Thursday cinema & library (updated Fri 100 am HST)

Blogs
(new) RT: Are we headed for another Lehman moment in Europe? (Oct 20)

(new) Zero Hedge: Bill Gross was right - Fed's Tarullo calls for restart of MBS monetization (Oct 20)
Zero Hedge: Merkel cancels Friday govt statement on EFSF (Oct 20)
Reggie Middleton: This bank is much worse than the rest (Oct 20)
Le Fly: There will be rumors of rumors (Oct 20)
Le Fly: All eyes on Italy (Oct 20)
Turd Ferguson: Chart review (Oct 20)
Dan Norcini: Another down day for metals (Oct 20)
SGS: Go take a shot of something before reading this (Oct 19)

Vlogs

(new) endlessmountain: Nonsense - Silver, dollar index, TLT bonds (Oct 21)

(new) MoneyBags73: Massive conflicts of interest at Fed (Oct 20)

(new) Jim Comiskey: Daily market insights - metals futures (Oct 20)

(new) streetmoney21: Bank of America - A lot more reason to get your money out NOW (Oct 20)

(new) Peter Schiff: Listener questions (Oct 20)
RT: Athens chaos: Cop-protester crossfire (Oct 20)
Keiser Report: Live and let fail (Oct 20)

ScrapGoldBusiness: Perth Mint update (Oct 20)

J.S. Kim: Understanding banker manipulation of gold and silver (Oct 20)

bullorbearreport: The revolution has begun! (Oct 20)

RT: 'Killing Gaddafi easy cover-up for West deals' (Oct 20)

Audio
(new) Peter Schiff Radio (Oct 20)

Mainstream

image: Roy De Young

(new) Bloomberg: EU considers wielding $1.3T to break debt crisis impasse (Oct 20)

Euronews: International leaders react to Gaddafi's death (Oct 20)

Daily Mail: 'What did I ever do to you?': What Gaddafi said as he begged for his life (Oct 20)

CBS: Why Steve Jobs refused a potentially life-saving surgery (Oct 20)

Reuters: US equities selloff seen likely in near term (Oct 20)

Reuters: Citigroup's $285M settlement may get 2nd look (Oct 20)

Dylan Ratigan: Audit exposes secrets, corruption of Fed (Oct 19)

Christopher Whalen: Is Bank of America preparing for a Chapter 11? (Oct 19)

Metal bling

999silverhk: Perth Mint - Year of Dragon silver coin (Oct 20)

Eye candy

Street Low: Impala '64 clowning with Desire (Oct 15)

Tuesday cinema & library (updated 7 pm HST)

Sinclair Library, University of Hawaii at Manoa (1956)

Blogs

King World News: Jim Rickards - Chavez's gold leased to JP Morgan, Barclays, HSBC? (Aug 23)

King World News: Robin Griffiths - Important price targets to look for in gold (Aug 23)

Le Fly: Should the market continue lower (Aug 23)

Chriss W. Street: California admits to almost $1 trillion in pension obligations (Aug 23)

Le Fly: 70% in (Aug 23)

Le Fly: Inventories stupid (Aug 23)

Le Fly: Nervous Nellies (Aug 23)

Turd Ferguson: (pm) It's good to be Turd (Aug 23)

Zero Hedge: Shanghai hikes gold margins for 2nd time in a month (Aug 23)

Zero Hedge: Gold reaches $1,913.50 - UBS says $50 silver in 3 months (Aug 23)

Turd Ferguson: (pm) On shaky ground (Aug 23)

> Charts Gold Dec 2-hour | Silver Sept 2-hour

Reggie Middleton: Proof of another big US bank collapse? Investment banks rated 'buy' by other banks(Aug 23)

Jim Quinn: Keynesian solutions, after total failure, try, try again (Aug 23)

Zero Hedge: Some follow-up questions (and recommendations) for Moynihan (Aug 23)

MoneyBags73: Gold hits record $1900, google 'gold terrible investment' and get Dave Ramsey (Aug 23)

(new) King World News: Peter Schiff: When silver breaks $50, shorts propel it to $75, $100 (Aug 22)

Reuters: How to get $12 billion of gold to Venezuela (Aug 22)

