No real competition, not yet, for ISRG.
Showing posts with label ISRG. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ISRG. Show all posts
Sunday, April 27, 2008
#2 Intuitive Surgical
Volatile, yes. But still in a league of their own.
No real competition, not yet, for ISRG.
No real competition, not yet, for ISRG.
Monday, March 3, 2008
Nauseous? Watch the road
The nausea caused by the market tide doesn't mean there aren't some prices worth eyeing. Twenty of the 25 stocks I like are worth a look on the recent downturn.
ISRG starting to look attractive. Just a bit.
MasterCard is falling, too, even though the company is making major profits. I like it here below the 100-day SMA.
First Solar isn't cheap, but it's pretty good here. At worst, it's the leader in solar.
Really, McDonald's shouldn't be this cheap, not with its overseas exposure and growth. The honey mustard snack wrap is my fave. Still addicted to their fries.
Crude oil hit $104 a barrel today, but PetroChina shares are still sluggish.
Disney is a stock worth holding for a long time.
Up and down, down and up. Is Steve Jobs and his creative crew out of fresh ideas? I tend to think not. That's more of a key than whether they sell 10 million iPhones or not.
Really, is Google this bad?
RIMM's a bit pricey here.
I'd buy on these crazy dips if I could. Goldman Sachs at 165, didn't expect it, but it was always a possibility.
Focus Media hasn't proven its potential just yet and it's a bit expensive here.
CNOOC Ltd. is doing fairly well, while its cousin PetroChina is a slug. Go figure. Could be CNOOC's natural gas segment is getting a boost from rising demand.
Crashing hard. Where it bottoms out, who knows?
On discount lately. The CEO says they'll bounce back, just like last year.
Baidu and other China leaders can't get any traction here. Just a matter of time, perhaps, until the Beijing Olympics has an effect.
Nike trading in a range. Spooky here.
Just watching Mr. Softee for now.
China Life Insurance finally leveling out. What do the technical junkies call it? An ascending triangle ... which means it may break out. Or not.
Suntech Power is appealing right here.
There are probably dozens of better stocks than Chipotle right now. But I'm still watching.
ISRG starting to look attractive. Just a bit.
MasterCard is falling, too, even though the company is making major profits. I like it here below the 100-day SMA.
First Solar isn't cheap, but it's pretty good here. At worst, it's the leader in solar.
Really, McDonald's shouldn't be this cheap, not with its overseas exposure and growth. The honey mustard snack wrap is my fave. Still addicted to their fries.
Crude oil hit $104 a barrel today, but PetroChina shares are still sluggish.
Disney is a stock worth holding for a long time.
Up and down, down and up. Is Steve Jobs and his creative crew out of fresh ideas? I tend to think not. That's more of a key than whether they sell 10 million iPhones or not.
Really, is Google this bad?
RIMM's a bit pricey here.
I'd buy on these crazy dips if I could. Goldman Sachs at 165, didn't expect it, but it was always a possibility.
Focus Media hasn't proven its potential just yet and it's a bit expensive here.
CNOOC Ltd. is doing fairly well, while its cousin PetroChina is a slug. Go figure. Could be CNOOC's natural gas segment is getting a boost from rising demand.
Crashing hard. Where it bottoms out, who knows?
On discount lately. The CEO says they'll bounce back, just like last year.
Baidu and other China leaders can't get any traction here. Just a matter of time, perhaps, until the Beijing Olympics has an effect.
Nike trading in a range. Spooky here.
Just watching Mr. Softee for now.
China Life Insurance finally leveling out. What do the technical junkies call it? An ascending triangle ... which means it may break out. Or not.
Suntech Power is appealing right here.
There are probably dozens of better stocks than Chipotle right now. But I'm still watching.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Top 25: #2 Intuitive Surgical
ISRG has leveled off ... at ts 50-day SMA. Pricey, only for the faint of heart. I'll wait.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Top 25: #2 Intuitive Surgical
Intuitive Surgical blew my mind with their recent earnings report. Are the discount requests from hospitals a valid concern going forward? Maybe. For now, they're kings of their world. At this price, though, ISRG is way too pricey.
Friday, February 1, 2008
Moving targets
No kidding. Volatile doesn't begin to describe today's session. Hoku Scientific was up more than 10%, then retraced. Google traded down to 510, climbed back up to 529 and is hovering at 525 now. I picked up GOOG at 529, pondered getting more at 512, but was gun-shy. Then I got more at 526.
I emptied out of RIMM and AAPL. No catalyst ahead for either, and RIMM is among the most abused of all high-growth stocks. For short-term trading, there was no point in being in either anymore. I even sold my NTDOY.PK, which seasonally trades down between January and March.
Microsoft's bid to buy Yahoo has kept today's market slightly positive when it probably was going to sell off. Yahoo could hold out for more than $31 per share, but that would be ballsy on their part. Leverage belongs to MSFT. Yahoo opened at 28-plus, came down to 27-plus, and then returned to 28.32. Is Yahoo a good trade here? Seems that it should be.
Intuitive Surgical has kicked arse today on great earnings, and so has Flowserve. Too pricey now, of course. PetroChina and CNOOC and upstanding today with gains of about 5%. Still trading cheap relative to their moving averages.
Goldman Sachs was hovering at 200 before I took a nap (6 a.m. Hawaii time). Now GS is at 207. Boy, talk about what coulda been easy money. China Mobile is up even though Cramer panned it yesterday. Of my Top 25, only six are in negatoid territory: RIMM, AAPL, BIDU, AMZN, MSFT and GOOG. I still hold on to Google. Good chance it can rebound as it did last July after that earnings report disappointed the street. I don't plan to wait two months, though, for a run.
I emptied out of RIMM and AAPL. No catalyst ahead for either, and RIMM is among the most abused of all high-growth stocks. For short-term trading, there was no point in being in either anymore. I even sold my NTDOY.PK, which seasonally trades down between January and March.
