Idling and parking (updated)

8:26 am (Hawaii) Some long, fun days for me with summer here, which means I've slept through the past two sessions for the most part. Even though I knew futures were up more than 100 points last night. The Dow is +203 with about 90 minutes left. AAPL is hovering around 570, off its intraday high of 573.85. AGQ is up 5.1% to 43.86, one of the most obvious signs that sentiment is with the bulls, i.e. euro printing is about to crank into full madness.

DGP is barely green today, however. Also note that volume is a pittance, so this move could pop any moment. It's a three-legged chair. It's a lack of sellers more than an onslaught of buyers. Even social media are up: FB +0.9%, YELP +4.3%. Even GRPN +7.4%.

Finnies are rallying again. JPM is +2.6% and FAS is +6.66 percent (not making that up). VXX is down 4.8% and TVIX is -8.9%.

I have some work to do, in and out this morning (yes, it's still morning here in the middle of the Pacific), and I'm not convinced about this move higher. I may dip into DGP or even NUGT with a tight stop, but that's it. This arena is half empty, and if the balloon pops in Europe, the tankage will resume. My gut tells me they have to print, though. It's a conundrum.

Update 10:04 am In and out of FAS for a quick little profit. Got in at 77.70 a few minutes before the closing bell. Swung lower to about 77.45 before it closed strong. A few minutes after the bell, sold at 78.45. They'll puppeteer this thing back to 77.70 or so at some point today, I'm guessing.

Of course, now that I'm out, it will go to 80, then 85, then 90. They must print euros. Simple as that. So why am I not in gold and/or silver? Both have made big runs recently. I'll wait until things cool off a little more before walking into that. Because any whiff of bad news regarding the ECB, eurozone, Germany ... and FAS goes back to 68. And lower.

Monday night library & cinema

Reuters: Spain says market are closing to it as G7 confers (June 5)
Lucas Krupinski: Take a pass on leveraged ETFs (June 5)
Sam Ro: Barclays says a 1980-style market rally is on the table (June 5)
Nicole Foss: 2008 was practice run compared to what comes next (June 4)
Tyler Durden: China purchases record 100 tons of gold in April from Hong Kong (June 4)
Tyler Durden: Now, courtesy of Bridgewater... it's Italy's turn (June 4)
Kenneth Schortgen Jr: Market rumor - Pimco, JPMorgan halt vacations to prepare for economic crash (June 3)
Reggie Middleton: Dead bank deja vu? (June 1)
Dan Norcini: The futility of QE (June 1)

CNBC: Kaminsky accuses Morgan Stanley of painting the tape (June 4)

Bouncy indeedie (updated)

4:11 am (Hawaii) Volume plus a bounce on the bull side got me into FAS at 81.75. I was up a teeny bit when the consumer confidence report was released and I got stopped out flash crash style for a small loss. Within a couple of minutes, FAS rallied off 81.25 and head right up to 82. I re-entered at 82.25, put my stop loss order in and it has ranged around that price since.

AAPL had been up to 570 briefly, came down to 566+ and is now back at 570. If there is no bad news coming down the pike, this bounce could last a few sessions or more. Short squeezes galore.

Update 4:38 am Out of FAS at 82.15, teeny loss. JPM tanked horribly even as FAS stayed above 82. In the meantime, AAPL surged higher. So that ended the FAS trade. Whatever happened with JPM, I wasn't going to stick around waiting to see FAS drop like a rock, too. Got in AAPL at 573 with a stop loss in. AAPL is already up $10 (+1.8%) but if today turns out to be pivotal, even just for a short-term bounce, there's way more upside coming. If.

Update 1:59 pm In AAPL at 573, stopped out at 570.50. Wicked churning and I should've had the sense to stay the hell out. AAPL closed above 572, but dipped below 571 in the past hour or so after hours. Three trades today, three small losses, but psychologically not good. Need to protect confidence and capital.

Bankster purgatory

11:45 am (Hawaii) Morgan Stanley (MS) hit 13.90 early in the day as the RobotMarket pushed financials higher and higher for a second day in a row. But it is now at 13.10 and falling after hours on news that Massachusetts has subpoenaed the company over the Facebook mess.

Add to this the coming congressional hearings into JPMorgan that will give every media channel an abundance of Jamie Dimon footage (ie plank walking interrogation) and it's unlikely FAS and the finnies will rally again for awhile. So why am I not long FAZ?

The whole Greek show tomorrow is going to set the table tomorrow. I'd rather wait for that first.

Rudderless market (updated 12:32 pm)

8:08 am (Hawaii) I still think the robots are in control, just not as firmly as yesterday. AAPL ran to 573 and ran out of steam. The buying ended and it has since pulled back to 563 where it drifts in an abyss. The indices looked about ready to give all its gains back today, but have stayed positive in the past hour.

Somehow someway the financials are getting a "lift". That's where I think G8 hit the switch and got the robots cranked up. Again. 95% of my Debt Spiral list is green, and that includes NBG and STD. JPM is up 5.3% to 34.24 even though it is (in my mind) almost certain that their losses are about to double or triple (or worse).

Sure no stock goes to 0 in a straight line, but this is borderline comedy that insolvent institutions are being propped up on nothing (that we peons can know about). In the end, the printing presses will hum. In the end-end, they will not. But that's not today and I haven't hit a buy order yet. All for the best.

