Just another uneventful, ordinary day

8:01 am (Hawaii) Spent the past hour or so occupied with work, but now I'm back to see the Dow down "only" 290 points. Quite a comeback. It could be back to -400 in 5 minutes, I know, I know, I know. But FAZ is down below 67 and SocGen is down just 12.8% after being shredded to -22% earlier in the day. Everything has its limits and when the limits are stretched too far, just like Le Fly says, there's a rubber-band, snapback result. Eventually.

Gold continues to stay near its highs. DGP is at 64.50. But silver is roaring today. Probably a massive short-covering, but it was due. AGQ at 204.75 after hitting an intraday high of 207.03. Do the puppeteers dare naked it short silver back to 160? Possibly. I'm not touching ZSL or AGQ right now unless a new catalyst hits the market. AGQ is up 10.5% here, topping my Metals list.

AG (+10.6%), FSG, GSS, NUGT, PSLV, EXK, SVM, GPL, NGD, REE ... all at least 7% up for the day with less than 2 hours left. I wonder how well the silver and gold miners will hold up if the market continues to slide downhill. Is this a brief respite from the hellhole that miners had been buried in for weeks and months? Or is this move going to be long term since gold is becoming more popular with human beings who hate seeing their hard-earned fiat dollars turn to shit because of inflation and a fucked-up monetary system?

I tend to think it's the latter.

Might be a nice play in AAPL going into the bell. Now at 372, just off its high of the day. I got out at this level early in the session. I just don't see, hear, smell a catalyst that can sustain a run higher. Hmm...

Here goes the roller coaster

8:23 pm (Hawaii) I sorta expected some kind of news out of Washington tonight that both parties had mashed their puny brains together the past 48 hours to come up with some semblance of improvement in their negotiations over this debt ceiling issue. (I'd call it a disaster, but until China finally decides to get out of the dunking booth and put its big foot on our neck, it's "only" an issue.)

Apparently, Boehner went on air today and added fuel to the fire. Both sides are spewing fire, i.e. playing to the audience. Hey, free air time is free air time, especially with elections getting closer. It's not just Boehner, of course, but actually everyone in the House and Senate and White House who has yet to come out and articulate the honest truth. Well, actually, Ron Paul is the only guy who has consistently merited our collective attention for speaking without forked tongue.

Anyway, Spot Silver is 40.62, up a tidy sum from Friday's close of 40.07. Spot Gold is at 1616, up from Friday's close of 1600. Not a surprise with the post-market bickering of both President Obama and Boehner. So I'm taking this approach.

1. I waited until the hour before the Asian markets opened today to pick up more precious. I wanted both gold and silver, but with gold near an all-time high, plus the small positions of XG and DGP in my hand, I opted to acquire more physical silver. Besides, my physical stack is about 50-50, and I'd like to lean more toward the white metal in the long run, while price is still at this level. With spot at 40.17 before Asia opened, I was content. Not happy, but content, to increase my silver stack by roughly 55%.

2. If somehow Boehner and Obama find middle ground and happy talk of an agreement hits the market today or tomorrow, fine. I'm prepared to see PM prices slide, which will allow me to acquire more at cheaper prices: 35, 32 ... even 29 would be great. I've chiseled my way into physical and that approach has done well for me. Less pressure on trying to time things perfectly, and my average spot price entry has been around 34-36 for silver.

3. Probably — I put it at 75% — there will be no real progress on these talks until Wednesday at the earliest as both sides try to gauge where the public is throwing its support. If polls show that we are blaming one side or the other rather than blaming both, then that losing side will have to cave in quite a bit. Boehner is right that higher taxes will NOT help small businesses and lead to higher unemployment rates down the road. But I can't say I'd side with him, either. Whoever is calling the shots (in real terms) for the military will have to back down and get us out of these six wars before there is any sign of REAL progress in our debt crisis. Otherwise, it's all just chatter, a deal gets made by Aug 2 and life goes back to "normal."

4. Until an agreement is made, gold and silver climb. That's why it's key to keep an eye on price, maybe put in stop-loss orders (which I'm loathe to do) to protect profits. If this stretches out until next week Monday (Aug 1), that's great news for short-term gold and silver traders. So I plan to keep holding DGP and XG, and will likely trade AGQ and EXK in this scenario, with an itchy finger to get the heck out once a deal is made on Capitol Hill.

5. After the lovin ... when metal prices slide in the post-agreement ecstacy, I'll be looking for the bottom. Once stocks are done riding back up on this orgy of fake progress/kicking the can/expanding the credit-card line/drinking to sobriety, it will be time to load up on physical gold and silver like never before. Not you. I'm talking about me. I'll back up the truck and buy unprecedented amounts. Question is, will that discount price be silver at 40 (after a fall from 46 or 50)? Will that be gold at 1600 after a fall from 1650 or 1685?

