Market just pissing it all away

No surprise here. No news still would've moved the Dow Jones and Nasdaq down, but the Fed bailout of Bear Stearns ... the road is so crooked, nobody can see straight. CNBC says two days ago, Bear Stearns insisted that there were no liquidity problems. And yet, today, they accept a bailout and the market goes haywire, down 2%. Nasdaq is down 61 points.

The very thing that annoys me to no end — people borrowing and spending beyond their limits — is what has put our economy under enormous, severe pressure on several fronts. Many of us can't pay for our homes anymore. Many of us are in major credit debt. China basically owns our ass. And that gets worse with the dollar falling off a cliff. Even the Japanese have us by the nuggets now that the dollar is worth only ¥99.

Is anything in the green today? Barely.

• Blue Nile is up a fraction, but at 40, it has been destroyed since hitting a high of 100 last year
• Ninetowns Internet (NINE) is up 2.3% to 2.23, but is down from its all-time high of 7.20
• China Medical is up fractionally to 40
• Dick's Sporting Goods is up 2.5% to 26.66
• Gamestop is up 2.4% to 48.31
• Boeing is up 1.3% to 75.17
• Healthways is up almost 1% to 32.73

But those are far and few in between. The vast majority of the market is deep in a red sea. Commodities had been steady until today's selloff. Gold hit $1,009 per ounce. IShares Silver Trust (SLV) is up a bit to 204.86. Global silver supply will dry up within a decade, supposedly. That reminds me of the talk that phosphorus supply will evaporate within 50 years, and will hit the fertilizer sector in a bad way. It's only fitting that "liquid gold" may become a source of phosphorus some day. Quite gross, but in the realm of possibility.

Suckage wasn't as bad as I thought

I manage to beat myself down pretty good when a trade goes sour. But looking over my mistakes, I can feel a little better about recent sells. No, I didn't sell at the right price or time. That's listed for the record in my full disclosure (at right). But these stocks that I recently got out of have dipped even lower since.

Amazon (AMZN) • sold @ 90.11 • currently 86.01 (after hours)

China Mobile (CHL) • sold @ 87.54 • currently 86.49

Crocs (CROX) • sold @ 41.70 • currently 40.76

Garmin (GRMN) • sold @ 117.20 • currently 89.00

Longtop Financial (LFT) • sold @ 25.90 • currently 23.19

lululemon athletica (LULU) • sold @ 43.70 • currently 41.00

Blue Nile (NILE) • sold @ 81.25 • currently 80.70

China Digital TV (STV) • sold @ 37, 39 • currently 35.24

VMware (VMW) • sold @ 102.72 • currently 99.80

Yingli Green Energy (YGE) • sold @ 34.85 • currently 36.00

I bought back only into one of these stocks: YGE. Other than that, I'm more than happy to wait out this storm. VMware and China Mobile are the most attractive of the rest.

Pruning the barren pupule tree

Sold CHL (loss of $7/share), LULU (gain of $2/share) and YGE (even). Just too much unpredictability and negativity to hold these babies, even with small positions. I'm not going to wait for these stocks to bleed to death. YGE is actually hanging tough, and had been early in the day. But I will stay out of these. I'm still holding BIDU, MCD, NTDOY, UA, RIMM, AAPL and VMW. MCD and UA are for my nephew.

There's no doubt in my mind. With the Fed out of rate cuts and the US economy slowing, our market is bearish and getting more so by the day. Companies like Crocs and Under Armor are raising guidance and getting pummeled. The only stocks seemingly resistant to all of the financials (Citigroup) and housing subprime crap and economic slowdown today are Google and Baidu. Blue Nile, which reports tomorrow, is up 3.1%. McDonald's is up fractionally.

Other than that, I'm just relieved to prune those stocks out of my folio. When the market turns, I'll be back in.

Train goes through Xinhua

Xinhua. I am in Xinhua Financial — better known as Longtop Financial Technologies — at 33.70. Not exactly a great entry point, but I think as far as IPOs go, this one has a good chance to keep climbing for a few days. Got out of NILE and sold half my position in STV to enter LFT.

Though the Co has strong potential, catering to financial services in China, I view this through trade-colored glasses only. I just lament that I was away at work during that last hour of the session, when the stock was went from 27 to 32.

Too early for cheap buys?

DJ -366 (-2.6%)
NASDAQ -74 (-2.6%)
S&P 500 -39 (-2.5%)

AAPL 170.80 -2.70 (-1.9%)
Apple reports on Monday. My favorite, an A grade stock. If they can thump the estimates and raise guidance, AAPL becomes an A+ stock. Still trading above its 10-day SMA (168).

VMW 97.74 -3.81 (-3.75%)
VMware reports on Wednesday. May sell off on good or bad news because of the run from 50 since August. I'm late to this stock, but I understand the strength it has in its industry — its dominant stance. Currently an A- grade stock and it's trading below its 10-day SMA (101). Big run, decent pullback, hugely popular. That means it won't stay down long. Very tempting.

