Dollar is powering higher this morning, taking most stocks lower. AAPL was somewhat of an exception, off its premarket high (602.98). The skittish mood was enough to bump me out at 601.50 for a small profit (+8.60 or so). AAPL could hold this morning's gain, but after running the past few sessions, it's due for a minor drop.
Economy is doing a little better with this morning's strong payroll number, strong meaning better than expected. That's part of the reason why the QE bulls are tentative for the time being. I'll be getting some sleep.
Update 9:40 am HST: AAPL ran hot in the face of head winds in the market. While the Dow (-34) and Nasdaq (-3) were ragged, AAPL rose to 614+ as I slept. Now at 611.75. In hindsight, holding my position with a stop-loss at 600 or 599 would have done well. But I did sleep well.
Apple Inc earnings are on July 16. Coupled with the news late last week about the 7-inch iPad, the stock is doing its usual pre-earnings explosion. AAPL defies the market; FAZ is up 2.7%. TVIX up 2.2%. UUP (US dollar) up 1.3%. EUO up 3.5%.
Showing posts with label iPad 2. Show all posts
Showing posts with label iPad 2. Show all posts
Thursday, July 5, 2012
Tuesday, July 3, 2012
Apple crunch?
Weird mix of good and bad news for AAPL as the market was generally flat in a low-volume, pre-holiday, half-day session. I got back in AAPL yesterday afterhours at slightly below 593. Shares hit 600 today and closed above 599. I'm holding the position over the holiday.
Whatever weirdness came out on AAPL, this just came out several minutes ago: a 7-inch iPad will be (reportedly) released this year. Good news? I own no iPad, no iPhone, not even an iPod. But this sounds good for AAPL longs.
Business Insider (via Bloomberg): Apple will launch smaller, cheaper iPad this year (July 3)
Whatever weirdness came out on AAPL, this just came out several minutes ago: a 7-inch iPad will be (reportedly) released this year. Good news? I own no iPad, no iPhone, not even an iPod. But this sounds good for AAPL longs.
Business Insider (via Bloomberg): Apple will launch smaller, cheaper iPad this year (July 3)
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
A fine time for Apple w(h)ine
Work is done. It is night. I can't stop. I keep returning to the task at hand. When is the right time to get back into AAPL? I can't argue against taking a one-day profit after a 9% gain. No way. But Apple Inc has so many positives under its wings, it is ludicrous to waste time, energy and resources investing or trading anywhere else. That's a bit extreme to say, but you get the gist.
AAPL rides on big waves, i.e. catalysts. There's none in the near term, but the next one could be a deal with China Telecom, which has 660 million users. Thinking longer term, it's insanity to ever sell AAPL shares with that kind of potential. If I had a much larger account, sure, I'd invest with a long-term position and trade around it. But getting in and out suits my approach (and modest funds), hopefully with lush results this year.
Here's Bloomberg's report on Apple including the China Telecom reference.
Friday, June 24, 2011
Weekend Theater & Library (updated)
Sanskrit Theater, Bengal, India
Video
Minyanville: 10 things you never knew about gold (June 13 2011)
bigdad06: Bankster Nation (June 24 2011)
George4title: Raising children during the Great Recession: Get Faith (June 24 2011)
CNBC: Apmex CEO Michael Haynes: Why central banks are buying gold (June 24 2011)
CNBC: Geithner interview, re: debt reduction negotiations (June 24 2011)
CNBC: Why isn't lower oil lifting stocks (June 24 2011)
Sites/Blogs
(new) Turd Ferguson: Saturday Stuff (June 25 2011)
• His chart analysis is as good as any
(new) chessNwine: 5 possible breakout stocks (June 25 2011)
(new) Le Fly: Bullish on UCO, EXK (June 24 2011)
(new) Scott Blier: But I had no idea ... (June 24 2011)
(new) Dan Norcini: CCI signaling deflationary forces are in ascendancy (June 24 2011)
(new) Dan Norcini: CCI signaling deflationary forces are in ascendancy (June 24 2011)
(new) Scott Strzelczyk: Our Wily Coyote moment has arrived (June 23 2011)
(new) James West: Dizzying new heights of global criminal enterprise (June 23 2011)
(new) Longrangesilver: Living through a currency devaluation (June 20 2011)
Ynetnews: Japan: Fukushima drone loses control, lands on reactor building (June 24 2011)Don't Tread On Me: The Silver Stealers (June 24 2011)