Microsoft's bid to buy Yahoo has kept today's market slightly positive when it probably was going to sell off. Yahoo could hold out for more than $31 per share, but that would be ballsy on their part. Leverage belongs to MSFT. Yahoo opened at 28-plus, came down to 27-plus, and then returned to 28.32. Is Yahoo a good trade here? Seems that it should be.
Intuitive Surgical has kicked arse today on great earnings, and so has Flowserve. Too pricey now, of course. PetroChina and CNOOC and upstanding today with gains of about 5%. Still trading cheap relative to their moving averages.
Goldman Sachs was hovering at 200 before I took a nap (6 a.m. Hawaii time). Now GS is at 207. Boy, talk about what coulda been easy money. China Mobile is up even though Cramer panned it yesterday. Of my Top 25, only six are in negatoid territory: RIMM, AAPL, BIDU, AMZN, MSFT and GOOG. I still hold on to Google. Good chance it can rebound as it did last July after that earnings report disappointed the street. I don't plan to wait two months, though, for a run.
Top 25: #21 Intuitive Surgical
ISRG 254.00 +19.00 (+8.1%)
50-day SMA: 299.51 | 100-day SMA: 281.21 | 200-day SMA: 221.75
Intuitive Surgical hit a low of 227 intra-day before bouncing. Volume was only a wee bit up. Cheap here, but the bears still hoard this stock.
50-day SMA: 299.51 | 100-day SMA: 281.21 | 200-day SMA: 221.75
Intuitive Surgical hit a low of 227 intra-day before bouncing. Volume was only a wee bit up. Cheap here, but the bears still hoard this stock.
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
Pupule portfolio
Is this commercial real estate issue a real problem or is CNBC just looking for more crap to scare the market with? I don't trust media in general, and for good reason. It's always about filling space in the headlines, filling a certain unwritten "quota" of bad news, day in and day out.
Screw the media. I want real answers, not stupidass gibberish about supposed commercial real estate issues. And if that's a problem, what in the hell does it have to do with Apple's bottom line?
Same deal with this problem with the Iranians and our Navy. Media jumps all over it like it's the catalyst for WWIII, but leave it to Ben Stein to set it straight: It was a few idiots on a speedboat trying to stir up crap. Ignoring them was the best response. Stein is right. That's no reason to get involved in yet another war. You wouldn't waste time with the schizophrenic fool sitting on a curb. Why waste time with a few in a speedboat? The media thinks that it has a responsibility to blow everything up to epic proportions. Bastards.
Anyway, this may have been the bulk of the bottom — today's early dip, that is. If not, so be it. Here's what I've added to the faux Pupule portfolio.
AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
AAPL | in at 177.64 (11 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
AAPL | in at 171.25 (18 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
AAPL | in at 179.40 (22 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 344.31 (6 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
BIDU | in at 345.21 (9 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
BIDU | in at 344.10 (12 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
CEO | in 167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
CHL | in at 84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
CHL | in at 85.22 (47 shares) | 40% of position | 1/7/08
CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 123.98 (16 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
CMG | in at 117.87 (25 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
CMG | in at 118.58 (34 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
EBAY | in at 32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at 30.44 (131 shares) 40% of position | 1/7/08
FLS | in at 90.50 (11 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08
FLS | in at 90.45 (22 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08
FLS | in at 90.38 (33 shares) | 30% of position | 1/9/08
FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 56.14 (36 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
FMCN | in at 56.20 (54 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
FMCN | in at 56.13 (71 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
FWLT | in at 149.94 (7 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08
FWLT | in at 143.49 (14 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08
FWLT | in at 142.90 (21 shares) | 30% of position | 1/9/08
GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 649.25 (3 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
GOOG | in at 631.68 (5 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
GOOG | in at 653.20 (6 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
GS | in 214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
ISRG | in at 299.98 (7 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
ISRG | in at 271.73 (11 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
ISRG | out at 263.64 (21 shares) | net -467.45 (-7.8%)
LFC | in 80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
LULU | in at 38.45 (52 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
LULU | in at 36.93 (81 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
LULU | in at 34.00 (108 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 58.03 (52 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
MCD | in at 57.08 (70 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08
MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.61 (58 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
MSFT | in at 33.45 (90 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
MSFT | in at 34.44 (116 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 62.11 (48 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
NKE | in at 61.83 (65 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08
NTDOY.PK | in at 67.00 (15 shares) | 10% of position | 1/8/08
NTDOY.PK | in at 68.44 (29 shares) | 20% of position | 1/9/08
PTR | in 181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
RIMM | in at 99.83 (20 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
RIMM | in at 96.44 (31 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
RIMM | in at 98.55 (41 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 72.99 (41 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
VMW | in at 74.50 (53 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08
Screw the media. I want real answers, not stupidass gibberish about supposed commercial real estate issues. And if that's a problem, what in the hell does it have to do with Apple's bottom line?
Same deal with this problem with the Iranians and our Navy. Media jumps all over it like it's the catalyst for WWIII, but leave it to Ben Stein to set it straight: It was a few idiots on a speedboat trying to stir up crap. Ignoring them was the best response. Stein is right. That's no reason to get involved in yet another war. You wouldn't waste time with the schizophrenic fool sitting on a curb. Why waste time with a few in a speedboat? The media thinks that it has a responsibility to blow everything up to epic proportions. Bastards.
Anyway, this may have been the bulk of the bottom — today's early dip, that is. If not, so be it. Here's what I've added to the faux Pupule portfolio.
AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
AAPL | in at 177.64 (11 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
AAPL | in at 171.25 (18 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
AAPL | in at 179.40 (22 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 344.31 (6 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
BIDU | in at 345.21 (9 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
BIDU | in at 344.10 (12 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
CEO | in 167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
CHL | in at 84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
CHL | in at 85.22 (47 shares) | 40% of position | 1/7/08
CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 123.98 (16 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
CMG | in at 117.87 (25 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
CMG | in at 118.58 (34 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
EBAY | in at 32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at 30.44 (131 shares) 40% of position | 1/7/08
FLS | in at 90.50 (11 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08
FLS | in at 90.45 (22 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08
FLS | in at 90.38 (33 shares) | 30% of position | 1/9/08
FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 56.14 (36 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
FMCN | in at 56.20 (54 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
FMCN | in at 56.13 (71 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
FWLT | in at 149.94 (7 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08
FWLT | in at 143.49 (14 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08
FWLT | in at 142.90 (21 shares) | 30% of position | 1/9/08
GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 649.25 (3 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
GOOG | in at 631.68 (5 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
GOOG | in at 653.20 (6 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
GS | in 214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
ISRG | in at 299.98 (7 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
ISRG | in at 271.73 (11 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
ISRG | out at 263.64 (21 shares) | net -467.45 (-7.8%)
LFC | in 80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
LULU | in at 38.45 (52 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
LULU | in at 36.93 (81 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
LULU | in at 34.00 (108 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 58.03 (52 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
MCD | in at 57.08 (70 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08
MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.61 (58 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
MSFT | in at 33.45 (90 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
MSFT | in at 34.44 (116 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 62.11 (48 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
NKE | in at 61.83 (65 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08
NTDOY.PK | in at 67.00 (15 shares) | 10% of position | 1/8/08
NTDOY.PK | in at 68.44 (29 shares) | 20% of position | 1/9/08
PTR | in 181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
RIMM | in at 99.83 (20 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
RIMM | in at 96.44 (31 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
RIMM | in at 98.55 (41 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 72.99 (41 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
VMW | in at 74.50 (53 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08
Pupule portfolio
The market is beyond ridiculous now. Bear market? Or just a sharp correction? Whatever the case, here are more additions to the faux portfolio.
AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
AAPL | in at 177.64 (11 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
AAPL | in at 171.25 (18 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 344.31 (6 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
BIDU | in at 344.31 (6 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
BIDU | in at 345.21 (9 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
CEO | in 167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
CEO | in 167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
CHL | in at 84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
CHL | in at 85.22 (47 shares) | 40% of position | 1/7/08
CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
CHL | in at 85.22 (47 shares) | 40% of position | 1/7/08
CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 123.98 (16 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
CMG | in at 123.98 (16 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
CMG | in at 117.87 (25 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
EBAY | in at 32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at 30.44 (131 shares) 40% of position | 1/7/08
EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at 30.44 (131 shares) 40% of position | 1/7/08
FLS | in at 90.50 (11 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08
FLS | in at 90.45 (22 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08
FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 56.14 (36 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
FMCN | in at 56.14 (36 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
FMCN | in at 56.20 (54 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
FWLT | in at 149.94 (7 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08
FWLT | in at 143.49 (14 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08
GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 649.25 (3 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
GOOG | in at 649.25 (3 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
GOOG | in at 631.68 (5 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
GS | in 214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
ISRG | in at 299.98 (7 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
ISRG | in at 299.98 (7 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
ISRG | in at 271.73 (11 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
LFC | in 80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
LULU | in at 38.45 (52 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
LULU | in at 38.45 (52 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
LULU | in at 36.93 (81 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 58.03 (52 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 58.03 (52 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
MCD | in at 57.08 (70 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08
MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.61 (58 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
MSFT | in at 34.61 (58 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
MSFT | in at 33.45 (90 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 62.11 (48 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 62.11 (48 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
NKE | in at 61.83 (65 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08
NTDOY.PK | in at 67.00 (15 shares) | 10% of position | 1/8/08
PTR | in 181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
RIMM | in at 99.83 (20 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
RIMM | in at 99.83 (20 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
RIMM | in at 96.44 (31 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 72.99 (41 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 72.99 (41 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
VMW | in at 74.50 (53 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08
Sunday, January 6, 2008
Pupule portfolio
Includes new additions to the faux portfolio
AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CEO | in $167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
CHL | in at $84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at $32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GS | in $214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
LFC | in $80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
PTR | in $181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CEO | in $167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
CHL | in at $84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at $32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GS | in $214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
LFC | in $80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
PTR | in $181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
Pupule portfolio
Friday, Jan. 4 additions to the faux portfolio
AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
Friday, January 4, 2008
Ins and Outs
Jon Najarian says the Fed must act, but even if the Fed were to slash rates, wouldn't they take their sweet ol' time as usual? That's why papertrading is no substitute for the real deal. With my Ins and Outs of the Top 25, it's easy to say, 'Yup, dive in on the cheap stocks today.' It's tempting only in real life. On paper, easily done. AAPL at 180? Deal. RIMM at 103? In.
Worst-case scenario: Fed refuses to act until its end-of-January meeting (if it acts) and the market crashes. Best-case scenario: Fed makes a bold move, earnings reports (which begin on Monday) are more bullish than expected. Market rises.
How bearish has the market become? Last week, only eight of my Top 25 were below their 50-day simple moving averages. yesterday, the number increased to 12. Today? Eighteen. Those of us in cash will reign.
1. AAPL 180.05 -14.88 (-7.6%) | 50-day SMA: 183.26 | 100-day SMA: 164.98
Big money got out of the big growth stocks today. AAPL is below its 50-day SMA for the first time since mid-November. Volume was the biggest since that period, too. MacWorld is around the corner. Inch in.
2. GOOG 657.00 -28.33 (-4.1%) | 50-day SMA: 684.78 | 100-day SMA: 621.23
Interesting price point here. Inch in is fine with an eye on a dip to the 100-day SMA (621). If GOOG falls through 621, it's a horror film in real life.
3. RIMM 103.35 -9.47 (-8.4%) | 50-day SMA: 112.82 | 100-day SMA: 103.10
Unlike AAPL and GOOG, volume in RIMM today wasn't as extreme. That doesn't give RIMM long any semblance of comfort. How can RIMM fall below its pre-earnings price? RIMM blitzed estimate and raised guidance. The patient will be rewarded. When the market recovers, RIMM will be among the rally leaders. Price is nice here to start inching in.