BIDU 314.75 -5.25 (-1.6%)
Baidu reports on Thursday. Google's upswing since yesterday's earnings report could (should?) have a mirror effect on Baidu, right? Why would it have a positive effect on earnings rather than today? (Maybe the selloff was just too strong and broad.) I'm split on that notion. Nevertheless, BIDU has a shrewd CEO in Robin Li, and I don't see him disappointing the street as long as he's got Big Red backing the Co up.

Baidu is trading below its 10-day SMA (320), which sounds preposterous considering this was at 161 on August 16. (The 50-day SMA is a bit more reasonable at 254.) Tempting here, also.

Looking back, I should've sold Blue Nile and China Digital TV when I had nice profits. I bought NILE at 80, it ran to 106, and now is back at 81. I bought STV at 29, 32 (and 51). It ran to 55. Now it's back to 39. Some positions are holds. Other positions are trades. These two should've been trades.

NILE is trading below its 10- and 50-day SMAs, but I hesitate to add more here. Even if I disagree with the downgrade (Citigroup) and even if I don't pay mind to the insider selling, the market is less than pleased. Can't fight the trend, can't add more here. I'm holding my little position.

STV is a long-term hold, but I would've profited by selling half my position high. The pullback for a recent IPO is almost destined. But I will hold on here.

Amazon is taking up space in the portfolio. I got in at 89, which is where it remains today. Though today's selloff hit tech and retail hard, AMZN lost just 10¢. The stock moves drastically only on earnings. The astronomical P/E keeps the stock on a leash for most of the quarter. I may get out of AMZN to raise a little more cash. OK, scratch that. I just realized that Amazon reports on Tuesday. Very interesting.

This isn't exactly a bargain sale here, but I've become severely underweight in two of my favorites, Crocs and Nintendo. Haven't sold a share. Just gotten heavy with other stocks. This pullback is an opportunity to fill up on CROX and NTDOY.PK, or perhaps to just wait until Monday. My Friday buys have been stellar in the past few months. Hmm...

Crocs is a relative bargain here at 65.99, well below its 10-day SMA (68). Q2 earnings were reported on August 14, and if Q3 comes out three months later, that would give us longs a Nov. 14 target. That's 26 days away. Too early to add more?

Nintendo (70.80) is milking the Wii and DS and everything it owns for all it can — but without emptying the whole sack. No question in my mind that the Co will deliberately ration the Wii as long as demand is huge. Remember, Nintendo was kicked to the curb, particularly by U.S. shareholders, for a few years there. The Co remembers this and isn't just tight with the product overseas, but is also overly discerning with its shares in Tokyo. (Investors there can only buy in bundles of 100 shares, and that comes out to about $41,000. Talk about an illiquid market in stock 7974.)

Today's pullback brings Nintendo's stateside pink sheets below the 10-day SMA (72), but I'll wait. The recent run above 70, all the way to 75, needs time to digest in this new box/trading range. I'm loathe to buy it high as I've done before.

Is it just me or was Maria Bartiromo a lot more hyper today on the trading floor? Luv Maria but when the market is on a major selloff, it's like watching a skittish cat trying to run across a busy freeway. When she's back at the desk, Maria is back to her calm self. Time to pick up some lululemon pants and hit the yoga workouts, Money Honey.

Oil hit $90/barrel today, then pulled back to 88.60. Guy Adami on Fast Money thinks the next $8-10 is downward. Dennis Gartman said crude should be at $75, and added that gold will fall if we are in a recession, as Julian Robertson said on CNBC today. If oil is due for a pullback, that will exacerbate the declines for PTR and CEO. I still want CEO, but I want it cheap. It won't get back to 92, but I will still be picky.

Tide is low for bargain hunters of Blue Nile

If you believe in Blue Nile, then the recent downgrade by Citigroup can be interpreted as pure bull kaka. The small float and the negative calls have sent the stock plummeting from a high of 105 all the way down to today's 81.84.

Couple the poor forecasts and insider selling by the Co's top dawgs, and it would seem reasonable that NILE deserves the 20% drop. But the Co hasn't warned about declining revenue or earnings. Could it be that sensational growth has suddenly gone flat? Where's the proof? Have Zales and Tiffany's entered the online jewelry wars? I can see the possibility of slowing growth, but not much else. So I'm holding my shares, which I bought at 80.

Pupule says: If you really, really, really like Blue Nile, this is a screaming buy. A stock that drops below its 10-day SMA (94) and 50-day SMA (88) is rare in this environment. That is, a stock I've rated A-. Me? Wrong? We'll see.

Sketchy, shady street slime

Mr. Nice Guy within me thinks that hey, when Morgan Stanley downgraded Baidu yesterday, well, it was about reality and the possibility of BIDU's growth rate slowing, revenues tailing off, blah blah blah.

But Mr. Skeptic in me knows that Morgan Stanley laid off a bunch of employees yesterday, and in a further potentially profitable manuever, called for the downgrade to spur a selloff ... and inevitably, cheap shares to buy for the books.

