Turnover Thursday

Dow Jones 10,152.80 -145.64 -1.41%
NASDAQ 2,217.42 -36.81 -1.63%
S&P 500 1,073.69 -18.35 -1.68%

Regulations, schmegulations. There's no doubt that without turmoil from Capitol Hill, the Eurozone, the Gulf and iPhone 4 buyers planetwide, the market would be just fine and dandy. (RIMM is collapsing after hours due to a so-so earnings report.)

The pullback was expected from a technical perspective. Is a further drop coming? With Q2 coming to a lose in less than a week, I'm not so sure fund managers will stay completely out. If they get scared and refuse to dip their toes back into the oil-infested waters, that'll be a surprise to some extent.

I'll still wait for selling pressure in AAPL to wane before I walk into that territory. To the brave who grabbed VXX shares below 25 and 26 recently, bravo. When AAPL draws down, VXX pops 99% of the time.

Overall, though, the market was simply red.

TECH KINGS
AAPL wavered between 269 and 272 on the day of its iPhone 4 release. Shares closed at 269.69, down 0.73%, or 10 bucks less than its all-time high last week. Signal issues with the new phone could sit on AAPL for a few days, which makes it a buying opportunity, maybe. I'd rather just wait.

GOOG petered out and lost 1.44% to 475.10. Entry point is looking better all the time now. I might just wait for the first report of mobile ad sales before I test Google waters.

BIDU lost 3.14% to 73.80 after beating down bears for several days.

FINANCIALS
GS (134.98 -0.07%) and C (3.78 -2.83%) facing issues thanks to legislators. I haven't liked finnies for months precisely because of this kind of uphill battle. Fuck it. Too much work, too much pain involved. Unless GS hits 100 and C swoons to 3.00. Then I won't resist.

EURO ZONE
FXE up 0.14% (122.86), which normally is good for the US market. UUP (US dollar) was flat at 28.35.

Euro banks fell in spectacular fashion. Banco Santander (STD) dropped 3.81% to 10.87, IRE got squashed (3.63 -8.1%) and NBG (2.28 -3.8%) took a blow to the scrotum. I like STD below 9. Could happen. STD was below 9 less than two weeks ago.

SAFE PLAYS
Predictably, GLD (121.30 +0.29%) was up in a down market. So was SLV (18.26 +0.44). TLT, surprisingly, fell 0.59% to 98.65. But TLT had been hot lately, so it's not a shock.

ENERGY
US Oil (USO) gained 0.44% to 34.39 despite BP's plummet. BP gave back 3.14% to a new low of 28.74.

Nat Gas continued to fart incessantly. Only two of the 40 on my list closed positive today, though FTK had a nice 5.26% gain. As crude oil prices gain with greater demand, natural gas needs a definitive catalyst from the White House, something more than oral salutations from President Obama. Otherwise, nat gas is looking dead.

WPRT, once the beacon of the post-Obama clean-energy speech explosion, lost big again. Shares tumbled 3.81% to 16.40, and now WPRT is up only 11.64% since Obama's speech. WPRT had been up more than 30% at one point.

There are arguments to every sector of alternative energy. Wind has opponents because turbines kill thousands of birds. Solar has issues because of cost and the way certain endangered bugs (I'm not kidding) are instinctively attracted to panels and essentially fly until dead. The reasons are innumerable, surely "discovered" by pro-oil interests as well as well-meaning environmentalists.

Come on, people. We've got to do more than bitch and moan. Solutions?

HEDGES
VXX rocketed 6.14% to 28.35 and FAZ leaped 6.11% to 15.97. They're both explosive and both good ways to protect against losses if you're long the market, whether it's AAPL or financials.

Or you could just sit out and watch the circus from the bleachers like I have. Still 100% cash.

Lovely Saturday morning

The impeccable Koolau Mountains to the left. Diamond Head to the right. Well, if I could see through concrete walls, that's where I am.

Busy lately, as busy as ever, but not so much with lots of stuff as much as studying certain things like prep sports and the market. But what's equally interesting -- and sometimes painful -- is realizing that the biggest asset and detriment is myself. That's what the market always teaches: balance requires discipline, and that's always been one of my, uhhh, well it's never been a huge strength. Except for those springs and summers and falls when I diligently went to the park to work on my handles and pull-up jumpers.