Or will the fall in metals on the news of a debt ceiling agreement (and possible QE3 announcement) send PMs crashing through recent support? Will we see silver back at 32? Gold at 1490?

I'm prepared for any of these scenarios. (I may play ZSL short term in that stage of this crisis.) That's why I adhere to a slower approach rather than try to keep up with the space machines. I might miss that OTHER scenario, the one where Gold explodes without slowing for months, finally settling into a level around 1800 ... where silver erupts to 75 without a pause. It's possible, no question, though unlikely for the time being.

Long run, both metals go to new heights because there is no cure for the national debt crisis. The nation is already bankrupt. No question. There's no cure. War is not a cure. It's the big bully taking everyone's lunch money, but it's not a solution long term. If and when we overtake Libya (I have my doubts there), what's the first thing we seize? Oil? Sure. But I guarantee you we'll be even quicker to corral every ounce of gold in those banks.

Whether we like this policy or not, the byproduct will be far more talk about gold than we could have ever anticipated. It will continue to arise in every pocket of hostile activity near and far. Wherever the US Dollar declines, talk of gold will emerge. It's the history of civilization, just rewritten in a new chapter. I don't enjoy that prospect, but I don't expect to sit idly by and see my hard-earned dollars, few as they are, turn into pennies due to my own negligence.

After all, I can't claim ignorance any more. It's either take action or take a beating. I continue to take action. The sooner the mercenaries on Capitol Hill get an agreement together, the better. I want more physical cheap and I want it now. But I can wait. I'll have to.

Metal that arrived a couple of weeks ago. Some silver rounds and ASE proofs. Silver secures sound sleep.

Coffee, cream and METAL MANIA! (updated)

8:24 am (Hawaii) It rained overnight in Honolulu. Weather was cool for a July night. Perfect sleeping weather. I just got up after a productive workout last night, and it's almost the end of the session. Did I miss anything?

Hell yes. I remember Turd Ferguson noting yesterday that, technically, he expects gold to break out to a new high, and if that happened ... fully bullish. Turn on the TV. Turn on the computer. I sorta dread this. If gold breaks out, good. My XG and DGP will do nicely, even at small quantities. But I sold out of AGQ two days ago at a loss of $12/share. Small, small position, but still.

The Metals list I keep is almost all green (79%). It's a wipeout day for Metals bears. Only the bearish ETFs and ETNs are red. The indices are all up. XG is up 5%, DGP up 1.3%. AGQ is up 10% to 195. I sold at 172. Again, my timing ... not so good. I'm glad I held some gold stocks. It's like selling FAZ last Friday instead of holding until Monday. That cost me some. But the AGQ sell just cost me roughly $600. That's on a small position, really small. And if silver continues to rise, AGQ keeps going up at double warp speed, who knows, maybe to its all-time high at 382 (April 28).

I can imagine it's been a wonderful day so far for metal bugs. But Turd's site is down. Has it been overwhelmed by all the excitement? I need my Turd & Turdites fix.

James Turk, in his consistent, almost monotone voice, has been pounding the table for gold for a few months. He keeps repeating that this will be (not could be) a breakout summer for gold. Yesterday, he said it would be like the summer of 1982, when Mexico's default led to a golden rocketship. Holy cow, Mr. Turk is probably correct.

Everything at the top of my Metals list gapped up and is already enjoying bigger volume than yesterday: AGQ, AG, NUGT, EGO, SVM, SIL, DBS, XG, SLV, PSLV, GOLD, GDXJ, SLW, PLTM, EXK, REE, GDX, COPX ... wait, I take that back. PLTM hasn't matched yesterday's volume yet. It's all almost too good to be true. Like a setup. But on this kind of volume? I doubt it. It's usually a thin market that gets toyed with and peon traders like me get puppeteered.

Is it this simple? Obama threatens to yank Social Security, and the market reads it as a desperate threat and confirmation that QE3 is on? Or what's-his-face on Capitol Hill, the Republican who caved in and compromised on the Democrats' offer yesterday ... that's what's driving this? I haven't had time to check yet. Maybe after a bowl of cereal.

Update 8:51 am (Hawaii) On the 15-minute chart, AGQ has never exploded like it did this morning at the open. There was major volume two days ago, when shares sold off. But this morning was to the upside in a gap up. Trying find an entry point is difficult here. After closing yesterday at 177.68, there's a lot of room to pull back.

Has the CME mafia and the govt lost control of the price? Is the manipulation over? Probably not on both counts. But yesterday and today show that even in the middle of what's supposed to be the summer doldrums, the market may be too powerful to shackle 100% of the time — especially when it comes to gold. That is where old money resides. Old BIG money.

Update 9:07 am (Hawaii) Excellent post at SilverGoldSilver.com by guest writer SRSrocco about commercial shorts losing grip on silver. I'll add it to the library reading list later today. I got to eat some cereal. Kept watching AGQ but couldn't find a suitable point of entry. Now it's pulling back below 196, it looks like ... feeling desperate to get in near the highs is never a good feeling, and rarely leads to good results. I like the feeling of buying cheap, it's just that I really don't expect AGQ to go back near 177 any time soon.