Mr. Nice Guy within me also thinks that Citigroup's downgrade of Blue Nile (NILE) this morning is more of a possible downturn in online jewelry purchases, a byproduct of a slowing economy, indirectly related to foreclosures.

But Mr. Skeptic knows that it's a bunch of bullcrap, that Citigroup is simply trying to knock down NILE's shares to rake up cheap. With all the exposure to the mortgage meltdown, a whole lotta big boys out there are going to keep trying to scare the average investor out of his/her shares, all so they can get a stock like NILE down to 90 or 80 bucks when it's worth more than 100 right now.

Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me. But it won't scare me. Hell no. Still don't believe me? How about this: Deutsche Bank downgraded Citibank from buy to sell this morning, citing severe management ineptitude. You don't think Citigroup is desperate to do whatever it takes to maximize a profit?

I'm holding my NILE, you downgrading Citigroup bastards.

Pit stops today for growth kings

Wow. No posts here for three days. Maybe I have a life after all. Some passing thoughts on a supposedly down day.

• Georges Yared is right. Again. Just a few days ago, he wrote that AAPL's life below $150 per share was coming to an end soon. The stock has run from the 130s to today's high of 150.22 in a short time. Yared has been a persistent bull when it comes to certain growth stocks. He's been right. Bull's eye right, and that's why I continue to absorb his writing.

• BIDU continues to fluctuate today. With the NAS flitting below and above neutral in this first hour, BIDU dropped to 295 before rallying back to 300. An insane run for a stock that hit a subprime-sludge low of 161 on August 16. I can't help but think that a lot of money has gone to BIDU stock because a) it's in China, and b) it's a search engine. And that's it. Profits are nothing special. All Baidu really has is huge growth margins in a country of 1.3 billion people, most of whom still don't have computers. That's where cellphone web access comes into play, and that's why I wonder why BIDU is taking so long to anchor itself in that realm. Chinese access the web more by cellphone than computer. It's not even close. I just wonder if Alibaba, a major IM company that's 40% owned by Yahoo, will ever open an ADR in the states.

• CROX is running up again. A lot of bulls are expecting the Co to share robust mid-Q3 numbers during a presentation this morning. The stock broke through the 60 barrier on Monday with major volume.

• Among the small group of stocks on the plus side early in the day was GRMN, which hit an all-time high of 120. Stock pulled back and is now at 117.58. The stock has doubled since late May, and I wonder if a split is imminent. I'm not a big fan of splits, but I don't avoid them, either.

• LULU has been sitting for much of the morning at 39. When Cramer pumped the stock last week with a long segment, LULU made a couple of runs to the 41-plus range. I think LULU sits in this range until earnings, but you never know...

• MCD is consolidating after last week's magical run off the announcement of a 50% increase in the dividend. I got a few shares, mainly for my nephew (he loves the chicken snack wrap and has loved McDonald's all his life), but I don't see another run in the shares until earnings. Maybe the Co can make a deal with Apple and give away iTune songs in the McCafe and at the drive-thru. So wacky that it could happen.

• NILE had a couple of runs to 105-106 recently, but pulled back to 99-100 both times. Today, the stock is locked mostly in a 98-100 range, taking a breather since its run from 80 during the past two weeks. No complaints here. I'm just glad I got a little piece at 80. Sure, I wish I'd gotten more at 80 (or even 75), but this was pre-Fed rate meeting, so what I did (by my standards) was spooky. The older I get, the more adverse I am to risk. It's the dang truth and I can't deny it.

• RIMM broke into positive territory before much of the market and has kept its gains. I wonder how sales are going in China.

• Another favorite of my nephew's, Under Armor, hasn't been much in this rally. UA is down 1.2% to 63.92. I just think the forward P/E (47) is still a bear argument that a lot of bulls have bought. I can't argue against it when CROX is trading at a forward P/E of 23.

• Nintendo is forming a base here above 60, much to the relief of longs like me who had foolishly bought more shares at these levels. Though I won't be buying any stock at these lofty prices, it's reassuring to know that my A and A- stock picks have great reasons that more than justify their valuations. The Wii is still a killer app, as is the DS, and that won't change going into Christmas season.

I love you, I hate you: Well, well. Focus Media has finally cleared up its Q2 filing mess and the stock is up 15.4% so far. I would be angry about this, as a former FMCN long, but I'm past that. At some point, this is still going to be a piece of Chinese advertising that I want, but I need a bargain price first.

And speaking of China, Yingli Green Energy is up 3.7% to 25.64. The whole oil patch craziness is intriguing. Oil prices go up, CNOOC Ltd., PetroChina and Exxon go up, and so do the solar/clean energy stocks. I'm just surprised, with the U.S. economy slowing, that I haven't kept my toes in China's waters.

Crocs will move on

Tragically, kids are suffering foot injuries while wearing Crocs as they get on escalators. This, of course, happens on the mainland. In Hawaii, where most people wear slippers (flip flops) everywhere, it's not a problem. Maybe it's being accustomed to them, knowing almost by instinct how to walk with them on ramps, stairs ... escalators.