4. ISRG 305.00 -16.75 (-5.2%) | 50-day SMA: 313.95 | 100-day SMA: 271.47
Amazing. ISRG was so far above its moving averages just days ago, and now it's below its 50-day SMA. Inch in, though I think it may pull back to 275 if the Fed does nothing.
5. NTDOY.PK n/a
6. POT 142.65 -4.23 (-2.9%) | 50-day SMA: 123.57
Potash is almost immune to market turbulence and it's not the only fertilizer stock rocking the free world. Too pricey still.
7. CHL 83.88 -1.56 (-1.8%) | 50-day SMA: 89.83 | 100-day SMA: 81.82
Bears are in charge of this great stock. Four of the last six sessions have been down for China Mobile, and those four trading days had big volume compared to the up sessions. I'd continue to inch in here with an eye on 80 as a key support level.
8. PTR 176.00 +5.36 (+3.1%) | 50-day SMA: 199.40 | 100-day SMA: 184.71 | 200-day SMA: 157.72
PetroChina was due for a rally, and with crude oil hovering near $100/barrel, why not now? I started inching into PTR in the Pupule portfolio recently and will continue to do so at these levels. The world will always need oil. China needs oil. OK, maybe alternative energy becomes substantial within five years. That's plenty of time for PTR to run.
9. FSLR 245.58 -20.29 (-7.6%) | 50-day SMA: 215.47 | 100-day SMA: 163.93
Finally, a gap down, and yet, First Solar is miles from any kind of a fair price. Wait.
10. MCD 57.05 -0.88 (-1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 58.61 | 100-day SMA: 55.15
A pullback like this in McDonald's is absolutely stupid. Now 11% down from its recent high, MCD is still selling a ton of latte, a ton of snack wraps (kids love 'em) and basically stealing customers from Starbucks. (A Mickey D and Starbucks were built next to each other recently in Honolulu. Guess which one is always packed and which one is half-empty?) The "Dollar Menu" at McDonald's is BUILT for recessions. Certainly worth inching in here.
11. STP 81.84 -6.38 (-7.2%) | 50-day SMA: 71.64
Buy here? Fuggedaboudit. Today's pullback is a speck of dust compared to this insane run from 45. Wait.
12. CMG 127.01 -14.69 (-10.4%) | 50-day SMA: 135.77 | 100-day SMA: 124.02
Chipotle Mexican Grill is getting cheaper and cheaper. This is a nice price to inch in, but will consumers opt to buy fast, healthy Mexican food rather than the dollar menu at Mickey D's?
13. BIDU 361.00 -14.09 (-3.7%) | 50-day SMA: 367.50 | 100-day SMA: 313.93
After five down days in a row, Baidu is worth inching in here. Still easily capable of falling to support level at 300.
14. FWLT 159.69 -9.48 (-5.6%) | 50-day SMA: 150.46
Recession proof? Possibly. But this price is still too high.
15. FLS 93.20 -2.95 (-3.1%) | 50-day SMA: 91.71
Another stock that thrives in global growth, but pricey here. Wait.
16. FMCN 55.71 -3.27 (-5.5%) | 50-day SMA: 57.00 | 100-day SMA: 52.83
Down big on moderate volume, worth inching in here.
17. GS 199.93 -4.91 (-2.4%) | 50-day SMA: 218.79 | 100-day SMA: 209.50 | 200-day SMA: 212.21
Goldman Sachs is king and emperor of the financials, the Godfather of Greenbacks. And yet, the stock is on thin ice right here; 200 is a key support level. If GS falls through, next stop is 180, and then 160. Inching in is a good idea, but don't dive head first.
18. NKE 61.74 -0.97 (-1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 64.06 | 100-day SMA: 60.86
Fair price, almost good. Six down days in a row, but I like the growing international exposure (China) and commitment.
19. CEO 170.50 +0.66 (+0.4%) | 50-day SMA: 176.57 | 100-day SMA: 159.95
Like PetroChina, CNOOC Ltd. is a state-owned entity in the Middle Kingdom. I missed the boat on CEO twice: once at 91, later at 111. With the latter, the P/E was only 12. Then it ran to 215. Here, CEO is still a fair price, but I'd inch in only. The stock has run up with increasing volume for two days and could be due for a pullback.
20. VMW 80.49 -3.46 (-4.1%) | 50-day SMA: 94.54 | 100-day SMA: 87.04
Dead money for a few weeks now unless you're a short. Nice price for a near-term trade, though. Inching in for the Pupule portfolio with an eye on support at 71.
21. LULU 40.54 -4.22 (-9.4%) | 50-day SMA: 43.95 | 100-day SMA: 42.03
Today's hellacious jobs report casts a bad omen for retailers. Pricey yoga pants ($100/pair) aren't a big priority if and when we head into a recession. But I do think that lululemon athletica's core customers are not affected by layoffs in the financial and homebuilding sectors. LULU's customers will continue to work out, and they will show off the results by purchasing lululemon pants. Women 18-35 will keep on keepin' on. They will keep spending. It's the vanity factor. It works well.
22. MSFT 34.38 -0.99 (-2.8%) | 50-day SMA: 34.65 | 100-day SMA: 31.86
The Halo effect is done. What drives Mister Softee from here? As Sgt. Schultz often said, "I see nothing!" Scaling in here for a near-term trade on the Pupule portfolio.
23. AMZN 88.79 -6.42 (-6.7%) | 50-day SMA: 87.82 | 100-day SMA: 87.19
Another stock, like RIMM, that will lead a market rally if the Fed cuts. Amazon bluntly told the world that unlike other struggling online retailers, its sales were quite fine, thank you. Price is better, but not quite good yet. Wait.
24. EBAY 31.30 -1.54 (-4.7%) | 50-day SMA: 33.51 | 100-day SMA: 35.19 | 200-day SMA: 34.20
If the country is heading for a recession, it will be the eBays of the world that will benefit. Still, the stock took a hit today. Inching in on the Pupule portfolio.
