Terrible Tuesday

Dow Jones 9,870.30 -268.30 -2.65%
NASDAQ 2,135.18 -85.47 -3.85%
S&P 500 1,041.24 -33.33 -3.1%

Did you get bitten today? Did you stay long in this flaky market without protection? Do you walk the streets and let thugs take your hard-earned money? I've been 100% cash for nearly three weeks, but if I were ever to go long, I'd definitely hedge my bets — be honest, everything in the market is a calculated guess — with VXX or FAZ and maybe have some safer plays like GLD and TLT.

TECH KINGS
Apple has its share of complaints over iPhone 4, but they continue to sell, sell, sell what may be the most addictive piece of technology on the planet. Shares, though, bit the dust today, down 4.52% to 256.17. This is an entry price I could love, but even here I want to wait for 250. I'd rather catch this ride on the way up than possibly on the way further down.

So, all the Android devotees who happen to be iPhone haters should be loving Google, but shares dropped 3.77% to 454.26. I like this price, too, but I'm watching from afar.

BIDU fell 9.23% to 67.57 as China did a swan dive. Still the search king of China with the backing of Big Brother. Sub 60 would be compelling.

NFLX closed down 4.28% to 112.58. The swings here are wild and I don't like it long term against the competition that is pounding down the door, like Apple. On that note, IMAX dipped as low as 14.28 before ending the day at 14.88 (-4.43%). Like Netflix, Imax has serious competition coming sooner rather than later.

EURO ZONE
FCX was down only 0.63% (121.56), but craziness across the region (Greek riots, German leadership issue, Spanish unemployment, yadayada) did nothing good for global markets. NBG was flat at 2.23. No banks were burned down. However, IRE dropped 6.91% (3.37).

SAFE PLAYS
GLD closed barely up (121.27 +0.15%) while TLT (20-year Treasury Bond) was up 1.09% to 101.07. TLT has a chance to stay above 100 for awhile. There's no real catalyst coming to the market for the bulls in the visible future.

ENERGY
USO (US Oil Fund ETF) dropped 2.95% to 34.17. BP went the other way, gaining 2.29% to 27.75. Not touching that POS.

Natural gas wilted. UNG caved 3.88% to 7.67. My list of 40 natty gassers got smoked again, dropping 5.27% today. They dipped into the red as a group for the first time since Obama's clean energy speech nearly four weeks ago. That's bad news on bad news. WPRT, which was once the leader with a 30% gain, is now up just 4.83%. PETD still has a sizable gain of 25.83%, but almost everything else is in the red or has a modest single-digit gain. No catalyst, no luck.

First Solar (FLSR) also fell, losing 4.03% to 114.42. One of last week's hotties, Trina Solar (TSL), dripped 5.06% to 17.26.

Chinese energy ate dust today. PetroChina (110.51 -3.45%) and CNOOC (168.80 -4.44%) sank. Whimsical solar play Yingli Green Energy (YGE) lowered to 9.88 (5.64%).

CHINA & HEAVY METAL
FXI tumbled 4.03% to 39.31. Freeport-McMoran (FCX) crumbled 5.55% to 61.07. US Steel (X) gave back 5.87% tp 39.11 and Posco (PKX) gave up 6.22% to 94.84.

PROTECTION
VXX finished with a 9.26% gain to 30.79 after hitting a high of 31.34 in the final hour. Shares were below 25 last week.

FAZ moved big, 10.48% to 16.82. I've had good trades in FAZ before, but haven't touched it in months. Finnies are now just a wee bit too fucking crazy for me to decipher most times.

Staying in 100% cash while insanity prevails on Wall Street. Have fun!

Mumbles Monday

Dow Jones 10.138.52 -5.29 -0.05%
NASDAQ 2,220.65 -2.83 -0.13%
S&P 500 1,074.57 -2.19 -0.20%

It was an almost perfect correlation, parallel, whatever ... I crashed out at 3 am Hawaii time. Market opened at 3:30. I got up at 9:15 am, 45 minutes before the close. Two months ago, I was up most nights and stayed up through the session. Now, I just enough a great night's rest. Humidity and heat, I can deal with. Rather have 80 degrees and wake up where I am than anywhere else in the world. I don't need to imagine the price and value of that.

As for the market, it's a pile of crap, which is not unusual for this time of year. This week, with Q2 ending on Wednesday, could've been a crazed buying spree by fund managers for window dressing purposes. Instead, it seems even the robots have left the office, packed up the robot wife and robot kids and headed to vacation nirvana.

TECH KINGS
AAPL gained 0.60% to 268.30, off its high on news that 1.7 million iPhone 4s sold over the weekend. That's not including the units that would've been sold if Apple had more in stock. AAPL is trading at the same level now — with all the news about iPads and the new iPhone — that it did on the blockbuster earnings report just 3 months ago. 265-270 was the old high. Now it's the old low.

I want shares at 260 or lower. Won't happen now unless the global market collapses, and that's a real possibility.

BIDU dropped 2.18% to 74.44 and GOOG lost 0.18% to 472.08.

CHINA & HEAVY METAL
FXI lost 0.53% to 40.96 as metals melted down. FCX slipped 2.87% (64.66) and US Steel (X) dropped 3.91% to 41.55. My guess: fund managers took their recent profits, locked them in for Q2 and got ready for vacation.

Recent high flyer PKX gave back 2.3% and fell to 101.13. Not a good start to the week for steelers.

EURO ZONE
FXE declined 0.90% to 122.33 while UUP (US Dollar) gained 0.52% to 24.96. That's a combo that usually spells losses in the US stock market.