I hope parents become more alert up on the mainland and have their children take off their Crocs sandals before getting on escalators. Better safe than sorry. As for CROX the stock, this will come to pass. The products in themselves do not kill or injure anyone, no more than a fly swatter can blind you, no more than a banana peel can kill you when you slip on its peel.

Chiquita is still in operation after all these years. I think Crocs will be around for quite some time.

The negative, coast-to-coast news about the escalator problem has driven the stock down to 55 while the rest of the market has soared into the stratosphere following the Fed rate cuts. CROX is the only stock among my A and A- grade picks that is even close to its 13-day moving average. In fact, CROX is well below the 13-day MA and closing in on its 50-day MA. Great growth stocks don't do this very often. The last ones I saw like this were Blue Nile, Flowserve and Google about one week ago. A buy at that time of any of the three has proven golden for longs. I mustered up enough pre-Fed courage to buy small positions of NILE and RIMM.

Whether Blue Nile can sustain its gains remains to be seen. NILE surged from 75 (two Fridays ago) to 98, matching an all-time high, today. Then came the pullback to 91 before the stock closed at 95. Volatile, yes. And no longer a sensible, technically-sound buy.

Exhuberence and Temperance

What the heck, all caution has been thrown to the wind. For now, anyway. The Fed cuts the rates by 50 points and the market goes to the moon.

Dow Jones: +335 (2.5%) to 13,739
S&P 500: +43 (2.9%) to 1,519
Nasdaq: +70 (2.7%) to 2,651

Strangely enough, I wasn't pleased. I want to make money. I like making money. I hate losing money. But the rate cuts threw fundamentals and technicals out the window in some ways. It may be a while, maybe a long, long time, before we see bargain prices in the market again. I'm all about getting great stocks on the cheap (most of the time).

So where does discipline fit into this fastbreak, no-huddle offense of a market? I used today's momentum to inch my way into positions for two more A grade stocks that I had been out of: Garmin and Amazon. Inching into the A graders isn't painful for me. The fundamentals, the growth rates ... I've liked them for months. So I got a small position of GRMN at 107 and another of AMZN at 89. No pain, just discomfort from buying shares of stocks well above their moving averages.

Also bought shares of McDonald's for my nephew and myself. Just the monthly addition I do for him, and he's been bullish on McDonald's numbers for a few months, well before the recent global growth numbers. He used to be bullish on Happy Meals, and now he's bullish on chicken snack wraps.

A generous market washes away mistakes: buying AAPL too high (above moving averages) at 135 and 144; buying NTDOY.PK at 62; buying UA at 65. I inched into RIMM last Friday at 87, not on technicals, and that could've turned into a mistake, too.

But a generous market also rewards technically sound entry points with a boost of turbo power: NILE within its 13-day MA last week at 80 (which I failed to get at 75 because of a glitch in my account); NTDOY.PK at 55; CROX at 40.

Inching into RIMM

I went against all technical fundamentals today and scooped up a small slice of Research in Motion, which closed up 1.7% to 87.26.

The raised target from 83 to 110 by RBC Capital did not hurt longs. It did hurt me, though, since I've been waiting for an opportunity to buy RIMM cheap. It trades well above its moving averages, and if the Fed disappoints the market on Tuesday, RIMM will drop with the rest of the market.

On August 16, in the midst of the subprime mortgage mess, RIMM shares sank to 61, far below its 13- and 50-day SMA and EMA. This is one of my A grade stock picks, a fundamentally strong company with incredible growth numbers. I don't own a BlackBerry, nor have I seen one in person, but I hear that these devices can change a baby's diaper, feed an elderly person and pump gas into your car all at once.

Now I have small morsels of three A grade stocks: Apple, Crocs and Research in Motion. Amazon and Garmin remain out of reach ... for now. I may regret this small buy of RIMM, but I'll be waiting for a bargain price. When I have waited, I've been rewarded with shares of Nintendo (55), which traded below its 13-day MA at the time, and Blue Nile. I got NILE at 80, right at its 13-day MA, on Monday after not being able to buy at 75 (on its 50-day MA) last Friday.

When I haven't been disciplined — buying A/A- grade stocks at technically sound prices — it's been costly. Apple at 144 and 135. Nintendo at 62 (ouch!). The good side of sticking with top stocks is that I'm in for the long haul, so the short-term dumbass mistakes won't kill me. But more and more, I am engrossed with bargain prices, and in this schizo market — we've had two significant declines in the past month — patience is immensely rewarded for long-term holders. I hope to be one of them.

To Infinity and Beyond

Waking up at 7 a.m. Hawaii time is no big deal. Waking up with the market only 3 hours from the final bell, well, that's never boring. This morning, I woke to find NILE up $6 (6.5%) since yesterday. Now trading at 86, Nile is up 11 since last Friday.

That's good news, of course, for NILE longs. For me, it's bittersweet. I pulled a buy order at $75 on Friday. Then on Monday, I got in at 80, but just a small slice of the pie. (The stock wasn't cheap any more, above it's 50-day MA, but still trading at its 13-day MA.) In my mind, I'm keeping dry powder for a correction, not for a stock that had languishied at its 50-day moving averages last week.