Some reading for your pleasure and education:

Jim Wyckoff: Top 10 mistakes traders make (May 21)

Update 9:25 am Back in FAZ at 26.85. I wanted in at 26.70, missed it by a hair. Was looking for a breakout above 26.80 or a pullback to the range low of 26.55. Indices pummeled in the past 15 minutes. Nasdaq in the red with AAPL back to 557.

Greek/Eurozone has a big day tomorrow. Not looking to play either side, just watching FAZ price action, have my stop loss in place. So much for that dead cat bounce. JPM had been up large today, pulling back now to 34.09. It was at 32.99 early today. Might close there, who knows.

When AAPL started to crater, I just didn't have the guts to short it. I've never shorted anything directly, only through something like FAZ. But AAPL has already hit 546 recently, my Fibonacci retrace price (from 396 to the 644 high), and it was at 521 just two sessions ago. Strange times indeed.

Update 9:41 am FAZ reached higher, above 27.40, before pulling back some to 27.29. My stop loss target has been raised three times already. Maybe four.

Greece's former PM feels no obligation to toe the party line, the EU line, the ECB line, any line. His words today are fuel for the fire on financials like JPM, which is now sub 34 (33.93) and eroding.

BBC (video): Papandreou: Greek euro exit would 'destroy' economy (May 22)

Updated 9:52 am Out of FAZ at 27.33 (+0.48/share). Sticking to price discipline even though FAZ could easily open tomorrow above 27.50 or even 28.00 with the way the whole Greek bank run/Eurozone paranoia is shaking out. Just had to secure a decent profit before traders do the same in these final minutes before the bell.

Might try a very small position right before the bell to play tomorrow's scenario. Just don't see the Greeks coming to any kind of compromise with eurozone. It's too early for the new politicians.

Updated 12:32 pm In all, I changed my stop loss on FAZ eight times in that last trade. It was worth it each time.

Blood in the streets?

4:05 am (Hawaii) There's no blood in the streets. Yet. But one blogger/writer yesterday insinuated that the set up is there for an almost necessary bloodbath-type selloff for a couple of days. It was ChessNwine of ibankcoin.com who put it so frankly, and it makes sense. There are just no buyers for a number of reasons. Vacation. Fear. Lack of will.

There's blood in my account, no joke. I held GSVC overnight, it opened at 18.11 and I breathed a little sigh of relief, being down only about a quarter instead of 75 cents a share. Then it sold off for the next 30 minutes to sub 17. And it looked like the orders were after-hours style. In other words, lack of liquidity had the market maker manipulating price action. I got out at 16.80 for a major loss (-1.55/share) that adds up to more than 3% of my entire account.

That may sound insignificant to you, but I'm a small player and every dollar matters. I violated Rule No. 1: Don't lose money. In this instance, the only way I could've prevented this would've been by putting a stop-loss sell order in. I would've done it at 17.50 or so. But there's no question, this little stock is absolutely controlled and somebody cleared out all the stop losses to get the price back down. Another rule I broke: I didn't know that there had been a secondary on Friday (?) with shares at 16.25, which explains why the price tanked that day.

But price discipline, PRICE DISCIPLINE is always key no matter what events occur, and I had none this morning. It's a different time from the flash crash year; stop loss is almost necessary with a small stock in an extremely thin market. I hope this rant of mine helps someone reading this. Get your stop-loss in on a selloff day like this. Sure, the indices are down fractionally, but just about EVERYTHING is red. There are no buyers, and games will be played that take your stocks to shit.

FAZ rocketed above 27, so of course I regret not holding my shares overnight. The JPM news (losses now $3B) set the tone, along with the Greek bank run. FAZ was available at 26.20 or so early on today, but I was preoccupied with GSVC. They moved almost inversely, simultaneously. One plunged, the other surged.

Wednesday wind-down

2:39 pm (Hawaii) Not holding any FAZ, but the more I catch up on news, the more I wonder why I don't have at least a half-position. Chris Martenson's piece at Zero Hedge breaks it down best.

NY Times: Softening, Merkel says she is open to stimulus for Greece (May 16)

Zero Hedge: Martenson - 'We are about to have another 2008-style crisis' (May 16)

Washington Post: How a bank run could force Greece out of the euro (May 16)

BBC (video): Greek Syriza leader Tsipras attacks EU and Merkel (May 16)
BBC: Watch deposit flight, not the eurocrats (May 16)
CBC (video): Greek bank run (May 16)
NY Times: Flight of Euros Accelerates, Adding to Greece's Worries (May 16)
Zero Hedge: This is the Greek ELA Borrowing Capacity (May 16)
Zero Hedge: What Happens if Greek Payments Stop: Goldman's Thought Experiement on 'The Day After' (May 16)
RT (video): Greek bank run starts (May 16)
Bloomberg: Greek Presiddent Told Banks Anxious as Deposits Pulled (May 15)
Zero Hedge: Has the Greek Bank Run Started? (May 15)
Economic Collapse: Bank runs in Greece will be followed by bank runs in other European nations

Funny how CNBC didn't show any footage of Greek bank runs today. Nada.

