Showing posts with label Potash. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Potash. Show all posts

Thursday, August 23, 2007

Promoted: No denying Potash

I thought Potash was a great company but heading in a downward spiral sooner or later. I just don't trust this whole ethanol industry stuff, not with oil prices dropping and farmers relying on subsidies, which in turn go into Potash's coffers.

Fertilizer. I just can't deny it any more. Ethanol seems about ready to stay, and Potash makes great fertilizer. I can't hold a grudge. Potash deserves an A- rating, not a B+. Here's a look at the Q2 numbers.

• P/E 33, forward P/E 21, PEG 2.38
• Profit margin: 20.1%
• Operating margin 28%
• Return on equity 22.9%
• Quarterly revenue growth (yoy) 47.9%
• Quarterly earnings growth (yoy) 63%
• Operating cash flow $1.4 billion
• Levered free cash flow $620 million

The only negative is total debt ($1.4 billion) while total cash is $449 million. But it is manageable with so much growth and revenue coming in.

Interestingly enough, I read a month or so ago that phosphorus supply is in decline and the world might be out of the stuff in 50 years. Phosphorus is used in fertilizer, so this is a potentially killer problem. No kidding.

Guess what? Phosphorus is plentiful in human urine. The first Co to develop phosphorus out of the wee-wee on a huge scale gets kudos from me. Or maybe I'll develop the concept, build a Co and go public. Name: Liquid Gold. Ticker: PEEE.

Potash will probably beat me to it.

Friday, August 3, 2007

B+ picks slide, but Potash still rising

The B+ gang of picks is holding up fairly well, but that's like saying there were survivors of the Titanic. Fortunately, no lives are being lost in today's market, no matter how bloody.

With Dow Jones down 281 points (2.1%) and Nasdaq off 64 points (2.5%), five of the B+ picks were down more than 3%. Flowserve (FLS) sank 4.7% to $68.87 after announcing that it would sell its Swiss manufacturing facility.

HDFC Bank (HDB) of India was down 4.5% to $81.71. No bad news. Just a big bank being hit hard like all the financials. Whether the credit issue pertains to India is another question.

Darling International (DAR) got an upgrade on Monday, but sold down with the rest of the market. DAR closed at $8.03, down 4%.

China Medical Parts (CMED) and CNOOC Ltd. (CEO) were hit by U.S. volatility, as well. No bad news for either company, which could make CNOOC extremely attractive. With a P/E of 11 and return on equity of 34%, I admit it. I'm tempted.

Of the 13 B+ picks, five are in the green. Potash (POT) continues to trade like an internet bubble stock. The fertilizer company is up another 1.9% to $85,35. When I took notice of Potash a few months back, it was at $210 (pre-3 for 1 split) and it look overpriced. Wrong. I was wrong. As long as agriculture is hot, so it will be with the big POT.

SanDisk (SNDK), Focus Media (FMCN) and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) are also up. SNDK had a great earnings report a couple of weeks ago, but has pulled back from its recent high of $62. SNDK is trading at $53.43, up 1.6% for the day.

FMCN is up on no news, but the stock has been hammered in the past month since the Co asked Nasdaq for a hearing regarding two letters from a short seller. FMCN traded up 1.1% to $39.82, well off its high of $52.

Thursday, July 26, 2007

Bear-busters far and few in between today

Good night, we're seeing red today.

Well, mostly red. There were a few stocks that held their own despite a 311-point shaving of the Dow Jones (-2.2%) and 48-point slice out of the Nasdaq (-1.8%).

CROX obviously stomped all over shorts (32% of the float) and bears with gigantic earnings report. The stock closed at $49.25 yesterday and has soared as high as $59.25 in today's extended hours. Currently at $58.20.

AAPL pared back a bit from yesterday's after-hours trading, but is still up for the day more than 6% at $146.05 in extended hours. Is Apple a buy here? It's a tantilizing question for longs who want more and sideliners waiting for a pullback. No question there are still doubters regarding the iPhone and it's first-generation flaws. Just how many iPhones will sell in Q3 is an issue that may be made moot if Mac sales continue to shock.

BIDU is down to $207.11 in after-market trading after closing the regular session with a 14% gain to $209.06. Of course, the stock isn't quite where it was in yesterday's extended hours ($220), but it's still a mammoth move from a low of $175 earlier in the week.

NTDOY.PK continues to mirror the movement of the Co's stock in Tokyo. For a second day in a row, shares leaped higher after astronomical growth numbers were released by Nintendo yesterday morning. NTDOY.PK closed today at $62 even (up 2.6%), another all-time high. If the Co can truly increase production of its Wii, the stock could go to infinity and beyond.

Some other winners today were: Focus Media, up 1.1% to $41.64; Potash, up 1.4% to $78.37; International Exchange, up 1.8% to $146.34.

It's good to see some of my A- and B+ picks stay green today, but what matters more is which of those that went red are pulling back to more buyable levels.

Pupule Paul is a bit long AAPL, BIDU, CROX, FMCN and NTDOY.PK.