Mumbles Monday

Dow Jones 10.138.52 -5.29 -0.05%
NASDAQ 2,220.65 -2.83 -0.13%
S&P 500 1,074.57 -2.19 -0.20%

It was an almost perfect correlation, parallel, whatever ... I crashed out at 3 am Hawaii time. Market opened at 3:30. I got up at 9:15 am, 45 minutes before the close. Two months ago, I was up most nights and stayed up through the session. Now, I just enough a great night's rest. Humidity and heat, I can deal with. Rather have 80 degrees and wake up where I am than anywhere else in the world. I don't need to imagine the price and value of that.

As for the market, it's a pile of crap, which is not unusual for this time of year. This week, with Q2 ending on Wednesday, could've been a crazed buying spree by fund managers for window dressing purposes. Instead, it seems even the robots have left the office, packed up the robot wife and robot kids and headed to vacation nirvana.

TECH KINGS
AAPL gained 0.60% to 268.30, off its high on news that 1.7 million iPhone 4s sold over the weekend. That's not including the units that would've been sold if Apple had more in stock. AAPL is trading at the same level now — with all the news about iPads and the new iPhone — that it did on the blockbuster earnings report just 3 months ago. 265-270 was the old high. Now it's the old low.

I want shares at 260 or lower. Won't happen now unless the global market collapses, and that's a real possibility.

BIDU dropped 2.18% to 74.44 and GOOG lost 0.18% to 472.08.

CHINA & HEAVY METAL
FXI lost 0.53% to 40.96 as metals melted down. FCX slipped 2.87% (64.66) and US Steel (X) dropped 3.91% to 41.55. My guess: fund managers took their recent profits, locked them in for Q2 and got ready for vacation.

Recent high flyer PKX gave back 2.3% and fell to 101.13. Not a good start to the week for steelers.

EURO ZONE
FXE declined 0.90% to 122.33 while UUP (US Dollar) gained 0.52% to 24.96. That's a combo that usually spells losses in the US stock market.

FINANCIALS
GS (136.69 -2.15%) pulled back while C (4.00 +1.52%) gained. Banco Santander was flat (11.01 -0.36%). IRE dropped 2.16% to 3.62. For entertainment purposes, NBG lost 0.89% to 2.23. It's awfully hard to feel bullish about a bank in a nation like Greece, where people feel entitled to work 2.2 hours a week and retire from "toxic" jobs like hairdressing at the hearty age of 23 years old. (I kid and exaggerate.)

Maybe when NBG shares dip below 1.50 I'll grab a few.

US ENERGY
USO (US Oil Fund ETF) lost 1.26% to 35.21 while SCO (UltraShort Crude Oil) gained 2.42% (14.19).

A decline in oil gave the natural gas sector reason to resume selling. Just three of my Nat Gas 40 gained today, including CLNE. As a group, they lost 2.08% today. Since Obama's clean-energy speech four weeks ago, the 40 are up only 2.63% now. Former leader WPRT is up 12.32%, but that's a far cry from its 30% gain just two weeks ago.

No catalyst in sight for this industry.

Solar was relatively flat. First Solar (FSLR) was down 0.03% to 119.23. Trina Solar (TSL), a hot mover last week, lost 0.82% and fell to 18.18.

CHINA ENERGY
PetroChina (114.46 -0.56%) and CNOOC (176.64 +0.80%) are interesting in this sense: it is CNOOC (CEO) that has been active because it's in acquisitive mode. Opportunism, i.e. grabbing any piece of BP it can get, has gained the sector's attention.

Solar play Yingli Green Energy lost 1.97% (10.47).

SAFE PLAYS
GLD (121.09 -1.36%) and TLT (99.98 +0.94) went in opposite directions today. TLT (20-year Treasury Bonds) has based here (95-100) since mid-May. Longer the base, bigger the pop. Or drop.

SLV (18.38 -1.55%) gave back some of its recent gains.

HEDGES

VXX collected 1.66% to 28.18. The big move came at 10 am Eastern, and it sold off on news from Capitol Hill regarding the possible failure of the financial reform bill. But VXX still finished with a gain. Bulls on pins and needles. 

FAZ gained 2.85% to 15.23. Holding these two overnight is hazardous.

I've been 100% cash for a few weeks and I'm content to admire the fluidity and success of geniuses of Le Fly and StockGuy22. 

Frazzled Friday

Dow Jones 10,143.81 -8.99 -0.09%
NASDAQ 2,223.48 +3.07 +0.29%
S&P 500 1,076.76 +3.07 +0.29%

Reform is good, but it is no cure and it clearly isn't the catalyst in itself. Today's session was in the green most of the way, but sold off toward the close and essentially closed flat. Sectors that benefited from today's final financial reform bill work on Capitol Hill were (of course) financials and, you guessed it, Chinese energy.

FINANCIALS
Goldman Sachs gained 4.68% to 139.66, capping a nice move from 133 earlier in the week. The intraday high was 140.90. Citigroup closed at 3.94 (+4.23%) after a spooky descent the past few days.

Big winners were buyers of FAS (22.80 +7.17%).

EURO ZONE
FXE traded up (123.44 +0.47%) while the US Dollar (UUP) lost 0.56% (24.83).

Euro banks benefited from the finreg bill. Banco Santander, like their successful national team, finished up (11.05 +1.66%). IRE (3.70 +1.93%) also rose, though NBG fell (2.25 -1.32%).

