Weekend cinema & library (updated)

Bokor Mountain Church, Cambodia

Le Fly/iBankCoin: Germany's third World War (June 3)
Scott Bleier/iBankCoin: Growth at any cost? (June 3)
Business Insider: Soros reveals exact moment Merkel started Euro collapse (June 2)
Business Insider: Former hedge funder presents terrifying version of end game (June 2)
Bloomberg: Merkel rejects debt sharing (June 2)
Reuters: Funds pull out of commodities, most bearish since end-2011 (June 1)
Zero Hedge: 'The End Game' (June 1)
Zero Hedge: The deer is back (June 1)
Zero Hedge: Santelli and Kaminsky on broken rules, unpredictability, deleveraging (June 1)
Zero Hedge: Sorry folks, QE3 ain't coming, even the Fed doves admit it (June 1)

Monday cinema & library (updated Tue 200 am HST)

Saw Moneyball last night. Great flick. Great minds coming up with a better way to succeed.

11:47 pm (Hawaii) Late start on today's cinema & library. Busy work day, busy other stuff day. Just busy. But I'm nowhere as busy as gold and silver spot prices, which are both ripping higher overseas. If you were brave and/or logical enough to grab a load of physical gold and silver last night when prices were slashed  to remarkable discount levels, a standing ovation to you. If you stepped into AGQ below 100, more power to you. At this rate, with spot silver at 33 now (it was 26 little more than 24 hours ago) and spot gold at 1675 (it was at 1520 or so about 24 hours ago), this is either a sign of the "normal" volatility to come... or the Great Takedown has finally ceased.

Was it enough for the puppeteers to empty out the last of their naked shorts in silver? Probably not, and that's not really a concern in this moment. All I need to know is how to deal with my modest position in DGP once premarket trading opens in about 2 hours. If the market rallies (I have no idea), my eyes will also be peering in on FAZ and FAS. As there were discount prices on gold and silver, there will again be low, low prices on FAZ soon enough. I plan to ride that express from 55 or 50 or 40 to 100, but I won't pretend to know when that particular train is leaving.

Golden pukefest?No anxiety for physical owners

Hi ho Silver! Already 30% above yesterday's low. 

Update 2:02 am AGQ at 130+ (+14.9%) and DGP at 55.84 (+7%) as premarket trading opens. AGQ was available yesterday below 100. In and out is the way for traders. Quick and efficient preserves capital. Or as Robert Nesta Marley once said, "He who fight and run away live to fight another day."

Blogs

Zero Hedge: Key precondition to second Greek bailout has failed (Sept 27)

Michael Snyder: Fed plans to identify 'key bloggers', monitor Facebook, Twitter (Sept 27)

Zero Hedge: Silver soars 26% in 26 hours (Sept 27)

Turd Ferguson: Looking for a bottom (white-out edition) (Sept 26)

> Charts Gold Dec 15-minute | Silver Dec 15-minute

Jeff Berwick: Gold and silver bubbles, panics and stink bids (Sept 26)
SGS: Long GLD calls (Sept 26)
Zero Hedge: Presenting the mother of all European bailout flowcharts (Sept 26)
Zero Hedge: Gold, silver recover as EU doubles down (Sept 26)
Zero Hedge: 'Anonymous' alleges Hong Kong's HK$8.5 billion Chaoda is next Sino Forest (Sept 26)
Peter Tchir: EU goes from monetary union to suicide pact (Sept 26)
Reggie Middleton: I suggest Groupon offer coupons to IPO investors (Sept 26)
Golden Truth: It's getting very ugly out 'there' (Sept 26)
Dan Norcini: Gold charts and some comments (Sept 26)
Realist News: High court in Germany says halt all EU bailouts - Unconstitutional (Sept 26)
Le Fly: Ice cold (remix version) (Sept 26)

Vlogs

BrotherJohnF: Silver Update - Hidden bottoms (Sept 26)
Keiser Report: Pax Americana pyramid nightmare (Sept 26)
MoneyBags73: So many more people would want to have gold if they understood (Sept 26)
MoneyBags73: IMF may need bailout to bail out Euro nations (Sept 26)
drutter: Vancouver physical silver inventory update (Sept 26)
King World News: Why central banks smashed gold, silver (Sept 26)
Four Horsemen Film: Fiat Money (Sept 22)

Mainstream

Reuters: World stocks rebound on Euro bailout hope (Sept 27)

Business Insider: Greek Fin Min: If Europe can't save Greece, it can't save itself (Sept 27)

Business Insider: Geither to ABC: (Europe) foreshadowing escalation (Sept 27)
Reuters: Some sectors of China's economy may crash: Marc Faber (Sept 27)
Jim Comiskey: Daily market insights - Metals futures (Sept 26)

(video) BBC: Alessio Rastani: 'Smart money knows stock market is finished' (Sept 26)

Flat indices, metals trashed

6:09 am (Hawaii) Well, this is the other side of my "late" sell of DGP yesterday. I waited until I was down almost $4 from the top to unload my modest position at 68.57. It continued lower into the 67+ area, then came back to 68+ by the close. Today? DGP is struggling to stay above 64, which is the level I re-entered at last week. Glad I'm out.