Miles Ogawa was quite a teacher for me. He didn't coach me once I was done playing JV basketball, but his teaching/coaching stayed with me and I shared the zeal he had about defensive positioning and technique. His 60-shot drill stayed with me on those quiet afternoons at Ala Wai Park.

Anyway, Coach Miles was one of the very best. Thanks Coach!

I don't consider myself an athlete by any means, nor do I consider myself an athlete in the market, where most of us small fries are just trying to pick and choose our way to profitability. Learning to cut losses early and not just often, but ALWAYS, is a never ending challenge. It goes against some of my natural tendencies, like sticking it out when things get tough (perseverance). Bagholding a stock is not perseverance, though. It's stupidity and it can be costly.

I'm currently bagholding LVS and DNDN. I believe strongly that both will continue to rise and that there's no need to sell until then. I took a big hit in the past month on DNDN (should've sold quickly after it leaped to 28) and decided to sell at break-even after having a huge paper profit, then got back in, didn't sell while it was up and now it's down a few bucks; I also took a hit on BAC after earnings when it gapped down in the morning from near 11 to about 8-9. Instead of holding, I decided to get out. That was driven by fear, and apparently I was wrong to unload. BAC is now at 14.

Point is, this market rewards the good pickers and those who tune out just about everything in the media. It also rewards those who are disciplined and don't overpay at peak levels unless there is a catalyst. Example would be RIMM, which blasted through earnings estimates; recent numbers show the BlackBerry outsold the iPhone in Q1. RIMM won't come back down to 70 unless there's turmoil on Planet Earth, so it's up near 80 for some time to come. It's worth investing in on pullbacks.

Whatever the stock, though, a game plan is absolutely necessary. Sell on a slight dip and preserve your capital for lower buy-ins/better prices, or just wait it out like I should have with BAC. I did wait it out on BAC once. That took two weeks to recover, but it felt like two years.

I will continue to approach with a long-term outlook/hold on certain stocks (AAPL) and position trade on others. The bottom line, though, is whether I apply the game plan and get out of position trade losses ASAP. This past week was a personal record for break-even short-term trades, small-loss trades. That allowed me to be profitable for the week. Continuing to learn and focus on discipline: speed and commitment as a result of planning. A mix of break-evens, small losses and a few big gainers each week will equal profitability. I'm content to break even and that's a major step forward in my thinking.

See Trader Mike for some very solid reading.

Apple withdrawl

I use Apple product(s) daily. Have been since around 2003 or so. Never looked back. Yet, I've sold shares of AAPL only to have seller's regret (as opposed to buyer's remorse). A couple of years ago, I bought AAPL at 93, sold at 92 out of impatience, and the stock proceeded to roar all the way to 200.

Yesterday, I sold AAPL at 106 after buying at 95 just one week earlier. Today, AAPL ran to 114, and that was before RIMM beat earnings expectations after the bell. I'm not arguing that taking profits is bad. But I definitely need to regroup and commit to building core positions as I trade short term in others.

I do feel crummy about not having a position in AAPL. Seeing AAPL in the portfolio has such a psychological impact. Morale, a boost to morale. AAPL was up 3.7% today; STP, which I bought with my AAPL proceeds, rose 10.8%. It's counter to what Phil Town preaches -- buy great stocks low and let them work for you. Oh well. Maybe STP will turn out to be as great as AAPL. Anything close with a great return, I can live with.

Apple, Google & RIMM

Now, is this the bottom? Does it matter? I'm not jumping onto a sinking ship, but I definitely want to watch.

If, by some miracle, the economy is putting the doldrums behind, these three charts should see a spike up sometime. Or not.

#14 Research in Motion

Just a matter of time before the magic of a CrackBerry becomes part of China.


Not cheap here. Worth watching.

Nauseous? Watch the road

The nausea caused by the market tide doesn't mean there aren't some prices worth eyeing. Twenty of the 25 stocks I like are worth a look on the recent downturn.


ISRG starting to look attractive. Just a bit.