CTV News: House refuses to give Obama power to continue in Libya (June 24 2011)
CNN: Ron Paul worries Fort Knox gold is gone (June 24 2011)
Gonzalo Lira: IBG-YBG: Owning vs. Managing — Democracy vs. Kleptocracy (June 24 2011)
Apple Investor: Zynga now owns four of largest Facebook games (June 24 2011)
CNet: Ten ways to work smarter on your iPad (June 24 2011)
Reuters: Money mangers up net length in gold, silver-CTFC (June 24 2011)
Charles Hugh Smith: Why the Eurozone and Euro are both doomed (June 23 2011)
From Pimco: "IEA Action yesterday continues policymaker efforts to cap bad inflation (silver margins etc.) Nonetheless – higher inflation ahead." (June 23 2011)Mohamed El-Erian: On governments as portfolio managers (June 23 2011)
Gonzalo Lira: If Greece defaults, what happens to Portugal and Ireland — and Spain? (June 20 2011)
Gonzalo Lira: If Greece defaults, what happens to Portugal and Ireland — and Spain? (June 20 2011)
Labels:
Apple,
central banks,
euro,
Euro debt crisis,
Facebook,
gold,
Greece,
iPad 2,
Libya,
Mohamed El-Erian,
Ron Paul,
silver
Friday, March 25, 2011
Friday fun
5:35 am (Hawaii). Every time I start to hunch that AAPL will give back a chunk of today's gain, buyers step in and keep shares up in the clouds. AAPL up 1.8% to 351.19, a bit off its high, but holding up with strength. The market is up nicely so far, but some of the early gainers like WNR have lost some footing. WNR had been up more than 6% earlier and is now +4.1%, still the leader on my watch list.
The watch list is fully bullish at 75% green. Volatility is almost non-existent, but the skeptic in me says this might be the calm before the storm. Or is this lull in global tragedy going to extend after the recent crises?
Speaking of clouds, the North Carolina data center of Apple is becoming more interesting by the day. Is this about iTunes and the "locker"? Or will the A5 chip provide gaming on a whole new level? Both and more, probably. The long term looks solid for Apple. The short term for my position is undetermined. I may be 20 bucks late or 20 bucks early. I might close it in a minute. Maybe the hedge funds empty out and lock in profits, then get back in cheaper next week before end-of-the-month window dressing. I'm looking for any sensible reason to sell and book a decent profit on yesterday's AAPL buy, but it won't let me yet.
Update 7:13 am (Hawaii). Sold the AAPL position at 350.65, well off the HOD (351.84), but I wanted to lock in a decent (small) profit (7/10ths of 1% of my roll). It's purely psychological. Good confidence builder whether I want to acknowledge the fact or not. I like the way my electronic broker hangs on and gets me a good price both on the buy (346.75 yesterday afterhours) and sell while asks and bids are working against me.
AAPL drifting, probably on stop-loss orders, down to 350.42 now. Not swaying one way or the other on a possible re-entry. Even with the nice run this week, AAPL is roughly in the middle of its near-term trading range. iPad 2 global mania vs. Japan nuclear crisis + Middle East burning ... can anyone really hold over the weekend? Hat's off to the long longs in AAPL, the people who bought at 20 or 40 when bankruptcy talk was common. They have no problem holding over the weekend.
(photo: Tim Wimborne, Reuters, Sydney, Australia)
First in line for iPad 2 in Dublin
(photo: Adrian Weckler)
He flipped an iPad 2 for a €200 profit
(photo: Adrian Weckler)
iPad 2 stock out but lines remain in Dublin
(photo: Adrian Weckler)
9 to 5 Mac: Firemint's Real Racing 2 HD to run on your TV at full 1080p without upscaling (Mar 25 2011)
Barron's: Kodak jumps 10% awaiting possible AAPL, RIM patent review (Mar 25 2011)
Robert Sinn: The great silver bull and the curious case of PSLV (Mar 24 2011)
Thursday, March 24, 2011
International lover (of Apple)
iPad 2 line in Australia
(photo: Beau Giles/Flicker)
2:02 pm (Hawaii). Might be feeling queasy in the morning. Opened a position in AAPL afterhours. Catalysts are not massive, but added together, worth the risk: 1. RIMM choked on earnings today, 2. iPad 2 international launch tomorrow. Rumor of QE3 is just a rumor. I'm not relying on that. Between the short-term low (326) and high (365), AAPL is right about in the middle of its trading range. I don't consider this much of a timely position, not much edge. But I like the advantages just enough.