Turd Ferguson: So, what's next? (Aug 22)

Turd Ferguson: Relief (Aug 22)

SGS: The sheep, the mentality, the game, the warning (Aug 22)

Drew Voros: Stephen Leeb lays out case for silver $100/oz (Aug 18)

> Leeb cites Chinese industrial demand

Vlogs

(new) BrotherJohnF: Silver update - Chinese chess (Aug 23)

Time Monk Radio: Jim Rogers, Turd Ferguson (part 1) (part 2) (part 3) (part 4) (part 5) (Aug 23)

Max Keiser: Rick Ackerman interview (Aug 23)

streetmoney21: From StreetMoney21 to Texas (Aug 23)

James Turk: James McShirley interview at GATA (Aug 23)

H1INC: Daytraders love welfare (Aug 23)

GuildF40: Libya 4.6 million oz of gold (Aug 23)

Endless Mountain: The Silver Log (Aug 23)

Keiser Report: Bankers & Aliens (Aug 23)

streetmoney21: Pressure from every angle (Aug 22)

1beinki: V for Vendetta Crash the banksters buy silver (Aug 22)

H1INC: Too big not to fail (Aug 22)

Reggie Middleton: Bamboozled by the banking industry: Are the chickens coming home to roost? (Oct 19 2010)

Blog commentary

Audio

(new) cfini72: QE3: Reserves and reverse repo agreements (Aug 23)

King World News: Jim Rickards (Aug 23)

Reports

(new) CNBC: Fed could anger creditors, Tea Party with QE3 (Aug 24)

(new) Bloomberg: European bank job 'bloodbath' surpasses 40,000 (Aug 23)

(new) Bloomberg: Gold rallies after dropping from record (Aug 23)

(new) CNBC: Nasdaq could drop to 2000 on Jackson Hole disappointment (Aug 23)

(new) CNBC: Is the pullback in gold a buying opportunity? (Aug 23)

(new) CNBC: Analyst: Apple is best tech growth stock (Aug 23)

> Rumor mill

Reuters: Shanghai Gold Exchange lifts margins for gold forwards (Aug 23)

(new) CNBC: Some gold bulls say time to cash in, rally overdone (Aug 23)

(new) CNBC: Size of gold 'bubble' now an 'absurdity': Analyst (Aug 23)

(new) CNBC: Doug Kass: Everyone is too bearish! (Aug 23)

(new) CNBC: Dead cat bounce or beginning of something? (Aug 23)

(new) CNBC: Hedgies worry retail investors about to freak out (Aug 22)

(new) CNBC: Dennis Gartman: Libya oil won't be online for 18 months (Aug 22)

(new) Peter Boockvar: Even if Fed moves on third round of stimulus, markets won't take off (Aug 22)

(new) CNBC: Options action: Disney (Aug 22)

(new) CNBC: Gold demand to increase despite temporary blip: World Gold Council (Aug 18)

(new) Bloomberg: Fed begins draining reserves with reverse repos agreements (Aug 17)

Video

(new) Bloomberg: Edel Tully: Gold prices may reach $2,100 (Aug 23)

(new) Bloomberg: Mark O'Byrne: Gold prices may be poised for 'parabolic' rise (Aug 18)

(new) Bloomberg: David Stroud: Forecast for gold, silver prices (Aug 4)

(new) Bloomberg: Ben Westmore: Gold may fall to $1,442 by year end (July 22)

(new) Bloomberg: Ronald Stoeferle: Gold price to increase to $2300 (July 4)

(new) Bloomberg: Frank Terranova: Gold price will increase in 2011 (June 30)

Metal bling

The last schwing?

8:09 am (Hawaii) While more and more analysts show up on CNBC talking (my mute is ON) about how bullish banks are, I have to wonder how much they're being paid by their firms to say such ridiculous things. OK, maybe they're bullish on regional, community banks, which makes some sense. But are their firms so desperate to recoup losses in bank stocks that they'll send someone to the network to jabber about something that almost all Americans hate?

I should be relieved. Too much gold bull/bear talk would probably be an indication of a jumping the shark moment in the next scene, not to mention the bloggers and columnists who keep preaching that gold is about to roll over. I'm not inclined to say they are wrong or right about the near term. I just don't view gold as a temporary issue.

