Coffee, cream and METAL MANIA! (updated)

8:24 am (Hawaii) It rained overnight in Honolulu. Weather was cool for a July night. Perfect sleeping weather. I just got up after a productive workout last night, and it's almost the end of the session. Did I miss anything?

Hell yes. I remember Turd Ferguson noting yesterday that, technically, he expects gold to break out to a new high, and if that happened ... fully bullish. Turn on the TV. Turn on the computer. I sorta dread this. If gold breaks out, good. My XG and DGP will do nicely, even at small quantities. But I sold out of AGQ two days ago at a loss of $12/share. Small, small position, but still.

The Metals list I keep is almost all green (79%). It's a wipeout day for Metals bears. Only the bearish ETFs and ETNs are red. The indices are all up. XG is up 5%, DGP up 1.3%. AGQ is up 10% to 195. I sold at 172. Again, my timing ... not so good. I'm glad I held some gold stocks. It's like selling FAZ last Friday instead of holding until Monday. That cost me some. But the AGQ sell just cost me roughly $600. That's on a small position, really small. And if silver continues to rise, AGQ keeps going up at double warp speed, who knows, maybe to its all-time high at 382 (April 28).

I can imagine it's been a wonderful day so far for metal bugs. But Turd's site is down. Has it been overwhelmed by all the excitement? I need my Turd & Turdites fix.

James Turk, in his consistent, almost monotone voice, has been pounding the table for gold for a few months. He keeps repeating that this will be (not could be) a breakout summer for gold. Yesterday, he said it would be like the summer of 1982, when Mexico's default led to a golden rocketship. Holy cow, Mr. Turk is probably correct.

Everything at the top of my Metals list gapped up and is already enjoying bigger volume than yesterday: AGQ, AG, NUGT, EGO, SVM, SIL, DBS, XG, SLV, PSLV, GOLD, GDXJ, SLW, PLTM, EXK, REE, GDX, COPX ... wait, I take that back. PLTM hasn't matched yesterday's volume yet. It's all almost too good to be true. Like a setup. But on this kind of volume? I doubt it. It's usually a thin market that gets toyed with and peon traders like me get puppeteered.

Is it this simple? Obama threatens to yank Social Security, and the market reads it as a desperate threat and confirmation that QE3 is on? Or what's-his-face on Capitol Hill, the Republican who caved in and compromised on the Democrats' offer yesterday ... that's what's driving this? I haven't had time to check yet. Maybe after a bowl of cereal.

Update 8:51 am (Hawaii) On the 15-minute chart, AGQ has never exploded like it did this morning at the open. There was major volume two days ago, when shares sold off. But this morning was to the upside in a gap up. Trying find an entry point is difficult here. After closing yesterday at 177.68, there's a lot of room to pull back.

Has the CME mafia and the govt lost control of the price? Is the manipulation over? Probably not on both counts. But yesterday and today show that even in the middle of what's supposed to be the summer doldrums, the market may be too powerful to shackle 100% of the time — especially when it comes to gold. That is where old money resides. Old BIG money.

Update 9:07 am (Hawaii) Excellent post at SilverGoldSilver.com by guest writer SRSrocco about commercial shorts losing grip on silver. I'll add it to the library reading list later today. I got to eat some cereal. Kept watching AGQ but couldn't find a suitable point of entry. Now it's pulling back below 196, it looks like ... feeling desperate to get in near the highs is never a good feeling, and rarely leads to good results. I like the feeling of buying cheap, it's just that I really don't expect AGQ to go back near 177 any time soon.

Only a rocket ship loaded with 10 trillion ounces of gold and silver from another galaxy could save the US economy here. And that would be bullish for PMs. Production/GDP/jobs aren't about to spike high in the next several months. Not even space aliens can repair that.

Silver and gold stars

11:06 am (Hawaii) Today's silver stars?