Ruled against entering WNR for now. Today's small pullback was an opportunity, but it could get better in the morning. Or worse. Willing to wait. Same with silver plays. Though the big picture is still bullish (SLW, EXK, PAAS, SLV), the short-term yanking is too much pain. The selloff could continue overnight and beyond tomorrow's opening bell. I'm 33% cash now.
The Australian: Young and old queue in Sydney heat for Apple iPad 2 (Mar 25 2011)
TUAW: iPad 2 lines across the globe (Mar 25 2011)
The Guardian: While you were sleeping... Australians end long wait for iPad 2 (Mar 25 2011)
Flicker/Beau Giles: iPad 2 Australia launch (Mar 24 2011)
Seeking Alpha/Jason Schwarz: Apple's run poised to resume (Mar 24 2011)
Asher Moses/Sydney Morning Herald: iQueue test for Apple fans who line up overnight for iPad 2 (Mar 24 2011)
Apple Insider: International iPad 2 lines form (Mar 24 2011)
9 to 5 Mac: NZ, Australia show 2-3 week shipping estimate (Mar 24 2011) US shipping adjusted
Eric Jackson/Forbes: 6 things analysts are missing about Apple (Mar 24 2011) 100M iPad 2 sales? North Carolina data center? China? NFC payments rev stream?
Asymco: Analysts: Apple's growth next year to drop to half of what it could obtain during the recession (Mar 24 2011)
Seeking Alpha/Michael K. Dawson: Another day, another Apple NFC rumor (Mar 22 2011)
Seeking Alpha/Paul Zimbardo: Apple: A better buy due to AT&T acquiring T-Mobile (Mar 21 2011)
And "way back" with Apple bear Reggie Middleton ...
Huffington Post: Empirical evidence of Android eating Apple (Aug 17 2010)
BoomBustBlog.com: Dissecting the Apple flash crash (Sept 29 2010)
"Apple is a company that derived 70% of its profit from one single product (iPhone) that is beseiged by very capable competition from all sides. ... Even with Apple firing in all cylinders, margins are bound to come down due to Android's success."
BoomBustBlog.com: Reggie Middleton wasn't the ONLY openly Apple bear in the blogosphere, was he? (Oct 18 2010)
BoomBustBlog.com: Reggie Middleton takes the challenge to Goldman Sach's Apple proclamation one step further (Dec 15 2010)
BoomBustBlog.com: The tablet pricing wars have commenced (Mar 7 2011)
BoomBustBlog.com: Shorting Apple and why software developers can make more money on Android (Mar 16 2011)
(photo: Asher Moses/Sydney Morning Herald)
(photo: Asher Moses/Sydney Morning Herald)
(photo: Asher Moses/Sydney Morning Herald)
The Australian: Young and old queue in Sydney heat for Apple iPad 2 (Mar 25 2011)
TUAW: iPad 2 lines across the globe (Mar 25 2011)
The Guardian: While you were sleeping... Australians end long wait for iPad 2 (Mar 25 2011)
Flicker/Beau Giles: iPad 2 Australia launch (Mar 24 2011)
Seeking Alpha/Jason Schwarz: Apple's run poised to resume (Mar 24 2011)
9 to 5 Mac: New MobileMe includes music locker, costs $20 per year (Mar 24 2011)
The Music Void: Apple pushing labels for April Music Locker launch (Mar 21 2011)
Macnn: North Carolina data center still on track for spring (Mar 23 2011)
Bloomberg: Japanese stocks climb for first time in 3 days (Mar 24 2011)Asher Moses/Sydney Morning Herald: iQueue test for Apple fans who line up overnight for iPad 2 (Mar 24 2011)
Apple Insider: International iPad 2 lines form (Mar 24 2011)
9 to 5 Mac: NZ, Australia show 2-3 week shipping estimate (Mar 24 2011) US shipping adjusted
Eric Jackson/Forbes: 6 things analysts are missing about Apple (Mar 24 2011) 100M iPad 2 sales? North Carolina data center? China? NFC payments rev stream?