Remorse in the rear view (updated)

8:09 am (Hawaii) It was premarket and I was in bed. The alarm went off, I check my sole position, FAZ. It was down in the 24.30s, not long after I'd gotten back in at 24.76 (the day before). I knew it was higher risk than usual since the financials (and JPM) had been beaten to a pulp for such a long time. The bounce had to come at some point, and this was it. I got out at 24.31 and took a small loss.

From there, FAZ eked its way higher, all the way to 24.87 several minutes ago. Now trading at 24.62. I haven't turned the TV on all day, but obviously, the JPMorgan shareholders meeting, the scuttle about possible investigation by Capitol Hill, etc are having an effect. JPM had rallied to 37.27, but is now back at 36.78. Is it a clean bounce or a dead cat bounce?

More annoying than frustrating, it's the trades I didn't make in GRPN and GSVC that I'll remember more. I got in GRPN yesterday at 13.30 and got out at 13.56.

Decided not to re-enter GRPN even though it seemed highly probable that the increase in Facebook IPO share price would have a ripple effect. That on top of the earnings beat and heavy short covering. GRPN opened with a huge gap up at 14.93, and has sold off since to 13.07. Still a 1.3% gain from yesterday's close, but all the after hours trading action has come and gone. This was 9.92 at the close on Friday, so there's going to be plenty of range trading.

GSVC and SVVC are pure beneficiaries of FB's bullish news. GSVC closed yesterday at 17.89, opened at 18.69 and has stayed up here. Now trading at 18.88, up 5.5%. SVVC is up 5.1%. This should've been easy money, but I was overly cautious.

Indices are barely green, but it wouldn't matter for the FB plays. AAPL is trying to stay above 560. No strength there. Today is a chance for bulls to reclaim the market. It's not happening.

9:17 am Back in FAZ at 24.96. Sure, it sucked selling in premarket way back at 24.31, but that's the past.  Moving on. AAPL cratered, as did much of the market, in the past 15 minutes or so, and FAZ began to take off. The Eurozone circus is too much and any big money that thought it would stay long today has pulled out and run for shelter. Can't blame 'em.

FAZ at 25.13, not assuming it stays here or goes higher. Ready to jump with my little parachute any time.

9:25 am Out of FAZ at 25.11, +0.15 per share, small gain. Now FAZ is 25.17. Timing...

10:08 am Traded FAZ for a quickie again, tiny loss. Would've been better off holding that buy at 24.96. I re-entered FAZ at 25.28, goes against my intuition, but today's closing momentum was decidedly negative thanks to Euro circus and continuing lack of confidence stateside. Also got back in GSVC at 18.35 after it sold off from 18.97 in the final hour.

Keeping it tight (updated 10 am)

3:04 am (Hawaii) Taking no chances, sold a small position in JPM at 24.24 (entry 23.57, +3%). Most gap-ups in the past couple of weeks get sold off after the opening bell. No good news for JPM over the weekend.

Update 9:34 am FAZ rose to 24.57 or so after I sold this morning (before the opening bell). No regrets though. Even with all the negative financial news, FAZ is not something that climbs to a peak and rests there. It's a pure trading vehicle, and through the day, there were three drastic pullbacks. It sat around 24.20 before making another major run higher in the past hour and is now at 24.65.

It's tempting to chase, but with the price up 4.6% for the day, I expect profit taking before the closing bell. Greece's politicians will meet again in the morning, and the flood of bad news out of JPMorgan will likely slow down some.

In addition, volume in FAZ is "only" 15M shares today compared to 20M on Friday. The run may be done for awhile, and once it slows, price will fall off a cliff, as always.

GSVC is fascinating. Now at 17.91 after touching 18.00 about an hour ago. It's up 4.7% today and up much more since bottoming at 16.25 on Friday (intraday) on a huge gap down. Facebook is moving a lot of the social stocks. LNKD +3%, SVVC +6.5%.

GSVC's volume is above average, but far below what it had on Friday (nearly 6M shares). It's another toy for the big boys, able to drop a dollar in a few minutes, leaving you and me as the retail bagholders instantly.

AAPL is testing its intraday low at 559.82. I still anticipate a drop to its Fibonacci retrace (range 396 to 644), which would be 546.

Update 10:00 am Considered going long GSVC even after a 4.1% gain today, but with GRPN announcing its earnings after the bell, too risky. Bad guidance and/or numbers would hit all the social stocks. I want to be in GSVC (made and lost on it the past two weeks), but this can wait until tomorrow. Or after GRPN's report.

Did get back into FAZ before the close at 24.76. The Greeks meet in the morning but my expectation is that nothing gets solved overnight. They'll drag it out just like everything else, accepting Euro help for decades and then complaining when their lifestyle is threatened.

AAPL traded down to 557.60 before the bell. Big money is off the field and watching from the VIP luxury boxes.

Friday flutter (updated)

2:53 am (Hawaii) AAPL has slid from 567 to 563+ in premarket. FAZ remains above 24, but there's been no move back to 24.50, which is where it was in afterhours trading yesterday. Less than an hour before the opening bell, 67% of my main watch list is red, albeit many of them don't trade at all before the bell.

Various scenarios could play out.