GPL 3.82 +0.22 (+6.1%) volume slightly up

SLW 36.75 +1.77 (+5.1%) volume slightly up

EXK 9.81 +0.44 (+4.7%) volume slightly down

PAAS 46.44 +1.59 (+3.6%) volume slightly down

SIL 25.01 +0.67 (+2.8%) volume up big

AG 20.28 +0.42 (+2.1%) volume slightly up

SVM 10.37 +0.13 (+1.3%) volume slightly up

AGQ 177.38 +2.18 (+1.2%) volume even

All are afterhours prices. Not a lot of depth in silver gainers, but notable.

Gold stars:

NUGT 32.65 +1.92 (+6.3%) volume slightly down

GG 52.45 +2.04 (+4.1%) volume up big

NGD 10.75 +0.40 (+3.9%) volume slightly up

EGO 16.37 +0.55 (+3.6%) volume slightly up

XG 14.50 +0.46 (+3.3%) volume slightly up

GDX 57.36 +1.74 (+3.1%) volume up

ABX 47.14 +1.26 (+2.8%) volume up

GDXJ 36.30 +0.80 (+2.3%) volume up big

DGP 50.76 +0.74 (+1.5%) volume up big

UGL 53.80 (+1.4%) volume slightly up

Reign of the metals

8:11 am (Hawaii) Just up from a nice night of sleep. It's cloudy and somewhat cool in Honolulu, a day after the 4th of July. The real fireworks are happening in precious metals.

SVM is up 11.3% to 10.12 on massive volume. EXK up 10.2% to 9.03 on massive volume. AGQ up 8.8%, average volume. AG up 8.2%, massive volume. GPL up 7.1% on solid volume. NUGT up 6.3% on good volume. SLW up 6% on decent volume. EGO up 6% on good volume. PSLV up 4.6% on average volume. DBS up 4.5% on modest volume.

SLV, SIL, NGD, XG, FSG, GDXJ, GG, PAAS, DGP, UGL, WITE, ABX, GDX, GLTR, PSAU, PALL, DBP — all up more than 2%. Just about all are also off their highs of the day. Why such bullishness? Is it rumor that the debt ceiling will be increased (again)? Possibly.

73% of my Metals list is green. What's not working? ZSL, obviously. DUST also down big. REE is sinking, -5.4% after Japan released news of a major rare earths find on a nearby seabed. Getting all that up to surface is challenge, but the info was enough to hit REE and AVL hard. MCP is down "only" 1.1%.

Crude is up, the indices are flat. Metals up big. I remained heavy in cash going into this week. If we have already hit a bottom in silver and gold, if James Turk and other goldbugs are correct in predicting a monster run in PMs this summer, this would be the time to move in. (Actually, it would've been last week when spot silver was below 34.) But I'm still in wait-and-see mode. My favorite miners remain EXK and XG, but I've got no position in them. I won't be walking in at these levels. If anything, I'll start with a small position on a dip and see how the week plays out.

One thing is for sure: volume in silver is heavy today, for whatever reason. Maybe hedge funds are piling in because they already loaded up on stocks last week. That money has to go somewhere and the hedgies tend to move in packs.

Update 8:33 am (Hawaii) Between AAPL, AMZN and BIDU — big boys with growth — BIDU continues to move up with strength in volume. AAPL and AMZN are up today, but volume has petered out. Not touching any of these for now. BIDU could reverse any time and the flaky behavior of the indices seem to indicate that the bull run of the past week is slowing.

NFLX is up 6.8% on major volume, now trading at 286+.

Wednesday afternoon cinema & library (updated)

10:30 am (Hawaii) Just a lazy morning in Honolulu, partly cloudy, 80 degrees, light tradewinds as I enjoy the coolness out on my lanai. Haven't touched the TV remote all morning and enjoying zero white noise. DJ +0.6% to 12,261. Nas +0.4% to 2,740. S&P +0.8% to 1,307. End-of-month window dressing continues. Crude oil up; UCO +4.5% on roughly double of yesterday's volume.