CHINA ENERGY
With BP selling off chunks of fine, moneymaking operations, entities like CNOOC (CEO) are swooping in. CEO gained 1.93% to 175.24 while PetroChina (PTR) moved up 0.50% to 115.10.

Chinese solar plays are hot again, probably new festering ground for traders who banked big gains in US natural gas stocks the past few weeks. Trina Solar (TSL) had a big bump of 4.09% to 18.33 after landing a deal with the University of Queensland (Australia).

Yingli Green Energy (YGE) gained 3.89% to 10.68, riding the sector's momentum.

US ENERGY
The rise of crude oil to $78/barrel is helping solar plays back in the US. First Solar (FSLR) picked up 2.04% to 119.26. Solar is still "expensive" in the sense that it can't survive without federal subsidies for the most part. Solar will climb as crude prices rise. As usual.

Nat Gas had its best day in about a week, reviving in a big way. My list of 40 natty gassers gained a cumulative 2.12%. NGS was the biggest gainer (+7.65% to 16.74) and HERO (2.80 +5.66%) was second.

Two of my favorites, WPRT (16.70 +1.83%) and CLNE (15.97 +3.9%) did fine. So did another play I like, HGT (20.59 +3.05%).

The natty gasser with the biggest gain since Obama's speech is PETD (26.99 +29.57%).

As for oil, BP resumed its tumultuous descent, losing 5.98% to 26.92. Again, the sector traded well, having pruned BP from its collective sentiment. US Oil Fund (ETF) gained 3.69% to 35.66.

SAFE PLAYS
GLD gained 1.2% to 122.90 and TLT was slightly up (99.05 +0.41%).

CHINA & HEAVY METAL
FXI gained 1.01% to 41.18. Copper did well; FCX rocketed 4.93% to 66.57. US Steel rose 2.83% to 43.24. Metals have been so productive lately that the relative volatility shouldn't have scared me away.

TECH KINGS
Hibernation time for AAPL longs. Shares sold off again, as expected, losing 0.86% to 266.70. I'm waiting for a chance to snare shares at 260 or maybe 250.

GOOG lost 0.51% to 472.68. Another buying opportunity may be nearing, though I'm not in a rush. Even with AdMob and Android, GOOG is not as appealing to me as AAPL.

BIDU gained 3.12% to 76.10, arguably the best mover in the sector. They have no real competition in China. Big Brother is on its side. Baidu will not be beaten.

All in all, still 100% cash and no plans to change as the weekend begins. Just a few more days before Q2 ends, so window dressing may be in store as fund managers trample over each other to establish positions. Or not. If the market has another crash soon, I'll be ready.

World Cup Wednesday

Dow Jones 10,434.17 +24.71 +0.24%
NASDAQ 2,307.16 +1.23 +0.05%
S&P 500 1,116.04 +1.43 +0.13%

Anyone like soccer? I have no idea who's going to win the World Cup. It's entertaining to a point, but like those weird kazoo noisemakers that are so popular in South Africa, it will soon pass.

The market was relatively narrow today for the most part. I slept halfway through, strangely not disappointed to see AAPL continue its climb while I watch from the bleachers. Though Apple continues to amaze and I have my doubts about this propped-up market, there are some interesting twists and turns coming as a result of BP's doomsday disaster.

CNOOC (CEO) is a Chinese energy play that I enjoyed watching two, three years ago, but never traded. It remains in a role of little brother to Goliath PetroChina (PTR) in that part of the world known as the Middle Kingdom.

What's interesting about CNOOC now is that it could be in acquisitive mode now that BP is in deep-shit territory. If BP is forced to unload property to raise cash, CNOOC will be ready and willing, according to this story. This is far from breaking news; CEO was at a low of 152 nine days ago and closed today at 173.

Yup, I hear ya. Holy crap.

It's BP's other wells that CNOOC is interested in. It's like breaking up the Yankees, basically. Most major-league teams would be happy to snag A-Rod or Mariano Rivera or Derek Jeter or ... especially at a discount. That makes CEO an interesting watch. I'm not entertaining any notions of buying it here at 173 — already at a 14% gain since June 8. But I'm keeping an eye on it. CEO was listed as a "Buy If" by American Bulls on the candlestick chart reading coming into today's session. With a fractional drop today, CEO is probably still in a near-breakout level.

The market rallied into the close on low volume again, though AAPL had plenty of trading and closed at 271.91 (+1.74%). Shares hit a high of 272.90 early, but dipped below 270 by the end of the first hour of trading. After a rally back near 272, shares fell to 270 before rallying in the final half hour. That kept VXX below 26.00 for the day; it broke above that level briefly before AAPL mounted that late comeback.

US FINANCIALS
Flat, flat, flat. GS up 0.19% to 137.32. C down 0.75% to 3.96. FAZ, the inverse ultra-short ETF, gained just 0.42%.

EURO
STD, which fell flat on its face yesterday, gained 2.45% to 11.27 today. Such a nice move lately after dipping below 10 in recent weeks. There's a lot of confidence in Santander despite mediocre jobs numbers in Espanol. Other Euro banks did not so well. IRE fell 0.96% to 4.14 and NBG dropped 0.81% to 2.45.

The euro (FXE) rose 0.71% to 123.49 while the dollar (UUP) slipped 0.60% to 24.95.