FINANCIALS
GS (136.69 -2.15%) pulled back while C (4.00 +1.52%) gained. Banco Santander was flat (11.01 -0.36%). IRE dropped 2.16% to 3.62. For entertainment purposes, NBG lost 0.89% to 2.23. It's awfully hard to feel bullish about a bank in a nation like Greece, where people feel entitled to work 2.2 hours a week and retire from "toxic" jobs like hairdressing at the hearty age of 23 years old. (I kid and exaggerate.)

Maybe when NBG shares dip below 1.50 I'll grab a few.

US ENERGY
USO (US Oil Fund ETF) lost 1.26% to 35.21 while SCO (UltraShort Crude Oil) gained 2.42% (14.19).

A decline in oil gave the natural gas sector reason to resume selling. Just three of my Nat Gas 40 gained today, including CLNE. As a group, they lost 2.08% today. Since Obama's clean-energy speech four weeks ago, the 40 are up only 2.63% now. Former leader WPRT is up 12.32%, but that's a far cry from its 30% gain just two weeks ago.

No catalyst in sight for this industry.

Solar was relatively flat. First Solar (FSLR) was down 0.03% to 119.23. Trina Solar (TSL), a hot mover last week, lost 0.82% and fell to 18.18.

CHINA ENERGY
PetroChina (114.46 -0.56%) and CNOOC (176.64 +0.80%) are interesting in this sense: it is CNOOC (CEO) that has been active because it's in acquisitive mode. Opportunism, i.e. grabbing any piece of BP it can get, has gained the sector's attention.

Solar play Yingli Green Energy lost 1.97% (10.47).

SAFE PLAYS
GLD (121.09 -1.36%) and TLT (99.98 +0.94) went in opposite directions today. TLT (20-year Treasury Bonds) has based here (95-100) since mid-May. Longer the base, bigger the pop. Or drop.

SLV (18.38 -1.55%) gave back some of its recent gains.

HEDGES

VXX collected 1.66% to 28.18. The big move came at 10 am Eastern, and it sold off on news from Capitol Hill regarding the possible failure of the financial reform bill. But VXX still finished with a gain. Bulls on pins and needles. 

FAZ gained 2.85% to 15.23. Holding these two overnight is hazardous.

I've been 100% cash for a few weeks and I'm content to admire the fluidity and success of geniuses of Le Fly and StockGuy22. 

Frazzled Friday

Dow Jones 10,143.81 -8.99 -0.09%
NASDAQ 2,223.48 +3.07 +0.29%
S&P 500 1,076.76 +3.07 +0.29%

Reform is good, but it is no cure and it clearly isn't the catalyst in itself. Today's session was in the green most of the way, but sold off toward the close and essentially closed flat. Sectors that benefited from today's final financial reform bill work on Capitol Hill were (of course) financials and, you guessed it, Chinese energy.

FINANCIALS
Goldman Sachs gained 4.68% to 139.66, capping a nice move from 133 earlier in the week. The intraday high was 140.90. Citigroup closed at 3.94 (+4.23%) after a spooky descent the past few days.

Big winners were buyers of FAS (22.80 +7.17%).

EURO ZONE
FXE traded up (123.44 +0.47%) while the US Dollar (UUP) lost 0.56% (24.83).

Euro banks benefited from the finreg bill. Banco Santander, like their successful national team, finished up (11.05 +1.66%). IRE (3.70 +1.93%) also rose, though NBG fell (2.25 -1.32%).

CHINA ENERGY
With BP selling off chunks of fine, moneymaking operations, entities like CNOOC (CEO) are swooping in. CEO gained 1.93% to 175.24 while PetroChina (PTR) moved up 0.50% to 115.10.

Chinese solar plays are hot again, probably new festering ground for traders who banked big gains in US natural gas stocks the past few weeks. Trina Solar (TSL) had a big bump of 4.09% to 18.33 after landing a deal with the University of Queensland (Australia).

Yingli Green Energy (YGE) gained 3.89% to 10.68, riding the sector's momentum.

US ENERGY
The rise of crude oil to $78/barrel is helping solar plays back in the US. First Solar (FSLR) picked up 2.04% to 119.26. Solar is still "expensive" in the sense that it can't survive without federal subsidies for the most part. Solar will climb as crude prices rise. As usual.

Nat Gas had its best day in about a week, reviving in a big way. My list of 40 natty gassers gained a cumulative 2.12%. NGS was the biggest gainer (+7.65% to 16.74) and HERO (2.80 +5.66%) was second.

Two of my favorites, WPRT (16.70 +1.83%) and CLNE (15.97 +3.9%) did fine. So did another play I like, HGT (20.59 +3.05%).

The natty gasser with the biggest gain since Obama's speech is PETD (26.99 +29.57%).

As for oil, BP resumed its tumultuous descent, losing 5.98% to 26.92. Again, the sector traded well, having pruned BP from its collective sentiment. US Oil Fund (ETF) gained 3.69% to 35.66.

SAFE PLAYS
GLD gained 1.2% to 122.90 and TLT was slightly up (99.05 +0.41%).

CHINA & HEAVY METAL
FXI gained 1.01% to 41.18. Copper did well; FCX rocketed 4.93% to 66.57. US Steel rose 2.83% to 43.24. Metals have been so productive lately that the relative volatility shouldn't have scared me away.

TECH KINGS
Hibernation time for AAPL longs. Shares sold off again, as expected, losing 0.86% to 266.70. I'm waiting for a chance to snare shares at 260 or maybe 250.

GOOG lost 0.51% to 472.68. Another buying opportunity may be nearing, though I'm not in a rush. Even with AdMob and Android, GOOG is not as appealing to me as AAPL.

