Recess time? (updated 730 am HST)

2:52 am (Hawaii) Dow Jones futures were well into the 100+ range when I went grocery shopping a couple of hours ago. Now? 36 points. That's not much. I don't know or really care how that works, the whole business of futures in the "pre-premarket" where peons (like me) can't trade. But if I had been at home at 2:00 am when the peon premarket opened, I might have sold my little handful of FAZ at 59.12 just to get out. But I wasn't home. I was in the store, grabbing everything that I didn't plan to buy, but all necessities. (No candy bars.) I did get some potato chips. But the rest are all needed since I rarely shop and I needed everything from a wash rag to detergent.

But to the point — FAZ has ranged between 59.10 and 60 and with no catalyst in either direction so far, I'm better off waiting just a bit. I won't wait forever, though. One thing I've learned about quick trades is that it's usually better to get out at break-even or a small loss rather than let the tide push you all over the ocean, leaving you vulnerable and susceptible to a surprise tsunami.

Update 3:05 am My Regular watch list is 42% green, 37% red, 21% neutral. Oddly heavy on the neutrals. Could be a light volume day ahead. Govt stats/numbers were released about an hour ago, CNBC reported. Slightly lower than expected. Not a catalyst at all.

FAZ hovering at 59.67. AGQ down 4.3% to 115.94. DGP flat at 54.50. That's down 1 cent. Amazon about to reveal a new tablet within the hour. Not exciting.

My Metals list is 43% green, 45% red, 12% neutral. AGQ leads the losers. REE is up 4.2%. I don't trust anything about the rare earths sector. Too much yo-yo manipulation and politics.

For the first time in awhile, there's a possibility that PMs and FAZ might go up together. Not expecting it, but it could happen on a day like today.

Update 3:25 am FAZ still sitting below 60 and more than half my Debt Spiral (Banksters) list is green in premarket. However, about half of them are fractionally up: DB +0.6%, BAC +0.4%, MS +0.3%, NBG +0.3%, GS +0.1%. The list had just two in the red an hour ago. Now there are six, including FAZ, C, AIG, RBS, HBC and IRE.

I'm going to sit tight on my FAZ.

Update 3:51 am FAZ made a nice move to 60.75 and I could've sold at basically break even. But the market is more bullish than bearish and FAZ dipped to the mid-59 area and I sold for a tiny loss. There will be other days and opportunities. Dow went from +60 or so to +105 since the open. Can't fight the tape!

Update 4:21 am Back in at 60.80 with a small position. Guess I should've left my earlier position alone. Dow only +15 now, FAZ up to 61.17. Catalyst?

Update 4:40 am Added more FAZ in the 61.80ish range. Dow Jones now in the red. Looking for FAZ to reach higher to the top of the current megaphone pattern range, possibly push through (at around 63). But this could reverse so quickly. No real catalyst out there today.

Update 6:13 am Right place, wrong timing. FAZ moved up to 62.44 and I thought about selling. But I was stubborn and held. FAZ then dropped below 61. I got out at around 60.50 for another small loss. Hate the losing, but I usually keep it tight and small.

My initial entry point was 60.53. Without adding any shares, A sell over 62 would've been a small profit. Had I doubled down at 59+ earlier today, a nicer profit. But I bought at 61.80, saw FAZ drop below 61, then push above 62 and that should've been the end of this trade. Gotta let go in this weird, almost flat market, as soon as I can get a decent profit rather than hold out for some big run ... it's not coming today with no catalyst whatsoever. I knew that, but didn't apply it fully to the strategy today.

Price action should taper down to almost nothing during this lunch hour on the East Coast. FAZ has ranged from 58.88 (premarket) to 60.75, down to 59.10, up to 62.44, down to 60, up to 61.30. Now at 60.95. Had I slept in, I'd be up. I bought FAZ yesterday at 60.53. I wonder if being up all night and staying up on a 12 oz of Red Bull is detrimental. I don't think so. I just executed poorly! Need to place actual stop sell points or have them mentally, automatically with me pulling the trigger on that exact price.

