Status quo

On the road again and it's nice to be out of the traffic mess and snarl, the craziness of people in tight quarters. No, out here it's quiet, less traffic and even with a job to do, I can relax almost instantly. Catching up with today's price action. China cut interest rate, but Bernanke was predictably stoic after a huge two-day run-up in the market. Don't forget the bullish comments coming out of Fed bankers recently, and Bernanke had to stay quiet, ie douse the flames with a sprinkling of cold water.

Would've been profitable to short financials after the open today via FAZ, but I was asleep at 3:30 am and later was on the road. It's looking more and more like a dead-cat bounce, though this one is completely attached by umbilical cord to monetary easing (or not) and Eurozone politics. That's what makes it difficult to hold FAZ overnight. Had I tried this yesterday, I would've started today's session down an full buck. Not worth the risk.

Looks like a lot of jibber-jabber on the way from people like Fed bankers, and that'll make for a lot of useless running in place between now and those key Eurozone elections in about 10 days. Just enough time to really take a deep breath and enjoy the view.

Wednesday cinema & library (updated)

Abigail Doolittle: Runaway day likely to fail (June 6)
Keiser Report: Paper money collapse (June 5)
David Fry: Big Wednesday short squeeze (June 7)
The Guardian: Spain calls for new tax pact to save euro (June 6)
Wall Street Journal: Lockhart says Fed must stand ready to provide more support (June 6)

CNBC: Market's fate 'in Bernanke's hands' (June 6)

Le Fly: 'We are going the fuck higher' (June 6)

Reuters: Fed more upbeat on economy in Beige Book (June 6)

Turd Ferguson: 'DO NOT be surprised by a dip/profit-taking' in metals (June 6)

Financial Post: Gartman admits he made bad call on gold (June 6)

Barron's: Hedge funds have gotten extremely bearish (June 6)

Scott Bleier: Pressure valve day (June 6)
Forbes: JPMorgan's other messy problem: MF Global's missing money (June 4)

Jim Rogers: 'Please get worried' (June 4)

Dabbling and babbling

Took a ride on FAZ Wednesday, jumping in at 21.75, only to be stopped out at 21.65. Why use stops? If you're asking that question, you may not realize how dangerous FAZ (and FAS) can be. These 3x poltergeist monsters can make or break an account in minutes, even seconds. (There was a day years ago when I made 4k and lost 4k in premarket on FAS. That's what a quick trip to the toilet cost me on that wild morning, but it was a lesson well learned.)

Got back in today at 22.29 and placed a stop at 21.89 before I left home for a journey. FAZ eventually dropped to 21.95 before closing at 22.06, so my position is still in play. I don't feel any certainty about this trade. LaGarde is begging for more invisible fiat currency to be printed, and it could happen overnight. Or it could drag out through the France presidential elections later this month and in May. Bernanke has already said, at least for show, that the US will not save the Euro. I don't believe him, but that's what's on the table for now.

The low volume in Wednesday's rally was a convincing factor for me. And financials are not rallying even as they "beat" earnings estimates. Everything's baked in, and the retail trader has no interest in buying anything that's bloated or overbought, even at low 14x earnings levels (AAPL).

But when AAPL gets to my target of 546 (Fibonacci retrace from the 396 level late last year), I'll be itching to get in. While the rest of the planet earth crumbles, every last consumer will trade in whatever he or she can just to have an iPad and/or iPhone 5. By then, I'll be out of FAZ, long before (hopefully) the US and Europe are printing cyberbucks for nothing.

13.33? (updated 944 am HST)

3:35 am (Hawaii) Looking for FAS Fib retrace to 13.33 off its high today of 13.69. Dow currently +162 (1.4%), Nasdaq up 31 (+1.2%), S&P +19 (+1.6%).

Update 4:04 am FAS touched 13.33, finally, for a minute or two, rose up to 13.45, now dipping a second time. If it can hold at 13.33 for more than a minute, fine. I'm not optimistic or skeptical. Everything is in flux because of Greece and today's FOMCpalooza.

Update 8:22 am Got my sleep, woke up about an hour ago, just lounging in bed. Laptop and Bloomberg TV online. I guess I could say I was in bed with Betty Loo this morning. FAS ran to 13.92 off that Fib retrace to 13.33. The precision of that retrace was cool, highly entertaining and fun. Too bad I didn't buy. I had an order in, but it never filled.  

As I slept, FAS pulled back again probably based on the Fed minutes of its 2-day meeting (no policy change). An hour ago, FAS dipped to 13.20, low of the day, and then ran to 13.54 before selling off again, mini-waterfall style. Currently at 13.26-13.33. So FAS is back to today's Fib retrace level.

Dow +123 (+1%), Nasdaq +13 (+0.5%), S&P +11.85 (+0.9%). FAZ is at 43.17-43.24 here.

Staying out through Bernanke's press conference.

Update 8:50 am From Business Insider, predictions from the Fed:

• It lowered GDP growth forecasts for 2011 from 2.7%-2.9% in June to 1.6%-1.7%. For 2012, it revised projections downward to 2.5%-2.9%.
• The Fed boosted unemployment projections to 9.0-9.1% from 8.6%-8.9%.
• The Fed also raised PCE inflation estimates slightly for this year to 1.8-1.9% (they were predicting 1.5%-1.9%). Predictions for next year were relatively unchanged, however, at 1.5%-2.0%.

Meanwhile, FAS has broken higher to 13.49. No apparent reason why.

Update 9:44 am Not touching anything here, though I have a bias to the long side. 13.51 is a crucial point for FAS, being the 50% retrace price of the latest run from 13.21 to 13.80. FAS is testing this intraday support level for the second time now.