25. LFC 73.00 -1.64 (-2.2%) | 50-day SMA: 83.99 | 100-day SMA: 81.68 | 200-day SMA: 66.44
Does anyone really think life insurance won't work in China? This is a land, as I've mentioned before, where ancestor worship was once the rule. As the middle-agers accumulate wealth, they will put their hard-earned money into life insurance while the younger generation plays the stock market.
On the cusp: Taking a close look this weekend at Costco and Altria as additions to the Top 25.
Worst-case scenario: Fed refuses to act until its end-of-January meeting (if it acts) and the market crashes. Best-case scenario: Fed makes a bold move, earnings reports (which begin on Monday) are more bullish than expected. Market rises.
How bearish has the market become? Last week, only eight of my Top 25 were below their 50-day simple moving averages. yesterday, the number increased to 12. Today? Eighteen. Those of us in cash will reign.
1. AAPL 180.05 -14.88 (-7.6%) | 50-day SMA: 183.26 | 100-day SMA: 164.98
Big money got out of the big growth stocks today. AAPL is below its 50-day SMA for the first time since mid-November. Volume was the biggest since that period, too. MacWorld is around the corner. Inch in.
2. GOOG 657.00 -28.33 (-4.1%) | 50-day SMA: 684.78 | 100-day SMA: 621.23
Interesting price point here. Inch in is fine with an eye on a dip to the 100-day SMA (621). If GOOG falls through 621, it's a horror film in real life.
3. RIMM 103.35 -9.47 (-8.4%) | 50-day SMA: 112.82 | 100-day SMA: 103.10
Unlike AAPL and GOOG, volume in RIMM today wasn't as extreme. That doesn't give RIMM long any semblance of comfort. How can RIMM fall below its pre-earnings price? RIMM blitzed estimate and raised guidance. The patient will be rewarded. When the market recovers, RIMM will be among the rally leaders. Price is nice here to start inching in.
4. ISRG 305.00 -16.75 (-5.2%) | 50-day SMA: 313.95 | 100-day SMA: 271.47
Amazing. ISRG was so far above its moving averages just days ago, and now it's below its 50-day SMA. Inch in, though I think it may pull back to 275 if the Fed does nothing.
5. NTDOY.PK n/a
6. POT 142.65 -4.23 (-2.9%) | 50-day SMA: 123.57
Potash is almost immune to market turbulence and it's not the only fertilizer stock rocking the free world. Too pricey still.
7. CHL 83.88 -1.56 (-1.8%) | 50-day SMA: 89.83 | 100-day SMA: 81.82
Bears are in charge of this great stock. Four of the last six sessions have been down for China Mobile, and those four trading days had big volume compared to the up sessions. I'd continue to inch in here with an eye on 80 as a key support level.
8. PTR 176.00 +5.36 (+3.1%) | 50-day SMA: 199.40 | 100-day SMA: 184.71 | 200-day SMA: 157.72
PetroChina was due for a rally, and with crude oil hovering near $100/barrel, why not now? I started inching into PTR in the Pupule portfolio recently and will continue to do so at these levels. The world will always need oil. China needs oil. OK, maybe alternative energy becomes substantial within five years. That's plenty of time for PTR to run.
9. FSLR 245.58 -20.29 (-7.6%) | 50-day SMA: 215.47 | 100-day SMA: 163.93
Finally, a gap down, and yet, First Solar is miles from any kind of a fair price. Wait.
10. MCD 57.05 -0.88 (-1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 58.61 | 100-day SMA: 55.15
A pullback like this in McDonald's is absolutely stupid. Now 11% down from its recent high, MCD is still selling a ton of latte, a ton of snack wraps (kids love 'em) and basically stealing customers from Starbucks. (A Mickey D and Starbucks were built next to each other recently in Honolulu. Guess which one is always packed and which one is half-empty?) The "Dollar Menu" at McDonald's is BUILT for recessions. Certainly worth inching in here.
11. STP 81.84 -6.38 (-7.2%) | 50-day SMA: 71.64
Buy here? Fuggedaboudit. Today's pullback is a speck of dust compared to this insane run from 45. Wait.
12. CMG 127.01 -14.69 (-10.4%) | 50-day SMA: 135.77 | 100-day SMA: 124.02
Chipotle Mexican Grill is getting cheaper and cheaper. This is a nice price to inch in, but will consumers opt to buy fast, healthy Mexican food rather than the dollar menu at Mickey D's?
13. BIDU 361.00 -14.09 (-3.7%) | 50-day SMA: 367.50 | 100-day SMA: 313.93
After five down days in a row, Baidu is worth inching in here. Still easily capable of falling to support level at 300.
14. FWLT 159.69 -9.48 (-5.6%) | 50-day SMA: 150.46
Recession proof? Possibly. But this price is still too high.
15. FLS 93.20 -2.95 (-3.1%) | 50-day SMA: 91.71
Another stock that thrives in global growth, but pricey here. Wait.
16. FMCN 55.71 -3.27 (-5.5%) | 50-day SMA: 57.00 | 100-day SMA: 52.83
Down big on moderate volume, worth inching in here.
17. GS 199.93 -4.91 (-2.4%) | 50-day SMA: 218.79 | 100-day SMA: 209.50 | 200-day SMA: 212.21
Goldman Sachs is king and emperor of the financials, the Godfather of Greenbacks. And yet, the stock is on thin ice right here; 200 is a key support level. If GS falls through, next stop is 180, and then 160. Inching in is a good idea, but don't dive head first.
18. NKE 61.74 -0.97 (-1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 64.06 | 100-day SMA: 60.86
Fair price, almost good. Six down days in a row, but I like the growing international exposure (China) and commitment.
19. CEO 170.50 +0.66 (+0.4%) | 50-day SMA: 176.57 | 100-day SMA: 159.95
Like PetroChina, CNOOC Ltd. is a state-owned entity in the Middle Kingdom. I missed the boat on CEO twice: once at 91, later at 111. With the latter, the P/E was only 12. Then it ran to 215. Here, CEO is still a fair price, but I'd inch in only. The stock has run up with increasing volume for two days and could be due for a pullback.