AGQ, GPL, NUGT, COPX, PAAS, NGD, CU, GDXJ, DBS, AG, SLV, SLW top my Metals list (74% green). The miners: NUGT, GD XJ, SLW have significantly higher volume today, but the rest of the leaders had matching numbers to yesterday. Miners were long overdue for a bounce. Beware of dead cats.

Video

(new) StormCloudsGathering: Why the national debt will never be repaid (June 29 2011)

RealDemocracyGr: Greek police vs. Protestors (June 29 2011)
ABC: Fire surrounds New Mexico nuclear lab (June 29 2011)
morganslv: Silver update (June 29 2011)
MSNBC: Greece OKs austerity plan as riots grip Athens (June 29 2011)
James Turk: Philipp Vorndran interview (June 29 2011)
Robin Griffiths: Gold, silver will behave as money, not as commodities (June 29 2011)
Wafdawg: The psychology of silver and independence (June 29 2011)
MoneyBags73: 5 weeks to US default on debt obligations (June 28 2011)
Ron Paul: People are finally waking up to the tyranny (June 28 2011)
Sean Brodrick: Big stocks with big, fat dividends (June 28 2011)

(new) syyenergy7: Bob Chapman article from 2003, Silverado Gold (June 25 2011)
Robert Kiyosaki: Food storage, guns for coming 2012 Depression (Mar 22 2011)

Reports & Blogs

Silverfuturist: Master Pattern silver: $26 then $50 this year? (June 29 2011)
• Reasonable enough, though I don't expect 26. Then again, Spot silver went from 21 to 9 (57% pullback) before running to 49. A 57% pullback from 49 would take spot to 21. Again, I doubt that scenario.
Turd Ferguson: ChartDaddy (June 29 2011)
• Copper as a predictor?
Mineweb: China's first precious metals spot exchange opens in 'Silver City' (June 29 2011)

Chris Whalen: $200 billion in claims against JP Morgan, banks (June 29 2011)
Max Keiser: Live blogging from witness in Syntagma Square (June 29 2011)

Bix Weir: Frightening Comex silver volume in May massively distorts silver price (June 29 2011)
Dan Norcini: Gold-silver ration reflects trader views toward 'risk' (June 29 2011)
Ian Wyatt: Don't ignore this silver trend (June 29 2011)

Sam Kirtley: A look at trading gold and its Eurozone crisis premium (June 29 2011)
Chris Martenson: The screaming fundamentals for owning gold, silver (June 29 2011)

Doug Groh: Not adding gold bullion now (June 29 2011)

Kevin Kerr: Why Obama's desperate move could send oil ETF prices soaring (June 29 2011)

CNBC: Apple may offer older iPhone for free in fall (June 29 2011)
Info Wars: Ron Paul: Obama's Libya War power grab impeachable (June 29 2011)
Jeb Handwerger: Investors around the world monitoring expiration of QE2 (June 29 2011)
Salt Lake Tribune: Lee: Gold, silver should be treated like currency (June 29 2011)
Gary North: Geithner's victims of last resort (June 29 2011)

(new) U. of California Dept. of Nuclear Engineering: Radiation sampling results (June 28 2011)

James Turk: Summer gold trading will be one for history books (June 28 2011)

New York Sun: A first step to sound money (June 28 2011)

Jason Hommel: How I felt when I bought silver (June 28 2011)
• Tim Geithner: Letter to Sen. Michael Bennet (May 13 2011)
Vedran Vuk: China becomes choosy (June 29 2011)
Marin Katusa: America's oil supply: keystone for survival (June 29 2011)
Michael Johnson: Five muni ETFs to watch if Meredith Whitney's call is right (June 29 2011)
Tony Sagami: Latin stocks that are making a bundle from China (June 29 2011)
Le Fly: The Great Spectacular Continues (June 29 2011)
• He went long financials
Zero Hedge: US Mint to start selling 2011 ASE proofs at 75% premium (June 29 2011)
Doug Hornig: The great nugget scam (June 28 2011)
Wallet Pop: Food stamps for fast food? (June 28 2011)

New America Now: Economic collapse, top 5 places not to be (June 26 2011)
Gary North: Bernanke channels Benchley (June 25 2011)

Denise Milani

Easy come, easy go

9:10 am (Hawaii) Is this a paper mache market today? I woke up a few times in the past few hours, checked volume, and went back to sleep. Traders who stepped in on Monday and early today made their profits, but beyond today, it's all fluff, I'm guessing. Though my Regular watch list is 82% green, just about every upside play has anemic volume. A few have similar volume to yesterday or volume that's close to average. But a large majority are up on hardly any trading. Major caution sign!