Asymco: Analysts: Apple's growth next year to drop to half of what it could obtain during the recession (Mar 24 2011)
Seeking Alpha/Michael K. Dawson: Another day, another Apple NFC rumor (Mar 22 2011)
Seeking Alpha/Paul Zimbardo: Apple: A better buy due to AT&T acquiring T-Mobile (Mar 21 2011)
And "way back" with Apple bear Reggie Middleton ...
Huffington Post: Empirical evidence of Android eating Apple (Aug 17 2010)
BoomBustBlog.com: Dissecting the Apple flash crash (Sept 29 2010)
"Apple is a company that derived 70% of its profit from one single product (iPhone) that is beseiged by very capable competition from all sides. ... Even with Apple firing in all cylinders, margins are bound to come down due to Android's success."
BoomBustBlog.com: Reggie Middleton wasn't the ONLY openly Apple bear in the blogosphere, was he? (Oct 18 2010)
BoomBustBlog.com: Reggie Middleton takes the challenge to Goldman Sach's Apple proclamation one step further (Dec 15 2010)
BoomBustBlog.com: The tablet pricing wars have commenced (Mar 7 2011)
BoomBustBlog.com: Shorting Apple and why software developers can make more money on Android (Mar 16 2011)
Monday, March 14, 2011
Monday mourning
3 am (Hawaii). People will move on. Somehow, it is in our nature to endure the worst events and move forward. Disasters, catastrophes, tragedy are unavoidable whether they happen domestically or far away in Japan. What is also unavoidable is the in-your-face video footage of the carnage that continues to strike the people of Japan following Friday's quake and tsunami.
The US market is handling things fairly well, all things considered. Possibly, the weekend gave traders a chance to digest all the suffering abroad. While the Japanese deal with nuclear meltdowns and demolished towns, Saudi Arabia has increased its military presence in Bahrain. Those guys ain't foolin' around for a second. Is it bullish or bearish for oil? I think oil will be capped primarily by the Fed in one way or another. Four-dollar gasoline cannot be allowed to prevail for very long, so going long UCO here is something I will not do.
Meanwhile, iPad 2 sales are big time from what I've seen here in Honolulu, and the lines across America were outlandish. Great strategy by Apple, as usual, to prevent pre-orders, thus stirring up traffic and buzz in malls everywhere.
AAPL shares, which were down to 350 in pre-premarket a few hours ago (out of reach for peons like me), are now trading at 354 and climbing. My watch list was as low as 30% green, but is now 34% with 49% red. Lots can happen before the opening bell, but all things considered, the market is giving Apple its due. If there is no announcement about iPad 2 sales at some point today, that might spur a mini-selloff, but no matter what, the numbers will be robust.
Update, 5:13 am (Hawaii). Market vs. AAPL? Market wins, at least for now. Though AAPL is up fractionally, it has been all lower lows since topping 356 after the opening bell. I got out at 352.79 (stop loss) for a break-even on my trade. It's a slightly bitter pill to swallow after seeing all the enthusiasm and lengthly lines at the Apple store over the weekend. Had I gotten out above 356 today, it would've been a nice, small profit. Sure, AAPL might finish above 353 by day's end, but it's a struggle against mammoth selling pressure. Some of the dump-offs are major as traders simply run for the exits in a declining market. Nasdaq is now down 1.14%.
The choice to not sell at 356 or 355 makes this solely my own fault. No conspiracy theories here. Maybe too much optimism considering the weakness today in the market. It's too bad. I hadn't been this optimistic in some time, but a sell at 355+ would've been a healthy and balanced response. There will be other opportunities to re-enter, just probably not this morning.
Update, 5:30 am (Hawaii). AAPL went north of 353 for a few minutes, but is now back at 352.59. 27% of my watch list is green, 70% red, as lopsided as it's been this morning. Nasdaq down 1.18%. What's worked this morning?
TVIX 50.19 +7.8%, TSO 25.82 +5.3%, TZA 43.02 +4.2%, VXX 34.25 +3.7%, QID 54.20 +1.9%, EDZ 21.79 +1.6%.
Precious metals a mixed bag. PHYS and SLV are up. GLD is up. But PAAS and SLW (-2.5%) are down.
Zero Hedge: Precious metals morning summary (Mar 14 2011)
The US market is handling things fairly well, all things considered. Possibly, the weekend gave traders a chance to digest all the suffering abroad. While the Japanese deal with nuclear meltdowns and demolished towns, Saudi Arabia has increased its military presence in Bahrain. Those guys ain't foolin' around for a second. Is it bullish or bearish for oil? I think oil will be capped primarily by the Fed in one way or another. Four-dollar gasoline cannot be allowed to prevail for very long, so going long UCO here is something I will not do.