I don't mind selling at small losses. If my profit-loss ratio is 2:1 or 3:1 and I continue to stick with active, liquid issues that have a built-in edge (FAZ, DGP, AGQ) thanks to this dead-end fiat global bankster economy, the pile will grow. I don't need to win every trade or even half. Disciplined management on the exit side of the trade is KEY. That's one of the few things I did right with this trade.

Update 7:01 am In FAZ at 61.35, out at 60.65. Another small loss, three in a row. FAZ is up 0.86% for the day, yet I'm down 1.3% or so because I'm trying too hard. Time to pull back. There's hardly any momentum today, especially in the banksters. Of the 16 on my list, 12 are either up or down 1% or less. I have no less confidence that FAZ has a high probability of going higher over the long term. But my intraday trading needs some serious tuning.

Update 7:34 am Back in at 62.35. Really could've been so much easier. Micromanaging FAZ is not the way to go, not for me. I'm going to stick with a more medium-term view because it will move 1.50, 2.00, 2.50 in an hour or less, and the market seems to indicate that FAZ needs to go higher (+2.8% today) even with no catalyst event or news today.

Just another uneventful, ordinary day

8:01 am (Hawaii) Spent the past hour or so occupied with work, but now I'm back to see the Dow down "only" 290 points. Quite a comeback. It could be back to -400 in 5 minutes, I know, I know, I know. But FAZ is down below 67 and SocGen is down just 12.8% after being shredded to -22% earlier in the day. Everything has its limits and when the limits are stretched too far, just like Le Fly says, there's a rubber-band, snapback result. Eventually.

Gold continues to stay near its highs. DGP is at 64.50. But silver is roaring today. Probably a massive short-covering, but it was due. AGQ at 204.75 after hitting an intraday high of 207.03. Do the puppeteers dare naked it short silver back to 160? Possibly. I'm not touching ZSL or AGQ right now unless a new catalyst hits the market. AGQ is up 10.5% here, topping my Metals list.

AG (+10.6%), FSG, GSS, NUGT, PSLV, EXK, SVM, GPL, NGD, REE ... all at least 7% up for the day with less than 2 hours left. I wonder how well the silver and gold miners will hold up if the market continues to slide downhill. Is this a brief respite from the hellhole that miners had been buried in for weeks and months? Or is this move going to be long term since gold is becoming more popular with human beings who hate seeing their hard-earned fiat dollars turn to shit because of inflation and a fucked-up monetary system?

I tend to think it's the latter.

Might be a nice play in AAPL going into the bell. Now at 372, just off its high of the day. I got out at this level early in the session. I just don't see, hear, smell a catalyst that can sustain a run higher. Hmm...

Game on: Rare earths playing tough

3:51 am (Hawaii) ZSL gaining in the past several minutes as gold and silver paper sell off. Note that the indices are now in green territory. XG tanking as it often does, but I'm not selling and I'm not adding more. This small position is more than enough exposure to the wacky miners. DGP's modest gain has dissipated. GSVC was green, but is now red. Not selling, but I'll look to add when it nears 15.55 (50% retrace from pre-second surge that went to almost 20).

SHZ has lifted to 3.34 on the rare-earths run today and yesterday. Strictly a day trade and will fall on its face once AVL, REE and MCP get hit with profit-taking. I saw SHZ at 3.26, saw it come back to 3.23 and wanted it at 3.19 (50% retrace of today's early gain). But it didn't get there and ran higher. Still watching, but this would be a tiny position anyway. Not chasing. I think.

Coffee, cream and METAL MANIA! (updated)

8:24 am (Hawaii) It rained overnight in Honolulu. Weather was cool for a July night. Perfect sleeping weather. I just got up after a productive workout last night, and it's almost the end of the session. Did I miss anything?

Hell yes. I remember Turd Ferguson noting yesterday that, technically, he expects gold to break out to a new high, and if that happened ... fully bullish. Turn on the TV. Turn on the computer. I sorta dread this. If gold breaks out, good. My XG and DGP will do nicely, even at small quantities. But I sold out of AGQ two days ago at a loss of $12/share. Small, small position, but still.

