Ins and Outs

Well, well. There are now 12 stocks among my Top 25 that are trading below their simple moving averages. (One is very, very close.) Yesterday, only nine were on the radar.

Buys? Not necessarily. But worth exploring. 

1. AAPL 194.93 • 50-day SMA: 183.39 • Wait
2. GOOG 685.53 • 50-day SMA: 685.16 • Up just 14¢ on lower volume. Wait
3. RIMM 112.82 • 50-day SMA: 113.25 • Fair price, but mediocre volume says this is dead money near term
4. ISRG 321.75 • 50-day SMA: 313.94 • Wait
5. NTDOY.PK 74.55 • 50-day SMA: n/a • Recent 50-day was 73.13. Wait
6. POT 146.88 • 50-day SMA: 122.90 • Wait. It may take almost forever, but wait
7. CHL 85.44 • 50-day SMA: 90.13 • 100-day SMA: 81.52 • Up 79¢ on lower volume. Good price. Inch in and expect a better price
8. PTR 170.64 • 50-day SMA: 201.02 • 100-day SMA: 184.28 • 200-day SMA: 157.38 • Plunging on low volume. Great price. Inch in
9. FSLR 265.87 • 50-day SMA: 213.56 • Wait
10. MCD 57.93 • 50-day SMA: 58.58 • 100-day SMA: 55.05 • Fair price, great earnings, inch in 

11. STP 88.22 • 50-day SMA: 70.94 • 24% over its 50-day SMA. Ridiculous. Wait
12. CMG 141.70 • 50-day SMA: 135.77 • Wait
13. BIDU 375.09 • 50-day SMA: 367.28 • Sideways action since October. CFO's mysterious death doesn't help
14. FWLT 169.17 • 50-day SMA: 150.15 • Big gap up today (4.7%). Wait
15. FLS 96.15 • 50-day SMA: 91.43 • Traded seemingly forever in the 60s and 70s. Pricey now. Wait
16. FMCN 58.98 • 50-day SMA: 57.04 • Wait
17. GS 204.84 • 50-day SMA: 219.26 • 100-day SMA: 209.27 • 200-day SMA: 212.26 • Down 1.3% today. Great price, inch in
18. NKE 62.71 • 50-day SMA: 64.10 • 100-day SMA: 60.80 • Six down days in a row. Fair price, inch in
19. CEO 169.84 • 50-day SMA: 176.96 • 100-day SMA: 159.33 • Fair price, up 1.4% on increased volume
20. VMW 83.95 • 50-day SMA: 94.05 • Fair price, facing stiff competition long term. Inch in for near-term trade only

21. LULU 44.76 • 50-day SMA: 44.29 • Fair price, low volume. Long way from earnings, likely to fall more
22. MSFT 35.37 • 50-day SMA: 34.58 • Wait
23. AMZN 95.21 • 50-day SMA: 88.06 • Wait
24. EBAY 32.85 • 50-day SMA: 33.60 • 100-day SMA: 35.23 • 200-day SMA: 34.21 • Dysfunctional stock, crummy policing of ripoff sellers. PayPal is undeniably strong, though. Great price, horrible volume. Inch in for near-term trade
25. LFC 74.64 • 50-day SMA: 84.57 • 100-day SMA: 81.53 • 200-day SMA: 66.29 • Good price, down five sessions in a row. Inch in

Hoku rising high again

Woohoo, the Hoku Scientific bulls are on a rampage. HOKU up $1.71 on nice volume. Why?

> > > Honolulu Star-Bulletin: Hoku adjusts solar contract

The Kapolei-based alternative-energy technology developer is exercising the option under its contract with Solar-Fabrik AG after the German company did not meet a September deadline to provide additional financing for Hoku's planned polysilicon plant in Pocatello, Idaho.

Hoku also said yesterday it has received a six-week extension from Japan-based Sanyo Electric Co. Ltd. to complete financing for the plant. Under the contract amendment, either company may end the supply agreement if Hoku has not secured financing by Feb. 15.

Now, frankly, as someone who has no shares of HOKU, this news is a bit frightening. What if Solar-Fabrik AG doesn't come through? What if the financing for the plant isn't on time? Does $1.5 billion in contracts go poof? Always a lot of ifs with a promising power hitter like Hoku. For traders, HOKU has been a dream come true. I still like the stock as a speculative play, but only when it pulls back and gets cheap. As 2009 gets closer, this will continue to ride a wild roller coaster. The 50-day SMA is 9.40, and at 14.19, HOKU is back near all-time highs. Sustainable?

I'm still a big fan. Just not invested right now. HOKU is a completely news-driven stock, and when there's no news, it sells off and goes ker-plunk. I think this Co wins in the long run, which is why I will add a few shares when it gets cheap only. No news and lots of near-term uncertainty is what bargain hunters want.

About XMSR, chapter 2

I mentioned yesterday that a friend (I'll call him Cal) was intent on putting some of his hard-earned cash on XM Satellite Radio. Though the stock was technically in a good spot, trading below its moving averages, I cautioned him. Well, turns out he bought a few shares on Monday and as of Wednesday was up a buck. Happy about it, too.

I'll keep posting about XMSR, not because I think it's a good investment — with $1.5 billion in debt, how can it be? — but because it's always interesting to see how other people trade. Of course, the end result is also interesting. I hope Cal gets out with a profit every time. His target is 20. We shall see.