Discipline & Floppity (updated 1040 am HST)

7:14 am (Hawaii) Been in an out, trying to stick with my little boxes. Got up about an hour ago to see FAZ had spurted higher this morning to 81, matching its recent high. Then sold off back to just below 75.

I've been toying at that level. In at 76.00, out at 75.60. In at 75.00, out at 75.10. In at 76.00. In hindsight, it seems ludicrous to yo-yo with entries and exits. With more time, it's more likely that FAZ will hold at this level as a new floor. But I'm still cautious.

Update 7:40 am Has FAZ and the anti-bankster momentum petered out? Maybe. I added a few more shares at 77.00. Maybe BAC gets another bailout, but its less likely after this debit-card fee was announced yesterday. They pissed the president off. Again.

Update 8:52 am Heading into the final hour. Expecting some head fakes at the top of the hour for maybe 1 to 10 minutes. FAZ at 78.12, might add a few more at 78.00. Dow is -181 and falling again.

FAZ 1-minute w/ little boxes

Update 9:10 am Missed at 78.00, added at 79.00. Feeling a little bloated here, but the earlier strength this morning remains. Selling is met with buying, sustained. Dow -207 now.

Update 9:22 am Boo. FAZ got up to 79.79, then a major dumpage (hedge fund unloading big lots) brought it below 79 instantly. I got out at 78.50 and FAZ is now at 77.55. The profit-taking had to happen at some point. Interesting moves. Like yesterday, the top-of-the-hour action actually happened 5-10 minutes before the final hour started. And this unloading is happening quite early compared to recent days. Up that much over a few days, it's bound to happen. If I'd had a stop in place, maybe I get more than 78.50. Because I bought more at 79.00, I lost a chunk of my paper profit, but still ahead on the trade, profit of $1.33/share.

Nothing close to holding it from 55 to 81, but I'll take it.

Update 9:38 am Avalanche in FAZ as (I'm guessing) hedge funds unloaded at 79.79. I was lucky to get out when I did with a manual stop. FAZ just touched 75.20. This falloff was due. Can I get shares at 65 or 55 or 50? Dow is -73.

FAZ 1-minute: 75 still proving to be a floor, at least for today

Update 9:43 am FAZ going red dead to 74 as the Dow is nearly back to even for the day. AAPL went from 365 to 368 in a few minutes. Hmmm... this bounce is purely technical, but bouncing it is.

Update 9:54 am Was distracted for the past 10 minutes and away from the computer, and there goes FAZ down for the count. Down to 71, now 70. So much for 75 holding. This could fall all the way to 65, 55 ... but nothing in Europe has changed. Maybe Geithner announces something later today. Plunging, 69 ... AAPL to 371. More bounce.

Update 10:01 am Opened a position in AAPL 372+. Love this company and products but this is a quick trade. It traded well below its current range earlier today, down to 354, but major bounce. Bernanke's chatter boosted the Euro, hit the US Dollar and spiked the rally. FAZ went from the top of my Debt Spiral list to the very bottom, down 10.9% for the day, crazy crazy action. Can't trade FAZ without micromanaging it or having stop orders in.

AAPL daily: If Bernanke's chatter holds,

AAPL can rally back to 383 and beyond. If...

An amazing intraday rally in AAPL (and the indices)

Update 10:38 am Out of AAPL 371.75. Teeny loss. Looks like the run is done, purely a quick trade. Can't marry any stock in this environment.

FAZ at the close

Update 10:43 am A more recent look at the FAZalanche (above). A little perky after hours (below), but no sustainable move either way. 81 to 66 in one session. Can't say I'm surprised, but it's still a hell of a visual. Might get my 55 tomorrow. Nothing wrong with a little hope.

Quiet time after hours for FAZ

Now what?

FAZ gone wild?

The daily chart shows the rise and fall and rise and fall and rise since July 7, 2011

3:27 pm (Hawaii) Sure enough, FAZ price is moving. No, I didn't expect this kind of swing so quickly, but then Helicopter Ben underwhelmed the market yesterday and that just juiced up the USS FAZapalooza to warp speed. Though I contend that FAZ is due to break through recent highs of 73 and 81 en route to 100, there will surely be dips along the way. Or not. I'm not banking on anything, back in all cash after selling my position today.

So FAZ broke through the near-term trendline of the megaphone pattern of the chart. Had Bernanke decided to print, print, print, FAZ would've broken support and tanked. FAZ would've been at 50, maybe 45 or 40 by now. Instead, the market took an instant shave and kept that razor humming through yesterday's finish and all through today ... until the late rally that lifted the Dow from -500 plus points to -389.

FAZ is now above the recent trendline/resistance and sitting above it. Is 66-68 the new support level? Maybe. But the market is due for a bounce, no matter that we're in a bear market right now. This much selling will be eventually met with buying. The buying may lack conviction, but it will come. That will push FAZ lower and I'll be interested in scaling in again. 68 would be nice, but after all that volume today, it may stay above 70 and meander for a few days while the market tries to figure out what the hell happened this week. As long as hedge funds stay out of bankster stocks, they will continue to tread water and/or sink toward the bottom.

Tomorrow should be a great opportunity for perennial bulls to wade into the water and start new positions. A big rally wouldn't be surprising. The bigger, the better. FAZ at 65 again would be pleasing. Anything lower would be a gift.

Much ado

Sophie Reade

9:12 am (Hawaii) 45 minutes to the close. Then a long wait until President Obama delivers a much-anticipated speech on the economy. Is this the first official step of commitment toward an infrastructure bank? If it operates like municipals or bonds or whatnot, what will it mean for 1) the market, and 2) the economy? Unless there's some breakthrough commitment to real assets rather than digital currency, wouldn't any so-called infrastructure entity just be a new branch of the Fed, ie fractional/fantasy units?