So, with Nasdaq up 17 points, it'll be interesting to see what the stock does. Yesterday, NILE ran up to 83 mid-day, then pulled back to 80 by the close. Will it do the same today? If it does, then it would be clear that the stock is being used and abused by traders. Or perhaps former longs are getting over the immense insider selling that tackled the stock in the past few weeks. My guess is that it's the former.

To infinity and beyond? Aah, I'm guessing not.

NILE singing the blues today

The Nasdaq is up 1.1% (29 points) and Blue Nile is sinking. How does this happen? Well...

1. Co chairman sold 180,000 shares of NILE at $83.86
2. No other negative news, with the exception of Brian Bolan's call for NILE longs to sell while the stock price is lofty and far above basic valuations, as he explained today.

Seeking Alpha: Blue Nile's Soaring Stock Is Opportunity To Sell

Is Bolan right? As he says openly in the post, one of the analysts that wasn't invited to be in on NILE's Q2 conference call. Is he a little bitter? Possibly, but his breakdown of the numbers is tough to argue against. Maybe he's right. Maybe NILE is really worth no more than $70.

So why is it that Zales and Tiffany's are so slow to enter the online market for diamonds and jewelry? Aren't the profit margins insanely attractive?

On the chart, today's 4.7% pullback brings the stock below 13-day EMA and SMA. I'm wary of a buy here, but I'm watching closely. This is a fickle stock and nowhere near its recent high of 98.

A bite of forbidden fruit

I was a bad boy today. I broke discipline, chased a stock (sorta) and bought it while it sits high above its moving averages. Naughty, naughty.

That's what Apple can do to me. I sold my shares long (a few months) ago at $93 and regretted it ever since. Call it a longing for a lost love. It was my fault, babe. I should never have left you. I'll treat you like a princess now. Please take me back. Yeah, it's that tacky, that emotional. OK, let's just say I've been using Apple products long enough to know that I trust the Co. Yeah, I would've bought at 111 two weeks and one day ago. Complete, utterly cultish faith.

But I didn't have dry powder then. I did today. And after I bought my nephew his beloved piece (another one) of Under Armor — yes, he wears it almost daily — I scoured my A and A- grade stock picks for bargains. The rest of my A graders were far above their MAs. Some of my A- stocks were reasonable. Flowserve was up like the rest of the market, but within its moving averages. So was (is) Google. Even Blue Nile was just a skosh above its 13-day MAs. At 84, NILE is well below its high of 98.

I kept pining for Apple, though. The stock is off its high (149), Monday is Labor Day, which leaves only Tuesday as a possible ramp up to Wednesday's probable introduction of new iPods. Or not. I find myself thinking more like a trader than an investor. I have no plans to trade AAPL. If the stock dips on Tuesday, maybe I'll get more. Or maybe I'll stick with discipline and shop for a reasonable price in NILE.

CEO would've been a good buy yesterday at 116, but it gapped to 122 before the opening bell. Crazy behavior for an oil and gas Co, but I've come to expect that out of CEO. I find myself as interested in the geopolitics surrounding China's No. 2 oil/gas producer as anything else. Still don't own a share.

Apple? I'm halfway back to what I had before I sold in May. The fruit is good. The buy at this price, though, should be forbidden to all cult members.

Another pullback, another opportunity?

Traders are in fat city, while investors are in another sea of red. The best place to be is in cash, unless your skills are good enough to trade some while sitting on a long position.

What the FOMC talks about, whatever is read in its minutes, whatever fear there is about no fed rate cut ... until I hear that we're doomed to a recession, it's all fluctuation.

If this is another buying opportunity, then my A and A- grade stocks are worth a look. They all have solid fundamentals and excellent growth. The market has tended to sell off for days at a time, so I don't expect to find any bargains. Not yet.

AMZN down 3.1%, now 76.22
Here, the stock has returned in the vicinity of its 13- and 50-day simple and exponential moving averages, but not in an ideal range. Getting close, though. Pupule says: Wait.

AAPL down 4.1%, now $126
The stock is in a fairly good place now, right in the midst of its SMA and EMA. Could AAPL fall to $111 as it did two weeks ago? Of course. This is a stupid market, but one that must be respected. I'd go in cautiously, if anything. Pupule says: Buy.

CROX down 4.4%, now $57
Since dipping to $44 two Thursdays ago, the stock has zoomed up with the best of the growth babies. This is the seventh session in a row that CROX finished above its SMA and EMA. Even with today's pullback, best to be patient. I love my Crocs, but it is undeniably volatile. Be a smart shopper. Pupule says: Wait.

GRMN down 5.4%, now $96
Down four of the past five sessions. Stock now trades below its 13-day MAs. Worth watching closely. Buyable here, but a bargain could be around the corner. Pupule says: Buy.

RIMM down 4.8%, now $77
Trading just above its MAs. Patience. Pupule says: Wait.