Monster Worldwide (MWW) is an exception. Big volume, nice candlestick. CYB (Wisdom Tree Chinese yuan fund) is also up on huge volume. I'm always interested in ways to play yuan long term. Anyone (not me) with a huge stack of benjamins in the bank has to think about buying a significant amount of yuan to hedge against inflation.

73% of my Metals list is green, but it's the same trap there with light volume. It's true that there have been big moves, week-long moves, right after stocks trade lightly. Maybe we just don't have any sellers left. Maybe China saving the Eurozone (temporarily) is enough. Maybe the Fed buying up Treasurys is enough. Maybe Nike beating expectations is plenty. But I'm not sold on this.

The one byproduct of today's gains (DJ +1.1%, Nas +1.3%, S&P +1.1%) is that silver's downward momentum has finally stopped, at least for today. GPL (+5.9%), EXK (+4.6%), AG (+2.7%), SIL (+2.5%), SLW (+2.4%, PSLV (+2.2%) all helping the miners sector. But it's hard to get excited when volume is so restrained.

Gold also has a bunch of healthy players, including NUGT (+2.9%), NGD (+2.3%) and GDXJ (+2%), but again, thin volume. XG and GG are up on massive volume. Crude oil is up. Copper is up. But on the whole, it all smells more like end-of-month buying by hedge funds to pretty up the books, not a legit turnaround. There isn't another clear catalyst in sight, which means we could see a slow meltdown for days to come. Perhaps weeks. Same scenario we had a week ago, but in slow-motion. It's thinnish markets like this that set up the average guy for a beatdown via flash crash. I'm content to be mostly cash and getting my sleep.

Not quite minus squared

9:37 am (Hawaii) Market is down (Dow -99.83/-0.8%, Nas -31.77/-1.2%, S&P -13.09/-1.0%), but it's not convincing of an onrushing disaster, either. Dollar is up 6/10th of a percentage point, crude oil down again (SCO up 1%). The Metals list is 27% green, 73% red with a majority on the plus side being bear plays. But the key is low volume up and down. Maybe it's a respite of sorts and Monday begins a bloodbath. Or maybe this market will remain choppy, indignant and petulant.

ZSL is up 5.3% to 19.46. DUST, QID, gold bears GLL and DZZ are among the leaders on the list. REE, MCP and AVL have kept rare earths near the top.

Meanwhile, the finnies faded. Three were in the green in the opening minutes today, but now all are in the red. NBG, which got up to 1.43 yesterday on the positive news of austerity psuedo-measures, is down 7% to 1.32. Pulling back is no surprise, but I thought there might be continued momentum after profit-taking. It's tough to make it when you're a bankster.

Silver plays are getting minced again, not a shock. AGQ down 5.4% to 161.54, EXK (-5.2%), SLW (-4.3%), PAAS (-3%), GPL (-4.5%), SVM (-5.1%) are among the bruised silver miners. XG (-2%), NUGT (-5.3%), GG (-3.7%), GDXJ (-3.1%), DGP (-3%) are among the gold plays getting stomped. DGP's descent is unusual; it's normally not a big mover up or down. It's my lone play, a small position, and Spot Gold has room to fall, maybe to 1450. Not fun, but the puppet masters will do what they deem necessary to justify implementation of the next bailout/quantitative easing/big lie.

My Regular watch list is 26% green, 74% red. AAPL is down 1.6% to 325.95. TVIX (+7.5%) and VXX (+3.7%) are up big, as is QID (+3.5%). No buyers, and it seems some hedge funds have emptied out. It's nice to rest easy on summer vacation.