BIDU gained 3.12% to 76.10, arguably the best mover in the sector. They have no real competition in China. Big Brother is on its side. Baidu will not be beaten.

All in all, still 100% cash and no plans to change as the weekend begins. Just a few more days before Q2 ends, so window dressing may be in store as fund managers trample over each other to establish positions. Or not. If the market has another crash soon, I'll be ready.

Energy is future currency?

If you believe Mark Fisher, paper money will have less value and energy will be the trade.

See the video here.

Turnover Thursday

Dow Jones 10,152.80 -145.64 -1.41%
NASDAQ 2,217.42 -36.81 -1.63%
S&P 500 1,073.69 -18.35 -1.68%

Regulations, schmegulations. There's no doubt that without turmoil from Capitol Hill, the Eurozone, the Gulf and iPhone 4 buyers planetwide, the market would be just fine and dandy. (RIMM is collapsing after hours due to a so-so earnings report.)

The pullback was expected from a technical perspective. Is a further drop coming? With Q2 coming to a lose in less than a week, I'm not so sure fund managers will stay completely out. If they get scared and refuse to dip their toes back into the oil-infested waters, that'll be a surprise to some extent.

I'll still wait for selling pressure in AAPL to wane before I walk into that territory. To the brave who grabbed VXX shares below 25 and 26 recently, bravo. When AAPL draws down, VXX pops 99% of the time.

Overall, though, the market was simply red.

TECH KINGS
AAPL wavered between 269 and 272 on the day of its iPhone 4 release. Shares closed at 269.69, down 0.73%, or 10 bucks less than its all-time high last week. Signal issues with the new phone could sit on AAPL for a few days, which makes it a buying opportunity, maybe. I'd rather just wait.

GOOG petered out and lost 1.44% to 475.10. Entry point is looking better all the time now. I might just wait for the first report of mobile ad sales before I test Google waters.

BIDU lost 3.14% to 73.80 after beating down bears for several days.

FINANCIALS
GS (134.98 -0.07%) and C (3.78 -2.83%) facing issues thanks to legislators. I haven't liked finnies for months precisely because of this kind of uphill battle. Fuck it. Too much work, too much pain involved. Unless GS hits 100 and C swoons to 3.00. Then I won't resist.

EURO ZONE
FXE up 0.14% (122.86), which normally is good for the US market. UUP (US dollar) was flat at 28.35.

Euro banks fell in spectacular fashion. Banco Santander (STD) dropped 3.81% to 10.87, IRE got squashed (3.63 -8.1%) and NBG (2.28 -3.8%) took a blow to the scrotum. I like STD below 9. Could happen. STD was below 9 less than two weeks ago.

SAFE PLAYS
Predictably, GLD (121.30 +0.29%) was up in a down market. So was SLV (18.26 +0.44). TLT, surprisingly, fell 0.59% to 98.65. But TLT had been hot lately, so it's not a shock.

ENERGY
US Oil (USO) gained 0.44% to 34.39 despite BP's plummet. BP gave back 3.14% to a new low of 28.74.

Nat Gas continued to fart incessantly. Only two of the 40 on my list closed positive today, though FTK had a nice 5.26% gain. As crude oil prices gain with greater demand, natural gas needs a definitive catalyst from the White House, something more than oral salutations from President Obama. Otherwise, nat gas is looking dead.

WPRT, once the beacon of the post-Obama clean-energy speech explosion, lost big again. Shares tumbled 3.81% to 16.40, and now WPRT is up only 11.64% since Obama's speech. WPRT had been up more than 30% at one point.

There are arguments to every sector of alternative energy. Wind has opponents because turbines kill thousands of birds. Solar has issues because of cost and the way certain endangered bugs (I'm not kidding) are instinctively attracted to panels and essentially fly until dead. The reasons are innumerable, surely "discovered" by pro-oil interests as well as well-meaning environmentalists.

Come on, people. We've got to do more than bitch and moan. Solutions?

HEDGES
VXX rocketed 6.14% to 28.35 and FAZ leaped 6.11% to 15.97. They're both explosive and both good ways to protect against losses if you're long the market, whether it's AAPL or financials.

Or you could just sit out and watch the circus from the bleachers like I have. Still 100% cash.

Wax Off Wednesday

Dow Jones 10,298.44 +4.92 +0.05%

NASDAQ 2,254.23 -7.57 -0.33%

S&P 500 1,092.04 -3.27 -0.30%

Nothing like wiping the slate no matter what the baggage or overload may have been. Lessons are much better learned by remembering what was fundamentally wrong, no doubt, but letting go and starting over are mandatory. Every sports fan has a last-to-first story to remember.

With today's drastic statistics in housing data, plus a market that was overbought, a decline is unavoidable in the market. AAPL is not the only barometer, but it's true that when it can't hold gains after a nice run, it's likely to drop and/or consolidate again. We've seen AAPL trade between 231 and 279 in the past month or two, and for a moment or two last week, it appeared AAPL was ready to break out in spectacular fashion. But even the news of 3 million iPads sold couldn't push AAPL higher and shares closed down today at 270. For traders, a ride from 273 down to 267 to 274 was plenty of opportunity today. For investors, a pause to recalibrate and consider new strategy.

I don't know for sure, but if you bought at the two-year bottom and held, it's got to be tough changing the plan after riding AAPL from 78 to 279.

Another puzzler is GLDD, which was poised to build barriers off the shores of Gulf states, only to see the Fed pull the plug on that plan. According to this report, concerns about endangered areas will require sand berms to move further out to sea by two miles. How much this affects GLDD, I don't know. Shares finished up 0.33% to 6.14. Still bears watching, no pun intended.