SAFE PLAYS
GLD gained 1.3% to 121.90 and TLT (20-year Treasurys ETF) picked up 0.81% to 97.85.

TECH/INTERNET KINGS
AAPL finished up 1.71% to 271.82 and GOOG was flat (500.08 -0.24%). BIDU lost 3.13% to 72.47

RETAIL/ENTERTAINMENT
NFLX gained 0.91% to 125.80 while CSTR fell 2.32% to 51.29. The momo is gone for CSTR, which rose yesterday on news of a deal with Paramount for early releases of DVDs. CSTR lost almost all its gain intraday yesterday and continues to sell. Below 50 might warrant a closer look.

ENERGY
While BP lost just 0.44% to 31.71, USO (oil ETF) dropped nearly 1% to 35.14, halting a significant run lately.

The Nat Gas sector got hammered for a second day in a row, but gains since Obama's clean energy speech remain massive. UNG bucked the trend and closed at 8.74, a gain of 2.83%. WPRT (18.98 -1.15%) and CLNE (17.28 -1.43%) declined, as did 32 of the 40 on my Natty Gassers list.

WPRT paces that list with a gain of 29.3% in the past two weeks. PQ is up 28.8% and PETD is up 25.1%.

HEAVY METAL
FCX lost 1.82% and FXI dropped 1.17% as copper took a hit. US Steel (X) remained turbulent, losing 2.67% to 44.10. SLV gained nicely (1.38%) to 18.33.

#7 PetroChina

This is a double bottom?


Like CNOOC, I don't see PTR floundering for much longer, not with Big Brother's protection.

#17 CNOOC

Oil and China. Joined at the brain.


Pattern of lower lows and lower highs ended recently. I still think Big Brother won't let CNOOC lose.

Nauseous? Watch the road

The nausea caused by the market tide doesn't mean there aren't some prices worth eyeing. Twenty of the 25 stocks I like are worth a look on the recent downturn.


ISRG starting to look attractive. Just a bit.


MasterCard is falling, too, even though the company is making major profits. I like it here below the 100-day SMA.


First Solar isn't cheap, but it's pretty good here. At worst, it's the leader in solar.


Really, McDonald's shouldn't be this cheap, not with its overseas exposure and growth. The honey mustard snack wrap is my fave. Still addicted to their fries.


Crude oil hit $104 a barrel today, but PetroChina shares are still sluggish.


Disney is a stock worth holding for a long time.


Up and down, down and up. Is Steve Jobs and his creative crew out of fresh ideas? I tend to think not. That's more of a key than whether they sell 10 million iPhones or not.


Really, is Google this bad?


RIMM's a bit pricey here.


I'd buy on these crazy dips if I could. Goldman Sachs at 165, didn't expect it, but it was always a possibility.


Focus Media hasn't proven its potential just yet and it's a bit expensive here.


CNOOC Ltd. is doing fairly well, while its cousin PetroChina is a slug. Go figure. Could be CNOOC's natural gas segment is getting a boost from rising demand.


Crashing hard. Where it bottoms out, who knows?


On discount lately. The CEO says they'll bounce back, just like last year.


Baidu and other China leaders can't get any traction here. Just a matter of time, perhaps, until the Beijing Olympics has an effect.


Nike trading in a range. Spooky here.


Just watching Mr. Softee for now.


China Life Insurance finally leveling out. What do the technical junkies call it? An ascending triangle ... which means it may break out. Or not.


Suntech Power is appealing right here.


There are probably dozens of better stocks than Chipotle right now. But I'm still watching.

Top 25: #18 CNOOC Ltd.

OK, Nigeria is threatening to cut the supply to the U.S. Big boys threatening to cut supply if and when crude falls to $80 per barrel. So how did CNOOC slip 3.6% yesterday? CEO is getting real close to its 200-day SMA. That would be really cheap.

Top 25: #18 CNOOC Ltd.

OK, I just realized that all my graphs have been on a time frame I didn't mean to use (from July on). I prefer a 1-year graph. Oh well. CNOOC's chart will be the only one that is a 1-year. What do I see? I see chaos. I'm staying the hell away. CEO will look attractive at 122. Or 92. I remember liking this stock a LOT at those levels. I was too chicken to jump in back then, still am now.

Moving targets

No kidding. Volatile doesn't begin to describe today's session. Hoku Scientific was up more than 10%, then retraced. Google traded down to 510, climbed back up to 529 and is hovering at 525 now. I picked up GOOG at 529, pondered getting more at 512, but was gun-shy. Then I got more at 526.

I emptied out of RIMM and AAPL. No catalyst ahead for either, and RIMM is among the most abused of all high-growth stocks. For short-term trading, there was no point in being in either anymore. I even sold my NTDOY.PK, which seasonally trades down between January and March.

Microsoft's bid to buy Yahoo has kept today's market slightly positive when it probably was going to sell off. Yahoo could hold out for more than $31 per share, but that would be ballsy on their part. Leverage belongs to MSFT. Yahoo opened at 28-plus, came down to 27-plus, and then returned to 28.32. Is Yahoo a good trade here? Seems that it should be.

Intuitive Surgical has kicked arse today on great earnings, and so has Flowserve. Too pricey now, of course. PetroChina and CNOOC and upstanding today with gains of about 5%. Still trading cheap relative to their moving averages.