Only a rocket ship loaded with 10 trillion ounces of gold and silver from another galaxy could save the US economy here. And that would be bullish for PMs. Production/GDP/jobs aren't about to spike high in the next several months. Not even space aliens can repair that.

Silver and gold stars

11:06 am (Hawaii) Today's silver stars?

GPL 3.82 +0.22 (+6.1%) volume slightly up

SLW 36.75 +1.77 (+5.1%) volume slightly up

EXK 9.81 +0.44 (+4.7%) volume slightly down

PAAS 46.44 +1.59 (+3.6%) volume slightly down

SIL 25.01 +0.67 (+2.8%) volume up big

AG 20.28 +0.42 (+2.1%) volume slightly up

SVM 10.37 +0.13 (+1.3%) volume slightly up

AGQ 177.38 +2.18 (+1.2%) volume even

All are afterhours prices. Not a lot of depth in silver gainers, but notable.

Gold stars:

NUGT 32.65 +1.92 (+6.3%) volume slightly down

GG 52.45 +2.04 (+4.1%) volume up big

NGD 10.75 +0.40 (+3.9%) volume slightly up

EGO 16.37 +0.55 (+3.6%) volume slightly up

XG 14.50 +0.46 (+3.3%) volume slightly up

GDX 57.36 +1.74 (+3.1%) volume up

ABX 47.14 +1.26 (+2.8%) volume up

GDXJ 36.30 +0.80 (+2.3%) volume up big

DGP 50.76 +0.74 (+1.5%) volume up big

UGL 53.80 (+1.4%) volume slightly up

Fazzy, fizzly Friday and what is GSVC?

10:59 am (Hawaii) FAZ did me no good today and I got out before the closing bell with a miniscule loss ($30). It's the one ETF that I'd never hold overnight, with its whimsical flair and the constant puppetry exhibited by central banks and the Fed. Monday morning might be a good time to step back in.

Still holding AGQ, XG and DGP. With AGQ and XG flat after I opened positions, it was EXK that made a nice move higher during the day. My plan is to stay long these issues from time to time, and use dips to buy physical. Though there are dozens of gurus out there who insist that the global fiat currency house of cards could crumble any day, my take is it's still early enough to buy on dips rather than hot streaks. Silver is better at 33 than 49, better at 35 than 40. Same with gold, though I don't expect another sub-1500 drop.

Volume-wise, EXK had nearly as much as yesterday while gaining 2.5% to a high of 10.00. AGQ, similar volume. XG, very low volume on a slightly down (-0.7%) day — the pause the refreshes. (I really should've stayed in XG weeks ago at 9 or so, before Eric Sprott's involvement/purchase of shares.) XG at 14.12 afterhours. Volume in metals was generally solid, comparable to the rest of the week. SLW's volume was down today some; the stock has gone from 30 to 36 in two weeks.

The PMs have had two pieces of really interesting news recently. The first is that Andrew Maguire will speak on August 4 in London at GATA's annual metalpalooza event. He showed up on a video about China's new gold exchange (posted here a couple of times), disproving the non-believers who had insisted that Maguire is a figment of imaginations.

Second, India announced yesterday that it will import 350 tons of gold and 1,200 tons of silver in the 2011-12 fiscal year due to rising demand. As US jobs are outsourced more and more, India is one of the markets that has benefited. The middle class is swelling, they have money to spend on those beautiful Hindu-influenced pieces of jewelry, and PMs will be affected immensely.

AAPL is at 360, still rolling after yesterday's news about a possible deal with China Mobile. Here, the stock is close to an all-time high, which is astounding. Just a couple of weeks ago, AAPL was at 310. What Euro debt crisis??

Today wasn't just Aloha Friday, end of the week, blahblahblah. It also marked another huge gain for something called GSV Capital Corp. (GSVC), as noted by mad genius Le Fly here and here. The stock exploded 10.2% in today's session to 16.20, and that's coming off a major gap up in late June. That's when GSVC purchased a 15% share in an unknown internet loser known as Facebook and went from 10.27 to 13.90 overnight. The 225,000 shares at $29.28 per represent 15% of GSV's total portfolio. 

I joke about Facebook, but with that move, GSV Capital provided the market with a measurement of value. Because of GSVC, Facebook is now "valued" at 220 BEEEEEEEEEELLLLLIOOONNNNN dollars. Is it a joke? Who knows. GSVC consolidated for all of seven sessions before erupting once again today on huge (for them) volume, 456K shares. That's almost as many as the first rip on June 27.