Meanwhile, iPad 2 sales are big time from what I've seen here in Honolulu, and the lines across America were outlandish. Great strategy by Apple, as usual, to prevent pre-orders, thus stirring up traffic and buzz in malls everywhere.
AAPL shares, which were down to 350 in pre-premarket a few hours ago (out of reach for peons like me), are now trading at 354 and climbing. My watch list was as low as 30% green, but is now 34% with 49% red. Lots can happen before the opening bell, but all things considered, the market is giving Apple its due. If there is no announcement about iPad 2 sales at some point today, that might spur a mini-selloff, but no matter what, the numbers will be robust.
Update, 5:13 am (Hawaii). Market vs. AAPL? Market wins, at least for now. Though AAPL is up fractionally, it has been all lower lows since topping 356 after the opening bell. I got out at 352.79 (stop loss) for a break-even on my trade. It's a slightly bitter pill to swallow after seeing all the enthusiasm and lengthly lines at the Apple store over the weekend. Had I gotten out above 356 today, it would've been a nice, small profit. Sure, AAPL might finish above 353 by day's end, but it's a struggle against mammoth selling pressure. Some of the dump-offs are major as traders simply run for the exits in a declining market. Nasdaq is now down 1.14%.
The choice to not sell at 356 or 355 makes this solely my own fault. No conspiracy theories here. Maybe too much optimism considering the weakness today in the market. It's too bad. I hadn't been this optimistic in some time, but a sell at 355+ would've been a healthy and balanced response. There will be other opportunities to re-enter, just probably not this morning.
Update, 5:30 am (Hawaii). AAPL went north of 353 for a few minutes, but is now back at 352.59. 27% of my watch list is green, 70% red, as lopsided as it's been this morning. Nasdaq down 1.18%. What's worked this morning?
TVIX 50.19 +7.8%, TSO 25.82 +5.3%, TZA 43.02 +4.2%, VXX 34.25 +3.7%, QID 54.20 +1.9%, EDZ 21.79 +1.6%.
Precious metals a mixed bag. PHYS and SLV are up. GLD is up. But PAAS and SLW (-2.5%) are down.
Zero Hedge: Precious metals morning summary (Mar 14 2011)
Saturday, March 12, 2011
iPad 2 rockin' and rollin'
Hate it or love it, the iPad 2 is causing a stir and crowding malls from Maine to Honolulu. The Apple store at Ala Moana Shopping Center here in Honolulu was ridiculously busy. Even after the launch at 5 p.m., a line out the door wrapped around nearby Macy's late into the night.
I'm still not a buyer of the magical product. Don't need it. But more power to those who enjoy it. I did play with it in the store and it is amazingly thin. Great feel. As a trader, it made me feel fine about opening a position Friday afterhours, but it's a long time until Monday's opening bell. Risk is something I try to manage. Emotions, too. The time it took to check out the store and the crowd — and the devotion of Appleholics — and it makes a difference for a so-so Apple fan like me. Sure, I've used Apple stuff for several years, but I still never owned an iPod, iPhone, iTouch or iPad.
Guess you could call it research. Or just fun.
Update, Saturday, 12:24 am (Hawaii). Did a Twitter search of "iPad 2" a few hours ago. Since then, there have been 2,600+ tweets. Insanity!
Here's some updated weekend reading
Fortune: Video: Walking the longest iPad 2 line (Mar 12 2011)
CNET: iPad 2 ship times reach 3 to 4 weeks (Mar 12 2011)
Cult of Mac: Apple store sends message to earthquake victims in Japan (Mar 12 2011)
Cult of Mac: Yellow tint redux, my iPad 2 backlight is bleeding (Mar 12 2011)
T3: Apple iPad 2 review (Mar 13 2011)
TUAW: What if you had brought AAPL stock instead of Apple products? (Mar 11 2011)
I'm still not a buyer of the magical product. Don't need it. But more power to those who enjoy it. I did play with it in the store and it is amazingly thin. Great feel. As a trader, it made me feel fine about opening a position Friday afterhours, but it's a long time until Monday's opening bell. Risk is something I try to manage. Emotions, too. The time it took to check out the store and the crowd — and the devotion of Appleholics — and it makes a difference for a so-so Apple fan like me. Sure, I've used Apple stuff for several years, but I still never owned an iPod, iPhone, iTouch or iPad.