Pupule portfolio

I admit, though the Pupule portfolio is purely for paper trading, study and entertainment, I was rash to jump into four stocks without pyramiding in as I'd written before.

Here's what I did last week when those four stocks gave us some interesting entry points.

Weighted scale of $10,000 per stock
PTR • in $181.72 (55 shares) • 12/24/07
GS • in $214.32 (47 shares) • 12/24/07
CEO • in $167.22 (60 shares) • 12/24/07
LFC • in $80.70 (124 shares) • 12/24/07

Today, three of the four are down from these listed entry points (down a combined 3.4%), but long term, I would be satisfied. Today also provided two great entry points for China Mobile (trading below 50-day SMA) and eBay (trading below 50-, 100- and 200-day SMA), the latter of which is certainly for a near-term trade only. (eBay has too many security and credibility issues regarding ripoff sellers for me to consider it long term.)

CHL • in at $84.65 (12 shares) • 1/2/08
EBAY • in at $32.49 (30 shares) • 1/2/08

These buy points in GS and EBAY represent the first step in pyramiding, a 10% piece of the eventual position for each. Tomorrow, possibly, the next step of 20%.

Ins and Outs

Two sessions ago, eight of my favorite 25 stocks showed up on the radar. They had interesting prices. Not all necessarily had entry points to buy. After today's session, there are nine stocks on the radar.

based on closing prices, Jan. 2, 2007
1. AAPL 194 • 50-day SMA: 182 • Wait
2. GOOG 685 • 50-day SMA: 684 • 100-day SMA: 618 • Wait
3. RIMM 113.71 • 50-day SMA: 113.26 • 100-day SMA: 102 • Wait
4. ISRG 323 • 50-day SMA: 313 • Wait
5. NTDOY.PK 73.95 • 50-day SMA: 73.13 • 100-day SMA: 67 • Wait
6. POT 146 • 50-day SMA: 122 • Wait
7. CHL 84 • 50-day SMA: 90 • 100-day SMA: 81 • Good price, could get better • chart
8. PTR 173 • 50-day SMA: 202 • 100-day SMA: 183 • 200-day SMA: 157 • Very good price • chart
9. FSLR 267 • 50-day SMA: 210 • Wait
10. MCD 58.10 • 50-day SMA: 58.51 • 100-day SMA: 54.95 • Fair price, could be cheaper • chart
11. STP 85 • 50-day SMA: 70 • Wait
12. CMG 146 • 50-day SMA: 135 • Wait
13. BIDU 381 • 50-day SMA: 366 • Wait
14. FWLT 161 • 50-day SMA: 149 • Wait
15. FLS 94 • 50-day SMA: 91 • Wait
16. FMCN 57.13 • 50-day SMA: 56.96 • 100-day SMA: 52.50 • Wait
17. GS 207 • 50-day SMA: 219 • 100-day SMA: 209 • 200-day SMA: 212 • Great price, could get better • chart
18. NKE 63.28 • 50-day SMA: 64.11 • 100-day SMA: 60 • Fair price, could be cheaper • chart
19. CEO 167 • 50-day SMA: 177 • 100-day SMA: 158 • Good price, could get better • chart
20. VMW 84 • 50-day SMA: 94 • Good price, could get better • chart
21. LULU 44.82 • 50-day SMA: 44.55 • Wait
22. MSFT 35.22 • 50-day SMA: 34.48 • Wait
23. AMZN 96 • 50-day SMA: 87 • Wait
24. EBAY 32.49 • 50-day SMA: 33.67 • 100-day SMA: 35.26 • 200-day SMA: 34.20 • Great price for a short-term trade • chart
25. LFC 74 • 50-day SMA: 85 • 100-day SMA: 81 • 200-day SMA: 66 • Good price, could get better • chart

As always, the best approach when a good stock dips is to wade in rather than dive headfirst.

> > > Pyramiding into a stock

Do you like Apple?

Have I ever mentioned that I have no plans to sell my long shares of Apple? Yeah. I'm preaching to the choir, and the choir preaches to me.

Halpern: Apple a favorite for '08

About XMSR

A friend is wading into the waters. He's young enough that he can withstand pullbacks in the market, and he's entering with "play money" outside his retirement fund. I envy him and worry for him at the same time. Why?

He's interested in XM Satellite Radio. Hmm, I say. I have never wanted to buy this stock. All I know is that the future of this company is heavily dependent on the higher court's looming decision about the merger proposal with Sirius. Either way, how will XMSR survive with $1.5 billion in debt?

I asked my pal this question, and he seemed ambivalent about fundamentals. He's a big baseball fan, and XM's ties to Major League Baseball is all he focuses on. We went over some details, like the subscriber numbers, rate of growth, etc. I don't know if he was really listening. But with so many quality growth stocks, I would not venture into XMSR. If I were to step into a stock with large potential, it might be Hoku Scientific. Crocs has been beaten down to a pulp. lululemon athletica is only in the baby steps of its growth. All are risky as hell, but I'd be more comfortable there than in XMSR.

Of course, if XM and Sirius merge, there's the issue about hardware, and how to make it all compatible. But that's down the road. Anyone buying XMSR now, in the 12s, is rolling the dice. If I were bullish on XMSR, I'd wait until it dips under 11 again. Of course, there are bulls out there. Rick Aristotle Munarriz is among them.

Munarriz: XM and Sirius will beat the market in 2008, deal or no deal