Academy hand-poured

They stopped making these at the end of 2011. Wish I'd gotten a few. I didn't because it was pricey, a hefty premium from spot. Criterion bought Academy, from what I understand, so the new "chunky" silver bars are labeled with the new name. The big difference is that the new bars aren't chrome-like and shiny.

This video is from 2010.

Monday cinema & library

Blogs
Open Secrets: 15 Tea Party caucus freshmen rake in $3.5 million (Nov 21)
Le Fly: Prepare for the Dark Ages (Nov 21)
Cain Thaler: The commentators are sheer idiots (Nov 21)
Le Fly: Feel my rage (Nov 21)
Le Fly: Nothing to be thankful for (Nov 21)
Cain Thaler: Today has the makings of a washout (Nov 21)
Golden Truth: MF Global trustee: $1.2 billion missing (Nov 21)
Scott Bleier: Psycho killer (Nov 18)

Vlogs

bigdad06: Bite this apple Jamie! (Nov 21)
streetmoney21: CME lost all credibility (Nov 21)
RT: Guest John Perkins (Nov 21)
Christopher Greene: Expect bank runs and global war in 2012 (Nov 21)
ScrapGoldBusiness: Commodity broker leaves for ethical concerns! (Nov 21)

Mainstream
Bloomberg: CME may face 'liability' in MF Global disclosure (Nov 21)
MarketWatch: MF funds shortfall could top $1.2 bln: trustee (Nov 21)
Perth Mint: World's largest gold coin (Nov 21)

Eye candy

Tuesday cinema & library (updated 900 pm HST)

Blogs
Upside Trader: Why I shorted financials twice in 2 days (Oct 25)
Le Fly: You are cordially invited (Oct 25)
Cain Thaler: I told you they'd disappoint (Oct 25)
Le Fly: Hedge fund relief rally stalled (Oct 25)
Cain Thaler: QE3 is coming (Oct 25)
Le Fly: There is only one long trade here (Oct 25)
Le Fly: Devil is in details (Oct 25)
Rajun Cajun: What I'm looking at this morning (Oct 25)
Golden Truth: Housing continues death spiral (Oct 25)

Vlogs

(new) streetmoney21: Gold, silver finally make a move (Oct 25)

(new) bullorbearreport: Silver rebound, markets looking bullish (Oct 25)

Truth Never Told: The Riddle (Oct 25)

Peter Schiff: How govt stimulus spending and deficits impact capital markets (Oct 25)

Wearchange.org: Russell Simmons on End the Fed (Oct 25)

endless mountain: Stock market and silver technical analysis (Oct 25)

ScrapGoldBusiness: Time has come to buy silver (Oct 25)

Kitco: Bill Murphy, Jeff Christian (Oct 25)

Jim Comiskey: Daily market insights - Metals futures (Oct 25)

Audio
Peter Schiff Radio (Oct 25)

Chris Martenson: Guest Eric Sprott (Oct 25)

Mainstream

Reuters: Amazon profits fall more than expected (Oct 25)

Technical difficulty (updated 315 pm)

 FAZ returns to the lower megaphone range, but for how long? 

FAS in a near-term pennant/flag with room to go higher? 

10:28 am (Hawaii) Price still matters.

There's really no reason why technicals need to be discounted in a market as schizo as this. Almost everything is subject to headline risk, more on the bear side than bull, and today's move up in the indices - Dow +272, +2.5%, 11,043; Nas +33, +1.35%, 2,516; S&P 500 +25, +2.3%, 1,162) - was no shock. Yet I tried to trade against it early in the day even while it should've been clear that selling FAZ and buying FAS was best in the financials.

I finally quit on FAZ as a daytrade at 65+, taking a second small loss on the day. Totally avoidable, and even my own chart with megaphone patters and the fairly recent pennant/flag pattern, FAZ looked ready for some profit-taking. FAZ is at 61.71 after hours, off the intraday low of 60.86.

FAS climbed 11.3% to 11.72. Once it gapped up at the open (while FAZ gapped down), it should've been clear as day. The machines that own this market often trade on patterns and technicals, particularly when there is no headline risk in the near term. Gap up, finishes strong. Gap down, closes weakly. That's just what happened in FAS and FAZ.

One true oddity is that AGQ and ZSL finished in the red. AGQ hit a near-term low this morning at 96.75, but rallied and is at 114.74 after hours (-3.3%). ZSL is down 7% to 17.99. How can a bull ETN and a bear ETN on the same metal (silver) each be down that much? Yes, there is something fucking rotten in Denmark. That's paper silver. No regrets about steering clear of paper silver for weeks and months now. I'm still convinced that the puppeteers are generally long gold and short silver. The price action says it all. Bear Stearns' massive short position was left on JPMorgan's lap, and with the backing of govt power, they keep shorting silver and/or covering shorts.

AGQ 1-year

ZSL 1-year

That's not going to cause me to unload a single ounce of physical metal. I just like to know what the realities and probabilities are.

Gold spot price

Silver spot price

Gold at 1520 or so earlier today must've been painful for some people. DGP is well off its day low of 49.66, now at 52.79 after hours. That's still -2.2% for the day, putting DGP at early July levels. After four down days in a row with massive gap downs, can this support level hold? The practical reasons for owning gold are still in play. Whether people believe price is manipulated by puppeteers or we've simply had a massive profit-taking run, gold may not get any cheaper here at the 1600 level. 

DGP 1-year

DZZ 1-year

This just might be a good time to average in with the physical rather than try and time a grand slam homer. If spot silver keeps selling and later bounces off 21, it'll make some sense to me based on the snapback/rubber band theory I posted recently. It's more fantasy fun than concrete and factual. But it's enough to make anyone think about what could happen if all the stars lined up and gold sold at an untethered, unleashed price. Silver would become the tail of that comet. 

My Regular watch list is 62% green, 37% red, 1 neutral. Many of the leaders traded on solid volume today. FAS was atop the list with strong volume and FAZ closed at the bottom on fairly soft volume. In other words, there are still a lot of traders holding FAZ, probably since the recent dips to 55, 53, even going back a month or two to 50. Whatever dips happen (maybe as low as 40-44), I still see FAZ at 100 eventually due to Euro and US debt crises.