Indices are up close to 1% each while gold is just off a new all-time high at 1890. Silver holding some of today's gain at 43.62. The silver miners are tearing higher, led by EXK (9.7%) at 11.38, up a buck plus on strong volume. GSS, PAAS, NUGT, AG, SIL, GDXJ, SVM, SLW, UGL all up at least 4.5%. A robust day for the miners, which goes with the pattern of miners trading up with the indices. I haven't read a whole lot yet today, but before I hit the sack at around 3:30 am (Hawaii), news was out about rebels taking over the capital city of Libya, which spurred a decline crude oil price.

I've been observing AGQ for some time, especially since it was in the 218-220 range last week. An explosion in silver back to 49-50 would probably take AGQ, currently 250.54 (+3.7%) back to its high of 382. Again, that's a gain of 74% from the 220 level while silver goes up 25% (from 40 to 50). That's IF price action follows the same pattern. I've always felt that playing AGQ from 220 to 382 would be the smarter, more logical route to take. However, what if silver price hits 50, then 51 and 52 in rapid-fire fashion, then jets off?

This happened with gold in the past week or so. Once it broke through resistance, kabloooooeey! It could happen with silver, partly because of all the margin requirement hikes back in May that flushed out the weak hands. There may be several margin hikes coming to gold in addition to the one implemented two weeks ago, but that means NOTHING to central banks and the horde of retail peons like myself who are not out to get rich (yeah okay that would cool with me), but are just SICK OF LOSING TO INFLATION. A small-timer like me can't stand it, but imagine a big central bank seeing their collection of US fiat currency shrivel up year after year. They lose billions on that position, so might as well dump it and buy gold.

The economy and politics of everything is intertwined with banksters and it's all a mess beyond imagination. That's why gold works. People understand the inverse relationship between fiat printing presses and the limited supply of precious metals. More so, they understand the lasting power of gold versus the corruption and inevitable decline of peabrained decision makers who are desperate to print more paper currency.

I still expect a bull run with the next QE and I'm ready to ride that wave. (Note: We're 4 days away from Jackson Hole.) But I keep my eyes on reality and that means stacking physical when I can and knowing that any bullish day has more to do with HFT/algo machines than real buying of stocks.

Chasing AGQ or any PM play right now is unnecessary. The dip was earlier today when gold fell back towards 1860 and silver dripped below 43. AGQ came down to 244. I was sound asleep and don't regret it. Eliminating temptation (high end of a range) is a good thing. The real test will be stepping in for more DGP or starting a position in AGQ when the next dip comes. Buying low is not as easy as it may sound, not for me. But it's a test that can be won.

The battle against human nature — chasing momentum — is a tough one. Paying low prices for a valuable asset separates the great traders from the rest of us.

FAZ btw is up 1.4% while most bankster stocks are in the red, with BAC at the bottom. Not a good start to the week for the Keynesians.

Update 8:41 am Not sure how Libya falls and crude oil goes up, now 84.25 (+2.4%). Not that I want to buy UCO or SCO. Just a bit perplexing.

Update 8:48 am Must read: Brother Turd Ferguson's morning analysis. Another takedown attempt by the CME mafia might send spot silver to 41.50. He's a buyer there.

Weekend Theater & Library (updated)

 

Sanskrit Theater, Bengal, India

Video
Minyanville: 10 things you never knew about gold (June 13 2011)
bigdad06: Bankster Nation (June 24 2011)
George4title: Raising children during the Great Recession: Get Faith (June 24 2011)
CNBC: Apmex CEO Michael Haynes: Why central banks are buying gold (June 24 2011)
CNBC: Geithner interview, re: debt reduction negotiations (June 24 2011)
CNBC: Why isn't lower oil lifting stocks (June 24 2011)

Sites/Blogs
(new) Turd Ferguson: Saturday Stuff (June 25 2011)
• His chart analysis is as good as any
(new) chessNwine: 5 possible breakout stocks (June 25 2011)

(new) Le Fly: Bullish on UCO, EXK (June 24 2011)

(new) Scott Blier: But I had no idea ... (June 24 2011)
(new) Dan Norcini: CCI signaling deflationary forces are in ascendancy (June 24 2011)