You can be as bullish on gold as you want, but human nature is what it is. A huge run will lead to profit-taking sooner or later. So I'm fine just sidelining and being prepared for the next timely entry point. I don't mind re-entering a bit late. I just have no interest in jumping back in while the momentum is clearly still downward.

Besides the PM spot prices and ETFs, miners are getting head-slammed. XG is at 9.10, up from its low of the day (8.76). It's down 8.1%. GORO (-7.6%), UBG (-7%), EXK (-6.9%) all at the bottom of my Metals list (19% green, 81% red). AGQ is at 214+, down roughly 36 bucks since Monday. SLW, which had been hawwt, is down 6% to 36.45.

One of my favorite bloggers/traders of all time, StockGuy22, has been short gold since near the top through DZZ, which I tried to trade last week with no fortunate result. DZZ is above 4.60 today. It closed at 4.34 yesterday and opened at the same price, oddly enough. It's up 7.1% to top the Metals list. DUST, ZSL, GLL, DGZ all lead the list.

My Regular watch list is 21% green, 79% red. Quite broad while the indices are all less than 1% down. Not a bullish sign at all following yesterday's 300+ gain in the Dow. This info about $1.5 billion leaving GLD notes that GLD had surpassed SPY as the largest ETF. I saw one analyst mock this event, as if SPY were untouchable. It just felt to me like doubters who mocked AAPL as its market cap began to swell a few years ago.

Gold itself has moved up because of reality, not because of fantasy. It's movements have sometimes reminded me of AAPL, especially the dropdowns after reaching new highs. Swings. The obvious difference is price control via margin hikes, like the one in Shanghai — making it two hikes in one month.

No significant news today. I'm not watching any TV, just surfing the net with a view of the sunrise. There's little point to staying exposed to every bit of white noise until Jackson Hole in two days. Even then, if Helicopter Ben says nothing of essence, I'm fine staying 100% cash. Like AAPL, there are times to wait out the downswing. There are times to sit out before entering the water again. This time with paper gold, it's the latter for me.

Greecian formula?

10:17 am (Hawaii) Major momentum swings today. Jobs report bad. Greece austerity good. Looking over several charts from AAPL to NBG to AG, could it be remotely possible that this bullish vibe — increased volume, heavy momentum from lows to highs by the close — is the real deal? I would find that preposterous to conceive. This is late June, QE2 is almost done and the Fed is in no rush to usher in QE3. In fact, the Fed seems content to see the market tank, even crash, to justify any further fiat currency destruction, i.e. printing trillions more US Dollars.

Yet there are massive numbers in some of these equities/etfs. Are they spurred by high-frequency trading? Probably, but some of those are direct from the hedge funds, and moves on big volume don't lie in the near term. Usually.

I got out of FAZ despite my long-term pessimism about the debt crisis. I am not going to wait around and get cut to pieces by market momentum to the downside. But I am willing to re-enter FAZ once the financials' true colors show up vivid and bright again. Like maybe tomorrow morning. If Spain and Portugal opt for more austere routes, like Greece, that does NOT help US banksters one bit. So it can be possible for NBG to rocket higher on austerity measures while financials stateside swallow another plate of poison.

I looked hard at NBG before the close and had an order at 1.41, but never got it filled. Bad timing. Or good, depending on how the market follows through tomorrow. It could easily pull back into the 1.30s after today's robust gain. A tiny position would be interesting, but a fast move up isn't in the cards. I can see NBG at 2.00 in a few months, but the constant downturns of other banks will keep it leashed. A move to 2.50 or higher could happen within a year. A double is never a bad thing.





Apple held high ground even when the market was still down big. AAPL closed is at 330.20 after hours (+2.3%). Today's candlestick is not exactly bullish, but it is not bearish either.

Baidu has been bullish, as well, with good news earlier in the week. It wasn't long ago that BIDU split 3-for-1 and was sitting at 70. If there's a "safe" play in China, this would be one. Big Brother protects its little brothers.

LULU and other stocks look bullish, but in this bizarro market, LULU could easily lose its recent gains. That small float cuts both ways.

Silver was a roller coaster ride today. Silver Wheaton, like AAPL, showed strength when it was a sea of red. Net-net, SLW had slightly more volume and is up 1% to 33.13 after hours.