20. VMW 80.49 -3.46 (-4.1%) | 50-day SMA: 94.54 | 100-day SMA: 87.04
Dead money for a few weeks now unless you're a short. Nice price for a near-term trade, though. Inching in for the Pupule portfolio with an eye on support at 71.
21. LULU 40.54 -4.22 (-9.4%) | 50-day SMA: 43.95 | 100-day SMA: 42.03
Today's hellacious jobs report casts a bad omen for retailers. Pricey yoga pants ($100/pair) aren't a big priority if and when we head into a recession. But I do think that lululemon athletica's core customers are not affected by layoffs in the financial and homebuilding sectors. LULU's customers will continue to work out, and they will show off the results by purchasing lululemon pants. Women 18-35 will keep on keepin' on. They will keep spending. It's the vanity factor. It works well.
22. MSFT 34.38 -0.99 (-2.8%) | 50-day SMA: 34.65 | 100-day SMA: 31.86
The Halo effect is done. What drives Mister Softee from here? As Sgt. Schultz often said, "I see nothing!" Scaling in here for a near-term trade on the Pupule portfolio.
23. AMZN 88.79 -6.42 (-6.7%) | 50-day SMA: 87.82 | 100-day SMA: 87.19
Another stock, like RIMM, that will lead a market rally if the Fed cuts. Amazon bluntly told the world that unlike other struggling online retailers, its sales were quite fine, thank you. Price is better, but not quite good yet. Wait.
24. EBAY 31.30 -1.54 (-4.7%) | 50-day SMA: 33.51 | 100-day SMA: 35.19 | 200-day SMA: 34.20
If the country is heading for a recession, it will be the eBays of the world that will benefit. Still, the stock took a hit today. Inching in on the Pupule portfolio.
25. LFC 73.00 -1.64 (-2.2%) | 50-day SMA: 83.99 | 100-day SMA: 81.68 | 200-day SMA: 66.44
Does anyone really think life insurance won't work in China? This is a land, as I've mentioned before, where ancestor worship was once the rule. As the middle-agers accumulate wealth, they will put their hard-earned money into life insurance while the younger generation plays the stock market.
On the cusp: Taking a close look this weekend at Costco and Altria as additions to the Top 25.
Tuesday, December 25, 2007
No. 4 Intuitive Surgical: Nosebleed territory
This stock looks like RIMM earlier in the year (pre-split). ISRG refuses to dip below its 50-day SMA and has come nowhere near its 100-day SMA since March. Such is the way for a company with great, life-saving technology.
ISRG is now closer to 400 than it is to 200, which is right about where its 200-day SMA is (201). If ISRG makes a move to 402, I expect to see major unloading from fund managers.
ISRG is now closer to 400 than it is to 200, which is right about where its 200-day SMA is (201). If ISRG makes a move to 402, I expect to see major unloading from fund managers.
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
Bargain hunting in a nervous market
What is great? What is cheap? Phil Town did it his way, the way he learned from a mentor: buy great companies on the cheap. Of course, we all have different definitions of "great," but we probably can agree on cheap. For me, a bargain has less to do with P/E and more to do with discount, particularly of a growth stock. So, with those notions in mind, here's a look at what's on sale. Or not.
Apple 191.79
On paper: Back in the 90s, 120s and 130s, the stock had longs feeling impatient. After all, when AAPL hit an all-time high of 85, it promptly sunk into the 50s and took 10 months to return to the 80s. That's one hell of a wait. But since breaking out of the 90s with initial news of the newfangled iPhone, the stock has been on a tear. A double in six months is something magnificent. The stock has traded above its 10-day moving averages almost all the time since August.
The skinny: holiday season is upon us, but it is still more than two months until the next earnings report. Can AAPL continue to ramp up without news?
Of course, the best and simplest approach is to buy and hold. My faux buy-Apple-only (monthly) portfolio is nothing but green, green, green.
Pupule says: As much as I love the company and the products, I will wait.
Google 741.79
On paper: Screw paper. This is a "holy shit" stock and has been since mid-September, when GOOG traded at 520. The stock is well above its 10-day moving averages. There is not much to be said for a stock that has traded up nearly every day for two months. The news keeps coming out, good, great and peerless.
The skinny: The good news won't be endless, and there will be a pullback sooner or later. Then again, this stock sat at 460-500 for such a long time that those of us who passed on GOOG (me) deserve to suffer as fans on the sidelines.
Pupule says: Wait. Do not chase.
Intuitive Surgical 317.07
On paper: This was below 140 three months ago. Holy crud. The stock is trading below its 10-day SMA (320.79), but above its 10-day EMA (311.38).
The skinny: Cramer helped move the stock with his "buy-buy-buy!" directive a couple of weeks ago. Until major buying volume returns, ISRG is too hot to handle.
Pupule says: Wait.
Research in Motion 131.64
On paper: Upgrades and hype, like Citigroup's new label as the "best stock of 2008" don't hurt. The stock is far above its moving averages.
The skinny: RIMM is one of the very few stocks I feel comfortable viewing as a long-term hold. It is also a stock that moves in boxes (re: Nicolas Darvas), which makes it attractive as a trading vehicle.
Pupule says: Until there is a kryptonite for RIMM, it is almost a "can't lose" stock. Still, best to wait until it comes down below its moving averages, hopefully some time in this decade.
Baidu 407.70
On paper: Far above its moving averages. Frothy.
The skinny: No news to lift it any further. BIDU has gone straight up from 310 to 430 (Tuesday) without a breather.
Pupule says: Wait, wait, wait.
China Life Insurance 92.98
On paper: The China selloff hit LFC in a nice way. At 92, it is trading at the same levels it did at the end of September. A bargain? Relatively, yes, for a stock that has doubled in six months. Trades well below its 10-day EMA (95.78) and SMA (97.16).
The skinny: I always thought of LFC as a "safe" play but had no idea it would explode. All of the more sedate sectors seem to explode in China thanks to the influx of new arrivals to the growing middle class. Family-oriented societies are going to invest in life insurance, no ifs, ands or buts.