MasterCard is falling, too, even though the company is making major profits. I like it here below the 100-day SMA.


First Solar isn't cheap, but it's pretty good here. At worst, it's the leader in solar.


Really, McDonald's shouldn't be this cheap, not with its overseas exposure and growth. The honey mustard snack wrap is my fave. Still addicted to their fries.


Crude oil hit $104 a barrel today, but PetroChina shares are still sluggish.


Disney is a stock worth holding for a long time.


Up and down, down and up. Is Steve Jobs and his creative crew out of fresh ideas? I tend to think not. That's more of a key than whether they sell 10 million iPhones or not.


Really, is Google this bad?


RIMM's a bit pricey here.


I'd buy on these crazy dips if I could. Goldman Sachs at 165, didn't expect it, but it was always a possibility.


Focus Media hasn't proven its potential just yet and it's a bit expensive here.


CNOOC Ltd. is doing fairly well, while its cousin PetroChina is a slug. Go figure. Could be CNOOC's natural gas segment is getting a boost from rising demand.


Crashing hard. Where it bottoms out, who knows?


On discount lately. The CEO says they'll bounce back, just like last year.


Baidu and other China leaders can't get any traction here. Just a matter of time, perhaps, until the Beijing Olympics has an effect.


Nike trading in a range. Spooky here.


Just watching Mr. Softee for now.


China Life Insurance finally leveling out. What do the technical junkies call it? An ascending triangle ... which means it may break out. Or not.


Suntech Power is appealing right here.


There are probably dozens of better stocks than Chipotle right now. But I'm still watching.

Top 25: #13 Research in Motion

Rising volume, gap up ... is RIMM ready to roar again? I am so wary of this stock. Love the company, admire the products, but RIMM takes a pounding from the street like few other stocks. The chance to get shares at the 200-day SMA (85.98) has passed.

RIMM crashing no more?

Could it be? Has Research in Motion turned the tide? Are BlackBerries withstanding the economic slowdown? According to Lehman Brothers, sales for January are juicy. Get it? Blackberry. Juice. Never mind. RIMM is up 5.4% to 89.56 moments before the close. It was at 82 just a few days ago.

>> What Recession? BlackBerries Selling Great! (RIMM)

Apple sweet again?

AAPL was on sale at 117 mid-day recently. Now it's up to 122 plus and the price is still cheap in the eyes of some. Romeo Dator (All American Equity Fund), Darren Chervitz (Jacob Internet Fund) and Gary Bradshaw (Hodges Capital) are bullish.

>> Apple Ready to Shine Again

RIMM is up today, as well, and AMZN announced a $1 billion share buyback. That's a lot of money. Enough to fly to the moon and back a few times.

Apple might be worth dipping into below 120, but at 122? I'm not convinced the bears who pounded AAPL down from 200 are done yet. I need to see massive volume before I think about wading back in. Even as I type away on my trusty ol' PowerBook.

Top 25: #13 Research in Motion

The beatdown continues. I cut my losses at 93, but I never expected this. RIMM at 83 based on ... what? This is little more than complete manipulation by the street, and there's no way to beat the street.

Moving targets

No kidding. Volatile doesn't begin to describe today's session. Hoku Scientific was up more than 10%, then retraced. Google traded down to 510, climbed back up to 529 and is hovering at 525 now. I picked up GOOG at 529, pondered getting more at 512, but was gun-shy. Then I got more at 526.

I emptied out of RIMM and AAPL. No catalyst ahead for either, and RIMM is among the most abused of all high-growth stocks. For short-term trading, there was no point in being in either anymore. I even sold my NTDOY.PK, which seasonally trades down between January and March.

Microsoft's bid to buy Yahoo has kept today's market slightly positive when it probably was going to sell off. Yahoo could hold out for more than $31 per share, but that would be ballsy on their part. Leverage belongs to MSFT. Yahoo opened at 28-plus, came down to 27-plus, and then returned to 28.32. Is Yahoo a good trade here? Seems that it should be.

Intuitive Surgical has kicked arse today on great earnings, and so has Flowserve. Too pricey now, of course. PetroChina and CNOOC and upstanding today with gains of about 5%. Still trading cheap relative to their moving averages.