FINANCIALS
Banco Santander gained a few pesos (0.44%) to 11.30 and continued upward in afterhours trading (11.42). IRE gained 1.8% to 3.95, but most finnies were down. GS was up 0.21% (135.07), but C (3.89 -1.27%) and NBG 2.37 (-1.66%) struggled.

There's a lot to like about STD, but it's been a significant gain since it traded below 9 three weeks ago.

CHINA & HEAVY METAL
FXI gained 0.76% to 41.26, though FCX (65.06 -0.20%) traded lower. US Steel (X) gained 1.08% (44.06) and BIDU finished higher (76.19 +0.67%).

Between rising labor costs and Big Brother's iron fist, this is an amazing spectacle. Workers in the People's Republic are more informed than ever. They understand China's status in the economic universe. They want a piece of the pie and they'll get some of it as wages increase across the Middle Kingdom gradually.

Posco (PKX) of South Korea gained 2.77% to 105.14, following X's lead. Or vice-versa.

EURO
FXE gained a fraction (0.25%) to 122.69. The US dollar (UUP) dropped 0.40% to 24.97.

SAFE PLAYS
GLD lost 0.41% to 120.95 and SLV dropped 1.3% to 18.18. TLT gained 0.68% to 99.24.

ENERGY
SCO (inverse oil ETN) picked up 4.95% to 15.06 as US Oil Fund (USO) gave up 2.17% to 35.24. BP, really, doesn't trade like the rest of the sector anymore. It trades like an outcasted entity drifting in space. Shares dropped just one penny to 29.67 after sitting above 30 earlier in the day.

Only eight of my Nat Gas 40 managed gains today. DPTR, a penny stock, picked up 3.09% to 1.00. KOG rose 2.05% to 3.48. The group as a whole lost 1% and is now up just 4.85% since Obama's clean energy speech nearly three weeks ago.

PETD, which was up today 1.2%, is the overall leader with a 25.2% gain. Former leader WPRT is up just 16.07% following a massive selloff the past few sessions. Westport was up more than 30% at one time.

The initial rally, post-Obama, was tremendous, and his follow-up comments early last week helped, but the sector needed something substantial, something with legs to stand on. That catalyst has not happened and shares have sold off to no surprise. Compounding the risk was Pennsylvania's legislative call to ban natural gas production in wake of some recent disasters.

Still, this could be the beginning of a new opportunity to enter clean energy, but I suspect the market is ready to balance out. I'll wait for WPRT to pull back to 16 before I consider a small position.

ETN SAFETY
VXX dipped below 25 last week, and the candlestick analysis (American Bulls) called for a buy (25.48). Very solid perspective; VXX has been strong after falling to these levels in recent months. Shares closed at 26.71 after an intraday high of 27.74. Shares ran up again in afterhours trading to 26.92, but I'm skeptical of that price holding overnight. Often, VXX readjusts before morning trading and can be bought cheaper.

Nice gainers among ETNs include DTO (75.33 +4.85%), DUG (65.55 +2.01%) and TYP (8.21 +1.23%).

Tepid Tuesday

Dow Jones 10,293.52 -148.89 -1.43%
NASDAQ 2,261.80 -27.29 -1.19%
S&P 500 1,095.31 -17.89 -1.61%

I'll say it again: this is a market that can have traders sprinting on those mouse wheels like a treadmill all morning and afternoon. It can also be an opportunity to shut the computer down, take a ride and enjoy some sunshine and pristine waters at the local beach. In my case, there are many choices. An hour just chilling in the water under a hot Hawaiian sun and some cool trade winds was the perfect tonic for my day.

I missed AAPL's rebound today as the news of 3 million iPads sold carried over. But I didn't miss another early gain and later decline. Volume is so light at this time of year and my time off is so limited, there are simple choices for those of us in the middle of the Pacific during the hours of 2 am to 2 pm.

1. Sleep, hit the beach, relax.
2. Sleep, wake up every few hours, check the market, back to sleep.
3. Watch every tick for 12 hours straight.

I prefer 1 and 2 for the rest of this month. I'll be on the lookout for AAPL shares below 260, maybe 250. The last two lows were 231 and 242. Expecting another low below 250 would be expecting a bit too much, I believe. But AAPL has proven that it will consolidate for months before exploding again, and we're in the midst of that now, possibly.

Fund managers don't want to be out of AAPL as Q2 closes at the end of this month. But they'll be more than happy to shake out weak hands and grab all they can below 260 or 250. So I wait.

TECH KINGS
AAPL gained 1.36% to 273.85. It's a dangerous scenario, potentially. There are traders who want their small gains on a daily basis. There are longs who wisely have held since 78 last year (March 2009). If the global economy tanks, everyone gets washed out to sea without mercy. Caution advised.

GOOG fell just a bit (-0.47%) to 486.96. Is this the opportunity to jump in before the Google train leaves the station? Or is a ledge below the cliff, and there's nowhere to go but down? I don't know. I'm asking you.

CHINA & HEAVY METAL
BIDU couldn't buck the trend for a second day in a row and lost 0.89% to 75.68. The FXI lost 1.56% to 40.95, giving back a small portion of recent gains. FCX lost 4.25% to 65.19 and US Steel (X) dropped 3.07% to 43.59.

It's a short-term trader's paradise.

EURO
The FXE lost just 0.33% (122.38) while the US dollar (UUP) was up 0.16% to 25.07.