A. The market is long overdue for a bounce, and the JPMorgan debacle simply gives it a chance to capitulate (barf out remaining toxins) for the near term, bottom out and move higher

B. The market absorbs the JPMorgan-induced fears and refuses to crater, but also refuses to rally. A lingering fever with flu symptoms, so to speak

C. The machines are ordered to trade higher immediately, as has been the case in the mornings recently, before selling off in the afternoon.

C appears possible especially since it's a Friday and holding anything long over the weekend is not going to be a popular strategy.

There is, of course, a D. That would be a flush-out with the opening bell that stays down for the count through the entire day, and additional selling near the closing bell as traders run for the hills with Europe in flux and domestic financials unable (or unwilling) to guarantee that there will be no further JPMorgan-like screwups leading to losses in the beeeeeeeeeellions.

I'm not married to any of these or other possibilities. Must lock in and capture profits. Period.

Still long FAZ. For now.

Update 2:51 am Interesting that an NBC host is saying this morning that Dimon is still upset with the White House, yadayadayada ... seriously. After the environment that allowed Wall St to rake in huge profits and still get bailed out, that's ludicrous.

This can't end well for most of the banksters, though I doubt the bosses on top ever do time in lockdown.

Update 4:18 am out of FAZ at 23.48, a loss of 0.18 per. Small, small loss. But that's not relevant. What's relevant is I didn't pull the sell trigger while it sat there hovering around 24.12 after the opening bell. I was not prepared to see it go from 24.30+ just before the opening bell to 24.10+ at the bell. Plenty of sellers, should've anticipated that. 

But I contemplated adding more. I felt 24 was going to be a new floor instead of sticking to price discipline. So instead of a decent profit, it turned into a small (paper) profit. And when it couldn't hold 24, it was a nosedive to 23.60. I held through a couple of dips below 23.50 and finally got out. The indices are turning green, which means the whole JPMorgan mess didn't spur a major selloff, but may have completed (temporarily) the recent downturn. 

It's annoying to say the least. But JPM has held above 37, AAPL is back to 570 and FAS, which was below 90 earlier, is now at 93.20. 

FAZ is at 23.32 now, still up 2% for the day. But until more banks confess their derivative sins, buyers will keep pouring in. Maybe. 

So, it seems A and C are still in play. The sellers are out of product and buyers are waiting eagerly (A). Or the machines are buying up the market and will sell it off in the afternoon (C).

Nowhere does it seem possible the market heads lower, not if it can gulp down JPMorgan's mess and move up.

Update 11:15 am Indices were green for a majority of the day, then sold off toward the close. Nasdaq finished barely positive (+0.01%) while Dow was -34 (-0.27%) and S&P was -4.6 (-0.34%). Essentially, they were flat.

Business Insider reported that Fitch downgraded JPMorgan, which is interesting. Why Fitch and nobody else? How much fear is there of Dimon and his minions? People may despise the banksters, but he is what he is and he's usually fantastically good at it in a way that requires doses of finesse, outright thuggery and charisma. In other words, he would've been a hell of a mafia boss.

Mike Khow of Options Action suggested that ZNGA is one way to play the Facebook IPO. Said that Zynga is trying to steer its users to the company's website, to capture more ad revenue, etc. Still not touching that. Just like GSVC, which had a huge gap down to 16 today (from 18+) and rallied to 17+. It sold off on ... what? JPMorgan news? Are you kidding me?

Maybe I get a few shares of GSVC the next time it touches 16. But with FB so focused on its own game (yeah, Zuckerberg and his hoodie were a basic F-You to Wall St), it clearly didn't help FB plays like GSVC and SVVC much this week. They both were up big already this year, so buying GSVC at 18+ (I've done it) is an act of greed, to a degree.

But, the day is about done and the lesson is clearer than ever: Take profits quickly. As soon as I held FAZ more than overnight, for more than a few hours (or minutes), it loses footing and falls through the ice. During the latest run (in the past 24 hours), I've owned it twice and had two very small losses. Both times, I had decent paper profits.

Back in FAZ before the closing bell. We're only 1/3 of the way through May and there's no clear catalyst in sight for the rest of the month. If Europe's financial disaster gets a little fixed up over the weekend, I'm ready with some gunpowder to load up long. But Greece doesn't fix anything soon with that cast of characters.

Update 11:31 am AAPL ran from 561+ to 574+ this morning during the post-JPM rally. Then it sold off back to 566+. I still anticipate a pullback to 546 (Fibonacci retrace). Apple had a little iCloud leak/peak today, and there was talk on CNBC about the Apple TV, a supposedly leak from Foxconn in China.

Turning point Thursday (updated)

Or maybe it's no turning point at all. The market's been down for so many days. It hardly even matters if it's decidedly bearish for awhile. Technically, it's due for a bounce. That's why I was hesitant about going long FAZ (in other words, short financials) after hours yesterday.

It worked nice in a tiny way, jumping from 23.17 to 23.40 or so, but this morning, FAZ is at 22.64 and I got out. I'm not stubborn enough anymore to ride out something like this (3x ETF) in this kind of skittish, fickle environment. If the market rallies in the near term, maybe FAZ will be available below 22 or 21 at some point (again).

AAPL, which I bought at 567+ and sold at 561+ earlier in the week, is now at 574+ premarket. When it moves with massive volume, I'll be convinced (maybe) that it's going somewhere. For now, just flopping on the table.