Goldman Sachs was hovering at 200 before I took a nap (6 a.m. Hawaii time). Now GS is at 207. Boy, talk about what coulda been easy money. China Mobile is up even though Cramer panned it yesterday. Of my Top 25, only six are in negatoid territory: RIMM, AAPL, BIDU, AMZN, MSFT and GOOG. I still hold on to Google. Good chance it can rebound as it did last July after that earnings report disappointed the street. I don't plan to wait two months, though, for a run.

Top 25: #17 CNOOC Ltd.

CEO 145.29 +2.97 (+2.1%)
50-day SMA: 165.53 | 100-day SMA: 168.06 | 200-day SMA: 136.28
Like PetroChina, CNOOC Ltd. benefits from China's insatiable appetite for crude oil. Like PTR, CEO has the firm backing of the state.

Pupule portfolio

The market is beyond ridiculous now. Bear market? Or just a sharp correction? Whatever the case, here are more additions to the faux portfolio.

AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

AAPL | in at 177.64 (11 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

AAPL | in at 171.25 (18 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 344.31 (6 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

BIDU | in at 345.21 (9 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

CEO | in 167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



CHL | in at 84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08

CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
CHL | in at 85.22 (47 shares) | 40% of position | 1/7/08



CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 123.98 (16 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

CMG | in at 117.87 (25 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

EBAY | in at 32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08

EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08

EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at 30.44 (131 shares) 40% of position | 1/7/08

FLS | in at 90.50 (11 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08

FLS | in at 90.45 (22 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08

FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 56.14 (36 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

FMCN | in at 56.20 (54 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

FWLT | in at 149.94 (7 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08

FWLT | in at 143.49 (14 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08





GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 649.25 (3 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

GOOG | in at 631.68 (5 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

GS | in 214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
ISRG | in at 299.98 (7 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

ISRG | in at 271.73 (11 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

LFC | in 80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
LULU | in at 38.45 (52 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

LULU | in at 36.93 (81 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08



MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08

MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 58.03 (52 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08

MCD | in at 57.08 (70 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08



MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.61 (58 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

MSFT | in at 33.45 (90 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08



NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08

NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 62.11 (48 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08

NKE | in at 61.83 (65 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08

NTDOY.PK | in at 67.00 (15 shares) | 10% of position | 1/8/08

PTR | in 181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
RIMM | in at 99.83 (20 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

RIMM | in at 96.44 (31 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 72.99 (41 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08

VMW | in at 74.50 (53 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08

Pupule portfolio

Includes new additions to the faux portfolio

AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

CEO | in $167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

CHL | in at $84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08

CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

EBAY | in at $32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08

FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

GS | in $214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

LFC | in $80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08

MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08

PTR | in $181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08

Ins and Outs

Jon Najarian says the Fed must act, but even if the Fed were to slash rates, wouldn't they take their sweet ol' time as usual? That's why papertrading is no substitute for the real deal. With my Ins and Outs of the Top 25, it's easy to say, 'Yup, dive in on the cheap stocks today.' It's tempting only in real life. On paper, easily done. AAPL at 180? Deal. RIMM at 103? In.

Worst-case scenario: Fed refuses to act until its end-of-January meeting (if it acts) and the market crashes. Best-case scenario: Fed makes a bold move, earnings reports (which begin on Monday) are more bullish than expected. Market rises.

How bearish has the market become? Last week, only eight of my Top 25 were below their 50-day simple moving averages. yesterday, the number increased to 12. Today? Eighteen. Those of us in cash will reign.

1. AAPL 180.05 -14.88 (-7.6%) | 50-day SMA: 183.26 | 100-day SMA: 164.98
Big money got out of the big growth stocks today. AAPL is below its 50-day SMA for the first time since mid-November. Volume was the biggest since that period, too. MacWorld is around the corner. Inch in.
2. GOOG 657.00 -28.33 (-4.1%) | 50-day SMA: 684.78 | 100-day SMA: 621.23
Interesting price point here. Inch in is fine with an eye on a dip to the 100-day SMA (621). If GOOG falls through 621, it's a horror film in real life.
3. RIMM 103.35 -9.47 (-8.4%) | 50-day SMA: 112.82 | 100-day SMA: 103.10
Unlike AAPL and GOOG, volume in RIMM today wasn't as extreme. That doesn't give RIMM long any semblance of comfort. How can RIMM fall below its pre-earnings price? RIMM blitzed estimate and raised guidance. The patient will be rewarded. When the market recovers, RIMM will be among the rally leaders. Price is nice here to start inching in.
4. ISRG 305.00 -16.75 (-5.2%) | 50-day SMA: 313.95 | 100-day SMA: 271.47
Amazing. ISRG was so far above its moving averages just days ago, and now it's below its 50-day SMA. Inch in, though I think it may pull back to 275 if the Fed does nothing.
5. NTDOY.PK n/a