The Metals list I keep is almost all green (79%). It's a wipeout day for Metals bears. Only the bearish ETFs and ETNs are red. The indices are all up. XG is up 5%, DGP up 1.3%. AGQ is up 10% to 195. I sold at 172. Again, my timing ... not so good. I'm glad I held some gold stocks. It's like selling FAZ last Friday instead of holding until Monday. That cost me some. But the AGQ sell just cost me roughly $600. That's on a small position, really small. And if silver continues to rise, AGQ keeps going up at double warp speed, who knows, maybe to its all-time high at 382 (April 28).

I can imagine it's been a wonderful day so far for metal bugs. But Turd's site is down. Has it been overwhelmed by all the excitement? I need my Turd & Turdites fix.

James Turk, in his consistent, almost monotone voice, has been pounding the table for gold for a few months. He keeps repeating that this will be (not could be) a breakout summer for gold. Yesterday, he said it would be like the summer of 1982, when Mexico's default led to a golden rocketship. Holy cow, Mr. Turk is probably correct.

Everything at the top of my Metals list gapped up and is already enjoying bigger volume than yesterday: AGQ, AG, NUGT, EGO, SVM, SIL, DBS, XG, SLV, PSLV, GOLD, GDXJ, SLW, PLTM, EXK, REE, GDX, COPX ... wait, I take that back. PLTM hasn't matched yesterday's volume yet. It's all almost too good to be true. Like a setup. But on this kind of volume? I doubt it. It's usually a thin market that gets toyed with and peon traders like me get puppeteered.

Is it this simple? Obama threatens to yank Social Security, and the market reads it as a desperate threat and confirmation that QE3 is on? Or what's-his-face on Capitol Hill, the Republican who caved in and compromised on the Democrats' offer yesterday ... that's what's driving this? I haven't had time to check yet. Maybe after a bowl of cereal.

Update 8:51 am (Hawaii) On the 15-minute chart, AGQ has never exploded like it did this morning at the open. There was major volume two days ago, when shares sold off. But this morning was to the upside in a gap up. Trying find an entry point is difficult here. After closing yesterday at 177.68, there's a lot of room to pull back.

Has the CME mafia and the govt lost control of the price? Is the manipulation over? Probably not on both counts. But yesterday and today show that even in the middle of what's supposed to be the summer doldrums, the market may be too powerful to shackle 100% of the time — especially when it comes to gold. That is where old money resides. Old BIG money.

Update 9:07 am (Hawaii) Excellent post at SilverGoldSilver.com by guest writer SRSrocco about commercial shorts losing grip on silver. I'll add it to the library reading list later today. I got to eat some cereal. Kept watching AGQ but couldn't find a suitable point of entry. Now it's pulling back below 196, it looks like ... feeling desperate to get in near the highs is never a good feeling, and rarely leads to good results. I like the feeling of buying cheap, it's just that I really don't expect AGQ to go back near 177 any time soon.

Only a rocket ship loaded with 10 trillion ounces of gold and silver from another galaxy could save the US economy here. And that would be bullish for PMs. Production/GDP/jobs aren't about to spike high in the next several months. Not even space aliens can repair that.

Weekend cinema & library

Video

MaxKeiserTV: Why don't Greece, Spain float their income-producing assets? (July 8)

Minyanville: Are you smarter than a Wall Streeter (July 8)

James Dines: Now predicts silver to reach $300-$500 an ounce (July 8)

Alex Jones: Bob Chapman interview (July 8)

Alex Jones: Top Mexican drug dealer says US Gov gave them guns (July 8)

Vlogs

VictoryIndependence: Operation QE3 is a go! Unemployment report a disaster (July 8)

visionvictory: Gold goes vertical, unemployment, random check points (July 8)

SGTbull07: Jeff Nielsen on new Pan Asian Gold Exchange: Game changer? (July 8)

silverfuturist: $300 silver but when? (July 8)

morganslv: Silver holding @ 36+ (July 8)

george4title: Woman faces 90 days in jail for planting garden (July 8)