FAZ as a hedge of sorts when long AAPL works fairly well. FAZ as a stand-alone, not so good.

Update 10:46 am The pros and cons of stop loss orders. I got a handful of FAZ before the bell at 22.88. It ran to 23.07. Tried to sell before the bell, didn't sell. After hours, I put in a stop-loss limit sell order at 22.93, but it sank to 22.55. I decided to wait it out since the selling (and previous buying) looked like big money was just playing the weak hands.

Then a few minutes ago, news got out that JPM possibly has $4.2 billion in legal losses. FAZ jumped to 23.20 and kept going (to 23.70). Totally forgot about that sell order. So in reality, instead of a nice, quick profit, I was out just barely above break even.

The thing with stop losses and limit orders is that it should be maneuvered before price action gets to that level, not at the same general time. Otherwise, it's time to cancel it and set a new order, or change it. Being distracted by work doesn't help, of course.

FAZ now at 23.68, not really interested in chasing here, but this is huge news.

Update 11:07 am Back in FAZ at 23.66, watching closely. CNBC says JPM will talk at 5:30 Eastern. Fast Money boys not mincing words, tomorrow will likely be a rough day for financials. Adami believes it's not just JPMorgan that has a "whale" or prop trading disaster on hand.

FAZ now at 23.96.

Update 11:19 am Willing to see how this shakes out tomorrow. JPM's not saying anything that can reverse the bad momentum. FAZ now at 24.25 and gaining a new wave of momo.

Simple as ABC?

1:17 am (Hawaii) I like my little charts and trendlines and megaphone and pennant patterns. I like candlesticks too, however reliable (or not) they may be. But it's fun now and then to visit American Bulls for their view of stocks. Here's what they say through their candlestick analysis as of Wed Oct 19:

AAPL - Sell confirmed
AGQ - Sell confirmed
DGP - Sell confirmed
SPY - Sell-if...
QQQ - Sell-if...
QID - Buy confirmed
FCX - Wait
EUO - Buy confirmed

Isn't this interesting? All the indicators (at least in my book) of a bullish short-term view are negative, from AAPL to precious metals to bear indice ETFs. So how about financials?

FAS - Buy-if...
FAZ - Buy-if...

So that confirms the confusion and hesitancy of not just me, but of plenty of traders and investors regarding the banks. No surprise that the bank stocks remain choppy, range-bound and largely untouched lately. Or is that really the case?

BAC - Buy-if...
AIG - Sell-if...
C - Sell-if...
GS - Sell-if...
JPM - Buy-if...
MS -  Sell-if...

Less positive than I expected. I don't like the banksters, but even this is more bearish than I would've guessed just by the way they've held up through the past week with JPM and GS announcing far less stellar earnings than expected.

NBG - Wait
IRE - Wait
DB - Buy-if...

There are more Eurozone banks but that's enough. As I fall asleep for the night (and premarket opens in 30 minutes), I'm content to stay the heck out for today. The most bullish thing that could happen is Merkel and Sarkozy release the details of their grand plan to save the European monetary system. That would take the US market and precious metals higher since printing all that fiat money will be nothing but a short-term fix. Then the junkie becomes more dependent on the juice (fiat printing).

Thursday cinema & library (updated 1000 pm HST)

Orpheum Theater, Memphis, Tennessee

Blogs
Golden Truth: Legalized fraud (Oct 13)

Dan Norcini: Gold still being held by $1680 (Oct 13)

Le Fly: Flirting with disaster (Oct 13)

SGS: Trade on, trade off (Oct 13)

Zero Hedge: Foreigners dump $74 billion in Treasurys in 6 consecutive weeks (Oct 13)
Le Fly: Coming soon: Horrific destruction (Oct 13)

Zero Hedge: 'Book-cooking' index soards to all-time highs (Oct 13)

Zero Hedge: So much for EURUSD breaking 1.38: S&P cuts Spain to AA- from AA (Oct 13)
Rajun Cajun: Winner winner chicken dinner (Oct 13)

Zero Hedge: Fitch downgrades UBS, puts MS, BAC, GS on watch negative (Oct 13)
Zero Hedge: Google surges afterhours on big top and bottom line beat (Oct 13)

Le Fly: Tired bull (Oct 13)

Turd Ferguson: Deflating inflation (Oct 13)

Zero Hedge: David Rosenberg: Action is always at margin... and margin is not pretty (Oct 13)

Zero Hedge: Work in banking? Find out if you will be laid off (Oct 13)

Zero Hedge: Van Rompuy, Barroso announce 440-billion Euro EFSF fully functional (Oct 13)

James Altucher: 7 things happen to you when you are completely honest (Oct 12)

Golden Truth: So far 'Operation Twist' is colossal failure (Oct 12)

Doug Kass: 10 questions for the bears (Oct 10)
Doug Kass: 10 questions for the bulls (Oct 10)
James Altucher: I lost $5 million this morning (Sept 24)

Vlogs
(new) Young Turks: CNN's Burnett: Root for the banks! (Oct 13)

Keiser Report: Dog & Pony Show (Oct 13)

StormCloudsGathering: The chain of obedience (Oct 13)

Standard Rebellion: How many more occupations? (Oct 13)