It gets interesting on the Regular list. CMG (+1.1%), RLOC (+0.8%), CSTR (+0.3%) are up. Then it's red, red, red, red ...

Greecian formula?

10:17 am (Hawaii) Major momentum swings today. Jobs report bad. Greece austerity good. Looking over several charts from AAPL to NBG to AG, could it be remotely possible that this bullish vibe — increased volume, heavy momentum from lows to highs by the close — is the real deal? I would find that preposterous to conceive. This is late June, QE2 is almost done and the Fed is in no rush to usher in QE3. In fact, the Fed seems content to see the market tank, even crash, to justify any further fiat currency destruction, i.e. printing trillions more US Dollars.

Yet there are massive numbers in some of these equities/etfs. Are they spurred by high-frequency trading? Probably, but some of those are direct from the hedge funds, and moves on big volume don't lie in the near term. Usually.

I got out of FAZ despite my long-term pessimism about the debt crisis. I am not going to wait around and get cut to pieces by market momentum to the downside. But I am willing to re-enter FAZ once the financials' true colors show up vivid and bright again. Like maybe tomorrow morning. If Spain and Portugal opt for more austere routes, like Greece, that does NOT help US banksters one bit. So it can be possible for NBG to rocket higher on austerity measures while financials stateside swallow another plate of poison.

I looked hard at NBG before the close and had an order at 1.41, but never got it filled. Bad timing. Or good, depending on how the market follows through tomorrow. It could easily pull back into the 1.30s after today's robust gain. A tiny position would be interesting, but a fast move up isn't in the cards. I can see NBG at 2.00 in a few months, but the constant downturns of other banks will keep it leashed. A move to 2.50 or higher could happen within a year. A double is never a bad thing.





Apple held high ground even when the market was still down big. AAPL closed is at 330.20 after hours (+2.3%). Today's candlestick is not exactly bullish, but it is not bearish either.

Baidu has been bullish, as well, with good news earlier in the week. It wasn't long ago that BIDU split 3-for-1 and was sitting at 70. If there's a "safe" play in China, this would be one. Big Brother protects its little brothers.

LULU and other stocks look bullish, but in this bizarro market, LULU could easily lose its recent gains. That small float cuts both ways.

Silver was a roller coaster ride today. Silver Wheaton, like AAPL, showed strength when it was a sea of red. Net-net, SLW had slightly more volume and is up 1% to 33.13 after hours.

First Majestic (AG) also had a positive day (+0.8%) despite the pummeling on silver. Like Silver Wheaton, First Majestic's fundamental numbers are impressive, particularly in profit margin. I think that gets tampered with as energy prices fluctuate, but AG is still a solid miner.

I still like EXK (8.49 after hours), which was down nearly 1% but is still among the stronger plays this week among silver miners. 7.50 is support, and some shrewd traders got in at about 7.60 recently for this elevator ride.










AGQ, GPL, PAAS, SLV for your viewing.

 

 

ZSL was a solid play on the short side, but was well off its intraday high (19.11). ZSL is at 18.49 (+6.4%) after hours.

If the CME mafia continue to pull strings on silver, a little ZSL would make good protection.

DGP (double gold bull) looked horrible on the chart, big gap down on increased volume. If the puppet masters knock gold down, as I expect, to further their argument in favor of QE3, so be it. They will not and cannot hold gold down for long, though. Eventually, the debt crisis will overwhelm all factors, and the US will have to take severe action one way or another. Every way benefits real money: gold and silver. So I will hold my little position in DGP and continue to accumulate hard assets.

Rangold (GOLD) was a rarity today, a gold play that finished green (80.03, +0.5% after hours). I don't trade it, know little about it.

There were a few gold plays that showed some strength, like NGD.

GLD was GLD.

I still like Extorre Gold Mines (XG), even with its huge run in the past several months. They are great marketers and have been successful as of late with their finds in Argentina.