BIDU down 5.7%, now $199
Nice pullback on slightly lower volume today. Stock is still above MAs, but moving in the right direction for a smart shopper. Pupule says: Wait.

CMG down 2.4%, now $97
Nice. The stock is now below its 13-day MAs. Avocado and dairy prices be damned, this Co is great. Pupule says: Buy.

CEO down 8.3%, now $113
That was quick. The stock was up to a mid-day high of $125 yesterday, and traders took their profits today. Can't blame them. The stock was $92 two weeks ago. Now CEO is below its 50-day SMA and moving closer to its other MAs. Inch in slowly. Pupule says: Buy.

FLS down 1.9%, now $69
Despite blowout earnings, the stock never moved above its MAs when the market bounced back last week. Trading right within its MAs now. Pupule says: Buy.

GOOG down 1.3%, now $506
Like FLS, Google wasn't hit hard today. Like FLS, the stock has a lid on it and hasn't moved above its MAs recently. Not exactly a bargain, but a fair price here. Pupule says: Buy.

NTDOY.PK down 2.7%, now $57
Coming back down to its MAs. Watch closely. Pupule says: Wait.

POT down 3.2%, now $82
More like $82.98. Starting to return to its MAs, stock is now touching its 13-day SMA and EMA. Pupule says: Buy.

UA down 1.4%, now $62
Plunging deeper, now below its 13-day MAs, but well above its 50-day MAs. Careful here. Inch in. Pupule says: Buy.

Rowing the magnificent Blue Nile

Blue Nile is exquisitely sexy, no question, and the fact that NILE is trading well below its recent Q2 earnings blowout high of $98 makes the stock tempting here.

But there's reason to believe the stock will stay put for now, perhaps until Q3 earnings are out. Brian on Howard Lindzon's blog explains the technicals. Even with great fundamentals and growth, the Amazon of the diamond industry is worth waiting for, and not much more right now.

No bargains left, except for . . .

It's official in Quarryville. All of my A and A- grade stock picks are out of buying range.

From Apple to RIMM, Baidu to Under Armor, they're all on fire and too hot to touch. No, wait. There is one ... no, make that two stocks that are still trading within 13- and 50-day simple and exponential moving averages (one-year chart).

FLS 70. Flowserve, with its blowing Q2 earnings, has been somewhat slow to follow the bull run of the past week. In fact, FLS sat at 69, with barely a gain, for almost the entire day. The stock is 15% up from its bottom last Thursday, but trading below its 13- and 50-day SMA and EMA. Still a steal at this price. Pupule says: Strong buy.

GOOG 515. Even with today's modest improvement, the stock is still trading within its moving averages. There's so much action in and around the company, from wireless advertising to China inroads, that I really don't know why the stock has been relatively stagnant. It is up from the low of 480 last week, but my guess is that the big boys and retail buyers are still punishing the Co for missing Q2 estimates. So the Co spent a little more to hire quality employees in China (and elsewhere). This is good for those of us who want shares on the cheap. They might remain cheap until Q3 earnings come out. Pupule says: Buy.

Blue Nile was buyable until today, when it ran up nearly 5% to 86. I hate to miss the boat on this great young Co, but patience is key. I'll wait for a pullback. And cross my fingers.

Under Armor had a slight gain today, but its moving averages are starting to catch up. At 65, UA is well off its all-time high of 73, but today's volume was extremely light. I'll wait for the stock rather than chase it.

If Bank of America's rescue of Countrywide Financial yesterday after the market wasn't affirmation enough, I don't know what else would be. Next week should be interesting. The market is relatively calm for a change, but if the street pours into tech stocks, the gadgets might soar again. Then I might be wishing I'd picked up some Garmin and Rimm, and more Apple.

Shopping list: FLS, GOOG, NILE still good buys

For one day, I'll quit with the whining and pat myself on the back. I stuck to discipline, avoided stocks out of their moving averages and was quickly rewarded. Nintendo, which I grabbed more shares of at 55.75 yesterday, had a nice jump to 57.70 today.

Sure, NTDOY.PK simply follows the action of its big brother stock, 7974, on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. But it feels good to be under control and buy a stock at a wise entry point. It wasn't just Nintendo, of my 'Buy' and 'Strong buy' summaries yesterday, that moved up today. But first, a look at my A grade picks that were all on 'Wait' status a day ago.

AMZN 77. So many lovers, so many haters. The stock is well off both its high of 86 and last week's bottom of of 70. Like all my A and A- picks, there are great growth margins and numbers, period. Not a dud among them. But as far as an entry point goes, AMZN is still hovering above its 13- and 50-day simple and exponential moving averages. Today's pullback helps, but we're not there yet. Pupule says: Wait.