Noticed that GSVC is off the board or something right now. Basic info on my trading platform is "n/a" though Yahoo Finance has it at 14.15 for its last trade. It's going through a secondary offering real soon, not my cup of tea though I tried trading this a couple of months ago. It was a classic case of buying high and selling low. Sure the market was going through effed up gyrations, but price does still matter. Any buy of GSVC below 12 and any sell above 18 would've been Basic Trading 101 regardless of whether you believe in this company (the next CMGI?) or not.

Winners on my Regular watch list were WNR (+10.4%), YOKU (+9.1%), CRR (+8.1%), EXK (+7.5%), TSO (+7.4%), C (+7%), STR (+5.3%), SWY (+5.2%). A load of big winners (above 2%), even NFLX (+2.4%).

My Metals watch list was 43% green, 56% red, 1% neutral. AVL (+17.2%), SVM (+7.5%), EXK, GSS (+4.9%), DZZ (+4.8%) were the leaders.

My focus is still narrowed down to FAZ (and now FAS), paper gold (DGP, DZZ) with an eye on paper silver (AGQ, ZSL) and the leader of retail, AAPL, which rallied from its intraday low of 391 to 402 (-0.4%).

Maybe today was the only big-gain day of the week. Maybe we're in for choppy waters, but range bound. Maybe selling is mostly done for now. Maybe buying also done. I like FAZ below 60. Like it better at 55 or 50. I have more confidence that spot gold has hit a bottom than silver. All cash works fine right now. If the indices are up and precious metals still finish red overall today, I'm not going to fight facts, even with momentum in PMs late in the day.

Update 2:01 pm Could be a trap. Could be the bottom. Gold is going back up at some point. I'm willing to wager that the process has begun, so I got a handful of DGP before after-hours trading closed. 

Wednesday cinema & library

Charts

Is this the bottom for spot gold and silver? Is 1800 the floor in gold? Is DGP worth a small position here? Maybe a small scale-in ... but there are too many wolves out there and nobody needs to be a sheep right now.

Blogs

Le Fly: This is NOT as easy as it looks (Sept 7)

"I am now +80% overnight on my TNA calls. I am not selling until the PPT registers OVERBOUGHT. ... If you want to become a pro in this business, you need to control your fucking emotions. The most important aspect of investing is knowing your talent."

Turd Ferguson: WARNING (updated) (Sept 7)

"In an attempt to mitigate the 'negative' effect on francs priced in gold, the SNB sold a massive amount of gold futures at the same time. ... Maximize the downward impact and collateral damage by executing the attack at a time of minimal liquidity. This all wreaks of malicious manipulation."

Chart Swiss Francs: 700,000 ounces dumped on the Globex while London and New York are closed

(Update) "If you believe as I do that this current beatdown in gold is being engineered by the SNB, then why would you think they would rest before pushing gold all the way back down ... to somewhere between 1700 and 1750? It may take until tomorrow or Friday but confidence is high that gold is headed there."

Zero Hedge: Gold Flash (Sept 7)

"Was it a European bank selling more gold to fund itself? Hedge fund liquidation? Hillebrand needing some funding?"

Institutional Investor: Market conditions make Appaloosa's David Tepper cautious(Sept 7)

"Sources say he has gone 30 percent to 40 percent in cash, which is very high for him. Some of his cash is invested in U.S. Treasuries, which have in turn risen in value in recent weeks."

Le Fly: The bubble in non-risk is popping (Sept 7)

"At the open, I doubled down on my TBT position, with cause. It appears the power elite are dismantling the 'risk off' trades, namely Swiss Francs, gold, silver and very soon Treasuries."

Le Fly: Enter the meat-grinder (Sept 7)

"We're due to bounce hard off oversold levels. I am anticipating a 200-500 point move higher from here. ... What if the FHFA lawsuit is a way to threaten the banks, in order to make them open the spigots? Perhaps the government is using a little leverage in their efforts to get those fuckers to start lending again."

Sy Nejem: War (Sept 7)

"Within the past week, the Swiss National Bank dismissed the possibility of interventions to manage the Swiss Franc and then did a complete about-face on that stance. These are efforts undertaken during the latter stages of a battle, when one side starts gaining an obvious edge." 

George Maniere: Why silver may currently be one of the best long-term investments (Sept 7)

"Silver has put in seven confirmed bottoms along the trend line. Once it breaks this resistance level ($44) it will have the $50 level of resistance to break through."

Jeff Nielson: 'Unsinkable' gold (Aug 29)

"Gold is the only asset class capable of outperforming other asset classes in either an 'inflationary' or 'solvency' crisis ... the only asset class capable of protecting us from these simultaneous economic calamities." 

Vlogs

Keiser Report: Fake Assets (Sept 6)

> Artist Alex Schaefer ("Chase Burning")

Audio

Goldseek: James Turk (Sept 6)

Blog commentary
Shelby (GoldWeTrust.up-with.com): WARNING: Massive crash in gold & silver coming in November (Aug 29)

"So what is happening now in 2011, is the same as 2007-2008. The mad movement up of silver and gold is exactly the same as what happened after the SPY peaked in 2007. ... it will end up the same as 2008 because big money cannot buy gold, the only liquid market in the world is the US Treasury market, and 'bug heads' are going to get another lesson in this." 

"Oct 24-Nov 4 2011, (S&P 500) will gyrate around the 200 wma for up to 2 weeks, then crash. There is no limit to how far it can crash, as it could bottom anywhere between 666 and 950."

"After Oct 7, 2011, gold will rise for 2 weeks to about $1850 while the S&P 500 is crashing down to its 200 wma to 1030. On Oct 24, gold will start its worst crash to go down below the 50 wma within about 2 weeks. ... gold will go down to $1370."

Reports

MarketWatch: Feds say Bank of America worse than Countrywide (Sept 7)
AP: Stocks surge after Germany upholds bailout plan (Sept 7)

CNBC: Gold may top $6,000, silver $600: Asset manager (Sept 5)

Minyanville: Silver, silver stocks forming bullish cup and handle pattern (Sept 6)

Wikileaks: US embassy cable - 09BEIJING1134 (Sept 3)

"China's increased gold reserves will thus act as a model and lead other countries towards reserving more gold. Large gold reserves are also beneficial in promoting the internationalization of the RMB."

Video

Metal bling

Quality Silver Bullion: September Discount Code (Sept 2)

eBay: US Treasury silver bar (95.83 oz) sells for $3,127 - $36.43/oz (Sept 3)
Private Collection: Chinese Silver Dragon Beads (Jan 20 2010)

Silver rubber band

11:22 am (Hawaii) All this fluctuation action in gold, silver, equities, bonds, Treasuries, weather, the size of Lindsey Lohan's (you name it) ... nothing matters as long as I can lay here in the shade, outdoors and stare at the blue sky. Sunshine sparkling on the foliage nearby. Birds singing. Breeze lilting. Fuck all the other stuff. I treasure this moment of peace.