Whatever the case, I've been watching for a couple of hours. Since Bernanke delivered his non-speech an hour or so ago, AAPL has gone from 384.12 to 383.69, AGQ from 233.68 to 234.10, DGP from 69.72 to 70.75 and FAZ from 57.70 to 58.33. It's interesting that the market was slightly bullish during Bernanke's speech, with AAPL slightly up, AGQ, DGP and FAZ slightly down. That changed with the end of his speech, which had no hints whatsover of QE3.

I'm willing to scale into DGP here, but only on an intraday dip. Might stay all cash until Obama's done talking. But if spot gold bottomed at 1800 yesterday, it's got some work to do going back up. Asia bought the hell out of gold overnight, which has been the common behavior over the past month. Price gets knocked down by the puppeteers of the West, and then Asia steps in with full buying force. Or maybe it's far less than full force. Wouldn't surprise me that the biggest buying from the East is yet to come. We still don't have PAGE open just yet. That operation will allow China bank customers to buy gold directly. No bullshit or flim-flam from the power elite. With inflation a major issue in the Middle Kingdom, savers will keep flocking to hard, golden assets.

AGQ closed at 225.39 yesterday, opened today at 235.49 and has kept most of those gains so far. With puppeteers like JP Morgan bullish on gold ($2,500 forecast), I still believe they are short silver with all the ammo they can grab. I'll touch AGQ only on a severe dip and ride that out. 233 is a bit high for now.

Tuesday cinema & library

Blogs

Jim Sinclair: September 7th takes on strategic importance (Aug 30)

Jim Sinclair: Who will protect you in these outrageous markets? (Aug 30)

Turd Ferguson: (pm) Read this now (Aug 30)

Zero Hedge: QE3 Levitation Day 2 (Aug 30)

King World News: Stephen Leeb - Gold skying because of Bernake desperation (Aug 30)

King World News: Gerald Celente - I'm now 100% in gold, Roubini is wrong (Aug 30)

> A decade ago, Celente was advising to by gold at $280.

Zero Hedge: JPM demanding QE3 (Aug 30)

Times of India: India makes buying gold easier (Aug 30)

Turd Ferguson: (am) All the fuss (Aug 30)

Bruce Krasting: Govt investment disaster in the works? (Aug 30)

Seth Lipsky: Floating dollar as threat to property rights (Feb)

Vlogs

Organic Heed: ChemTrails and coffee, violent Detroit (Aug 30)

Christopher Greene: Collapse imminent (Aug 30)

Hit the Bid: This is supposed to be about stocks (Aug 30)

Endless Mountain: The Silver Log (Aug 30)

USAprepares.com: Bob Chapman interview (Aug 30)

Realist News: Web Bot update - Some big event should happen soon (Aug 30)

James Turk: Ned Naylor-Leyland interview (Aug 30)

> Aug 5 interview

H1INC: Silver: A final warning (Aug 30)

Audio

Peter Schiff Radio: Chicago Fed president Charles Evans favors QE3 (Aug 30)

Blog commentary

Inbetween is pain: No shame - only hubris (Aug 30)

ScottJ: Playing devil's advocate (Aug 30)

Reports

Video

CNBC: The rush for gold (Aug 30)

> Guest Sen. Ron Paul

CNBC: Chicago Fed: Economy in liquidity trap (Aug 30)

CNBC: August consumer confidence down (Aug 30)

CNBC: FOMC announcement: A divided Fed (Aug 30)

CNBC: New hints of QE3? (Aug 30)

CNBC: Pimco's Gross regrets 'mistake' on US debt call (Aug 30)

MSNBC: Ron Paul and Constitution (Aug 29)

CNBC: Samsung, Apple in tablet war (Aug 29)

Metal bling

in & out

5:49 am (Hawaii) In DGP before the end of after hours trading yesterday at 63.63. Sold at 64.62 this morning. Just got up a few minutes ago, missed the mini-run to 65+, but a little profit is fine with me before the day ends. Just not willing to be in a position over the weekend, especially PMs, with a Brit holiday on Monday and the threat of more margin requirement hikes in gold.

I'd rather wait it out, let the margin hikes hit spot price (even if there's no hike, the effect could be the same) and get a far better price.

Brother Turd Ferguson has been spot on of late with his outlook in PMs. A master, really. He could be wrong from time to time, but his perspective on the day-to-day is captivating. Indices are up modestly (0.8% to 1.6%). No reason to expect QE3 from the Helicopter later today but who knows how that turns out. Heading back to bed for now.

GSVC is above 17 now on yesterday's news of investment in Twitter. It's nearing that 19+ top. FAZ is down more than 1% though most banks on my Debt Spiral list are in red.

Update 6:06 am Okay I totally missed Bernanke's speech. Dow was -220 and I didn't know it. It was a 1-minute chart of AAPL that got my attention. (My TV is off and is staying off for now.) AAPL shot from 372 to 381 at roughly 10:15 am Eastern. It didn't make a difference for me. I still wanted out of DGP at some point today. But it explains how DGP ran to 65.50 or so.

Reuters: Bernanke quiet on next Fed moves, stresses job crisis

With no pronouncements or hints of a formalized QE3 or hidden facsimile, it's fine to be in cash.

Update 8:34 am DGP ran to 66.50 or so. Nice run by gold (1806) and silver. Both are running higher with the indices, which I didn't expect. That won't last forever.