FINANCIALS
Stateside, Goldman Sachs lost 2.14% to 134.79 and C dropped 1.99% to 3.94. Abroad, Santander (STD) lost 1.83% to 11.25, IRE got smacked (3.88 -7.18%) and NBG slipped 2.03% to 2.41.

FAZ fed off the selloff and gained 4.92% to 14.92.

ENERGY
If all of this felt vaguely bearish or even bullish in your optimistic view, try this: All 40 of the stocks on my Nat Gas list finished in the red today, a first since Obama's clean energy speech 19 days ago. Red, red, red. There's just sorta exception in VNR, which broke even for the day.

If the Nat Gas sector, which has an edge over most, can't get positive, it might be a setback for the broader market. Sure, Gulf drillers may have gotten a reprieve today, but for how long? Does the State of Louisiana really think it can win against the President? Do we really need for all drillers to go back to work in the Gulf? There has to be a reasonable compromise that can keep workers employed without risking one or two more preposterous catastrophes.

USO (United States Oil Fund ETF) finished down 0.93% even with the Louisiana challenge. Meanwhile, the ultra-short oil ETF, SCO, gained 1.7% to 14.35, oddly enough.

SAFETY
VXX gained again, this time 1.01% to 26.49 and making those who entered below 25 geniuses.

FAZ was far from the only inverse ETN to gain nicely today. DRV (Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3x) gained 9.74% to 6.87.

TZA (Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3x) ran up 6.29% to 6.97.

GLD reversed recent downward momentum and gained 0.88% to close at 121.45. TLT gained 1.19% to 98.57.

All in all, some interesting viewing from the bleachers. It might not be the worst time to pair AAPL and VXX, since there's no guarantee whatsoever of direction for either. But I'm not interested in that kind of excitement for now.

Flatulent Friday: Are we toppy now?

Dow Jones 10,450.64 +16.47 +0.16%
NASDAQ 2,309.80 +2.64 +0.11%
S&P 500 1,117.51 +1.47 +0.13%

Between quad witching and the overwhelming emotional baggage of 1) BP's Gulf oil disaster, 2) Euro percolation, 3) renewed fears of US housing/jobs/financials fuck ups, 4) China inflation, 5) North Korean shitstinkery and more, the market simply seemed exhausted by today. What little buying there was surely was limited to a minority of issues like AAPL, which closed at an all-time high of 274.07 on 30 million shares traded — roughly 25% more volume than usual.

While there wasn't a whole lot of buying pressure, there was even less selling pressure. There are all kinds of reasons for this, but the main one is simple: With $27 billion outflowing from the market so far this year, it's all been reduced to trading desks, high-frequency trading machines and day traders. No blame to go around from this little tower. We wanted to eat the forbidden fruit of market capitalism, and the food chain developed instantly. Whether it's algorithms or the invention of the wheel, whoever capitalizes on new technology will usually win while the remaining masses howl with fever over disadvantage and conspiracy.

I could easily complain, but I'd rather just get a good night's sleep, wake up at a nice hour like 6 or 8 am Hawaii time, and observe. So I missed a chance to re-enter my beloved AAPL. So what. I'll get another chance sooner rather than later. AAPL run-ups are often met with ridiculously steep sell-offs, or simply continue running, especially after a few weeks of consolidation. It won't bother me to ride AAPL from 280 to 300 at all. If I can get in at 250 next week, better yet.

But this is the world we live in, when a single currency has markets fretting, and Earth's greatest tech retailer ever can be practically felled in one swoop (from 200 to 78 not so long ago) because of a housing/financial crisis.

For the record, the eight stocks I'm watching closely were mostly in the red today.

Up:
• AAPL 274.07 (+0.81%)
• SD 6.86 (+1.78%)

Down:
• CLNE 17.15 (-0.81%)
• CSTR 48.95 (-4.56%)
• GLDD 5.34 (-0.78%)
• TGP 30.03 (-0.07%)
• UNG 8.53 (-2.29%)
• WPRT 18.62 (-2%)

I'm still 100% cash, waiting for the market to settle down (which it has) and provide a clue about direction (which it hasn't).

TECH KINGS

AAPL was at 242 last week Wednesday. This feels like the consolidation months back when shares drifted between 195 and 215 before popping on what became a two-month odyssey that topped out at 272 on that climatic earnings day. Love Apple or not, the iPad and iPhone G4 are ruling the geek universe and the normal world simultaneously.

Next week is a liftoff to 300 or it pulls back to 255, maybe 250. How many stocks keep revving higher in a flat market, seven sessions in a row? I can think of one.

FINANCIALS
GS (137.82 +0.63%) and C (4.01 +1.26%) didn't move as much as their Euro counterparts. I still don't like finnies long term. Too many damned questions.

EURO

FXE was basically flat (123.36 -0.11%) while STD (11.53 +2.31%) lost roughly half of its early gain. Those boys at Banco Santander have balls of steel, calling out the Eurozone (Germany, in particular) by demanding stress tests, then grading out No. 1 in leaked reports. Then STD turns out to be a bullish buyer on both sides of the Atlantic. If Santander were a sports team, I'd be a fan. They take care of their shit.

IRE moved up big, 3.86% to 4.30. NBG lost 1.63% to 2.41, but I have no desire to touch any Greek stocks. Ever.

HEAVY METALS
FCX was flat (65.90 +0.14%) and FXI was equally quiet (40.66 +0.10%). US Steel (X) lost 1.56% to 43.41, ending a very turbulent week with ups and downs. SLV moved up again (18.75 +2.29%).