That being said, it was on a long drive the other day when I started thinking, who the hell really knows how high (or low) gold and silver will go. Even Mike Maloney thinks both will rip, then burst as the investment turns into a bubble at some point with pop culture flooding through the entry gate. For now, though, maybe a rubber band snapback to higher highs and higher lows is in effect regardless of puppetry by the CME mafia, Swiss National Bank, JP Morgan, blah blah blaaah.

So in the most overly simplistic mathematical ratio possible, here's one dense summary of spot silver:

The most recent surge took price from $19 to $49, followed by a pullback to $32. (Yes, I'm ignoring the run to $21 and that subsequent pullback to $9.) That's an increase of 258% and a drop of 35%, so those are the numbers I'll use for this rubber band action.

$19 —> $49 (+258%)

$49 —> $32 (-35%)

$32 —> $82 (+258%)

$82 —> $53 (-35%)

$53 —> $136 (+258%)

$136 —> $88 (-35%)

$88 —> $227 (+258%)

$227 —> $147 (-35%)

$147 —> $379 (+258%)

$379 —> $246 (-35%)

$246 —> $634 (+258%)

$634 —> $412 (-35%)

$412 —> $1,062 (+258%)

Now, at this point, sure this is pure fantasy. Nothing repeats perfectly over this long a time frame, especially when manipulation is so prominent, and when it comes from the freaking highest levels of power. But there are real possible reasons why silver can go to $1,062 and beyond. Though the bubble will burst at some point, before then, public demand will be insanely heavy. And before that, the central banks and elitists will have plenty of gold and silver in their coffers. Buried in chests and all that. Treasure maps hidden away. Whatever. But the large numbers will overwhelm what we currently view as TPTB. That's what makes governments tremble, when millions are in the streets calling for change. The Swiss caving in to economic and political pressure yesterday doomed the last vestige of stability for currency in Euroland. Sure, there's short-term bliss, but longer term, there's no footing for any Euro economy.

There isn't a single stable fiat currency in the world. And there won't be one until the US quits printing dollars by the trillions.

Almost every silver and gold bug anticipates a period of anarchy followed by fundamental governmental change. Political change. Fiscal change. Control change. Silver at $1,062 will probably mean a gallon of gas and a bag of rice (or loaf of bread) will be astronomically expensive. That's the down side of viewing silver and/or gold as an investment. Unlike holding AAPL from $15 to $400, there's no real way to beat inflation and hyperinflation. Precious metals will allow me to retain buying power and not lose to inflation. That's the reality. (The other reality is to own farm land and live off the grid, but that's not an option for most of us, is it?)

That's why I don't automatically assume AGQ runs to $382 when spot silver returns to $50. The landscape constantly changes, and so will price action. But, if the rubber band effect of my fantasy is realized, I'll enjoy some relief in knowing that it was wise to be proactive.

Stackin' and packin'

9:46 am (Hawaii) Of course there are things I'd do much differently if I could go back in time. One would be to have a more balanced approach to life. To saving. To investing. I'd have put some hard-earned dollars into physical precious metals. But it's useless to dwell on the past. Is silver still worth accumulating now? The answer for me is obvious, but 99% of the population will never go for the concept and reality of gold and silver as true money in the purest sense of VALUE.

My aim in putting my modest savings into precious metals is a deterrent, a defensive maneuver to protect the value. I don't assume the fiat dollars assessed to gold and silver will rise exponentially, though it is a real possibility. I just refuse to let my dollar sit in a bank with a putrid interest rate when there are alternatives like real money.

I played with my newest arrivals today. It was fun. Almost as fun as buying this stash a few Sundays ago when spot gold was at $1,660, just before the latest run to $1,917.

US Mint raises ASE proof 14%

10:32 am (Hawaii) I noted last night that the US Mint site had taken its American Eagle 1-oz Silver Proof Coin off the table to adjust the previous price of $59.95. My guess was that they'd move the price up to $64.95 and continue increasing over time at $5 increments, similar to what they did with the First Spouse gold coins.

Well, the new price is up today: $68.45. That's a 14% increase. I'm glad I got a few proofs, my first ever, while it was at the $59.95 price. But now I'm wishing I had more even though this increase is ridiculous. At $59.95, it felt cheap as spot silver rose from 37 to 44. But with spot silver back at 40, $68.45 has gone from a ridiculous premium to an unfathomable one: 70 PERCENT!

That's how it goes when emotion is involved, and emotion is involved because this is one hell of a beautiful coin. But enough is enough. No new ASE proofs for me, not for awhile.

Thursday cinema & library (updated 1030 pm HST)

Blogs

(new) Zero Hedge: Caution: Another gold margin hike imminent (Aug 25)

(new) Jake Gint: Hello darkness my old friend (Aug 26)

(new) Jim Sinclair: Selling against the angels expected (Aug 25)

> "For heaven's sake, stop barfing into weakness. Stop selling weakness and buying strength. That is a kindergarten type error."

(new) Monty Guild: Market commentary (Aug 25)

(new) SGS: WWSD (Aug 25)

(new) Le Fly: Prepare to get (Jackson) holed (Aug 25)

(new) Le Fly: The great showdown is near (Aug 25)

(new) Le Fly: Position update: GSVC (Aug 25)

(new) Le Fly: The Buffett deal is defensive (Aug 25)

Chris Duane (Silver Shield): Silver Shield's final warning (Aug 25)

> "We are on the knife's edge of a major shift that will make silver untouchable if you do not secure your metal right now."

