XMSR revisited

I wrote a few months back about my friend Kyle, who has an unhealthy obsession with XM Satellite Radio. He got in fairly cheap -- at around $10, I think.


Looks like XMSR is just spinning its wheels, even with good news. I don't agree with Kyle about the potential of satellite radio, but if he makes a decent profit, who cares?

Cramer fired up over satellite radio

I figure my pal Kyle and everyone else who is long XM Satellite Radio would get a kick out of Jim Cramer's rant about the XM-Sirius merger delay.

Longshots: XM Satellite Radio

My pal Kyle loves XM Satellite Radio so much — particularly the MLB coverage — that he went long the stock a few weeks back. XMSR fell 3% today to 12.72, still a healthy gain in that time. Volume was miniscule on today's pullback. Was it a healthy breather before another run up? Or is XMSR tapped out and ready to sell off again? I'm not an XM fan, but if I were, I'd wait 'til it drops back to its 200-day SMA (12.61 and no higher) before considering.

Longshots: XM Satellite Radio

XMSR 12.40 +0.49 (+4.1%)
XM Satellite Radio hit a rough patch along with most of the market in recent weeks and touched 10 a few times. That was a prime buying opportunity for believers — which I'm not. At 12.40, XMSR is nearing its moving averages and quite a risk considering the uncertainty of its pending merger with Sirius. I'm not a subscriber, nor do I think people are really gung-ho about paying for radio in a massive way. Niche market all the way.

Clobberin' Time!

This cold has knocked me out for several days, so I've been getting up late enough to miss virtually entire market sessions. Getting up at 11:15 a.m. (HST) today gave the chance to turn on the laptop and be shocked by the 98-point drop in the Nasdaq. Here's a stock ticker I would empathize with: "OUCH."

When I look at my "real" shares of Apple and Research in Motion, I can't help but think that a sell at the start of the year would've been wise. We all know there are investors who waited until Jan. 1 to unload shares and hold off paying the tax until 2009. But today's jobs report put a sour taste into the market, and across the board, stocks were clobbered. Only a few survived in the green, such as XM Satellite Radio.

All the traditional mettle about holding shares long pertained to the market of two or three years ago. Since then, trading in and out has been the superior methodology. Apple at 180? Why would the globe's top growth company plunge more than 10 bucks in the face of a seemingly soft recession? I see consumers choosing a Hybrid car over a gas guzzler. I see consumers spending less on expensive clothes and opting for Ross Dress for Less more. But I do not see them passing up a new iPod Touch or Macbook. People will still treat themselves when it comes to technology, especially cool tech. This is not a Depression we're seeing ahead.

My shares of RIMM are hurting, particularly my swing-trade shares. Could've sold at 122, as Pete Najarian did with his RIMM options. Who knew that RIMM would nosedive back to 103 — lower than it was pre-earnings — even on a robust earnings report and raised guidance? Ridiculous. But that's the market for you.

It's clobberin' time and only the brave will wade into the water. Reminds me of one of ABC's shows of 2006, Invasion. Anyone who got into the water was eventually attacked by a mutated, alien manta ray-like creature, and then you became a human-alien hybrid. Then the hybrid men impregnated human females (sneaky invading bastards). Doomed, doomed, doomed. Well, before we got to know exactly where civilization was headed, the show was cancelled and I was left hanging. I tend to think our economy — and the market — are in slightly better health.

About XMSR, chapter 2

I mentioned yesterday that a friend (I'll call him Cal) was intent on putting some of his hard-earned cash on XM Satellite Radio. Though the stock was technically in a good spot, trading below its moving averages, I cautioned him. Well, turns out he bought a few shares on Monday and as of Wednesday was up a buck. Happy about it, too.

I'll keep posting about XMSR, not because I think it's a good investment — with $1.5 billion in debt, how can it be? — but because it's always interesting to see how other people trade. Of course, the end result is also interesting. I hope Cal gets out with a profit every time. His target is 20. We shall see.

About XMSR

A friend is wading into the waters. He's young enough that he can withstand pullbacks in the market, and he's entering with "play money" outside his retirement fund. I envy him and worry for him at the same time. Why?

He's interested in XM Satellite Radio. Hmm, I say. I have never wanted to buy this stock. All I know is that the future of this company is heavily dependent on the higher court's looming decision about the merger proposal with Sirius. Either way, how will XMSR survive with $1.5 billion in debt?

I asked my pal this question, and he seemed ambivalent about fundamentals. He's a big baseball fan, and XM's ties to Major League Baseball is all he focuses on. We went over some details, like the subscriber numbers, rate of growth, etc. I don't know if he was really listening. But with so many quality growth stocks, I would not venture into XMSR. If I were to step into a stock with large potential, it might be Hoku Scientific. Crocs has been beaten down to a pulp. lululemon athletica is only in the baby steps of its growth. All are risky as hell, but I'd be more comfortable there than in XMSR.

Of course, if XM and Sirius merge, there's the issue about hardware, and how to make it all compatible. But that's down the road. Anyone buying XMSR now, in the 12s, is rolling the dice. If I were bullish on XMSR, I'd wait until it dips under 11 again. Of course, there are bulls out there. Rick Aristotle Munarriz is among them.

Munarriz: XM and Sirius will beat the market in 2008, deal or no deal

Munarriz touts Crocs again

My favorite Motley Fool writer has struck again. Rick Aristotle Munarriz highlighted four growth stocks of his liking, including Crocs. Why is that notable? Contrary to the herd at Motley Fool, Munarriz has been high on CROX for a long time. At MF, CROX was voted "Worst Stock of 2007" when the new year began. The cumulative rating of the stock was one star out of five.

The big Aristotle also likes 4Kids (KDE), XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) and TiVo (TIVO).

Munarriz: 4 Catalyst Stocks for the Fourth Quarter

I wonder how much longer the MF herd will keep dissing CROX. The stock hit a new (mid-day) high of 64.95 today.