DZZ is one way to play a downturn in gold. GLL is another way (+3.7% today). On the whole, however, I don't plan to short gold. If I bet against anything, it would be the financials or silver, maybe the Nas (QID). I've never played QID, and unless there's a complete breakdown, I won't touch it. But the Nas does fall apart in a big way from time to time, so QID is worth keeping an eye on.

 

I'm mostly cash, same as the last several months. Small, but growing pile of physical metals.

Hitting for power

6:59 am (Hawaii) Just got up to another cool morning in the islands, a nice 73 degrees, partly cloudy, low humidity. The market is where it's hot. Dow up 91.96 (+0.78%), Nas up 47.31 (+1.8%), S&P +14.60 (+1.1%).

Silver is on fire and dominating the top of my Metals list, which is 79% green, 19% red. Unlike other up days, volume is huge so far, which has me intrigued.

AG 17.85, +7.1%
SVM 9.16, +6.9%
EXK 8.37, +6.5%
PAAS 30.36, +6.3%
NUGT 28.73, +5.5%
AVL 6.56, +5%
XG 11.99, +4.9%
SLW 32.57, +4.5%
EGO 13.99, +4%
SIL 23.46, +4%
GOLD 77.69, +3.5%
GDXJ 33.67, +3.16%

All of these upside plays are close to yesterday's volume or, like EXK and XG, have already surpassed it. How is this possible? US Dollar down, Euro up, Greece going through the formalities after the closing bell. Bernanke to speak tomorrow. Even AAPL is up 2.8% to 324.27.

Is it just about Greece and the Euro? I'd say it was a weak dead-cat bounce, but on this kind of volume? The finnies are up big. NBG (+7.4%), BBVA (+2.6%), STD (+2.4%), C (+1.8%), BAC (+1.1%), GS (+1%), GS (+1%), JPM (+0.6%) all up. FAZ down 2.9%.

Whatever the reason, EXK once again bounced off the 7.50-7.60 area. This is no place to chase here.

As for rare earths, AVL is hot on fair volume, MCP is up 1.3% to 53.11 on tiny volume, and REE is up 2% to 10.36, also on very small volume. They had their big run yesterday, but today isn't all bad at all. Looking forward, I'm leaning more toward trading in rare earths and/or holding a small long-term position. Otherwise, I'm still 90% cash, haven't made a trade in nearly two weeks. The game plan was to wait until tomorrow for a signal in either direction and I'm content waiting this out.

My Regular watch list is 87% green, 13% red. The big boys like AAPL, DIS, GOOG, NFLX are up, but on low volume. The smaller players like LULU are up on huge volume (+5%).

Hustle and wait

7:23 am (Hawaii) An old ex-military friend once told me, "The military is all about hurry up, get there quick and wait. Wait and wait. All the time." He has a point there. What's the point of efficiency unless you're so good at it, you end up waiting a majority of the time. But to be there, armed and prepared, conditioned for any circumstance, that's the essence of success. The trophies and glory are byproducts.

I've been up since 4:20 am or so, which would be 10:20 am Eastern. I shined up an old coin I found among my pile of dirty pennies, nickels, dimes and quarters. I took in the morning light, which was obscured by light gray clouds over our green mountain. It's good here.

The market? It's stuttering. It's meandering. It has no real direction, just a head fake here and a head fake there. AGQ looks good for a few minutes, then ZSL takes the ball and runs, but before it can turn the corner, it tanks.

I'm still all cash here. Greece and other Euro zone spots are getting media excited. But all in all, things are somewhat calm with crude oil at 98 or so. Spot Gold sank from 1515 overnight to 1492 this morning as the Dollar gained. Spot Silver is at 34.73 after dipping to 32.20 early yesterday. It went to 36+ overnight. We're just five days away from the debut of Hang Seng's Hong Kong's gold futures, an 18-hour/day market that may challenge Comex.