Turd Ferguson: (pm) Looking better (Aug 25)

> Charts Gold Dec 15-min | Gold Dec 4-hour | Silver Sept 15-min | Silver Sept 4-hour

Turd Ferguson: (am) This ain't horseshoes (Aug 25)

> Charts Gold Dec 3-hour | Gold Dec 6-hour | Silver Sept 8-hour

Vlogs

H1INC: Warren Buffett: The retarded fuckery continues (Aug 25)

James Turk: Peter Spina interview at GATA (Aug 25)

APMEX: What will Fed chairman Ben Bernanke say tomorrow? (Aug 25)

Endless Mountain: Trading in paper rectangles (Aug 25)

Endless Mountain: Three silver charts I rely on the most (Aug 25)

Storm Clouds Gathering: Why we left the US (permanently) (Aug 25)

george4title: Sacramento powder coating company APC interview (Aug 25)

Christopher Greene: Buffett Bashing 101 (Aug 25)

Christopher Greene: Buffett strikes again! (Aug 25)

Keiser Report: Chris Martenson (Aug 24)

Wide Awake News: The 'LIE' of the storm (Aug 24)

Christopher Greene: 'The End of America' a tale of deception and misinformation (Aug 24)

Scrap Gold Business: Gold falls - Is gold and silver being manipulated? (Aug 24)

Audio

Reports
Rick Munarriz: There's no place like Zillow (Aug 25)

Video

Fox: Schiff: 'Bernanke is going to keep printing money!' (Aug 24)

Blog commentary

Metal bling

Alexiscom1: 999 silver bullion coins for UK, Canada and US (Aug 25)

Game Plan Redux

9:43 am (Hawaii) Now that I'm back to cash, what to do? My gut says stay put and see how things unfold leading into and right through Jackson Hole on Friday. Doing less will be doing more. So I remain bullish on physical gold and silver. I have all my coins superglued to my arms, legs, basically my extremities. Not really. But you get the idea.

I. Long/bullish physical PMs.
II. Cash, no equities.
III. Possibly will go short PM paper via ZSL, DZZ.
IV. Pending more Eurocrash news, short banks via FAZ.
V. By Friday (Jackson Hole), prepared to go long via QQQ, AAPL, BIDU, FAS.
VI. After QE3 momentum slows to a halt, riding DGP again. Maybe AGQ.

It'll be interesting to see, if Bernanke speaketh quantitative easing on Friday, how the miners do. They usually trade in tandem with the market, but this could be different. Maybe. I won't touch miners anymore, but I'm watching for entertainment value.

If BB does speaketh of QE3 Friday, I give it a week max of a rocket ride for the market. But it could fizzle out much sooner, maybe even in hours. Maybe on news that SocGen falters, triggering a domino effect across the continent. It's coming. Just a matter of time.

Efficiency vs Frequency

11:00 am Lame. I entered FAZ at 69.35 and stopped myself out at 68.40. It's at 69.38 after hours. I've had some profitable trades in FAZ, but more and more, I just end up clipping myself out with break-evens or small losses. Today was a series of silly attempts to chase FAZ even though I had a specific price level (67.50) in mind. I was unwilling to buy AGQ below 229 and add DGP below 69. AGQ is now 242.52 and DGP is 69.22, both holding most of their gains and then some. So why chase FAZ? That's something I need to just avoid, period, by sticking to price points. It's the simplest, most efficient way for me. Technicals and trend lines are all great, but when I have stuck by targets, I've done far better overall by staying out rather than chasing.

What threw me off, in hindsight, was seeing FAZ drop all the way to 63.00. Had my doubts — emotion — after that even as it rose back to 67 and 68. Instead of a discounted price, I paid higher, logic losing out to emotion.

Long term, I'd be better served, in all probability, by not trying to trade in and out of these vehicles intraday. Example: The Fed could unveil some new form of QE on Sunday night and spark a bull run. FAZ could tank back to 55, even 45. But as we saw recently, every dead cat bounce is sold off. FAZ would eventually return to 70 and then 80, and then 100.

It might be time for me to adjust time frames and shoot for longer swings rather than quick putts. Or just limit quick momo trades to days when there is a major catalyst, like Euro bank destruction.

Adjusted game plan

I. Longer-term holds: physical PMs.

II. Short-term holds: gold and/or silver ETFs.

III. Quick trades: FAZ (on debt crisis headlines), FAS (if and when QE3 is announced), TVIX (on major riot headlines).

I've been 50% to 100% cash for most of this year.

I probably won't bother with FAS and TVIX since I'm asleep through a good portion of the session on most days.

As for today, it was good to be disciplined when the vehicles on my radar gapped up. Not good to avoid them as they dipped. I'm going to examine why I sometimes refuse to buy low and sometimes prefer to buy HIGH.

Phil Town is a master of that. He entered AAPL back in 2009 at 80 or so, precisely calling a bottom in what had been a devastating correction. AAPL has pulled back during the current pullback from 400+ to 356, but I'd say Town has done fairly well.

The only things I can see making a run similar to that are physical gold, physical silver, DGP, AGQ. Maybe FAZ. The AGQ/spot silver relationship is still on my mind. When silver went from 40 to 49+, AGQ went from 220 to 382. That's a 74% gain in AGQ and roughly 25% in spot silver.

Today, silver gained roughly 5.2%. AGQ is up 10.3%. There's reason to believe AGQ is worth trading to net more dollars and buy more physical — much more — even with spot price eventually at 50.

So that's FAZ which I am convinced will hit 100 (while bouncing all over like a pinball). There's AGQ which I have to say will bust through 300 and possibly 400 because spot silver at 50 is a high probability.

Of course, there's DGP. This is proof that ignorance can be costly. Just a year or two ago, I had no clue about real money, sound money, historical money. I viewed gold as a rich man's hoard, something heiresses and gold-digging hotties cared about. Something only a richass rapper could afford. Turns out they were all wiser than me. The instinctive attraction to gold is almost embedded in our DNA. It is internationally understood. Wave some bars of gold around wherever you are in the world, and 99.9% of people won't need to understand a word you say.

It'll be weird one day to see gold out of favor again, when the 30-year cycle turns over, as Mike Maloney points out in his book. If enough gold and silver can transform into farmland and a home, and provide ample resources completely independent of the grid, it's all anyone can ask for.

Thursday cinema & library (updated 200 am HST)

10:47 am (Hawaii) As a nation, the American Dream was noble enough. It didn't work in reality. Families disintegrated. The broken home has become the norm with a 50% divorce rate. It was unattainable. In some twisted, unexpected way, we are being driven back to our roots. Families will open doors to relatives. Grandmothers will live with their grandchildren again. The lack of employment will force at least one parent to be home with the children, where making do will mean much more, and making dough will be literal rather than figurative.

I don't relish future austerity, but my guess is that many of us have gotten used to some form of frugality or another. If it means living on a farm and growing our own vegetables, raising our own food, is that such a bad way of life?

Update 2:30 pm (Hawaii) An amazing climb by gold in the Asian market. Gold hit a new high of 1834, now at 1832. Silver hanging in there at 40.74.