Goldman Sachs was hovering at 200 before I took a nap (6 a.m. Hawaii time). Now GS is at 207. Boy, talk about what coulda been easy money. China Mobile is up even though Cramer panned it yesterday. Of my Top 25, only six are in negatoid territory: RIMM, AAPL, BIDU, AMZN, MSFT and GOOG. I still hold on to Google. Good chance it can rebound as it did last July after that earnings report disappointed the street. I don't plan to wait two months, though, for a run.

Top 25: #9 Research in Motion

RIMM 93.88 +0.09 (+0.1%)
50-day SMA: 103.45 | 100-day SMA: 105.66 | 200-day SMA: 84.40
RIMM is among the publicly skewered growth stocks that will undoubtedly be hammered again on any semblance of bad news in the economy and market. Though RIMM is cheap here, a bad jobs report tomorrow could bring shares down for a re-test of 80.

Fear is contagious

This week — this month — more than ever has been a lesson in the power of the external. All the charts, statistics and revenues in the world are great, sort of like measuring the tide and the frequency and size of waves on local shores. You believe what you see. But the recession worries, housing subprime crisis, breakdown in financial institutions, etc. are certainly earthquakes from beyond our vision. It's like an earthquake in Indonesia that can cause a tsunami to hit Hawaii or North America. And that's the simple lesson.

Apple has nothing to do with Countrywide Financial, let alone a quake on the other side of the ocean. But today AAPL trades at 160, 20% below its recent high, and there is no way to argue against a trading strategy along with (or without) a core, long-term position. At the end of December, AAPL traded at 200 and far above its simple moving averages. Clearly not a buy, but I was among those who didn't consider selling shares. The street sold off just about everything since the start of 2008, and Apple was caught in that tsunami.

It will be a long time before the confidence of the market is reestablished. Until then, there's no point in fighting the price action. Any movement up is paired with lowered volume (re: Apple, Google, RIMM, etc). There is no conviction from the bull side, and that's why it's impossible to go long-term with new positions right now.

Apple's earnings are out on Tuesday. The telescopes are focused. Fear of the tsunami prevails, but will that fear continue?

Pupule portfolio

The market is beyond ridiculous now. Bear market? Or just a sharp correction? Whatever the case, here are more additions to the faux portfolio.

AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

AAPL | in at 177.64 (11 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

AAPL | in at 171.25 (18 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 344.31 (6 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

BIDU | in at 345.21 (9 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

CEO | in 167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



CHL | in at 84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08

CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
CHL | in at 85.22 (47 shares) | 40% of position | 1/7/08



CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 123.98 (16 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

CMG | in at 117.87 (25 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

EBAY | in at 32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08

EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08

EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at 30.44 (131 shares) 40% of position | 1/7/08

FLS | in at 90.50 (11 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08

FLS | in at 90.45 (22 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08

FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 56.14 (36 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

FMCN | in at 56.20 (54 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

FWLT | in at 149.94 (7 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08

FWLT | in at 143.49 (14 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08





GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 649.25 (3 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

GOOG | in at 631.68 (5 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

GS | in 214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
ISRG | in at 299.98 (7 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

ISRG | in at 271.73 (11 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

LFC | in 80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
LULU | in at 38.45 (52 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

LULU | in at 36.93 (81 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08



MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08

MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 58.03 (52 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08

MCD | in at 57.08 (70 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08



MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.61 (58 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

MSFT | in at 33.45 (90 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08



NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08

NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 62.11 (48 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08

NKE | in at 61.83 (65 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08

NTDOY.PK | in at 67.00 (15 shares) | 10% of position | 1/8/08

PTR | in 181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
RIMM | in at 99.83 (20 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

RIMM | in at 96.44 (31 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 72.99 (41 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08

VMW | in at 74.50 (53 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08

Bargains?

These are the stocks among my Top 25 that are trading below their 100-day simple moving averages.

Chipotle Mexican Grill

















eBay

















Goldman Sachs

















China Life Insurance

















lululemon athletica

















PetroChina

















Research in Motion

















VMware