Yesterday, in a post that was stolen and sent into the Blogger.com Bermuda Triangle, I noted that AGQ and ZSL were both in the red at the same time for a long stretch. Made no sense until I revisited that this morning. The reason both ultra ETNs were down big? Outflow. Traders were taking their money out of the market. They were frustrated and decided to get the eff out, as I have done for months. That explains today's lethargic activity. That explains a lot. Liquidity is drastically different. It's not bone dry, but traders are mentally worn out and fatigued. They cashed out. Can't blame them.

Today, AGQ is up 3.9% to 172.10 even though 64% of my metals list is red. Silver in general is red: AG, EXK, PAAS. But some are positive: SLW, PSLV, SLV. ZSL is off by 8.1%.

I still want much more physical silver, but the thesis here is to make as much fiat as possible (without major risk), then collect physical when spot prices decline. Maybe that's later this month, or maybe in early June if the Fed doesn't indicate a bias toward or against QE3. But it's coming, and if the Fed is successful in driving down commodities (especially crude oil), the equation to justify more easing becomes acceptable (?) to the general public and its shills in D.C. They're going to do all they can to stave off the austerity movement.

So what does that have to do with physical? A lot, no doubt about it. So I'll play it as we see it, and if they drive down the price of Spot, I'll come along for the ride. But that means resisting any tempting price today. Example: Scottsdale 10-oz stacker got down to $385 last night. I almost pulled the trigger. It went back to $395 later. But this morning, it's back down to to $385. If Spot gets back to 33, then 30, I'm probably shopping. Shiny metal. So pretty.

Frazzled and dazzled

10:02 am (Hawaii) Yes, that was a wild ride, but unexpected, at that. Spot Gold was volatile and hostile today. I slept in while GLD rose to a high of 153.61, which put me up at nearly $4 per share. Small position, modest paper gain. By the time I woke up around 6 am, it was noon in NYC and GLD was lower, hovering around 152. Consider me one of the latecomers who got shaken out of the golden tree. I dumped the position at 150.38 just before the close. Naturally, GLD rallied a bit into the bell, and is rising again, now 150.60 after hours.

I don't regret entering this position. It was still net positive, though I sold at more than $3 off the high. Sometimes there's no telling what a stock will do and there's no way to really read it until there's some skin in the game. I was all right with GLD tricking and cascading down to 152 or 151; it was too late at 151+ to get out with a good profit, but too early to depart. A bounce could've arrived and my position was small enough that the dollar amount between an exit at 150 or 151 wasn't much. So I waited.

Because I still don't trust the alien algo machines when an avalanche hits, I prefer to get out with a little profit or break even than wait around for a loss, and that's what I did. When things settle down, I'll be happy to re-open a GLD position. Or something in NGD or DGP. But 100% cash is always fine for the short term.

Had I been in GLD 10 or 20 or 50 dollars ago, it would've been easy to let it ride through this storm. Either 150 would hold as support or simply cave in; I'd bet on holding. But managing risk is key in this oddball market, especially with such a high entry point (149.69). Volume was light overall and all three indices were down fractionally. However, the PMs got trashed. 80% of my Metals watch list is red, just 15% green. Those in the green were bear ETFs.

Spot Gold is 1545. Spot Silver is 43.87. I watched SLV and the miners a bit. It's tough when two elephants are sitting on you. It might be awhile before the elephants leave the room.

ACQ down 16.7% to 298. PSLV down 10.5% to 19.44. DBS down 8.7% to 77.00. SLV down 8.2% to 43.01. (SLV was below 43 for the past hour or so.) EXK -7.6% to 10.61. SLW lost 7% to 37.78. On and on. Relative to the big gains of the past few months, silver is still a winner, but I'm not thinking of buying anything but physical here.

My regular watch list was throttled, as well, with 71% in the red and 28% in the green. The day started far more bullishly, but AAPL ended up down 1.1% (346.22) as low volume kept the market in the doldrums. AMZN was up 2.7% to 201. Amazing ride since that earnings call when shares plummeted from 181 to 172 in a couple of minutes, then rallied back.