Luke Rudkowski: Michael Moore, Take 2 (Oct 13)

theeastwatch: N. Korea too?!? WTF (Oct 13)

Realist News: Why NOT to play the paper silver SLV or gold GLD game (Oct 13)

GuildF40: Slovakia agrees to expand European bailout fund (Oct 13)

Realist News: JPMorgan's fraud accounting practices produces great 3rd quarter (Oct 13)

Realist News: Is Mexico's 92 tons of gold gone? (Oct 13)

SilverGuild: Gold as money across the US (Oct 13)

ScrapGoldBusiness: Silver shortage - Perth Mint out of silver? (Oct 13)

Alexiscom1: No gold in Fort Knox, CFTC limits, Alessio Rastani on GS (Oct 13)

Chris Duane (Silver Shield): The ultimate exit strategy (Oct 12)

Jim Comiskey: Daily market insights - metals futures (Oct 12)

NewAmericaNow: I am not moving (Oct 10)

Audio

Peter Schiff: Guest Andrew Napolitano (Oct 13)

Chris Martenson: Guest Rob Hopkins (Oct 13)

ScrapGoldBusiness: This was someone's home (Oct 13)

Mike Broomhead: Guest Gerald Celente (Oct 10)

Mainstream

CNBC: European stocks to open flat, Spain rating cut (Oct 14)

Financial Times: ECB did all it could to stem crisis: Trichet (Oct 14)

Bloomberg: Hairy crab as sign of China food inflation (Oct 14)

(video) (new) Sky News: Nigel Farage and Sharon Bowles (Oct 13)

(video) (new) RT: Nigel Farage on European bailouts (Oct 13)

(video) (new) Euronews: Greek general strike to be extended (Oct 13)

(new) Bloomberg: Spain credit rating cut by S&P on weak outlook (Oct 13)
(new) Bloomberg: Greek investors brace for bigger loss to stop rot (Oct 13)
(new) Bloomberg: Buffett's son defends Occupy Wall St protests (Oct 13)

Keith Olbermann: Americans support of Occupy Wall St movement growing (Oct 13)

Reuters: Gold flat, Spain downgrade may weigh (Oct 13)

CNBC: Euro zone crisis set to dominate G20 meeting in Paris (Oct 13)

CNBC: JPMorgan investment bank avoids crisis, for now (Oct 13)

Reuters: JPMorgan quarterly profit falls, will cut 1,000 jobs (Oct 13)

Reuters: 'Lehman moment' could be trigger for US economic renewal (Oct 13)

Bloomberg: Google results, business outlook, Apple, Zynga (Oct 13)

CNBC: How Finland could bring Euro's demise (Oct 13)

(video) (new) UKIP Media: Nigel Farage: Slovak vote no to bailout (Oct 12)

BNN: Apple co-founder buys gold (Oct 12)

Live
(new) Bloomberg TV

If you're not lying . . .

2:11 pm (Hawaii) . . . you're not trying hard enough. Right? How else to explain how bankster stocks ripped higher today, other than non-news out of Europe and vast amounts of cash entering the market despite an obvious recession on both sides of the pond. (I realize that stock markets have risen higher during some recessions.)

Here's a look at FAS (12.70) and FAZ (50.98), which I traded today with mixed results. Had I left my shares of FAS alone (entry points 12.31 and 12.42), today's profit would've been nice. But I left FAS too early on both occasions, and the overnight trade on FAZ didn't work, of course, as financials soared. NBG +10.6%, AIG +6.2%, DB +5.8%, C +4.9%, BBVA +4.3%, BAC +3.3%, RBS (+3.1%), HBC (+2.9%), MC (+2.9%), JPM (+2.8%), GS (+2.5%), IRE (+1.2%), STD +0.01%. (My Debt Spiral list is not showing SCGLY price.)

FAS up 7.3% and FAZ down 7%. Getting out of FAZ at 53+ with a small loss was wise in hindsight, but I underestimated the strength of the banksters. They not only rallied, but they pushed FAZ below its recent intraday low of 50.10 (Aug 31). The next support level, if there is such a thing, might be at 46.60, followed by 43.20, 41.40, 38.85 and 37.05. Or has FAZ actually held here at 50? Hmmmm...

FAZ daily: Falling off a cliff?

On the other end, FAS has immense space above. I speculated yesterday that without any anti-bankster news in Europe, it could go to 14+ shortly. But above 15-16, the potential is huge. The last time QE flushed through the financials, stock prices exploded. Nobody gave a rat's ass about whether the fiat paper was backed by real money or not. The same is likely to happen here and now with Great Britain and other Eurozone nations ready and wiling to print monopoly money ad infinitum. For the first time in three days, I did not open a small, late-day position in FAZ due to the illogical nature of the market. But I've also longed to have shares at 55 and 50 or even 42 and 44, so the opportunity is here.

Barring overnight catastrophe in Europe, FAZ, which dipped as low as 48.55 today, could easily kiss the lower levels. But the lower FAZ goes, the sharper the snapback on the next round of Euro crisis. It'll happen at some point regardless of what Merkel and Sarkozy can patch together in the short term. Maybe I'll just wait for 37. No doubt the banksters and politicians can lie for much longer, but it's like holding your breath; sooner or later, someone's got to breathe. Everyone's got to breathe, and the ponzi scheme will be dismantled.