Update 7:17 pm (Hawaii) A few hours away from the world wide web and what happens? Asia has unleashed the dragon — the Golden Dragon. Spot is now $1,842/oz. Brother Turd Ferguson noted that crude is down, market futures are down and it looks like tomorrow might be a "bloodbath." I've come to expect the unexpected after all these years. I pondered re-opening a position in FAZ or AGQ earlier today. I guess what I should've been doing was adding more DGP! Not to be greedy or anything. No. Greed bad. Greed bad.

Blogs

(new) Louis James: Doug Casey - We're exiting the eye of the storm (Aug 18)

> "If the dollar is destroyed, all these people who were wise and frugal, they are going to be wiped out. They are going to be left with absolutely nothing. This is criminal — it's the stuff revolutions are made of. ... Prudence will drive people into buying more physical gold. Greed will drive people into gold stocks."

(new) Reggie Middleton: US bank risk stands woefully underappreciated!!! (Aug 18)

(new) Dan Norcini: Silver stuff (Aug 18)

> Charts Silver daily | Gold-Silver ratio monthly

(new) Harvey Organ: We are inches away from DEFCON (Aug 18)

> "Rumours were flying all over the place this morning. We heard that two Italian banks, Unicredit, the largest bank in Italy and Intesa bank were both insolvent."

(new) SGS: Nothing much to say really (Aug 18)

> "Silver ... Received a text today about an 11:00 am (Eastern) raid tomorrow."

(new) Turd Ferguson: Chugging forward (late night update) (Aug 18)
> Charts Gold Dec 8-hr | Silver Sept daily
(new) Bruce Krasting: The Fed bombed the market - I ask, 'Why?' (Aug 18)
(new) Tony Pallotta: It sure looks like 2008 (Aug 18)
> Chart 2008 vs. 2011

(new) What QE3 will look like (Aug 18)

(new) Washington's Blog: Amazing science breakthroughs (Aug 18)

John Ellis: The Obama collapse accelerates (Aug 18)

Jesse's Cafe Americain: Gold daily, silver weekly charts (Aug 18)

Dan Norcini: Mining share ratio to gold back at pre QE1 levels (Aug 18)
> Chart Emini S&P 500 daily

King World News: Eric Sprott: Price of silver should be $110 to $120 today (Aug 18)

King World News: Ben Davies: Expect $2,100 gold by end of December (Aug 18)

voxOnox: Did Chavez just spark Gold Powder Keg? (Aug 18)

Zero Hedge: Cue panic as Fed lends $200 million to Swiss National Bank (Aug 18)

Turd Ferguson: (am) Like clockwork (Aug 18)

> Charts Gold Dec 4-hr | Gold Dec hourly | Silver Sept 2-hr | Silver Sept daily

SGS: Sprott selling gold, buying silver now (Aug 18)

Zero Hedge: Homes have never been more affordable (with one footnote) (Aug 18)

Endless Mountain: The Silver Blog (Aug 18)

Michael McKay: Don't swallow the Fed's $16 trillion suicide pill (Aug 18)

SGTbull07: World markets melt, silver holds, gold explodes - the people awaken? (Aug 18)

Vedran Vuk/Bud Conrad: Is QE3 already in the works? (Aug 18)

Tom Cullis: Why market will fight Fed on gold (Aug 18)

J.W. Jones: Are gold and S&P 500 behaving logically or irrationally? (Aug 18)

SGS: Is Venezuela getting ready for TSTHTF? (Aug 17)

Gary Vermeulen: Gold, stocks to move in opposite directions (Aug 17)

Zig Lambo: Frank Holmes: Gold fighting for deflation, not inflation (Aug 17)

Golden Truth: High crimes at SEC: Time to fire and prosecute Mary Shapiro (Aug 17)

Harvey Organ: Gold hits record close at Comex (Aug 17)

Gary North: Too many emergency meetings in Europe (Aug 16)

Egon von Greyerz: Too late to jump on the goldwagon? (Aug 15)

Vlogs

(new) Bull or Bear Report: Gold +$47! Whaat? Loss in confidence crash (Aug 19)

(new) Realist News: Eric Sprott dumping some gold to buy silver? Yes (Aug 18)

(new) bigdad06: American Jedi! (Aug 18)

(new) WE Pollock: Global breakdown crisis - From extremity to core (Aug 18)

Realist News: Chavez wants his gold from US, England (Aug 18)
LibertarianRealist: Physical precious metals beat Wall Street's scammy ETFs (Aug 18)

Sean Brodrick: Silver's next surge (Aug 18)

ScrapGoldBusiness: Something big is going on - financial panic? (Aug 18)

Christopher Greene: 'Buy the dip' if you want to lose your life savings! (Aug 18)

Pastor Dowell: Gold is right on the heels of platinum! (Aug 18)

Pastor Dowell: Fractional reserve banking understanding (Aug 18)

Al Korelin: Marshall Berol sees gold stocks lagging behind spot (Aug 18)

Al Korelin: In the field: Majestic Gold's new China mill (Aug 18)
New World Next Week: Kids for cash, flash robs (Aug 18)
Hit the Bid: Stock market has been broken. Ron Paul for prez (Aug 18)
stowmaker1945: Chavez to nationalize gold industry, withdraw gold reserves from US (Aug 18)
Endless Mountain: The Silver Log - Dow project, inflation, price update (Aug 18)

quietman1k: House of Rothschild vs. US Presidents (Aug 18)

(new*) Reggie Middleton: Potential of a Euro banking crisis (Apr 14)

> Worth another look

Blog commentary

The Vet: Why the JPM COMEX silver scam will last forever (Aug 18)

Juan Moment: [Silver] It truly is coming (Aug 18)

Juan Moment: Silver v JPM share price (Aug 18)

Audio

(new) Wide Awake Radio: Stock Market Crash 2011 & Bank Runs (Aug 18)
Peter Schiff: All the fools are buying Treasuries (Aug 18)

King World News: Bill Fleckenstein (Aug 17)

Peter Schiff: Hyperinflation, gold and the true economy (Aug 16)

Reports
CNBC: Is this Lehman again? No, but it sure feels like it (Aug 18)
CNBC: Behind the selloff: Stocks are pricing in 'worst-case scenario' (Aug 18)
CNBC: HP offers to buy autonomy, outlook disappoints (Aug 18)

