- stupidity.
C is now trading around 3.75, staying well below 4 on options expiration day. I have my long-term shares, but I won't be going back in for a swing trade.
Snooze done
Didn't plan on it, but I crashed out around 30 minutes into the session. Same old, on the couch, in front of the TV. But I was in good shape actually. I knew that C would dip to an intra-day low at the 60-75 minute area. And it did, all the way to 3.55. Ouch.
I was asleep and got up about two hours in. Look at the chart and it was on a run back up and I grabbed shares at 3.92. Big battle between sellers and buyers there for awhile, but now it's at 3.99 and cutting into positive side of its MACD. I still wouldn't be surprised if C returned to the 4.50 level at least once today. Who knows? Might just take the nickel gain here.
I was asleep and got up about two hours in. Look at the chart and it was on a run back up and I grabbed shares at 3.92. Big battle between sellers and buyers there for awhile, but now it's at 3.99 and cutting into positive side of its MACD. I still wouldn't be surprised if C returned to the 4.50 level at least once today. Who knows? Might just take the nickel gain here.
Out in premarket
Wasn't a perfect trade, but profit is profit.
Citigroup announced earnings at -18 cents per share, which is a huge beat on the estimate of -34 cents. The stock ran up to 4.88 (from 4.01) in premarket -- the one that us common folks don't trade in before 2 a.m. Hawaii time.
By the time us regular people had access to trade C, it was at 4.50. I waited. Then it slipped suddenly to 4.40, 4.36 and I semi-panicked, selling the swing shares at 4.38. That's a gain of 33 cents, a huge profit. Of course, C then ran straight back up to 4.43 or so.
I told myself, no sense taking chances. Never know how vicious the selloff could be now or after the opening bell. I told myself, take the profit and look for a great re-entry point later. Might be a lot of trades on the swing side in C today. That's just fine. I'll be wide awake and observing its every move.
That last decision I made yesterday to not sell that swing position paid off. This time, gut instinct prevailed. I'm not in a rush to get back in, though. A premarket trade for the amount of shares I want is forking expensive.
Smile, Pupule. You made some money and it's only 2:16 a.m.
Citigroup announced earnings at -18 cents per share, which is a huge beat on the estimate of -34 cents. The stock ran up to 4.88 (from 4.01) in premarket -- the one that us common folks don't trade in before 2 a.m. Hawaii time.
By the time us regular people had access to trade C, it was at 4.50. I waited. Then it slipped suddenly to 4.40, 4.36 and I semi-panicked, selling the swing shares at 4.38. That's a gain of 33 cents, a huge profit. Of course, C then ran straight back up to 4.43 or so.
I told myself, no sense taking chances. Never know how vicious the selloff could be now or after the opening bell. I told myself, take the profit and look for a great re-entry point later. Might be a lot of trades on the swing side in C today. That's just fine. I'll be wide awake and observing its every move.
That last decision I made yesterday to not sell that swing position paid off. This time, gut instinct prevailed. I'm not in a rush to get back in, though. A premarket trade for the amount of shares I want is forking expensive.
Smile, Pupule. You made some money and it's only 2:16 a.m.
Thursday, April 16, 2009
Mind over matter?
There are percentage plays and there is gut instinct.
I have to say, gut instinct doesn't usually pan out in the free market. That's why numbers rule, and I like numbers. I got out of Citi twice in the last two sessions with profits, the kind that could sustain a household if it came so consistently over time. I know, regardless of how good or bad tomorrow's earnings report is, C could hit a low and recover -- because Uncle Sam has said that the major banks will not be permitted to close shop.
Yet, I had my cursor on the sell order button at 1:59 HST for my swing position, which is essentially 3/4ths of my total shares in C. The thought was that the remaining shares would be "free," the assets that are house money. Worst-case scenario, I still break even. Best case, make money without risk. It was the smart thing to do, minimizing risk on one of the two most beaten-down bank stocks going into tomorrow morning.
I pulled back, though, after mulling over it for 30 minutes, watching the after-hours trade dangle from 4.02 to 4.06 to 4.13 and finally, between 4.09 and 4.12 in the last several minutes. I know the Fed is being held more accountable for its strategy to save the financials, and in essence, the foundation of the economy -- avoiding the potential disaster of unprecedented foreclosures. That's the main reason I kept those shares, even though by selling them after hours I would've secured yet another profit and decent gain (five to eight cents a share) in a short 2-3 hours.
Gut instinct and a bit of logic went into this decision, though I hope to say later that almost all my trades were based on logic. Pure logic. I'm up 32 percent in the past month, ahead like many traders and investors in this bullish run. It could evaporate real quick come 2:30 a.m. Hawaii time. Or it could run loose like a federally-protected entity probably should.
I have to say, gut instinct doesn't usually pan out in the free market. That's why numbers rule, and I like numbers. I got out of Citi twice in the last two sessions with profits, the kind that could sustain a household if it came so consistently over time. I know, regardless of how good or bad tomorrow's earnings report is, C could hit a low and recover -- because Uncle Sam has said that the major banks will not be permitted to close shop.
Yet, I had my cursor on the sell order button at 1:59 HST for my swing position, which is essentially 3/4ths of my total shares in C. The thought was that the remaining shares would be "free," the assets that are house money. Worst-case scenario, I still break even. Best case, make money without risk. It was the smart thing to do, minimizing risk on one of the two most beaten-down bank stocks going into tomorrow morning.
I pulled back, though, after mulling over it for 30 minutes, watching the after-hours trade dangle from 4.02 to 4.06 to 4.13 and finally, between 4.09 and 4.12 in the last several minutes. I know the Fed is being held more accountable for its strategy to save the financials, and in essence, the foundation of the economy -- avoiding the potential disaster of unprecedented foreclosures. That's the main reason I kept those shares, even though by selling them after hours I would've secured yet another profit and decent gain (five to eight cents a share) in a short 2-3 hours.
Gut instinct and a bit of logic went into this decision, though I hope to say later that almost all my trades were based on logic. Pure logic. I'm up 32 percent in the past month, ahead like many traders and investors in this bullish run. It could evaporate real quick come 2:30 a.m. Hawaii time. Or it could run loose like a federally-protected entity probably should.
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