Thursday cinema & library (updated 1030 pm HST)

Blogs

(new) Zero Hedge: Caution: Another gold margin hike imminent (Aug 25)

(new) Jake Gint: Hello darkness my old friend (Aug 26)

(new) Jim Sinclair: Selling against the angels expected (Aug 25)

> "For heaven's sake, stop barfing into weakness. Stop selling weakness and buying strength. That is a kindergarten type error."

(new) Monty Guild: Market commentary (Aug 25)

(new) SGS: WWSD (Aug 25)

(new) Le Fly: Prepare to get (Jackson) holed (Aug 25)

(new) Le Fly: The great showdown is near (Aug 25)

(new) Le Fly: Position update: GSVC (Aug 25)

(new) Le Fly: The Buffett deal is defensive (Aug 25)

Chris Duane (Silver Shield): Silver Shield's final warning (Aug 25)

> "We are on the knife's edge of a major shift that will make silver untouchable if you do not secure your metal right now."

Turd Ferguson: (pm) Looking better (Aug 25)

> Charts Gold Dec 15-min | Gold Dec 4-hour | Silver Sept 15-min | Silver Sept 4-hour

Turd Ferguson: (am) This ain't horseshoes (Aug 25)

> Charts Gold Dec 3-hour | Gold Dec 6-hour | Silver Sept 8-hour

Vlogs

H1INC: Warren Buffett: The retarded fuckery continues (Aug 25)

James Turk: Peter Spina interview at GATA (Aug 25)

APMEX: What will Fed chairman Ben Bernanke say tomorrow? (Aug 25)

Endless Mountain: Trading in paper rectangles (Aug 25)

Endless Mountain: Three silver charts I rely on the most (Aug 25)

Storm Clouds Gathering: Why we left the US (permanently) (Aug 25)

george4title: Sacramento powder coating company APC interview (Aug 25)

Christopher Greene: Buffett Bashing 101 (Aug 25)

Christopher Greene: Buffett strikes again! (Aug 25)

Keiser Report: Chris Martenson (Aug 24)

Wide Awake News: The 'LIE' of the storm (Aug 24)

Christopher Greene: 'The End of America' a tale of deception and misinformation (Aug 24)

Scrap Gold Business: Gold falls - Is gold and silver being manipulated? (Aug 24)

Audio

Reports
Rick Munarriz: There's no place like Zillow (Aug 25)

Video

Fox: Schiff: 'Bernanke is going to keep printing money!' (Aug 24)

Blog commentary

Metal bling

Alexiscom1: 999 silver bullion coins for UK, Canada and US (Aug 25)

Level headed

11:52 am (Hawaii) It's too bad I didn't trust the technicals, even 24 hours before Jackson Hole. Shortly before I fell asleep early this morning (4 am or so Hawaii time), I saw FAZ between 56 and 57. What I failed to see (I was dozing before that) is that it was below 53 to open. That should have and would have triggered alarm bells in my head. FAZ has consistently moved up after dipping that low for the past several weeks. Clockwork? Maybe.

This morning's buy-in by Buffett did the real work for FAZ dip-buyers. I don't have the total conviction necessary to scale in below 55, but it would've been a considerable possibility. I lean more toward staying status quo (all cash) until or through the Hole. But whoever bought FAZ at 55 or 57, watching it climb to 63 was a nice victory. Now trading at 61.50 after hours. I still believe FAZ goes to 100 eventually. By then, many of the large banksters in Euroland will be on the canvas, woozy and unable to continue. They'll get bought out by the biggest sharks in the industry.

AGQ is at a fascinating level — 220 — once again. I've noted before that a run from 220 to the previous high of 382 occurred when spot silver went from 40 to 49+. That's a 74% gain in AGQ and 25% gain in spot price. I don't know what AGQ does here; it's already gone from 250 (last week) to 200 (today's low). But 220 remains my magic level in AGQ, and depending on what transpires tomorrow, it may be the right time to re-enter a small position.

DGP was beastly as gold bounce off the 1700 level. DGP closed yesterday at 63.35, fell to 60.33 at today's open, dipped to 59.50 and there was reason for traders to be fearful. For physical gold (and silver) owners, it was another bump in the road. DGP rallied through the day and is at 64.00, near it's high. This is the level I entered at last week before the run to 72+, so my attention is piqued. (I got out at 68+.)

While I was away very early in the day, watching DGP below 60, of course I thought, well, this might be a rare opportunity to get in below a key level. But, I passed. Scaling in would've been okay too. But I knew I was about to hit the sack, and leaving stop-loss orders to the slimy tentacles of this market does not appeal to me.

DZZ was in good territory early, naturally, hitting a high of 5.19. All downhill from there. Same with ZSL. With the indices down (DJ -170.89, Nas -48.06, S&P -18.33) nearly 2% each by the close, volume was low and momentum was one-directional rather than chaotic. In fact, there was a point early in the session when all three indices were trading just a few points up or down as if this were a 19th century market.

Back to the banksters. BAC was at nearly 9.00 early, but sold off and is at 7.62 (+9%) today on a deal that the TV chatterheads are saying is a lopsided deal in Buffet's favor (of course). Funny how FAZ benefited from this and the Euro banks tanked. Clearly, the market smells the b.s. and steers clear more than ever.

This is what the market is saying more and more:

• Bernanke will say little but that he has his weapons on hand to maneuver when necessary. Some say he has only one bullet left. This would leave the market yawning, as the moves this week have priced in this expectation.

• Bernanke could say absolutely nothing, mention no bias toward action, and the market (and precious metals) would tank. He has never leaned toward austerity. Ever. Pure Keynesian. This would hurt both the bulls and bears. Unlikely, but you never know.