(new) Scott Strzelczyk: Our Wily Coyote moment has arrived (June 23 2011)

(new) James West: Dizzying new heights of global criminal enterprise (June 23 2011)

(new) Longrangesilver: Living through a currency devaluation (June 20 2011)

Ynetnews: Japan: Fukushima drone loses control, lands on reactor building (June 24 2011)
Don't Tread On Me: The Silver Stealers (June 24 2011)
CTV News: House refuses to give Obama power to continue in Libya (June 24 2011)
CNN: Ron Paul worries Fort Knox gold is gone (June 24 2011)
Gonzalo Lira: IBG-YBG: Owning vs. Managing — Democracy vs. Kleptocracy (June 24 2011)
Apple Investor: Zynga now owns four of largest Facebook games (June 24 2011)
CNet: Ten ways to work smarter on your iPad (June 24 2011)
Reuters: Money mangers up net length in gold, silver-CTFC (June 24 2011)

Apple Insider: Apple's second beta of iOS 5.0 enables wireless sync with iTunes 10.5 beta 2 (June 24 2011)

Charles Hugh Smith: Why the Eurozone and Euro are both doomed (June 23 2011)

From Pimco: "IEA Action yesterday continues policymaker efforts to cap bad inflation (silver margins etc.) Nonetheless – higher inflation ahead." (June 23 2011)

Mohamed El-Erian: On governments as portfolio managers (June 23 2011)
Gonzalo Lira: If Greece defaults, what happens to Portugal and Ireland — and Spain? (June 20 2011)

Helicopter speaks, silver rises

9:00 am (Hawaii) AGQ up from 172 to 174 since Helicopter Ben's speech 30 minutes ago. Indices rising from previous highs of the day. Bernanke talked about possible rising interest rates and dealing with the crisis, but nothing detailed came out. COPX up 2.8% on the neutral news out of China (inflation rate is in line).

9:26 am (Hawaii) Indices coming off their highs in the past 15 minutes and so are silver plays. Selloff into the bell? I'm not touching any of this. 90% cash and just fine with that.

(video) Sen. McKinney: 'Libya war driven by oil, Israel, logistics' (June 14 2011)
Idaho Statesman: Chinese company eyes Boise (June 14 2011)
Zero Hedge: Bill Gross warns QE3 coming in form of 'Operation Twist' (June 14 2011)
Zero Hedge: Japanese 'consumers' buy cash safes to hid trillions (June 14 2011)
Bloomberg: Strongbox sales soar as cash hoarding to limit Japan rebound (June 14 2011)
Zero Hedge: End of POMO countdown: $8 bil down, $51 bil to go (June 14 2011)

Weekend library

Have a safe, joyous Good Friday weekend!

Al-Jazeera: Obama approves drone strikes in Libya (Apr 21 2011)
Trader Dan: A brief consideration of silver's open interest (Apr 21 2011)
Michael Maloney/Resource Investor: How the Hunt brothers capped gold... yes, gold (Apr 18 2011)
(Video) Fast Money: Spot silver hits 31-year high (Apr 21 2011)
Afraid to Trade: Before calling a top in silver (Apr 21 2011)
Carl Swenlin/Financial Sense: Silver still soaring (Apr 21 2011)
Eric Sprott/Zero Hedge: Expect gold to silver ratio to hit single digits (Apr 21 2011)
Jesse's Cafe Americain: What I think the fluctuations and trends in the Comex silver inventory mean (Apr 21 2011)
(Video) Peter Schiff: Bearish on the dollar, bullish on PMs, oil (Apr 7 2011)

Jim Rogers (Apr 18 2011)

SLV-miners-ultra short ETF (ZSL) 6-month chart

Noise in the Library

Monday bull party

(11:30 am, Hawaii) Talk about complete melt-up. At one point, when I wasn't sleeping through the session, my watch list was 83% green. That's basically bullish to the extreme since the other 17% are mostly bear plays.

DJIA +1.5%, Nasdaq +1.8%, S&P 500 +1.5%.