First Majestic (AG) also had a positive day (+0.8%) despite the pummeling on silver. Like Silver Wheaton, First Majestic's fundamental numbers are impressive, particularly in profit margin. I think that gets tampered with as energy prices fluctuate, but AG is still a solid miner.

I still like EXK (8.49 after hours), which was down nearly 1% but is still among the stronger plays this week among silver miners. 7.50 is support, and some shrewd traders got in at about 7.60 recently for this elevator ride.










AGQ, GPL, PAAS, SLV for your viewing.

 

 

ZSL was a solid play on the short side, but was well off its intraday high (19.11). ZSL is at 18.49 (+6.4%) after hours.

If the CME mafia continue to pull strings on silver, a little ZSL would make good protection.

DGP (double gold bull) looked horrible on the chart, big gap down on increased volume. If the puppet masters knock gold down, as I expect, to further their argument in favor of QE3, so be it. They will not and cannot hold gold down for long, though. Eventually, the debt crisis will overwhelm all factors, and the US will have to take severe action one way or another. Every way benefits real money: gold and silver. So I will hold my little position in DGP and continue to accumulate hard assets.

Rangold (GOLD) was a rarity today, a gold play that finished green (80.03, +0.5% after hours). I don't trade it, know little about it.

There were a few gold plays that showed some strength, like NGD.

GLD was GLD.

I still like Extorre Gold Mines (XG), even with its huge run in the past several months. They are great marketers and have been successful as of late with their finds in Argentina.










DZZ is one way to play a downturn in gold. GLL is another way (+3.7% today). On the whole, however, I don't plan to short gold. If I bet against anything, it would be the financials or silver, maybe the Nas (QID). I've never played QID, and unless there's a complete breakdown, I won't touch it. But the Nas does fall apart in a big way from time to time, so QID is worth keeping an eye on.

 

I'm mostly cash, same as the last several months. Small, but growing pile of physical metals.

This brawl ain't over

12:00 pm (Hawaii) Yesterday's moves were almost entirely on sharply lower volume. Today?

AGQ: Tue 1.7 million shares, Wed 1.6 mil

DGP: Tue 688k, Wed 997k

EDZ: Tue 2.3 mil, Wed 2.3 mil

FAZ: Tue 13.0 mil, Wed 13.3 mil

GLD: Tue 10.9 mil, Wed 13.3 mil

GPL: Tue 2.1 mil, Wed 3.3 mil

SCO: Tue 1.4 mil, Wed 2.3 mil

SLV: Tue 30 mil, Wed 40 mil

And so on. I'm not a fan of SLV or GPL (due for a pullback after a massive run). But AGQ doesn't lie. It was up on almost even volume. Gold plays, even GLD, up on significant increased volume.

FAZ is perplexing at times, but it's neither bearish or bullish after today's 6% gain. I'm tempted to open a small position but I'm leaning toward waiting overnight. Same with SCO, though for different reasons. SCO and UCO are just wickedly flip-floppy. Obama wanted lower gas prices and he's getting it. But crude oil could bounce back on any craziness in the ME. Depends on how you feel about the presence of US Navy in the region; does it quell resistance and lead to US takeover of Iraqi/etc oil fields? Or does it lead to conflict?

Here are the biggest losers off my Metals/etc list:

UCO 43.25, -7.4%, Tue 2.5 mil, Wed 3.9 mil

FAS 22.54, -6.6%, Tue 23.9 mil, Wed 27.5 mil

CU 38.58, -4.9%, Tue 75k, Wed 4.9 mil

COPX 17.48, -3.8%, Tue 46k, Wed 236k

AG 16.88, -2.6%, Tue 1.1 mil, Wed 1.1 mil

Miners make up a big chunk of today's losers. But note how copper got destroyed (CU, COPX). Is this a blow-off top? Or is all this exiting volume an indication that the market will be dead money for some time. I think it's the latter. Plenty of people went on vacation, and a lot of the leftover traders got out today. AAPL at 325-326 ... that's dead money for awhile. 

This is looking like a knock-down, drag-out alley fight that could go on for days or weeks. Months maybe. But the scent of positive economic numbers will give us a quick dead-cat bounce opportunity here and there.

Content to sit in mostly cash and let it all shake out. Acquire more physical metal bit by bit.

One small morsel at a time

4:35 am (Hawaii) The sky is black and hungry baby birds are starting to sing. The air is cool and the early morning has brought no rain, no humidity ... just a pleasant and cool, and quiet, time of day. Maybe the best time of day, all things considered, in this pit of traffic and overcrowding. Yes, Honolulu is still picturesque. It just ain't what it used to be. Sometimes, you just can't go back.