• Bernanke could say that a renewed, global, coordinated effort is underway to restructure debt, create a new form of transaction (currency?) and include the possibility of a truly sound fiscal system, i.e. backed by a combination of commodities (gold?). This is almost an impossibility since he prefers printing dollars to all other options. It's almost as if he's been told from above (not necessarily Obama) that if he does not print dollars, the coming explosion in unemployed ragers (people about to go off unemployment checks) would decimate cities, and there isn't enough security to contain a nationwide series of riots and looting.

So, how can he not print more fiat? Today's move in gold is a tell. The market knows Helicopter Ben has no choice, and if someone else were in his shoes yodeling to the hills that there are other options besides fractional reserve banking, that fella would be extinguished promptly.

In other words, the system is focked, I'm glad some of my dollars are now hard metal, and there is some peace of mind in being unmarried to stocks at this turbulent, unpredictable time.

Note: GSVC up strong today on news of investment developments, including one in Twitter. Le Fly has noted that this was coming, and GSVC is up 14% to 16.05. Makes me wish I hadn't sold at 12+, but I won't chase here. If the market gets chaotic tomorrow, it could easily sell back down to 14 and lower. I'd love to scale back in below 14. Downside in a worst-case post-Jackson Hole scenario could be 12. Best case would be a quick run to 19 (all-time high) and beyond.

Buffett can't save the banksters

4:06 am (Hawaii) No matter what "they" do, they can't save this market while it is still filled with toxins. Buffet has purchased, what, five or six billion dollars worth of BAC preferred shares. This prolongs the inevitable, but for now, that has most financials in green this morning. Yet, the indices have drifted from break even to negative. I have no hate for Buffett. In fact, I'll be thanking him maybe. FAZ is now down to 56+ and once it hits 55, it'll be at support. 55 is where FAZ drifts to before some Euro bank craps out a load of bad news once every two or three weeks.

Not planning to automatically buy FAZ at 55, but now that price is on the radar thanks to Buffett, I'm keeping a close eye on it.

Gold and silver are down again, and I don't even care what the spot price is. I'm all cash, saving in physical and not selling that. DZZ was at 4.90 or so after hours yesterday, was at 4.95 in premarket today, and has gone as high as 5.19 already. Now at 5.04.

DGP (60.87) and AGQ (206.09) are at attractive levels, but that's not enough for me to scale in yet. I'm content to wait through tomorrow's Jackson Hole bizness. The lack of stress from being untethered to this space alien machine market is refreshing.

Wednesday cinema & library (updated Thur 2 am HST)

Waimea South Mechanics Library Institute

Tasman District, New Zealand

Blogs

(new) Jesse's Cafe Americain: 'Looks like an option expiration week' (Aug 24)

(new) Dan Norcini: HUI once again retreats below 580 (Aug 24)

(new) King World News: Ben Davies: 'We see unprecedented physical gold demand' (Aug 24)

(new) King World News: Louise Yamada: Gold, silver still solid, but avoid stocks (Aug 24)

(new) King World News: John Embry: $2,500 gold to end the year wouldn't shock me (Aug 24)

(new) SGTbull07: PMs pummeled, brutalized, left for dead — what a joke (Aug 24)

(new) SGS: Talk about timing! (Aug 24)

(new) The American Dream: 14 conspiracy theories that media now admits are conspiracy facts (Aug 24)

James Altucher: 7 things I learned from the first blogger (Aug 24)

> Charles Schultz

Le Fly: How 'bout a late summer rally (Aug 24)

Turd Ferguson: (pm) Turd tips his hat (updated for margin hike) (Aug 24)

Le Fly: The refiners are buys (Aug 24)

Jim Willie: Panic and anxiety swirl a storm (Aug 24)

> "Prepare for $2100 gold by January, and $60 silver by January. Like last year, the months of September through January will be ones for the history books."

(new) Philosopher's Stone: US Mint suspends all numismatic (eagles) gold coins (Aug 23)

> "Proves no physical gold to be had? No silver eagles available either."

The Fundamental View: Time to take a closer look at gold (Aug 23)

SGS: JP Morgan and Bank of America? Where did you hear that first? (Aug 23)

Gary North: Roubini, Marx and Keynes (Aug 20)

Vlogs

(new) Man of Truth: On the beach for 30 minutes in Carmel (Aug 24)

(new) Silver Futurist: Gold, silver way down, what is the fair price? (Aug 24)

(new) george4title: Becoming an economic nomad: G4T in Vegas (Aug 24)

David Morgan: 10 rules for silver investing (Aug 24)

H1INC: $8000 gold? $500 silver? (Aug 24)

Endless Mountain: BAC technical analysis (Aug 24)

Endless Mountain: The Silver Log - More lower prices (Aug 24)

Keiser Report: The fainting bankers of Wall St (Aug 24)

Realist News: Why do precious metals get hit at the end of the month? (Aug 24)

Alexiscom1: Silver is -4%, Bank of America is +8%, is QE3 announcements coming? (Aug 24)

Realist News: Ready for big crash, part 2 - Bank of America in deep doodoo (Aug 23)

(new) Silver Futurist: $1900 gold!!! Now Suze Orman is saying sell gold (Aug 22)

Larry Edelson: Video market update (Aug 22)

organicheed: Epic meal time str8 from backyard organic garden (Aug 21)

James Turk: Egon von Greyerz interview (Aug 6)

Blog commentary

Turd Ferguson: Bottom projection? (Aug 24)

lakedweller2: Horror story of the minute (Fidelity) (Aug 24)

Audio

King World News: Peter Schiff (Aug 24)

> "50 is going to become the new support (for silver)."