ScrapGoldBusiness: Retiring on welfare? (July 8)

zen5678: Castastrophe: When the dollar crashes (July 8)

PastorDowell: Silver update, keep stackin friends (June 28)

PastorDowell: Silver update advice for you (Apr 19)

PastorDowell: Never give up your guns! (Feb 22)

theeastwatch: Time to sell silver (Apr 19)

Reports & Blogs

Simon Black: Congress wants automatic wage deductions to pay down the debt (July 8)

Commodity Online: India to import 350 tons of gold, 1,200 tons of silver (July 7)

CNBC: Common politics muddy waters in rare earth discovery (July 6)

Jim Powell: Meeting the critical metals demand (June 28)

Titilating Thursday

10:20 am (Hawaii) Quite a stimulating session for bulls. I was asleep, away in Dreamland. Must've been good. I don't remember a thing, but my countenance is even. Meanwhile, the indices finished positive. The Nas up for an eighth day in a row.

I stayed out after watching the open. I missed this run up and I didn't want to catch the inevitable fall down. As expected, hotties XG and EXK made pit stops today after major moves higher. XG down 0.8% to 14.37 (afterhours) and EXK down 0.5% to 9.66.

More numbers came out today, more positive for the market, but really, it's all momentum based on the assumption that the debt ceiling will be raised and that the Eurozone has a better grip on its debt crisis for now. It's like this: FAS and FAZ are at extremes from one day to the next, regardless of how the indices are doing. Logically, FAZ should be crushing, but there's JPM (+1.9%), Citi (+1.7%), BAC (+1.7%), STD (+1.2%), GS (+0.9%) and so on. All these banksters eventually will run out of government handouts. Just a matter of when the plug gets pulled and they start gagging on their own poison. I don't think the big boys will die. They'll just languish until the market corrects itself without the life support provided by the doomed fractional reserve system.

My Metals list is 71% green, but the depth of huge gainers has been reduced. "Only" 18 issues gained at least 1.5%. FAS and UCO are in this list as convenient indicators for the broader view, but both were up more than 4% today. REE (+3.8%), PALL (+2.8%), MCP (+2.5%), CU (+2.4) were very strong for the rare earths and non-gold, non-silver traders. Copper's recent run hasBrother Turd pointing to a possible repeat of its run of last year.

You've probably been wondering about that, too. With Greece and the global debt crises, so much is similar to last year's market behavior: Lackluster in the spring, total launching pad in July and rocket ship action to the end of the year. Is that going to happen again in 2011? If they kick the proverbial can down the road again, it's clear the big money would like this to be so. Self-fulfilling prophecy and all that.

But I would add this: volume is sinking as this hot streak of the past week-plus continues. Here's a look at today's big winners on my Metals list.

FAS - volume up today compared to yesterday

UCO - volume way up, nearly double

REE - volume lower

PALL - volume lower

MCP - volume lower

CU - volume higher

AGQ - volume lower

PSLV - volume similar

AVL - volume lower

JJC - volume lower

COPX - volume HUGE

GG - volume higher

XME - volume lower

PLTM - volume higher

PGM - volume lower

AG - volume lower

DBB - volume similar

GOLD - volume higher

AGOL - volume higher

PPLT - volume HUGE

SLV - volume lower

WITE - volume lower

DBS - volume lower

Those are the metals on my list that were up more than 1%. For the most part, volume was lower today going into tomorrow's key report. It's been a quiet week, news wise, in Europe, and last week's end-of-month window dressing has carried over.

My Regular watch list is 78% green with PSUN, yes that PSUN (occasionally loved by Le Fly) up 10.2% today. There's better depth here than in my Metals list.

PSUN - volume HUGE

WNR - volume up big

VCLK - volume up

VLO - volume up HUGE

FCX - volume up HUGE

LVS - volume up HUGE

MNW - volume up

SWY - volume lower

RLOC - volume lower

CLNE - volume lower

GOOG - volume higher

ENY - volume similar

USO - volume higher

AMRN - volume higher

APC - volume similar

OWW - volume lower

FORM - volume higher

MSFT - volume higher.