GSVC's Yahoo summary page looks like a penny stock: mostly "NA". Outstanding shares: 3.34 million. It began trading in late April and there aren't truly visible statistics to measure it by. All that is known is that it is the only publicly traded entity besides Goldman Sachs to own a piece of Facebook. With Zynga being valued in the billions — who would've thought it a few years ago as Facebook users became addicted to online games like Farmville — this is a virtual world to be MINED. GSVC was available briefly for less than 11 bucks when the stock caved a few weeks back. Maybe that was the impetus that led to the Facebook move.

Whatever the case, on GSVC's first big move up to 13.90, the stock dipped back to the middle of that candlestick four sessions later to a temporary low of 13.55. Today's tenacious rise? A perfectly normally profit-taking move back to the middle of today's candlestick brings shares to roughly 15.55. Can I wait for that? Surely, if the market tanks next week, all things decline with it, including GSVC, AAPL, LULU, NFLX ... any hot stock.

But if the market does NOT tank, then 16.40 could be a bargain. I think I'll chisel in with a tiny piece today. This Facebook thing ... it might be big one day!

More, more, more about GSV

GSV Capital website

Le Fly: It's CMGI all over again (July 8)

AP: Nasdaq stocks posting largest percentage increases (July 8)

Seeking Alpha (OneMedPlace radio): Michael Moe interview (July 4)

AP: Nasdaq stocks posting largest percentage decreases (June 30)

Minyanville: GSV Capital announcing a stake in Facebook (June 29)

Seeking Alpha (Igor Greenwald): Do I hear $210 billion for Facebook (June 29)

CNN (Ken Sweet): Stocks soar on housing data (June 28)

Seeking Alpha (NakedValue.com): 6 wild story stocks you can't ignore (June 28)

Wall Street Journal: Stocks to watch (June 28)

CNN: Shares of GSV Capital Corp. climbed 5% in premarket (June 28)

Seeking Alpha (Ian Bezek): GSV Capital's 40% Facebook pop sets up great short (June 28)

Reuters: Wall Street Journal top stories (June 28)

CNN (Dan Primack): Zynga IPO is a market test for Facebook (June 28)

AP: Nasdaq stocks posting largest percentage increases (June 27)

CNN (Pan Primack): How GSV got Facebook at 'only' $70 billion (June 27)

(video) CNN: GSV Capital 'likes' Facebook (June 27)

Forbes (Tomio Geron): GSV Capital investment values Facebook at $70 billion (June 27)

AP: GSV Capital invests $6.6 million in Facebook (June 27)

CNN (Julianne Pepitone): GSV investment values Facebook at $70 billion (June 27)

Reuters: GSV takes stake in Facebook, valuing it at $70 billion (June 27)

Globe Newswire: GSV Capital invests in Facebook (June 27)

AP: Nasdaq stocks posting largest percentage decreases (June 16)

SEC: Form 10-Q for GSV Capital Corp. (June 13)

AP: Nasdaq stocks posting largest percentage decreases (June 13)

Forbes (Tomio Geron): GSV Capital makes its first investment in Kno (June 6)

SEC: Form 8-K, Other Events (June 6)

Globe Newswire: GSV Capital invests in Kno (June 6)

Globe Newswire: NeXt Innovation Corp. changes name to GSV Capital Corp. (June 1)

Forbes (Tomio Geron): With GSV Fund, the little guy can shoot for the next Facebook (May 16)

SEC: Form 8-K for NeXt Innovation Corp. (Apr 28)

Globe Newswire: NeXt Innovation Corp. prices IPO (Apr 28)

Wednesday midnight library & cinema

Sitar Library

9:18 pm (Hawaii) Another huge run for silver and gold, two days in a row following a three-day weekend. I didn't touch a thing, still mostly in cash with a bit of DGP and a growing stack of physical. Turd Ferguson warns against overexcitement, noting that the CME mafia often kneecaps the spot market 24 hours before jobs reports (due Friday).

This range between 33 and 39 can be unnerving if you have no plan. My plan is to ride it out with as much dry powder at my side as possible and load up gradually as the doldrums of summer cease. Patience is golden. If I've missed the boat, I've missed the boat. My favorite miners, XG and EXK, made huge gains again and topped my Metals list. It's not a lack of faith in their business models and potential. I am just another trader who is cautious about blatant manipulation by the CME mafia. I can wait. And wait.