Peter Schiff: Making money is controversial? Ron Paul's profitable portfolio (Aug 24)

Reports

Money News: Gold prices plunge 5.6% as economic fears ease (Aug 24)

Video

(new) NASA: Hurricane Irene from ISS (Aug 24)

Yahoo: Scott Bleier: How to find the market bottom (Aug 23)

Yahoo: Bleier: 4 reasons a bear market looms (Aug 22)

Yahoo: Bleier: Don't buy stocks until everyone turns bearish (Aug 22)

Like nothing ever changed

7:57 am (Hawaii) Just closed your eyes, breathe deeply and this could be a month ago, a season ago. LULU up 10%. GMCR up 9.4%. BIDU up 6%. NFLX, oh, Netflix, up 5.5%. AAPL up 2.5%. Just beautiful, mindless moves higher. YOKU up 5.1%. GOOG 3.5% higher. The effect of free monopoly money, printed to no end by Helicopter Ben.

Problem is, the market is up today without provocation. It was due for a bounce in the midst of this 2 or 3 week slow-motion crash. Gold is down into the 1860 area after flirting with 1915 or so overnight. Silver has backed up to 42.50 after visiting 44.00 again. All natural, as they say. I don't suspect CME mafia involvement this time. It feels like normal profit-taking. Come on. AAPL shouldn't be below 350 anyway. It's up more than $10 to 366+.

When Helicopter Ben alludes to any form of QE3 on Friday, the indices will race higher than today's gains (DJ +1.8%, Nas +2.5%, S&P +1.8%). It could be good for 1,000 points on the S&P 500 (currently 1,142). But there probably won't be another run like QE2. The general public is past the point of fantastical whims and lies. More people know the fractional reserve banking system is the real bubble. Video of riots in major cities across the globe do not lie. So I expect plenty of turbulence and roller coaster action.

I'm trying to leave my modest position in DGP alone, whether it hovers near its high (72.25) or today's low (69.15). I got up around 7 am Hawaii time, so it was much too late to ride today's momentum on the bullish route. Keeping my eyes on AAPL, FAS, DZZ, ZSL. Also QQQ, BIDU. More than likely I do nothing. With DJ up 180 points, maybe it catches fire into the close, or maybe it fizzles a little.

Update 8:08 am CNBC reporting that an earthquake hit Virginia and was felt as far as headquarters up near New York City and far west as Detroit. Market remains near its highs for today. It was a 6.0 quake.

Tuesday evening cinema & library (updated 2 am HST)

Waikiki

12:00 pm (Hawaii) He's right about this.

Cramer: Bernanke just shot Treasury bonds in the back of the head, making equities the most attractive place to go. He guaranteed that CDs won't keep pace with the rate of inflation.

Update 1:40 pm (Hawaii) Really tempted to start scaling into AAPL and/or add to DGP. I had this dilemma yesterday with DGP at 60.27 and opted to not add. DGP now at 63.25 as Asia trading begins. Asia has been big on gold lately while price comes down stateside, though hardly enough to stop this gargantuan run.

I won't mind staying put here and saving some powder for tomorrow, but the possibility of Bernanke staying quiet for 17 more days (Jackson Hole) could permit upside momentum to go wild. There's also the possibility that further chaos in Euro and/or US banks could lead to another series of crashes. For now, the momo is rising, so ... then again, the robot space alien machines put the turbo boost into final hour of trading. These evil machines could easily take the market back into the red before the opening bell tomorrow.

It's a maddening environment. I'd like to run my fingers through a treasure chest of shiny gold coins and be done with the lunacy.

My Regular watch list is 84% green going into the close of after hours trading. Metals list is 72% green. Volume is fairly strong across the board. Machines?

Update 2:00 pm (Hawaii) Scott Nations: "Our markets cannot rally as long as a bunch of people think they're better off holding gold."

Really? I'm in favor of both: ride the market up or down, and accumulate physical gold and silver.

Just opened a medium position in AAPL (at 375.45) and added more DGP (at 63.40), both before the close of after hours trading. Spot gold is at $1,763.60/oz. Basically, it's the angel price of Jim Sinclair. That's not why I'm adding here, though. If the market tanks, gold will protect. If the market rises, Asia has proven enough that it will continue to keep gold moving forward and higher. The debt crises of the US and Europe (and soon, the real estate bubble of China) are all intact.

Fucking beats losing to inflation every day.

Update 2:15 pm (Hawaii) Liesman (CNBC): Pegging the date (mid-2013) makes this Fed move more powerful than QE2 was.

Anybody believe him?

Blogs

(new) Turd Ferguson: (pm) Silver to $44 (Aug 9)

> Gold 3-hour chart | hourly chart | 15-minute chart

(new) Jim Sinclair: In the news today (Aug 9)
(new) Silver Shield: 10 reasons why gold is gut reaction, why silver is smart decision (Aug 9)
David Schawel: Stealth QE3 is upon us (Aug 9)

> "Not the explicit 'Operation Twist' that many expected, but essentially the same thing."