I have yet to turn on the TV, being satisfied with my place in bed and the aforementioned solitude. But the indices are down due to abysmal manufacturing numbers. Senor Turd notes that this shouldn't be any kind of surprise to the market, but one result is that gold shot up 10 bucks.

That's good for my small portion of DGP (+1.1%), bad for most of my Metals list. At one point after the opening bell, 78% were in the red. Now it's only 71%. ZSL and FAZ have taken turns leading the way. FAZ was at 44.14, dropped to 43.85 and I thought maybe a rally was underway. But really, there is no rally coming this morning because there just isn't any good news for now. So FAZ is now up to 44.32.

Gold is hanging in there. NGD is up a half percent, GLD is fractionally higher, and even PALL is still green. But DUST, the gold miner 2x bear, is still up 0.8%. It's tough sledding for gold plays today. It's much rougher on silver plays. ZSL is up 2.6% while AGQ struggles to stay above 200. AG, EXK, SLV are all down. So much for slightly bullish hammers on yesterday's charts. Just goes to show, technicals mean nothing in the face of economic thresholds.

Rare metals (MCP, AVL) are being hammered, as is LNKD, which is now below 79 (-3.5%).

The one, buoyant leader is AAPL, which is up 2.3% to 350. It was at 337 yesterday early, then sat at 343 for hours after the news about next week's presentation featuring Steve Jobs. AAPL closed above 347, then traded today above 352. Major show of strength. Question is whether it can sustain this move while the rest of the market is in the red. Though my metals list is bleeding, my regular watch list (non-metals) is 76% red.

Update 4:53 am (Hawaii) FAZ now 44.55. It appears not everyone in Greece is geeked up about austerity measures. Still. Once again, Euro possessors seek refuge in gold.

AP: Greek banker dismisses euro exit as review looms (June 1 2011)

Reuters: Stocks fall as manufacturing slows (June 1 2011)

Turd: ADP vs. BLS (June 1 2011)

Update 5:16 am (Hawaii) This would be known as a Viagra.

This, even more so.

Update 5:33 am (Hawaii) Metals list is now 56% green. That was quick. Most silver plays went straight up, lower left to the upper right of their charts, in the past 30 minutes or so. Many of them are green now, or close to it. This is a daytrader's joy ride.

Bad credit, bad hair and Europe?

10:17 am (Hawaii) So what does this half-assed solution to the Greek debt crisis mean? How did it spur the indices higher through the closing bell? Was it all just AAPL?

How much of it was end-of-month window dressing? How many of those same fund bosses sell their AAPL and other assorted non-essentials tomorrow before the peon premarket?

A meltdown in Greece, then Portugal, then Spain, France, UK ... wouldn't all of this have left gold and silver alone to run higher and higher? Are we really that much closer to the stack-your-cans-of-sardines-and-Spam days?

One thing is clear. The daily charts show many, many silver plays with fairly bullish candlestick charts. I don't think it's an all-clear that silver shoots up vertically from here, but it's something to watch.

Big Apple

A major gap open and strong finish on increased volume. Under normal conditions, what's not to like, right? But even AAPL can't withstand the unnatural currents of the global market.

Crude activity

What's good for crude oil is good for the market? Not necessarily, but Sensei Turd Ferguson has been forecasting a crude move to the upside.

Silver hammers

AGQ, AG, EXK, SLV all have hammer candles that are somewhat bullish. It's not enough for me to jump in head first, so I'm still 90% cash. But it's getting attractive.

In an afternoon update, Turd pointed to 37.50 as an area of "stout support", with a re-test of 39.50 soon. I suppose I'm selfish wanting prices below 35 to buy physical.

Gold isn't looking as interesting, which is expected after last week's move (and the sputter action of silver). I don't know what to make of XG's candle today except that it finished with some momentum. An oddity.

The gold junior miners ETF looks nice, but GLD looks tired. It might be time for some consolidation. I'm still positive on gold in general, still holding a small piece of DGP, which also looks tired here.

Rare earths are foreign to me, but MCP looks full of vigor here.

If you look hard enough, the palladium ETF chart looks a little bit like XG. Bullish, but something's not quite right.

Copper ETF looks positive, but is all the news out of China already baked in? Copper was a good play a week ago when China's growth turned up strong, but this is a tightrope here. Long term, I wouldn't fear this trade, but I can't hold anything that long in this market.

I'm sticking to my gut for now and staying mostly out. AAPL will be interesting if it holds its ground, but much of that depends on the chaos in the Euro zone and, well, just about everywhere else.

SGS is skeptical about PMs and noted earlier that if gold can't keep up, silver will be ravaged by the puppet masters.

A pullback in PMs would be par for the course. Gold, in particular, tends to pull back on any gains during the summer. It has the last two summers. I'd look to add more physical on discount prices as volume wanes and the lulls take over.