6. POT 142.65 -4.23 (-2.9%) | 50-day SMA: 123.57
Potash is almost immune to market turbulence and it's not the only fertilizer stock rocking the free world. Too pricey still.
7. CHL 83.88 -1.56 (-1.8%) | 50-day SMA: 89.83 | 100-day SMA: 81.82
Bears are in charge of this great stock. Four of the last six sessions have been down for China Mobile, and those four trading days had big volume compared to the up sessions. I'd continue to inch in here with an eye on 80 as a key support level.
8. PTR 176.00 +5.36 (+3.1%) | 50-day SMA: 199.40 | 100-day SMA: 184.71 | 200-day SMA: 157.72
PetroChina was due for a rally, and with crude oil hovering near $100/barrel, why not now? I started inching into PTR in the Pupule portfolio recently and will continue to do so at these levels. The world will always need oil. China needs oil. OK, maybe alternative energy becomes substantial within five years. That's plenty of time for PTR to run.
9. FSLR 245.58 -20.29 (-7.6%) | 50-day SMA: 215.47 | 100-day SMA: 163.93
Finally, a gap down, and yet, First Solar is miles from any kind of a fair price. Wait.
10. MCD 57.05 -0.88 (-1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 58.61 | 100-day SMA: 55.15
A pullback like this in McDonald's is absolutely stupid. Now 11% down from its recent high, MCD is still selling a ton of latte, a ton of snack wraps (kids love 'em) and basically stealing customers from Starbucks. (A Mickey D and Starbucks were built next to each other recently in Honolulu. Guess which one is always packed and which one is half-empty?) The "Dollar Menu" at McDonald's is BUILT for recessions. Certainly worth inching in here.

11. STP 81.84 -6.38 (-7.2%) | 50-day SMA: 71.64
Buy here? Fuggedaboudit. Today's pullback is a speck of dust compared to this insane run from 45. Wait.
12. CMG 127.01 -14.69 (-10.4%) | 50-day SMA: 135.77 | 100-day SMA: 124.02
Chipotle Mexican Grill is getting cheaper and cheaper. This is a nice price to inch in, but will consumers opt to buy fast, healthy Mexican food rather than the dollar menu at Mickey D's?
13. BIDU 361.00 -14.09 (-3.7%) | 50-day SMA: 367.50 | 100-day SMA: 313.93
After five down days in a row, Baidu is worth inching in here. Still easily capable of falling to support level at 300.
14. FWLT 159.69 -9.48 (-5.6%) | 50-day SMA: 150.46
Recession proof? Possibly. But this price is still too high.
15. FLS 93.20 -2.95 (-3.1%) | 50-day SMA: 91.71
Another stock that thrives in global growth, but pricey here. Wait.

16. FMCN 55.71 -3.27 (-5.5%) | 50-day SMA: 57.00 | 100-day SMA: 52.83
Down big on moderate volume, worth inching in here.
17. GS 199.93 -4.91 (-2.4%) | 50-day SMA: 218.79 | 100-day SMA: 209.50 | 200-day SMA: 212.21
Goldman Sachs is king and emperor of the financials, the Godfather of Greenbacks. And yet, the stock is on thin ice right here; 200 is a key support level. If GS falls through, next stop is 180, and then 160. Inching in is a good idea, but don't dive head first.
18. NKE 61.74 -0.97 (-1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 64.06 | 100-day SMA: 60.86
Fair price, almost good. Six down days in a row, but I like the growing international exposure (China) and commitment.
19. CEO 170.50 +0.66 (+0.4%) | 50-day SMA: 176.57 | 100-day SMA: 159.95
Like PetroChina, CNOOC Ltd. is a state-owned entity in the Middle Kingdom. I missed the boat on CEO twice: once at 91, later at 111. With the latter, the P/E was only 12. Then it ran to 215. Here, CEO is still a fair price, but I'd inch in only. The stock has run up with increasing volume for two days and could be due for a pullback.
20. VMW 80.49 -3.46 (-4.1%) | 50-day SMA: 94.54 | 100-day SMA: 87.04
Dead money for a few weeks now unless you're a short. Nice price for a near-term trade, though. Inching in for the Pupule portfolio with an eye on support at 71.

21. LULU 40.54 -4.22 (-9.4%) | 50-day SMA: 43.95 | 100-day SMA: 42.03
Today's hellacious jobs report casts a bad omen for retailers. Pricey yoga pants ($100/pair) aren't a big priority if and when we head into a recession. But I do think that lululemon athletica's core customers are not affected by layoffs in the financial and homebuilding sectors. LULU's customers will continue to work out, and they will show off the results by purchasing lululemon pants. Women 18-35 will keep on keepin' on. They will keep spending. It's the vanity factor. It works well.
22. MSFT 34.38 -0.99 (-2.8%) | 50-day SMA: 34.65 | 100-day SMA: 31.86
The Halo effect is done. What drives Mister Softee from here? As Sgt. Schultz often said, "I see nothing!" Scaling in here for a near-term trade on the Pupule portfolio.
23. AMZN 88.79 -6.42 (-6.7%) | 50-day SMA: 87.82 | 100-day SMA: 87.19
Another stock, like RIMM, that will lead a market rally if the Fed cuts. Amazon bluntly told the world that unlike other struggling online retailers, its sales were quite fine, thank you. Price is better, but not quite good yet. Wait.
24. EBAY 31.30 -1.54 (-4.7%) | 50-day SMA: 33.51 | 100-day SMA: 35.19 | 200-day SMA: 34.20
If the country is heading for a recession, it will be the eBays of the world that will benefit. Still, the stock took a hit today. Inching in on the Pupule portfolio.
25. LFC 73.00 -1.64 (-2.2%) | 50-day SMA: 83.99 | 100-day SMA: 81.68 | 200-day SMA: 66.44
Does anyone really think life insurance won't work in China? This is a land, as I've mentioned before, where ancestor worship was once the rule. As the middle-agers accumulate wealth, they will put their hard-earned money into life insurance while the younger generation plays the stock market.