Dave Fry: Market volatility on steroids (Aug 9)
Le Fly: (pm) Can we resist the temptation? (Aug 9)
> "Providing the ECB controls the bond vigilantes in Europe, there is no reason to believe we will not charge higher by another 500 Dow points."
Scott Blier: Downgrade? Phhhhhhtttttt... (Aug 9)
chessNwine: (pm) Multi-punch combinations (Aug 9)
Le Fly: (pm) The Chuck Bennett Bottom (Aug 9)
Le Fly: (pm) We're on our own (Aug 9)
Le Fly: (pm) Happy to get some of my money back (Aug 9)

SGS: Fed to keep rates at record lows (Aug 9)
Scott Blier: (am) Hoping for a black helicopter... (Aug 9)

Mineweb: Next leg up for silver could take it to $65-76/oz - Morgan (Aug 9)

King World News: Nigel Farage: London on fire, so is gold, millions terrified (Aug 9)

King World News: Stephen Leeb: Silver to hit $200 within 24 months (Aug 9)

Turd Ferguson: (am) Never doubt Santa (Aug 9)

> Gold 10-minute chart | 15-minute chart

Turd Ferguson: (am) The madness continues (Aug 9)

barnone11967: Gold's all-time new high of $1,774.30 (Aug 9)

george4vlogging: London riots = insurrection, coming to US soon (Aug 9)

SGS: No title needed, this must be a free market choice (Aug 9)

Jake Gint: (am) Timing the flip (Aug 9)
chessNwine: Might as well have an olde fashioned crash (Aug 8)
Jake Gint: And away we go (Aug 8)
Scott Blier: They bought a year for $600 billion (Aug 8)
Scott Blier: Argue with me, but you'd be wrong (Aug 8)
Scott Blier: Dow chart showing 10900 as THE level (Aug 8)

Blog commentary
theedge111: 'I have yet to hear what the earnings ratios are if we slip into a recession' (Aug 9)

Vlogs

chessNwine: Stock market recap (Aug 9)
Realist News: Worried about silver? LOL, why? (Aug 9)

endlessmountain: The Silver Log - Silver, gold, Bernanke and Jeopardy (Aug 9)

Casey Research: The Great American Debt Crisis (Aug 9)

silverfuturist: Another gold high $1752 with silver flat (Aug 9)

Jim Comiskey: (am) Daily market insights - Metals futures (Aug 9)

BrotherJohnF: Silver update - Game changer (Aug 9)
chessNwine: (am) Prior stock market crashes (Aug 9)

barnone11967: Riot in London, market rising, bailout for Bank of America (Aug 9)

> Perspective of someone who has never traded a stock

ScrapGoldBusiness: Fork Report - JPM predicts gold to $2500? I don't think so (Aug 9)

Realist News: Monday Bloody Monday (Aug 8)

SGTbull07: Meltdown: Gold explodes, Chapman interview (part 1) (part 2) (Aug 8)

Audio
King World News: Nigel Farage (Aug 10)

King World News: Peter Schiff (Aug 9)

Reports

(new) Rick Munarriz: Baidu's talk is cheap (Aug 9)

Business Insider: Stocks, bonds, Swiss francs on a ridiculous face-ripping rally (Aug 9)

Federal Reserve: Press release (Aug 9)

Business Insider: Fed extends super-low rates until 2013, may use more tools (Aug 9)

Business Insider: Richard Koo: The ratings agencies may destroy global economy once again (Aug 9)

Business Insider: German politicians want Spain, Italy to sell off gold (Aug 9)

Business Insider: Perpetual ZIRP and one-way street (Aug 9)

Video

(new) Bloomberg: Marc Faber on the Fed and gold (Aug 9)

RT: Celente: 'S&P downgrade is an Archduke Ferdinand moment' (Aug 9)

MSNBC: Dylan Ratigan on political panic (Aug 9)

Who's watching who?

5:12 am (Hawaii) Finally awake as of 4:20 am here. Took awhile to get the cobwebs out. Woke to find the Dow up 200 points, not a surprise after the huge surge in futures in the middle of the night. Funny how "rumors" get around that way. By the time Helicopter Ben begins his press conference in 3 hours, will the market be surprised if he announces QE3? And if he does, where do the indices go?

Currently:
DJ 10,939 (+129, +1.1%)
Nas 2,142 (+54, +2.3%)
S&P 1,137 (+18, +1.7%)

A QE3 announcement or strong hint would push everything higher at warp speed, but would S&P 500 go back to 1,333? I have my doubts.

My Regular watch list is 77% green, strongly bullish. GNK (+15%), SINA (+10.6%), Citi (+10%), LNKD (+9.7%) ... a ton of plays are up more than 3%. Includes BIDU (+7.5%), NFLX (+3.7%) and AAPL (+3.9%).

DGP, XG and GSVC are all up, so I'm a little happy, but this is so temporary. Just about everything is up except a few stragglers and spot silver. Silver miners like EXK are barely positive (+0.4%). Spot silver near its low of the day at 37.64. No surprise there. JP Morgan is, in all likelihood, as short silver as it is long gold.

Spot gold is well off its overnight high, now 1732 after hitting 1780. What a crazy run. Metals list is 60% green, led by AVL (+15.3%), REE (+8.1%), MCP (+7.2%) and ZSL (+6.3%). My Debt Spiral list is 86% green, with only FAZ red (-11.6% to 70.48). FAS is making its QE3 run (+10.6%), as expected ... but is this QE3 day?

Now's not the time to go long, certainly, and definitely not long in a large way. Most stocks are near their opening-bell prices. Bernanke and the Fed will probably say they're aware and prepared to boost the market when necessary, and that'll be enough to tide everybody over until Jackson Hole on the 26th. But if he says nothing, the shitstorm will return.

With the chaos in the ME and now London (four days now), fear is becoming prevalent. That's another factor, the visuals. It happened last year when Greece first erupted, and the TV reports sank the market. Now there's the helicopter/SEALs takedown/shooting controversy in Afghanistan, and all eyes are on the White House. The mood is sombre, to say the least. Pressure's on the Fed to make this Christmas.

I'm prepared for either direction. Still holding my little positions of DGP, XG and GSVC.