Guess you could call it research. Or just fun.
Update, Saturday, 12:24 am (Hawaii). Did a Twitter search of "iPad 2" a few hours ago. Since then, there have been 2,600+ tweets. Insanity!
Here's some updated weekend reading
Fortune: Video: Walking the longest iPad 2 line (Mar 12 2011)
CNET: iPad 2 ship times reach 3 to 4 weeks (Mar 12 2011)
Cult of Mac: Apple store sends message to earthquake victims in Japan (Mar 12 2011)
Cult of Mac: Yellow tint redux, my iPad 2 backlight is bleeding (Mar 12 2011)
T3: Apple iPad 2 review (Mar 13 2011)
TUAW: What if you had brought AAPL stock instead of Apple products? (Mar 11 2011)
Friday, March 11, 2011
Weekend reading
Japanese tsunami: Donate to Red Cross (Mar 11 2011)
Newsmax: Japan on 'Path of Core-Melt' nuclear accident (Mar 11 2011)
Apple Insider: AT&T reportedly shipping iPad 2 with delivery with delivery as early as Monday (Mar 12 2011)
I Fix It: iPad 2 wi-fi teardown (Mar 11 2011)
Big Picture: Succinct summation of week's events (Mar 11 2011)
Big Picture: Is Twitter worth more than we think (Mar 11 2011)
Big Picture: Kobe Earthquake's impact on the Nikkei and $/Yen (Mar 11 2011)
Engadget: iPad 2 review (Mar 9 2011)
N.Y. Times: Appeal of iPad 2 is a matter of emotions (Mar 9 2011)
Wall Street Journal: iPad 2: Thin, not picture perfect (Mar 10 2011)
Daring Fireball: The iPad 2 (Mar 9 2011)
And now, the time machine observes wacked out iPad reviews of yesteryear
Gizmodo: 8 things that suck about the iPad (Jan 27 2010*)
MarketWatch: Apple's 'revolutionary' iPad leaves fans wanting (Jan 29 2010*)
Bloomberg: Apple iPhone will fail in a late, defensive move: Matthew Lynn (Jan 15 2007*)
Newsmax: Japan on 'Path of Core-Melt' nuclear accident (Mar 11 2011)
Apple Insider: AT&T reportedly shipping iPad 2 with delivery with delivery as early as Monday (Mar 12 2011)
I Fix It: iPad 2 wi-fi teardown (Mar 11 2011)
Big Picture: Succinct summation of week's events (Mar 11 2011)
Big Picture: Is Twitter worth more than we think (Mar 11 2011)
Big Picture: Kobe Earthquake's impact on the Nikkei and $/Yen (Mar 11 2011)
Engadget: iPad 2 review (Mar 9 2011)
N.Y. Times: Appeal of iPad 2 is a matter of emotions (Mar 9 2011)
Wall Street Journal: iPad 2: Thin, not picture perfect (Mar 10 2011)
Daring Fireball: The iPad 2 (Mar 9 2011)
And now, the time machine observes wacked out iPad reviews of yesteryear
Bloomberg Businessweek: Apple's hard iPad sell (Feb 5 2010*)
Orange County Web Design Blog: Apple iPad is an iFailure (Jan 27 2010*)Gizmodo: 8 things that suck about the iPad (Jan 27 2010*)
MarketWatch: Apple's 'revolutionary' iPad leaves fans wanting (Jan 29 2010*)
Bloomberg: Apple iPhone will fail in a late, defensive move: Matthew Lynn (Jan 15 2007*)
Pacific tension
Sendai, Japan
6:44 am (Hawaii). Twelve hours ago, I was anticipating the ME Day of Rage, iPad 2 debut and the specter of a sliding market. Since then, it's been all about the devastating 8.9 magnitude earthquake and aftershocks, and the destructive series of tsunami in Japan. In the islands, we had an 11 pm earthquake on the Big Island, where volcanic activity has returned recently, and a 3 am watch for a potential tsunami due to the Japan quake. No major tsunami hit, but the tension was unprecedented.
When a 1946 tsunami hit the islands, there was absolutely no warning, no Pacific-wide system. Since the 1960s, things changed and the system was built out. But the fear of destruction drove people into stores to stock up on food. They lined up by the hundreds at the gas pumps in the middle of the night. It was good business for those merchants, of course.