Pupule says: A fair buy here. Still down 13% from it's all-time high.
China Mobile 92.06
On paper: stock hit 104 on Oct. 29, more than double since Aug. 16. The recent selloff brought the stock below 90, and it had a moderate comeback on Tuesday to 92. Still below its 10-day averages (EMA 95.26, SMA 98.01). Nowhere close to its 50-day EMA (83.78) and SMA (81.96).
The skinny: The stock has bounced off every gap down since the August low.
Pupule says: Yeah, I got out at 87 the other day, but this a classic red chip stock on sale — 16% off its high. Buy.
Chipotle Mexican Grill 131.88
On paper: CMG is down from its all-time high of 141, now touching its 10-day EMA (131.71) and under its 10-day SMA (132.31).
The skinny: The stock has run to two new highs in the past month, but volume really kicked up on the second leg up. Is there another leg left? Dunno.
Pupule says: Wait. Yesterday's volume was very weak, and it's a big if whether there are still more buyers out there than sellers.
CNOOC Ltd. 190.03
On paper: After hitting 218 on Halloween, CEO has sold off and now trades below its 10-day moving averages.
The skinny: Crude is at its all-time highs, which means the weakness in the stock right now is not a happy signal. After doubling in less than three months, the stock could be in for a long stretch of consolidation.
Pupule says: I loved this stock in the 90s, but didn't have the foresight to buy at a P/E of 11. Anyone with insights about this stock, please chime in.
PetroChina 229.42
On paper: Like CNOOC, PetroChina has tumbled as quickly as it spiked. After running from 190 to 266 in just five sessions (mid-October), PTR went stagnant, then dropped on Monday. It trades below its 10-day moving averages (EMA 239, SMA 244).
The skinny: Do you trust a state-owned sector leader that is charged with geopolitical undercurrents? If so, then this is your cup of tea.
Pupule says: The price screams buy. Buying PTR and/or CEO almost feels (I imagine) like buying a piece of the mob. They won't be defeated, and you'll never really get a clean look at their books. I'm not picky that way. I wish I'd been long PTR and CEO all along.
VMware 110.04
On paper: After debuting at 50 in mid-August, the stock has risen as high as 150%. VMW is down 12% from its high of 125, now below its 10-day EMA (112.89). Four down days in a row with shrinking volume is a good sign for longs.
The skinny: Virtualization. Dominance. Most likely to succeed? Probably.
Pupule says: For VMW groupies, this is clearly a buy. For bargain hunters, worth waiting more. At 110, the stock is at a pivotal point. Market gyrations could give us a cheaper price. Those of us who pass on VMW will be lamenting our ineptitude when it hits 300 in one year. Just my little guesstimate.
Apple 191.79On paper: Back in the 90s, 120s and 130s, the stock had longs feeling impatient. After all, when AAPL hit an all-time high of 85, it promptly sunk into the 50s and took 10 months to return to the 80s. That's one hell of a wait. But since breaking out of the 90s with initial news of the newfangled iPhone, the stock has been on a tear. A double in six months is something magnificent. The stock has traded above its 10-day moving averages almost all the time since August.
The skinny: holiday season is upon us, but it is still more than two months until the next earnings report. Can AAPL continue to ramp up without news?
Of course, the best and simplest approach is to buy and hold. My faux buy-Apple-only (monthly) portfolio is nothing but green, green, green.
Pupule says: As much as I love the company and the products, I will wait.
Google 741.79
On paper: Screw paper. This is a "holy shit" stock and has been since mid-September, when GOOG traded at 520. The stock is well above its 10-day moving averages. There is not much to be said for a stock that has traded up nearly every day for two months. The news keeps coming out, good, great and peerless.
The skinny: The good news won't be endless, and there will be a pullback sooner or later. Then again, this stock sat at 460-500 for such a long time that those of us who passed on GOOG (me) deserve to suffer as fans on the sidelines.
Pupule says: Wait. Do not chase.
Intuitive Surgical 317.07
On paper: This was below 140 three months ago. Holy crud. The stock is trading below its 10-day SMA (320.79), but above its 10-day EMA (311.38).
The skinny: Cramer helped move the stock with his "buy-buy-buy!" directive a couple of weeks ago. Until major buying volume returns, ISRG is too hot to handle.
Pupule says: Wait.
Research in Motion 131.64
On paper: Upgrades and hype, like Citigroup's new label as the "best stock of 2008" don't hurt. The stock is far above its moving averages.
The skinny: RIMM is one of the very few stocks I feel comfortable viewing as a long-term hold. It is also a stock that moves in boxes (re: Nicolas Darvas), which makes it attractive as a trading vehicle.
Pupule says: Until there is a kryptonite for RIMM, it is almost a "can't lose" stock. Still, best to wait until it comes down below its moving averages, hopefully some time in this decade.
Baidu 407.70On paper: Far above its moving averages. Frothy.
The skinny: No news to lift it any further. BIDU has gone straight up from 310 to 430 (Tuesday) without a breather.
Pupule says: Wait, wait, wait.
China Life Insurance 92.98
On paper: The China selloff hit LFC in a nice way. At 92, it is trading at the same levels it did at the end of September. A bargain? Relatively, yes, for a stock that has doubled in six months. Trades well below its 10-day EMA (95.78) and SMA (97.16).
The skinny: I always thought of LFC as a "safe" play but had no idea it would explode. All of the more sedate sectors seem to explode in China thanks to the influx of new arrivals to the growing middle class. Family-oriented societies are going to invest in life insurance, no ifs, ands or buts.
Pupule says: A fair buy here. Still down 13% from it's all-time high.
China Mobile 92.06
On paper: stock hit 104 on Oct. 29, more than double since Aug. 16. The recent selloff brought the stock below 90, and it had a moderate comeback on Tuesday to 92. Still below its 10-day averages (EMA 95.26, SMA 98.01). Nowhere close to its 50-day EMA (83.78) and SMA (81.96).