Reports & Blogs

Gary North: Restoring liberty with three short laws (July 7 2011)

Andrew Maguire: This will destroy gold, silver shorts (July 6 2011)

Turd Ferguson: Putting the 'fraud' in fraudulent (July 6 2011)

Zero Hedge: Coming 'New World Order' revolution (July 6 2011)

Star-Advertiser: Mineral-rich ocean mud stirs environmental fears (July 6 2011)

James Turk: Commencement of QE3 to send Dollar into oblivion (July 5 2011)

Robert Wiegand: Gold to be confiscated at $2,000 (Feb 19 2011)

Video

Jim Comiskey: Daily market insights - metals (July 6 2011)

george4title: Charlie Veitch: U-turn on conspiracies and 9/11 (July 6 2011)

george4vlogging: The system is breaking down before our eyes (July 6 2011)

David Morgan: Striking a silver proof coin, Old Glory Mint (July 6 2011)

silverfuturist: Silver up! Marc Faber on kneecapping (July 6 2011)

endlessmountain: The silver log - market stages (July 6 2011)

James Turk: Claus Vogt interview (July 4 2011)

Roger Wiegand: Gold, silver confiscation interview (Feb 16 2011)

Tuesday night library & cinema (updated 9 pm HST)

2:01 pm (Hawaii) I may surely live to regret not backing up the truck for some AAPL, BIDU, NFLX, XG, AGQ and EXK today. Volume was substantial in most of these shares, and if I'm wrong in assuming that each is due for a minor consolidation (or worse) after a week to the upside, then it shall sucketh that I waited too long. The only thing that made sense today — Portugal was downgraded to junk level by Moody's (only a few months behind the market) — was the financials all in red. FAZ was up, as it should be. Why it isn't up every day is a wonder. But the market is schizo, manipulated, yadayada, and that's why I don't take unnecessary risks.

Financials down, precious metals up. Now THAT makes sense.

Note: Pete Najarian says AAPL goes right to 400 from here. I'm not saying he's right or wrong, just passing it along. Then there's James Altucher, who was also on Fast Money, insisting that we don't really have any basis with which to judge QE2 yet, and that the Dow is going to 20,000 by the end of 2012.

I'm still a little surprised that the CME mafia didn't take metals to the woodshed over the three-day weekend. I probably wasn't alone and today was boosted in large part by a lot of short covering. Just a guess. I'm still deep in cash, small position in DGP and growing stack of metals.

Spot silver tapering off to 35.33 after spending the previous 24 hours below 34.50.

Update 3:36 pm (Hawaii) Apmex has another flash sale: 99¢ over spot for a 100 oz Johnson Matthew silver bar. Started this morning, ends tomorrow (Wednesday). The bar is a beautiful thing, no doubt about it. But why would I want something that huge? If I needed to sell it, I would get spot price in return, probably. Finding a buyer for something that costs $3,600 or so is TOUGH. I'd rather have $3,600 worth of American Silver Eagles, 100 in all, than one big brick of silver.

If I were a gazillionaire, it wouldn't matter. I'd actually line the walls of my playpen/mancave with thousands of silver bars, floor to ceiling. But I'm not a gazillionaire. Yet.

Reports & Blogs

(new) MarketWatch: The next, worse financial crisis (July 6 2011)

(new) (audio) Chris Martenson: Eric Sprott interview (July 5 2011)

(new) (transcript) Chris Martenson: Eric Sprott: Paper markets are a joke (July 5 2011)

(new) Examiner: RICO suits against two banks = metals to soar (July 4 2011)

Le Fly: Sell the debt ceiling news (July 5 2011)

Video

(new) Nigel Farage: Isn't the EU as bad as the USSR, Mr. Tusk? (July 6 2011)

(new) Peter Schiff: Christina Romer is wrong (July 6 2011)

(new) Max Keiser: Greece robbed and securitized (July 5 2011)

(new) James Altucher: Dow heading to 20,000 (July 5 2011)

(new) BrotherJohnF: Silver update - debt (July 5 2011)

(new) Turd Ferguson: Not excited yet (July 5 2011)

(new) stellaconcepts: Understanding the silver derivatives market (July 5 2011)

(new) george4title: The new economic paradigm for middle-class Americans (July 5 2011)

Mike Maloney: The Difference (July 5 2011)

Nigel Farage: The Worm has Turned (July 5 2011)

Jim Comiskey: Daily market insights - metals (July 5 2011)

drutter: 'You can't eat silver!' (July 5 2011)

(video repaired) bullorbearreport: How to buy gold at $10 over spot (July 5 2011)

chessNwine: Stock market recap (July 5 2011)

silverfuturist: Silver up! Newsletter writers makes millions (July 5 2011)

(new) stellaconcepts: SGTBull07 and Bix Weir '500:1' (July 4 2011)

(new) silverfuturist: Silver vs. mining stocks and ... a goat (July 4 2011)

(new) SGTbull07: Why Silver, Why Now? (Dec 7 2010)

(new) InflationUS: The Day the Dollar Died (Nov 24 2010)

James Altucher: Dow heading to 20,000

Reign of the metals

8:11 am (Hawaii) Just up from a nice night of sleep. It's cloudy and somewhat cool in Honolulu, a day after the 4th of July. The real fireworks are happening in precious metals.

SVM is up 11.3% to 10.12 on massive volume. EXK up 10.2% to 9.03 on massive volume. AGQ up 8.8%, average volume. AG up 8.2%, massive volume. GPL up 7.1% on solid volume. NUGT up 6.3% on good volume. SLW up 6% on decent volume. EGO up 6% on good volume. PSLV up 4.6% on average volume. DBS up 4.5% on modest volume.