All of these are stocks that gained at least 2% with the exception of MSFT (+1.8%). AAPL (+1.6%) moved up to 357 on lower volume. AMZN up 1.5% on higher volume. BIDU up 0.8% on similar volume. NFLX up 0.8% on lower volume.

It's good to be aware of the surroundings. Not everyone had the foresight to park money in NFLX, PCLN and AAPL below 50 and forget about it for a few years.

Rare earth Thursday

5:23 am (Hawaii) This week's bull run continues. DJ up 142 points (+1.1%) to 12,404. Nas up 30 points (+1.1%) to 2,771. S&P up 12.25 points (+0.9%) to 1,319. Metals list is 47% green, 48% red, 5% neutral. Rare earths are tearing higher. MCP (+6.6) is up $3.76 to 60.78. It was at 52 last week, dipping on news of major insider sales. REE is up 6.1% to 11.14. AVL is higher by 5.8% to 6.89.

The rest of the metals are up fractionally, none more than 1.5% with a few exceptions like CU, COPX, SVM, XME.

XG (+1.3%) and GDXJ (+1.2%) have decent gains so far. It smells like the run is petering out.

My Regular watch list is 68% green, 32% red. Ford (+3.5%), TSO (+3.2%) and RLOC (+2.7%) are among the leaders. Is this the end of the end-of-month window dressing? Tomorrow is July 1, so we'll find out soon enough. Today's supposed to mark the end of QE2, but all signs point to almost no fear of a prolonged hiatus until QE3. It appears improbable, even impossible, for the Fed to rule out the option of printing more dollars. There is no tangible alternative on the table, nor the political will to truly explore a cure for the ailing system.

Is the American public willing to take the medicine necessary? Are the powers that be willing to go down so we can transition to a new system? Of course not, not when it means losing billions of dollars. But the lie can't last forever.

Update 5:43 am (Hawaii) Financials are up across the board. SCGLY (+3.1%), NBG (+2.9%), BBVA (+2.7%), STD (+2.4%), DB (+1.6%) showing strength across the Eurozone. JPM, C, GS up fractionally. BAC down 1.2% on bad news yesterday. IRE down 1.8%. Finnies basically leading the run this week.

Raquel Welch

They can't milk gold and silver dry this time

12:54 pm (Hawaii) Charts and ETFs don't mesh often times, but with Spot Silver and Gold prices locked in a range, it's possible, just possible that we see certain patterns remain for the coming weeks.

• ZSL has run from 17 to 19+, back to 17, and up to 19.58, all in the past two weeks.

• DUST ran to 52, down to 44, then up to 48.92 since June 16.

• QID went from 54 to 57, back to 54, up to 56 since June 14.

• MCP pure kookoo in two weeks. 46 to 52 in two days, then down to 47 and up to 54 in another two-day span. then 52 to 56 between yesterday and today. It's one of those you can trade like a madman, or just pocket it and forget about it for a year. Rare earths are here to stay and the Chinese are going to make sure supply (they control 97% of the stuff) is limited.

• Other rare earth princes like REE have been roller-coaster nauseating. REE went from 9.00 to 11.40 in two days. Sank to 9.40, rode up to 11.10 and is at 10.67 after hours today. All in two weeks.










• Puppet masters knocked gold down as it was about to break to new highs, which means DZZ went from 6.35 to 6.89 since Wednesday. Same move for GLL, from 22.40 to 24.12 in the same time frame.

• FAZ is hovering between 46+ and 52. As more and more banksters (and insurance companies) announce huge writedowns and losses in the coming weeks due to Euro debts, fear of bank collapses and closings should drive FAZ much higher. Nothing would surprise me, though, including some devious plan that would keep the banksters solvent and maintain their current levels of stock price and Monopoly currency.