Volume wasn't great in AAPL (14.7M), but the 2.7% run from 330.67 (Friday) to 339.73 (afterhours today) is incredible. The 100-day moving average was tested three days in a row (Wed/Thur/Fri) before bouncing today. Will the 50-day MA (346+) prove to be a ceiling?

Everything with a pulse move up, from BIDU (+3%) and GOOG (+2.6%) to Japan (EWJ (+2.2%). The yen softened; FXY slightly down (-0.4%).

LVS gained 6.4%, while other recent gainers like OPEN (+2.4%) and HAIN (+2.5%) rose.

Precious metals roared. SLW gained 5.9% to 42.25 (afterhours). EXK +5.1% to 9.62, PAAS +3.6%, PHY +2.4%, SLV +3.2%. NGD +3.4% and GLD +0.7%. Great day for the metal bugs. SLW and EXK ranked second and third on my list of gainers.

WNR, Le Fly's favorite oil refiner play, gained 4.4% to 21.59. UCO gained 1.1% (53.33).

Big losers were TVIX (-15.4%, 44.85), VXX (-7.5%, 32.70), TZA (-7.1%), EDZ (-5.1%) and QID (-3.6%). PSUN also sold off again, down 1.9% to 3.62. C also fell 1.6% to 4.43. Interestingly, X dropped 0.6%.

I'm content to stay in cash here until the puzzle is solved. Which is probably never going to happen. AAPL is my vehicle of preference, and if the runway clears for a flight to new highs, I'll get a ticket. Until then, this is a range-bound titan, from 326 to 360, and there is money to be made in that space. Hat's off to those who bought at 330 on Friday.

Bloomberg: Tokyo Electric says Fukushima fuel rods damaged, leak to sea (Mar 21 2011)
Reuters: Oil lifted by Mideast unrest, Libya conflict (Mar 21 2011)
Bloomberg: Japan futures, nuclear stocks advance as reactor crisis eases (Mar 21 2011)
Business Times: AT&T's big deal lifts Wall St (Mar 21 2011)
AP: Developments in Japan's disasters, nuclear crisis (Mar 21 2011)
Business Insider: What about the Plutonium MOX? (Mar 21 2011)
The Guardian: Google accuses China of interfering with Gmail system (Mar 21 2011)

Weekend reading

This is tonight's supermoon.

(Seattle Post-Intelligencer, Mar. 19, 2011)

March 11: Not a supermoon

(photo: EarthSky)

(new) Reuters: Obama woos Brazil while Libya air assault unfolds (Mar 20 2011) The U.S. is taking a keen interest in the deep-sea oil reserves that Brazil is starting to tap off the Rio coast.

(new) CNN: Libyan ruler defiant as airstrikes by coalitoion forces enter 2nd day (Mar 20 2011)
(new) iBankCoin: U.S. whores itself for Libyan oil reserves (Mar 19 2011)
Howard Lindzon: The Internet 'Black Swan' (Mar 19 2011)
Steve Blank: New rules for the new Internet bubble (Mar 18 2011)
Reuters: U.N. envoy sees military action after summit (Mar 18 2011)
Business Insider: Tepco says power line connected (Mar 18 2011)
Cain Thaler/iBankCoin: Long Uranium (Mar 18 2011)
EarthSky: Did a supermoon cause the March 11 earthquake in Japan (Mar 17 2011)
Dave Fry: Gadhafi does a head fake (Mar 18 2011)

(new) Rays of demolition
Le Fly noted that $56.9 million worth of missiles just landed in Libya. That makes Raytheon alluring. Since the Middle East madness began, RTN ran from 44 to its current range of 49-53. Maybe it opens at 54 on Monday morning.

Somebody's got to provide the weaponry

Silver Moon Madness?
I have to take a look at what happened in silver and EXK this week. I held EXK briefly on Wednesday, taking a very small loss as it stalled and slumped to 8.10. By Friday, EXK gapped up above 8.70 and closed at 9.15.

Silver futures pop through short-term resistance

EXK: Midweek consolidation? 

Gap up for EXK, but still in trading range

SLW's fall from the top may have finally leveled

Where does SLW go from here?

Best guess: sideways

Sour Apple

The long swings in AAPL have been massive to the upside, but the downside can seem almost as wild. 