Haven't kept track of the market open, but AAPL has bounced off the 345 level (again) and was trading at 348+. I wonder if the local malls and Apple stores will be open by 5 pm, when the world's favorite toy will be unveiled.
Update, 7:01 am (Hawaii). So, the Day of Rage has arrived and crude oil is down. I'm glad I stayed in 100% cash all week. There were potential winners along the way of domestic equities wreckage. But there were also a lot of deceptive plays, from silver to crude.
Watching video of the destruction of Japan last night, I saw a refinery belching flames hundreds of feet into the sky. Didn't even think ahead to the possibility of US refiners benefiting from the situation, and some are now up 5% and more.
Some of yesterday's bearish plays, like TZA and EDZ, are in the red today. Both nosedived in the past hour-plus while the markets have spiked up. SPY and QQQQ are soaring.
Sendai, Japan
While crude slipped and UCO waffled in the red today, silver bounced just as Le Fly and his PPT predicted. I try not to think of silver and silver stocks (and ETFs) as something that can really be appreciated by charts, there's no question that traders have turned silvery stuff into toys and vehicles for profit. So it will be subject to "overbought" and "oversold" labels like NFLX or BP or AAPL.
As I mentioned before, UCO or silver will play a role in trading for me as a hedge of sorts for a long position like AAPL. Question is whether I open a position as a hedge before afterhours trading ends in an hour. I wonder if the tipping point is already here in crude. The Saudis have squashed feeble protestors — the kind who aren't literally hungry and pissed the way the mobs in Egypt and Libya were/are. They've given citizens free money in addition to a relatively enabled life already in the Kingdom of Saud. Anything can happen this weekend, but with that regime in control and military powers closing in on Libya, the odds of crude price slipping away are shrinking. I never believed the Fed would allow crude to get much higher, more so now than ever. I know I could be wrong, but if I don't hedge over the weekend, I won't fret.
Update, 3:01 pm (Hawaii). No hedge, just long AAPL.
AAPL, 1 year, daily
Touch the 50-day MA = Midas touch?
N.Y. Times: Even mobsters-turned-ranchers like silver bullion (Mar 11 2011)
Washington Times: Utah legislature goes for gold, silver as currency options (Mar 11 2011)
Turd Ferguson: Another up week in silver (Mar 11 2011)
The News: iPad 2 finally hits shops in U.S. (Mar 11 2011)
Slash Gear: NYC student first in line for iPad 2, sells spot for $900 (Mar 11 2011)
CNBC/Kudlow Report: Nuclear officials have lost control of 2 plants in Japan (Mar 11 2011)
L.A. Times: Japan trying to prevent meltdown at nuclear plant (Mar 11 2011)
The Australian: 'No health hazard' as evacuation call goes out (Mar 11 2011)
Gideon Rachman: A history of Japan's earthquakes (Mar 11 2011)
The Age: Saudi protests 'tempest in teacup' - Prince Alwaleed (Mar 11 2011)
AP: 'Tightening noose' on Gadhafi (Mar 11 2011)
Business Journal: Analysts see 600,000 iPad debut sales (Mar 11 2011)
TUAW: iPad now available online (Mar 11 2011)
Honolulu Star-Advertiser: Tsunami damage reported at Keehi (Mar 11 2011)
Reuters: Hawaii orders evacuations (Mar 11 2011)
Associated Press: Thousands roam Tokyo streets, stations after quake (Mar 11 2011)
Friday, March 4, 2011
Weekend reading
Weekend reading
CNN Money: From Guns N' Roses bassist to money manager (Mar 4 2011)
Zero Hedge: Silver shorts bloodbath (Mar 4 2011)
Trader Dan: Trying to solve the silver COT mystery (Mar 4 2011)
Salt Lake Tribune: Utah House stamps gold, silver as legal tender (Mar 4 2011)
John Embry: Gold to $1,650, shorts to get crushed (Mar 4 2011)
Clyde Prestowitz: 2011: Waiting for the global economic tsunami (Mar 1 2011)
Jason Hommel (podcast): Here's why silver is headed to $500 per ounce (Mar 3 2011)
Kitco: Gold, silver seen strengthening next week (Mar 4 2011)
Big Gold: How safe is your physical gold? (Mar 4 2011)
Motley Fool: Silver Wheaton, the most profitable company in the world (Mar 4 2011)
Apple (video): Keynote iPad 2 presentation w/ Steve Jobs (Mar 2 2011)
Saturday, February 26, 2011
Weekend library
Isn't it just a bit funny that the word library begins with the prefix 'lie'? Are we subject at a young age (and old) to a bunch of deadwood pages pressed neatly, numbered and simply, outlandishly full of fibs and untruths? Naah. Anyway...