On the cusp: Taking a close look this weekend at Costco and Altria as additions to the Top 25.

Pupule portfolio

The faux portfolio moves on. Began inching into MCD, VMW, NKE today. Each with a 10% position (pyramiding). Added more CHL and EBAY (each 20% of position).

Weighted scale of $10,000 per stock
PTR • in $181.72 (55 shares) • 100% of position • 12/24/07
GS • in $214.32 (47 shares) • 100% of position • 12/24/07
CEO • in $167.22 (60 shares) • 100% of position • 12/24/07
LFC • in $80.70 (124 shares) • 100% of position • 12/24/07

CHL • in at $84.65 (12 shares) • 10% of position • 1/2/08
CHL • in at 85.44 (23 shares) • 20% of position • 1/3/08

EBAY • in at $32.49 (30 shares) • 10% of position • 1/2/08
EBAY • in at 32.84 (61 shares) • 20% of position • 1/3/08

MCD • in at 57.93 (17 shares) • 10% of position • 1/3/08
NKE • in at 62.71 (16 shares) • 10% of position • 1/3/08
VMW • in at 83.95 (12 shares) • 10% of position • 1/3/08

I should have remembered to pyramid into PTR, GS, CEO and LFC as they've all declined since Dec. 24. Great stocks cheap. Three important words.

Ins and Outs

Well, well. There are now 12 stocks among my Top 25 that are trading below their simple moving averages. (One is very, very close.) Yesterday, only nine were on the radar.

Buys? Not necessarily. But worth exploring. 

1. AAPL 194.93 • 50-day SMA: 183.39 • Wait
2. GOOG 685.53 • 50-day SMA: 685.16 • Up just 14¢ on lower volume. Wait
3. RIMM 112.82 • 50-day SMA: 113.25 • Fair price, but mediocre volume says this is dead money near term
4. ISRG 321.75 • 50-day SMA: 313.94 • Wait
5. NTDOY.PK 74.55 • 50-day SMA: n/a • Recent 50-day was 73.13. Wait
6. POT 146.88 • 50-day SMA: 122.90 • Wait. It may take almost forever, but wait
7. CHL 85.44 • 50-day SMA: 90.13 • 100-day SMA: 81.52 • Up 79¢ on lower volume. Good price. Inch in and expect a better price
8. PTR 170.64 • 50-day SMA: 201.02 • 100-day SMA: 184.28 • 200-day SMA: 157.38 • Plunging on low volume. Great price. Inch in
9. FSLR 265.87 • 50-day SMA: 213.56 • Wait
10. MCD 57.93 • 50-day SMA: 58.58 • 100-day SMA: 55.05 • Fair price, great earnings, inch in 

11. STP 88.22 • 50-day SMA: 70.94 • 24% over its 50-day SMA. Ridiculous. Wait
12. CMG 141.70 • 50-day SMA: 135.77 • Wait
13. BIDU 375.09 • 50-day SMA: 367.28 • Sideways action since October. CFO's mysterious death doesn't help
14. FWLT 169.17 • 50-day SMA: 150.15 • Big gap up today (4.7%). Wait
15. FLS 96.15 • 50-day SMA: 91.43 • Traded seemingly forever in the 60s and 70s. Pricey now. Wait
16. FMCN 58.98 • 50-day SMA: 57.04 • Wait
17. GS 204.84 • 50-day SMA: 219.26 • 100-day SMA: 209.27 • 200-day SMA: 212.26 • Down 1.3% today. Great price, inch in
18. NKE 62.71 • 50-day SMA: 64.10 • 100-day SMA: 60.80 • Six down days in a row. Fair price, inch in
19. CEO 169.84 • 50-day SMA: 176.96 • 100-day SMA: 159.33 • Fair price, up 1.4% on increased volume
20. VMW 83.95 • 50-day SMA: 94.05 • Fair price, facing stiff competition long term. Inch in for near-term trade only

21. LULU 44.76 • 50-day SMA: 44.29 • Fair price, low volume. Long way from earnings, likely to fall more
22. MSFT 35.37 • 50-day SMA: 34.58 • Wait
23. AMZN 95.21 • 50-day SMA: 88.06 • Wait
24. EBAY 32.85 • 50-day SMA: 33.60 • 100-day SMA: 35.23 • 200-day SMA: 34.21 • Dysfunctional stock, crummy policing of ripoff sellers. PayPal is undeniably strong, though. Great price, horrible volume. Inch in for near-term trade
25. LFC 74.64 • 50-day SMA: 84.57 • 100-day SMA: 81.53 • 200-day SMA: 66.29 • Good price, down five sessions in a row. Inch in

Ins and Outs

Two sessions ago, eight of my favorite 25 stocks showed up on the radar. They had interesting prices. Not all necessarily had entry points to buy. After today's session, there are nine stocks on the radar.