• JJC, the copper subindex ETN, has been stuck between 53 and 55. Currently 53.83. If stagnant, almost predictable action is your thing, let 'er rip. China's not coming to a complete standstill anytime soon.

• AGQ is a sight. From 165 to 186 in steady action for almost two weeks, then blindsided by the CME mafia the past two days. By CME mafia, I do mean all the powers that manipulate the "Free Market" of commodities, such as crude oil. I am NOT for blatant naked shorting, but I don't see the point of kneecapping any price discovery, especially when the LONG-TERM effect will be negligible at best.







Same goes for all the silver plays that were hammered the past two days, even though MINERS SHOULD BE GAINING DUE TO DECREASED ENERGY COSTS! It's mind boggling to see it all play out. I'm not advocating a full swan dive into miners (gold and silver) here, but AGQ is among many  metal plays now near YTD lows. At 160, AGQ is only a couple of bucks higher than its low a month ago.

It all comes back to what Mike Maloney has said for years and years: The Fed, that private entity that runs our finances, may not have any gold and silver in its vaults. Meanwhile, central banks across the globe have wizened up in recent years and started to accumulate mass quantities of metals to hedge against their valueless US fiat currency/IOUs. So how does the Fed respond? By holding gold and silver hostage.

It ain't pretty. They've got one, maybe two bullets left and they're up against Justice. You can't fuck over the world this long, borrow to the hilt, and not pay back WHILE STILL ASKING FOR MORE FUNDS TO BORROW. It would be best to restructure and concede rather than drag out the hostage crisis. By doing this to us, the Fed and banksters are simply prolonging the inevitable. I have no doubt that they are personally stocking up on all the gold and silver they can at these levels, and I would not be surprised if this is also a way to benefit all our debt masters, particularly China. This gives them ample opportunity to stock up at low prices.

Meanwhile, the value of the dollars we make by working every day (if we have jobs) is eroding by the day. A fucking candy bar at Safeway costs $1.29 now. This is like shopping for snacks at the movie theater. It's just getting worse. And it's been far worse in other countries for a much longer time.

I am not sweating the decline of spot price. I am just anxious to buy at the best discount I can get. That might come on Monday in two weeks or two months, but it's coming. I'm loading. I'm stacking. I'm not waiting for my bank to re-open after some strange "inventory" closing when one of our debt masters calls our bluff at the poker table. I think some of the experts are right. Jeff Christian is probably right when he says silver will drop to 26, then go up, up, up from there late in the year. Jim Sinclair is probably right when he says silver will rocket this year. Maybe not this summer, but eventually, yes.

By then, it won't be a question of how much we paid to protect our assets. It'll be a matter of how much protection we accumulated. I feel for the hard-working folks who were stretched to the limits, but there are also a lot of lazyass bitches who borrowed off their credit cards to the hilt. They bought stuff they couldn't afford for decades, and I'm not about to let them get me again. If they aren't ready this time, that's their effing problem.

Denise Milani

Silver, gold squished, but rare earths are hot

3:41 am (Hawaii) A rare morning of no sleep, just stayed up through the night. Being a night owl, that's not hard. But I will crash out soon enough and leave the market to the rest of you crazy people, trying to trade this madness ...

Well, the bad news is silver plays are getting scorched. ZSL is up 2.3% to 18.92. But a sidelight is the way rare earth plays are also near the top of my Metals list. MCP is +2.3% to 55.18, off its early high of 55.50. REE is also pushing toward the top, up 1.6% to 10.67. AVL is hot, too (+2.4%).

Gold is also getting sandblasted. Crude oil is down again, which is positive for SCO (+1.8%). Metals list is 41% green, 49% red.

AAPL is fractionally higher. All in all, a blaaah kind of open. No catalyst in sight for bulls. The bear view is middling at best, though things could get interesting going into the close for something like FAZ. Or if Spot Silver is ready to drop through 34, ZSL would be a possible ride.