Business Insider: Markets demolished (Aug 18)

Ekathimerini: Austria kicks up fuss about Finnish collateral deal with Greece (Aug 18)

CNBC: World Gold Council: Demand still strong - but changing (Aug 18)

WSJ: Fed eyes European banks (Aug 18)

Natural News: FDA pushing to allow paid drug company shills to fill advisory positions (Aug 18)

Business Insider: Things in Europe are so bad, junior bankers must fly coach (Aug 18)

Globe & Mail: Think gold may lose some lustre? Eric Sprott sees a silver lining (Aug 17)

CNBC: Treasury yields to plunge before hyperinflation kicks in: SocGen (Aug 17)

Guardian: If Assad falls, the region's alliances unravel (Apr 11)

Video

Alex Jones: Max Keiser: 4th Reich theory (Aug 18)

Kevin Gallagher: Bob Chapman (Aug 18)

Keiser Report: Crimogenic UK (Aug 18)

Fox: Schiff: The worst is yet to come for markets (Aug 17)

RT: Coining terrorism (Aug 17)

CNBC: Simon Hobbs to Jim Cramer: You told people to buy Bear Stearns (Aug 18)

CNBC: Cramer on Bear Stearns loan (Mar 14 2008)

Metal bling

SGS: Guest post: Now what? (Aug 18)

Cramer vs. Hobbs squabble

What's next? Boxing for Charity?

Measure of manhood?

6:36 am (Hawaii) Really? I refuse to go "all in" on my firm belief (and understanding) that our economy is in dire straits ... and I miss out on the opportunity to go full tilt in DGP, FAZ, QQQ, etc ... Is this a lack of faith? A lack of conviction?

A lack of MANHOOD?

I hate to put it that way, but I must. Why else would I still be 33% cash at a time when I say repeatedly that FAZ is going to 100? I have more physical now, but I won't back it up or double/triple/quadruple that up with more DGP (up 2.8% to 67.15). I don't even have any AGQ, which has touched 218.

DJ -391 (11,015), Nas -106 (2,404), S&P 500 -47 (1,146). My Regular watch list is 21% green, 79% red, and most of those greens are bear plays.

Watching the occasional throwback video like Peter Schiff on Fox or CNBC in 2008 or 2007 being blasted by permabulls ... it provides some dark humor and clear perspective in comparison to similar segments now. Most hedge funders are protecting themselves in this environment, but are more than happy to say on air that they're going buybuybuy on the next dip. They're probably right. There's probably more roller coaster action ahead. They're also like Gartman, constantly in and out of gold — and completely dismissing silver.

It's an advantage in one way to be a retail, peon trader. Guys like us don't think about the minutae. We don't have people to answer to aside from our spouses or whomever. We see the big picture without being apron-tied to sectors or specialties. We sit here in our shorts (or underwear) and manage for our needs, not clients or bosses. We forge unions, so to speak, with other independent minds and seek information that the puppetmasters prefer to bury.

Metals list is 44% green, 56% red. Only a couple handfuls are at least 1.5% up. I do have bank and oil ETFs/ETNs in that mix just for convenience, and FAZ is still up 13%, though nearly $2 off its high of 67.00. Thinly-traded FSG (gold) is up 11% and SCO (crude oil bear) is up 9.6%. TWM (Russell bear) is up 9.6% and QID is up 8.4%.

GPL +4.6%, NGD +3.2%, UGL +3.1%, DGP +2.9% ... miners are doing fairly well so far. My favorites, EXK (-1.5%) and XG (-1.8%) not doing so hot. Haven't touched miners in a couple of weeks, no plans to re-enter.

Scottsdale Silver says ...

6:40 am (Hawaii) E-mail from Scottsale Silver this morning:

We've got product in stock but with the recent demand we are back to a 1-2 week shipping window on most items. Major incoming purchases globally have us projecting that this may expand out further. We are doing our best to provide our customers with quick delivery of the FINEST bullion available.

What does this mean? Maybe demand is getting stronger. Scottsdale makes some of the most beautiful silver products, including the 5-oz Prey bar. That was cool when they offered it to members before issuing it for the general public. No discount, just early availability. Nothing they sell is at a discount. Kind of an art boutique more than a big discounter. I lean toward physical metal as cheap as possible, particularly Eagles, but I still enjoy round and bars by SS.

Couldn't help it

12:07 pm (Hawaii) I should be out the door by now, but couldn't resist 1) ogling the gold and silver charts, which resulted in 2) me buying more gold and silver. I was willing to take the chance of trying to buy spot prices exploding, but listed price at one of my favorite dealers was still based on Friday's close, so I put in for more physical.

Gold is a friend to the end. Silver is a sexy bitch. I don't believe in a one-or-the-other scenario. Both will stabilize any portfolio as long as you can stand the minute-by-minute, day-by-day turbulence.

Off to the road for real this time.

Steady and slow

11:49 am (Hawaii) Just a few minutes before Asia markets open and I have to be out the door and on the road. I'll keep updated online as I make pit stops along the way. A lot of anticipation, but slow and steady will rule in the long run.

After making some gold and silver purchases over the weekend, my plan is this: 1) Do not buy more physical before Asia opens, 2) wait for the US market to open in roughly 14 hours, 3) if metals remain bullish, open a new position in AGQ and/or add to DGP (I'm expecting XG to pull back with the rest of the market), 4) sell out of any new metal positions before the close, 5) anticipate the probability of the CME mafia kneecapping gold and/or silver afterhours (before Asia re-opens), 6) use profits from Monday's paper trade to buy more physical on the dip, however temporary it will be.

(Why not go all in for gold and silver now? As I mentioned last week, AGQ is an example of what can happen for paper metal in a percentage gain. It went from 220 to 382 (all-time high) in a month for a 72% gain while spot silver "only" went from 40 to 50, a 25% gain. It could be totally different this time, but until I see evidence of a change in that ratio (72% vs. 25%) in silver, I'll lean toward trading AGQ before I buy more physical silver after the trading week begins.)

I could be wrong. Maybe the markets all lose 10% in the coming week and metals get liquidified (my word) no matter what. Then I'd step back, no paper trades, no physical trades until a bottom is somewhat established in gold and silver. No rush here. The unwinding will be ugly, but it will not happen in an instant. This is one sick patient, completely overdosed. The toxins will take a long time to undo.

Off to the road.

Snake oil salesmen

12:03 pm (Hawaii) Sure, the bondsman said. We'll pay you back. Guaranteed!