NFLX rose 2% to 237 on an upgrade from Citigroup. Ridiculous. However, where there's a cult following of unabashed, bullish traders, that's where there's quick money to be made on either side. I've never shorted a thing, but I can see how money can be made on NFLX riding it up and down. Same with silver.

Update 1:51 pm (Hawaii) A third margin rate on Spot Silver??? Three hikes in one week at a total of 35%. Holy crap. That explains everything about Spot Silver's collapse today. It also says a lot about the devious shit going on behind the scenes.

Turd Ferguson is who I read when I want instant info on the truth behind silver. He writes:

The CME/EE complex is desperately trying to squash demand for silver. The entire price discovery and delivery process of the Comex is collapsing. These desperate times are calling for desperate measures and you are seeing them play out in real time.

See Turd's latest at his blog. 

Lives have been destroyed for silver and gold since the beginning of colonial tyranny. It continues today. But who wins this battle in 2011? I can't say for sure.

Spot Silver bouncing a bit since Sydney opened shop. Now 44.71.

Spot Gold also pushing a bit higher thanks to the Sydney trade, now at 1541.

It looks especially dire for SLV, the most manipulated instrument I know of. Traders don't want to be stuck holding the bag when JP Morgan/Comex can't disprove the widespread belief that its physical silver vaults are ... empty. Then there's major naked shorting, an elephant stomping on ants. And, naturally, the profit-taking in a stock/ETF that's run from 28 to 49 in mere weeks. 

It's a tough place to be. Gold seems so much simpler, from ultra ETF DGP to small miners like XG to more standard GG. Even GLD is safer than SLV from my perspective. But I am not walking away entirely from Spot Silver. There's still so much potential left, so much money to be made for the nimble-footed. 

4:55 pm (Hawaii) From Jesse's Cafe Americain:

What does not kill this rally makes it stronger.

Fighting the paper price is becoming counter-productive, because it opens the door to additional buying of physical bullion from Asia. It is starting to look like a feedback loop, in which the struggle of the shorts to extricate themselves merely tightens their bonds.

So, which side wins? The one with an infinite line of credit from the Fed, or the one with an army of ants (retail peons)? I have no skin in the silver game this week, but it's no less compelling.

8:55 pm (Hawaii) Nice to see Spot Silver above 45 now, but that waterfall on the chart is still incredible to see. 

Spot Gold just drifting. Volume in May could be the lightest of any month so far this year. I'm expecting Spot Gold to remain in a tight range, while Spot Silver will fluctuate and gyrate many, many times, mostly to the downside. No need to be a hero here.

Weekend library

10:15 am (Hawaii) The coming week will be another fascinating one. There are few things on earth that can get me up at 3 a.m. on a daily basis like the market and the opportunity to profit. Spot Silver will be a roller coaster again, in all likelihood. Trading silver stocks makes more sense than buying and holding at this point unless you were in early. Nothing will beat owning physical gold and silver from a risk vantagepoint, but again, this is true if you were in early. Now? I'm starting to collect/stack/acquire physical. I don't expect to ever sell it. Just something I know that must be done, and it provides some peace of mind against a punchless dollar.

Gold miners were explosive yesterday. Can silver miners be far behind? My thesis that energy costs may sap the strength of all miners is being tested. Streamers. Silver Wheaton (SLW). Miners. Endeavour (EXK). Extorre Gold Mines (XG). Ultra bulls. DGP. All considerable for the picky palate.

Harvey Organ: We should see gold break 1600, silver in excess of 50 (Apr 30 2011)
(video) Robert Kiyosaki: Called dollar decline, oil/gold/silver explosion a year ago (June 6 2010)
(video) Mike Maloney/Robert Kiyosaki: The dollar's fall (May 19 2009)
The Journal: NATO airstrike in Tripoli kills Gaddafi's son and grandchildren (Apr 30 2011)
(audio) Turd Ferguson on Time Monk Radio Network (Apr 22 2011)
Don't Tread on Me: The Silver Bullet and the Silver Shield (Feb 25 2011)
Dr. Antal Fekete: Silver and Opium (Feb 17 2011)