FAS 1-minute and daily charts

Did I think 13.00 could happen? Yes. Did I chicken out and bail below 12.50? Yes.

The daily looks happy with today's gap up, strong volume and a clear route to 14 and 15.

FAZ 1-minute and daily charts

Pure fugliness in the 1-minute though the late-day rally intrigues.

The daily had been pure megaphone action, totally bullish.

This is the first extended downtrend in months. Not good.

FAZ daily

End of pennant action? 

FAZ daily

A mean, steep, ugly downtrend with no end in sight.

Buy fugly? Not today. I'm all cash for now. 

Since August, no downtrend has lasted more than 7 days.

Update 3:13 pm JPMorgan reports tomorrow. Is there any doubt they'll announce that, once again, they made money EVERY DAY of the past quarter? Those effers, love 'em or hate 'em, own their shit and they rule most of the world. Betting against them, at least overnight, would be crrrraaaaaaaaaazzy. 

Update 3:26 pm I expect a gap up in FAS, JPM and most bankster stocks in the morning, followed by some profit-taking off this huge three-day run by financials. Why didn't I stay long? Europe headline risk. And it's not easy to gauge this rumor about JPM and MS pulling out of the banking business. My take is that this is bullish for both, but I'm not putting money where my mouth is on this. Once JPM's earnings report is out (7 am ET), I expect selling at some point late in premarket trading or just after the opening bell. 

JPM, the crown prince of banksters, leading off financial earnings reports? That's like Babe Ruth leading off for the '27 Yankees instead of hitting cleanup. These things don't happen by chance. There's a reason why JPM is leading off when it could easily go lower in the lineup to boost finnies' momentum. 

This runup in bankster stocks and FAS is beginning to smell a bit fishy here, but a few squirts of their magical liars cologne should please traders for awhile longer. 

No coincidence at all

5:38 am (Hawaii) FAZ is in a pennant formation on the 1-minute chart. Or was. Since JPM's Jamie Dimon started chatting with CNBC, FAZ has broken the narrowing range and is pushing hard on 71 again. Funny how that happens. In fact, the lower low of 69 before this move up wasn't breached as FAZ stopped at 70, then climbing up. Dimon talking about banks not really taking billions in bailouts to make money, yadayada.

If FAZ makes a second higher low in a row, I'm climbing back on board.

Update 5:48 am No higher low. Just a tight trading range and DGP firing out to 65.52.

Spot silver shooting up, now 39.05. Gold? 1788.50. A new high. Can it close above Jim Sinclair's golden angel level of 1764? There's a chance. He did say that price would be unleashed above that level.

Update 5:59 am Well, well. Dimon is still on the air at CNBC's request, and he jokes that it's about as good as paying for air time. FAZ is selling off gradually, now at 69. Meanwhile, gold is at an all-time high again at 1793. Yeah, GOLD, the metal that JPM/CME mafia officially went long on as of Friday, then again with a new target of $2,500 on Monday.

No dummies over there at JPM, clearly. But they've let silver off the leash just a bit. Brother Turd Ferguson forecast 44 for spot price of silver, just based on pattern recognition. It has run in the past half-hour just like gold. AGQ went from 196 to 205, now back at 201 (+8.5%). Entering here is fraught with risk. It's something else, though, to finally see silver, silver ETFs and miners rallying on a -400 point day for the Dow. Same with gold miners. XG was down for much of the morning, but is now up 2.9%. I'm sitting on my shares.

DGP still up 5.7% at 64.85.

Are you keeeding mee?

FAZ vs. BAC

DGP vs. AGQ vs. JPM

1:19 pm (Hawaii) FAZ keeps swelling larger and larger, now at 81.74 in thin afterhours trading. This is dangerous stuff here. The slightest move from the FOMC tomorrow and it's off to the races. The snapback rally is coming, however brief it may be, and I don't want to be standing in the way. So, I say no to FAZ.

Same with QID, SCO ... it takes some nimble feet and a pliant brain to reverse course when the market changes direction. And it will change. Nothing goes up or down forever. So, contrary to my views about the banksters, it's probably too late to ride the FAZ train. Contrary to my views about precious metals, it's not prime time to acquire more paper or physical gold — thought it wouldn't be horrible to get some either.

If and when whispers of QE3 hit the mainstream, FAS will run. So will AGQ. Probably EXK, too. Gold will take a break and rest up. But gold miners will likely run, as they usually do with equities. Hedge funds just might scale in. I am conflicted about holding XG through a rally and beyond. Once a rally dries up, we'll get more liquidation from the market by hedge funds, and they'll dump miners before they dump anything else.

If Bernanke says nothing tomorrow, there will be pandemonium in the market. A race to get out before zero, which is preposterous, but emotion will rule. It still won't be enough to save us from the HFTs unless you were prudent and prepared for shit hitting the fan. Who knew, though, that S&P would trounce US credit/debt twice since last Friday? I knew it could happen, just not so soon. So did a lot of people. It's accurate, no doubt. Just stunning in its timing. And I should've kept that small position in FAZ at 45 and 62. I knew it would go to 100 sooner or later, but never did I imagine it could happen within days.