Buy and hold? Not exactly

Buy and hold is not a great idea with AAPL at these levels. I've been in and out with moderate success over the years. Holding from 100 or 200 was great if you had the stomach for market turbulence. The past 10 days have been wickedly bad for longs. I got out a few weeks ago at 360 when rumors about Steve Jobs' health (i.e. a visit to the doctor) surfaced after hours. Since then, even with the launch of iPad 2, the stock has been bashed by hedge funds emptying out. Every gain during the past week was met by selling pressure, taking AAPL to 330 today. 

50-day moving average was violated this week.

Now the 100-day MA is being tested with 

200-day MA possibly next.

An 8-10% pullback from this level — another global crisis or worsening of situations in Libya or Japan — is possible. If the Steve Jobs resignation rumor is true, 10% down takes AAPL to 300, which is the next level of support. Difficult to see a plunge any lower than that, not with huge profit margins and the iPad 2 in heavy demand. Problem is, until the parts supply issue is solved (Japan), getting back to the high will happen later rather than sooner. Guess here is that best-case scenario (Jobs stays on as CEO) has AAPL trading between 326 (near-term support) and 360. Worse case: 300 to 326 until earnings (April 19). 

Because I'm easy come, easy go

12:39 pm (Hawaii). Little high. Little low.

A splendid night of sleep with moderately cool weather in Honolulu. Again, I couldn't stay up as the opening bell arrived (4:30 am). Dow Jones (+1%), Nasdaq (+0.7%) and S&P 400 (+0.9%) gave bulls a break from the erratic ups and downs, at least for Tuesday. Oil pulled back, stocks went up. Simple as that. Quadaffi is supposedly about to speak anytime in the next few minutes (hours?) from a hotel.

UCO traded lower (-1%) to 56.32 (afterhours). Silver took a small dip; EXK is down 3.9% to 9.80 AH. No surprise considering the incredible surge higher in the past week. Just a few weeks back, EXK was at 7.

NFLX took a big hit as news of potential streaming video on Facebook surfaced.

My favorites, AAPL and SLW, were relatively flat.

OK, now CNBC is saying Quadaffi left the hotel. Must not have liked the decor.

I remain 100% cash, in the rafters watching this game, binoculars at my side.

Tuesday reading
Zero Hedge: Charles Biderman on how the Fed continues to rig the market and why there will be a QE 3 and 4 (Mar 8 2011)
Chris Martenson via Zero Hedge: The Coming Rout (Mar 8 2011)

Energy from Thorium: China initiates Thorium MSR Project (Jan 30 2011)

Fantastical Friday

Gold up. Silver up. Oil up. Stocks up. Everything (almost) is up, and mostly up big with less than 20 minutes left in the session.

I haven't made a trade since Tuesday early morning (premarket). I don't feel satisfied, but I don't feel greedy, either. Good place. Still feeling the ailment, still achy and headachy and it sucks. When I woke up, the market was already 90 minutes in (almost 6 am Hawaii time) and everything was green. I've had some long naps since and there is simply an abundance of buyers and a shortage of sellers. Who would've figured that for a Friday. It's almost like a parallel universe, or an opposite world. Instead of the sell-into-strength tendencies of Fridays, it's almost a fantasy.

The first price that had my eyeballs boinging out of my cranium was UCO, which was listed at more than 300% up. I was drowsy when I saw that and immediately thought, 1) must be a typo, and 2) it's not a typo, so maybe Libya just got turned into dust. Holy crude! But no, it's a reverse split in UCO, the one I'd heard about earlier in the week. QID also did a reverse split.

But generally, the top of my watch list is ruled by silver entities. EXK (+5.1%), SLW (+5%), SLV (+4.1%), PAAS (+3.7%). AAPL, BIDU, other momo names like CMG and LULU all up roughly 1% or more. But on the red side, CSTR and NFLX can't get out of the hole. Even AMZN is fractionally down; as the No. 1 contender to usurp NFLX's throne in streaming movies, AMZN should be rolling today, right?

VXX and TVIX are the bottom of my list. Did they actually stop bombing unarmed protestors in Libya today. If so, how can oil stocks still be above water for the day. Weird. Fantastical. Everybody (but the shorts) is happy.

The only negative? Volume is low.