War rooming

9:32 am (Hawaii) Planning for tomorrow. DGP remains attractive, whether or not JP Morgan is bullish ($2,500/oz call today after Friday's $1,850 call). AGQ is moving off its low (196) of today, but it's apparent that JPM is probably shorting/yoyoing silver for sure profits. I can't completely escape the puppetry of JPM/CME mafia. They are involved in just about every aspect of the market, and after they got the TARP billions, why wouldn't they assume they've been rewarded for such manipulative behavior? (Same with BAC, which got bailed out and still tried to foreclose on homeowners, even people who had paid off their homes and had nothing to do with BAC.)

FAZ is still in my picture, bouncing off the 73 level and now at 76+. I'm not going to bet against Helicopter Ben, but FAZ will move one way or another tomorrow, so FAS is also in play for a quick trade possibility.

He, Mr. Bernanke, is inescapable, as well. If he gives the slightest hint that he will print beeeeellions of dollars, that's bullish short term for the economy and silver. But if he purses his lips and refuses to print, we'll get a selloff that will make today and Friday look like nothing.

Jeff Christian on CNBC now. Says gold is topping. Could get to $2,500, but can't see the economy getting that bad. Prefers platinum, palladium. I remember a few months back, he called for silver to drop to the 20s. Is he a mouthpiece for JP Morgan? He's not offering fundamentals. All he's saying is the economy won't or can't get worse. That's his analysis?

He adds that not that many people are buying physical gold despite low premiums. He says the pricing pressure comes from the futures market. But didn't CNBC just report earlier that 18 million ounces of gold were sold last month? Maybe Jeff Christian is correct. But he's not exactly selling gold. He advises to use puts, which is wise. But in this guy, I just sense someone who is responding not to fundamentals, but to the full breadth and skill of the puppeteers. He knows silver and gold can be toyed with, gold less so with this kind of microscope. I doubt he'd ever go in any direction 100%, even if he believed so.

Update 9:43 am (Hawaii) There goes FAZ, now above 77 again. Wow. I expected more selling, but the pullback "only" went to 73+, which was the 38.2% Fibonacci retrace level for today's gain. Still too tough to call because of FOMC tomorrow.

Still long small positions in DGP, XG and GSVC.

Update 10:00 am (Hawaii) That wasn't easy. DGP was so tempting at 60.27. FAZ moved toward 80 in the final minutes. But it all comes back to the FOMC meeting tomorrow, and if there's a rumor or clue long before that of QE3, FAZ would give back possibly most of today's gain, and gold would sell off some. Best to wait.

Update 10:17 am (Hawaii) Yesterday, I pictured FAZ (62 at the time) selling off on Tuesday's FOMC/possible QE3 hint meeting down to previous support levels (44-45). That wasn't a bad guess, but it's all moot with today's huge move. If Helicopter Ben comes out with both barrels blazing, FAZ could get knocked back to yesterday's closing price (62.30) or lower. But eventually, it's going to 100. I still think this.

Update 11:44 am (Hawaii) Just back from some errands and FAZ just showed 81.20 afterhours. Amazing. DGP holding steady at 60.45.

Update 11:56 am (Hawaii) Top gainers on my lists include FAZ, TWM, FSG, QID, SCO, DGP, UGL, AGOL, GOLD, AGQ, GLD, IAU, SGOL, NGD, TBAR< EGO, UBG, DBP, GLTR — all at least 2% higher. SLV was up 1.98%. Overall, my Metals list was 43% green today, leaving rare earths and other metal plays behind.

Watching my recording of Fast Money and, as usual, they cut off Peter Schiff and Seymour had no real answer for Schiff's ongoing bullishness on gold. They're both right to different extents. Schiff has been dead-on right about everything the past few years. Seymour doesn't have a real macro view going forward. This is why I read and watch Schiff more than any of the Fast Money guys, though Jon Najarian always has interesting info. Also, Terranova views gold as a barometer for market sentiment. If and when gold pulls back, it's bullish for equities, Terranova says.

I think that's true, but gold won't pull back a ton. The long-term effects of economic disaster are still intact. Instead of moaning and groaning about it, it should be played accordingly.

So ... FAZ is 81.30. I feel a little like Charlie Brown.

Back to war rooming.

Waiting game

4:49 pm (Hawaii) No surprise since that rocketship-blast surge at the open of overseas trading. Gold slightly off its high at 1693 and silver off its high at 40.14. My plan remains intact, no additional physical purchases, but possibly trade AGQ and/or add more DGP, maybe FAZ, when stateside trading begins in about nine hours. Ride either higher until before the close and use the profits to buy more physical.

However . . .

I nearly forgot that the last couple of sessions were marked by noon-time (Eastern) selloff/puppeteering, so that might be the best time to unload any short-term position. Had I thought of the real possibilities to the downside — beyond what destruction we've already seen to our economies — I would've held that small position in FAZ on Friday and used it as a long-term position. Thinking in terms of long- and short-term positions is key here, and so is completely emptying out of positions that are completely dead money.

I could define my GSVC position as dead money, but when QE3 arrives, it will lift back to previous levels, possibly to its high (near 20). But that's not a concern right now. I don't expect a lot of chatter from Helicopter Ben on Tuesday. Instead, I think there will be stimulus via new routes. They don't want the market rocketing right here, not yet, and they don't want it to completely crater, either. My guess is BB and the puppeteers want the market to go sideways until Jackson Hole on the 26th.

I doubt that picture will be drawn, though. If and when QE3 kick in, I've got my dry powder and I'll put it right there in the fire and fuel for a short-term profit, if I'm nimble.