SLV, SIL, NGD, XG, FSG, GDXJ, GG, PAAS, DGP, UGL, WITE, ABX, GDX, GLTR, PSAU, PALL, DBP — all up more than 2%. Just about all are also off their highs of the day. Why such bullishness? Is it rumor that the debt ceiling will be increased (again)? Possibly.

73% of my Metals list is green. What's not working? ZSL, obviously. DUST also down big. REE is sinking, -5.4% after Japan released news of a major rare earths find on a nearby seabed. Getting all that up to surface is challenge, but the info was enough to hit REE and AVL hard. MCP is down "only" 1.1%.

Crude is up, the indices are flat. Metals up big. I remained heavy in cash going into this week. If we have already hit a bottom in silver and gold, if James Turk and other goldbugs are correct in predicting a monster run in PMs this summer, this would be the time to move in. (Actually, it would've been last week when spot silver was below 34.) But I'm still in wait-and-see mode. My favorite miners remain EXK and XG, but I've got no position in them. I won't be walking in at these levels. If anything, I'll start with a small position on a dip and see how the week plays out.

One thing is for sure: volume in silver is heavy today, for whatever reason. Maybe hedge funds are piling in because they already loaded up on stocks last week. That money has to go somewhere and the hedgies tend to move in packs.

Update 8:33 am (Hawaii) Between AAPL, AMZN and BIDU — big boys with growth — BIDU continues to move up with strength in volume. AAPL and AMZN are up today, but volume has petered out. Not touching any of these for now. BIDU could reverse any time and the flaky behavior of the indices seem to indicate that the bull run of the past week is slowing.

NFLX is up 6.8% on major volume, now trading at 286+.

Easy come, easy go

9:10 am (Hawaii) Is this a paper mache market today? I woke up a few times in the past few hours, checked volume, and went back to sleep. Traders who stepped in on Monday and early today made their profits, but beyond today, it's all fluff, I'm guessing. Though my Regular watch list is 82% green, just about every upside play has anemic volume. A few have similar volume to yesterday or volume that's close to average. But a large majority are up on hardly any trading. Major caution sign!

Monster Worldwide (MWW) is an exception. Big volume, nice candlestick. CYB (Wisdom Tree Chinese yuan fund) is also up on huge volume. I'm always interested in ways to play yuan long term. Anyone (not me) with a huge stack of benjamins in the bank has to think about buying a significant amount of yuan to hedge against inflation.

73% of my Metals list is green, but it's the same trap there with light volume. It's true that there have been big moves, week-long moves, right after stocks trade lightly. Maybe we just don't have any sellers left. Maybe China saving the Eurozone (temporarily) is enough. Maybe the Fed buying up Treasurys is enough. Maybe Nike beating expectations is plenty. But I'm not sold on this.

The one byproduct of today's gains (DJ +1.1%, Nas +1.3%, S&P +1.1%) is that silver's downward momentum has finally stopped, at least for today. GPL (+5.9%), EXK (+4.6%), AG (+2.7%), SIL (+2.5%), SLW (+2.4%, PSLV (+2.2%) all helping the miners sector. But it's hard to get excited when volume is so restrained.

Gold also has a bunch of healthy players, including NUGT (+2.9%), NGD (+2.3%) and GDXJ (+2%), but again, thin volume. XG and GG are up on massive volume. Crude oil is up. Copper is up. But on the whole, it all smells more like end-of-month buying by hedge funds to pretty up the books, not a legit turnaround. There isn't another clear catalyst in sight, which means we could see a slow meltdown for days to come. Perhaps weeks. Same scenario we had a week ago, but in slow-motion. It's thinnish markets like this that set up the average guy for a beatdown via flash crash. I'm content to be mostly cash and getting my sleep.

They can't milk gold and silver dry this time

12:54 pm (Hawaii) Charts and ETFs don't mesh often times, but with Spot Silver and Gold prices locked in a range, it's possible, just possible that we see certain patterns remain for the coming weeks.

• ZSL has run from 17 to 19+, back to 17, and up to 19.58, all in the past two weeks.

• DUST ran to 52, down to 44, then up to 48.92 since June 16.

• QID went from 54 to 57, back to 54, up to 56 since June 14.

• MCP pure kookoo in two weeks. 46 to 52 in two days, then down to 47 and up to 54 in another two-day span. then 52 to 56 between yesterday and today. It's one of those you can trade like a madman, or just pocket it and forget about it for a year. Rare earths are here to stay and the Chinese are going to make sure supply (they control 97% of the stuff) is limited.

• Other rare earth princes like REE have been roller-coaster nauseating. REE went from 9.00 to 11.40 in two days. Sank to 9.40, rode up to 11.10 and is at 10.67 after hours today. All in two weeks.