SAFE PLAYS

GLD up again (122.83 +0.76%) and gets a lot of headlines for all-time highs in the metal, but really ... so what? Sure, it gains quite a bit from a 2- or 3-year perspective, or a 5- or 10-year perspective. It's a hedge against inflation, against dwindling currencies ... and unless you hoard bars of the pretty yellow metal, your paper ownership can be "confiscated" by Uncle Sam in times of dire need.

I like gold/GLD as a small piece of the portfolio, nothing more.

TLT also flat today (97.69 -0.16%).

ENERGY
USO up 0.77% to 35.41. BP had another "boring" day with a 0.16% gain to 31.76. All BP shareholders are hoping for plenty of these quiet days.

My Nat Gas 40, a collection of the first 40 sector plays I found on the day of Obama's clean energy speech (15 days ago), was up 0.02% today. As a whole, the 40 are up 12.19%, staying flat the past few days.

Bronco Drilling (BRNC) had a massive gain of 9.84% to 4.24 today and is now up 21.8% since Obama's talk. PQ (+4%), PETD (+3.15%), NGS (+2.57%), GDP (+2.48%) also had nice moves today. In all, 18 of the 40 were in the green today.

My favorite natty gassers, WPRT (18.62 -2%) and CLNE (17.15 -0.81%) were down. UNG sold off 2.29% to 8.53. It remains a buy below 8.00 and a sell above 8.75. It's one of those notorious plays that traders love and investors hated and still hate due to its incredible lack of strength. At this level, though, it's playing fair. It just trades so freaky compared to the sector so often. It'll gain massively while the entire sector is in the red that day. Then it'll tank as high fliers with tiny floats move up, up, up.

Overall, however, this is probably as stable as the industry has been in the market for some time. All because of BP, and all because of Obama, who reiterated his stance on clean energy earlier in the week. That staved off what would've been inevitable mass selling after several natty gassers hit 20%-plus gains in less than two weeks.

Eventually, though, the sector needs another catalyst. Obama can stoke the fire only so many times. The industry needs some real roots into America's energy grid. Question is when.

Happy Father's Day weekend, everybody. Aloha!

Options madness is over ... is this market finally topping out?

Homework: TGP

Never head of Teekay (TGP) until today, but with crude oil prices continuing to rise (and rocket?) due to dwindling supply brought on by BP's disaster and the moratorium on deepwater drilling, it makes sense that delivering energy is going to become more common. 

From Teekay's profile: "... provides marine transportation services for liquefied natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas, and crude oil." 

Teekay comes with an 8% dividend. 

Teekay LNG Partners LP.

Key Statistics

June 17 (closing): 30.05

Profit margin: 14.83%

Operating margin: 46.55%

Return on Assets: 2.83%

Return on Equity: 5.89%

Revenue: 341.11M

Quarterly Revenue Growth (yoy): 21%

Quarterly Earnings Growth (yoy): 12.5%

Total Cash: 118.56M

Total Debt: 2.38B

Shares Outstanding: 52.34M

Float: 22.73M

% held by Insiders: 10.39%

% held by Institutions: 43.1%

CEO: Peter Evensen, n/a

Candlestick analysis: "Hold" (American Bulls)

Summary: Definite red flags here. Enormous debt compared to rather miniscule revenue. That cash-to-debt ratio is roughly 1:7. Yuck. CEO's salary is a mystery. I hate that shit, too. All this is trumped, of course, if transportation (gas) costs rise and people turn to TGP more than ever. Then the numbers could be record-setting for this company. Factor in the microscopic float and this could be a fast mover up and down. 

TGP 2-month chart (daily) vs. BP

TGP 1-year chart (daily) vs. BP

TGP 3-year chart (weekly) vs. BP

Homework is Good

There have been times I did little homework, then traded. Then I've done a good amount of homework, then did little or no trading, as I did with my Nat Gas numbers two weeks ago. I prefer the latter approach much better.

But I'll do some homework for the next hour or so. Those of you who have stayed out of trading for the past week or two, I'm there with you. Sure, we missed a run, but if you're in Hawaii like I am, we got a lot of good sleep. No complaints there.

This is another step, probably, into my acceptance of swing trading rather than short-term/day trading as a comfortable place to be. Getting up at 2 am for premarket is almost impossible; I've hit the snooze button far too many times and missed key sells. Staying up through the night and all the way into the closing bell is another challenge that I meet with mixed results.

Though I prefer watching the market, every minute of it, my body clock has its own way and the more I fight it, the deeper I crash (physically) when I'm up 40 hours in a row. It is what it is and I'm fine doing more homework than before. It's satisfying, no question.

Same ol' same ol'

6 am on a fine morning in Honolulu. The breeze, the sun, the flow of freeway traffic. It's paradise.

I wake up to find the market petering along at stone-age technological levels. Volume is scant. Again. Politics airing live on TV rarely makes for a fun ride on the Wall Street roller coaster.

>> Banks are sucking wind more than ever as 91 of them fail to make TARP payments, an increase for the third quarter in a row. FAZ, however, is up only 1%.


>> AAPL hits 272, up from 242 just two or three weeks eight days ago. Careful, my fellow Appleholics ... what goes up on thin ice can easily crack through and go way down.

>> BP's stock has gotten a reprieve, having to make payments on that $20 billion fund rather than dole it all out at once. BP is down almost 1% today, which isn't much compared to the 5% or 10% moves down and up in the past week. 

>> Nat Gas is almost entirely in the red, though today marks the two-week anniversary of Obama's clean energy speech. The sector is up big; the 40 natty gassers I follow are up more than 12%, led by WPRT (+29.82%). I missed the run up, but I'm not anxious about entering right here, either. It's not like earnings are going to explode in the immediate future. 