Rare, indeed

11:22 am (Hawaii) Rare earth plays looked strong today. Good moves to the upside on increased volume. Nothing in this market is moving with mass volume and momentum, but these guys are not just well off their highs, but are going to continue in the long term to be solid even in a down economy due to their status in electronics, technology. Defense weapons. Batteries. Plus, China supposedly is home to 95% 97% of the planet's rare earths. The biggest advantage may be this: rare earths are NOT manipulated by the banksters. As of now, there is no exchange-traded puppetry of rare earths. I doubt the Chinese would go for that — backing an American bankster mafia exchange with their rare earths.

How long until Hang Seng or Shanghai open their own RARE EARTH COMMODITY EXCHANGE? I say there's one by January 1, 2012.

A look at MCP: 3-month chart and 1-year. Huge gain since IPO.

A look at smaller rare earth plays AVL and REE:

Wikipedia: Rare earth element

Barron's: Molycorp jumps as analysts heap on praise (June 20 2011)

Barron's: Molycorp's CEO's $8.9 million sale (June 20 2011)

Reuters: Molycorp sees Sumitomo deal closing by September (June 20 2011)

Seeking Alpha/Dr. Duru: Chinese academic's rare earth forecasts at odds with experts (June 20 2011)

(video) CNTV: Restructuring China's rare earth industry (June 20 2011)

China Daily: Rare earth supplies expected to grow (June 16 2011)

(video) BBC: Rare earths mining: China's 21st century gold rush (June 16 2011)

Jeb Handwerger: Why China's rare earth exports really matter (June 7 2011)

Seeking Alpha/Engineer Broker: Molycorp target is $472, 2H 2013 (May 31 2011)

Wall Street Journal: China rare earth exports rise (May 21 2011)

BBC: China expands export quotas of rare earth metals (May 19 2011)

Wall Street Journal: A warning on rare earth elements by GS (May 6 2011)

Jack Lifton: In Xanadu, did GS decree a rare earths surplus? (May 6 2011)

Alacra Pulse: JP Morgan's Michael Gambardella raises MCP target to $74 (Mar 29 2011)

Reuters: China rare earth prices explode as export volumes collapse (Mar 22 2011)

The Telegraph: Rare earths: Why China is cutting exports crucial to Western technologies (Mar 19 2011)

Reuters: China to tighten limits on rare earth exports (Dec 29 2010)

Seeking Alpha: Rare earth metals not so rare but valuable (Nov 4 2008)

Inner Mongolia

Euro up? Dollar up? Metals up?

9:29 am (Hawaii) Fell fast asleep the past several hours on this cool, wet Honolulu morning. Sleep in cool weather is always appreciated. So is a market that is not outright destroyed by the puppet masters. The indices are fractionally higher. My Metals list is 57% green, 41% red.

Gold (1541, +0.1%), Silver (35.99, +0.6%) are holding up after yesterday's Forex.com news. Platinum (-1.1%) and Copper (-0.6%). Palladium -0.3%).

SLW has held its gains (3%), along with today's leader, MCP (+7.3%), though MCP has lost a bit of its huge gain. GPL, REE, SVM, AVL all up big today. GG, PASS, NUGT, NGD and EXK up more than 1.3%.

As was the case last Thursday, today's gainers are up on scant volume. They are having a snack, a little bag of chips or half an apple or a cup of yogurt. This won't sustain them for the week.

As Greece and the Euro zone figure out their problems, financials are bracing for the worst. The finnies on my Debt Spiral list are all in the red again, though mostly less than -1%. My favorite play in this spiral is FAZ, which is near flat for the day. Again, volume is light and probably will be until Bernanke speaks on Wednesday.

My other favorites, little miners EXK (+1.5% to 7.82) and XG (+1.1% to 11.40) have low volume. Double-long gold ETN DGP is barely green (49.18).

In other words, this was a good day to sleep in.

AAPL has bounced off its low (310.50) and is at 314.91, down nearly 2%. Still an unhealthy indicator for the market and techs. Crude oil (93.25, +0.2%) flat. US Dollar up 3¢ to 75.52.