based on closing prices, Jan. 2, 2007
1. AAPL 194 • 50-day SMA: 182 • Wait
2. GOOG 685 • 50-day SMA: 684 • 100-day SMA: 618 • Wait
3. RIMM 113.71 • 50-day SMA: 113.26 • 100-day SMA: 102 • Wait
4. ISRG 323 • 50-day SMA: 313 • Wait
5. NTDOY.PK 73.95 • 50-day SMA: 73.13 • 100-day SMA: 67 • Wait
6. POT 146 • 50-day SMA: 122 • Wait
7. CHL 84 • 50-day SMA: 90 • 100-day SMA: 81 • Good price, could get better • chart
8. PTR 173 • 50-day SMA: 202 • 100-day SMA: 183 • 200-day SMA: 157 • Very good price • chart
9. FSLR 267 • 50-day SMA: 210 • Wait
10. MCD 58.10 • 50-day SMA: 58.51 • 100-day SMA: 54.95 • Fair price, could be cheaper • chart
11. STP 85 • 50-day SMA: 70 • Wait
12. CMG 146 • 50-day SMA: 135 • Wait
13. BIDU 381 • 50-day SMA: 366 • Wait
14. FWLT 161 • 50-day SMA: 149 • Wait
15. FLS 94 • 50-day SMA: 91 • Wait
16. FMCN 57.13 • 50-day SMA: 56.96 • 100-day SMA: 52.50 • Wait
17. GS 207 • 50-day SMA: 219 • 100-day SMA: 209 • 200-day SMA: 212 • Great price, could get better • chart
18. NKE 63.28 • 50-day SMA: 64.11 • 100-day SMA: 60 • Fair price, could be cheaper • chart
19. CEO 167 • 50-day SMA: 177 • 100-day SMA: 158 • Good price, could get better • chart
20. VMW 84 • 50-day SMA: 94 • Good price, could get better • chart
21. LULU 44.82 • 50-day SMA: 44.55 • Wait
22. MSFT 35.22 • 50-day SMA: 34.48 • Wait
23. AMZN 96 • 50-day SMA: 87 • Wait
24. EBAY 32.49 • 50-day SMA: 33.67 • 100-day SMA: 35.26 • 200-day SMA: 34.20 • Great price for a short-term trade • chart
25. LFC 74 • 50-day SMA: 85 • 100-day SMA: 81 • 200-day SMA: 66 • Good price, could get better • chart

As always, the best approach when a good stock dips is to wade in rather than dive headfirst.

> > > Pyramiding into a stock

Pupule Portfolio

With all the market's fluctuations and my little lists of A+ and Top 25 stocks, I'm creating a running faux portfolio for display purposes only. Based on strong fundamentals, accelerating earnings and healthy entry points (referred by simple moving averages), the Pupule Portfolio opens with four Top 25 stocks that traded below 50-day simple moving averages at Monday's close. I'll use weighted scales for each stock ($10,000 each).

PTR • in $181.72 (55.0297 shares) • 12/24/07
GS • in $214.32 (46.6592 shares) • 12/24/07
CEO • in $167.22 (59.8014 shares) • 12/24/07
LFC • in $80.70 (123.9157 shares) • 12/24/07

No. 19 CNOOC: To heaven and hell

PetroChina is the undisputed king of crude oil in China, but CNOOC is its baby brother, the one specializing in off-shore drilling. Both have the backing and protection of the Chinese government. It doesn't get much safer than that. That being said, CNOOC's stock (CEO) has been on a hellacious roller-coaster ride.


















I touted CEO when it was in the 90s, and again in the 110s, with a P/E of just 11. Then it dropped back to the 90s and I missed my chance. I had no idea the price of crude was going to approach 100, no idea that CEO was going for a ride above 210. Holy crap.

CEO is trading below its 50-day SMA, but only those with brass balls will step in here. Can crude make a run at 100? I think so, but without faith to back my belief, I will not act in accordance.

Pupule's Top 25 (Dec. 25)

Up, down, all around since August bottom

I formed a mock portfolio a few months back, not long after realizing that Aug. 16 was the bottom of the initial subprime mortage fiasco. Now, more than three months later, it's easy to see whether the current market is really doing as horribly as the media presents. So here's what I found, comparing the intra-day low of Aug. 16 versus Wedneday's closing prices.

Then versus Now

Apple: then 111, now 168, +50.9%
Amazon: then 70, now 79, +13.8%
Crocs: then 44, now 38, -12.1%
Garmin: then 86, now 91, +5.5%
Research in Motion: then 61, now 111, +80.4%
Baidu: then 161, now 307, +91.2%
CNOOC: then 92, now 159, +71.9%
Chipotle Mexican Grill: then 92, now 123, +34.1%
Flowserve: then 62, now 90, +45.6%
Google: then 480, now 660, +37.5%
Blue Nile: then 71, now 74, +4.4%
Nintendo: then 52, now 69, +33.9%
Under Armor: then 54, now 46, -14.1%

As a whole, with an evenly weighted investment in each of these stocks, they would be 34.1% in the positive. Even with the horrendous selloff of the past two weeks, 34% up isn't bad at all for three months of holding. Doesn't mean I'm going to return to a buy-and-never-sell practice, but the numbers appear to be more healthy than I had imagined. Far more.

Bargain hunting in a nervous market

What is great? What is cheap? Phil Town did it his way, the way he learned from a mentor: buy great companies on the cheap. Of course, we all have different definitions of "great," but we probably can agree on cheap. For me, a bargain has less to do with P/E and more to do with discount, particularly of a growth stock. So, with those notions in mind, here's a look at what's on sale. Or not.