Obama was a catalyst for Nat Gas stock prices. Now we need to see some real action in the fundamentals, in development and growth. Otherwise, oversupply will put a lid on the sector, and it seems that's already happening.

100% cash and getting a full night's rest. I can live with that. 

Photo: Webshots

A whole lotta shakin' for whole lotta nothin'

Dow Jones 10,409.46 +4.69 +0.05%
NASDAQ 2,305.93 +0.05 +0.00%
S&P 500 1,114.61 -0.62 -0.06%

I never did get to bed. Napped at the desk and stayed out of this kooky market. Hard to see how or why AAPL has moved so much the past few sessions, but maybe ... well, more on that later.

Not a whole lot to say about today. Most stocks swayed and swirled, but not in a way that got anyone nauseous. Maybe everybody was watching Congress grill BP's Tony Hayward. Or smart traders are enjoying summer vacation.

EURO
FXE was up for much of the session before closing at 122.64 (-0.35%) while UUP (25.10, +0.32%) is slightly up. The Spaniards upped the ante on the Germans, but it was Spain that buckled. EWP (Spain ETF) fell 1.12% to 35.33 and STD dropped 1.79% to 10.99.

FINANCIALS
GS barely finished higher (137.13 +0.17%) while C dropped 0.13% to 3.98. IRE (4.18 -3.02%) and NBG (2.47 -1.59%) pulled back from recent gains. I'm apathetic about this sector. Up, down, up, down ... sometimes because of news. Sometimes because of nothing. It's stupid so I steer clear.

TECH KINGS
AAPL zoomed 2.92% to 267.28, a gain of more than 7 bucks on decent volume. Is there really a difference in Apple since two or three weeks one week ago, when AAPL hovered at 242? Not really. Sure, iPhone G4 demand is huge, but is that really a surprise? Could be that hedge funds and mutuals are piling back in before Q2 ends at the end of this month. That's two weeks away! I'm staying out and waiting for yet another pullback.

GOOG closed up just a hair to 501.34. Much as I like the future for Google, 500 is definitely a psychological barrier. I still prefer GOOG below 490, but I'll buy AAPL before GOOG.

NFLX rose again, nearly 1% to 124.67. CSTR gave up practically all its early gain and closed at 52.51, just .02% higher. The news about the new-release deal with Paramount pushed CSTR shares up to 54.76, but this week's rally turned buyers into sellers by this afternoon. I like CSTR for the time being as a short-term trade. Might get in below 50. Or not.

SAFE PLAYS
GLD closed down a skosh at 120.33, TLT was up a hair to 97.06 ... I hesitate to call copper king FCX a safe play given China's cautious approach to growth. FCX was down just a tiny bit to 67.03 and US Steel (X) dropped 1.31% to 45.33.

ENERGY
BP gained after its chairman and CEO met with Obama. BP closed at 31.85 (+1.43%) on the news that it will suspend its dividend payout and set up a $20 billion fund for Gulf businesses destroyed by the oil "volcano."

The oil sector was up slightly, but it has traded quite well in spite of BP. The inverse ETN for oil, SCO, dropped nearly 2%.

Natural gas started horribly, rallied, and folded by the close. Only 12 of my Nat Gas 40 finished positive today, not too bad considering the rampage the sector had been running since Obama's clean energy speech nearly two weeks ago. MMR finished up 3.75% to 12.44 after leading the group most of the day. KOG, REXX and FTK were also top gainers. Two of my favorites, CLNE and WPRT, finished in the red. CLNE dropped 3.49% to 17.54 and WPRT fell 1.13% to 19.19.

I like WPRT below 19 and had my chance in the morning, but the market was underwater at the time and I decided to play it safe. I like WPRT's balance sheet a lot. Don't really like CLNE's numbers, but as a clean energy play, CLNE is almost as intriguing as WPRT. I'm sure value investors might agree partway on WPRT, probably more so when it was trading at 3 bucks in March of last year. At these levels, it's still reasonably attractive, but I'll be choosy about my price. Haggling is good.

Nat Gas is one of the best sectors to trade and/or follow now that it has an edge of sorts (Obama's verbal backing and nothing more yet) and the world is sick and tired of crude oil's consequences. Whether Nat Gas as a sector is more of a market indicator now than it was last month, well, I wouldn't assume that. I do feel that it truly does give a fingerprint on the market's tone. Natty Gas is a fairly safe play even in the midst of speculation, oversupply and the emotional content of the broad market, i.e. Mother Earth bleeding into the Gulf 24/7.

Even with today's pullback in Nat Gas, five of my 40 are up at least 20% in two weeks, including WPRT (+30.7%). UNG, which was up to 8.83 two days ago, fulfilled my expectations since and closed today at 8.49 (-3.85%). Again, UNG is a buy below 8 and a sell above 8.50, or maybe it's more like a sell at 8.75 now. Higher highs, higher lows and the sector shows no signs of cooling off. I'd guess that Nat Gas will remain hot as long as we can all see that Gulf oil live video.

After that, who knows? I just want to be in the sector's top play rather than bet big on a skittish natty gasser penny when the ice starts to melt.

Nodding off, but Natty Gassers fueling up

Just as I got up from a sitting-up-at-my-desk nap, natural gas stocks are rallying. With the market climbing back to break-even levels, 21 of the 40 natty gassers on my list are in the green, a huge change from the one-hour point (an hour ago) when only three were green.

MMR dipped from a 5% gain down to a 3% pickup, but is now back to 5.67% ahead (12.67). CRZO is up 2.57% (20.76), but I still have my sights set on WPRT and CLNE.