AAPL 131. What do we call investors who have ridden Apple to a million bucks? Applionaires? I don't believe in "all in" strategies. There are just too many great growth stocks to not be diversified. But AAPL is absolutely my favorite, both in a Peter Lynchian way (I've owned a PowerBook for three years) and in a fundamental way. The stock is well above its recent bottom of 111, but a long ways from its high of 148. Today's drawback is nice, but like Amazon, the stock is still floating above moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

CROX 56. The pullback from yesterday's mid-day high of 60 is no surprise. Since the blowout Q2 earnings, the stock has not gone more than three days without a pullback. When the stock declined since late July, it has pulled back for two to three days in four of five occasions, including the current drop. In other words, this ain't no surprise. Volume also declined substantially today. Is this time to buy more Crocs? It's tempting, but the answer is no. CROX is still trading well above its moving averages. Some consolidation will be good for Crocs lovers. Pupule says: Wait.

GRMN 101. Some consolidation is going on here. The stock is up nicely from last week's bottom of 86 and closing in on the all-time high of 105. Trading above its moving averages. Bite the bullet and be patient. Pupule says: Wait.

RIMM 80. Like CROX, RIMM had an astounding run in the past week, from 61 to 84. This pullback is healthy and today's volume was miniscule. Just a brief breather for the hottest runner in the marathon. And yet, the stock is ridiculously out of range, well above moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

The A graders all pulled back, like I expected. But they're all still better off waiting for than grabbing right now.

BIDU 203. Another sprinter has pulled up for a pit stop. One week ago, Baidu was trading below its 13- and 50-day MA. Now, its way above. A trader's fantasy, but for us long-term investors, 203 is much too high right now. Consolidation in effect. Pupule says: Wait.

CEO 115. In the words of the immortal philosophical giant, Homer Simpson, I say of CNOOC, "Dohhh!!" Loved the stock at its bottom (92). Loved it at 104 earlier this week. Still liked it at 109 yesterday. Today? Ouch. Owee. CEO gapped up before the market opened and held its ground. P/E of 11. Insanely nice. After last week's mid-day low of 92, CEO has gapped up each morning for the past five sessions. Still looks like a wild tech stock on the chart, but it's an oil and natural gas Co with huge upside in China. However, CEO now trades above its moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

CMG 101. Solid consolidation here. The stock went from a post-earnings high of 114 down to a mortage-meltdown bottom of 92. At 101, the stock is trading at the high end of its 13-day MA. Tiny volume today. I think the stock is ready to move again, but this ain't cheap. A great shopper hunts for cheap. Pupule says: Wait.

FLS 69. Great earnings didn't help the stock much during last week's meltdown. Still, Flowserve is rising from last week's low of 62. The high of 79 is still a long way off, and the stock is trading at the lower edge of its 13- and 50-day MA. Up today just 71¢. Pupule says: Strong buy.

GOOG 512. The company is in partnership mode in China, which is a great thing for longs. These guys don't screw around. Mistakes happen, but most of the time, Google wins the hunt. I wonder how long Baidu can fend off the Googmonster. Stock is in the midst of its 13- and 50-day MA. Pupule says: Buy.

NILE 82. Nice and easy, compared to wild and crazy when the Co announced incredible earnings for Q2. Stock is nowhere near its high of 98 and now trades near the high side of its moving averages. Gotta feeling this won't stay cheap for much longer. Pupule says: Buy.

NTDOY.PK 57. The stock has been the slowest to rebound in the past week, but today's 2% move to 57.75 makes me (and my nephew) happy. It was a fair buy yesterday when I got more shares. Today? The stock is now above its moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

POT 85. I remember listening to Potash's CEO talk on Mad Money and came away thinking ... what if ethanol bombs out in the next year? That was a few months ago, and POT blew out the Q2 estimates. The stock pulled back today, but after hitting a bottom of 71 last week, a pit stop is timely. Below its MA last week, above its MA today. Pupule says: Wait.

UA 64. Trades with some similarity to CROX. UA has traded down two days in a row, but shrinking volume is a tell. Won't surprise me if UA rockets tomorrow, but I'm not jumping in. The stock is still trading above its MA. Pupule says: Wait.

The wise prosper in the Wild West

Cna you imagine what it's like to wake up with 2 hours left in the market most mornings? And then to see nothing but blood all over your screen?

Ah, green is a great color. It's not surprising today, of course, not with the action we saw yesterday. I went ahead and started a list of my A and A- grade picks to see how they all fared coming off their lows of yesterday (August 16).

AAPL 121 • low 111 • up 9%

AMZN 74 • low 70 • up 6.5%

CROX 50 • low 44 • up 15.1%

GRMN 93 • low 86 • up 7.6%

RIMM 211 • low 184 • up 14.3%

I'm still trying to lift my jaw off the floor. I'm sure there are a few other amateurs like me who didn't have the dry powder to jump in yesterday even though every fiber in our bodies said "GO!" A lesson well learned about market tops. No matter how great the company, and how impressive the earnings, every market has its top. Just like a cinder-cone volcano. It has to blow. Just takes a tiny spark, whether it's a mortgage massacre or anything else.

Seeing Crocs and Under Armor rip to 15% gains off yesterday's lows is just incredible, but not shocking.