Weekly Telegram (video): iShares Silver Trust (SLV) scam exposed (Feb 26 2011) "They can change things anytime that they want, change the rules, end the trust."
Jeff Clark: What you need to know about buying silver (Feb 25 2011) "Could (SLW) have a big correction? Well, it recently dropped as much as 28%, but sure ... it could easily fall more than that in a major correction. But if that happened, I'd consider it a big buying opportunity."
Jason Schwarz: 6 investment ideas for the Libyan market correction (Feb 23 2011) On AAPL: "Tuesday's selloff began with what has turned out to be a bogus, hedge fund rumor suggesting the iPad 2 was facing production delays. ...We anticipate Apple will hit $370 sometime prior to the iPad (2) release in April, getting the chance to buy at $350 is good ... $345 would be even better and ... below $340 would be a gift."
Philip Elmer-DeWitt: What the new MacBook Pros mean to Apple's bottom-line (Feb 25 2011) "...every 100,000 extra units adds 2 cents to Q2's EPS."
Philip Elmer-DeWitt: The MacBook Pros have landed (Feb 24 2011) "Although some critics are already complaining about the 13-inch models 1280 x 800 screen — lower-res than the 13-inch MacBook Air — we suspect that at $1,199 the entry-level MacBook Pro is going to sell like the proverbial hotcakes."
Philip Elmer-DeWitt: Apple issues March 2 invitations (Feb 23 2011) "...the cryptic reference is to what many are calling the Year of the Tablet."
Apple Insider: Apple may surprise with near immediate availability of iPad 2 next week (Feb 25 2011) "In less than a year, the iPad has rapidly grown from what was once thought to be a niche product into an asset that's on the verge of generating 20% of Apple's business..."
Jesse's Cafe Americain: Bear raid confirmed and silence of the lambs (Feb 25 2011) "The raid (of silver) yesterday ... was a cheap, tawdry affair... With the volume drying up in the markets making one's quota on the trade desks must be getting increasingly difficult."
Red Run Hot: Silver retraces entire post-crude margin-hike loss (Feb 25 2011) "...even in a tight liquidity regime, most investors now prefer to pursue commodities as an investment class..."
Turd Ferguson: Yesterday's BS selloff (Feb 25 2011) "The Evil Empire, led by the commodity desk of JP Morgan, screwed many again yesterday. Period."
King World News: Royal Canadian Mint now saying it's difficult securing silver (Feb 24 2011) "...you are going to see the premiums go up in order to secure silver. ...some players will be priced out of the market. ...there are a lot of issues going forward and this may be the new norm."
Red Run Hot: Rumor: Blythe rigging MAR SI contract (Jan 16 2011) "Guess what Blythe? Your former traders are advising everyone they know to put on this trade come the first week of February."
Bullion Bulls Canada: The myth of the 'primary silver mine' (date n/a) "...it is obviously necessary to classify mines according to revenues rather than tonnages. However, the fact that analysts in this sector never take the time to make their own reasoning explicit in this regard has caused them to misinterpret this data."
Bullion Bulls Canada: The Bullion Bulls basket (date n/a) - Favorite PM stocks from Chad McNamara, Brian Boutillier, Jeff Nielson.
Bullion Bulls Canada: Bullion confiscation: Paranoia or justified fear? (date n/a) "(Silver) is of great importance to both consumer and commercial markets. ... both global inventories and stockpiles of silver are nearly totally exhausted. Thus, we have in the silver market something which is entirely absent in the gold market: a legitimate motive for confiscating silver. ... (we have) not joined the growing internet clamor to 'take down JP Morgan.' To those parties who are actively crusading on this issue, I would hope they take the time to seriously evaluate the consequences of their actions."
Jeff Nielson: Silver Wheaton: The safe alternative to SLV (Sept 21 2009) "What is really attractive about Silver Wheaton is that it completely eliminates the risk of rising production costs eating into profits. Silver Wheaton has no production costs." (Worth a re-read.)
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