The skinny: The stock has bounced off every gap down since the August low.
Pupule says: Yeah, I got out at 87 the other day, but this a classic red chip stock on sale — 16% off its high. Buy.
Chipotle Mexican Grill 131.88
On paper: CMG is down from its all-time high of 141, now touching its 10-day EMA (131.71) and under its 10-day SMA (132.31).
The skinny: The stock has run to two new highs in the past month, but volume really kicked up on the second leg up. Is there another leg left? Dunno.
Pupule says: Wait. Yesterday's volume was very weak, and it's a big if whether there are still more buyers out there than sellers.
CNOOC Ltd. 190.03
On paper: After hitting 218 on Halloween, CEO has sold off and now trades below its 10-day moving averages.
The skinny: Crude is at its all-time highs, which means the weakness in the stock right now is not a happy signal. After doubling in less than three months, the stock could be in for a long stretch of consolidation.
Pupule says: I loved this stock in the 90s, but didn't have the foresight to buy at a P/E of 11. Anyone with insights about this stock, please chime in.
PetroChina 229.42
On paper: Like CNOOC, PetroChina has tumbled as quickly as it spiked. After running from 190 to 266 in just five sessions (mid-October), PTR went stagnant, then dropped on Monday. It trades below its 10-day moving averages (EMA 239, SMA 244).
The skinny: Do you trust a state-owned sector leader that is charged with geopolitical undercurrents? If so, then this is your cup of tea.
Pupule says: The price screams buy. Buying PTR and/or CEO almost feels (I imagine) like buying a piece of the mob. They won't be defeated, and you'll never really get a clean look at their books. I'm not picky that way. I wish I'd been long PTR and CEO all along.
VMware 110.04
On paper: After debuting at 50 in mid-August, the stock has risen as high as 150%. VMW is down 12% from its high of 125, now below its 10-day EMA (112.89). Four down days in a row with shrinking volume is a good sign for longs.
The skinny: Virtualization. Dominance. Most likely to succeed? Probably.
Pupule says: For VMW groupies, this is clearly a buy. For bargain hunters, worth waiting more. At 110, the stock is at a pivotal point. Market gyrations could give us a cheaper price. Those of us who pass on VMW will be lamenting our ineptitude when it hits 300 in one year. Just my little guesstimate.
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Big down, big up ... now what?
Just a list of possibilities to keep my fried brains in line for tomorrow's market.
a. Buy more BIDU (345) before Thursday's earnings report.
b. Buy more RIMM (120), which ran wild on China distribution news to 128 before pulling back.
c. Buy more AAPL (183) after big earnings gain run-up.
d. Buy more VMW (107) before tomorrow's earnings report.
e. Buy more CROX (67) while the price is fairly low.
f. Buy more NTDOY (70) while the price is fairly low and holiday season nears.
g. Buy GOOG (670) for the first time.
h. Buy ISRG (300) for the first time.
i. Buy more STV (40).
j. Do nothing and just wait.
Best move is no move. We had a big selloff on Friday and part of Monday, then a major reversal part of Monday and today. Nothing is cheap, but CROX and NTDOY aren't priced too high. Waiting will also give me time to do some homework. Longtop Financial (LFT) looks a bit interesting; the IPO is on tomorrow.
IPO Home: Longtop Financial Technologies (LFT)
China Digital TV (STV) seems to ride (or drag) on the coattails of Baidu. Without any earnings report in the near term, I don't know if STV will sustain its recent gains after Baidu announces on Thursday. If Baidu does not blow out estimates, the entire China sector could dip (with the exception of energy/oil stocks).
And this: Is there really anything to the notion that blockbuster earnings are announced early in the week for full effect, while weak earnings are held back to the end of the week to minimize investor backlash? My gut says Baidu will report another strong quarter, and CEO Robin Li is one of the best. But the time to get more Baidu was on Friday, and I chose VMware instead.
a. Buy more BIDU (345) before Thursday's earnings report.
b. Buy more RIMM (120), which ran wild on China distribution news to 128 before pulling back.
c. Buy more AAPL (183) after big earnings gain run-up.
d. Buy more VMW (107) before tomorrow's earnings report.
e. Buy more CROX (67) while the price is fairly low.
f. Buy more NTDOY (70) while the price is fairly low and holiday season nears.
g. Buy GOOG (670) for the first time.
h. Buy ISRG (300) for the first time.
i. Buy more STV (40).
j. Do nothing and just wait.
Best move is no move. We had a big selloff on Friday and part of Monday, then a major reversal part of Monday and today. Nothing is cheap, but CROX and NTDOY aren't priced too high. Waiting will also give me time to do some homework. Longtop Financial (LFT) looks a bit interesting; the IPO is on tomorrow.
IPO Home: Longtop Financial Technologies (LFT)
China Digital TV (STV) seems to ride (or drag) on the coattails of Baidu. Without any earnings report in the near term, I don't know if STV will sustain its recent gains after Baidu announces on Thursday. If Baidu does not blow out estimates, the entire China sector could dip (with the exception of energy/oil stocks).
And this: Is there really anything to the notion that blockbuster earnings are announced early in the week for full effect, while weak earnings are held back to the end of the week to minimize investor backlash? My gut says Baidu will report another strong quarter, and CEO Robin Li is one of the best. But the time to get more Baidu was on Friday, and I chose VMware instead.
Monday, October 22, 2007
Raising Apples to the sky
Apple announced earnings and blew everything out of the water. The Co even raised guidance by 3¢ higher than what the street expected, from $1.39 to $1.42 per share. The stock is now trading at $181 plus in after hours. It had been at $175 before CNBC reported the numbers.
I've never rated a stock above A grade until now. With the raised guidance and blowout earnings, Apple is now an A+ stock. No question about it. Along with Research in Motion and Intuititve Surgical — both tore up earnings and raised guidance — and Google, there are at least four A+ stocks. Google doesn't guide the street, but the Co is a distinctly rare definition of A+.
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