Update 10:19 am (Hawaii) Forgot to note that GLD and SLV traded anemically today after yesterday's Forex.com news. GLD traded 19.2 million shares on Friday, just 10.4 mil today. SLV had 23.6 mil on Friday, 21.0 mil today. Did fear creep in? Maybe. I still think things are flat as a banana pancake until Bernanke on Wednesday.

Flip-flopping along

4:24 am (Hawaii) Miners look good so far despite a slight dip in the past 20 minutes. XG is up 1% to 11.38. EXK up 0.9% to 7.77. AGQ is down 0.6% to 175.61. DGP up by a hair to 49.16.

FAZ is up 1.1% to 49.75 as the financials are simmering in red so far.

AAPL just ugly, down 2.4% to 312.54. The plunge below 325 was expected; no support until 300. Still shocking to see, and few other stocks lead the market up or down like AAPL does. The indices don't look bad (Dow -0.2%, Nas -0.05%, S&P -0.03%), but my Metals list and Regular watch list have been mostly red in the past week.

Metals list is 40% green, 55% red. Regular list is 44% green, 55% red. Looks like fluctuation and a lot of flip-flopping by fish on the shoreline. Running in place.

The leaders: MCP (+8.3%), GPL (+7.2%), REE (+5.6%), AMRN (+4.3%), AVL (+4.1%), SVM (+2.4%), GSF (+2.4%), SLW (+2.8%), BIDU (+2.3%), RLOC (+2.3%), LULU (+2.0%).

Along with AAPL, LNKD is another loser so far (-4.1%).

Update 4:47 am (Hawaii) MCP is not a shock at +9.3% this morning. Can't remember who said this over the weekend, but with China having 95% of the world's rare earths market, and unlike gold, silver, platinum and palladium, there is no exchange trading of rare earths (at least not yet). There's no Comex or CME mafia to shackle rare earths, which have risen in value 3x to 4x in the past few months.

MCP is already at 4.1 million shares traded in the first 75 minutes. It had 5.4 mil shares all of Friday. If today's gap up holds, could be bullish. Coming off a major gap down two weeks ago and far from its high (78+, May 4), this is starting to look attractive.

Tuesday lunch munch

How's the ice down there?

7:15 am (Hawaii) Just woke up to a sunny, cool morning in the islands. Could not get that darn wireless connection going for an hour, so I'm out of bed and sitting at the desk. Just as well. There's a new Max Keiser report out, some good stuff with David Morgan about Utah's new precious metals coinage enacted into law.

China's inflation number (5.5%) met expectations, but is that really enough to slow bearish momentum?

My Metals list is 71% green, 28% red. The glaring common denominator, though, is that volume is anemic. Though we're just past halfway for the day, volume is scant, just like it was a few days ago when the market slide halted for a day. Top gainers so far: REE (+6.7% to 6.81), AVL (+6.6% to 6.28), EXK (+6.2% to 8.13), AG (+5.9% to 17.44), GPL (+4.9% to 3.00). That's two up days for GPL. SVM, AGQ, NGD, MCP and NUGT are also more than 3% up. A lot of big percentage gainers, but with so few shares traded, this could easily get shredded by the alien machines before the closing bell. My hunch is the gains will be pared somewhat, but still finish up nicely for the day. But with the poor volume, the downtrend will resume tomorrow.

TWN (-4.5%), ZSL (-4.3%), SCO (-3.8%), DUST (-3.8%) and FAZ (-3.4%) are the worst losers thus far.

Dow Jones +1.2%, NAS +1.5%, S&P +1.4%.

My Regular watch list is 86% green, 14% red, but again, volume is miniscule. There aren't many sellers, but there are even fewer buyers. It's the machines keeping the market above thin ice. AAPL is up 1.5% to 331.44, but volume is just 6.9 mil shares compared to yesterday's 11.7 mil.

(video) Max Keiser: Economic melt-through, David Morgan (June 14 2011)
Zero Hedge: Standard Chartered: '3 factors will drive gold to $5,000' (June 14 2011)
Standard Chartered: In gold we trust (full report) (June 14 2011)