No. No way all this debt gets straightened out. There's no squaring all this crapola. Even with central banks and governments intervening. The most cartoonish, extreme parallel is the old "Why give a drunk more liquor?" scenario. Right? Why would you give a spendaholic an open line of credit ... then expect to be repaid in full. Not gunna happen.

That being said, I should be long FAZ, never mind that it's gone from 44 to 63 in a matter of days. I should've been long based on 1) fundamentals and 2) conviction. But I lacked conviction, so it has flown higher. Maybe 63.35 (after hours) isn't a bad entry price, but with Jackson Hole on Tuesday and QE3 (or some version) coming, I'll wait for FAZ to plunge.

Gold? At 1643 or so overnight, it was a good drop from the high above 1680 earlier in the day. Today, gold dropped to just above 1650 before rallying to 1663 at the close. Two notable trends: 1) Asia has been taking PM prices higher, 2) 12 noon is when stateside entities sell it off. That's the CME mafia for ya.

Right now, silver is something I refuse to buy — the paper version. Yes, AGQ could and should go back to new highs above 382 at some point. But right now, it can't walk straight and chew gum at the same time without the puppetmasters yanking its legs out from under. When noon came yesterday and today (Eastern time), silver had no chance. It was at 42 when the selloff began yesterday. It was at 39 when the drop hit again. Silver closed at 38.32, which makes this weekend's shopping trip into Metal City a bit more interesting. I wanted a pullback to 40. I want a pullback to 35. Even 32. But if and when QE3 hits the market, prices in PMs will surge with the rest of the market. Miners, in particular, will get a huge lift, riding that same wave as equities.

The wave won't go very far, and that's why I'm not adding mining shares or planning to hold XG very much longer. (Even with XG at a low today of 10.28.) There are external factors in a mining stock or stocks like AAPL. Trading a PM ETF like AGQ or ZSL repels stuff like mining costs, delivery costs, employment costs, tax issues. Simple works better in this market. So I'm holding my small portion of DGP, XG and GSVC. GSVC got as low as 13.10 today and closed at 13.79. That's a major pullback since two weeks ago, when it went from 10 to the high 19s. It's cheap here, but I'm not adding again, not yet. I want to see some consolidation first. I want to keep my positions small and be disciplined about it. Keeping some dry powder at my side is crucial.

They keep lying to us, most of these snake oil salesmen on Capitol Hill. They're in cahoots with Pure Greed, the banksters, so I believe nothing they say. But I'm not above making a buck once a trend is established. I'll be happy to short the banksters via FAZ. But if and when QE3 kicks in, I might be tempted to go long FAS for a few minutes or hours. More likely I'd go long PMs and/or AAPL. Maybe add more GSVC. In the end, I'm looking out for myself. I suggest we all do the same.

Silver was at 40.17 two Sundays ago. Almost 2 bucks cheaper now. Silver at a discount. Think I'll add to the stack real soon, continuing to average in.

Gold was 1600 two Sundays ago. Now 4% higher. Fairly low risk situation now in terms of political fires, timing of the Fed, etc. Averaging in? Probably.

There's always the deflation boogeyman out there. The market could shrink by half, taking gold and silver to those extremes or worse. But sooner or later, hyperinflation will be here, a small bag of potato chips will be $9.95 and a new currency will replace the US dollar. We won't be able to claim ignorance then.

Boy, that was some debt ceiling rally

10:04 am (Hawaii) Again, I will remind all that Scott Blier got it right, forecasting a "sell the news" downturn on the debt ceiling compromise. There were times when the market moved up on bad news, but this past week, it has absorbed a lousy debt ceiling deal and an unending litany of declining numbers in the US economy. Today's 512-point plunge in the Dow (-4.3%) is exceeded only by the Nasdaq (-136, -5.1%) and S&P (-60, -4.8%).

It was Cortez, the contrarian, who declared yesterday that he went long the S&P. He could right. Just off by a day or a week. The Dow has been down eight of the last nine sessions. The weight and breadth today may be, finally, the capitulation it needs to soak in all of the bullshit of Capitol Hill legislation, Eurozone austerity* and real price for real stocks. I suppose that could also mean that gold is a real go-to safe haven, down fractionally today, and that silver is still a trading tool despite far less speculation and volatility in recent months.

Silver traded down as low as 38.10, and is now at 38.62 after hours (-7.4%). Whatever I think of the powers that be, the spot price is stuck in this range, unable to stay above 42, and I'm waiting for a chance to get more physical at 35. If the onslaught continues overnight and tomorrow morning, 32 might be in play very soon. However, a catastrophe scenario in silver is unlikely in my book. There's too much demand in gold globally with the US Dollar stinking up banks near and far. Silver will always tag along sooner or later, so I don't see silver below 32 anytime soon.

If this turns out to be the one-day beatdown to precious metals that was necessary after the recent runup, fine. Silver had run from 34 to 42, so consolidation here above 38 is not a bad thing at all. Gold had run from 1600 two Sundays ago to 1683 today, a 5% gain in just 11 days. In gold! Astounding. I still like 1625 as a bargain price.

Though my small positions in DGP, XG and GSVC were beaten to a pulp today, I didn't sell. It's too late to sell, and I've got enough dry powder to load up if and when the momentum shifts. Whatever happens in Euro land is going to happen. If it's austerity, the pain will be immediate, but recovery will come sooner. If it's more "kicking the can down the road," the pain multiplies at a later date.

On the bright side . . .

• I'm glad I didn't buy more physical yesterday. A pullback was due, whether by natural market price discovery or puppet mastery from the CME mafia.

• I'm content with this small allotment of exposure to miners (XG). I was overconfident when I bought in above 14, knowing full well that miners are underowned by hedge funds, and that they suffer severe knockdowns that parallel the market more than gold and silver.

• I'm okay with not buying anything today. FAZ kept rising, pausing, rising, pausing and I never got a good feel for what was next. It's not easy trying to buy in when something is up 8%, then 10%, then 12%, then 14 freaking percent. Same with ZSL, though I feel far more jittery about holding ZSL for any period longer than an hour than FAZ. The CME mafia could back off overnight, let Asia take control, and silver could be back over 40 within hours or minutes.

At least with FAZ, we know banks from California to Athens are screwed and the worst screwing is yet to come when real estate brings its second wave of disaster.