• Puppet masters knocked gold down as it was about to break to new highs, which means DZZ went from 6.35 to 6.89 since Wednesday. Same move for GLL, from 22.40 to 24.12 in the same time frame.

• FAZ is hovering between 46+ and 52. As more and more banksters (and insurance companies) announce huge writedowns and losses in the coming weeks due to Euro debts, fear of bank collapses and closings should drive FAZ much higher. Nothing would surprise me, though, including some devious plan that would keep the banksters solvent and maintain their current levels of stock price and Monopoly currency.

• JJC, the copper subindex ETN, has been stuck between 53 and 55. Currently 53.83. If stagnant, almost predictable action is your thing, let 'er rip. China's not coming to a complete standstill anytime soon.

• AGQ is a sight. From 165 to 186 in steady action for almost two weeks, then blindsided by the CME mafia the past two days. By CME mafia, I do mean all the powers that manipulate the "Free Market" of commodities, such as crude oil. I am NOT for blatant naked shorting, but I don't see the point of kneecapping any price discovery, especially when the LONG-TERM effect will be negligible at best.







Same goes for all the silver plays that were hammered the past two days, even though MINERS SHOULD BE GAINING DUE TO DECREASED ENERGY COSTS! It's mind boggling to see it all play out. I'm not advocating a full swan dive into miners (gold and silver) here, but AGQ is among many  metal plays now near YTD lows. At 160, AGQ is only a couple of bucks higher than its low a month ago.

It all comes back to what Mike Maloney has said for years and years: The Fed, that private entity that runs our finances, may not have any gold and silver in its vaults. Meanwhile, central banks across the globe have wizened up in recent years and started to accumulate mass quantities of metals to hedge against their valueless US fiat currency/IOUs. So how does the Fed respond? By holding gold and silver hostage.

It ain't pretty. They've got one, maybe two bullets left and they're up against Justice. You can't fuck over the world this long, borrow to the hilt, and not pay back WHILE STILL ASKING FOR MORE FUNDS TO BORROW. It would be best to restructure and concede rather than drag out the hostage crisis. By doing this to us, the Fed and banksters are simply prolonging the inevitable. I have no doubt that they are personally stocking up on all the gold and silver they can at these levels, and I would not be surprised if this is also a way to benefit all our debt masters, particularly China. This gives them ample opportunity to stock up at low prices.

Meanwhile, the value of the dollars we make by working every day (if we have jobs) is eroding by the day. A fucking candy bar at Safeway costs $1.29 now. This is like shopping for snacks at the movie theater. It's just getting worse. And it's been far worse in other countries for a much longer time.

I am not sweating the decline of spot price. I am just anxious to buy at the best discount I can get. That might come on Monday in two weeks or two months, but it's coming. I'm loading. I'm stacking. I'm not waiting for my bank to re-open after some strange "inventory" closing when one of our debt masters calls our bluff at the poker table. I think some of the experts are right. Jeff Christian is probably right when he says silver will drop to 26, then go up, up, up from there late in the year. Jim Sinclair is probably right when he says silver will rocket this year. Maybe not this summer, but eventually, yes.

By then, it won't be a question of how much we paid to protect our assets. It'll be a matter of how much protection we accumulated. I feel for the hard-working folks who were stretched to the limits, but there are also a lot of lazyass bitches who borrowed off their credit cards to the hilt. They bought stuff they couldn't afford for decades, and I'm not about to let them get me again. If they aren't ready this time, that's their effing problem.

Denise Milani

Not quite minus squared

9:37 am (Hawaii) Market is down (Dow -99.83/-0.8%, Nas -31.77/-1.2%, S&P -13.09/-1.0%), but it's not convincing of an onrushing disaster, either. Dollar is up 6/10th of a percentage point, crude oil down again (SCO up 1%). The Metals list is 27% green, 73% red with a majority on the plus side being bear plays. But the key is low volume up and down. Maybe it's a respite of sorts and Monday begins a bloodbath. Or maybe this market will remain choppy, indignant and petulant.

ZSL is up 5.3% to 19.46. DUST, QID, gold bears GLL and DZZ are among the leaders on the list. REE, MCP and AVL have kept rare earths near the top.

Meanwhile, the finnies faded. Three were in the green in the opening minutes today, but now all are in the red. NBG, which got up to 1.43 yesterday on the positive news of austerity psuedo-measures, is down 7% to 1.32. Pulling back is no surprise, but I thought there might be continued momentum after profit-taking. It's tough to make it when you're a bankster.

Silver plays are getting minced again, not a shock. AGQ down 5.4% to 161.54, EXK (-5.2%), SLW (-4.3%), PAAS (-3%), GPL (-4.5%), SVM (-5.1%) are among the bruised silver miners. XG (-2%), NUGT (-5.3%), GG (-3.7%), GDXJ (-3.1%), DGP (-3%) are among the gold plays getting stomped. DGP's descent is unusual; it's normally not a big mover up or down. It's my lone play, a small position, and Spot Gold has room to fall, maybe to 1450. Not fun, but the puppet masters will do what they deem necessary to justify implementation of the next bailout/quantitative easing/big lie.