BIDU 177 • low 161 • up 10%

CEO 101 • low 92 • up 10%

CMG 99 • low 92 • up 8.5%

FLS 66 • low 62 • up 6.7%

GOOG 498 • low 480 • up 3.6%

NILE 74 • low 71 • up 5.2%

NTDOY.PK, ask 53.10, bid 53.25 • low 51.95 • up 2.2%

UA 63 • low 54.50 • up 15.8%

I am surprised a bit that Blue Nile is slow to move with them, but maybe there are just more doubters now than there were one or two weeks ago when the stock nearly hit 100. The parallel between NILE and AMZN isn't totally off. When Amazon first rolled out, bears swore that it would be crushed by Barnes & Noble and Borders. Same is true of Blue Nile with Tiffany's and Zale, who could enter the online battle at any time. But they won't, not until NILE has continued to establish its territory in cyberspace.

The only other factor holding Blue Nile back is insider selling, including a sale of more than 320,000 shares by its CEO. Same pattern by CROX execs: blowout quarters, reward follows. Investors get their gains, too, even as shorts cry foul.

NILE is one of the very few stocks trading down for the day, minus 1.6% to 73.84. Talk about a steal.

Anyway, to those of you who stayed dry yesterday and today and loaded up the truck, congratulations. Think I'll go scrape some quarters off the floor of my car to get more Nintendo, which is still at a huge discount after Tokyo followed the Dow's selloff yesterday.

Shopping list ready, but only one foot is in the store

OK, dinner is done, my nephew and mom are fed, and it's time for me and me stocks.

Though the market is still dry heaving at the porcelain throne, CROX finished up 1.5% and closed at $51.96. Nintendo ADRs (NTDOY.PK) followed its Tokyo Stock Exchange upswing and closed up 3.5% to $58.85. But I just have this feeling that I'll be able to scoop up more Nintendo under $55 in the near future.

I still believe the market will heave and ho until Q3 earnings near. My watch list of A, A- and B+ stocks was coated in red paint today. The only exception was Salesforce.com (CRM), which bumped up 2.8% to $44.90 ahead of tomorrow's earnings report.

With such an uncertain state of affairs in and around the market, does it even make sense to consider entry points for favorite stocks? Maybe not. But I have a little free time, so here goes.

AAPL 124
Clearly one of the stocks that big houses have sold off to collect profits and make up for hedge-fund, mortgage-related debacles. Now 16% off its high of 148 and trading well below its 13- and 50-day EMA and SMA. I love Apple and this is a good price, but as with all my A grade picks, there's no telling how low the market will go to make up for the mortgage mess. Pupule says: Buy small.

AMZN 73
For the past four sessions, the stock has traded within its 13- and 50-day EMA and SMA, currently at its lowest level since the big POP after Q2 earnings. Sure, this looks like a buy, but with meager volume and a lot of waffling by buyers until the market finds its footing, there could be a better entry point later. Pupule says: Buy small.

CROX 51
Stock is off its mid-day low of $47 (Friday), but the lack of volume yesterday and today make this a weak move up. Fundamentals and growth of the Co are strong. Stock is within its 13- and 50-day EMA and SMA. Pupule says: Buy small.

GRMN 92
For better or worse, the timing of the Co's Q2 report has helped the stock to stay above its 13- and 50-day EMA and SMA until this week. Love the Co, love the stock, but I can see more consolidation through this crappy market. Pupule says: Wait.

RIMM 206
Still trading above its 13- and 50-day EMA and SMA ... amazing but true. Pupule says: Wait.

BIDU 189
Trading just below its 13-day EMA and SMA, above it's 50-day averages. Though it may feel like BIDU has consolidated for a long enough time, it has gained almost 200% in the past year. Pupule says: Buy small.

CEO 108
Before last week, 108 would have been a total steal. Now? I think there's room on the downside, so patience will be rewarded. Still a great Co in the fastest growing economy in Asia. The stock is trading below its 13- and 50-day EMA and SMA. Pupule says: Buy small.

CMG 96
Stock dropped under its 13-day EMA and SMA today. Terrific Co, worth waiting for, but the price is decent. Pupule says: Buy small.

FLS 68
This is a stronger, better Co than it was before Q2 results, and yet the stock is cheapre now than it was two months ago. Stock is trading well below its 13- and 50- EMA and SMA. Pupule says: Buy small.

GOOG 508
Strangely enough, despite missing estimates for Q2, all the stock has done is consolidate in a range between 498 and 526. Trading below its 13- and 50-day EMA and SMA. Pupule says: Buy small.

NILE 82
After the huge move up following the big Q2 earnings, the stock is finally trading below its 13-day EMA and SMA. Love the growth of the Co. Might wait though. Pupule says: Buy small.

NTDOY.PK 58
As usual, Nintendo's ADRs march to the beat of a different drummer. At this level, the stock is above its 13-, 50- and 200-day averages. Pupule says: Wait.

UA 61
Even the 50% short interest couldn't push the stock higher in this market. Stock is touching its 13-day EMA and SMA. Pupule says: Wait.