Apple 191.79
On paper: Back in the 90s, 120s and 130s, the stock had longs feeling impatient. After all, when AAPL hit an all-time high of 85, it promptly sunk into the 50s and took 10 months to return to the 80s. That's one hell of a wait. But since breaking out of the 90s with initial news of the newfangled iPhone, the stock has been on a tear. A double in six months is something magnificent. The stock has traded above its 10-day moving averages almost all the time since August.
The skinny: holiday season is upon us, but it is still more than two months until the next earnings report. Can AAPL continue to ramp up without news?
Of course, the best and simplest approach is to buy and hold. My faux buy-Apple-only (monthly) portfolio is nothing but green, green, green.
Pupule says: As much as I love the company and the products, I will wait.

Google 741.79
On paper: Screw paper. This is a "holy shit" stock and has been since mid-September, when GOOG traded at 520. The stock is well above its 10-day moving averages. There is not much to be said for a stock that has traded up nearly every day for two months. The news keeps coming out, good, great and peerless.
The skinny: The good news won't be endless, and there will be a pullback sooner or later. Then again, this stock sat at 460-500 for such a long time that those of us who passed on GOOG (me) deserve to suffer as fans on the sidelines.
Pupule says: Wait. Do not chase.

Intuitive Surgical 317.07
On paper: This was below 140 three months ago. Holy crud. The stock is trading below its 10-day SMA (320.79), but above its 10-day EMA (311.38).
The skinny: Cramer helped move the stock with his "buy-buy-buy!" directive a couple of weeks ago. Until major buying volume returns, ISRG is too hot to handle.
Pupule says: Wait.

Research in Motion 131.64
On paper: Upgrades and hype, like Citigroup's new label as the "best stock of 2008" don't hurt. The stock is far above its moving averages.
The skinny: RIMM is one of the very few stocks I feel comfortable viewing as a long-term hold. It is also a stock that moves in boxes (re: Nicolas Darvas), which makes it attractive as a trading vehicle.
Pupule says: Until there is a kryptonite for RIMM, it is almost a "can't lose" stock. Still, best to wait until it comes down below its moving averages, hopefully some time in this decade.

Baidu 407.70
On paper: Far above its moving averages. Frothy.
The skinny: No news to lift it any further. BIDU has gone straight up from 310 to 430 (Tuesday) without a breather.
Pupule says: Wait, wait, wait.

China Life Insurance 92.98
On paper: The China selloff hit LFC in a nice way. At 92, it is trading at the same levels it did at the end of September. A bargain? Relatively, yes, for a stock that has doubled in six months. Trades well below its 10-day EMA (95.78) and SMA (97.16).
The skinny: I always thought of LFC as a "safe" play but had no idea it would explode. All of the more sedate sectors seem to explode in China thanks to the influx of new arrivals to the growing middle class. Family-oriented societies are going to invest in life insurance, no ifs, ands or buts.
Pupule says: A fair buy here. Still down 13% from it's all-time high.

China Mobile 92.06
On paper: stock hit 104 on Oct. 29, more than double since Aug. 16. The recent selloff brought the stock below 90, and it had a moderate comeback on Tuesday to 92. Still below its 10-day averages (EMA 95.26, SMA 98.01). Nowhere close to its 50-day EMA (83.78) and SMA (81.96).
The skinny: The stock has bounced off every gap down since the August low.
Pupule says: Yeah, I got out at 87 the other day, but this a classic red chip stock on sale — 16% off its high. Buy.

Chipotle Mexican Grill 131.88
On paper: CMG is down from its all-time high of 141, now touching its 10-day EMA (131.71) and under its 10-day SMA (132.31).
The skinny: The stock has run to two new highs in the past month, but volume really kicked up on the second leg up. Is there another leg left? Dunno.
Pupule says: Wait. Yesterday's volume was very weak, and it's a big if whether there are still more buyers out there than sellers.

CNOOC Ltd. 190.03
On paper: After hitting 218 on Halloween, CEO has sold off and now trades below its 10-day moving averages.
The skinny: Crude is at its all-time highs, which means the weakness in the stock right now is not a happy signal. After doubling in less than three months, the stock could be in for a long stretch of consolidation.
Pupule says: I loved this stock in the 90s, but didn't have the foresight to buy at a P/E of 11. Anyone with insights about this stock, please chime in.

PetroChina 229.42
On paper: Like CNOOC, PetroChina has tumbled as quickly as it spiked. After running from 190 to 266 in just five sessions (mid-October), PTR went stagnant, then dropped on Monday. It trades below its 10-day moving averages (EMA 239, SMA 244).
The skinny: Do you trust a state-owned sector leader that is charged with geopolitical undercurrents? If so, then this is your cup of tea.
Pupule says: The price screams buy. Buying PTR and/or CEO almost feels (I imagine) like buying a piece of the mob. They won't be defeated, and you'll never really get a clean look at their books. I'm not picky that way. I wish I'd been long PTR and CEO all along.

VMware 110.04
On paper: After debuting at 50 in mid-August, the stock has risen as high as 150%. VMW is down 12% from its high of 125, now below its 10-day EMA (112.89). Four down days in a row with shrinking volume is a good sign for longs.
The skinny: Virtualization. Dominance. Most likely to succeed? Probably.
Pupule says: For VMW groupies, this is clearly a buy. For bargain hunters, worth waiting more. At 110, the stock is at a pivotal point. Market gyrations could give us a cheaper price. Those of us who pass on VMW will be lamenting our ineptitude when it hits 300 in one year. Just my little guesstimate.