My Regular watch list is 26% green, 74% red. AAPL is down 1.6% to 325.95. TVIX (+7.5%) and VXX (+3.7%) are up big, as is QID (+3.5%). No buyers, and it seems some hedge funds have emptied out. It's nice to rest easy on summer vacation.

It gets interesting on the Regular list. CMG (+1.1%), RLOC (+0.8%), CSTR (+0.3%) are up. Then it's red, red, red, red ...

Greecian formula?

10:17 am (Hawaii) Major momentum swings today. Jobs report bad. Greece austerity good. Looking over several charts from AAPL to NBG to AG, could it be remotely possible that this bullish vibe — increased volume, heavy momentum from lows to highs by the close — is the real deal? I would find that preposterous to conceive. This is late June, QE2 is almost done and the Fed is in no rush to usher in QE3. In fact, the Fed seems content to see the market tank, even crash, to justify any further fiat currency destruction, i.e. printing trillions more US Dollars.

Yet there are massive numbers in some of these equities/etfs. Are they spurred by high-frequency trading? Probably, but some of those are direct from the hedge funds, and moves on big volume don't lie in the near term. Usually.

I got out of FAZ despite my long-term pessimism about the debt crisis. I am not going to wait around and get cut to pieces by market momentum to the downside. But I am willing to re-enter FAZ once the financials' true colors show up vivid and bright again. Like maybe tomorrow morning. If Spain and Portugal opt for more austere routes, like Greece, that does NOT help US banksters one bit. So it can be possible for NBG to rocket higher on austerity measures while financials stateside swallow another plate of poison.

I looked hard at NBG before the close and had an order at 1.41, but never got it filled. Bad timing. Or good, depending on how the market follows through tomorrow. It could easily pull back into the 1.30s after today's robust gain. A tiny position would be interesting, but a fast move up isn't in the cards. I can see NBG at 2.00 in a few months, but the constant downturns of other banks will keep it leashed. A move to 2.50 or higher could happen within a year. A double is never a bad thing.





Apple held high ground even when the market was still down big. AAPL closed is at 330.20 after hours (+2.3%). Today's candlestick is not exactly bullish, but it is not bearish either.

Baidu has been bullish, as well, with good news earlier in the week. It wasn't long ago that BIDU split 3-for-1 and was sitting at 70. If there's a "safe" play in China, this would be one. Big Brother protects its little brothers.

LULU and other stocks look bullish, but in this bizarro market, LULU could easily lose its recent gains. That small float cuts both ways.

Silver was a roller coaster ride today. Silver Wheaton, like AAPL, showed strength when it was a sea of red. Net-net, SLW had slightly more volume and is up 1% to 33.13 after hours.

First Majestic (AG) also had a positive day (+0.8%) despite the pummeling on silver. Like Silver Wheaton, First Majestic's fundamental numbers are impressive, particularly in profit margin. I think that gets tampered with as energy prices fluctuate, but AG is still a solid miner.

I still like EXK (8.49 after hours), which was down nearly 1% but is still among the stronger plays this week among silver miners. 7.50 is support, and some shrewd traders got in at about 7.60 recently for this elevator ride.










AGQ, GPL, PAAS, SLV for your viewing.

 

 

ZSL was a solid play on the short side, but was well off its intraday high (19.11). ZSL is at 18.49 (+6.4%) after hours.

If the CME mafia continue to pull strings on silver, a little ZSL would make good protection.

DGP (double gold bull) looked horrible on the chart, big gap down on increased volume. If the puppet masters knock gold down, as I expect, to further their argument in favor of QE3, so be it. They will not and cannot hold gold down for long, though. Eventually, the debt crisis will overwhelm all factors, and the US will have to take severe action one way or another. Every way benefits real money: gold and silver. So I will hold my little position in DGP and continue to accumulate hard assets.

Rangold (GOLD) was a rarity today, a gold play that finished green (80.03, +0.5% after hours). I don't trade it, know little about it.

There were a few gold plays that showed some strength, like NGD.

GLD was GLD.

I still like Extorre Gold Mines (XG), even with its huge run in the past several months. They are great marketers and have been successful as of late with their finds in Argentina.










DZZ is one way to play a downturn in gold. GLL is another way (+3.7% today). On the whole, however, I don't plan to short gold. If I bet against anything, it would be the financials or silver, maybe the Nas (QID). I've never played QID, and unless there's a complete breakdown, I won't touch it. But the Nas does fall apart in a big way from time to time, so QID is worth keeping an eye on.

 

I'm mostly cash, same as the last several months. Small, but growing pile of physical metals.