Down the road, it's the real estate bubble in China that concerns me, but that's quite some time away. The Chinese are adept at manipulating growth, doing things that would be unheard of in the US.

It was interesting to see profit-taking in ZSL, FAZ and other hot movers today. Always in the final hour, more so in the final 20 minutes. But buyers kept scooping up shares at day-high prices. Even VXX was up nearly 5% today after taking a breather yesterday when traders took big profits home.

All in all, it's always best to be ahead of the curve, not chasing the crowd. So I hesitate to add more ZSL or FAZ at this point. (DUST, the 2x gold miner bear ETF, is tempting, but could bounce hard any day.) Anything up more than 14% will need a pit stop, rest time and fuel. This might be a good time to step away from the market and dig around for some physical, just a small amount to average in. After all, ugly as today was, tomorrow could just be the start of a new run. Every central bank loves a big discount on shiny metals.

Yeeeeeah ... man!

9:03 pm (Hawaii) One of the cooler things about learning the market in precious metals is that it's not just the territory of the puppetmasters behind the big banks and the Fed. Regular people understand it — not all, but some — extremely well. In fact, I venture to say that there are a few who have mastered the nuances of reading the market, the economic climate and the yo-yo manipulation of the puppetmasters so well that they bank major coin every time there's a shift in momentum.

One of those people is streetmoney21, a guru (my opinion) of the metals market. He's so good, part of me — the crazy, conspiracy-leaning side — wonders if he's actually an "agent" of the Fed or Treasury, dressing up like a regular dude to inform the masses. Now, if he was a shill, I don't think it necessarily means he is out to hurt anyone. In fact, maybe he's a paid "agent" working to help the masses — those of us who would hear him out — get on board and get off board at the appropriate times. After all, streetmoney21 got out of silver close to the top in early May. Just recently, he got back in. He's not the only trader who's done this, of course, but I'm guessing a lot of us regular peons can relate to him far easier than we would a guy in a suit and tie working out of a New York office.

In his vlog today, SM21 noted that he hesitated to get back in at 32 or 35, and that he went against his own rule: if and when a hunch is supported by strong evidence, scale in. I've done that with physical purchases, though not to the extent I should have. I did an okay job of scaling in when silver dipped to 34 and 35. Buying more with silver at 40 10 days ago was the most I've ever paid at. But I hesitated to scale in some more this past Sunday with price still at 40, and I hope I haven't missed the boat.

Gold is due for some consolidation. I'm hoping for 1625, but 1650 is probably where I'll look to scale in a bit more. Silver should rip through 42 en route to 45 with some sideways action, but I won't be shocked to see both metals get derailed by the CME mafia in the near term. That, to me, will just be a buying opportunity. Whatever we may think about the new exchanges in China, this much is certain: both gold and silver have risen significantly since they both began operation.

Coincidence? Maybe. But the price don't lie. I'm still interested in playing AGQ if it pulls back at some point. As I posted yesterday, a move from 220 to the all-time high of 382 would be a 72% rise, exceeding the percentage of a move in silver from 40 to 50 (all-time high) ... a 25% move. This time, I have to think AGQ from 220 to 382 — if it happens — would send spot silver well beyond 50. Why? The speculators are limited. Margin hikes took their impact down in a big way, and the new buyers are mostly (my guess) in this for the long haul. But if I'm weighing a 72% gain versus a 25% gain, I'm taking the 72%, then buying physical at 50 or even 55.

I'm all for great deals and super discount prices, but the math doesn't lie. With AGQ at 230 at today's afterhours close, it may be too late to get a 220 entry point. Again, I'm leaning toward scaling in ... probably after some consolidation the rest of this week. Volume will tell the story. There were some viciously massive moves today, practically in 2-dollar increments as AGQ moved up to 226, 228, 230 and higher. Those weren't peons like me. Those were hedge funds and maybe big money from overseas.

I'll be looking to hop on board with some declines, if we get some tomorrow and Friday. I won't lie; a drop to 35 would suit me just fine. But with gold powering higher (central banks, no question, plus increased retail buying), silver can't lag too far behind. It's a Catch-22 for us cheapskate buyers. Central banks push gold higher, silver goes with it, and those bankers are not about to sell their metal, not with the dollar headed down the toilet thanks to our mercenary leaders on Capitol Hill.

The key is to set some solid levels for entry and stick to them regardless of macro issues. So I'm looking for gold at 1650 and 1625. I'm looking for silver at 40 and 35. If they don't drop, I'm okay with scaling in here.

After all, 1800 gold and 45 silver are not that far off. As long as QE3 is on the horizon, I'll play AGQ, ZSL and DGP at select junctures. It's ready-set-wait time, finger on the trigger.

Just a coincidence

Kim Yu-Na

10:39 pm (Hawaii) On Apr 29, spot gold made an all-time high at $1,565, breaking out after roughly three months of consolidation. Gold bears got their game on quickly and brought spot down to $1,473 by May 5, a drop of $92.

Fast-forward to July 12, and spot price rises to a new all-time high, then continues on. By Aug 2, spot gold is at $1,658, which is $93 above the previous high. So what does this mean? Maybe spot gold consolidates here between $1,565 and $1,658. Or maybe fundamentals are too different now compared to those in April, May and June. For goodness sakes, South Korea and Thailand are revving up their engines and buying up gold.

My hunch, based on all the mainstream media stories about gold's rise and the boost from central banks, is that regular peon folks (not just me and you) are going to attack gold like never before. It will feel like too many people understand the value of gold, if not the fundamentals behind real money and fiat currency. When that feeling strikes, maybe it's time to recognize that gold (and silver) are in a bubble that's about to burst. However, I don't think it will be that time just yet. People are aware, they're selling their scrap gold jewelry, etc for d0llars, but they aren't investing in bullion as a store of value en masse yet. Not even close.

Time is ticking away and the window of opportunity to secure physical metal at decent prices is closing soon. I'm not chasing tonight or tomorrow morning. I'll be patient, wait for a pullback and get more physical. Maybe I'll have a little extra fiat to buy with after trading paper silver and gold tomorrow. Or not. Getting into DGP has been wise, waiting for a move higher rather than flitting in and out like I have with AGQ recently. But if there is a pullback sooner rather than later, I'm fully prepared to add more ounces.

Odds that Comex raises margin requirements on gold are getting higher by the hour. Spot gold is at $1,668, off its earlier high of $1,674. Spot silver is at 41.00, off its earlier high of 41.51. No chasing. Just patience and watching for dips.