Hitting the sack soon. Almost 6 am here in the islands. European markets close in 10 minutes, so I'll be watching closely. Might enter small, small positions in AAPL, WPRT and/or CSTR. If I go long, I'll hedge with FAZ or VXX.

Volume still too thin to take any direction seriously. Might be best to stay in 100% cash and fuggedaboudit.

Horrid opening for Nat Gas

No surprise here that Nat Gas is selling off as a sector after HUGE gains in the past 12 sessions since Obama's clean energy speech. My list of 40 has only one natty gasser in the green: HGT (21.77 +0.83%). The rest are in the red as traders take their profits rather than hang on in a negative market so far.

Here's my little theory: Goldman Sachs propped up the market to get its CBOE IPO off the ground yesterday, launching it way, way up. Now that CBOE's launch is done, GS is getting out of a number of stocks, including those in the Nat Gas industry. Right on cue, with so little conviction (volume) in the market on Monday and Tuesday, it's not taking very much selling to see stocks tumble. (This isn't any claim to a perfect theory; GS has a total of four IPOs this week, so a big, long dump of stocks isn't to its advantage.)

WPRT is down 1.96% to 19.08 after hitting a low of 18.61. CLNE is down 2.72% to 17.67. UNG down 2.27% to 8.63. Overbought conditions all around are hitting this sector as hard as expected.

AAPL, though, is bucking the trend, up 1.15% to 262.67. GOOG is barely positive and NFLX is up 1.24% to 125.10 after yesterday's down action. Netflix is probably benefiting from Coinstar's news. CSTR's Redbox has a new deal with Paramount to issue new releases. With Blockbuster on the verge of bankruptcy, its new-release deal with the industry is pointless and Coinstar picks up the deals now. CSTR is up 3.14% to 54.15, off its high of 54.76. Recent high was 57-plus.

CSTR would make an intriguing catalyst trade on a neutral or bullish day. Not so sure about trying it in this climate.

Just about everything else I'm watching is flat or negative except for a couple of pennies: the aforementioned BBI (0.27 +11.44%) and HAUP (2.51 +3.72%).

Financials are wobbly, as expected. STD is down 2.77% (10.87) and the euro is down 0.36% to 122.62 as Spain issued a challenge to Germany yesterday, asking for stress tests on Euro banks.

Nat Gas update: Short-term tipping point?

What goes up must come down unless it's March of 2009 or pre-Internet bubble bursting time. Bull runs can outlast even the most extravagant projections of uber-bulls and squash the testicles of the biggest bears. But last year's run was powered by the Fed stimulus program, among other free-now-but-punishing-to-all-later maneuvers.

For now, it's time to look at my Nat Gas 40. It's fun to see their gains, even if I have not a single position in any. Besides, things are just frothy enough here in the 12 days since Obama's clean energy speech (and his anti-BP chatter today) to possibly mark a short-term top in one of the hottest sectors.

These 40 natty gassers include today's closing price and the gain since Obama's speech 12 days ago, and the candlestick chart analysis. Interesting that the only two that got "Sell Confirmed" status today are among my least favorite issues. 

My Favorite 5:
CLNE 18.17 (+22.39%) — "Buy If" (American Bulls)
HGT 21.59 (+11.29%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
PSE 25.15 (+4.44%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
SWN 44.99 (+13.04%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
WPRT 19.42 (+32.2%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)

Natty Gassers I like, though they lack strong balance sheets:
BEXP 18.96 (+9.23%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
CHK 25.36 (+11.28%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
DIG (etf) 31.13 (+13.49%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
FCG (etf) 18.05 (+10.80%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
FST 32.19 (+18.26%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
HK 21.67 (+16.63%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
KOG 3.62 (+13.48%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
KWK 13.81 (+23.3%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
MMR 11.99 (+16.52%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
NBL 66.45 (+12.51%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
NFX 57.05 (+14.21%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
NGS 17.25 (+12.09%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
PETD 26.60 (+27.7%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
PQ 7.96 (+27.97%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
PVA 24.78 (+13.36%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
PXJ 15.93 (+11.01%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
REXX 11.97 (+15.88%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
ROSE 26.21 (+19.9%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
STR 49.88 (+13.16%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
TLM 17.78 (+5.52%) — "Buy If" (American Bulls)
UNG (etf) 8.83 (+17.89%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
UPL 50.04 (+1.73%) — "Buy If" (American Bulls)
XOP 44.15 (+8%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)

Several of these natty gassers are hot, but fundamentally are mediocre:
BRNC 4.00 (+14.94%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
COG 38.41 (+11.24%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
CRK 33.53 (+15.34%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
CRZO 20.24 (16.66%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
DPTR 1.16 (+2.65%) — "Sell Confirmed" (American Bulls)
FTK 1.44 (+8.27%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
GDP 15.29 (27.1%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
HERO 3.19 (+23.17%) — "Buy Confirmed" (American Bulls)
IEO 55.20 (+9.13%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
RRC 50.83 (+8.63%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
VNR 22.46 (+5.74) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
XCO 18.88 (+8.07%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
XTO 44.23 (+4.44%) — "Wait" (American Bulls)

Of the Nat Gas 40, only one was a "Buy Confirmed" today. Just three are on "Buy If" status.

On a neutral front, 22 are on "Hold" and only one is a "Wait".

12 are "Sell If" status and one was "Sell Confirmed" today.

Today may have been the tipping point for the sector in the near term. For short-term traders, it's time to start scaling out a bit. For long-term nat gas believers, no need to get out yet barring a broad market puke party. There's a nice climb ahead as long as A) Obama continues preaching to the choir of energy worriers and B) we have live video of Mother Earth's blood spewing out of the Gulf.