Update 1:38 pm (Hawaii) The charts above include BAC, which refuses to raise capital (after taking billions in TARP), and JPM, which has come out of nowhere to declare great bullishness for gold in the past two sessions. I'd still rather be long FAZ and DGP (and physical gold) than ever own a share of BAC or JPM. (I'm actually long DGP, but not FAZ.)

Today's Debt Spiral list:
FAZ 81.85 (+31.2%)
IRE 1.16 (-5.7%)
GS 116.03 (-7.3%)
STD 8.66 (-7.8%)
BBVA 8.65 (-9.0%)
JPM 33.98 (-9.6%)
AIG 22.55 (-10.2%)
NBG 1.03 (-11.2%)
DB 42.12 (-12.6%)
C 27.91 (-16.5%)
SCGLY 6.70 (-21.8%)
BAC 6.39 (-21.8%)
FAS 12.16 (-29.4%)
* After hours prices

DJ 10,809.85 -634.76 (-5.55%)
Nas 2,357.59 -174.72 (-6.9%)
S&P 500 1,119.46 -79.92 (-6.66%)
10-yr note 2.34% -0.219 (-8.56%)

Banksters Paradise

4:51 am (Hawaii) Got up at 2 am, but stayed in bed, got more zzz's and just got up again now. My Metals watch list was majority green, but my Regular watch list is 68% green, 31% red. My Debt Spiral list is 82% green with BBVA (+6.9%), NBG (+5.4%), STD (+5.1%) leading the way. When Euro banks are up like this in the midst of a potentially cataclysmic destruction, there must've been a miraculous save.

Guess it's time to turn on the TV.

GS (+1.6%), JPM (+1.6%), C (+1.4%) and BAC (+0.9%) are also up. Happy times and Friday night parties in store for the banksters.

Other big gainers are AZK (+4.7%), NGD (+3.3%), PSUN (+2.8%), CHGS (+2.5%), LULU (+2.2%), MWW (+2.1%), HAIN (+1.8%). In other words, the miners and corporations that are not humongous are getting a big lift.

Crude oil, per Obama's command, is down. That means SCO is up (+3.1%). As for more metal plays, PSAU (+2.6%), NUGT (+2.3%), GOLD (+2.2%), GDXJ (+2.2%), EXK (+1.9%), AG (+1.9%), CU (+1.8%). Many others are above +1%. AGQ is up 1%.

EXK looks tempting after a long decline. XG is flat at 11.24 while most gold plays are up.

Getting hit hard are GPL (-3.5%), which had risen big while the other silver miners were ambushed in the past week. Also down are DUST, MCP, DZZ, ZSL (-1.2%), GLL.

AAPL is down 0.5% to 323.51, but is off its low of 320.46.

Interesting morning. Indices: Dow +95 (+0.8%), Nas +9.50 (+0.3%), S&P +9.81 (+0.8%).

Need to look at volume. Regardless of today's gains, they are temporary until all of the PIIGS commit to balancing their budgets. This is, however spun, another way to mask the inevitable pain of austerity, just another stall tactic that strategic traders are playing for the morning.

Reuters: Wall St rises on hint of Greece plan, data helps (June 17 2011)
Financial Times: Germany retreats over deal for Greece (June 17 2011)

Thesis and substance

6:41 am (Hawaii) It helps tremendously to back up a thesis with some commitment, if just a partial position. I seem to lack the cajones to do this, apparently. FAZ is one of the preferred vehicles of choice in this June swoon. Come on, didn't you think most traders would run from the possibility of no QE3? I did. But I bought FAZ at near a recent high, then sold yesterday at a loss. The one day in the past week it drops, and I sell. (Last week, I bought at 46.40 and sold at a small loss, too.)

So much for thesis. Finnies? GS (-0.3%), BAC (-1.5%), JPM (-1.7%), C (-1.8%), NBG (-2.8%), STD (-3.3%), IRE (-6.2%). They'll slide and more banks will close, but it's all just a path to consolidation. What the big money lacks in breadth and depth, it will hold even more in the way of pure power. If things get to that dire scenario — hyperinflation, no cash in the ATMs, etc. — it'll still be important to be self-sufficient. But even if things don't get extreme, I still don't trust them banksters. They could jack up service fees far beyond what they do today, always to the brink of pissing the public off, but never too far. They need to keep us borderline solvent, the better to bleed us to death over time. That's why I'm figuring out how much actual fiat, physical metal, food and ammo to have on hand before things get to that point. It's a necessity I don't like.

I just woke up to find FAZ at 51.63, which would've been a paper profit of about $475 or so. Pretty decent. But since I lack commitment in my thesis, it's just chatter. 21% of my Metals list is green. 79% red. This was expected. Yesterday's dead-cat bounce came on horribly low volume. Today's volume is stronger; we're only halfway through and most stocks/etfs are close or above yesterday's totals.

MCP, which is up 2.8%, has strong volume today. XG is up 3.2%. But most of the green gainers on the Metals list are bear plays. ZSL (+5.1%), DUST (+2.9%), FSG (+2.1%), DZZ (+1.4%).

Still 90% cash with a small position in DGP. If Spot Gold (1535) and Silver (36.66) can't regain today's smallish decline, I'll look to add physical below 1520 and 34. Summer and gold have not been a good combination for the past two years, but conditions are exacerbated this time. Picking my spots.